Risks,prices, and positions: A social network analysis of illegal drug trafficking in the world-economy

BackgroundIllegal drug prices are extremely high, compared to similar goods. There is, however, considerable variation in value depending on place, market level and type of drugs. A prominent framework for the study of illegal drugs is the “risks and prices” model (Reuter & Kleiman, 1986). Enforcement is seen as a “tax” added to the regular price. In this paper, it is argued that such economic models are not sufficient to explain price variations at country-level. Drug markets are analysed as global trade networks in which a country's position has an impact on various features, including illegal drug prices.MethodologyThis paper uses social network analysis (SNA) to explain price markups between pairs of countries involved in the trafficking of illegal drugs between 1998 and 2007. It aims to explore a simple question: why do prices increase between two countries? Using relational data from various international organizations, separate trade networks were built for cocaine, heroin and cannabis. Wholesale price markups are predicted with measures of supply, demand, risks of seizures, geographic distance and global positioning within the networks. Reported prices (in $US) and purchasing power parity-adjusted values are analysed.ResultsDrug prices increase more sharply when drugs are headed to countries where law enforcement imposes higher costs on traffickers. The position and role of a country in global drug markets are also closely associated with the value of drugs. Price markups are lower if the destination country is a transit to large potential markets. Furthermore, price markups for cocaine and heroin are more pronounced when drugs are exported to countries that are better positioned in the legitimate world-economy, suggesting that relations in legal and illegal markets are directed in opposite directions.ConclusionConsistent with the world-system perspective, evidence is found of coherent world drug markets driven by both local realities and international relations.     

The potential for accurately measuring behavioral and economic dimensions of consumption, prices, and markets for illegal drugs

There are numerous analytic and methodological limitations to current measures of drug market activity. This paper explores the structure of markets and individual user behavior to provide an integrated understanding of behavioral and economic (and market) aspects of illegal drug use with an aim toward developing improved procedures for measurement. This involves understanding the social processes that structure illegal distribution networks and drug users' interactions with them. These networks are where and how social behaviors, prices, and markets for illegal drugs intersect. Our focus is upon getting an up close measurement of these activities. Building better measures of consumption behaviors necessitates building better rapport with subjects than typically achieved with one-time surveys in order to overcome withholding and underreporting and to get a comprehensive understanding of the processes involved. This can be achieved through repeated interviews and observations of behaviors. This paper also describes analytic advances that could be adopted to direct this inquiry including behavioral templates, and insights into the economic valuation of labor inputs and cash expenditures for various illegal drugs. Additionally, the paper makes recommendations to funding organizations for developing the mechanisms that would support behavioral scientists to weigh specimens and to collect small samples for laboratory analysis-by providing protection from the potential for arrest. The primary focus is upon U.S. markets. The implications for other countries are discussed.     

Fear of sense in the street heroin market

Open street drug markets in the western industrialized world often create fear and outrage in the community. Many arguments posited by resident groups and local businesses against the introduction of harm reduction initiatives, such as fixed site needle and syringe programmes (NSP) and supervised injecting facilities (SIF), are based on the fear that such facilities will attract street drug markets. In this paper, we explore the fear produced in a city's encounter with street heroin use. Through linking a Deleuzian ontology to spatial practices associated with the street drug market, we provide a deeper understanding of the fear of public drug use. After examining how fear is produced, we then connect fear with the flows of capital in street drug markets and to the political and economic outcomes from such encounters.     

The Melding of Drug Markets in Houston After Katrina: Dealer and User Perspectives

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the majority of routine activities in New Orleans were disrupted, including the illegal drug market. The large-scale relocation of New Orleans evacuees (NOEs), including many illegal drug users and sellers, to host cities led to a need for new sources of illegal drugs. This need was quickly satisfied by two initially distinct drug markets (1) drug dealers from New Orleans who were themselves evacuees and (2) established drug dealers in the host cities. To be expected, the two markets did not operate indefinitely in parallel fashion. This paper describes the evolving, operational relationship between these two drug markets over time, with a focus on Houston. We analyze the reciprocal evolution of these two markets at two significant points in time: at the beginning of the relocation (2005) and two years later (2007). The overall trend is towards a melding of the two drug markets, as evidenced primarily by decreases in drug-related violence and the cross-fertilization of drug tastes. We describe the process by which the two drug markets are melded over time, in order to seek a better understanding of the social processes by which drug markets in general evolve.     

QFII制度对中国证券市场的影响

文章基于分析QFII制度在台湾、韩国和印度等国家实施后对证券市场产生的不同程度的影响 ,阐述了QFII制度是一项通过允许一国 (地区 )资本市场与国际资本的有限制流动 ,从而解决在资本项目管制条件下向外资开放本土证券市场问题的有效措施。QFII制度将以其成熟的国际资本市场运作方式、先进的管理模式对中国证券市场在投资理念和盈利模式等方面产生积极影响。     

CONDITIONS THAT INCREASE DRUG MARKET INVOLVEMENT: THE INVITATIONAL EDGE AND THE CASE OF MEXICANS IN SOUTH TEXAS

Research on drug trafficking has not been able to discern the exact nature of illegal drug markets and the relationship between their individual and group participants. This article delineates the role of Mexican immigrants and Mexican-American participants involved in the stratified drug market of South Texas. This article synthesizes ethnographic materials drawn from two previous National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) studies in order identify the different types of drug distribution behaviors that occur within the groups, the differentiated roles of individuals, the organizational framework, and most significantly, the processes that link market participants to others outside of the drug market. This illegal behavior can be interpreted as an adaptive mechanism that is a direct response to the marginal economic status imposed by macro socio-economical background factors. As well, we conclude that the specific foreground factors of the opportunities offered by the context, culture, and proximity of the U.S./Mexico border and invitational edges explain this behavior. There are both parallels and particular differences between the South Texas case and the structuring and functioning of informal legal and illegal markets that are characteristic of other economically disadvantaged communities.     

Criminal entrepreneurs as pioneers,intermediaries, and arbitrageurs in borderland economies

Many discussions of mafia and criminal entrepreneurs typically focus on violence and illegality, and less on their possible roles in rural transformation, even when they are located in borderland economies linking the subsistence cultivators of illicit crops to regional and global markets. This paper assesses the life stories of drug lords, the Castaño brothers of Colombia and Roberto Suárez Gomez of Bolivia, to draw inferences into how such rural elites in the illicit drugs trade are not only specialists in crime but are also actors who regulate and manipulate, often coercively, access to land and resources, mobilise labour and shape its divisions, and promote certain forms of capital accumulation. This paper contends that a better understanding of the roles of these rural elites as pioneers for capital, intermediaries in commodity chains, and arbitrageurs between state and borderlands may provide ways of unpacking key challenges to peacebuilding and economic transformation in borderlands where illicit economies thrive.     

Drug related deaths between 2008 and 2011. A retrospective study in 32 Romanian counties

The purpose of this study is to determine the pattern of drug related deaths in Romania between 2008 and 2011 by analyzing the medical-legal cases, from a significant proportion of Romanian Counties (out of 41 plus the capital), in which the direct causal link between drug overdose and death was drug related. Material and methods. 446 forensic toxicology cases were analyzed in a four year period, obtained from more than two thirds of the counties in Romania. Results. 54.26% yielded a positive toxicological analysis, most often with benzodiazepines, opiates, barbiturates and cannabinoids. Males around 31 years old represented the most affected group. Illegal drug related deaths were more frequent in males and non-illegal drug related deaths were proportionally more frequent in females. Discussions and conclusions. The pattern of consumption is similar to the one obtained by similar studies in neighboring countries. The city capital has a very distinct pattern of consumption compared to other cities/counties.     

The interaction between intellectual property and drug regulatory systems: global perspectives

Regulatory compliance in the development, production and sale of new drugs accounts for the largest single expense in bringing a drug product to market. To justify developmental and regulatory compliance costs, drug innovators turn to the intellectual property (IP) system to provide a means for securing returns on investment. Because the drug regulatory system in most countries operates in isolation of the IP system, one of the greatest challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry is the extent to which IP rights can be managed against an independent drug regulatory system. Many regulatory bodies in developed countries have sought to ensure a compromise between the rights of generic companies and IP owners by including safeguards in the regulatory framework, such as patent linking and data protection; however, these efforts are yet to be applied in some of the biggest potential drug markets in emerging economies.     

Presence of illegal drugs in drivers involved in fatal road traffic accidents in Spain

This study investigated the presence of illegal drugs in the blood of 285 fatally injured drivers in Spain. Illegal drugs were detected in 10.2% of all samples. Illicit drugs alone were detected in 2.5% and together with other substances in 7.7%. Cocaine was the most common drug detected. The mean number (+/- S.D.) of substances detected was 2.6 +/- 1.2: consisting of 46 illegal drugs, 14 alcohol cases and 16 medicines. Three concentration levels of the different substances have been established: low, medium and high-toxic. In 68.9% of the samples in which an illegal drug was detected, a substance was also found at the high-toxic level. The results show that illegal drugs are commonly detected in road accident victims.     

Delivery dilemmas: How drug cryptomarket users identify and seek to reduce their risk of detection by law enforcement

BackgroundCryptomarkets represent an important drug market innovation by bringing buyers and sellers of illegal drugs together in a ‘hidden’ yet public online marketplace. We ask: How do cryptomarket drug sellers and buyers perceive the risks of detection and arrest, and attempt to limit them?MethodsWe analyse selected texts produced by vendors operating on the first major drug cryptomarket, Silk Road (N = 600) alongside data extracted from the marketplace discussion forum that include buyer perspectives. We apply Fader’s (2016) framework for understanding how drug dealers operating ‘offline’ attempt to reduce the risk of detection and arrest: visibility reduction, charge reduction and risk distribution.ResultsWe characterize drug transactions on cryptomarkets as ‘stretched’ across time, virtual and physical space, and handlers, changing the location and nature of risks faced by cryptomarket users. The key locations of risk of detection and arrest by law enforcement were found in ‘offline’ activities of cryptomarket vendors (packaging and delivery drop-offs) and buyers (receiving deliveries). Strategies in response involved either creating or disrupting routine activities in line with a non-offending identity. Use of encrypted communication was seen as ‘good practice’ but often not employed. ‘Drop shipping’ allowed some Silk Road vendors to sell illegal drugs without the necessity of handling them.ConclusionSilk Road participants neither viewed themselves as immune to, nor passively accepting of, the risk of detection and arrest. Rational choice theorists have viewed offending decisions as constrained by limited access to relevant information. Cryptomarkets as ‘illicit capital’ sharing communities provide expanded and low-cost access to information enabling drug market participants to make more accurate assessments of the risk of apprehension. The abundance of drug market intelligence available to those on both sides of the law may function to speed up innovation in illegal drug markets, as well as necessitate and facilitate the development of law enforcement responses.     

Drug policy and global regulatory capitalism: The case of new psychoactive substances (NPS)

The recent emergence of vibrant markets in ‘new psychoactive substances’ or ‘legal highs’ has posed significant new challenges for drug policy. These partly concern what to do about them but the speed and complexity of change has also raised difficulties for how policy responses should be developed. Existing drug policy systems appear too slow and cumbersome to keep up with the pace of change, remaining locked in large part within ‘old’ ways of thinking that centre almost exclusively around the deployment (or not) of the criminal law and its related enforcement apparatus. In this paper, it is argued that we need to rethink the problem through the lens of regulation, in order to learn lessons from other sectors where more agile responses to changing markets and business innovation have often proved possible. By examining examples drawn from these other areas, an alternative policy-making framework can be developed, involving a more flexible mix of state regulation, civil society action and private law mechanisms. This new approach is founded on a recognition of the networked and polycentric character of effective market governance in an era of global regulatory capitalism.     

Crime displacement in digital drug markets

Background Crackdowns on urban sites with concentrated criminal activity are sometimes followed by geographical relocation of crime. Is this also the case in cyberspace, where illegal websites and online networks can be wiped clean, but also quickly rebuilt and replaced on new servers and URLs?Methods I address this question in three steps. First, I measure MDMA trade in a large digital market for drugs, before and after the arrest of a leading MDMA seller in the same market. Second, I count the number of available digital drug markets and vendor shops in the period February 2014–June 2018, to see if websites closed by police were replaced by new ones. Third, I track the digital movement and trading activities of individual drug sellers, before and after law enforcement shut down two large markets.Results After police arrested a leading MDMA seller, other MDMA sellers filled most – but not all – of the gap. A major law enforcement crackdown reduced the number of available markets, but new ones were created, and market counts eventually surpassed the previous peak. When law enforcement shut down two big markets, many of the sellers relocated to other e-commerce sites and continued high-earning operations there.Conclusion Arrests and market closures redirect digital drug trade to other sellers and markets. Hot spot policing in cyberspace might produce temporary results, but is arguably ineffective in the long run, as actors use information and communication technology’s unique capacities to reorganize.     

Substance use and abuse among men using the Internet specifically to find partners for unprotected sex

This study was based on a national random sample of 332 MSM who use the Internet to seek men with whom they can engage in unprotected sex. Data collection was conducted via telephone interviews between January 2008 and May 2009. Illegal drug use was highly prevalent in this population, particularly when compared to men in the general population: 85.2% of the men in the study versus 59.5% of men in the adult population reported lifetime use of an illegal drug, and 60.1% of the men in the study versus 9.9% of men in the adult population reported use of an illegal drug during the preceding 30 days. Substance abuse problems and drug dependence were also highly prevalent, with a sizable proportion of the men having unmet treatment needs. Most study participants (56.4%) reported a preference for having sex while under the influence of alcohol and/or other drugs, with the large majority of these persons (85.9%) expressing a preference for illegal drug use in that context. The author concludes that men who use the Internet to find partners for unprotected sex tend to have extensive drug use histories, and their experimentation with illegal drugs continues well into their 40s, 50s, and beyond. A sizable proportion of these men need substance abuse education, prevention services, intervention services, and/or drug treatment.     

The Burmese Opiate Trade and the Struggle for Political Power in the Golden Triangle

Abstract

This study was based on a national random sample of 332 MSM who use the Internet to seek men with whom they can engage in unprotected sex. Data collection was conducted via telephone interviews between January 2008 and May 2009. Illegal drug use was highly prevalent in this population, particularly when compared to men in the general population: 85.2% of the men in the study versus 59.5% of men in the adult population reported lifetime use of an illegal drug, and 60.1% of the men in the study versus 9.9% of men in the adult population reported use of an illegal drug during the preceding 30 days. Substance abuse problems and drug dependence were also highly prevalent, with a sizable proportion of the men having unmet treatment needs. Most study participants (56.4%) reported a preference for having sex while under the influence of alcohol and/or other drugs, with the large majority of these persons (85.9%) expressing a preference for illegal drug use in that context. The author concludes that men who use the Internet to find partners for unprotected sex tend to have extensive drug use histories, and their experimentation with illegal drugs continues well into their 40s, 50s, and beyond. A sizable proportion of these men need substance abuse education, prevention services, intervention services, and/or drug treatment.     

Vulnerable Societies: Why Antidrug Policies Fail,Why There is a Need for Reforms and Why They are Unlikely to be Implemented

Illegal drugs develop in vulnerable societies. Antidrug policies fail because they do not attack those vulnerabilities; most only attack some of the contributing or risk factors that help the illegal drug industry development. Political systems, particularly those of nonauthoritarian regimes in pluralistic societies, are ill suited to prohibit individual behaviors. The only solution for the “drug problem” requires the elimination of the countries’ vulnerabilities, that is, to harmonize the formal laws with the socially accepted norms of the various groups of the society. This requires substantial social reforms, and it is unlikely to occur in the near future.     

Illegal drug-attributable morbidity in Canada 2002

Use of illegal drugs is an important behavioral risk factor for burden of morbidity in developed countries. The objective was to estimate the number of diagnoses in acute care hospitals, psychiatric hospitalizations, admissions in specialized treatment, and number of days in treatment attributable to use of illegal drugs for Canada in 2002. The number of diagnoses in acute care hospitals, psychiatric hospitalizations, and hospital days were obtained from the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI). Number of admissions and number of days in specialized inpatient and outpatient treatment of illegal drug dependency were obtained from provincial ministerial officials or drug addiction program coordinators. Except for effects of maternal use of drugs of addiction on the newborn, and suicide, drug-attributable fractions (DAFs) were estimated directly from available statistics in published literature. There were 61,026 illegal drug-related diagnoses in acute care hospitals, 1,517 psychiatric hospitalizations, and 139,773 admissions to specialized treatment attributable to illegal drug use in Canada. The largest contributors were mental and behavioral disorders due to psychoactive substance use in acute care hospitals, and drug psychoses in psychiatric hospitalizations. Length of stay amounted to 352,121 days in acute care hospitals, 31,508 days in psychiatric hospitals, and 2,851,829 days in specialized treatment. Drug use constitutes a major contributor to burden of morbidity in Canada. Compared to 1992, the total number of illegal drug-attributable days in 2002 increased, especially in acute hospitals by a factor of 9.6. A mixture of prevention and harm reduction measures is proposed to reduce the burden of morbidity associated with drug use. [Popova S, Rehm J, Patra J, Baliunas D, Taylor B. Illegal drug-attributable morbidity in Canada 2002. Drug Alcohol Rev 2007;26:]     

Reputation transferability across contexts: Maintaining cooperation among anonymous cryptomarket actors when moving between markets

BackgroundBuyers and sellers of illegal drugs in cryptomarkets have been found to overcome trust issues created by anonymity and the lack of legal protection with the help of reputation systems. Cryptomarkets rarely operate for longer than a year before closing or getting shut down due to external shocks, such as law enforcement operations. This results in large flows of users migrating between market platforms. An important question in order to better understand why cryptomarkets recover quickly after external shocks is: to what extent can reputation be carried over between different markets? This problem is non-trivial given the anonymity of cryptomarket users and the fact that reputation is tied to a user's online identity. Here we analyze conditions under which sellers choose to migrate with the same identity and whether reputation history from previous cryptomarkets yields benefits in new contexts.MethodsWe analyze sellers’ migration in three cryptomarkets (Abraxas, Agora and AlphaBay) and follow their reputation history by linking user accounts between marketplaces using the Grams database. We use longitudinal multi-level regression models to compare market success of migrant and non-migrant sellers. In total, the data contains more than 7,500 seller account and 2.5 million buyers’ reputational feedback messages over a period of 3 years.FindingsIt is predominantly the successful sellers with a large number of sales and high reputation who choose to migrate and maintain their identity using cryptographic methods after market closures. We find that reputation history from previous markets creates a competitive advantage to migrant sellers compared to market entrants.ConclusionReputation transferability embeds cryptomarket users beyond a single market platform, which incentivizes cooperative behavior. The results also suggest that reputation transferability might contribute to a quick recovery of online drug trade after shutdowns and accumulation of market share in the hands of a small fraction of successful sellers.     

A system dynamics approach to the study of Colombian coca cultivation and the counter-intuitive consequence of law enforcement

A large-scale expansion of the Colombian coca cultivation is one of the most revealing signs of a structural change in the illegal cocaine market in the Andean region. From being a modest and domestic production, in the space of five years Colombian coca cultivation supplied a competitive market, capable of substituting almost completely the foreign sources of supply. The purpose of this work is to explore the role and potential of system dynamics (SD) as a modeling methodology to better understand the consequences of drug policy. As a case study, this work tests the hypothesis that the outbreak of Colombian coca cultivations is a consequence of the take down of large cartels, leading to the surge of small drug-trafficking firms called “cartelitos.” Using an SD model, and elements from the economic theory of the criminal firm, our work shows how the formation of these small firms might significantly contribute to the configuring of a more competitive domestic coca industry (and hence to a more efficient crime industry). We conclude that SD seems an appropriate dynamic modeling-based approach to address policy issues regarding drug markets. The methodology takes into account the dynamic nature of drug markets and their multi-dimensional responses to policy interventions.     

Sellers’ risk perceptions in public and private social media drug markets

IntroductionFrom the early use of pagers and cellular phones to the darknet and smartphones, technological developments have facilitated drug deals in various ways, especially by altering time and space boundaries. Traditional drug market literature theorises about how physical markets, within which sellers act according to their risk perceptions and motivation, are led by supply, demand, and enforcement. However, there is an almost absolute research gap in understanding how this relates to digital markets and social media markets in particular. It is expected that the plasticity of technology makes digital markets highly mouldable so that the sellers are able to shape markets according to their use.Research aimThe aim of the study is to describe and understand drug dealing on social media within the structure of existing markets. We aim to do so by analysing how drug sellers’ risk perceptions and motivations form and are formed by social media technology.MethodsWe conducted a three-month digital ethnographic study on Facebook and Instagram in the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden), as well as 107 semi-structured qualitative interviews with sellers (2/3 of the sample) and buyers (1/3 of the sample) using online markets within the same countries.ResultsDrug dealing on social media varies according to the structure of the chosen media and users’ risk perceptions and motivations. Two market forms are suggested: 1) public digital markets (e.g., Facebook groups and Instagram) allow sellers to expand their customer lists, but the risk is quite high, while 2) private digital markets are based on one-on-one communication and demand greater knowledge but are perceived as more secure. Sellers choose which media to use and how to use them based on perceived risk and, therefore, have a significant impact on the formation of social media drug markets.