Glasgow Blatchford,pre-endoscopic Rockall and AIMS65 scores show no difference in predicting rebleeding rate and mortality in variceal bleeding

Objective: To compare the performance of the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), pre-endoscopic Rockall score (PRS) and AIMS65 score in predicting specific clinical endpoints following variceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH).

Material and methods: Between January 2008 and December 2013, we retrospectively analyzed 225 consecutive hospitalized patients managed for endoscopically confirmed UGIH.

Results: A total of 225 patients (mean age 61.3 years), mostly diagnosed with alcoholic cirrhosis (195/86.7%), presented with variceal UGIH during the study period. Rebleeding occurred in 22 (9.8%) patients and 30-day mortality was 39 (17.3%). Initial hemostasis was achieved with N-butyl cyanoacrylate (151/79.1%) and endoscopic variceal ligation (40/20.9%), while secondary rebleeding prophylaxis in 110 (48.9%) patients was accomplished using endoscopic variceal ligation (92%). The majority of patients died from the underlying disease, while 12 (30.8%) died from bleeding. Median hospital stay was 6 (1–35) days. There was no statistically significant difference among AIMS65, GBS and PRS in predicting mortality (AUROC 0.70 vs. 0.64 vs. 0.66) or rebleeding rates (AUROC 0.74 vs. 0.60 vs. 0.67). The GBS was superior in predicting the need for blood transfusion compared to AIMS65 score (AUROC 0.75 vs. 0.61, p?=?0.01) and PRS (AUROC 0.75 vs. 0.58, p?=?0.009).

Conclusions: The AIMS65, GBS and PRS scores are comparable but not useful for predicting outcome in patients with variceal UGIH because of poor discriminative ability. The GBS is superior in predicting the need for transfusion compared to AIMS65 score and PRS.     

Risk analysis of 30-day rebleeding in acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Background and study aimsThis study aimed to compare the prognostic value of ABC, Glasgow-Blatchford, Rockall and AIMS65 scoring systems in predicting rebleeding rate within 30 days after endoscopic treatment of acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (ANVUGIB).Patients and methodsA total of 93 patients with ANVUGIB were selected as the study subjects and they were divided into groups according to whether there was rebleeding in the 30 days’ follow-up period. 7 patients with rebleeding within 30 days were included in the rebleeding group, and the other 86 patients without rebleeding were included in the non-rebleeding group.ResultsBy drawing ROC curve, we found that ABC scoring system had the highest accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.65]) in predicting rebleeding within 30 days compared with the AIMS65 (0.56; P < 0.001), RS (0.51; P < 0.001), and GBS (0.61; P < 0.001). ABC scoring system showed the highest risk of rebleeding in 30 days. When the 4 scoring standards were judged as medium–high risk patients, the efficacy of the ABC scoring system in predicting the risk of rebleeding at 30 days for ANVUGIB was found to be the best in diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and diagnostic accuracy.ConclusionComprehensive evaluation showed that ABC score had the highest prediction accuracy. The negative differential significance of each evaluation method was great, that is, the risk of rebleeding was generally low when judged as low risk patients, while the value of predicting rebleeding was limited when judged as medium and high risk patients.     

Prognostic value of risk scoring systems for cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND Acute variceal bleeding is one of the deadliest complications of cirrhosis,with a high risk of in-hospital rebleeding and mortality.Some risk scoring systems to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding have been developed.However,for cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding,data regarding the predictive value of these prognostic scores in predicting in-hospital outcomes are limited and controversial.AIM To validate and compare the overall performance of selected prognostic scoring systems for predicting in-hospital outcomes in cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding.METHODS From March 2017 to June 2019,cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding were retrospectively enrolled at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University.The clinical Rockall score(CRS),AIMS65 score(AIMS65),GlasgowBlatchford score(GBS),modified GBS(m GBS),Canada-United KingdomAustralia score(CANUKA),Child-Turcotte-Pugh score(CTP),model for endstage liver disease(MELD) and MELD-Na were calculated.The overall performance of these prognostic scoring systems was evaluated.RESULTS A total of 330 cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding were enrolled;the rates of in-hospital rebleeding and mortality were 20.3% and 10.6%,respectively.For inhospital rebleeding,the discriminative ability of the CTP and CRS were clinically acceptable,with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves(AUROCs) of 0.717(0.648-0.787) and 0.716(0.638-0.793),respectively.The other tested scoring systems had poor discriminative ability(AUROCs 0.7).For inhospital mortality,the CRS,CTP,AIMS65,MELD-Na and MELD showed excellent discriminative ability(AUROCs 0.8).The AUROCs of the m GBS,CANUKA and GBS were relatively small,but clinically acceptable(AUROCs 0.7).Furthermore,the calibration of all scoring systems was good for either inhospital rebleeding or death.CONCLUSION For cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding,in-hospital rebleeding and mortality rates remain high.The CTP and CRS can be used clinically to predict in-hospital rebleeding.The performances of the CRS,CTP,AIMS65,MELD-Na and MELD are excellent at predicting in-hospital mortality.     

C-reactive protein for simple prediction of mortality in patients with acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A retrospective analysis

In upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), scoring systems using multiple variables were developed to predict patient outcomes. We evaluated serum C-reactive protein (CRP) for simple prediction of patient mortality after acute non-variceal UGIB.The associated factors for 30-day mortality was investigated by regression analysis in patients with acute non-variceal UGIB (N = 1232). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve was analyzed with serum CRP in these patients and a prospective cohort (N = 435). The discriminant validity of serum CRP was compared to other prognostic scoring systems by means of AUROC curve analysis.Serum CRP was significantly higher in the expired than survived patients (median, 4.53 vs 0.49; P < .001). The odds ratio of serum CRP was 4.18 (2.10–9.27) in multivariate analysis. The odds ratio of high serum CRP was higher than Rockall score (4.15 vs 1.29), AIMS65 (3.55 vs 1.71) and Glasgow-Blatchford score (4.32 vs 1.08) in multivariate analyses. The AUROC of serum CRP at bleeding was 0.78 for 30-day mortality (P < .001). In the validation set, serum CRP was also significantly higher in the expired than survived patients, of which AUROC was 0.73 (P < .001). In predicting 30-day mortality, the AUROC with serum CRP was not inferior to that of other scoring systems.Serum CRP at bleeding can be simply used to identify the patients with high mortality after acute non-variceal UGIB.     

Validation of prognostic scores for clinical outcomes in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding

Background. The Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford, and AIMS65 are useful and validated scoring systems for predicting the outcomes of patients with nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding. However, there are no validated evidence for using them to predict outcomes on variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the prognostic accuracy of different nonvariceal bleeding scores with other liver-specific scoring systems in cirrhotic patients. Material and methods. A retrospective multicenter study that included 160 cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. The AUROC’s to predict in-hospital mortality, and rebleeding, were analyzed for each scoring system.Results. Overall in-hospital mortality occurred in 13% and in-hospital rebleeding in 12% of patients. The systems with the best AUROC value for predicting mortality were MELD (0.828; 95% CI 0.748-0.909), and AIMS65 (0.817; 95% CI 0.724-0.909). The best score systems for predicting rebleeding were Glasgow-Blatchford (0.756; 95% CI 0.640-0.827), and Rockall (0.691; 95% CI 0.580-0.802).Conclusions. In addition to liver-specific scores, the AIMS65 score is accurate for predicting in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. Other scoring systems might be useful for predicting significant clinical outcomes in these patients.     

三种评分系统在肝硬化食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血患者风险评估中的应用

目的探讨MELD(model for end-stage liver disease)、GBS(glasgow-blatchford score)、AIMS65评分系统在肝硬化食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血(esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding,EGVB)患者风险评估中的临床应用价值。方法对天津医科大学总医院消化内科2015年1月1日至2018年3月1日入院的182例肝硬化EGVB患者进行回顾分析,依据MELD、GBS、AIMS65评分系统标准针对每例患者进行评分,评估各评分系统正确将肝硬化EGVB归为"高风险患者"的能力,并绘制受试者工作特征曲线(receiver-operating characteristic curve,ROC),采用曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)评估各评分系统针对不同临床结局(输血、再出血、住院死亡)的预测能力,AUC>0.7认为有较高准确性。结果临床结局包括输血113例(62.1%)、再出血31例(17.0%)、死亡11例(6.0%)。MELD评分得分为7~25分,其中得分<9分4例(2.2%);GBS评分得分为3~16分;AIMS65评分得分为0~3分,其中得分0~1分139例(76.4%,0分68例、1分71例)。MELD、GBS、AIMS65评分系统预测输血的AUC分别为0.514(95%CI:0.439~0.589)、0.681(95%CI:0.608~0.748)、0.669(95%CI:0.596~0.737);预测再出血的AUC分别为0.525(95%CI:0.449~0.599)、0.528(95%CI:0.453~0.602)、0.580(95%CI:0.505~0.652);预测住院死亡的AUC分别为0.642(95%CI:0.567~0.711)、0.581(95%CI:0.505~0.653)、0.786(95%CI:0.719~0.843),AIMS65优于MELD(P=0.0836)和GBS(P=0.0470)。结论GBS能正确将肝硬化EGVB患者归类为"高风险人群",优于AIMS65和MELD评分系统。对于肝硬化EGVB患者,3种评分系统对输血和再出血的预测价值均不高,AIMS65对住院死亡有较高的预测价值。     

Scoring systems for peptic ulcer bleeding: which one to use?

AIM To compare the Glasgow-Blatchford score(GBS), Rockall score(RS) and Baylor bleeding score(BBS) in predicting clinical outcomes and need for interventions in patients with bleeding peptic ulcers. METHODS Between January 2008 and December 2013, 1012consecutive patients admitted with peptic ulcer bleeding(PUB) were prospectively followed. The pre-endoscopic RS, BBS and GBS, as well as the post-endoscopic diagnostic scores(RS and BBS) were calculated for all patients according to their urgent upper endoscopy findings. Area under the receiver-operating characteristics(AUROC) curves were calculated for the prediction of lethal outcome, rebleeding, needs for blood transfusion and/or surgical intervention, and the optimal cutoff values were evaluated.RESULTS PUB accounted for 41.9% of all upper gastrointestinal tract bleeding, 5.2% patients died and 5.4% patients underwent surgery. By comparing the AUROC curves of the aforementioned pre-endoscopic scores, the RS best predicted lethal outcome(AUROC 0.82 vs 0.67 vs0.63, respectively), but the GBS best predicted need for hospital-based intervention or 30-d mortality(AUROC0.84 vs 0.57 vs 0.64), rebleeding(AUROC 0.75 vs 0.61 vs 0.53), need for blood transfusion(AUROC 0.83 vs0.63 vs 0.58) and surgical intervention(0.82 vs 0.63 vs 0.52) The post-endoscopic RS was also better than the post-endoscopic BBS in predicting lethal outcome(AUROC 0.82 vs 0.69, respectively).CONCLUSION The RS is the best predictor of mortality and the GBS is the best predictor of rebleeding, need for blood transfusion and/or surgical intervention in patients with PUB. There is no one 'perfect score' and we suggest that these two tests be used concomitantly.     

Comparison of coronary atherosclerotic disease burden between ST‐elevation myocardial infarction and non‐ST‐elevation myocardial infarction: Non‐culprit Gensini score and non‐culprit SYNTAX score

BackgroundPatients with non‐ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) have worse long‐term prognoses than those with ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).HypothesisIt may be attributable to more extended coronary atherosclerotic disease burden in patients with NSTEMI.MethodsThis study consisted of consecutive 231 patients who underwent coronary intervention for myocardial infarction (MI). To assess the extent and severity of atherosclerotic disease burden of non‐culprit coronary arteries, two scoring systems (Gensini score and synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with Taxus and cardiac surgery [SYNTAX] score) were modified by subtracting the score of the culprit lesion: the non‐culprit Gensini score and the non‐culprit SYNTAX score.ResultsPatients with NSTEMI had more multi‐vessel disease, initial thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) flow grade 2/3, and final TIMI flow grade 3 than those with STEMI. As compared to STEMI, patients with NSTEMI had significantly higher non‐culprit Gensini score (16.3 ± 19.8 vs. 31.2 ± 25.4, p < 0.001) and non‐culprit SYNTAX score (5.8 ± 7.0 vs. 11.1 ± 9.7, p < 0.001).ConclusionsPatients with NSTEMI had more advanced coronary atherosclerotic disease burden including non‐obstruction lesions, which may at least in part explain higher incidence of cardiovascular events in these patients.     

Clinical significance of coronavirus disease 2019 in hospitalized patients with myocardial injury

BackgroundThe clinical significance of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) as an associate of myocardial injury is controversial.HypothesisType 2 MI/Myocardial Injury are associated with worse outcomes if complicated by COVID‐19.MethodsThis longitudinal cohort study involved consecutive patients admitted to a large urban hospital. Myocardial injury was determined using laboratory records as ≥1 hs‐TnI result >99th percentile (male: >34 ng/L; female: >16 ng/L). Endotypes were defined according to the Fourth Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction (MI) and COVID‐19 determined using PCR. Outcomes of patients with myocardial injury with and without COVID‐19 were assessed.ResultsOf 346 hospitalized patients with elevated hs‐TnI, 35 (10.1%) had laboratory‐confirmed COVID‐19 (median age [IQR]; 65 [59–74]; 64.8% male vs. COVID‐19 negative: 74 [63–83] years; 43.7% male). Cardiac endotypes by COVID‐19 status (yes vs. no) were: Type 1 MI (0 [0%] vs. 115 [100%]; p < .0005), Type 2 MI (13 [16.5%] vs. 66 [83.5%]; p = .045), and non‐ischemic myocardial injury (cardiac: 4 [5.8%] vs. 65 [94.2%]; p = .191, non‐cardiac:19 [22.9%] vs. 64 [77.%]; p < .0005). COVID‐19 patients had less comorbidity (median [IQR] Charlson Comorbidity Index: 3.0 [3.0] vs. 5.0 [4.0]; p = .001), similar hs‐TnI concentrations (median [IQR] initial: 46 [113] vs. 62 [138]; p = .199, peak: 122 [474] vs. 79 [220] ng/L; p = .564), longer admission (days) (median [IQR]: 14[19] vs. 6[12]; p = .001) and higher in‐hospital mortality (63.9% vs. 11.3%; OR = 13.2; 95%CI: 5.90, 29.7).ConclusionsCardiac sequelae of COVID‐19 typically manifest as Non‐cardiac myocardial injury/Type 2MI in younger patients with less co‐morbidity. Paradoxically, the admission duration and in‐hospital mortality are increased.     

Construction and validation of prognostic nomograms for elderly patients with metastatic non‐small cell lung cancer

BackgroundMetastatic non‐small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is mostly seen in older patients and is associated with poor prognosis. There is no reliable method to predict the prognosis of elderly patients (≥60 years old) with metastatic NSCLC. The aim of our study was to develop and validate nomograms which accurately predict survival in this group of patients.MethodsNSCLC patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were all identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Nomograms were constructed by significant clinicopathological variables (p < 0.05) selected in multivariate Cox analysis regression.ResultsA total of 9584 patients met the inclusion criteria and were randomly allocated in the training (n = 6712) and validation (n = 2872) cohorts. In training cohort, independent prognostic factors included age, gender, race, grade, tumor site, pathology, T stage, N stage, radiotherapy, surgery, chemotherapy, and metastatic site (p < 0.05) for lung cancer‐specific survival (LCSS) and overall survival (OS) were identified by the Cox regression. Nomograms for predicting 1‐, 2‐, and 3‐years LCSS and OS were established and showed excellent predictive performance with a higher C‐index than that of the 7th TNM staging system (LCSS: training cohort: 0.712 vs. 0.534; p < 0.001; validation cohort: 0.707 vs. 0.528; p < 0.001; OS: training cohort: 0.713 vs. 0.531; p < 0.001; validation cohort: 0.710 vs. 0.528; p < 0.001). The calibration plots showed good consistency from the predicted to actual survival probabilities both in training cohort and validation cohort. Moreover, the decision curve analysis (DCA) achieved better net clinical benefit compared with TNM staging models.ConclusionsWe established and validated novel nomograms for predicting LCSS and OS in elderly patients with metastatic NSCLC with desirable discrimination and calibration ability. These nomograms could provide personalized risk assessment for these patients and assist in clinical decision.     

Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score,as a prognostic factor for post-operative morbidity and mortality in cirrhotic patients,undergoing hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma

Background/aims:

To evaluate the ability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in predicting the post-hepatectomy outcome for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods:

Between 2001 and 2004, 69 cirrhotic patients with HCC underwent hepatectomy and the results were retrospectively analysed. MELD score was associated with post-operative mortality and morbidity, hospital stay and 3-year survival.

Results:

Seventeen major and 52 minor resections were performed. Thirty-day mortality rate was 7.2%. MELD ≤ 9 was associated with no peri-operative mortality vs. 19% when MELD > 9 (P < 0.02). Overall morbidity rate was 36.23%; 48% when MELD > 9 vs. 25% when MELD ≤ 9 (P < 0.02). Median hospital stay was 12 days [8.8 days, when MELD ≤ 9 and 15.6 days when MELD > 9 (P = 0.037)]. Three-year survival reached 49% (66% when MELD ≤ 9; 32% when MELD > 9 (P < 0.01). In multivariate analysis, MELD > 9 (P < 0.01), clinical tumour symptoms (P < 0.05) and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (P < 0.05) were independent predictors of peri-operative mortality; MELD > 9 (P < 0.01), tumour size >5 cm (P < 0.01), high tumour grade (P = 0.01) and absence of tumour capsule (P < 0.01) were independent predictors of decreased long-term survival.

Conclusion:

MELD score seems to predict outcome of cirrhotic patients with HCC, after hepatectomy.     

QT and Tpeak‐Tend interval variability: Predictive electrical markers of hospital stay length and mortality in acute decompensated heart failure. Preliminary data

BackgroundAs previously reported, an increased repolarization temporal imbalance induces a higher risk of total/cardiovascular mortality.HypothesisThe aim of this study was to assess if the electrocardiographic short period markers of repolarization temporal dispersion could be predictive of the hospital stay length and mortality in patients with acutely decompensated chronic heart failure (CHF).MethodMean, standard deviation (SD), and normalized variance (VN) of QT (QT) and Tpeak‐Tend (Te) were obtained on 5‐min ECG recording in 139 patients hospitalized for acutely decompensated CHF, subgrouping the patients for hospital length of stay (LoS): less or equal 1 week (≤1 W) and those with more than 1 week (>1 W).ResultsWe observed an increase of short‐period repolarization variables (TeSD and TeVN, p < .05), a decrease of blood pressure (p < .05), lower ejection fraction (p < .05), and higher plasma level of biomarkers (NT‐proBNP, p < .001; Troponin, p < .05) in >1 W LoS subjects. 30‐day deceased subjects reported significantly higher levels of QTSD (p < .05), Te mean (p < .001), TeSD (p < .05), QTVN (p < .05) in comparison to the survivors. Multivariable Cox regression analysis reported that TeVN was a risk factor for longer hospital stay (hazard ratio: 1.04, 95% confidence limit: 1.01–1.08, p < .05); whereas, a longer Te mean was associated with higher mortality risk (hazard ratio: 1.02, 95% confidence limit: 1.01–1.03, p < .05).ConclusionA longer hospital stay is considered a clinical surrogate of CHF severity, we confirmed this finding. Therefore, these electrical and simple parameters could be used as noninvasive, transmissible, inexpensive markers of CHF severity and mortality.     

Parsonnet score is a good predictor of the duration of intensive care unit stay following cardiac surgery

OBJECTIVE—To investigate the value of the Parsonnet score (PS) in identifying preoperatively patients that are likely to spend < 24 hours on the intensive care unit (ICU) following cardiac surgery.
METHOD—Prospectively collected data on 5591 patients were analysed. PS, mortality, the length of stay on the ICU (ICU-LOS), number of patients with clinical evidence of stroke, need for haemofiltration, resternotomy for bleeding, tracheostomy, and use of intra-aortic balloon pump were documented as outcomes. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve constructed using PS as a predictor of ICU stay < 24 hours identified a PS of 10 as the best cut off point that would predict ICU-LOS < 24 hours. The patients were therefore stratified by PS into two groups, those with a PS of 0 to 9 (PS 0-9) and those with a PS of 10 and above (PS 10+).
RESULTS—The ROC curve constructed using PS as a predictor of ICU stay < 24 hours had an area under the curve of 0.70 (0.01). The maximum efficiency of the test was at a sensitivity of 0.68. This corresponded to PS 10. The positive predictive value of the test at this score was 90.5%. Patients with PS 0-9 had a mean ICU stay of 1.49 days, while patients with PS 10+ had a mean ICU stay of 2.89 days (p = 0.01). The risk of stroke, use of intra-aortic balloon pump, requirement for haemofiltration, need for tracheostomy, and risk of resternotomy for bleeding were each significantly less in patients with PS 0-9 versus those with a score of PS 10+ (p < 0.01 in all cases). The risk of a single complication was 4.7% (PS 0-9) v 15.2% (PS 10+) (p < 0.01).
CONCLUSION—PS is an impartial and objective method of predicting postoperative complications and ICU stay < 24 hours. This is of value in selecting a cohort of patients likely to maintain a smooth flow of patients through the cardiothoracic unit when resources are limited to a few free ICU beds.


Keywords: Parsonnet score; intensive care; length of hospital stay; rationing     

Severe COVID‐19 pneumonia in an intensive care setting and comparisons with historic severe viral pneumonia due to other viruses

PurposeSevere viral pneumonia is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Recent COVID‐19 pandemic continues to impose significant health burden worldwide, and individual pandemic waves often lead to a large surge in the intensive care unit (ICU) admissions for respiratory support. Comparisons of severe SARS‐CoV‐2 pneumonia with other seasonal and nonseasonal severe viral infections are rarely studied in an intensive care setting.MethodsA retrospective cohort study comparing patients admitted to ICU with COVID‐19 between March and June 2020 and those with viral pneumonias between January and December 2019. We compared patient specific demographic variables, duration of illness, ICU organ supportive measures and outcomes between both groups.ResultsAnalysis of 93 COVID‐19 (Group 1) and 52 other viral pneumonia patients (Group 2) showed an increased proportion of obesity (42% vs. 23%, p = 0.02), non‐White ethnicities (41% vs. 6%, p < 0.001) and diabetes mellitus (30% vs. 13%, p = 0.03) in Group 1, with lower prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)/asthma (16% vs. 34%, p = 0.02). In Group 1, the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio was much lower (6.7 vs. 10, p = 0.006), and invasive mechanical ventilation (58% vs. 26%, p < 0.001) was more common. Length of ICU (8 vs. 4, p < 0.001) and hospital stay (22 vs. 11, p < 0.001) was prolonged in Group 1, with no significant difference in mortality. Influenza A and rhinovirus were the most common pathogens in Group 2 (26% each).ConclusionsKey differences were identified within demographics (obesity, ethnicity, age, ICU scores, comorbidities) and organ support. Despite these variations, there were no significant differences in mortality between both groups. Further studies with larger sample sizes would allow for further assessment of clinical parameters in these patients.     

Acute cardiovascular hospitalizations and illness severity before and during the COVID‐19 pandemic

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) hospitalizations declined worldwide during the COVID‐19 pandemic. It is unclear how shelter‐in‐place orders affected acute CVD hospitalizations, illness severity, and outcomes.HypothesisCOVID‐19 pandemic was associated with reduced acute CVD hospitalizations (heart failure [HF], acute coronary syndrome [ACS], and stroke [CVA]), and worse HF illness severity.MethodsWe compared acute CVD hospitalizations at Duke University Health System before and after North Carolina''s shelter‐in‐place order (January 1–March 29 vs. March 30–August 31), and used parallel comparison cohorts from 2019. We explored illness severity among admitted HF patients using ADHERE (“high risk”: >2 points) and GWTG‐HF (“>10%”: >57 points) in‐hospital mortality risk scores, as well as echocardiography‐derived parameters.ResultsComparing hospitalizations during January 1–March 29 (N = 1618) vs. March 30–August 31 (N = 2501) in 2020, mean daily CVD hospitalizations decreased (18.2 vs. 16.1 per day, p = .0036), with decreased length of stay (8.4 vs. 7.5 days, p = .0081) and no change in in‐hospital mortality (4.7 vs. 5.3%, p = .41). HF hospitalizations decreased (9.0 vs. 7.7 per day, p = .0019), with higher ADHERE (“high risk”: 2.5 vs. 4.5%; p = .030), but unchanged GWTG‐HF (“>10%”: 5.3 vs. 4.6%; p = .45), risk groups. Mean LVEF was lower (39.0 vs. 37.2%, p = .034), with higher mean LV mass (262.4 vs. 276.6 g, p = .014).ConclusionsCVD hospitalizations, HF illness severity, and echocardiography measures did not change between admission periods in 2019. Evaluating short‐term data, the COVID‐19 shelter‐in‐place order was associated with reductions in acute CVD hospitalizations, particularly HF, with no significant increase in in‐hospital mortality and only minor differences in HF illness severity.     

Evaluation of the impact of an integrated care pathway for pulmonary embolism: a quasi-experimental pre-post study

BackgroundAn integrated care pathway (ICP) is intended to improve the management of prevalent resource-consuming, life-threatening diseases. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the quality of patient care improved with the establishment of a dedicated unit for pulmonary embolism (PE).MethodsA quasi-experimental pre-post study (pre: years 2010–2013; post: 2015–2020; year 2014, “washing” period) of PE patients ≥18 years (January 2010–June 2020). The intervention involved the implementation of an ICP for PE.ResultsThe sample was composed of 1,142 patients (510 pre-intervention and 612 post-intervention) without significant differences between the two populations. In the post-intervention period, significant reductions were observed in the median length of hospital stay (LOS) (8 vs. 6 days); time to start of oral anticoagulation therapy (4.5 vs. 3.5 days; P<0.001); and the percentage of patients with high-risk PE in whom recanalization was not contraindicated (66.7% vs. 96%; P=0.009). In-hospital and 30-day mortality decreased, although not significantly (4.5% vs. 2.8%; P=0.188; 6.1% vs. 5.2%; P=0.531, respectively). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the median LOS intervention decreased significantly according to the service where patients were referred to, and with the use of the simplified PESI. During follow-up, lifelong anticoagulation was prescribed to a higher proportion of patients in the post-intervention period (30.7% vs. 69.3%; P<0.001).ConclusionsAlthough an ICP for PE does not reduce mortality significantly, it improves the quality of patient care.     

Global prevalence of prediabetes in children and adolescents: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

BackgroundPrediabetes is a pivotal risk factor for developing diabetes. This meta‐analysis was performed to assess the global prevalence of childhood prediabetes.MethodsA systematic search was conducted for studies of prediabetes prevalence in the general pediatric population from inception until December 2021. Random‐effects meta‐analysis was used to combine the data. Variations in the prevalence estimates in different subgroups (age group, sex, setting, investigation period, body mass index [BMI] group, family history of diabetes, diagnosis criteria, World Health Organization [WHO] and World Bank [WB] regions) were examined by subgroup meta‐analysis.ResultsA total of 48 studies were included in the meta‐analysis. The pooled prevalence was 8.84% (95% CI, 6.74%‐10.95%) for prediabetes in childhood. Subgroup meta‐analyses showed that the prevalence was higher in males than females (8.98% vs 8.74%, P < .01), in older compared to younger children (7.56% vs. 2.51%, p < 0.01), in urban compared to rural areas (6.78% vs. 2.47, p < 0.01), and higher in children with a family history of diabetes than in those without such a history (7.59% vs. 6.80%, p < 0.01). We observed an upward trend in prediabetes prevalence from 0.93% to 10.66% over past decades (p < 0.01). The pooled prevalence increased from 7.64% to 14.27% with increased BMI (p < 0.01). Pooled prevalence was the lowest for criterion A among different diagnosis criteria (p < 0.01). For WHO and WB regions, the European Region and high‐income countries yielded the lowest pooled prevalence (p < 0.01).ConclusionsElevated prediabetes prevalence in childhood reaches an alarming level. Intensive lifestyle modification is needed to improve the prediabetes epidemic.     

Índice Imunoinflamatório Sistêmico como Determinante de Carga Aterosclerótica e Pacientes de Alto Risco com Síndromes Coronarianas Agudas

BackgroundSystemic immune-inflammatory index (SII), which is derived from neutrophil, platelet and lymphocyte counts, represents the homeostatic balance among inflammatory, immune and thrombotic status. The systemic immune-inflammatory index is superior to indices such as neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio in predicting prognosis in various malignancies, while it is shown to predict future cardiac events better than traditional risk factors after coronary intervention.ObjectivesHerein, we aimed to evaluate the relationship of the systemic immune-inflammatory index with atherosclerotic burden and in-hospital complications in acute coronary syndrome patients.MethodsThe clinical outcomes, such as extent of myocardial damage, atherosclerotic burden, bleeding, acute kidney injury, duration of hospital stay and in-hospital mortality, were evaluated in a retrospective cohort of 309 consecutive acute coronary syndrome patients. The systemic immune-inflammatory index was calculated as (Platelet X Neutrophil)/Lymphocyte count on admission. Study population was categorized into tertiles with regard to systemic immune-inflammatory index. A p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant.ResultsThe highest systemic immune-inflammatory index values were within ST elevation myocardial infarction patients (641.4 in unstable angina pectoris, 843.0 in non-ST elevation myocardial infarction patients and 996.0 in ST elevation myocardial infarction patients; p=0.004). Maximal troponin concentration (0.94 vs. 1.26 vs. 3; p<0.001), number of diseased vessels (1 vs. 2 vs. 2; p<0.001), the SYNTAX (synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with taxus and coronary artery bypass grafting) score (9 vs. 14 vs. 17.5; p<0.001) and duration of hospital stay (2 vs. 2 vs. 3; p<0.001) also increased with increasing SII_tertile(tertile1 vs. tertile 2 vs. tertile 3). Systemic immune-inflammatory index was an independent predictor of SYNTAX score (ß: 0.232 [0.001 to 0.003]; p<0.001), extent of myocardial damage (ß: 0.152 [0 to 0.001]; p=0.005) and duration of hospital stay (ß: 0.168 [0.0 to 0.001]; p=0.003).ConclusionsThis study has demonstrated that the systemic immune-inflammatory index, a simple hematological index, is a marker of atherosclerotic burden and longer hospital stay on well-known risk factors in high risk acute coronary syndrome patients.     

Impact of albumin infusion on prognosis of intensive care unit patients with congestive heart failure-hypoalbuminemia overlap: a retrospective cohort study

BackgroundHypoalbuminemia is common in congestive heart failure (CHF) patients. Serum albumin is associated with the prognosis of CHF patients. Impact of albumin infusion on prognosis of patients with CHF-hypoalbuminemia overlap remains unclear. We retrospectively investigated the impact of albumin infusion on prognosis of intensive care unit (ICU) patients with CHF-hypoalbuminemia overlap.MethodsWe enrolled all patients whose diagnosis included CHF [ICD-9 (international classification of diseases 9) code =428.0] at first ICU admission from the MIMIC III (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III) database, and excluded those with missing serum albumin values, with serum albumin >3.4 g/dL or <18 years old. According to the exposure of albumin infusion during hospitalization, patients were stratified into non-albumin and albumin groups. Propensity-score matching (PSM) was performed (1:1 ratio) to control for baseline confounding. Outcome measures were in-hospital mortality as well as length of stay in the ICU (ICU LOS) and the hospital (hospital LOS).ResultsThere were 3,190 eligible patients in the initial search. Patients with albumin infusion had markedly higher in-hospital mortality (36.42% vs. 21.81%, P<0.001), longer ICU LOS [median 6.93 (3.39–14.82) vs. 3.84 (1.96–8.00) days, P<0.001], and longer hospital LOS [median 17.46 (11.45–28.33) vs. 10.92 (6.81–18.00) days, P<0.001] than those without albumin infusion. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that albumin infusion [odds ratio (OR), 1.509; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.164–1.957; P=0.002] was significantly associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality. After PSM, a cohort of 429 pairs of patients was included in the final analysis. Patients with albumin infusion had markedly higher in-hospital mortality (34.97% vs. 27.27%, P=0.015), longer ICU LOS [median 8.43 (4.33–16.28) vs. 6.43 (3.07–13.66) days, P<0.001], and longer hospital LOS [median 16.92 (11.27–28.06) vs. 13.33 (8.00–21.10) days, P<0.001] than those without albumin infusion. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that albumin infusion (OR, 1.594; 95% CI, 1.143–2.223; P=0.006) was significantly associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality.ConclusionsAlbumin infusion increased in-hospital mortality, ICU LOS, and hospital LOS in ICU patients with CHF-hypoalbuminemia overlap.