Physician impact on hospital admission and on mortality rates in the Medicare population.

OBJECTIVE. We assess the effect of variations in the supply and specialty distribution of physicians on admission rates for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACS) and for all causes, and on mortality rates among Medicare beneficiaries of various health care service areas (HCSA). DATA SOURCES. For the Medicare beneficiaries, sources were the Health Care Financing Administration's 1992 enrollment and impatient (Part A) files for a 5 percent sample of that population; for the overall populations and for the medical resources of the HCSAs, the Area Resource File. STUDY DESIGN. This observational, cross-sectional study employed multiple linear regression to assess the influence of population characteristics and of the supply of physicians on hospital admissions, and Poisson regression in the analysis of the factors that affect mortality. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Physician supply levels vary nearly fourfold or more when comparing the top and bottom deciles of the HCSAs, Medicare admissions for ACS conditions vary about threefold, and admission rates for all causes and mortality rates vary about 1.5-fold. Physician supply levels and distributions have very little influence on ACS admission rates, and even less on the admissions for all causes and on mortality, except in HCSAs with very low physician supply levels (one-fourth the national average or less). However, these HCSAs account for only about 1 percent of the U.S. population. CONCLUSIONS. Physician supply levels and the proportions of specialists and generalists have negligible effects on health status as measured by mortality rates and by rates of admission for all causes and for conditions presumed to be sensitive to the adequacy of ambulatory care. Reductions in admissions for such conditions are not likely to be achieved through broadening of insurance to levels that exist under Medicare, nor through increases in the supply of physicians, nor, conversely, through a reduction in any presumed oversupply of physicians.     

The systematic assessment of variations in medical practices and their outcomes.

The Health Care Financing Administration of the Department of Health and Human Services has carried out for several years the systematic assessment of variations over time and among geographic locales in patterns of care and patterns of outcomes experienced by Medicare beneficiaries. This routine monitoring focuses principally on hospitalizations and their outcomes (death and readmission) and is based on the Medicare enrollment file and the claims file for inpatient care. The period 1985-88 has been marked by declining adjusted post-admission risks for mortality (down 4 percent) and readmission (down 6 percent) for Medicare beneficiaries. The downward trend in mortality risks is most evident following hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction (down 8 percent) and stroke (down 12 percent). Hospital admission and population mortality rates, adjusted for differences in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the populations, vary substantially among areas as large as States and Metropolitan Statistical Areas, as do risk-adjusted post admission probabilities of death among those areas and among hospitals. Thus, if overall admission and mortality rates in the upper three quartiles of Metropolitan Statistical Areas were brought down to the average of the lowest quartile, there would be 20 percent fewer admissions and 12 percent fewer deaths within 180 days of admission for hospitalized patients. Although favorable trends in the effectiveness of the hospital care received by Medicare beneficiaries appear discernible, the existence of substantial variations suggests that further improvement may be possible.     

Effect of Medicare advantage payments on dually eligible Medicare beneficiaries

This study estimates the effect of Medicare Advantage (MA) payments and State Medicaid policies on the choice by Medicaid eligible Medicare beneficiaries to either join a MA plan, remain in the fee-for-service (FFS) and enroll in Medicaid (dually enrolled), or remain in FFS Medicare without joining Medicaid. Individual plan choice was modeled using a multinomial logit. The sample includes Medicaid-eligible Medicare beneficiaries (including specified low income Medicare beneficiaries [SLMBs] and qualified Medicare beneficiaries [QMBs]) drawn from the 2000 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS). We find a $10 increase in monthly MA payment reduces the probability of dual enrollment by four percentage points, and FFS Medicare enrollment by 11 percentage points.     

Capitation pricing: adjusting for prior utilization and physician discretion.

As the number of Medicare beneficiaries receiving care under at-risk capitation arrangements increases, the method for setting payment rates will come under increasing scrutiny. A number of modifications to the current adjusted average per capita cost (AAPCC) methodology have been proposed, including an adjustment for prior utilization. In this article, we propose use of a utilization adjustment that includes only hospitalizations involving low or moderate physician discretion in the decision to hospitalize. This modification avoids discrimination against capitated systems that prevent certain discretionary admissions. The model also explains more of the variance in per capita expenditures than does the current AAPCC.     

Does Medicaid coverage of Medicare cost sharing affect physician care for dual‐eligible Medicare beneficiaries?

ObjectiveTo assess changes in physicians’ provision of care to duals (low‐income individuals with Medicare and Medicaid) in response to a policy that required Medicaid to fully pay Medicare''s cost sharing for office visits with these patients. This policy—a provision of the Affordable Care Act—effectively increased payments for office visits with duals by 0%‐20%, depending on the state, in 2013 and 2014.Data SourcesFee‐for‐service claims for a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries in 2010‐2016.Study DesignWe conducted a difference‐in‐differences analysis to compare changes in office visits among Qualified Medicare Beneficiaries (QMBs)—the largest subpopulation of duals for whom payment rates were affected by this policy—to changes among other low‐income Medicare beneficiaries for whom payment rates were unaffected (pooled across all states). Next, we conducted a triple‐differences analysis that compared changes between QMBs and other low‐income beneficiaries in 33 states with payment rate increases of approximately 20% to analogous changes in 14 states without payment increases.Data CollectionThe study included administrative Medicare enrollment and claims data for QMBs and a comparison group of other low‐income Medicare beneficiaries (1 914 073 beneficiary‐years from 2010 to 2016).Principal FindingsNationally, we did not find a differential increase in office visits among QMBs versus other low‐income beneficiaries that coincided with this payment change. In the triple‐differences analysis, we did not observe a greater increase in visits among QMBs vs other low‐income beneficiaries in states where the policy resulted in large (approximately 20%) increases in payment rates vs states where payment rates were unaffected (triple‐differences estimate: −0.12 annual visits, 95% CI: −0.28, 0.04; P = 0.15).ConclusionsPhysicians’ provision of care to low‐income Medicare beneficiaries may not be responsive to short‐run payment changes.     

Medicare physician payment reform: its effect on access to care

This study analyzed a specific indicator condition, congestive heart failure (CHF), to see if there is evidence that physician payment reform (PPR) has had an effect on access to care for Medicare beneficiaries. If there was a decrease in access to ambulatory care services associated with PPR, one would expect to see an increase in hospitalizations for CHF in the period after PPR was implemented This analysis examined the trend in rates of hospitalization for CHF for the overall Medicare population and for selected vulnerable subgroups. No significant discontinuity was found in hospitalizations for CHF with the implementation of PPR.     

How Successful Is Medicare Advantage?

Context

Medicare Part C, or Medicare Advantage (MA), now almost 30 years old, has generally been viewed as a policy disappointment. Enrollment has vacillated but has never come close to the penetration of managed care plans in the commercial insurance market or in Medicaid, and because of payment policy decisions and selection, the MA program is viewed as having added to cost rather than saving funds for the Medicare program. Recent changes in Medicare policy, including improved risk adjustment, however, may have changed this picture.

Methods

This article summarizes findings from our group''s work evaluating MA''s recent performance and investigating payment options for improving its performance even more. We studied the behavior of both beneficiaries and plans, as well as the effects of Medicare policy.

Findings

Beneficiaries make “mistakes” in their choice of MA plan options that can be explained by behavioral economics. Few beneficiaries make an active choice after they enroll in Medicare. The high prevalence of “zero-premium” plans signals inefficiency in plan design and in the market''s functioning. That is, Medicare premium policies interfere with economically efficient choices. The adverse selection problem, in which healthier, lower-cost beneficiaries tend to join MA, appears much diminished. The available measures, while limited, suggest that, on average, MA plans offer care of equal or higher quality and for less cost than traditional Medicare (TM). In counties, greater MA penetration appears to improve TM''s performance.

Conclusions

Medicare policies regarding lock-in provisions and risk adjustment that were adopted in the mid-2000s have mitigated the adverse selection problem previously plaguing MA. On average, MA plans appear to offer higher value than TM, and positive spillovers from MA into TM imply that reimbursement should not necessarily be neutral. Policy changes in Medicare that reform the way that beneficiaries are charged for MA plan membership are warranted to move more beneficiaries into MA.     

Post-Acute Care in Inpatient Rehabilitation Facilities Between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage Plans Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

ObjectivesCompare post-acute care (PAC) utilization and outcomes in inpatient rehabilitation facilities (IRF) between beneficiaries covered by Traditional Medicare (TM) and Medicare Advantage (MA) plans during the COVID-19 pandemic relative to the previous year.DesignThis multiyear cross-sectional study used Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility–Patient Assessment Instrument (IRF-PAI) data to assess PAC delivery from January 2019 to December 2020.Setting and ParticipantsInpatient rehabilitation for stroke, hip fracture, joint replacement, and cardiac and pulmonary conditions among Medicare beneficiaries 65 years or older.MethodsPatient-level multivariate regression models with difference-in-differences approach were used to compare TM and MA plans in length of stay (LOS), payment per episode, functional improvements, and discharge locations.ResultsA total of 271,188 patients were analyzed [women (57.1%), mean (SD) age 77.8 (0.06) years], among whom 138,277 were admitted for stroke, 68,488 hip fracture, 19,020 joint replacement, and 35,334 cardiac and 10,069 pulmonary conditions. Before the pandemic, MA beneficiaries had longer LOS (+0.22 days; 95% CI: 0.15–0.29), lower payment per episode (−$361.05; 95% CI: −573.38 to −148.72), more discharges to home with a home health agency (HHA) (48.9% vs 46.6%), and less to a skilled nursing facility (SNF) (15.7% vs 20.2%) than TM beneficiaries. During the pandemic, both plan types had shorter LOS (−0.68 day; 95% CI: 0.54–0.84), higher payment (+$798; 95% CI: 558–1036), increased discharges to home with an HHA (52.8% vs 46.6%), and decreased discharges to an SNF (14.5% vs 20.2%) than before. Differences between TM and MA beneficiaries in these outcomes became smaller and less significant. All results were adjusted for beneficiary and facility characteristics.Conclusions and ImplicationsAlthough the COVID-19 pandemic affected PAC delivery in IRF in the same directions for both TM and MA plans, the timing, time duration, and magnitude of the impacts were different across measures and admission conditions. Differences between the 2 plan types shrank and performance across all dimensions became more comparable over time.     

Risk-adjustment system for the Medicare capitated ESRD program

Medicare is the principal payer for medical services for those in the U.S. population suffering from end-stage renal disease (ESRD). By law, beneficiaries diagnosed with ESRD may not subsequently enroll in Medicare Advantage (MA) plans, however, the potential benefits of managed care for this population have stimulated interest in changing the law and developing demonstration plans. We describe a new risk-adjustment system developed for Medicare to pay for ESRD beneficiaries in managed care plans. The model improves on current payment methodology by adjusting payments for treatment status and comorbidities.     

Decreasing invasive pneumococcal disease in the elderly: a state-level analysis

Evidence has accumulated supporting the relationship between the use of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in children and a decline in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in the elderly. We conducted a state-level analysis of vaccination coverage rates among children 19-35 months of age and IPD hospitalization rates among elderly Medicare beneficiaries. Simple correlations were suggestive of a negative relationship. Multivariate analysis using a state fixed-effect model which helped control for the time invariant factors at the state level also indicated a negative relationship, and it was statistically significant, p = 0.035. The relationship between the use of 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) and IPD hospitalizations was not statistically significant using either method.     

Favorable Selection,Risk Adjustment,and the Medicare Advantage Program

Objectives

To examine the effects of changes in payment and risk adjustment on (1) the annual enrollment and switching behavior of Medicare Advantage (MA) beneficiaries, and (2) the relative costliness of MA enrollees and disenrollees.

Data

From 1999 through 2008 national Medicare claims data from the 5 percent longitudinal sample of Parts A and B expenditures.

Study Design

Retrospective, fixed effects regression analysis of July enrollment and year-long switching into and out of MA. Similar regression analysis of the costliness of those switching into (out of) MA in the 6 months prior to enrollment (after disenrollment) relative to nonswitchers in the same county over the same period.

Findings

Payment generosity and more sophisticated risk adjustment were associated with substantial increases in MA enrollment and decreases in disenrollment. Claims experience of those newly switching into MA was not affected by any of the policy reforms, but disenrollment became increasingly concentrated among high-cost beneficiaries.

Conclusions

Enrollment is very sensitive to payment levels. The use of more sophisticated risk adjustment did not alter favorable selection into MA, but it did affect the costliness of disenrollees.     

Insurance status and access to primary health care:disparate outcomes for potentially preventable hospitalization

This study examines associations between hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) conditions and insurance status for working age adults, and for people age 65 and older. ACS hospitalization is a recognized indicator of access to primary care. Using data from the 1997 U.S. Nationwide Inpatient Sample and the U.S. Census, we calculate population-based rates of ACS hospitalization. We also use the 1997 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to calculate the prevalence of ACS conditions in the groups studied. Among working age adults, those receiving Medicaid and the uninsured had higher ACS hospitalization rates than insured individuals, even after adjusting for the prevalence of ACS conditions. Among Medicare beneficiaries, those who also received Medicaid benefits had higher ACS hospitalization rates than others, again after adjusting for the prevalence of ACS conditions; those with private insurance supplementing Medicare had lower ACS hospitalization rates.     

Medicare managed care and primary care quality: examining racial/ethnic effects across states

The study assesses the role of Medicare Advantage (MA) plans in providing quality primary care in comparison to FFS Medicare in three states, New York, California, Florida, across three racial ethnic groups. The performance is measured in terms of providing better quality primary care, as defined by lowering the risks of preventable hospital admissions. Using 2004 hospital discharge data (HCUP-SID) of Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality for three states, a multivariate cross sectional design is used with individual admission as the unit of analysis. The study found that MA plans were associated with lower preventable hospitalizations relative to marker admissions. The benefit also spilled over to different racial and ethnic subgroups and in some states, e.g. CA and FL, MA enrollment was associated with significantly lower odds of minority admissions than of white admissions. These results may indicate a potentially favorable role of MA plans in attenuating racial/ethnic inequalities in primary care in some states.     

The Impact of the Affordable Care Act on Medicare Advantage Plan Availability and Enrollment

Objective

To assess the impact of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act''s (ACA) changes in Medicare Advantage (MA) payment rates on the availability of and enrollment in MA plans.

Data Sources

Secondary data on MA plan offerings, contract offerings, and enrollment by state and county, in 2010–2011.

Study Design

We estimated regression models of the change in the number of plans, the number of contracts, and enrollment as a function of quartiles of FFS spending and pre-ACA MA payment generosity. Counties in the lowest quartile of spending are treated most generously by the ACA.

Principal Findings

Relative to counties in the highest quartile of spending, the number of plans in counties in the first, second, and third quartiles rose by 12 percent, 7.6 percent, and 5.4 percent, respectively. Counties with more generous MA payment rates before the ACA lost significantly more plans. We did not find a similar impact on the change in contracts or enrollment.

Conclusions

The ACA-induced MA payment changes reduced the number of plan choices available for Medicare beneficiaries, but they have yet affected enrollment patterns.     

Use of Post-Acute Care by Medicare Beneficiaries With a Diagnosis of Dementia

ObjectivesHospitalized patients with dementia transitioning to post-acute care may be particularly vulnerable to changes in post-acute care utilization driven by payment reforms; however, use of post-acute care in this population is incompletely understood. We sought to describe post-acute care utilization in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) and from home health (HH) agencies among Medicare beneficiaries with a diagnosis of dementia.DesignRetrospective, observational study using 100% sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2013 to 2016.Setting and ParticipantsWe identified hospitalizations and diagnoses using Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR), SNF stays using the Minimum Data Set, HH episodes using the Outcome and Assessment Information Set, and dementia diagnoses using the Medicare Beneficiary Summary File Chronic Conditions segment.MethodsWe calculated overall utilization and trends in post-acute care use over time, stratified by dementia diagnosis, type of post-acute care (SNF vs HH), and payer (fee-for-service vs Medicare Advantage).ResultsOf the 9,762,208 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries who received post-acute care from 2013 to 2016, 3,155,560 (32.3%) carried a diagnosis of dementia. Rates of post-acute care use were similar over time. More beneficiaries with a diagnosis of dementia received post-acute care (44.2% vs 27.7%) and proportionally more SNF care (71.7% vs 49.6%). Overall use and trends were similar in the Medicare Advantage population.Conclusions and ImplicationsOne-third of all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries receiving post-acute care have a diagnosis of dementia, and more than 7 in 10 receive this care in an SNF. These findings serve as a foundation for needed evaluations of how best to meet the post-hospital needs of older adults with dementia.     

Enrollee health status under Medicare risk contracts: an analysis of mortality rates.

Previous studies comparing the health status of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled under HMO risk contracts to that of Medicare beneficiaries in fee-for-service (FFS) have generally focused on demonstration projects conducted before 1985. This study examines mortality rates in 1987 for approximately 1 million aged Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in 108 HMOs. We estimated adjusted mortality ratios (AMR) for each HMO and across all HMOs, by dividing the actual number of deaths among HMO enrollees by the "expected" number of deaths. The expected number of deaths was based on death rates among local FFS populations, adjusting for age, sex, Medicaid buy-in status, and institutional status. The AMR for all HMO enrollees pooled together was 0.80. For persons newly enrolled in 1987, the AMR was 0.69; in general, AMRs were higher for beneficiaries who had been enrolled for longer periods of time. Among individual HMOs, none exhibited an AMR substantially above 1.00. Regression analysis indicated lower AMRs for staff model HMOs than for either IPA or group models. Low mortality among Medicare HMO enrollees is consistent with favorable selection or with improvements in the health status of enrollees due to better access or quality of care in HMOs. In either case, health status differences between HMO enrollees and FFS beneficiaries have implications for the appropriateness of Medicare's Adjusted Average Per Capita Cost (AAPCC) payment formula for HMOs.     

Long‐Term Impact of Medicare Payment Reductions on Patient Outcomes

Objective

To examine the long-term impact of Medicare payment reductions on patient outcomes for Medicare acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients.

Data Sources

Analysis of secondary data compiled from 100 percent Medicare Provider Analysis and Review between 1995 and 2005, Medicare hospital cost reports, Inpatient Prospective Payment System Payment Impact Files, American Hospital Association annual surveys, InterStudy, Area Resource Files, and County Business Patterns.

Study Design

We used a natural experiment—the Balanced Budget Act (BBA) of 1997—as an instrument to predict cumulative Medicare revenue loss due solely to the BBA, and basing on the predicted loss categorized hospitals into small, moderate, or large payment-cut groups and followed Medicare AMI patient outcomes in these hospitals over an 11-year panel between 1995 and 2005.

Principal Findings

We found that while Medicare AMI mortality trends remained similar across hospitals between pre-BBA and initial-BBA periods, hospitals facing large payment cuts saw smaller improvement in mortality rates relative to that of hospitals facing small cuts in the post-BBA period. Part of the relatively higher AMI mortalities among large-cut hospitals might be related to reductions in staffing levels and operating costs, and a small part might be due to patient selection.

Conclusions

We found evidence that hospitals facing large Medicare payment cuts as a result of BBA of 1997 were associated with deteriorating patient outcomes in the long run. Medicare payment reductions may have an unintended consequence of widening the gap in quality across hospitals.     

Ambulatory Care Sensitive Hospitalization Rates in the Aged Medicare Population in Utah, 1990 to 1994: A Rural-Urban Comparison

The objective of this study is to compare the likelihood of hospitalization for conditions that are related to the adequacy and use of ambulatory health care services for Medicare beneficiaries residing in rural and urban regions in Utah. The Health Care Financing Administration's (HCFA) hospital discharge database (Utah hospitals: 1990 to 1994) was used to estimate hospitalization rates (with adjustment for out-of-state admissions) for ambulatory care sensitive conditions. Population estimates were obtained from HCFA beneficiary files. Regional hospitalization rates were obtained through ZIP code matching of the hospital discharge and beneficiary files. Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older residing in Utah during 1990 to 1994 are the subjects for the study. The main outcome measures include age and sex-adjusted hospitalization rates by region for the entire state and rate ratio estimates for nonurban regions. The results of the study show that Medicare beneficiaries residing in two rural-frontier regions were more likely than urban beneficiaries to be hospitalized for ambulatory care sensitive conditions. Rate ratio estimates were greater than 1.4 for both regions during the study period. These findings suggest a pattern of an increased burden of avoidable secondary complications and disease progression among Utah Medicare beneficiaries residing in some rural regions. This increased burden may be the result of limitations in the ambulatory care system, medical care provider supply, and/or beneficiary propensity to seek care. Variation in disease prevalence or hospital use patterns for these conditions also may be responsible for all or part of the observed variation in ambulatory care sensitive admission rates.