Policy makers should prepare for major uncertainties in Medicaid enrollment, costs, and needs for physicians under health reform

The Affordable Care Act of 2010 will expand Medicaid to millions of Americans by 2014. How many enroll will greatly affect health care access, demand for clinicians, and the federal budget, yet the precision and validity of enrollment estimates made to date is unknown. We created a simulation model using two nationally representative data sets to determine the range of reasonable projections, estimating eligibility, participation, and population growth using prior research and our data. Our model predicted that the number of additional people enrolling in Medicaid under health reform may vary by more than 10?million, with a base-case estimate of 13.4?million and a possible range of 8.5?million to 22.4?million. Estimated federal spending for new Medicaid enrollees ranged from $34?billion to $98?billion annually, and we projected that 4,500-12,100 new physicians will be needed to care for new enrollees. In the end, Medicaid enrollment will be determined largely by the extent to which federal and state efforts encourage or discourage eligible people from enrolling. Yet our results indicate that policy makers should prepare to handle a broad range of contingencies and uncertainty in Medicaid expansion under health reform.     

Uninsured Veterans Who Will Need to Obtain Insurance Coverage Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act

Objectives. We examined the number and clinical needs of uninsured veterans, including those who will be eligible for the Medicaid expansion and health insurance exchanges in 2014.Methods. We analyzed weighted data for 8710 veterans from the 2010 National Survey of Veterans, classifying it by veterans’ age, income, household size, and insurance status.Results. Of 22 million veterans, about 7%, or more than 1.5 million, were uninsured and will need to obtain coverage by enrolling in US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) care or the Medicaid expansion or by participating in the health insurance exchanges. Of those uninsured, 55%, or more than 800 000, are likely eligible for the Medicaid expansion if states implement it. Compared with veterans with any health coverage, those who were uninsured were younger and more likely to be single, Black, and low income and to have been deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan.Conclusions. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is likely to have a considerable impact on uninsured veterans, which may have implications for the VA, the Medicaid expansion, and the health insurance exchanges.The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA)1 represents one of the most significant overhauls of the US health care system and is expected to affect millions of uninsured people across the country. Military veterans constitute a particularly important segment of the population because of their service to the country, access to US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care, and other special benefits after their service. However, little has been written on the potential impact of the ACA on the health and health care of veterans.2 Although the VA operates an integrated national health care system that offers free or low-cost services to eligible veterans, many veterans are not enrolled in VA health care, and some are ineligible. Enrollment in VA health care satisfies the ACA’s requirement for insurance coverage, but eligibility for VA health care is determined on the basis of a complex system of priorities, mostly based on service-connected disability, income, and age, and it generally requires a military service discharge that is other than dishonorable (i.e., honorable, general).One study estimated that only 13% (3.6 million) of veterans report receiving some or all of their health care at the VA, and the vast majority (> 20 million) receive no health care from the VA.3 Most veterans thus rely on non-VA health care and are covered by various private or other public forms of health insurance, including Medicare and Medicaid. A small, albeit important, minority of veterans have no health insurance coverage. Estimates based on data from 1987 to 2004 showed that 7.7% of veterans were uninsured (including having no VA coverage), which equates to nearly 1.8 million veterans and represents 4.7% of all uninsured US residents.4Lack of health insurance coverage is an important problem because it can hinder access to effective health care, including needed medical visits, preventive care, and other services, and it can ultimately lead to poor health, premature mortality, and high medical costs.5,6 Being uninsured is a growing problem in the United States that the ACA addresses by requiring virtually all legal US residents to have health insurance. The ACA includes various provisions to help US residents, including veterans, accomplish this.One major provision that is optional for states to implement is the expansion of Medicaid coverage to all individuals aged 18 to 65 years with incomes at or below 138% of the federal poverty level. Although not all states will implement this expansion, and the number of participating states is currently unknown, many poor, uninsured adults will be able to obtain Medicaid coverage in states that implement the Medicaid expansion. Uninsured adults who have incomes above the Medicaid expansion limit or who live in states that do not implement the Medicaid expansion will have to purchase health insurance and may participate in the health insurance exchanges.A second major provision of the ACA is the creation of health insurance exchanges in each state whereby individuals may purchase competitive health insurance plans that are eligible for federal subsidies, but those subsidies are only available to those with income above the federal poverty level. Both of these major ACA provisions are planned for implementation in 2014 and will introduce a variety of coverage options for US residents, including veterans.There has been little study of uninsured veterans and no study of the potential impact of the ACA on veterans in general. Moreover, most data that exist on veterans are based on VA data, which only contain information about veterans who use VA health services and do not include information about those who are uninsured or not covered by VA health care. However, 1 population-based study7 has provided some evidence that a substantial number of veterans are uninsured (particularly those younger than 65 years) and that many uninsured veterans are in poor health, often forego needed health care because of costs, and have equal or worse access to health care than other uninsured adults in the general population. As the country moves toward a new era of health care with the ACA and continues to engage in conflicts in the Middle East, the impact of the ACA on the health care of veterans needs to be considered.We used a recent nationally representative survey of veterans to (1) describe the proportion and characteristics of veterans who are currently uninsured because they will likely be required to obtain coverage under the ACA; (2) determine, among those who are uninsured, who will likely be eligible for the Medicaid expansion; and (3) compare the sociodemographic and health characteristics of those who are uninsured and likely eligible for Medicaid expansion (LEME), those who are uninsured and not LEME, and those who currently have health insurance coverage. The results provide information about the number and health characteristics of veterans who will likely be affected by different provisions of the ACA and inform planning efforts for the VA and states that implement the Medicaid expansion and health insurance exchanges.     

Health Insurance Status and Eligibility Among Patients who Seek Healthcare at a Free Clinic in the Affordable Care Act Era

Free clinics provide care to over 1.8 million people in the United States every year and are a valuable safety net for uninsured and underinsured patients. The Affordable Care Act has resulted in millions of newly insured Americans, yet there is continued demand for healthcare at free clinics. In this study, we assessed health insurance status and eligibility among 489 patients who visited a free clinic in 2016. Eighty-seven percent of patients seen were uninsured, 53.1% of whom were eligible for health insurance (Medicaid or subsidized insurance premiums). The majority of these patients completed health insurance applications at their visit with the help of a navigator. A majority of patients who were not eligible for health insurance lacked citizenship status. This study highlights that a significant number of patients who visit free clinics are eligible for health insurance, and that free clinics are important sites for health insurance navigation programs.     

Insurance coverage of special foods needed in the treatment of phenylketonuria.

Optimal medical management of phenylketonuria (PKU) requires the use of special low-phenylalanine foods for many years. For women with PKU, elevated maternal blood levels of phenylalanine even at conception can lead to fetal damage. Despite this need, private health insurance, Medicaid, and other public health programs often exclude the cost of these foods from their benefits. The New York State Department of Health conducted a survey of metabolic disorders treatment centers to elucidate the problems PKU patients have obtaining and paying for the special foods essential to their care. Payment for special foods was denied to nearly half of those with private health insurance policies and was covered for only 10 percent of Medicaid-eligibles. A public program for children with special health care needs covered these food costs in upstate New York but not in New York City. There is no program of assistance for adults who are not eligible for Medicaid and who do not have private insurance coverage of special foods. At present, many private health insurance policies and public programs do not cover the costs of low-phenylalanine foods other than infant formula. Payment for this essential part of the management of PKU should be mandated for all public programs for persons with chronic illnesses, public medical assistance (Medicaid) programs, and private health insurance. There is a need for a public program to assist adults with PKU who are not eligible for Medicaid and who do not have health insurance that covers these costs.     

Out-of-Pocket Costs and Insurance Coverage for Abortion in the United States

BackgroundSince 1976, federal Medicaid has excluded abortion care except in a small number of circumstances; 17 states provide this coverage using state Medicaid dollars. Since 2010, federal and state restrictions on insurance coverage for abortion have increased. This paper describes payment for abortion care before new restrictions among a sample of women receiving first and second trimester abortions.MethodsData are from the Turnaway Study, a study of women seeking abortion care at 30 facilities across the United States.FindingsTwo thirds received financial assistance, with those with pregnancies at later gestations more likely to receive assistance. Seven percent received funding from private insurance, 34% state Medicaid, and 29% other organizations. Median out-of-pocket costs when private insurance or Medicaid paid were $18 and $0. Median out-of-pocket cost for women for whom insurance or Medicaid did not pay was $575. For more than half, out-of-pocket costs were equivalent to more than one-third of monthly personal income; this was closer to two thirds among those receiving later abortions. One quarter who had private insurance had their abortion covered through insurance. Among women possibly eligible for Medicaid based on income and residence, more than one third received Medicaid coverage for the abortion. More than half reported cost as a reason for delay in obtaining an abortion. In a multivariate analysis, living in a state where Medicaid for abortion was available, having Medicaid or private insurance, being at a lower gestational age, and higher income were associated with lower odds of reporting cost as a reason for delay.ConclusionsOut-of-pocket costs for abortion care are substantial for many women, especially at later gestations. There are significant gaps in public and private insurance coverage for abortion.     

Expanding Medicaid coverage for pregnant women: estimates of the impact and cost

An estimated 361,000 pregnant women are expected to be newly eligible for Medicaid coverage when all states raise the income ceiling for such coverage to 100 percent of the federal poverty level by 1990, as Congress has mandated. According to a methodology for projecting the effects of recent congressional changes in the Medicaid program, about 64 percent of these women would be otherwise uninsured, at least for maternity care, and the rest would have some insurance, so Medicaid would be the payer of last resort. Congress has also given states the option to cover pregnant women with incomes from 100 to 185 percent of poverty. If all states were to do so, another 552,000 women would become eligible, 29 percent of whom would otherwise have no insurance coverage for maternity care. The estimate of newly eligible women with incomes below 185 percent of poverty represents 24 percent of the 3.8 million women who give birth in the United States each year. Under the 100-percent-of-poverty ceiling, the estimated number of poor women eligible for coverage ranges from 4,000 or fewer in 18 states and the District of Columbia to 41,000 in California and Texas. At 185 percent of poverty, the number ranges from 4,000 or fewer in 11 states and the District of Columbia to more than 90,000 in California and Texas. Eight states have already elected to extend Medicaid coverage to the 185-percent-of-poverty ceiling.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Children's health insurance programs: strategies for outreach and enrollment

In tandem with Medicaid, the State Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) could cover most of the 11 million uninsured children in the United States. Nearly half of children without insurance are eligible for existing Medicaid programs, and an estimated 4 million more will be eligible under new CHIP rules. The key to moving toward universal coverage for children is outreach--making sure that every child who qualifies for the programs gains access to them. This issue of States of Health discusses some of the most effective strategies for achieving that goal.     

Pennsylvania's medically uninsured population: findings from a statewide survey

Pennsylvania is currently considering legislative options to expand coverage and improve access to medical care for state residents who lack health insurance. Relevant data are presented from a telephone survey of 10,809 Pennsylvania households. Almost nine percent (8.5%) of the state's population lacks health insurance, representing over one million people. Those most likely to be uninsured are children and young adults, non-whites and the poor. A substantial number of poor people are not covered by the state's Medicaid program. The uninsured report poorer health status, more obstacled to receiving care and greater use of hospital services for primary care.     

From Medicaid to uninsured: drop-out among children in public insurance programs

OBJECTIVES: To estimate a national disenrollment rate among children in Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP); to determine what share of disenrollment is due to acquiring other insurance or losing eligibility; and to examine what demographic and policy factors make disenrollment more likely. DATA SOURCES: Insurance status, income, and demographics from the Current Population Survey (CPS) March Supplement (1998-2001); eligibility data from the National Governors Association; and policy data from the former Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA), state welfare offices, and previous research. STUDY DESIGN: The study used a nationally representative sample of 5,551 children in Medicaid or CHIP. The key outcomes were the percentage of children still enrolled 1 year later, and the share of disenrollees who became uninsured despite remaining eligible. Multivariate logistic regression was used to explore demographics and policies predictive of disenrollment. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: CPS data were extracted using the Census Bureau's Federal Electronic Research and Review Extraction Tool 1.0. Data analysis was performed using Stata 7 (Stata Corporation 2001). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Of the children enrolled in Medicaid or CHIP, 27.7 percent were no longer enrolled 12 months later. Of those, 45.4 percent dropped out despite apparently remaining eligible and having no other insurance--corresponding to 3.0 million children annually. Drop-out varied significantly across states. Children without siblings in public insurance were at a higher risk for drop-out. Children with more educated parents were more likely to leave Medicaid for private insurance or to lose Medicaid eligibility, while black children and infants were less likely to lose their eligibility. Decreased Medicaid provider reimbursement rates were strongly associated with drop-out, while Medicaid managed care increased the exodus to private insurance. CONCLUSIONS: Drop-out from Medicaid and CHIP is a significant policy concern and helps explain the persistence of uninsurance among millions of eligible children. Clinical encounters with providers appear to play a key role in preventing drop-out.     

Expanding public health insurance to parents: effects on children's coverage under Medicaid

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether expanding public health insurance coverage to parents leads to increases in Medicaid participation among children. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Study uses data from the 1997 and 1999 National Survey of America's Families. Insurance coverage of children eligible for Medicaid under the poverty-related expansions is analyzed. STUDY DESIGN: We conduct two analyses. In the first, we examine the cross-sectional difference regarding whether Medicaid participation is higher for children eligible for Medicaid under the poverty-related expansions when states expand public health insurance programs to cover their parents. In the second, we use a difference-in-difference approach to assess whether the expansion of the Medicaid program to cover parents in Massachusetts led to an increase in Medicaid coverage among children between 1997 and 1999 relative to changes that occurred in the rest of the nation. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: The analysis relies on a detailed Medicaid and SCHIP eligibility simulation model that identifies children surveyed on the NSAF who are eligible for Medicaid under the poverty-related expansions. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Children who reside in states that expanded public health insurance programs to parents participate in Medicaid at a rate that is 20 percentage points higher than of those who live in states with no expansions. The Massachusetts expansion in coverage to parents led to a 14 percentage point increase in Medicaid coverage among children due principally to reductions in uninsurance among already eligible children. CONCLUSIONS: Expanding public health insurance coverage to parents has benefits to children in the form of increased participation in Medicaid.     

Projecting the impact of the Affordable Care Act on California

The Affordable Care Act is the most fundamental legislative transformation of the US health care system in forty years. This analysis estimates that the act will provide health insurance for an additional 3.4 million people in California in 2016. This will mean that nearly 96 percent of documented residents of California under age sixty-five will be insured. Enrollment in Medi-Cal, the state's Medicaid program, is expected to increase by 1.7 million people, while 4.0 million people are expected to enroll in the state's planned new health insurance exchange. Employer-sponsored insurance and spending on health insurance will decline slightly. Low-income households will experience substantial financial benefits, but families at the highest income levels will pay more.     

The Care Span: Medicaid savings resulted when community health workers matched those with needs to home and community care

The Affordable Care Act of 2010 builds on earlier efforts to expand home and community-based alternatives to institutional long-term care. Identifying people living in the community who have unmet long-term care needs and who may be at risk for entering nursing homes may be crucial to these efforts. The Arkansas Community Connector Program used specially trained community health workers to identify such people in three disadvantaged counties and connect them to Medicaid home and community-based services. The result was a 23.8?percent average reduction in annual Medicaid spending per participant during the period 2005-08. Net three-year savings to the Arkansas Medicaid program equaled $2.619?million. Similar interventions may help other localities achieve cost-saving and equitable access to publicly funded long-term care options other than institutional care.     

Strengthening the free care safety net

For many of the estimated 43 million people in this country who have no health insurance, free care is often the only health care available. With competition forcing hospitals to cut costs, consumer advocates face new challenges as they seek to ensure that free care remains available to all who need it. This issue of States of Health explores the problems facing both consumers who rely on free care and those who provide that care. It highlights what some advocates and communities are doing to address those concerns.     

Paying for maternity care

The costs of prenatal care and the delivery of newborns are continuously increasing. In the 3 years since 1982 alone, the cost of a hospital delivery has increased approximately 40%. 40% of all births in the US are to women aged 18-24. These women compose the highest risk group for having complications of pregnancy. It is alarming that in 1984 more than 25% of these women had no form of insurance to cover the costs. Poor, minority, and unemployed women are most likely to lack coverage. The 3 basic types of coverage are individual or direct, employer's or indirect, and federal. Direct insurance is not always affordable and often provides incomplete coverage. Employer's insurance is often able to cover the costs of maternity care for many young women. However, a high rate of job turnover and the loss of a husband due to death or divorce excludes teenagers, widows, and divorcees from maintaining this type of indirect insurance. Federal insurance in the form of Medicaid has strict eligibility requirements. In nearly 1/2 the states one must be below the poverty level in order to be eligible, and the benefits vary among the states. In addition, many practitioners will not accept Medicaid as payment. The Aid to Families With Dependent Children is available in lieu of Medicaid, but only to single mothers who already have dependent children. The Maternal Child Health block grant is designed to equalize the differences in Medicaid eligibility among states and to give coverage to poor women who are ineligible for Medicaid. The individual states are allowed to allot the monies for this grant without qualifications for minimum services, with the result that it is unknown which women receive necessary services.     

The effects on employment and wages when working mothers lose Medicaid.

This study examines the importance of health insurance in promoting employment and wage growth for prime-age mothers. Many mothers on welfare and other low-income mothers are eligible for Medicaid, but as they move up the job ladder, they lose eligibility. Losing work supports limits mothers' ability to stay employed: mothers who make this transition into employer-provided health insurance are nine times more likely to stay employed than mothers who leave Medicaid without this benefit. However, few mothers make the transition from Medicaid to employer-provided health insurance--not because they lack employment but because they do not find jobs that offer health insurance. Between the beginning of 2002 and the end of 2003, 37.2 percent of those on Medicaid left the program, but fewer than a quarter (23.4 percent) of those had employer-provided health insurance.     

The impact of loss of Medicaid on health service utilization among persons with HIV/AIDS in New York City

OBJECTIVES: To examine predictors of losing Medicaid and the impact of losing Medicaid on health service utilization for persons living with HIV/AIDS. DESIGN: The data are from the Community Health Advisory and Information Network (CHAIN), an on-going longitudinal survey representative of adults with HIV/AIDS in NYC (N = 698) (1994-1997 data). Change of Medicaid coverage between survey waves was considered a "transition" yielding three groups: "no transition", "transition to insurance", and "transition to no insurance". METHODS: To determine predictors of transitions and the impact of transitions on health service utilization, multinomial logistic regression was used to compare the three groups. RESULTS: There were 114 transitions and 792 cases without transitions, with transitions decreasing over time. Thirty percent of transitions were from Medicaid to no insurance. Transitions to insurance were more likely among the employed and those with incomes over 15,000 US Dollar. Transitions to no insurance were more likely among AIDS cases, recent immigrants, and people less than 30-year-old. People in both transition groups were less likely than people who retained Medicaid to have experienced a life event in the pre-transition period. Those with transitions to insurance reported decreased hospital and drug treatment. People who became uninsured reported decreased use of routine and preventive care, decreased health information and advice and decreased use of private doctors and outpatient clinics. CONCLUSION: While the rate of transitions from Medicaid was relatively low, such transitions were associated with greater variability in quality of health care and greater difficulty accessing primary care among the uninsured.     

Dually eligible individuals with AIDS: characteristics and health services use

This paper explores the prevalence and health care utilization of dually eligible Medicare and Medicaid participants among New Jersey Medicaid recipients with AIDS using linked administrative data. Merged Medicaid claims and AIDS surveillance data were used to analyze participation in the Medicare program by Medicaid recipients in New Jersey diagnosed with AIDS who received services between January 1988 and March 1996. We found that nearly 30% of Medicaid participants had Medicare claims during the observation period, suggesting that Medicare is becoming an important payer of HIV care among individuals eligible for Medicaid. Traditionally disadvantaged groups such as women and racial minorities were less likely to be dually eligible for Medicare, reflecting differences in survival and in eligibility requirements for Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). Controlling for other characteristics, dually eligible individuals had shorter lengths of stay and had lower charges per inpatient stay than Medicaid only enrollees. Dual eligibles were also more likely to use antiretroviral (ARV) drugs and were more consistent users of ARV treatment measured by the proportion of time on ARV therapy. Our study suggests that persons with AIDS who may qualify for Medicare because of their disability are different than individuals who only received Medicaid reimbursed services in terms of their health care utilization. Further research is needed to determine the cause of such differences which may include socioeconomic differences between dual eligibles and Medicaid only eligibles, dissimilarities in health status between the two groups, and variation in aspects of insurance coverage particularly in the choice and reimbursement of office-based physicians.     

Insurance, income, and access to ambulatory care in King County, Washington.

OBJECTIVES. We studied simultaneous effects of income and insurance on access measures in an indigent population, focusing on Medicaid and the marginal effects of increasing income. METHODS. Surveys were distributed in waiting rooms of county clinics and welfare offices. Models examined insurance (private, Medicaid, or none), income (to twice the poverty level), single-parent status, age, gender, and presence of a regular source of care; first-order interactions were evaluated. RESULTS. In terms of ease of access, postponing care, and having a regular source of care, uninsured respondents fared worst and Medicaid recipients were at an intermediate level. However, relative to those with private insurance, Medicaid recipients had four times the odds, and uninsured respondents twice the odds of being denied care. Income had no consistent effect; however, older, poorer people may have greater problems. For preventive services, income was significant, while differences between Medicaid and private insurance were generally not significant. CONCLUSIONS. Except for denial of care, access for indigent people is improved by Medicaid but remains worse than the access of those with private insurance. Income had variable effects, but support for income criteria used for public insurance eligibility was not found.     

Better methods will be needed to project incomes to estimate eligibility for subsidies in health insurance exchanges

Under the Affordable Care Act, people who meet certain income eligibility criteria will be eligible for subsidies to offset costs of premiums and cost sharing for health insurance plans purchased through new health insurance exchanges. But determining the correct level of these subsidies will not be easy, because of several factors. These include the way in which eligibility will be calculated for participation in Medicaid or for subsidies through the exchanges; possibly inaccurate income projections; the use of different income time periods to determine eligibility; and fluctuations in income. I performed a simulation that shows that under the most likely methods to be used to determine eligibility for Medicaid or for receiving subsidies through exchanges, one-third of people with incomes initially judged to be below the Medicaid threshold would actually "churn" into an exchange at the end of the year. Other people would be wrongly deemed ineligible for advance subsidy payments because their projected income was too high, while still others judged eligible for subsidies would receive advance payments on those subsidies that were too high by $208 per year, on average. To reduce these errors, I recommend the adoption of a single eligibility standard based on income data derived from prior tax returns, along with generous accommodations during a given enrollment year for people who claim a change in circumstances, such as a change in income.     

There is little experience and limited data to support policy making on integrated care for dual eligibles

Coordinating care for the nine million elderly or disabled and low-income people who are dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid is a pressing policy issue. To support the debate over this issue, we synthesized public data on how services are provided to dual eligibles receiving covered benefits in both programs. Our analysis confirmed that most dual-eligible beneficiaries receive benefits separately for each program through fee-for-service arrangements. Their enrollment in Medicare and Medicaid managed care is growing but still low, with highly uneven experiences across states. Few states or health plans have experience with coordinating care for dual eligibles within an integrated plan. These findings reinforce the need for caution in considering policies that would rapidly give states the responsibility for coordinating dual eligibles' care and coverage. We also found data gaps that warrant prompt attention in order to provide national-level oversight and improve the evidence base for debating and tracking policy changes.