我国医疗卫生支出对期望寿命影响的因果分析研究

目的 探究我国医疗卫生支出对期望寿命的影响及其之间的因果关系。方法 利用世界银行给出的中国人口数据,使用R语言对该数据进行协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验,分析我国医疗卫生支出与期望寿命之间的因果关系。结果 本研究发现我国期望寿命与公共卫生医疗支出存在正向的长期均衡关系（回归系数=0.490,t值=19.10,P<0.001）,与人口自然增长率（回归系数=-0.035,t值=-11.38,P<0.001）、人均医疗卫生支出（回归系数=-5.01,t值=-17.91,P<0.001）则存在反向的长期均衡关系。人口自然增长率（P=0.007）、公共卫生医疗支出（P<0.001）和人均医疗卫生支出（P<0.001）均是期望寿命的原因,但不存在互为因果关系。结论 医疗卫生支出的提高推动了期望寿命的提高,而人口自然增长率和人均医疗卫生支出的对期望寿命提高作用不大。     

Health care expenditure and life expectancy in Australia: how well do we perform?

Abstract: The Australian health care system consists of mixed public and private financing underpinned by Medicare, a universal government-run insurance scheme paid through taxation (and levy) on income. Australia has improved its ranking for life expectancy (at birth) since 1960, and in 1990 ranked ninth and seventh of 24 countries for females and males respectively; this is ahead of the United States and United Kingdom, and approximately equal to Canada. Australian hospital bed supply and utilisation are average, after deletion of day-only cases. The proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) spent on health, in relation to GDP per capita (adjusted for purchasing power), in Australia in 1990 was average, and the prices for health care from 1975 to 1990 did not increase when adjusted for inflation. Although 68 per cent of health expenditure emanates from public sources in Australia, this is lower than in the majority of European countries and Canada. Some countries are doing poorly (such as the United States, with lower than average life expectancy and higher than predicted health expenditure) and some countries are doing well (with higher than average life expectancy and lower than predicted health expenditure; for example, Japan). Australia has higher than average life expectancy and only slightly higher than predicted health expenditure per capita. Although the Australian system could be improved, there are no indications that radical changes are required. The relatively high life expectancy in Australia can be attributed to favourable social and economic conditions, successful public health programs, and the availability of universal quality health care.     

Ageing and health care expenditure in EU-15

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between ageing and the evolution of health care expenditure per capita in the EU-15 countries. A secondary purpose is to produce estimates that can be used in projections of future health care costs. Explanatory variables include economic, social, demographic and institutional variables as well as variables related to capacity and production technology in the health care sector. The study applies a co-integrated panel data regression approach to derive short-run relationships and furthermore reports long-run relationships between health care expenditure and the explanatory variables. Our findings suggest that there is a positive short-run effect of ageing on health care expenditure, but that the long-run effect of ageing is approximately zero. We find life expectancy to be a more important driver. Although the short-run effect of life expectancy on expenditure is approximately zero, we find that the long-run effect is positive, so that increasing life expectancy leads to a more than proportional, i.e. exponential, increase in health care expenditure.     

医疗卫生费用与居民健康水平的相关研究

目的：了解全国各地区人均医疗卫生费用的分布差异,分析医疗卫生费用充足区域和不足区域居民的健康水平与医疗卫生费用的关系,为我国医疗卫生费用的合理投入提供政策依据。方法整理统计年鉴的相关数据,采用相关和线性回归的分析方法,对人均医疗卫生费用和居民健康水平进行分析。结果总体上,人均医疗卫生费用与期望寿命和死亡率的回归系数分别为0．353和－0．457,但在医疗卫生费用充足区域,医疗卫生费用对死亡率和期望寿命的回归系数无统计学意义（P＞0．05）;而在卫生费用不足区域,医疗卫生费用与死亡率和期望寿命的回归系数为0．320和－0．589。结论医疗卫生费用的持续增长并不能带来居民健康水平的持续显著性的提高,当人均医疗卫生费用达到一定程度,增加医疗卫生费用对居民健康状况没有显著影响。     

Is technology still a major driver of health expenditure in the United States? Evidence from cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks

Using a longer span of available time series data and employing powerful unit root and cointegration tests that allow for multiple structural breaks, developed recently by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (Econ Theory 25:1754–1792, 2009), Perron and Yabu (J Bus Econ Stat 27:369–396, 2009), Kejriwal and Perron (J Econ 146(1):59–73, 2008; J Bus Econ Stat 28(4):503–522, 2010a; J Time Ser Anal 31:305–328, 2010b) and Maki (Econ Model 29:2011–2015, 2012), this paper empirically investigates, whether technology continues to be a major driver of real per capita health expenditure, along with some control variables such as per capita income and life expectancy, in the United States, during the period 1960–2012. Specifically, the paper applies the most recent cointegration tests under multiple structural breaks and extends the work of Okunade (J Health Econ 21(1):147–159, 2002) with the possibility whether a linear cointegration model with multiple structural breaks would provide a better economic model to quantify the impact of some major determinants of US real per capita health expenditure. This paper presents evidence to show that per capita real income, technology as indicated by four proxy measures and life expectancy at birth are some major drivers of real per capita health expenditure in the United States. Contrary to the available evidence in the literature, the finding of this paper is that the point aggregate income elasticity of health expenditure estimate is less than one, indicating that health care has evolved to become a necessity in the United States. Policy implications of the empirical findings are discussed in the paper.     

Terminal costs, improved life expectancy and future public health expenditure

This paper presents an empirical analysis of public health expenditure on individuals in Denmark. The analysis separates out the individual effects of age and proximity to death (reflecting terminal costs of dying) and employs unique micro data from the period 2000 to 2009, covering a random sample of 10% of the Danish population. Health expenditure includes treatment in hospitals, subsidies to prescribed medication and health care provided by general practitioners and specialists and covers about 80% of public health care expenditure on individuals. The results confirm findings from previous studies showing that proximity to death has a significant impact on health care expenditure. However, it is also found that cohort effects (the baby boom generation) as well as improvements in life expectancy have a substantial effect on future health care expenditure even when proximity to death is controlled for. These results are obtained by combining the empirical estimates with a long term population forecast. When life expectancy increases, terminal costs are postponed but the increases in health expenditure that follow from longer life expectancy are not as large as the increase in the number of elderly persons would suggest (due to “healthy ageing”). Based on the empirical estimates, healthy ageing is expected to reduce the impact of increased life expectancy on real health expenditure by 50% compared to a situation without healthy ageing.     

农村人均卫生费用的影响因素研究

文章运用EViews统计分析软件对中国农村人均卫生费用的影响因素进行回归分析,研究发现新型农村合作医疗保险制度的实施没有改变农村居民家庭人均纯收入和65岁及以上老年人口占总人口比率与中国农村人均卫生费用的相关关系,但是每千人口卫生技术人员数与农村人均卫生费用由原先的负相关关系变为正相关关系。     

中国人均预期寿命时空变化及影响因素分析

运用变异系数和灰色关联分析法,对中国人均预期寿命时空变化特征及影响因素的强度进行研究。结果表明:(1) 1981—2015年,我国人均预期寿命增长经历了慢—快—慢—快的四个阶段,预期寿命增长指数上升到113,其中男性上升到111,女性上升到115,男女预期寿命差距逐步增大。(2) 1990—2010年,全国31个省份人均预期寿命变异系数从0. 051降低到0. 036,预期寿命水平较低省份的增长速度明显高于较高的省份。(3)我国人均预期寿命的地域分布大体上分为东南部高预期寿命水平区、中北部中预期寿命水平区、西南部低预期寿命水平区。2010年我国人均预期寿命水平绝大多数省份处于第二级(76～80岁)和第三级(71～75岁),相对于1990年提高了两级。到2020年,我国将有北京、天津和上海3市处于第一级寿命水平(81～85岁),其余为第二和第三级预期寿命水平。影响我国省际人均预期寿命时空差异的因素是多方面的,其中最主要的是各地区的经济发展、医疗服务和医疗保障水平。     

2000-2018年我国城乡居民医疗保健支出公平性变化研究

目的:了解我国城乡及地区间医疗保健支出现状及差异性,分析我国城乡居民医疗保健支出的公平性,为我国医药卫生体制改革提供科学参考。方法:收集2000—2018年城乡医疗保健支出、人均可支配收入及人均纯收入等相关数据,采用集中指数和集中曲线对我国城乡医疗保健支出进行公平性分析。结果:2010—2018年城镇居民人均医疗保健支出(实际值)年平均增长速度为3.55%,农村居民人均医疗保健支出(实际值)年平均增长速度为10.00%。2000—2017年我国城镇居民人均医疗保健支出集中指数呈下降趋势,其中2006年出现最大值为0.1332,除2015—2017年外,其余年份差异均具有统计学意义(P<0.05);2000—2017年我国农村居民人均医疗保健支出集中指数呈下降趋势,2004年出现最大值为0.2522,差异均具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论:我国城乡人均医疗保健支出逐年增加,全国和各地区城乡人均医疗保健支出差距较大。我国城乡人均医疗保健支出存在不公平性,城镇人均医疗保健支出优于农村人均医疗保健支出,公平性逐渐趋好。     

Has the relation between income inequality and life expectancy disappeared? Evidence from Italy and top industrialised countries

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relation between income inequality and life expectancy in Italy and across wealthy nations. DESIGN AND SETTING: Measure correlation between income inequality and life expectancy at birth within Italy and across the top 21 wealthy countries. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to study these relations. Multivariate linear regression was used to measure the association between income inequality and life expectancy at birth adjusting for per capita income, education, and/or per capita gross domestic product. DATA SOURCES: Data on the Gini coefficient (income inequality), life expectancy at birth, per capita income, and educational attainment for Italy came from the surveys on Italian household on income and wealth 1995-2000 and the National Institute of Statistics information system. Data for industrialised nations were taken from the United Nations Development Program's human development indicators database 2003. RESULTS: In Italy, income inequality (beta = -0.433; p<0.001) and educational attainment (beta = 0.306; p<0.001) were independently associated with life expectancy, but per capita income was not (beta = 0.121; p>0.05). In cross national analyses, income inequality had a strong negative correlation with life expectancy at birth (r = -0.864; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In Italy, a country where health care and education are universally available, and with a strong social safety net, income inequality had an independent and more powerful effect on life expectancy at birth than did per capita income and educational attainment. Italy had a moderately high degree of income inequality and an average life expectancy compared with other wealthy countries. The cross national analyses showed that the relation between income inequality and population health has not disappeared.     

我国卫生总费用筹资的结构性特征与人均可支配收入的比较分析

本文依据我国2003—2015年卫生总费用的基础数据,比较新医改前后卫生总费用筹资的结构性特征与人均可支配收入的变化,分析了新医改前后卫生总费用筹资的总体水平、筹资结构变化的合理性、总体发展趋势的可持续性及其与人均可支配收入的发展变动特征。研究发现,新医改之后我国卫生总费用增长率虽有所下降,但个人卫生支出增长率仍呈上升趋势,政府医疗保障支出的增长对个人卫生支出的替代水平有限,人均个人卫生支出增长率超过城乡居民人均收入增长率,"看病贵"问题仍然非常突出。针对以上问题,本文提出加快公立医院改革,强化医保基金专业化建设,提高医保基金控费能力等建议。     

A crossectional country group study of three health level outcomes and four potential causes.

A crossectional study of four country groups segmented by per capita income of the majority of the world's countries was made to evaluate the relationship between health level outcomes and potential causes which may impact on the health level outcomes. The health level outcomes consist of life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rate and child mortality rate. The potential causes consist of secondary school children per 100 in school age group, daily calory supply per capita, population per physician and population per nurse. For the two lower income country groups the two important determinants of life expectancy were daily calory supply per capita and secondary school children per 100 in school age group. For the upper middle income the country group the important positive determinant of life expectancy was population per nurse and for the upper income country group the important negative determinant of life expectancy was daily calory supply per capita. Infant and child mortality rates were associated with secondary school children per 100 in school age group and population per physician or population per nurse for the two lower income country groups. For the upper middle income country group population per nurse or population per physician was supplemented by daily calory supply per capita for both infant and child mortality. For the upper income country group only infant mortality had statistically significant determinants. They were daily calory supply per capita and secondary school children per 100 in school age groups.     

Income inequality,illiteracy rate,and life expectancy in Brazil

OBJECTIVES: The link between income disparities and health has been studied mostly in developed nations. This study assesses the relationship between income disparities and life expectancy in Brazil and measures the impact of illiteracy rates on the association. METHODS: The units of analysis (n = 27) are all the Brazilian states and the federal capital. Simple and multiple linear regressions were performed to measure the association between income disparity, measured by the Gini coefficient, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and illiteracy rate. Data came from publicly available sources at the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. RESULTS: Income disparities and illiteracy rates were negatively associated with life expectancy in Brazil. GDP per capita was positively associated with life expectancy. The inclusion of illiteracy rates in the regression model removed the effect of income disparities. CONCLUSIONS: Illiteracy rate is strongly associated with life expectancy in Brazil. This finding is in accord with reports from the United States and has implications for health policy and planning for both developed and developing countries.     

Evolving Health Expenditure Landscape of the BRICS Nations and Projections to 2025

Global health spending share of low/middle income countries continues its long‐term growth. BRICS nations remain to be major drivers of such change since 1990s. Governmental, private and out‐of‐pocket health expenditures were analyzed based on WHO sources. Medium‐term projections of national health spending to 2025 were provided based on macroeconomic budgetary excess growth model. In terms of per capita spending Russia was highest in 2013. India's health expenditure did not match overall economic growth and fell to slightly less than 4% of GDP. Up to 2025 China will achieve highest excess growth rate of 2% and increase its GDP% spent on health care from 5.4% in 2012 to 6.6% in 2025. Russia's spending will remain highest among BRICS in absolute per capita terms reaching net gain from $1523 PPP in 2012 to $2214 PPP in 2025. In spite of BRICS' diversity, all countries were able to significantly increase their investments in health care. The major setback was bold rise in out‐of‐pocket spending. Most of BRICS' growing share of global medical spending was heavily attributable to the overachievement of People's Republic of China. Such trend is highly likely to continue beyond 2025. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

State health care expenditures under competition and regulation, 1980 through 1991.

OBJECTIVES. This paper examines health expenditure growth under two alternative policy approaches: competition-based managed care and state government rate regulation. METHODS. Data are presented on cumulative growth in real per capita health expenditures between 1980 and 1991 so as to compare California, a state with a pro-competitive policy, with the US average and with four states with established regulation programs. RESULTS. Real per capita expenditures for hospital services in the United States grew 54% between 1980 and 1991, while in California the growth was half the national rate, or 27%. Real per capita expenditures for physician services and drug expenditures in the United States grew by 82% and 65%, respectively, while in California these expenditures increased only 58% and 41%, respectively. California's growth rate was below that of all four regulatory states for all measures of health care cost inflation. CONCLUSIONS. On the basis of these findings, a properly structured competitive approach could play a significant role in controlling health expenditures in the United States.     

经济增长背景下政府与个人卫生支出划分的国际经验与中国现状

目的：促进我国政府与个人卫生费用支出分担比例的合理化.方法：以世界卫生组织100多个成员国的数据为基础,采用回归分析方法,探寻经济发展水平与卫生支出以及政府与个人卫生支出分担比例的发展规律.结果：从世界范围来看,人均卫生总费用和人均政府卫生支出的需求收入弹性均大于1,人均个人卫生支出的需求收入弹性小于1.2000-2010年,中国人均卫生总费用、人均政府卫生支出的实际值都始终低于回归预测值.结论：“十二五”期间人均财政卫生支出的增长速度应达到10.2％左右,人均个人卫生支出的增长速度应达到7％.     

Health care spending growth: how different is the United States from the rest of the OECD?

This paper compares the long-term (1970-2002) rates of real growth in health spending per capita in the United States and a group of high-income countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Real health spending growth is decomposed into population aging, overall economic growth, and excess growth. Although rates of aging and overall economic growth were similar, annual excess growth was much higher in the United States (2.0 percent) versus the OECD countries studied (1.1 percent). That difference, which is of an economically important magnitude, suggests that country-specific institutional factors might contribute to long-term health spending trends.     

Determinants of expenditure variation in health care and care of the elderly among finnish municipalities

In Finland, municipal health care expenditure varies from FIM 3 800 per capita to FIM 7 800 per capita. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of different economic, structural and demographic factors on the per capita costs of health services and care of the elderly. Using regression analysis we attempted to explain observed differences in expenditure by determining separately the effects of allocative and productive inefficiency and the effects of factors influencing the demand for services. We found income level of local population, generosity of central government matching grant, allocative efficiency (the mix of care between institutional and non-institutional care), productive efficiency of service providers, and factors associated with the need of services (age structure, morbidity) to be the most important determinants of health care expenditure. Our results reveal that municipalities have the means at their disposal (by shifting resources to outpatient care and increasing productivity) to significantly reduce expenditure on health services and care of the elderly.     

Tests of stationarity and cointegration of health care expenditure and gross domestic product

This study examines the long-run relationship among the per capita private, public, and total health care expenditure and per capita gross domestic product and population growth of Turkey. We find some evidence of multivariate cointegrating relationships among the health care expenditure and gross domestic product, and population growth. We further find a bivariate cointegrating relationship between private health care expenditure and per capita gross domestic product. Accordingly, a 10% increase in gross domestic product would translate into a 21.9% increase in total health care expenditure while controlling population growth. The income elasticity of health expenditure is found to be greater than 1, implying that health care is a luxury good in Turkey. Finally we note that there exists one-way causality running from per capita gross domestic product to various definitions of health care expenses.