The effect of the American Joint Committee on Cancer eighth edition on breast cancer staging and prognostication

IntroductionBreast cancer staging has been developed to quantify prognosis and guide treatment. The American Joint Committee on Cancer eighth edition manual (AJCC8) departed from traditional anatomic staging by incorporating biological factors such as grade, hormone and HER2 receptor status into a novel prognostic staging model. The aim of this study was to externally validate AJCC8 prognostic staging.MethodsThis retrospective cohort investigated patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2013 at the McGill University Health Center. Patients were classified using both anatomic and prognostic staging systems according AJCC8. Overall survival analysis using a multivariate Cox-proportional hazard model was performed and model accuracy was evaluated using the Harrell concordance index (C-index) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC).ResultsThe cohort included 1703 women. Anatomic and prognostic stage assignments displayed discrepancies for 46.2% of patients, where 38.8% were downstaged and 7.5% were upstaged with prognostic staging. Patients with anatomic stages IB, IIA, IIB, IIIA and IIIC had high rates of downstaging (64.6–96.5%), as opposed to anatomic stages IA and IIIB where 93.1% and 75.0% of patients stage remained unchanged, respectively. The prognostic stage displayed increased prognostic accuracy with respect to overall survival, where the C-index was significantly higher compared to anatomic staging (0.810 vs 0.799, p < 0.05). In addition, prognostic staging displayed an improved model fit with a lower AIC (983.9) compared to anatomic staging (995.2).ConclusionPrognostic and anatomic staging differ in their classification of patients, where prognostic staging displays improved accuracy, supporting its use in informing patient prognosis and guiding treatment decisions.     

Comprehensive analysis of prognostic value of lymph node staging classifications in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma after cervical lymph node dissection

PurposeTo determine the optimal threshold of examined lymph node (ELN) number from cervical lymph node dissection for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Further to compare the prognostic value of multiple lymph node classification systems and to determine the most suitable scheme to predict survival.MethodsA total of 20991 HNSCC patients were included. Odds ratios (ORs) for negative-to-positive node stage migration and hazard ratios (HRs) for survival were fitted using the LOWESS smoother. Structural breakpoints were determined by the Chow test. The R square, C-index, likelihood ratio, and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to compare the prognostic abilities among AJCC N stage, number of positive lymph nodes (pN), positive lymph node ratio (LNR) and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) stages.ResultsA minimal threshold ELN number of fifteen had the discriminatory capacities for both stage migration and survival. LODDS stages had the highest R square value (0.208), C-index (0.736) and likelihood ratio (2467) and the smallest AIC value (65874). LODDS stages also showed prognostic value in estimating patients with AJCC N0 stage. A novel staging system was proposed and showed good prognostic performance when stratified by different primary sites.ConclusionFifteen lymph nodes should be examined for HNSCC patients. LODDS stage allows better prognostic stratification, especially in N0 stage. The proposed staging system may serve as precise evaluation tools to estimate postoperative prognoses.     

Prognostic value of a new staging system based on the retrieved number and metastatic rate of LNs in gastric cancer with ≤15 retrieved LNs

ObjectiveTo investigate a reasonable lymph node (N) staging system for gastric cancer patients with ≤15 retrieved lymph nodes (LNs).MethodsThe clinicopathological and follow-up data of patients with ≤15 LNs were obtained from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to analyze the impact of the number of retrieved LNs and metastatic status on the prognosis. In addition, external validation was achieved with data from two medical centers in China.ResultsA total of 18,139 gastric cancer patients with 1–15 retrieved LNs from the SEER database were enrolled and randomly divided into the training group and the internal validation group. A new LN staging system, mNr staging (mNr0-4; 5 stages), was established according to the number of retrieved LNs and the metastatic rate. Compared with the TNM and TNrM staging systems (established by Wang J; misclassification rates of 50.4% and 62.5%, respectively), the mTNrM staging system had a lower misclassification rate (23.4%). Furthermore, there was a significant difference in the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate between the mTNrM staging subgroups (p < 0.05); however, no significant difference was found in the 5-year OS rate of partial adjacent stages in the TNM (8th edition) and TNrM (p > 0.05) staging systems. Similar results were obtained in the external validation cohort.Conclusion: mNr and mTNrM staging systems can efficiently distinguish a survival difference in patients who undergo gastrectomy with ≤15 retrieved LNs, with more accurate predictions of the 5-year OS rate of patients compared with the TNM and TNrM staging systems.     

A new nomogram for recurrence-free survival prediction of gastrointestinal stromal tumors: Comparison with current risk classification methods

BackgroundThis study aimed to build a new risk stratification nomogram for gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) focused on a popular factor Ki-67 to enable individualized and precise predictions of the most suitable candidates for imatinib therapy.MethodsWe retrospectively collected clinicopathologic data of the patients diagnosed with GISTs from January 1998 to December 2015 at Southern Medical University Nanfang Hospital as the experiment group. And patients with GISTs at the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from January 2007 to December 2012 were included as the validation group. The nomogram was built using Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were established to compare the discriminative ability of the new nomogram with other risk stratification systems, including the modified National Institute of Health (modified NIH) criteria, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) criteria, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) prognostic nomogram, and contour maps.ResultsIn univariate analysis, the tumor size, site, mitotic count, tumor rupture and Ki-67 labeling index were significant factors (all P < 0.05) and included in the Cox model to build our nomogram. According to the ROC curve, our new nomogram showed the largest AUC value (0.778) compared with that of the other classification methods (contour maps, AUC = 0.743; AFIP, AUC = 0.719; MSKCC, AUC = 0.712; and modified NIH, AUC = 0.719).ConclusionOur new nomogram exhibits an excellent performance and might become a potential risk stratification to support therapeutic decision-making for GISTs.     

Establishing and validating predictive nomograms for lateral pelvic lymph node metastasis in patients with rectal cancer based on radiologic factors and clinicopathologic characteristics

IntroductionIt is critical to accurately predict the occurrence of lateral pelvic lymph node (LPN) metastasis. Currently, verified predictive tools are unavailable. This study aims to establish nomograms for predicting LPN metastasis in patients with rectal cancer who received or did not receive neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT).Materials and methodsWe carried out a retrospective study of patients with rectal cancer and clinical LPN metastasis who underwent total mesorectal excision (TME) and LPN dissection (LPND) from January 2012 to December 2019 at 3 institutions. We collected and evaluated their clinicopathologic and radiologic features, and constructed nomograms based on the multivariable logistic regression models.ResultsA total of 472 eligible patients were enrolled into the non-nCRT cohort (n = 312) and the nCRT cohort (n = 160). We established nomograms using variables from the multivariable logistic regression models in both cohorts. In the non-nCRT cohort, the variables included LPN short diameter, cT stage, cN stage, histologic grade, and malignant features, and the C-index was 0.930 in the training cohort and 0.913 in the validation cohort. In the nCRT cohort, the variables included post-nCRT LPN short diameter, ycT stage, ycN stage, histologic grade, and post-nCRT malignant features, and the C-index was 0.836 in the training dataset and 0.827 in the validation dataset. The nomograms in both cohorts were moderately calibrated and well-validated.ConclusionsWe established nomograms for patients with rectal cancer that accurately predict LPN metastasis. The performance of the nomograms in both cohorts was high and well-validated.     

Preoperative prediction of central lymph node metastasis in cN0T1/T2 papillary thyroid carcinoma: A nomogram based on clinical and ultrasound characteristics

BackgroundPreoperative status of central lymph nodes is a key determinant of the initial surgical extent for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram based on preoperative clinical characteristics and ultrasound features to predict central lymph node status in patients with clinically lymph node-negative (cN0) T1/T2 PTC.MethodsThis retrospective study included 729 patients with cN0T1/T2 PTC who were treated between January 2015 and March 2020. Based on the ratio of 6:4, 431 patients who underwent surgeries relatively earlier comprised the training set to develop the nomogram, while the other 298 who underwent surgeries relatively later comprised validation set to validate the performance of nomogram. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify predictors of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM). These variables were used to construct a nomogram for predicting the risk of CLNM. The predictive performance, discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical utility of the nomogram model were evaluated in both sets.ResultsA total of 313 (42.9%) PTC patients were identified with CLNM. On multivariate logistic regression analyses, malegender, younger age, larger maximum diameter, multifocality, capsular invasion, infiltrative margins, intra-nodular vascularity, and aspect ratio >1 were independent risk factors for CLNM. Nomogram integrating these 8 factors showed excellent discrimination in the training [area under the curve (AUC): 0.788] and validation (AUC: 0.829) sets, and obtained well-fitted calibration curves. The cut-off value of this nomogram was 0.410 (～245 points). Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram.ConclusionThe CLNM-predicting nomogram can facilitate stratification of cN0T1/T2 PTC patients. Prophylactic central neck lymph node dissection can be considered for those with high nomogram scores.     

Implications for restaging in gastric cancer with peritoneal metastasis based on the 15th Japanese Classification of Gastric Carcinoma: An analysis from a comprehensive center

Backgroundand purpose: For gastric cancer patients with peritoneal metastasis (GCPM), there is no universally accepted prognostic staging system. This study aimed to validate the predictive ability of the 15th peritoneal metastasis staging system (P1abc) of the Japanese Classification of Gastric Carcinoma (JCGC).MethodsThe data of 309 GCPM patients from July 2007 to July 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. This study compared the prognosis prediction performances of P1abc, the previous JCGC PM staging (P123) and Gilly staging systems.ResultsThe survival curve revealed a significant difference in overall survival (OS) predicted by P1abc, P123 and Gilly staging (all P < 0.05), and the survival of the two adjacent substages were well distinguished by P1abc but not by P123 and Gilly staging. Both P123 and Gilly staging were substituted with P1abc staging in a 2-step multivariate analysis. The results showed that P1abc staging was superior to both P123 and Gilly staging in its discriminatory ability (C-index), predictive accuracy (AIC) and predictive homogeneity (likelihood ratio chi-square). A stratified analysis by different therapies indicated that for the P1a and P1b patients, OS following palliative resection combined with palliative chemotherapy (PRCPC) was better than that after palliative resection (PR) or palliative chemotherapy (PC) alone (P < 0.05). For the P1c patients, OS after receiving PC was significantly superior to that after receiving PRCPC or PR (P = 0.021).ConclusionP1abc staging is superior to P123 and Gilly staging in predicting the survival of GCPM patients. Surgeons can provide these patients with appropriate treatment options according to the corresponding substages within P1abc.     

Comprehensive lymphadenectomy and survival prediction in uterine serous cancer patients after surgery: A population-based analysis

ObjectiveEvidence on uterine serous cancer (USC) prognosis has been limited and inconclusive. We aim to explore the survival benefits of comprehensive lymphadenectomy in USC patients after surgery and develop a prognostic nomogram to predict survival.MethodsUSC patients who had undergone hysterectomy between 2010 and 2015 were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The relationship between the extent of lymphadenectomy and survival, including overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), was estimated with Kaplan-Meier (K-M) analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were utilized to determine the independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was then developed, calibrated and internally validated.ResultsA total of 2853 patients were identified. K-M survival analysis revealed that patients with ≥12 pelvic lymph nodes (PLNs) removed had significantly better OS and CSS than those without (both P < 0.001). However, patients with ≥6 para-aortic lymph nodes removed was not associated with similar survival benefits than patients without (P > 0.1). Multivariate analyses for OS and CSS revealed that age, T-stage, N-stage, tumor size, adjuvant therapy and ≥12 PLNs removed were independent prognostic factors (all P < 0.05) and were subsequently incorporated into the nomogram. The Harrell's C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the FIGO staging system (OS: 0.739 vs 0.671, P < 0.001; CSS: 0.752 vs 0.695, P < 0.001). Furthermore, the nomogram was well calibrated with satisfactory consistency.ConclusionsComprehensive pelvic lymphadenectomy should be recommended to USC patients for its survival benefits. And a nomogram has been developed to predict the survivals of USC patients after surgery.     

Development and validation of a nomogram for preoperative prediction of level VII nodal spread in papillary thyroid cancer: Radiologic-pathologic correlation

PurposeTo develop and validate a diagnostic nomogram for preoperative prediction of the level VII nodal spread in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) by incorporating CT features.MethodsA dataset of 7896 patients experiencing thyroidectomy for thyroid cancer was collected retrospectively from two hospitals, and 300 patients were finally included in this study. The CT features of metastatic LN were extracted with a one by one match of radiologic-pathologic correlation. Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was used to develop predicting model, and then a nomogram was developed utilizing a primary cohort of 152 patients from hospital #1. The nomogram was validated in external cohort of 62 patients from hospital #2 and an independent cohort of 86 patients from hospital #1. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated with respect to its calibration, discrimination.Results531 LNs from 300 patients were analyzed. 42.6% LNs were > 5 mm in short diameter. A total of 7 selected CT features were significantly associated with LN status (P < 0.05), including nodular enhancement, cystic change, calcification and so on. These features were contained in the prediction nomogram. The model showed good discrimination and good calibration, with a C-index of 0.938 (95% CI, 0.913 to 0.963) and 0. 795 (95% CI, 0. 726 to 0.864) for the primary cohort and the validation cohort, respectively. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically applicable.ConclusionsThis nomogram incorporating pathologically relevant CT features has demonstrated a high diagnostic value for predicting level VII nodal spread in PTC. Our work may help thyroid surgeon to decide whether upper mediastinal lymphadenectomy should be performed, which is associated with thoracotomy or other surgery.     

Validation of the American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th edition staging system for the pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Background & aimsThe American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition staging system for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA) contains several significant changes. This study aimed to validate the AJCC 8th edition staging system of PDA.MethodsWe analyzed patients with resected PDA between 2001 and 2017 using the Korean Pancreatic Cancer (K-PaC) registry. Overall survival (OS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier survival curves and compared via the log-rank test.ResultsIn total, 701 resected PDA patients were identified. During a median follow-up of 24.5 months, the median OS was 21.7 months. Meanwhile, the median OS of each stage according to the AJCC 8th edition was 73.5 months (stage IA), 41.9 months (stage IB), 24.2 months (stage IIA), 18.3 months (stage IIB), and 16.8 months (stage III). However, the new N-category (pN1 vs. pN2) did not subdivide prognosis, although the lymph node ratio (i.e., the ratio of the number of LN involved to the number of examined LN) did. Although pT3 and pN2 belong under stage III, pN2 has a significantly longer median OS than pT3 (16.9 months vs 11.2 months; p < 0.01).ConclusionThe AJCC 8th edition staging system appropriately stratifies the prognosis of PDA patients. However, the cutoff of the N-category is not statistically valid, and the new stage III includes a heterogeneous category (pN2 and pT4). Therefore, we propose that stage III be divided into stage IIIA (Tany N2 M0) and stage IIIB (T4 Nany M0).     

Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting the conditional probability of survival after D2 lymphadenectomy for gastric cancer: A multicentre study

BackgroundPrevious studies have elucidated that on average, long-term cancer survivors have better prognoses than newly diagnosed individuals. This study aimed to devise a nomogram to predict the conditional probability of cancer-specific survival (CPCS) in gastric cancer (GC) patients after D2 lymphadenectomy.MethodsClinicopathological data for 2,596 GC patients who underwent D2 lymphadenectomy in an Eastern institution (the training cohort) were retrospectively analysed. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) was predicted using Cox regression models. A nomogram was constructed to predict CPCS at 3 and 5 years post-gastrectomy. Two external validations were performed using a cohort of 2,198 Chinese patients and a cohort of 504 Italian patients.ResultsIn the training cohort, the 5-year CPCS was 59.2% immediately post-gastrectomy and increased to 68.8%, 79.7%, and 88.8% at 1, 2, and 3 years post-gastrectomy, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that age; tumour site, size and invasion depth; numbers of examined and metastatic lymph nodes; and surgical margins were independent prognostic factors of CSS (all P < 0.05) and formed the nomogram predictor variables. Internal validation showed that the conditional nomogram exhibited good discrimination ability at 3 and 5 years post-gastrectomy (concordance index, 0.794 and 0.789, respectively). External validation showed a 3- and 5-year concordance index of 0.788 and 0.785, respectively, in the Chinese cohort, and 0.792 and 0.787, respectively, in the Italian cohort. Calibration of the nomogram predicted that survival corresponded closely with actual survival.Conclusions: we developed a robust nomogram to predict CPCS after D2 lymphadenectomy for GC based on survival duration.     

Evaluation of dual-energy CT derived radiomics signatures in predicting outcomes in patients with advanced gastric cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

BackgroundTo investigate the prognostic value of dual-energy CT (DECT) based radiomics to predict disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) for patients with advanced gastric cancer (AGC) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC).MethodsFrom January 2014 to December 2018, a total of 156 AGC patients were enrolled and randomly allocated into a training cohort and a testing cohort at a ratio of 2:1. Volume of interest of primary tumor was delineated on eight image series. Four feature sets derived from pre-NAC and delta radiomics were generated for each survival arm. Random survival forest was used for generating the optimal radiomics signature (RS). Statistical metrics for model evaluation included Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and the average cumulative/dynamic AUC throughout follow-up. A clinical model and a combined Rad-clinical model were built for comparison.ResultsThe pre-IU (derived from iodine uptake images before NAC) RS performed best for DFS and OS in the testing cohort (C-indices, 0.784 and 0.698; the average cumulative/dynamic AUCs, 0.80 and 0.77). When compared with the clinical model, the radiomics model had significantly higher C-index to predict DFS in the testing cohort (0.784 vs. 0.635, p < 0.001), but no statistical difference was found for OS (0.698 vs. 0.680, p = 0.473). The combined Rad-clinical models showed improved performance in the testing cohort, with C-indices of 0.810 and 0.710 for DFS and OS, respectively.ConclusionDECT-derived radiomics serves as a promising non-invasive biomarker to predict survival for AGC patients after NAC, providing an opportunity for transforming proper treatment.     

Nomogram for predicting gastric cancer recurrence using biomarker gene expression

BackgroundRecently, researchers have tried to predict patient prognosis using biomarker expression in cancer patients. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram predicting the 5-year recurrence-free probability (RFP) of gastric cancer patients using prognostic biomarker gene expression.MethodsWe enrolled 360 patients in the training data set to develop the predictive model and nomogram. We analyzed the patients’ general variables and the gene expression levels of 10 prognostic biomarker candidates between the nonrecurrence and recurrence groups. We also performed external validation using 420 patients from the validation data set.ResultsThe final nomogram was composed of age, sex, and the expression levels of CAPZA, PPase, OCT-1, PRDX4, gamma-enolase, and c-Myc. The five-year RFPs were 89%, 75%, 54% and 32% for the patients in the low-risk, intermediate-risk, high-risk and very-high-risk groups in the development cohort, respectively. In the external validation cohort, the 5-year RFPs were 89%, 75%, 63% and 60%, respectively. The areas under the curve were 0.718 (95% CI, 0.65–0.78) and 0.640 (95% CI, 0.57–0.70) for the training and validation data sets, respectively. The RFP Kaplan-Meier curves were significantly different among the 4 groups in the training and validation data sets (p < 0.0001).ConclusionThis newly developed nomogram using gene expression can predict the 5-year RFP for gastric cancer patients after surgical treatment. We hope that this nomogram will help in the therapeutic decision between endoscopic treatment and gastrectomy.     

Geriatric Early-Stage Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Patients in Low-risk Population: Omitting Chemotherapy Based on Nomogram

BackgroundConsidering old age and comorbidities, the actual benefit of chemotherapy in older patients with early triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) remains uncertain. We aimed to select appropriate patients who could avoid chemotherapy in this population.MethodsA total of 6482 patients more than 65 years old with T1-2N0-1M0 TNBC in 2010-2015 were extracted from SEER program. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent factors associated with chemotherapy usage. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier plots and log-rank tests. Independent prognostic factors were identified by multivariate Cox analysis. A nomogram predicting breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and a risk stratification model were constructed.ResultsA total of 3379 (52.13%) patients received chemotherapy while 3103 (47.87%) did not. Age, married status, grade, T-stage, N-stage, radiation and breast-conserving surgery (BCS) were significantly associated with chemotherapy usage (all P < .05). Chemotherapy significantly improved OS (HR = 0.606, P < .001) and BCSS (HR = 0.763, P = .006) in the entire population. A nomogram was built by incorporating independent risk factors (age, T-stage, N-stage, grade and radiation). Based on the score of the nomogram, the risk stratification model demonstrated that chemotherapy improved OS (P < .001) and BCSS (P < .001) of patients in the high-risk group (score >180), but not in the low-risk group (score ≤75).ConclusionChemotherapy is beneficial for geriatric patients with T1-2N0-1M0 TNBC in this study, and the risk stratification model indicates the feasibility of sparing chemotherapy in low-risk subgroup without sacrificing survival, providing clinicians tools to weigh the risk–benefit of chemotherapy and customize the individualized treatment accordingly.     

Prognostic value of preoperative inflammatory markers in resectable biliary tract cancer – Validation and comparison of the Glasgow Prognostic Score and Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score in a Western cohort

IntroductionEstablished preoperative prognostic factors for risk stratification of patients with biliary tract cancer (BTC) are lacking. A prognostic value of the inflammation-based Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) and Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) in BTC has been indicated in several Eastern cohorts. We sought to validate and compare the prognostic value of the GPS and the mGPS for overall survival (OS), in a large Western cohort of patients with BTC.Material and methodsWe performed a retrospective single-center study for the period 2009 until 2017. 216 consecutive patients that underwent surgical exploration with a diagnosis of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHCC), intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (IHCC), or gallbladder cancer (GBC) were assessed. GPS and mGPS were calculated where both CRP and albumin were measured pre-operatively (n = 168/216). Survival was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier estimate and uni-/multivariate Cox regression.ResultsGPS and mGPS were negatively associated with survival (p < 0.001/p < 0.001), and the association was significant in all three subgroups. GPS, but not the mGPS, identified an intermediate risk group: with GPS = 1 having better OS than GPS = 2 (p = 0.003), but worse OS than GPS = 0 (p = 0.008). In multivariate analyses of resected patients, GPS (p = 0.001) and mGPS (p = 0.03) remained significant predictors of survival, independent of postoperatively available risk factors.ConclusionsPreoperative GPS and mGPS are independent prognostic factors in BTC. The association to OS was shown in all patients undergoing exploration, in resected patients only, and in both cholangiocarcinoma and gallbladder cancer. Furthermore, GPS – which weights hypoalbuminemia higher – could identify an intermediate risk group.     

Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based nomogram to predict tumor recurrence in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BackgroundTumor recurrence after curative resection is common in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but large-scale long-term prediction on an individual basis has seldom been reported. We aimed to construct an albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade-based nomogram to predict tumor recurrence in patients with HCC undergoing surgical resection.MethodsA total 1038 patients with newly diagnosed HCC undergoing curative resection between 2002 and 2016 were enrolled. Baseline characteristics, tumor status and severity of liver functional reserve were collected. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to predict tumor recurrence and construct the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the discrimination and calibration tests.ResultsAfter a mean follow up time of 30 months, 510 (49%) patients developed tumor recurrence. The cumulative recurrence-free survival at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years were 79%, 51%, 38% and 26%, respectively. In the Cox multivariate model, ALBI grade 2–3, multiple tumors, tumor size equal or large than 2 cm, serum ɑ-fetoprotein level equal or greater than 20 ng/ml and total tumor volume equal or larger than 227 cm³ were independent risk factors associated with tumor recurrence. A nomogram was constructed based on these five variables. Internal validation with 10,380 bootstrapped sample sets had a good concordance of 0.607 (95% of confidence interval: 0.587–0.627). The calibration plots for 1-, 3- and 5-year recurrence-free survival well matched the idealized 45-degree line.ConclusionsALBI is a feasible marker for tumor recurrence. This easy-to-use ALBI grade-based nomogram may predict tumor recurrence for individual HCC patient undergoing surgical resection.     

A nomogram to predict early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein tumour thrombus after R0 liver resection: A large-scale,multicenter study

BackgroundPortal vein tumour thrombus (PVTT) is a significant poor prognostic factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Patients with PVTT limited to a first-order branch or above of the main portal vein (MPV) could benefit from R0 liver resection (LR). A nomogram is needed to predict early postoperative recurrence (ER) in HCC patients with PVTT and to guide selection of these patients for adjuvant therapy to reduce postoperative recurrence risks.MethodsHCC patients with PVTT limited to a first-order branch or above of the MPV after R0 LR as an initial therapy were included. A nomogram using data from a retrospective training cohort was developed with the Cox regression model. The model was tested in a prospective internal validation cohort and three external validation cohorts.ResultsOf 979 patients, 657 developed postoperative ER (67.1%). ER occurred in 165 of 264 patients (62.5%) in the training cohort, 146 of 218 patients (70.0%) in the internal validation cohort, and 204 of 284 patients (71.8%), 77 of 113 patients (68.1%), and 65 of 100 patients (65%) in the three external validation cohorts, respectively. The nomogram included the following variables: hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), PVTT, HBV DNA, satellite nodules, α-fetoprotein, and tumour diameter. The ROC were 0.836, 0.763, 0.802, 0.837, and 0.846 in predicting ER in the five respective cohorts.ConclusionA nomogram was developed and validated to predict postoperative ER in patients with HCC with PVTT after R0 LR. This nomogram could select appropriate patients with high ER risks for postoperative adjuvant therapy.     

Minimum radial margin in pelvic exenteration for locally advanced or recurrent rectal cancer

PurposeThe aim of this study was to clarify the suitable radial margin (RM) for favourable outcomes after pelvic exenteration (PE), focusing on the discrepancy between the concepts of circumferential resection margin (CRM) and traditional R status.MethodsSeventy-three patients with locally advanced (LARC, n = 24) or locally recurrent rectal cancer (LRRC, n = 49) who underwent PE between 2006 and 2018 were retrospectively analysed. Patients were histologically classified into the following 3 groups; wide RM (≥1 mm, n = 45), narrow RM (0–1 mm, n = 10), and exposed RM (n = 18). The analysis was performed not only in the entire cohort but also in each disease group separately.ResultsThe rates of traditional R0 (RM > 0 mm) and wide RM were 75.3% and 61.6%, respectively, resulting in the discrepancy rate of 13.7% between the two concepts. Preoperative radiotherapy was given in 12.3%. In the entire cohort, the local recurrence and overall survival (OS) rates for narrow RMs were significantly worse than those for wide RMs (p < 0.001 and p = 0.002), but were similar to those for exposed RMs. In both LARC and LRRC, RM < 1 mm resulted in significantly worse local recurrence and OS rates compared to the wide RMs. Multivariate analysis showed that RM < 1 mm was an independent risk factor for local recurrence in both LARC (HR 15.850, p = 0.015) and LRRC (HR 4.874, p = 0.005).ConclusionsNarrow and exposed RMs had an almost equal impact on local recurrence and poor OS after PE. Preoperative radiotherapy might have a key role to ensure a wide RM.     

Comparison of the clinical efficacy of a new prognostic stratification for duodenal adenocarcinoma with that of TNM staging: The importance of T status with regard to the prognosis

BackgroundAlthough the current staging system and therapeutic strategy for duodenal adenocarcinoma (DA) focus on the N status, their validity has not been clarified. In this study, we evaluated the prognostic factors of DA and reviewed the current staging system.MethodsWe included 105 patients who underwent surgical resection of DA in our department between September 2006 and October 2020. Patients with localised disease other than an early tumour (pT1a) were classified into the advanced group, and prognostic factors were compared with those for the Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) classification, 8th edition.ResultsThe 5-year overall survival (OS) rate in the advanced group (n = 55) was 73%. Multivariate analysis revealed that pT4 and pN2 statuses were independent prognostic factors for OS. The prognosis was stratified based on the pT4 and pN2 statuses, whereas the survival curves for patients with pStage II (pN0) and pStage IIIA (pN1) DA overlapped on staging according to the UICC classification. The new classification indicated a favourable prognosis for patients classified as pT1-3N1 stage IIIA (5-year OS, 86%), whereas the prognosis of patients with pT4N0-1 DA was similar to those classified as pT1-3N2 stage IIIB. Patients with pT4N2 DA had a similar prognosis (5-year OS, 24%) as those with metastases, and 75% of these patients showed distant metastasis within one year after surgery.ConclusionBoth T and N statuses affect the prognosis of DA. Patients with pT4N2 DA may require intensive adjuvant chemotherapy. (238 words)     

Surgical treatment of breast cancer liver metastases - A nationwide registry-based case control study

IntroductionThe benefit of liver resection or ablation for breast cancer liver metastases (BCLM) remains unclear. The aim of the study was to determine survival after isolated BCLM in nationwide cohorts and compare surgical versus systemic treatment regimens.Materials and methodsThe Swedish register for cancer in the liver and the bile ducts (SweLiv) and the National register for breast cancer (NBCR) was studied to identify patients with 1–5 BCLM without extrahepatic spread diagnosed 2009–2016. Data from the registers were validated and completed by review of medical records. A Kaplan-Meier plot and log rank test were used to analyse survival. Prognostic and predictive factors were evaluated by Cox regression analysis.ResultsA surgical cohort (n = 29) was identified and compared to a control cohort (n = 33) receiving systemic treatment only. There was no 90-day mortality after surgery. Median survival from BCLM diagnosis was 77 months (95% CI 41–113) in the surgical cohort and 28 months (95% CI 13–43) in the control cohort, (p = 0.004). There was a longer disease-free interval and more oestrogen receptor positive tumours in the surgical cohort. Surgery was a significant positive predictive factor in univariate analysis while a multivariable analysis resulted in HR 0.478 (CI 0.193–1.181, p = 0.110) for surgical treatment.ConclusionSurgery for BCLM is safe and might provide a survival benefit in selected patients but prospective trials are warranted to avoid selection bias.