Development and Validation of a Nomogram Based on Perioperative Factors to Predict Post-hepatectomy Liver Failure

Background and AimsPost-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is a severe complication and main cause of death in patients undergoing hepatectomy. The aim of this study was to build a predictive model of PHLF in patients undergoing hepatectomy.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed patients undergoing hepatectomy at Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University from July 2015 to June 2018, and randomly divided them into development and internal validation cohorts. External validation was performed in an independent cohort. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (commonly referred to as LASSO) logistic regression was applied to identify predictors of PHLF, and multivariate binary logistic regression analysis was performed to establish the predictive model, which was visualized with a nomogram.ResultsA total of 492 eligible patients were analyzed. LASSO and multivariate analysis identified three preoperative variables, total bilirubin (p=0.001), international normalized ratio (p<0.001) and platelet count (p=0.004), and two intraoperative variables, extent of resection (p=0.002) and blood loss (p=0.004), as independent predictors of PHLF. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (referred to as AUROC) of the predictive model was 0.838 and outperformed the model for end-stage liver disease score, albumin-bilirubin score and platelet-albumin-bilirubin score (AUROCs: 0.723, 0.695 and 0.663, respectively; p<0.001 for all). The optimal cut-off value of the predictive model was 14.7. External validation showed the model could predict PHLF accurately and distinguish high-risk patients.ConclusionsPHLF can be accurately predicted by this model in patients undergoing hepatectomy, which may significantly contribute to the postoperative care of these patients.     

A Comprehensive Method for Predicting Fatal Liver Failure of Patients With Liver Cancer Resection

There are many methods to assess liver function, but none of them has been verified as fully effective. The purpose of this study is to establish a comprehensive method evaluating perioperative liver reserve function (LRF) in patients with primary liver cancer (PLC).In this study, 310 PLC patients who underwent liver resection were included. The cohort was divided into a training set (n = 235) and a validation set (n = 75). The factors affecting postoperative liver dysfunction (POLD) during preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative periods were confirmed by logistic regression analysis. The equation for calculating the preoperative liver functional evaluation index (PLFEI) was established; the cutoff value of PLFEI determined through analysis by receiver-operating characteristic curve was used to predict postoperative liver function.The data showed that body mass index, international normalized ratio, indocyanine green (ICG) retention rate at 15 minutes (ICGR15), ICG elimination rate, standard remnant liver volume (SRLV), operative bleeding volume (OBV), blood transfusion volume, and operative time were statistically different (all P < 0.05) between 2 groups of patients with and without POLD. The relationship among PLFEI, ICGR15, OBV, and SRLV is expressed as an equation of “PLFEI = 0.181 × ICGR15 + 0.001 × OBV − 0.008 × SRLV.” The cutoff value of PLFEI to predict POLD was −2.16 whose sensitivity and specificity were 90.3% and 73.5%, respectively. However, when predicting fatal liver failure (FLF), the cutoff value of PLFEI was switched to −1.97 whose sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 68.8%, respectively.PLFEI will be a more comprehensive, sensitive, and accurate index assessing perioperative LRF in liver cancer patients who receive liver resection. And keeping PLFEI <−1.97 is a safety margin for preventing FLF in PLC patients who underwent liver resection.     

A Prognostic Nomogram with High Accuracy Based on 2D-SWE in Patients with Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

Background and AimsAcute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is associated with very high mortality. Accurate prediction of prognosis is critical in navigating optimal treatment decisions to improve patient survival. This study was aimed to develop a new nomogram integrating two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) values with other independent prognostic factors to improve the precision of predicting ACLF patient outcomes.MethodsA total of 449 consecutive patients with ACLF were recruited and randomly allocated to a training cohort (n=315) or a test cohort (n=134). 2D-SWE values, conventional ultrasound features, laboratory tests, and other clinical characteristics were included in univariate and multivariate analysis. Factors with prognostic value were then used to construct a novel prognostic nomogram. Receiver operating curves (ROCs) were generated to evaluate and compare the performance of the novel and published models including the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD combined with sodium (MELD-Na), and Jin’s model. The model was validated in a prospective cohort (n=102).ResultsA ACLF prognostic nomogram was developed with independent prognostic factors, including 2D-SWE, age, total bilirubin (TB), neutrophils (Neu), and the international normalized ratio (INR). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.849 for the new model in the training cohort and 0.861 in the prospective validation cohort, which were significantly greater than those for MELD (0.758), MELD-Na (0.750), and Jin’s model (0.777, all p <0.05). Calibration curve analysis revealed good agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities. The new nomogram had superior overall net benefit and clinical utility.ConclusionsWe established and validated a 2D-SWE-based noninvasive nomogram to predict the prognosis of ACLF patients that was more accurate than other prognostic models.     

Predictive Value of Preoperative Serum Cholinesterase Concentration in Patients with Liver Dysfunction Undergoing Cardiac Surgery

Abstract Objective There are an increasing number of patients with severe liver dysfunction subjected to open heart surgery. This retrospective study was designed to assess operative results and clarify the degree of liver injury in patients with liver dysfunction undergoing open heart surgery. In addition, determinants influencing their prognosis were assessed. Methods In a 9-year period from 1988 to 1996, we operated on 31 patients with posthepatitis liver dysfunction and 16 with chronic passive congestion of the liver. This group was 2.3% and 1.6% of the 1368 patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the same period. We compared several perioperative factors between survivors and nonsurvivors to determine risk factors affecting mortality. Results In the group with posthepatitis liver dysfunction, the postoperative course of 5 patients among 31 (16.1%) was poor. Serum cholinesterase concentration was lower only in the nonsurvivor group (nonsurvivor vs survivor: 1979 ± 949 vs 3515 ± 1424 lU/l, p < 0.05). All patients with cholinesterase < 2000 IU/L died. The duration of CPB (212 ± 53 vs 150 ± 54 minutes, p < 0.03) and ACC time (151 ± 38 vs 96 2 40 minutes, p < 0.02) was longer in the nonsurvivor group. In the group with chronic passive congestion, the postoperative course of 5 of 16 (31.3%) patients with valvular disease was poor. Serum cholinesterase concentration was lower only in the nonsurvivor group (nonsurvivor vs survivors: 2006 ± 435 vs 3483 ± 1442 IU/L, p < 0.021, and all patients with cholinesterase < 2000 IU/L died. Postoperative bleeding was greater in the nonsurvivor group (3327 ± 2106 vs 1428 ± 643 mL, p < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis including the described pre- and intraoperative factors identified only serum cholinesterase concentration (F = 9.18) as significant. Conclusions A low value of preoperative serum cholinesterase (< 2,000 IU/L) is thought to be the predictor of prognosis after open heart surgery in patients with severe posthepatitis and congestive liver dysfunction. operative factors (cardiopulmonary time in posthepatitis liver dysfunction and postoperative bleeding in the congestive liver dysfunction) also influenced the prognosis.     

Prognostic Nomogram for Patients with Hepatitis E Virus-related Acute Liver Failure: A Multicenter Study in China

Background and AimsTimely and effective assessment scoring systems for predicting the mortality of patients with hepatitis E virus-related acute liver failure (HEV-ALF) are urgently needed. The present study aimed to establish an effective nomogram for predicting the mortality of HEV-ALF patients.MethodsThe nomogram was based on a cross-sectional set of 404 HEV-ALF patients who were identified and enrolled from a cohort of 650 patients with liver failure. To compare the performance with that of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring and CLIF-Consortium-acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C-ACLFs) models, we assessed the predictive accuracy of the nomogram using the concordance index (C-index), and its discriminative ability using time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (td-ROC) analysis, respectively.ResultsMultivariate logistic regression analysis of the development set carried out to predict mortality revealed that γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, total bilirubin, urea nitrogen, creatinine, international normalized ratio, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were independent factors, all of which were incorporated into the new nomogram to predict the mortality of HEV-ALF patients. The area under the curve of this nomogram for mortality prediction was 0.671 (95% confidence interval: 0.602–0.740), which was higher than that of the MELD and CLIF-C-ACLFs models. Moreover, the td-ROC and decision curves analysis showed that both discriminative ability and threshold probabilities of the nomogram were superior to those of the MELD and CLIF-C-ACLFs models. A similar trend was observed in the validation set.ConclusionsThe novel nomogram is an accurate and efficient mortality prediction method for HEV-ALF patients.     

Liver Stiffness Reflecting Right-Sided Filling Pressure Can Predict Adverse Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure

ObjectivesThis study sought to investigate whether elevated liver stiffness (LS) values at discharge reflect residual liver congestion and are associated with worse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF).BackgroundTransient elastography is a newly developed, noninvasive method for assessing LS, which can be highly reflective of right-sided filling pressure associated with passive liver congestion in patients with HF.MethodsLS values were determined for 171 hospitalized patients with HF before discharge using a Fibroscan device.ResultsThe median LS value was 5.6 kPa (interquartile range: 4.4 to 8.1 kPa; range 2.4 to 39.7 kPa) and that of right-sided filling pressure, which was estimated based on LS, was 5.7 mm Hg (interquartile range: 4.1 to 8.2 mm Hg; range 0.1 to 18.9 mm Hg). The patients in the highest LS tertile (>6.9 kPa, corresponding to an estimated right-sided filling pressure of >7.1 mm Hg) had advanced New York Heart Association functional class, high prevalence of jugular venous distention and moderate/severe tricuspid regurgitation, large inferior vena cava (IVC) diameter, low hemoglobin and hematocrit levels, high serum direct bilirubin level, and a similar left ventricular ejection fraction compared with the lower tertiles. During follow-up periods (median: 203 days), 8 (5%) deaths and 33 (19%) hospitalizations for HF were observed. The patients in the highest LS group had a significantly higher mortality rate and HF rehospitalization (hazard ratio: 3.57; 95% confidence interval: 1.93 to 6.83; p < 0.001) compared with the other tertiles. Although LS correlated with IVC diameter and serum direct bilirubin and brain natriuretic peptide levels, LS values were predictive of worse outcomes, even after adjustment for these indices.ConclusionsThese data suggest that LS is a useful index for assessing systemic volume status and predicting the severity of HF, and that the presence of liver congestion at discharge is associated with worse outcomes in patients with HF.     

Complications of Liver Resection in Geriatric Patients

Introduction and aimsLiver resection is the treatment of choice for many primary and secondary liver diseases. Most studies in the elderly have reported resection of primary and secondary liver tumors, especially hepatocellular carcinoma and colorectal meta-static cancer. However, over the last two decades, hepatectomy has become safe and is now performed in the older population, implying a paradigm shift in the approach to these patients.Material and MethodsWe retrospectively evaluated the risk factors for postoperative complications in patients over 65 years of age in comparison with those under 65 years of age after liver resection (n = 360). The set comprised 127 patients older than 65 years (35%) and 233 patients younger than 65 years (65%).ResultsIn patients younger than 65 years, there was a significantly higher incidence of benign liver tumors (P = 0.0073); in those older than 65 years, there was a significantly higher incidence of metastasis of colorectal carcinoma to the liver (0.0058). In patients older than 65 years, there were significantly more postoperative cardiovascular complications (P = 0.0028). Applying multivariate analysis, we did not identify any independent risk factors for postoperative complications. The 12-month survival was not significantly different (younger versus older patients), and the 5-year survival was significantly worse in older patients (P = 0.0454).ConclusionIn the case of liver resection, age should not be a contraindication. An individualized approach to the patient and multidisciplinary postoperative care are the important issues.     

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for 90-day Outcome in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure

Background and AimsIt is challenging to predict the 90-day outcomes of patients infected with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) via prevailing predictive models. This study aimed to develop an innovative model to enhance the analytical efficacy of 90-day mortality in HBV-ACLF.MethodsIn this study, 149 HBV-ACLF patients were evaluated by constructing a death risk prediction nomogram. Bootstrap resampling and an independent validation cohort comprising 31 patients from June 2019 to February 2020 were assessed for model confirmation.ResultsThe nomogram was constructed by entering and identifying five factors (age, total bilirubin, prothrombin activity (PTA), lymphocyte (L)%, and monocyte (M)%. Healthy refinement was achieved from the nomogram analysis, where the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.864 for the training cohort and 0.874 was achieved for the validation cohort. There was admirable concordance between the predicted and true results in the equilibrium curve. The decision curve assessment revealed the useful clinical application of the nomogram.ConclusionsWe constructed an innovative nomogram and validated it for the prediction of 90-day HBV-ACLF patient outcomes. This model might help develop optimized treatment protocol recommendations for HBV-ACLF patients.