BMI,Waist Circumference and All-Cause Mortality in a Middle-Aged and Elderly Chinese Population

Objective

To investigate the association of obesity and all-cause mortality in a sample of middle-aged and elderly population.

Design and Setting

Information of participants was collected in the Dongfeng-Tongji study, a perspective cohort study of Chinese occupational population. The main outcome was risk of death after 8.5 years of follow-up.

Participants and measurements

We examined the association of BMI, waist circumference (WC, and waist–height ratio (WHtR) with all-cause mortality in the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort study (n=26,143). Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all-cause mortality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves and net reclassification improvement (NRI) were used to calculate the power of prediction models.

Results

During a mean of 8.5 years of follow-up, 2,246 deaths were identified. There is a U-shaped association of BMI with all-cause mortality in the middle-aged and elderly Chinese population. Compared with individuals with normal BMI, underweight was positively (HR=2.16, 95% CI: 1.73, 2.69) while overweight (HR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.67, 0.84) and obesity (HR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.79) were negatively associated with all-cause mortality after adjustment for potential confounders including WC. In contrast, WC (Q5 vs. Q1, HR=1.55, 95% CI: 1.29, 1.86) and WHtR (Q5 vs.Q1, HR=1.69, 95% CI: 1.40, 2.04) were positively associated with mortality after further adjustment for BMI (P trend < 0.001). Addition of both BMI and WC into the all-cause mortality predictive model significantly increased AUC (P =0.0002) and NRI (NRI = 2.57%, P = 0.0007).

Conclusions

BMI and WC/WHtR were independently associated with all-cause mortality after mutual adjustment. Combination of BMI and WC/WHtR improved the predictive ability of all-cause mortality risk in the middle-aged and elderly population.

     

Waist circumference and mortality

The authors examined the association between waist circumference and mortality among 154,776 men and 90,757 women aged 51-72 years at baseline (1996-1997) in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. Additionally, the combined effects of waist circumference and body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) were examined. All-cause mortality was assessed over 9 years of follow-up (1996-2005). After adjustment for BMI and other covariates, a large waist circumference (fifth quintile vs. second) was associated with an approximately 25% increased mortality risk (men: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.22, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15, 1.29; women: HR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.16, 1.41). The waist circumference-mortality association was found in persons with and without prevalent disease, in smokers and nonsmokers, and across different racial/ethnic groups (non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians). Compared with subjects with a combination of normal BMI (18.5-<25) and normal waist circumference, those in the normal-BMI group with a large waist circumference (men: > or =102 cm; women: > or =88 cm) had an approximately 20% higher mortality risk (men: HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.39; women: HR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.36). The finding that persons with a normal BMI but a large waist circumference had a higher mortality risk in this study suggests that increased waist circumference should be considered a risk factor for mortality, in addition to BMI.     

Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Dementia Incidence in Northern Sweden: A Longitudinal Study

Background

Exposure to ambient air pollution is suspected to cause cognitive effects, but a prospective cohort is needed to study exposure to air pollution at the home address and the incidence of dementia.

Objectives

We aimed to assess the association between long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and dementia incidence in a major city in northern Sweden.

Methods

Data on dementia incidence over a 15-year period were obtained from the longitudinal Betula study. Traffic air pollution exposure was assessed using a land-use regression model with a spatial resolution of 50 m × 50 m. Annual mean nitrogen oxide levels at the residential address of the participants at baseline (the start of follow-up) were used as markers for long-term exposure to air pollution.

Results

Out of 1,806 participants at baseline, 191 were diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease during follow-up, and 111 were diagnosed with vascular dementia. Participants in the group with the highest exposure were more likely than those in the group with the lowest exposure to be diagnosed with dementia (Alzheimer’s disease or vascular dementia), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.43 (95% CI: 0.998, 2.05 for the highest vs. the lowest quartile). The estimates were similar for Alzheimer’s disease (HR 1.38) and vascular dementia (HR 1.47). The HR for dementia associated with the third quartile versus the lowest quartile was 1.48 (95% CI: 1.03, 2.11). A subanalysis that excluded a younger sample that had been retested after only 5 years of follow-up suggested stronger associations with exposure than were present in the full cohort (HR = 1.71; 95% CI: 1.08, 2.73 for the highest vs. the lowest quartile).

Conclusions

If the associations we observed are causal, then air pollution from traffic might be an important risk factor for vascular dementia and Alzheimer’s disease.

Citation

Oudin A, Forsberg B, Nordin Adolfsson A, Lind N, Modig L, Nordin M, Nordin S, Adolfsson R, Nilsson LG. 2016. Traffic-related air pollution and dementia incidence in northern Sweden: a longitudinal study. Environ Health Perspect 124:306–312; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408322     

The association between physical activity and dementia in an elderly population: the Rotterdam Study

Several studies have associated physical activity with the risk of dementia, but mostly did so during short follow-up. It remains unclear whether physical activity also affects dementia during longer follow-up. We examined the association between physical activity and risk of dementia during a follow-up period up to 14 years. From 1997 to 1999, physical activity was assessed using a validated questionnaire in 4,406 elderly persons (age range 61–97) from the prospective, population-based Rotterdam Study. Follow-up for dementia was complete until January 1, 2011. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between physical activity and incident dementia. Next, we stratified follow-up time using a cut-off of 4 years. We separately investigated dementia due to Alzheimer disease. During 38,631 person-years, 583 participants developed dementia. When adjusting for age and sex, we found a borderline significant association between higher physical activity and lower risk of dementia (HR 0.95; 95 % CI 0.87–1.04). This association was confined to follow-up up to 4 years (HR 0.82; 95 % CI 0.71–0.95), and not to follow-up of at least 4 years (HR 1.04; 95 % CI 0.93–1.16). Additional adjustments only slightly attenuated the associations. A similar pattern was present for Alzheimer disease. We found a higher level of physical activity to be associated with a lower risk of dementia. This association was confined to follow-up for up to 4 years and not to longer follow-up, suggesting either a role for reverse causality or only a short term effect of late-life physical activity in an elderly population.     

Predicting cause-specific mortality of older men living in the veterans home by handgrip strength and walking speed: a 3-year, prospective cohort study in Taiwan

ObjectiveTo determine prognostic value of handgrip strength (HGS) and walking speed (WS) in predicting the cause-specific mortality for older men.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingBanciao Veterans Care Home.Participants558 residents aged 75 years and older.MeasurementsAnthropometric data, lifestyle factors, comorbid conditions, biomarkers, HGS, and WS at recruitment; all-cause and cause-specific mortality at 3 years after recruitment.ResultsDuring the study period, 99 participants died and the baseline HGS and WS were significantly lower than survivors (P both <.001). Cox survival analysis showed that subjects with slowest quartile of WS were at significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 3.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.69–7.43; HR 11.55, 95% CI 2.30–58.04, respectively), whereas the lowest quartile of HGS significantly predicted a higher risk of infection-related death (HR 5.53, 95% CI 1.09–28.09). Participants in the high-risk status with slowest quartile for WS but not those in the high-risk status with weakest quartile for HGS had similar high risk of all-cause mortality with the group with combined high-risk status (HR 2.96, 95% CI 1.68–5.23; HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.45–4.60, respectively) compared with the participants without high-risk status (reference group).ConclusionsSlow WS predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, whereas weak HGS predicted a higher risk of infection-related death among elderly, institutionalized men in Taiwan. Combining HGS with WS simultaneously had no better prognostic value than using WS only in predicting all-cause mortality.     

Initial BMI and Weight Loss over Time Predict Mortality in Parkinson Disease

ObjectivesAlthough weight loss is a frequent symptom in Parkinson disease (PD), there have been few studies on the association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between BMI and change in BMI at diagnosis in patients with PD and all-cause mortality.DesignCohort study using Korean National Health Insurance Service–Elderly Cohort data.Setting and ParticipantsPatients with new-onset PD were selected using the International Classification of Diseases 10th edition code (G20). Then, patients who were diagnosed more than 3 times with PD and had been prescribed anti-parkinsonian medication for ≥30 days were included. Those with a combined diagnosis of atypical parkinsonism and secondary parkinsonism were excluded.MethodsThe primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Anthropometric data, including height and weight, were obtained from the health screening data to calculate BMI. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess mortality risk by BMI.ResultsAmong the 2703 patients with PD, 492 (18.20%) died during the 11-year follow-up period. There was a significant inverse dose-response relationship between baseline BMI and mortality [<18.5 kg/m²: hazard ratio (HR), 1.872, 95% CI, 1.338–2.494; 23–25 kg/m²: HR, 0.695, 95% CI, 0.546–0.886; 25–30 kg/m²: HR, 0.644, 95% CI, 0.476–0.869; ≥30 kg/m²: HR, 0.396, 95% CI, 0.165–0.950]. Change in BMI of 10% revealed a significant association with mortality. Subgroup analyses by sex showed a significant inverse dose-response relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality only in women.Conclusions and ImplicationsWe demonstrated an inverse dose-response association between BMI at diagnosis and mortality in patients with PD, especially in women. Early detection of PD before weight loss progression and proper management might improve mortality. The small number of obese PD participants in our study should be considered when interpreting and generalizing results.     

Impact of obesity on influenza compared to pneumonia hospitalization outcomes

ObjectivesPrevious literature has suggested that obesity impacts mortality risk differently in bacterial versus viral infections. This study sought to further elucidate this association in pneumonia versus influenza.DesignRetrospective cohort study.Setting and participantsData were collected from the US Nationwide Readmission Database from 2013 to 2014.MethodsPatients were categorized into three weight groups: normal weight (BMI 18.5–25.0 kg/m²), obese (BMI 30–40.0 kg/m²), and morbidly obese (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m²). To minimize confounding, we excluded patients with a history of smoking, alcoholism, or chronic wasting conditions, as suggested by the Global BMI Mortality Collaboration. To further isolate obesity from baseline differences across cohorts, we performed a three-way propensity matching analysis. The association between body weight and in-hospital all-cause 30-day mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis.Results132,965 influenza and 34,177 pneumonia hospitalizations were identified. For patients with influenza, obesity (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.01–2.26) and morbid obesity (HR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.10–2.44) were associated with higher in-hospital 30-day mortality compared to normal weight. For pneumonia, obesity (HR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.20–0.84) and morbid obesity (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.25–0.96) were associated with reduced 30-day mortality compared to normal weight.Conclusions and implicationsObesity may increase 30-day mortality risk during influenza hospitalization but provide mortality benefit in pneumonia, a divergent effect not adequately explained by lower admission threshold.     

Information Processing Speed and 8-Year Mortality Among Community-Dwelling Elderly Japanese

Background

Cognitive function is an important contributor to health among elderly adults. One reliable measure of cognitive functioning is information processing speed, which can predict incident dementia and is longitudinally related to the incidence of functional dependence. Few studies have examined the association between information processing speed and mortality. This 8-year prospective cohort study design with mortality surveillance examined the longitudinal relationship between information processing speed and all-cause mortality among community-dwelling elderly Japanese.

Methods

A total of 440 men and 371 women aged 70 years or older participated in this study. The Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST) was used to assess information processing speed. DSST score was used as an independent variable, and age, sex, education level, depressive symptoms, chronic disease, sensory deficit, instrumental activities of daily living, walking speed, and cognitive impairment were used as covariates.

Results

During the follow-up period, 182 participants (133 men and 49 women) died. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed that lower DSST score was associated with increased risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.62, 95% CI = 0.97–2.72; HR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.05–2.87; and HR = 2.55, 95% CI = 1.51–4.29, for the third, second, and first quartiles of DSST score, respectively).

Conclusions

Slower information processing speed was associated with shorter survival among elderly Japanese.Key words: all-cause mortality, cognition, community elderly, information processing speed     

Is body mass index a risk factor for motor vehicle driver injury? A cohort study with prospective and retrospective outcomes

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between risk of motor vehicle driver injury and body mass index (BMI). METHODS: In a cohort study of 10 525 New Zealand men and women, BMI was assessed in 1992-1993 (baseline), and data on deaths and hospitalizations for motor vehicle driver injury were obtained by record linkage to national health databases for the period 1988-1998. Hazard ratios (HR) and CI were estimated by Cox regression. RESULTS: During a mean 10.3 years of follow-up, 139 fatal and non-fatal driver injury cases occurred (85 before baseline and 54 after). A U-shaped association was observed between driver injury risk and BMI, both crudely and after adjustment for covariates, which included age, sex, driving exposure, and alcohol intake (P-values for quadratic trend /=28.7 kg/m(2); HR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.18-3.39) and lowest (<23.5 kg/m(2); HR = 2.17, 95% CI: 1.27-3.73) quartiles of BMI were twice as likely to have experienced a driver injury during the follow-up period as participants in the reference quartile (25.9-28.6 kg/m(2); HR = 1.00). CONCLUSION: Further research is needed to corroborate or refute the hypothesis that BMI is a risk factor for serious motor vehicle driver injury.     

Overweight and all-cause mortality in a Swedish rural population: Skaraborg Hypertension and Diabetes Project

AIMS: To explore the prevalence of overweight in men and women in a Swedish rural community and to examine its associations with all-cause mortality. METHODS: A community-based cohort study. A total of 1,109 men and women aged >or= 40 years participated in a survey of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in the city of Skara in Skaraborg, Sweden, in 1993-94. Overweight was defined as a BMI >or=25.0 kg m(-2). Vital status was ascertained to 31 December 1999 and sex-specific associations between overweight and mortality were explored. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight according to the WHO's criteria exceeded 50% in men and 35% in women. In men there was an inverse association between BMI and mortality. Men in the lowest quartile of BMI experienced the highest mortality with 44.1 deaths per 1,000 person-years. The hazard ratio (HR) in the highest quartile was 0.6 (95% CI 0.4-0.9). In women there were no significant differences in mortality between quartiles of BMI. In both men and women with previous CVD the mortality rates decreased with quartiles of increasing BMI. The inverse association between BMI and mortality was confined to elderly men with a history of CVD. CONCLUSION: In both sexes the association between BMI and mortality differed across subgroups of age and of a history of previous CVD. No indication of overweight being negative for longevity was found in this population. Higher age and a history of previous CVD contribute to the excess mortality seen in subjects with low BMI.     

Adiposity, physical activity, and pancreatic cancer in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Cohort

Obesity and lack of physical activity have been inconsistently associated with pancreatic cancer. Using data from a self-administered baseline questionnaire (1995-1996), the authors investigated the association between adiposity and physical activity and pancreatic cancer in 495,035 participants of the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study who were aged 50-71 years. To avoid the influence of subclinical disease, follow-up time started 1 year after baseline, and subjects with a body mass index (BMI) of <18.5 kg/m(2) were excluded. A subcohort (n = 302,060) completed a second questionnaire with information about physical activity and waist and hip circumference. During follow-up though 2000, 654 pancreatic cancer cases were identified. The authors used Cox proportional hazard models to generate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Compared with those with a BMI of 18.5-<25, those with a BMI of >/=35 had a 45% greater pancreatic cancer risk (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 2.02; p(trend) = 0.02). Significant positive associations for BMI were observed among nonsmokers (for BMI > or =35: hazard ratio = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.14, 2.53; p(trend) = 0.004) but not recent smokers (p(interaction) = 0.08). Waist circumference was positively associated with pancreatic cancer (fourth vs. first quartile: hazard ratio = 2.53, 95% CI: 1.13, 5.65; p(trend) = 0.04) in women but not men. The authors observed no association with physical activity. Their results suggest a positive association between adiposity and pancreatic cancer.     

THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN WEIGHT FLUCTUATION AND MORTALITY: RESULTS FROM A POPULATION-BASED COHORT STUDY

Previous studies evaluating the association between weight fluctuation and mortality are limited and have conflicting results. This study will further evaluate the association between weight fluctuation and mortality in a nationally representative cohort by performing survival analysis of NHANES I and NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study (n=8479; weighted sample=68,200,905). This cohort was followed from 1971 to 1992 and categorized using weight change over five time points into stable non-obese, stable obese, weight gain, weight loss and weight fluctuation groups. All-cause mortality (ACM) and cardiovascular mortality (CM) were evaluated. Respondents with weight fluctuation had higher ACM (HR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.25–2.69) and CM hazards ratios (HR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.10–3.15) than the stable non-obese group, even after controlling for pre-existing disease, initial BMI and excluding those in poor health or incapacitated. Increased mortality was also seen in the weight loss group (ACM HR: 3.36, 95% CI: 2.47–4.55), (CM HR 4.22, 95% CI: 2.60–6.84). The stable obese group did not have increased ACM, but did have increased CM prior to the exclusion of those in poor health or incapacitated. (HR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.10–4.28). Weight fluctuation is associated with a higher risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in the US population, even after adjustment for pre-existing disease, initial BMI and the exclusion of those in poor health or incapacitated. Thus, health care providers should promote a commitment to maintaining weight loss to avoid weight fluctuation and consider patients weight histories when assessing their risk status.     

Malnutrition at Diagnosis Predicts Mortality in Patients With Systemic Immunoglobulin Light‐Chain Amyloidosis Independently of Cardiac Stage and Response to Treatment

Background: Nutrition status was shown to be a prognostic factor in patients with immunoglobulin light‐chain amyloidosis (AL). However, malnutrition was associated with cardiac involvement, thus suggesting potential interactions. This study aim was to clarify the association among nutrition status, cardiac stage, and mortality in AL. Methods: One hundred twenty‐eight consecutive newly diagnosed, treatment‐naïve patients with histologically confirmed AL were enrolled. Anthropometric, biochemical, and clinical variables were assessed. Results: At multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis, body mass index (BMI) < 22 kg/m² (HR = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.09–3.56) and unintentional 6‐month weight loss (WL) ≥ 10% (HR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.00–3.74) resulted in independent predictors of survival after controlling for hematologic response to treatment (HR = 0.27, 95% CI = 0.14–0.53) and cardiac stage (Mayo Clinic stage III, HR = 4.42, 95% CI = 2.61–7.51). There was no effect modification of malnutrition on mortality by cardiac stage (P for interaction = .27). Moderate and severe malnutrition (prevalence: 21.9% and 7.8%, respectively) similarly increased the risk of death (HR = 3.09, 95% CI = 1.75–5.46; 2.88, 95% CI = 1.23–6.72, respectively). Conclusions: In AL, malnutrition at diagnosis is a frequent comorbidity that affects the prognosis independently of hematologic response to treatment and cardiac stage. Nutrition status should be systematically considered in future intervention trials in AL. Nutrition support trials are warranted.     

Potato Consumption and Risk of Colorectal Cancer in the Norwegian Women and Cancer Cohort

Potatoes are the fourth most plentiful food crop in the world, yet the scientific literature on the health effects of potato consumption is scarce. This study aimed to investigate the association between potato consumption and the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) among 79,778 women aged 41–70, in the Norwegian Women and Cancer study. Information on diet, lifestyle, and health was collected by questionnaire. CRC cases (n = 912) were identified through registry linkage. Adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association between potato consumption and the risk of CRC. Results showed that high potato consumption was associated with a higher risk of CRC (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10, 1.60 for ≥3 potatoes per day versus 0–7 potatoes per week). The same association was found for rectal cancer (HR: 1.68, 95% CI: 1.19, 2.36), and same tendencies were found for colon cancer (HR: 1.20, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.50). When stratified by body mass index (BMI) (<25 and ≥25 kg/m²), significant associations were found with BMI <25 kg/m² for CRC (HR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.89) and rectal cancer (HR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.25, 3.06). No significant interaction between potato consumption and BMI (P = 0.49) was found.     

Association between Dietary Diversity and All-Cause Mortality: A Multivariable Model in a Mediterranean Population with 18 Years of Follow-Up

We evaluated the relationship between the dietary diversity score (DDS) and all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in an adult Mediterranean population. We analyzed the data of 1540 participants from the Valencia Nutrition Survey. The DDS was estimated using a validated food frequency questionnaire and was categorized into quartiles (Q), where the first quartile indicates the lowest dietary diversity. Deaths were ascertained during an 18-year follow-up period. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). There were 403 deaths during the follow-up period (40% due to CVD). An inverse association was observed between the DDS and all-cause and CVD mortality. Compared with participants in the lowest DDS quartile (Q1), participants in the highest DDS quartile (Q4) showed 32% and 45% less risk of death for all-cause and CVD mortality, in sex- and age-adjusted models, respectively. Regarding the food groups in the DDS, an inverse association was identified between total vegetable consumption diversity and all-cause and CVD mortality in the highest quartiles, (Q3 vs. Q1, HR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.50, 0.99) and (Q4 vs. Q1, HR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.30, 0.91), respectively. This study suggests that a higher diversity in food intake, particularly in vegetables, may be associated with a lower risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. This association should be further investigated in other wider populations.     

Diabetes in older people: Prevalence,incidence and its association with medium- and long-term mortality from all causes

ObjectiveTo estimate the prevalence and incidence of self-reported diabetes and to study its association with medium- and long-term mortality from all causes in persons ≥65 years.DesignA population-based cohort study begun in 1993.Setting“Envejecer en Leganés” cohort (Madrid).ParticipantsA random sample of persons ≥65 years (n = 1277 in the 1993 baseline sample).MethodsParticipants were classified as having diabetes if they so reported and had consulted a physician for this reason within the last year. Diabetes history was categorized in <10 and ≥10 years in 1993. Incidence density was calculated in 2-year periods in non-diabetic individuals (1965 persons/2 years). Vital status was recorded on 31 December 2011. The association between diabetes history ≥10 years and mortality at 6 and 18 years follow-up was studied by the Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression analyses after adjusting for age, sex, heart disease and comorbidity.ResultsThe prevalence of self-reported diabetes rose from 10.3% in 1993 to 16.1% in 1999 (p ≤ 0.001) and was higher in women than men (p ≤ 0.05). Total incidence density was 2.6 cases/100 persons/2 years (95% CI: 2.0–3.3). Medium- and long-term mortality was higher in persons with diabetes history ≥10 years than in non-diabetic individuals (HR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2–3.3 and HR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.1–2.5, respectively). In diabetics with history <10 years the HR was 1.3 (95% CI: 0.9–1.9) and HR: 1.5 (95% CI: 1.2–1.9, respectively).ConclusionsAlthough diabetes is clearly associated with increased risk of mortality, it is significant only for patients with ≥10 years’ history of diabetes.     

Elevation of Serum Spermidine in Obese Patients: Results from a Cross-Sectional and Follow-Up Study

Background: Spermidine, a natural polyamine, appears to be a promising intervention for the treatment of obesity in animal studies, but epidemiological studies on the association between spermidine and obesity are inadequate. Methods: In the cross-sectional study, a total of 4230 eligible Chinese rural participants aged ≥ 35 years at baseline were recruited, of whom 1738 completed the two-year follow-up. Serum spermidines were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography with a fluorescence detector. Obesity and change in BMI were used as outcomes. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to obtain the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Participants who were obese had higher serum spermidine concentrations than those who were of normal weight (median (IQR), 27.2 ng/mL (14.8–53.4 ng/mL) vs. 23.8 ng/mL (12.8–46.6 ng/mL), p = 0.002). Compared with participants in the first quartile, those in the third quartile (OR 1.327, 95% CI 1.050 to 1.678) and the fourth quartile (OR 1.417, 95% CI 1.121 to 1.791) had a significantly increased risk of prevalent obesity after adjustment for confounding factors. In the follow-up study, participants in the third quartile (OR 0.712, 95% CI 0.535 to 0.946) and the fourth quartile (OR 0.493, 95% CI 0.370 to 0.657) had significantly lower risks of an increase in BMI after adjustment for confounding factors, with the lowest quartile as the reference. Meanwhile, we found a nonlinear relationship between spermidine and BMI in the follow-up study (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Serum spermidine was positively associated with increased odds of obesity in the cross-sectional study but reduced odds of an increase in BMI in the follow-up study among Chinese adults. Future studies are warranted to determine the exact mechanism underlying the association between spermidine and obesity and the scope for interventions.     

Smoking reduction,smoking cessation,and mortality: a 16-year follow-up of 19,732 men and women from The Copenhagen Centre for Prospective Population Studies

The authors investigated the association between changes in smoking habits and mortality by pooling data from three large cohort studies conducted in Copenhagen, Denmark. The study included a total of 19,732 persons who had been examined between 1967 and 1988, with reexaminations at 5- to 10-year intervals and a mean follow-up of 15.5 years. Date of death and cause of death were obtained by record linkage with nationwide registers. By means of Cox proportional hazards models, heavy smokers (>or=15 cigarettes/day) who reduced their daily tobacco intake by at least 50% without quitting between the first two examinations and participants who quit smoking were compared with persons who continued to smoke heavily. After exclusion of deaths occurring in the first 2 years of follow-up, the authors found the following adjusted hazard ratios for subjects who reduced their smoking: for cardiovascular diseases, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.01 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.76, 1.35); for respiratory diseases, HR = 1.20 (95% CI: 0.70, 2.07); for tobacco-related cancers, HR = 0.91 (95% CI: 0.63, 1.31); and for all-cause mortality, HR = 1.02 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.17). In subjects who stopped smoking, most estimates were significantly lower than the heavy smokers'. These results suggest that smoking reduction is not associated with a decrease in mortality from tobacco-related diseases. The data confirm that smoking cessation reduces mortality risk.     

Predicting early mortality among elderly patients hospitalised in medical wards via emergency department: The SAFES cohort study

Objectives: The aim of the study was, by early identification of deleterious prognostic factors that are open to remediation, to be in a position to assign elderly patients to different mortality risk groups to improve management.Design: Prospective multicentre cohort.Setting: Nine French teaching hospitals.Participants: One thousand three hundred and six (1 306) patients aged 75 and over, hospitalised after having passed through Emergency Department (ED).Measurements: Patients were assessed using Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) tools. A Cox survival analysis was performed to identify prognostic variables for six-week mortality. Receiver Operating Characteristics analysis was used to study the discriminant power of the model. A mortality risk score is proposed to define three risk groups for six-week mortality.Results: Crude mortality rate after a six-week follow-up was 10.6% (n=135). Prognostic factors identified were: malnutrition risk (HR=2.1; 95% CI: 1.1–3.8; p=.02), delirium (HR=1.7; 95% CI: 1.2-2.5; p=.006), and dependency: moderate dependency (HR=4.9; 95% CI: 1.5–16.5; p=.01) or severe dependency (HR=10.3; 95% CI: 3.2–33.1; p< .001). The discriminant power of the model was good: the c-statistic representing the area under the curve was 0.71 (95% IC: 0.67 – 0.75; p< .001). The six-week mortality rate increased significantly (p< .001) across the three risk groups: 1.1% (n=269; 95% CI=0.5–1.7) in the lowest risk group, 11.1% (n=854; 95% CI=9.4–12.9) in the intermediate risk group, and 22.4% (n=125; 95% CI=20.1–24.7) in the highest risk group.Conclusions: A simple score has been calculated (using only three variables from the CGA) and a practical schedule proposed to characterise patients according to the degree of mortality risk. Each of these three variables (malnutrition risk, delirium, and dependency) identified as independent prognostic factors can lead to a targeted therapeutic option to prevent early mortality.     

The effect of body mass index and weight change on epithelial ovarian cancer survival in younger women: a long-term follow-up study

Abstract Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and epithelial ovarian cancer survival among young women. Methods: We conducted a cohort analysis of 425 women aged 20-54 years with incident epithelial ovarian cancer enrolled during 1980-1982 in Cancer and Steroid Hormone (CASH), a population-based, case-control study. Participants' vital status was ascertained though linkage with the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between survival and usual adult BMI, BMI at age 18, and weight change from age 18 to adult. Results: During a follow-up of up to 17 years, 215 women died. Compared to women with an adult BMI in the lowest quartile (<20.7), women in the second (20.8-22.5), third (22.6-24.9), and fourth (≥25.0) quartiles were not at increased risk for death (HR 1.2, 95% CI 0.8-1.8; HR 1.1, 95% CI 0.7-1.6; and HR 0.9, 95% CI 0.6-1.4, respectively) (p trend=0.6). Similarly, neither age 18 BMI nor weight change were associated with ovarian cancer survival. Conclusions: Although elevated BMI is associated with increased ovarian cancer risk among young women, we found no evidence of its association with ovarian cancer survival in this population.