Simplified acute physiology score II: A valid role in the assessment of patients with medically refractory upper gastrointestinal bleeding?

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Medically refractory upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) is a complex clinical problem. Selection of patients suitable for surgery is difficult and often involves subjective clinical judgment. The simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II is a validated predictor of mortality in the intensive care setting. Our aim was to assess the SAPS II score in patients with medically refractory UGIH who were referred for a surgical opinion. Patients were subsequently classed as 'accepted' or 'declined' for surgery and SAPS II scores were compared between these two groups. METHODS: From July 1996 to July 1999, patients referred for surgical intervention with UGIH were included (varices excluded). The SAPS II was calculated at the time of surgical referral. This was converted into a mortality probability using multiple regression analysis. Clinical outcome was defined as either survival to discharge or death while an inpatient. RESULTS: Ninety-nine patients were referred for surgical review. Sixty-five patients were accepted for surgery and 34 were declined. The mean SAPS II score for those who were accepted was 31.7 (mortality probability 0.16, actual mortality 15.4%, 10/65) and 30.2 (mortality probability 0.15, actual mortality 29.4%, 10/34) for those who were declined. CONCLUSION: The SAPS II scores were no different between the two groups. Observed mortality was consistent with mortality predicted in the operated group but twice that predicted in those where surgical intervention was declined. This suggests that clinical selection criteria for patients undergoing surgery for UGIH are inconsistent.     

Is there a role for maintaining sinus rhythm in patients with atrial fibrillation?

Recent studies have indicated that outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation who are managed with rate control and anticoagulation are similar to those in patients who have maintenance of sinus rhythm. These studies did not include important groups of patients with atrial fibrillation in whom antiarrhythmic therapy may be appropriate. This perspective argues for the maintenance of sinus rhythm and for the use of antiarrhythmic therapy that includes medications, invasive procedures, and a combination of both in appropriate patients.