Cost and Quality of Life Outcomes of the STepped Exercise Program for Patients With Knee OsteoArthritis Trial

ObjectivesThis study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the randomized clinical trial STEP-KOA (STepped Exercise Program for patients with Knee OsteoArthritis).MethodsThe trial included 230 intervention and 115 control participants from 2 Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers. A decision tree simulated outcomes for cohorts of patients receiving arthritis education (control) or STEP-KOA (intervention), which consisted of an internet-based exercise training program (step 1), phone counseling (step 2), and physical therapy (step 3) according to patient’s response. Intervention costs were assessed from the VA perspective. Quality of life (QOL) was measured using 5-level EQ-5D US utility weights. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated as the difference in costs divided by the difference in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) between arms at 9 months. A Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to generate a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve.ResultsThe adjusted model found differential improvement in QOL utility weights of 0.042 (95% confidence interval 0.003-0.080; P=.03) for STEP-KOA versus control at 9 months. In the base case, STEP-KOA resulted in an incremental gain of 0.028 QALYs and an incremental cost of $279 per patient for an ICER of $10 076. One-way sensitivity analyses found the largest sources of variation in the ICER were the impact on QOL and the need for a VA-owned tablet. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis found a 98% probability of cost-effectiveness at $50 000 willingness-to-pay per QALY.ConclusionsSTEP-KOA improves QOL and has a high probability of cost-effectiveness. Resources needed to implement the program will decline as ownership of mobile health devices increases.     

A cost-effectiveness analysis of antenatal influenza vaccination among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected pregnant women in South Africa

BackgroundPregnant women and infants are at increased risk of severe disease from influenza. Antenatal influenza vaccination is safe and can reduce the risk of illness for women and their infants. We evaluated for South Africa the health effects of antenatal influenza vaccination among pregnant women and their infants aged <6 months old and assessed its cost-effectiveness.MethodsWe constructed a decision tree model to simulate the population of pregnant women and infants aged <6 months in South Africa using TreeAge Pro Suite 2015. The model evaluated the change in societal costs and outcomes associated with a vaccination campaign that prioritized HIV-infected over HIV-uninfected pregnant women compared with no vaccination. We also examined the impacts of a campaign without prioritization. Upper and lower 90% uncertainty intervals (90% UI) were generated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis on 10000 Monte Carlo simulations. The cost-effectiveness threshold was set to the 2015 per capita gross domestic product of South Africa, US$5724.ResultsAntenatal vaccination with prioritization averted 9070 (90% UI: 7407–11217) total cases of influenza among pregnant women and infants, including 411 (90% UI: 305–546) hospitalizations and 30 (90% UI: 22–40) deaths. This corresponds to an averted fraction of 13.5% (90% UI: 9.0–20.5%). Vaccinating without prioritization averted 7801 (90% UI: 6465–9527) cases of influenza, including 335 (90% UI: 254–440) hospitalizations and 24 (90% UI: 18–31) deaths. This corresponds to an averted fraction of 11.6% (90% UI: 7.8–17.4%). Vaccinating the cohort of pregnant women with prioritization had societal cost of $4689 (90% UI: $3128–$7294) per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained while vaccinating without prioritization had a cost of $5924 (90% UI: $3992–$9056) per QALY.ConclusionsAntenatal influenza vaccination campaigns in South Africa would reduce the impact of influenza and could be cost-effective.     

Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment of sleep apnea

OBJECTIVE: To describe the application of a probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis to nasal continuous positive airway passage (nCPAP) treatment of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: The probabilistic model was constructed from a discrete Markov model. This probabilistic approach is characterized by the introduction of variables as probability distributions. The model performed 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and incremental costs and effectiveness were calculated in each. The results were analyzed through the cost-effectiveness plane, the acceptability curve, the net benefit rule, and the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). RESULTS: The mean cost-effectiveness ratio for nCPAP treatment was 5,480 Euro/QALY (quality-adjusted life year). Using an acceptability threshold of 30,000 Euro/QALY, the probabilistic analysis showed that nCPAP was the optimal treatment in 98.5% of the simulations. The EVPI showed that the parameter causing greatest uncertainty in the final results was the quality of life gain through nCPAP treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our probabilistic analysis are endorsed by previous deterministic studies confirming that nCPAP treatment of OSAS is the most cost-effective strategy. An additional advantage of probabilistic analysis is that it allows uncertainty to be quantified; in the present case the probability of making the wrong decision was below 5%. Furthermore, this study reveals that to reduce uncertainty, research should center on improving information on quality of life.     

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Vaccination With Recombinant Zoster Vaccine Among Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients and Persons With Other Immunocompromising Conditions Aged 19 to 49 Years

ObjectivesThis study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the use of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) (Shingrix), which protects against herpes zoster (HZ), among immunocompromised adults aged 19 to 49 years, as a contribution to deliberations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.MethodsHematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients experience a high incidence of HZ, and the efficacy of RZV in preventing HZ has been studied in clinical trials. The cost-effectiveness model calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios that compared vaccination with RZV with a no vaccination strategy among adults aged 19 to 49 years. Costs and outcomes were calculated until age 50 years using the healthcare sector perspective and summarized as cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The base case represents HCT recipients, with scenario analyses representing persons with other immunocompromising conditions, including hematologic malignancies, human immunodeficiency virus, and autoimmune and inflammatory conditions. Uncertainty was investigated using univariate, multivariate, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ResultsBase-case results indicated vaccination with RZV would avert approximately 35% of HZ episodes and complications, while saving approximately 11% of net costs. Compared with no vaccination, vaccination of HCT recipients with RZV generated cost-savings (ie, lower costs and improved health) in the base case and in 81% of simulations in the probabilistic analysis. In scenario analyses, vaccination cost US dollar ($) 9500/QALY among patients with hematologic malignancies, $79 000/QALY among persons living with human immunodeficiency virus, and $208 000/QALY among persons with selected autoimmune and inflammatory conditions.ConclusionsGenerally favorable economic estimates supported recommendations for vaccination of immunocompromised adults with RZV to prevent episodes of HZ and related complications.     

Uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis. Probabilistic uncertainty analysis and stochastic league tables

Interest is growing in the application of standard statistical inferential techniques to the calculation of cost-effectiveness ratios (CER), but individual level data will not be available in many cases because it is very difficult to undertake prospective controlled trials of many public health interventions. We propose the application of probabilistic uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulations, in combination with nonparametric bootstrapping techniques where appropriate. This paper also discusses how decision makers should interpret the CER of interventions where uncertainty intervals overlap. We show how the incorporation of uncertainty around costs and effects of interventions into a stochastic league table provides additional information to decision makers for priority setting. Stochastic league tables inform decision makers about the probability that a specific intervention would be included in the optimal mix of interventions for different resource levels, given the uncertainty surrounding the interventions.     

The cost-effectiveness of a universal influenza vaccination program for adults aged 50-64 years in Australia

Currently the Australian government funds universal influenza vaccine for all those aged > or =65 years under the National Immunisation Program (NIP). Annual vaccination rates in those aged 50-64 years are significantly lower than vaccination rates in those aged > or =65 years, and currently less than half those at high-risk of influenza-related complications aged 50-64 years are immunised. This study used a decision tree model to examine the cost-effectiveness of lowering the age threshold for the influenza NIP in Australia to include those aged 50-64 years. From a healthcare payer perspective, a new influenza vaccination policy would cost $8908/QALY gained. From a societal perspective, a new influenza vaccination policy would cost $8338/QALY gained. From a governmental perspective, a new influenza vaccination policy would cost $22,408/QALY gained. The most influential parameters in deterministic sensitivity analysis included: probability of death due to influenza, vaccine efficacy against mortality, vaccine uptake, vaccine cost, and vaccine administration cost. Influenza vaccination for people aged 50-64 years appears highly cost-effective, and should be a strong candidate for funding under the NIP.     

Comparative economic analysis of strategies for Japanese encephalitis vaccination of U.S. travelers

BackgroundJapanese encephalitis (JE) virus is the leading vaccine-preventable cause of encephalitis in Asia. For most travelers, JE risk is very low but varies based on several factors, including travel duration, location, and activities. To aid public health officials, health care providers, and travelers evaluate the worth of administering/ receiving pre-travel JE vaccinations, we estimated the numbers-needed-to-treat to prevent a case and the cost-effectiveness ratios of JE vaccination for U.S. travelers in different risk categories.MethodsWe used a decision tree model to estimate cost per case averted from a societal and traveler perspective for hypothetical cohorts of vaccinated and unvaccinated travelers. Risk Category I included travelers planning to spend ≥1 month in JE-endemic areas, Risk Category II were shorter-term (<1 month) travelers spending ≥20% of their time doing outdoor activities in rural areas, and Risk Category III were all remaining travelers. We performed sensitivity analyses including examining changes in cost-effectiveness with 10- and 100-fold increases in incidence and medical treatment costs.ResultsThe numbers-needed-to-treat to prevent a case and cost per case averted were approximately 0.7 million and $0.6 billion for Risk Category I, 1.6 million and $1.2 billion for Risk Category II, and 9.8 million and $7.6 billion for Risk Category III. Increases of 10-fold and 100-fold in disease incidence proportionately decreased cost-effectiveness ratios. Similar levels of increases in medical treatment costs resulted in negligible changes in cost-effectiveness ratios.ConclusionNumbers-needed-to-treat and cost-effectiveness ratios associated with preventing JE cases in U.S. travelers by vaccination varied greatly by risk category and disease incidence. While cost effectiveness ratios are not the sole rationale for decision-making regarding JE vaccination, the results presented here can aid in making such decisions under very different risk and cost scenarios.     

A cost-effectiveness analysis of hepatitis B vaccine in predialysis patients.

OBJECTIVE. Our objective was to assess the cost effectiveness of hepatitis B vaccine in predialysis patients. DATA SOURCES. Costs were calculated from estimated rates of health services use and unit costs of resource use. Efficacy data were based on probability estimates from the medical literature and included vaccination response rates, anticipated hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection rates, and outcomes from HBV. STUDY DESIGN. Costs and effectiveness of HBV vaccination was modeled with a decision tree constructed to analyze three vaccination strategies for patients with renal insufficiency: vaccine given prior to dialysis, vaccine given at time of dialysis, and no vaccine. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the effect of varying important clinical and cost variables. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS. All analyses were based on efficacy and cost estimates derived from the medical literature. Analyses were conducted with the aid of SMLTREE software. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. The number of patients requiring vaccination per case of HBV prevented was higher for dialysis patients (625 vaccinees/case prevented) than for predialysis patients (434 vaccinees/case prevented). The cost-effectiveness ratios were $25,313/case of HBV prevented for vaccination at the time of dialysis and $31,111 for the predialysis vaccine. When a higher HBV infection rate (based on clinical trial data) was substituted in the analysis, the cost effectiveness of a predialysis vaccination strategy improved to $856 per case prevented. Results were sensitive to the cost of the vaccine and the incidence of HBV infection in dialysis patients. For the predialysis strategy to become cost saving, the price of the vaccine would have to decrease from $114 to $1.50, or the incidence of infection would have to increase from 0.6 percent to 38 percent, holding all other variables constant. CONCLUSIONS. Additional HBV infection can be prevented by immunizing predialysis patients, but the cost is high. Decisions concerning vaccination policy should be influenced by local prevalence of HBV infection.     

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in children under five years of age in 195 countries: A meta-regression analysis

BackgroundRotavirus caused an estimated 151,714 deaths from diarrhea among children under 5 in 2019. To reduce mortality, countries are considering adding rotavirus vaccination to their routine immunization program. Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) to inform these decisions are not available in every setting, and where they are, results are sensitive to modeling assumptions, especially about vaccine efficacy. We used advances in meta-regression methods and estimates of vaccine efficacy by location to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for rotavirus vaccination in 195 countries.MethodsBeginning with Tufts University CEA and Global Health CEA registries we used 515 ICERs from 68 articles published through 2017, extracted 938 additional one-way sensitivity analyses, and excluded 33 ICERs for a sample of 1,418. We used a five-stage, mixed-effects, Bayesian metaregression framework to predict ICERs, and logistic regression model to predict the probability that the vaccine was cost-saving. For both models, covariates were vaccine characteristics including efficacy, study methods, and country-specific rotavirus disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. All results are reported in 2017 United States dollars.ResultsVaccine efficacy, vaccine cost, GDP per capita and rotavirus DALYs were important drivers of variability in ICERs. Globally, the median ICER was $2,289 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): $147–$38,993) and ranged from $85 per DALY averted (95% UI: $13–$302) in Central African Republic to $70,599 per DALY averted (95% UI: $11,030–$263,858) in the United States. Among countries eligible for support from Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, the mean ICER was $255 per DALY averted (95% UI: $39–$918), and among countries eligible for the PAHO revolving fund, the mean ICER was $2,464 per DALY averted (95% UI: $382–$3,118).ConclusionOur findings incorporate recent evidence that vaccine efficacy differs across locations, and support expansion of rotavirus vaccination programs, particularly in countries eligible for support from Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance.     

Economic evaluation of Haemophilus influenzae type B vaccination in Indonesia: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND: Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib) causes significant morbidity and mortality in children under five years of age. A safe and effective vaccine is available but is not in general use in developing countries. This paper evaluates the cost-effectiveness of introducing Hib vaccine in Indonesia as an addition to the country's current DTP-Hepatitis B vaccination program. METHODS: The economic analysis uses a societal perspective and is based on a 1-year birth cohort of 4.234 million. The disease status of children with and without Hib vaccination is modeled for the year, and health consequences are modeled over the expected life of the child. One-way, two-way, probabilistic and worst-case sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the robustness of the results. RESULTS: Implementation of Hib vaccination in Indonesia would avert approximately 76,700 cases of invasive infection, more than 7,150 deaths and 273,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Compared to no vaccine, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is US $67 per DALY averted based on UNICEF pricing, whereas the program would save US $3.7 million with GAVI pricing. The result is not sensitive to uncertainty in disease incidence, costs of treatment or the probability of developing immunity. CONCLUSION: The model demonstrates significant cost-effectiveness of implementation of a Hib vaccination program for Indonesian society.     

Enhanced decision support for policy makers using a web interface to health-economic models--illustrated with a cost-effectiveness analysis of nation-wide infant vaccination with the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the Netherlands

We have developed a web-based user-interface (web interface) to enhance the usefulness of health-economic evaluations to support decision making (http://pcv.healtheconomics.nl). It allows the user to interact with a health-economic model to evaluate predefined and customized scenarios and perform sensitivity analysis. To explore its usefulness, it was applied to an evaluation of cost-effectiveness of nation-wide infant vaccination with the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7), that was used to support a policy decision on the inclusion of PCV7 in the national vaccination program (NVP) of the Netherlands. We used a decision-tree analytic model to project the impact of infant vaccination with four doses of PCV7 on an annual cohort of infants born in the Netherlands. The base-case analysis includes the beneficial effects on unvaccinated individuals (herd protection). Additional scenarios varying the number of doses, discount rate for effects and the number of serotypes in the vaccine were evaluated and can be analysed on the web. Our model projects a base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (iCER) of euro14,000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 9,800-20,200) per quality adjusted life year (QALY) or euro15,600 (95% UI: 11,100-23,900) per life year gained (LYG).     

Cost-effectiveness of introducing an MF59-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine for older adults in Argentina

IntroductionInfluenza surveillance in Argentina reported influenza-like illness at a rate of 3500/100,000, a hospitalization rate of 15.5/100,000, and a death rate of 0.32/100,000 annually in adults aged over 65 years. The high burden of disease may be due to a combination of immunosenescence and the suboptimal clinical effectiveness of conventional, non-adjuvanted influenza vaccines in this age group. There is a clinical need for more effective influenza vaccines in this population. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of an MF59®-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aTIV) in adults aged over 65 years in Argentina compared with the non-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) used under the current national vaccination policy.MethodsA decision tree cost-effectiveness model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of switching from TIV to aTIV in Argentinian older adults. The model compared cost and health benefits of vaccination in one influenza season from the payer perspective. The main predictions included survival, quality-adjusted survival, and costs. Model inputs were sourced from Argentina or internationally where local data was considered inaccurate. Vaccine efficacy assumptions were extracted from recently published, peer-reviewed scientific literature.ResultsSwitching from TIV to aTIV would result in 170 deaths averted and 1310 incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per QALY was US $2660.59 from the payer perspective. In all sensitivity analyses, aTIV remained highly cost-effective. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed a 95% CI per QALY of US $113.74–7721.67.ConclusionIntroducing an adjuvanted influenza vaccine in Argentina is potentially beneficial and cost-effective relative to the currently-used TIV through the reduction of disease burden and utilization of healthcare resources.     

Screening for and Treating Postpartum Depression and Psychosis: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Objectives Postpartum depression impacts 6.5–12.9% of U.S. women. Postpartum depression is associated with impaired bonding and development, marital discord, suicide, and infanticide. However, the current standard of care is to not screen women for postpartum depression. This study modeled the cost-effectiveness of physicians screening for and treating postpartum depression and psychosis in partnership with a psychiatrist. Methods This study follows a hypothetical cohort of 1000 pregnant women experiencing one live birth over a 2-year time horizon. We used a decision tree model to obtain the outcomes of screening for and treating postpartum depression and psychosis using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. We use a Medicaid payer perspective because they cover approximately 50% of births in the U.S. The cost-effectiveness of the intervention is measured in cost per remission achieved and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. We conducted both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results Screening for and treating postpartum depression and psychosis produced 29 more healthy women at a cost of $943 per woman. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the intervention branch compared to usual care were $13,857 per QALY gained (below the commonly accepted willingness to pay threshold of $50,000/QALY gained) and $10,182 per remission achieved. These results were robust in both the deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses of input parameters. Conclusions for Practice Screening for and treating postpartum depression is a cost-effective intervention and should be considered as part of usual postnatal care, which aligns with the recently proposed recommendations from the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

     

Public Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis A Vaccination in the United States: A Disease Transmission Dynamic Modeling Approach

ObjectiveTo assess the population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of hepatitis A vaccination programs in the United States.MethodsWe developed an age-structured population model of hepatitis A transmission dynamics to evaluate two policies of administering a two-dose hepatitis A vaccine to children aged 12 to 18 months: 1) universal routine vaccination as recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices in 2006 and 2) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’s previous regional policy of routine vaccination of children living in states with high hepatitis A incidence. Inputs were obtained from the published literature, public sources, and clinical trial data. The model was fitted to hepatitis A seroprevalence (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey II and III) and reported incidence from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (1980–1995). We used a societal perspective and projected costs (in 2013 US $), quality-adjusted life-years, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, and other outcomes over the period 2006 to 2106.ResultsOn average, universal routine hepatitis A vaccination prevented 259,776 additional infections, 167,094 outpatient visits, 4781 hospitalizations, and 228 deaths annually. Compared with the regional vaccination policy, universal routine hepatitis A vaccination was cost saving. In scenario analysis, universal vaccination prevented 94,957 infections, 46,179 outpatient visits, 1286 hospitalizations, and 15 deaths annually and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $21,223/quality-adjusted life-year when herd protection was ignored.ConclusionsOur model predicted that universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination led to significant reductions in hepatitis A mortality and morbidity. Consequently, universal vaccination was cost saving compared with a regional vaccination policy. Herd protection effects of hepatitis A vaccination programs had a significant impact on hepatitis A mortality, morbidity, and cost-effectiveness ratios.     

Estimating uncertainty ranges for costs by the bootstrap procedure combined with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

When an economic evaluation incorporates patient-level data, there are two types of uncertainty over the results: uncertainty due to variation in the sampled data, and uncertainty over the choice of modelling parameters and assumptions. Previously statistical methods have been used to estimate the extent of the former, and sensitivity analysis to estimate the extent of the latter. Ideally interval estimates for economic variables should reflect both types of uncertainty. This paper describes a method for combining bootstrapping with probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate a total 'uncertainty range' for incremental costs. The approach is illustrated using cost data from a randomized controlled trial of endoscopy for Helicobactor pylori negative young dyspeptic patients. The trial failed to demonstrate any clinical benefit from endoscopy, which was on average pound 395 more costly. The combined 95% uncertainty range for incremental costs (-pound 236 to pound 931) was wider than 95% intervals estimated by either probabilistic sensitivity analysis (pound 43 to pound 592) or the non-parametric bootstrap method (-pound 95 to pound 667) alone. The method can easily be extended to the calculation of uncertainty ranges for incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Posaconazole versus Fluconazole or Itraconazole in the Prevention of Invasive Fungal Infections among Neutropenic Patients in the United States

Objectives:  Clinical trial data indicate that posaconazole is superior to fluconazole (FLU) or itraconazole (ITRA) in preventing invasive fungal infections (IFIs) among neutropenic patients. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of posaconazole versus FLU or ITRA for prevention of IFIs among neutropenic patients.
Methods:  We used modeling techniques to assess the cost-effectiveness of posaconazole versus FLU or ITRA in the prevention of IFIs among patients with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) or myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia. The probabilities of experiencing an IFI, IFI-related death, and death from other causes over 100 days of follow-up were estimated from clinical trial data. Long-term mortality, drug costs, and IFI treatment costs were obtained from secondary sources.
Results:  Posaconazole is associated with fewer IFIs per patient (0.05 vs. 0.11) relative to FLU or ITRA over 100 days of follow-up, and lower discounted costs ($3900 vs. $4500) and increased life-years (2.50 vs. 2.43 discounted) over a lifetime horizon. Results from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicate that there is a 73% probability that posaconazole is cost saving versus FLU or ITRA and a 96% probability that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for posaconazole is at or below $50,000 per life-year saved.
Conclusions:  We conclude that posaconazole is very likely to be a cost-effective alternative to FLU or ITRA in the prevention of IFIs among neutropenic patients with AML and MDS, and may result in cost savings.     

Economic Evaluation of Cinacalcet in the United States: The EVOLVE Trial

BackgroundPrevious economic evaluations of cinacalcet in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism (sHPT) relied on the combination of surrogate end points in clinical trials and epidemiologic studies.ObjectivesThe objective was to conduct an economic evaluation of cinacalcet on the basis of the EValuation Of Cinacalcet HCl Therapy to Lower CardioVascular Events (EVOLVE) trial from a US payer perspective.MethodsWe developed a semi-Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of cinacalcet in addition to conventional therapy, compared with conventional therapy alone, in patients with moderate-to-severe sHPT receiving hemodialysis. We used treatment effect estimates from the unadjusted intent-to-treat (ITT) analysis and prespecified covariate-adjusted ITT analysis as our main analyses. We assessed model sensitivity to variations in individual inputs and overall decision uncertainty through probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ResultsThe incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for cinacalcet was $61,705 per life-year and $79,562 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained using the covariate-adjusted ITT analysis. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested a 73.2% chance of the ICER being below a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000. Treatment effects from unadjusted ITT analysis yielded an ICER of $115,876 per QALY. The model was most sensitive to the treatment effect on mortality.ConclusionsIn the unadjusted ITT analysis, cinacalcet does not represent a cost- effective use of health care resources when applying a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY. When using the covariate-adjusted ITT treatment effect, which represents the least biased estimate, however, cinacalcet is a cost-effective therapy for patients with moderate-to-severe sHPT on hemodialysis.     

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccine in reducing the risk of cervical cancer in Ireland due to HPV types 16 and 18 using a transmission dynamic model

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of combining a cervical cancer screening programme with a national HPV vaccination programme compared to a screening programme alone to prevent cervical dysplasia and cervical cancer related to HPV types 16 and 18 in the Irish healthcare setting. The incremental cost effectiveness of vaccination strategies for 12-year-old females (base-case) and 12-26-year-old catch-up vaccination strategies were examined. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was euro17,383/LYG. Using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis about the base-case, the 95% CI for cost per LYG was (euro3400 to euro38,400). This suggests that vaccination against HPV types 16 and 18 would be cost-effective from the perspective of the Irish healthcare payer.     

The use of probabilistic decision models in technology assessment

There is increasing recognition that decision modelling is central to health technology assessment and, in particular, to analyses to support formal decision making regarding the funding of the use of new technologies. In part, the key role of decision analysis stems from the need to handle multiple sources of uncertainty in the available evidence. The use of probabilistic decision analysis is a means of reflecting the parameter uncertainty in models and presenting this in a comprehensible manner to decision makers. In this article, we demonstrate the potential role of probabilistic models using the case study of total hip replacement surgery.A cost-effectiveness model was constructed to compare the Charnley and Spectron hip prostheses in terms of lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Revision rates were estimated from the Swedish National Total Hip Arthroplasty Register (1992-2000); the risk of revision with the Spectron prosthesis relative to the Charnley prosthesis was 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.32, 1.02) for early revisions and 0.26 (95% CI 0.07, 0.46) for late revisions. This lower revision risk resulted in the Spectron generating more QALYs than the Charnley prosthesis. Based on mean costs and QALYs, the Spectron results in cost savings in younger patients, and generates incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of between pound1000 and pound16 000 in older patient groups. The probabilistic results from the model indicated that, if it is assumed that decision makers are willing to pay up to pound20 000 per additional QALY, the probability of the Spectron being the more cost-effective prosthesis ranged between 70% and 100%, depending on the age and sex of the patient.This article looks at the application of probabilistic decision modelling using total hip replacement as a case study to emphasis the need for decision models to quantify all sources of parameter uncertainty and to clearly distinguish parameter uncertainty from subgroup heterogeneity.     

Cost-effectiveness of pediatric norovirus vaccination in daycare settings

ObjectiveNoroviruses are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in the United States and outbreaks frequently occur in daycare settings. Results of norovirus vaccine trials have been promising, however there are open questions as to whether vaccination of daycare children would be cost-effective. We investigated the incremental cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical norovirus vaccination for children in daycare settings compared to no vaccination.MethodsWe conducted a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis using a disease transmission model of children attending daycare. Vaccination with a 90% coverage rate in addition to the observed standard of care (exclusion of symptomatic children from daycare) was compared to the observed standard of care. The main outcomes measures were infections and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Cost-effectiveness was analyzed from a societal perspective, including medical costs to children as well as productivity losses of parents, over a two-year time horizon. Data sources included outbreak surveillance data and published literature.ResultsA 50% efficacious norovirus vaccine averts 571.83 norovirus cases and 0.003 norovirus-related deaths per 10,000 children compared to the observed standard of care. A $200 norovirus vaccine that is 50% efficacious has a net cost increase of $178.10 per child and 0.025 more QALYs, resulting in an ICER of $7,028/QALY. Based on the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, we estimated that a $200 vaccination with 50% efficacy was 94.0% likely to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of $100,000/QALY threshold and 95.3% likely at a $150,000/QALY threshold.ConclusionDue to the large disease burden associated with norovirus, it is likely that vaccinating children in daycares could be cost-effective, even with modest vaccine efficacy and a high per-child cost of vaccination. Norovirus vaccination of children in daycare has a cost-effectiveness ratio similar to other commonly recommended childhood vaccines.