Service screening with mammography of women aged 70-74 years in Sweden. Effects on breast cancer mortality

Since the benefit of mammography screening for women 70 years and older is unclear, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect on breast cancer mortality of the population-based service-screening program in Sweden inviting women 70-74 years. Among the counties with service-screening programs in Sweden which started 1986-1990 those with upper age limit 74 years were compared to counties with 69 years as upper age limit with respect to refined breast cancer mortality. Allowance was made for potential biases namely inclusion of cases diagnosed before invitation and lead time. Two methods for estimation of breast cancer mortality were used; underlying cause of death (UCD) and excess mortality. With a mean follow-up of 10.1 years a reduction of the breast cancer excess mortality was estimated at 24%. Using the underlying cause of death the corresponding result was 6%. A non-significant reduction in breast cancer mortality was found in the counties with service-screening program including the age group 70-74 years in Sweden. The estimated reduction was larger when using excess mortality compared to the use of individual underlying cause of death.     

Effectiveness of population-based service screening with mammography for women ages 40 to 49 years: evaluation of the Swedish Mammography Screening in Young Women (SCRY) cohort

BACKGROUND:

The effectiveness of mammography screening for women ages 40 to 49 years still is questioned, and few studies of the effectiveness of service screening for this age group have been conducted.

METHODS:

Breast cancer mortality was compared between women who were invited to service screening at ages 40 to 49 years (study group) and women in the same age group who were not invited during 1986 to 2005 (control group). Together, these women comprise the Mammography Screening of Young Women (SCRY) cohort, which includes all Swedish counties. A prescreening period was defined to facilitate a comparison of mortality in the absence of screening. The outcome measure was refined mortality, ie, breast cancer death for women who were diagnosed during follow‐up at ages 40 to 49 years. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated.

RESULTS:

There was no significant difference in breast cancer mortality during the prescreening period. During the study period, there were 803 breast cancer deaths in the study group (7.3 million person‐years) and 1238 breast cancer deaths in the control group (8.8 million person‐years). The average follow‐up was 16 years. The estimated RR for women who were invited to screening was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.66‐0.83), and the RR for women who attended screening was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.62‐0.80).

CONCLUSIONS:

In this comprehensive study, mammography screening for women ages 40 to 49 years was efficient for reducing breast cancer mortality. Cancer 2011. © 2010 American Cancer Society.     

Breast-cancer screening with mammography in women aged 40–49 years

For some years, there has been a perceived need for more information on the effect of screening for breast cancer in women aged 40 to 49. Our approach was to gather the most recent data on screening in this age group, to assess the following quantities: the likely benefit in mortality terms, measures of screening performance and arrest of tumour progression through screening, costs and public-health implications, and prospects for future screening and research. A collaborative meeting was held in Falun, Sweden, for which data were gathered in advance from all the randomized trials of breast-cancer screening that included women in this age group and all identifiable substantial databases on service screening of women aged 40 to 49. Updated results from the Swedish overview of mammographic screening trials indicated relative mortality associated with invitation to screening of 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.59–1.01). Combining all population-based randomized trials gave the relative-mortality figure of 0.76 (0.62–0.93), and combining all trials gave 0.85 (0.71–1.01). Relative-mortality figures in individual trials could be predicted by the rates of advanced cancers in those trials. Detailed analysis suggested faster tumour progression in the age group 40 to 49 compared with groups aged 50 or more. It is likely that mammographic screening of women aged 40 to 49 can reduce subsequent mortality from breast cancer, and studies on tumour progression indicate that to obtain substantial benefit it is probably necessary to screen every 12 to 18 months, with 2-view mammography and double reading of films. This represents a greater outlay in resources and in commitment of the population. Further work remains to be done on the time taken for a mortality benefit to emerge, on age at diagnosis in some of the trials, and on costs and public-health aspects© 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

The impact of organized mammography service screening on breast carcinoma mortality in seven Swedish counties

BACKGROUND: The evaluation of organized mammographic service screening programs is a major challenge in public health. In particular, there is a need to evaluate the effect of the screening program on the mortality of breast carcinoma, uncontaminated in the screening epoch by mortality from 1) cases diagnosed in the prescreening period and 2) cases diagnosed among unscreened women (i.e., nonattenders) after the initiation of organized screening. METHODS: In the current study, the authors ascertained breast carcinoma deaths in the prescreening and screening epochs in 7 Swedish counties from tumors diagnosed in these epochs and in the age group 40-69 years in 6 counties and 50-69 years in 1 county. Data regarding deaths were obtained from the Uppsala Regional Oncologic Center in conjunction with the National Cause of Death Register. The total number of women in the eligible age range living in each county was obtained from the annual population data of Statistics Sweden. Detailed screening data were provided by the screening centers in the seven counties, including the number of invited, the number attended, and whether each individual breast carcinoma case was exposed (screen-detected and interval cases combined) or unexposed (not-invited or nonattenders) to mammographic screening. There were 2044 breast carcinoma deaths from 14,092 incident tumors diagnosed in the prescreening and screening epochs, and the total number of person-years was 7.5 million. Data were analyzed using Poisson regression with corrections for self-selection bias and lead-time bias when appropriate. RESULTS: The mortality reduction for breast carcinoma in all 7 counties combined for women actually exposed to screening compared with the prescreening period was 44% (relative risk [RR] = 0.56; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.50-0.62). When all incident tumors were considered, both those exposed and those unexposed to screening combined, counties with > 10 years of screening were found to demonstrate a significant 32% mortality reduction (RR = 0.68; 95% CI, 0.60-0.77) and counties with < or = 10 years of screening showed a significant 18% reduction in breast carcinoma mortality (RR = 0.82; 95% CI, 0.72-0.94) for the screening epoch compared with the prescreening epoch. Within the screening epoch, after adjustment for self-selection bias, a 39% mortality reduction (RR = 0.61; 95%CI, 0.55-0.68) was observed in association with invitation to screening. CONCLUSIONS: Organized service screening in 7 Swedish counties, covering approximately 33% of the population of Sweden, resulted in a 40-45% reduction in breast carcinoma mortality among women actually screened. The policy of offering screening is associated with a mortality reduction in breast carcinoma of 30% in the invited population, exposed and unexposed combined. The results of the current study indicate that the majority of the breast carcinoma mortality reduction is indeed due to the screening.     

Beyond randomized controlled trials: organized mammographic screening substantially reduces breast carcinoma mortality

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of mammographic screening in the reduction of breast carcinoma mortality has been demonstrated in randomized controlled trials. However, the evaluation of organized screening outside of research settings (so-called "service screening") faces unique methodologic and conceptual challenges. The current study describes the evaluation of organized mammography screening in a clinical setting and demonstrates the benefit obtained from service screening in two Swedish counties. METHODS: In the group of subjects ages 20--69 years, there were 6807 women diagnosed with breast carcinoma over a 29-year period in 2 counties in Sweden and 1863 breast carcinoma deaths. All patients were classified from patient charts based on their screening status (i.e., whether they had been invited to undergo screening and whether they actually had undergone screening). The number of women who lived in the 2 counties during the 29-year study period was provided by the Central Bureau of Statistics. Breast carcinoma-specific mortality was compared across three time periods: 1) 1968--1977, when no screening was taking place because mammography had not been introduced; 2) 1978--1987, the approximate period of the Two-County randomized controlled trial of screening in women ages 40--74 years; and 3) 1988--1996, when all women in the 2 counties ages 40--69 years were invited to undergo screening (service screening). When comparing breast carcinoma mortality in screened women with that in women diagnosed before screening was introduced, a correction for self-selection bias was incorporated to prevent overestimation of the benefit of screening. RESULTS: The mortality from incident breast carcinoma diagnosed in women ages 40-69 years who actually were screened during the service screening period (1988--1996) declined significantly by 63% (relative risk [RR] = 0.37; 95% CI, 0.30--0.46) compared with breast carcinoma mortality during the time period when no screening was available (1968--1977). The mortality decline was 50% (RR = 0.50; 95% CI, 0.41--0.60) when breast carcinoma mortality among all women who were invited to undergo screening (nonattendees included) was compared with breast cancer mortality during the time period when no screening was available (1968--1977). The reduction in mortality observed during the service screening period, adjusted for selection bias, was 48% (RR = 0.52; 95% CI, 0.43--0.63). No significant change in breast carcinoma mortality was observed over the three time periods in women who did not undergo screening. This group included women ages 20--39 years because these individuals were never invited to undergo screening, and women ages 40--69 years who did not undergo screening (not invited during the randomized trial or invited during the second and third time periods but declined). CONCLUSIONS: Regular mammographic screening resulted in a 63% reduction in breast carcinoma death among women who actually underwent screening. The policy of invitation to organized screening with mammography appears to have reduced breast carcinoma mortality by 50% in these 2 counties.     

The Edinburgh randomised trial of breast cancer screening: results after 10 years of follow-up.

The Edinburgh Randomised Trial of Breast Cancer Screening recruited 44,288 women aged 45-64 years into the initial cohort of the trial during 1978-81, and 10 years of follow-up is now complete. A total of 22,944 women were randomised into the study group and were offered screening for 7 years; the remaining women formed the control group. After 10 years, breast cancer mortality is 14-21% lower in the study group than in the controls depending on the precise definition of the end point. These differences are not statistically significant; for breast cancer as the underlying cause of death the relative risk is 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.61-1.11). Rates of locally advanced and metastatic cancer were substantially lower in the study group, but screening has failed to achieve marked reductions in rates of small node-positive cancers. Those women who accepted the final invitation to screening have been monitored over the 3 year period prior to their first screen under the UK service screening programme. Interval cases, expressed as a proportion of the control incidence, increased from 12% in the first year to 67% in the third year. The reduction in breast cancer mortality for older women (aged at least 50 years) is the same as that for the total study group for this duration of follow-up. For analyses of breast cancer mortality in younger women updates recruited to the trial from 1982 to 1985 (10,383 women with 6-8 years'' follow-up) have been included. The reduction in breast cancer mortality for women aged 45-49 years at entry was 22% (relative risk = 0.78, 95% confidence interval = 0.46-1.31).     

Increased incidence of invasive breast cancer after the introduction of service screening with mammography in Sweden

Screening with mammography has been shown to substantially reduce mortality from breast cancer. The incidence of invasive cancer will increase as screening starts, and it is desirable that it gradually returns to the same level as before screening. Age-specific incidence of invasive breast cancer in 11 Swedish counties, including 463,000 women aged 40-74 years, was analysed before and after the start of service screening with mammography. Incidence, as observed on average during 12.8 years from screening start, was compared to expected incidence based on the incidence during a 15-year period preceding screening start. The height of the incidence peak during the first screening round was increasing with increasing age, compatible with the accumulation in the population of slowly growing tumours by age. All analysed age groups showed an increased ratio between observed stabilised incidence 7-14 years after screening start and expected incidence. When relative risks were adjusted for lead time, the estimates were 1.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-1.79) and 1.21 (95% CI 1.04-1.41) for the age groups 50-59 and 60-69 years, respectively. In the age groups 40-49 and 70-74, no change was observed. The findings were further confirmed by the observation of a disappearance in the screened population of the notch in the increasing trend of age-specific breast cancer incidence for the ages after menopause. This notch could indicate hormone-related retardation in tumour growth around menopause. It appears that many of these clinically insignificant, retarded tumours are detected with screening mammography.     

Mammographic screening after the age of 65 years: Evidence for a reduction in breast cancer mortality

We evaluated whether regular mammographic screening of women aged 65 years or older affected breast cancer mortality. In Nijmegen, a population-based screening program for breast cancer was started in 1975, with biennial mammography for women aged 35–64 years. Since 1977, elderly women have also been participating. For the present case-control study, women were selected who were over 64 years of age at the most recent invitation. Eighty-two of them had died from breast cancer. For these cases, 410 age-matched population controls were selected. The ratio of breast cancer mortality rates of the women who had participated regularly (i.e., in the 2 most recent screening rounds prior to diagnosis) vs. the women who had not participated in the screening was 0.56 (95% Cl = 0.28−1.13). The rate ratio was 0.45 in the women aged 65–74 years at the most recent invitation (95% Cl = 0.20−1.02), whereas it was 1.05 in the women aged 75 years and older (95% Cl = 0.27−4.14). While the breast cancer survival rate of the non-participant patients was fairly equal to that of patients from a control population, the underlying incidence rate of breast cancer was higher in the participants than in the no-participants. Therefore, we conclude that bias was present, but that it had decreased our effect estimate. The real reduction in breast cancer mortality due to regular screening will be even larger. Regular mammographic screening of women over age 65 (at least up to 75 years) can reduce breast cancer mortality by approximately 45%. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Effects of annual vs triennial mammography interval on breast cancer incidence and mortality in ages 40-49 in Finland

Background:

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of mammography screening invitation interval on breast cancer mortality in women aged 40–49 years.

Methods:

Since 1987 in Turku, Finland, women aged 40–49 years and born in even calendar years were invited for mammography screening annually and those born in odd years triennially. The female cohorts born during 1945–1955 were followed for up to 10 years for incident breast cancers and thereafter for an additional 3 years for mortality.

Results:

Among 14 765 women free of breast cancer at age 40, there were 207 incident primary invasive breast cancers diagnosed before the age of 50. Of these, 36 women died of breast cancer. The mean follow-up time for cancer incidence was 9.8 years and for mortality 12.8 years. The incidence of breast cancer was similar in the annual and triennial invitation groups (RR: 0.98, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.75–1.29). Further, there were no significant differences in overall mortality (RR: 1.20, 95% CI: 0.99–1.46) or in incidence-based breast cancer mortality (RR: 1.14, 95% CI: 0.59–1.27) between the annual and triennial invitation groups.

Conclusions:

There were no differences in the incidence of breast cancer or incidence-based breast cancer mortality between the women who were invited for screening annually or triennially.     

Effective biennial mammographic screening in women aged 40-49

BackgroundThe United Kingdom is currently moving the age limit for invitation in its national breast screening programme downwards from 50 to 47. In contrast, the US Preventive Services Task Force concluded that, because of borderline statistical significance on effectiveness of mammographic screening, the current evidence is insufficient to advise screening in women aged 40–49.Material and methodsWe designed a case-referent study to investigate the effect of biennial mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality for women in their forties. In Nijmegen, the Netherlands, screening started in 1975. A total of 272 breast cancer deaths were identified, and 1360 referents aged 40–69 were sampled from the population invited for screening. Effectiveness was estimated by calculating the odds ratio (OR) indicating the breast cancer death rate in screened versus unscreened women.ResultsIn women aged 40–49, the effect of screening was OR = 0.50 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.30–0.82). This result is similar to those aged 50–59 (OR = 0.54; 95% CI = 0.35–0.85) and 60–69 (OR = 0.65; 95% CI = 0.38–1.13).ConclusionOur results add convincing evidence about the effectiveness of biennial mammographic screening in women aged 40–49.     

Followup after 11 years – update of mortality results in the Stockholm mammographic screening trial

Results from several randomised mammography screening trials haveshown that it is possible to reduce mortalityin breast cancer by mammographic screening at leastfor women above 50 years of age. Thepurpose of this article is to present dataon mortality in breast cancer in study andcontrol groups of the Stockholm trial after 11years of followup, to analyse which age groupbenefits most from screening. In March 1981, 40,318women in Stockholm, aged 40 through 64 years,entered a randomized trial of breast cancer screeningby single view mammography alone, versus no interventionin a control group of 20 000 women.Two screening rounds were performed and the attendancerate was over 80% in the two rounds.During 1986 the control group was invited onceto screening. Totally 428 and 217 cases ofbreast cancer were diagnosed in the study andcontrol groups respectively. After a mean follow-up of11.4 years a nonsignificant mortality reduction of 26%was observed for the whole study group, witha relative risk (RR) of death in breastcancer of 0.74 (CI(confidence interval)=0.5–1.1). Forwomen aged 50–64 years a significant 38% mortalityreduction was observed with a RR of 0.62(CI=0.38–1.0). For women aged 40–49 yearsno effect on mortality was found, with aRR of death in breast cancer of 1.08(CI=0.54–2.17). The breakpoint for benefit inthis study seemed to be at 50 yearsof age when 5-year age groups were analysed,but this tendency is uncertain because of thelow statistical power in the analysis of theyounger age groups. Long screening intervals, the useof single-view mammography, and the fact that morethan 50% of the women in age group40–49 years were still below 50 years ofage when the study was closed, were allfacts that could have influenced the results inage group 40–49 years. Larger studies are neededto answer the question whether mammographic screening canbe successful in younger age groups.     

The effects of population‐based mammography screening starting between age 40 and 50 in the presence of adjuvant systemic therapy

Adjuvant systemic therapy has been shown to be effective in reducing breast cancer mortality. The additional effect of mammography screening remains uncertain, in particular for women aged 40–49 years. We therefore assessed the effects of screening starting between age 40 and 50, as compared to the effects of adjuvant systemic therapy. The use of adjuvant endocrine therapy, chemotherapy and the combination of endocrine‐ and chemotherapy, as well as the uptake of mammography screening in the Netherlands was modeled using micro‐simulation. The effects of screening and treatment were modeled based on randomized controlled trials. The effects of adjuvant therapy, biennial screening between age 50 and 74 in the presence of adjuvant therapy, and extending the screening programme by starting at age 40 were assessed by comparing breast cancer mortality in women aged 0–100 years in scenarios with and without these interventions. In 2008, adjuvant treatment was estimated to have reduced the breast cancer mortality rate in the simulated population by 13.9%, compared to a situation without treatment. Biennial screening between age 50 and 74 further reduced the mortality rate by 15.7%. Extending screening to age 48 would lower the mortality rate by 1.0% compared to screening from age 50; 10 additional screening rounds between age 40 and 49 would reduce this rate by 5.1%. Adjuvant systemic therapy and screening reduced breast cancer mortality in similar amounts. Expanding the lower age limit of screening would further reduce breast cancer mortality.     

Organised mammography screening reduces breast cancer mortality: a cohort study from Finland

We evaluated the effectiveness and the efficacy of population-based mammography programme in Finland, and explored associations between the screening performance and the screening efficacy. The main outcome, incidence-based mortality from breast cancer, was estimated by invitation, participation, age at death, and screening centres categorised by recall rates. The study was based on an individual followup of screening invitees and participants from 1992 to 2003. The coverage of screening invitations was 95% among 50-59 years old women, and 20-40% among women aged 60-69 years. We compared observed deaths from breast cancer to expected breast cancer deaths without screening in ages 50-69 at death. The observed deaths were obtained from a cohort of individual invitees (n = 361,848). The expected deaths were defined by modelling breast cancer mortality from 1974 to 1985 and 1992 to 2003 at population level. The population data were derived from the same municipalities (n = 260) that were incorporated into the cohort. The breast cancer mortality among the invited women was reduced by 22% (relative risk 0.78, 95% confidence interval 0.70-0.87). After adjusting for the self-selection, the efficacy among the participants was 28% (0.72,0.56-0.88). No clear association between the recall rates and the screening efficacy was observed. The organised mammography screening in Finland is effective. The relationship between the estimates of process and outcome of mammography is not yet straightforward: effectiveness and efficacy remain the best estimates for evaluating the success of mammography screening.     

Effectiveness of mass screening for breast cancer in Japan

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer screening has been conducted in Japan mainly by physical examination, the standard method for breast cancer screening according to the Law of Health Services for the Elderly. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of mass screening for breast cancer in Japan. METHODS: We calculated the average coverage-rates for breast cancer screening per year from 1986 to 1995 for women aged 30-69 years for all of the 3255 municipalities in Japan, selecting "high coverage-rate" municipalities with average coverage-rates of 20%, 30%, 40% or more. Two municipalities were selected as "controls" for each high coverage-rate municipality, and were matched for population, National Health Insurance rate, and the age-adjusted death rate from cancer of the female breast in the period 1986-90. We compared the change in the age-adjusted death rate from 1986-90 to 1991-95 of the high coverage-rate municipalities and the comparable controls. RESULTS: The percent reduction in the age-adjusted death rate from cancer of the breast in the high coverage-rate municipalities was statistically significantly greater than those in the controls. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that mass screening for female breast cancer, mainly by physical examination, contributed to the reduction of mortality from breast cancer.     

Breast cancer in New South Wales in 1972-1995: tumor size and the impact of mammographic screening.

To examine the use of mammographic screening in women in New South Wales (NSW), we measured uptake of initial mammograms and estimated the proportions of breast cancers that were screen detected. To see if mammographic screening has been associated with reductions in advanced breast cancers and mortality from breast cancer, we analyzed trends in age-specific and age-standardized breast cancer incidence and mortality from 1972 to 1995 and tumor size in 1986, 1989, 1992 and April to September 1995. Between 1984 and the end of 1995, an estimated 72% of NSW women in their 50s and 67% in their 60s had had at least 1 mammogram and, in 1995, an estimated 39% of invasive breast cancers in women in these age groups were detected by mammography. Before 1989, breast cancer incidence increased only slightly (+1.3% annually) but then, from 1990 to 1995, increased more rapidly (+3.1% annually). Between 1986 and 1995, rates of small cancers (< 1 cm) increased steeply by 2.7 times in women 40-49 years of age and 5.6 times in women 50-69 years of age. The incidence of large breast cancers (3+ cm), after little apparent change to 1992, fell by 17% in women 40-49 years of age and 20% in those 50-69 years of age to 1995. Breast cancer mortality increased slightly between 1972 and 1989 (+0.5% annually) but then fell (-2.3% annually) from 1990 to 1995. We concluded that breast cancer rates had been influenced in expected directions by the introduction of mammographic screening in women resident in NSW. We expect that recent falls in incidence of larger breast cancers and breast cancer mortality will become steeper as screening coverage increases in the second half of the 1990s.     

The Swedish Two-County Trial of mammographic screening: cluster randomisation and end point evaluation.

BACKGROUND: The Swedish Two-County Trial has been criticised on the grounds of the cluster randomisation and alleged bias in classification of cause of death. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the Two-County Trial, 77 080 women were randomised to regular invitation to screening (active study population, ASP) and 55 985 to no invitation (passive study population, PSP), in 45 geographical clusters. After approximately 7 years, the PSP was invited to screening and the trial closed. We analysed data using hierarchical statistical models to take account of cluster randomisation, and performed a conservative analysis assuming a systematic difference between ASP and PSP in baseline breast cancer mortality in one of the counties. We also analysed deaths from causes other than breast cancer and from all causes among breast cancer cases diagnosed in the ASP and PSP. RESULTS: Taking account of the cluster randomisation there was a significant 30% reduction in breast cancer mortality in the ASP. Conservatively, assuming a systematic difference between ASP and PSP clusters in baseline breast cancer mortality, there was a significant 27% reduction in mortality in the ASP. Ignoring classification of cause of death, there was a significant 13% reduction in all-cause mortality in breast cancer cases in the ASP. CONCLUSIONS: Breast cancer mortality is a valid end point and mammographic screening does indeed reduce mortality from breast cancer. The criticisms of the Swedish Two-County Trial are unfounded.     

Impact of screening mammography on mortality from breast cancer before age 60 in women 40 to 49 years of age

Background

Whether screening mammography programs should include women in their 40s is controversial. In Canada, screening of women aged 40–49 years has not been shown to reduce mortality from breast cancer. Given that screening mammography reduces mean tumour size and that tumour size is inversely associated with survival, the lack of benefit seen with screening is puzzling and suggests a possible adverse effect on mortality of mammography or subsequent treatment (or both) that counterbalances the expected benefit derived from downstaging.

Methods

We followed 50,436 women 40–49 years of age until age 60 for mortality from breast cancer. Of those women, one half had been randomly assigned to annual mammography and one half to no mammography. The impact of mammography on breast cancer mortality was estimated using a left-censored Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

Of 256 deaths from breast cancer recorded in the study cohort, 134 occurred in women allocated to mammography, and 122 occurred in those receiving usual care and not allocated to mammography. The cumulative risk of death from breast cancer to age 60 was 0.53% for women assigned to mammography and 0.48% for women not so assigned. The hazard ratio for breast cancer–specific death associated with 1 or more screening mammograms before age 50 was 1.10 (95% confidence interval: 0.86 to 1.40).

Conclusions

Mammography in women 40–49 years of age is associated with a small but nonsignificant increase in the risk of dying of breast cancer before age 60. Caution should be exercised when recommending mammographic screening to women before age 50.     

Breast cancer mortality after screening mammography in British Columbia women

Mammographic screening is a proven method for the early detection of breast cancer. The authors analyzed the impact of service mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality among British Columbia women who volunteered to be screened by the Screening Mammography Program of British Columbia. A cohort of women having at least one mammographic screen by Screening Mammography Program of British Columbia between the ages of 40 and 79 in the period 1988-2003 was identified. All cases and deaths from breast cancer occurring in British Columbia were identified from the British Columbia Cancer Registry and linked to the screening cohort. Expected deaths from breast cancer in the cohort were calculated using incidence and survival rates for British Columbia women not in the cohort. Adjustment was made for age and socioeconomic status of their area of residence at time of diagnosis. The breast cancer mortality ratio was calculated by dividing observed by expected breast cancer deaths. The mortality ratio (95% confidence interval) was 0.60 (0.55, 0.65) for all ages combined (p < 0.0001). The mortality ratio in women aged 40-49 at first screening was 0.61 (0.52, 0.71), similar to that in women over 50 (p = 0.90). Exclusion of mortality associated with breast cancers diagnosed after age 50 in women starting screening in their 40s increased the mortality ratio to 0.63 (0.52, 0.77), but it remained statistically significant. Correction for self-selection bias using estimates from the literature increased the mortality ratio for all ages to 0.76. Mammographic screening at all ages between 40 and 79 reduced subsequent mortality rates from breast cancer.     

Benefits and harms of breast cancer screening with mammography in women aged 40–49 years: A systematic review

Early detection of breast cancer through screening can lower breast cancer mortality rates and reduce the burden of this disease in the population. In most western countries, mammography screening starting from age 50 is recommended. However, there is debate about whether breast cancer screening should be extended to younger women. This systematic review provides an overview of the evidence from RCTs on the benefits and harms of breast cancer screening with mammography in women aged 40–49 years. The quality of the evidence for each outcome was appraised using the GRADE approach. Four articles reporting on two different trials—the Age trial and the Canadian National Breast Screening Study‐I (CNBSS‐I)—were included. The results showed no significant effect on breast cancer mortality (Age trial: RR 0.93 (95% CI 0.80–1.09); CNBSS‐I: HR 1.10 (95% CI 0.86–1.40)) nor on all‐cause mortality (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.93–1.03) in women aged 40–49 years offered screening. Among regularly attending women, the cumulative risk of experiencing a false‐positive recall was 20.5%. Over‐diagnosis of invasive breast cancer at 5 years post‐cessation of screening for women aged 40–49 years was estimated to be 32% and at 20 years post‐cessation of screening to be 48%. Including ductal carcinoma in situ, these numbers were 41% and 55%. Based on the current evidence from randomised trials, extending mammography screening to younger age groups cannot be recommended. However, there were limitations including relatively low sensitivity of screening and screening attendance, insufficient power, and contamination, which may explain the nonsignificant results.     

Breast-cancer mortality in a non-randomized trial on mammographic screening in women over age 65

Recent case-referent studies in the Nijmegen breast-screening programme have shown a reduction in breast-cancer mortality of approximately 50% due to screening of women aged 65 years and older. In this type of study, however, the results may be biased because of self-selection. The purpose of our present study was to compare the breast-cancer mortality rate in a population invited for screening with that of a reference population from an area without a screening programme. In 1977–1978, 6773 women aged 68–83 years were enrolled in the mammographic screening programme in Nijmegen, The Netherlands. The women were followed up until 31 December, 1990. The reference population consisted of women from the same birth cohort from Arnhem, a neighbouring city without mass screening, for whom the entry date was 1 January, 1978. The ratios of the Nijmegen and Arnhem breast-cancer mortality rates with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. In the study period, 173 patients were diagnosed with primary breast cancer in Nijmegen vs. 183 in Arnhem; 40 Nijmegen patients had died of breast cancer vs. 51 Arnhem patients. The cumulative mortality-rate ratio was 0.80 (95% CI = 0.53–1.22). In the periods 1978–1981, 1982–1985 and 1986–1990, the mortality rate ratios were 1.44 (95% CI = 0.67–3.10), 0.81 (95% CI = 0.37–1.79) and 0.53 (95% CI = 0.27–1.04), respectively. After adjustment for the difference in incidence rate that existed between the Nijmegen and Arnhem populations, mammographic screening of women older than 65 can be expected to yield a 40% reduction in breast-cancer mortality after 10 years. Int. J. Cancer, 70:164–168, 1997. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.