Projected use of long-term-care services by enrolled Veterans

PURPOSE: The purpose of this article is to describe the projected use for long-term-care services through 2012. DESIGN AND METHODS: We constructed a static-component projection model using age, function, and other covariates. We obtained enrollee projections from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) and combined these with nursing home and community long-term-care service use rates from the 1999 National Long-Term Care Survey and the 2000 National Health Interview Survey. RESULTS: Over the next decade, the number of oldest veterans (aged 85+) will double, and VHA-enrolled veterans aged 85 and older will increase sevenfold. This will result in a 20-25% increase in use for both nursing home and home- and community-based services. VHA currently concentrates 90% of its long-term-care resources on nursing home care. However, among those who receive long-term care from all formal sources, 56% receive care in the community. Age and marital status are significant predictors of use of either type of formal long-term-care service for any given level of disability. VHA's experience with the mandatory nursing home benefit suggests that even when the cost to the veteran is near zero, only 60-65% of eligibles will choose VHA-provided care. Assisted living represents nearly 15% of care provided during the past decade to individuals in nursing homes, and approximately 19% of veterans using nursing homes have disability levels comparable to those of men supported in assisted living. IMPLICATIONS: As most of the increased projected use for long-term care will be for home- and community-based services, VHA will need to expand those resources. Use of VHA resources to leverage community services may offer new opportunities to enhance community-based long-term care.     

Home care and health reform: changes in home care utilization in one Canadian province, 1990-2000

PURPOSE: This study examines population-based trends in home care service utilization, alone and in conjunction with hospitalizations, during a period of health reform in Canada. It focuses on the extent to which observed trends suggest enhanced community-based care relative to three competing hypotheses: cost-cutting, medicalization, and profitization. DESIGN AND METHODS: Analyses drew on administrative health data from the province of British Columbia for the period from 1990 through 2000. Annual trends in age- and gender-adjusted utilization rates are examined by use of joinpoint regression; multivariate analyses draw on generalized linear modeling. RESULTS: Home support claims decreased significantly during the study period. There was less evidence of decline with regard to home nursing care claims and the extent of both home support and home nursing care. Intensity of care increased for home support services but decreased somewhat for home nursing care. Multivariate analyses revealed a decline in joint use of home support and hospital care and little change in joint use of home nursing and hospital care. Similarities as well as differences in trends are evident across age groups. IMPLICATIONS: The findings suggest a reduction and reallocation of health services in general rather than a shift of focus toward community-based care. In this way, they appear more consistent with a cost-reduction hypothesis than with expectations of enhanced community-based care that are generated by recent health reform initiatives.     

Health and long-term care use trajectories of older disabled women

PURPOSE: I examined health and long-term care use trajectories of a sample of chronically disabled older women eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid by exploring their use data in order to understand and anticipate the increasing demand on the health and long-term care delivery systems as aging female baby boomers reach age 65 and older. DESIGN AND METHODS: A sample of older disabled women in Ohio who completed preadmission review was divided into three groups on the basis of the setting in which they received their initial long-term care services. RESULTS: I was able to establish a long-term care career for the sample members beginning with receiving long-term care in the community, followed by a transition stage in which care was received in the community and in a nursing home, and finally by a stage at which they entered and remained in a nursing home. As the sample members proceeded along their long-term care career and their health and disability status worsened, I found a clear shift in the kind of care needed from hospital and home care to nursing home care. There was also a shift in the major payer, from Medicare to Medicaid. IMPLICATIONS: As the baby boomers age, a much larger number of women will be disabled and need health and long-term care services. For a considerable number of these women, Medicaid gradually becomes the major payer for care, an issue that needs close observation.     

Predictors of advance directive restrictiveness and compliance with institutional policy in a long-term-care facility.

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain factors influencing the level of advance directives selected by nursing home residents or surrogates and the time delay to documentation of these choices in the medical record after implementation of a facility-wide policy. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study of nursing home residents followed from date of advance directive policy initiation or time of admission for a maximum of 21 months from study commencement. SETTING: A 315-bed multilevel nursing home. PARTICIPANTS: Four hundred twenty-four nursing home residents (mean age 85, 74.9% female, 96.1% white). OUTCOME MEASURES: Level of advance directive status chosen--full code, do not resuscitate (DNR) or palliative care only--and date documented in the medical record. RESULTS: Factors predictive of restricted advance directives (DNR or palliative care) included age greater than 85 years (P = 0.025), documented use of a surrogate decision maker (P = 0.001), low physical function (P less than 0.001), low cognitive function (P less than 0.001), and having a nursing home-employed physician (P = 0.001). These results were confirmed using logistic regression models. Median time to directive documentation decreased from 54 days for residents admitted in the first quarter to 1 day for residents admitted in the fourth quarter of the year following initiation of an advance directive policy. CONCLUSION: In logistic models, nursing home-employed physicians were more likely to write restricted advance directive orders than community-based physicians even after controlling for resident age, cognitive status, and physical function. In addition, implementation of a formal nursing home advance directive policy can shorten time to physician documentation of resident advance directive status.     

Access to community-based long-term care: Medicaid's role

OBJECTIVE. The authors explore state variation in expenditures for Medicaid community-based care services for the period 1990 to 1997. METHOD. A random effects panel model is used to explore the relationship between state demographic, supply, economic, programmatic, and political factors and states' Medicaid community-based care expenditures. RESULTS. Although states increased provision of services over the study period, significant state-level variation was evident. Expenditures were positively associated with state per capita income, regulation of nursing home bed supply, and the number of Medicare home health users but were negatively related to nursing home bed supply. CONCLUSIONS. Recent legal rulings, combined with the demonstrated preferences of most individuals to receive care in the community, require policies to foster the expansion of Medicaid community-based care. The most consistent relationships that are amenable to policy intervention relate to state fiscal resources and long-term care supply regulation.     

Characteristics predicting nursing home admission in the program of all-inclusive care for elderly people

PURPOSE: This study determined overall risk and predictors of long-term nursing home admission within the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). DESIGN AND METHODS: DataPACE records for 4,646 participants aged 55 years or older who were enrolled in 12 Medicare- and Medicaid-capitated PACE programs during the period from June 1, 1990, to June 30, 1998, were obtained. Participants were enrolled for at least 30 days and had baseline evaluations within 30 days of enrollment. Cox proportional hazard models predicting an outcome of nursing home admission of 30 days or longer were estimated. RESULTS: The cumulative risk of admission to nursing homes for 30 days or longer was 14.9% within 3 years. Individuals enrolled from a nursing home were at very high risk for future admission, with a relative risk of 5.20 when compared with those living alone. Among individuals enrolled in PACE from the community, age, instrumental activity of daily living dependence, and bowel incontinence were predictive of subsequent nursing home admission. Asians and Blacks had a lower risk of institutionalization than Whites. However, other characteristics were not independently predictive of institutionalization, namely poor cognitive status, number of chronic conditions, activity of daily living deficits, urinary incontinence, several behavioral disturbances, and duration of program operation. Before adjusting for other variables, there was substantial site variability in risk of nursing home admission; this decreased considerably after other characteristics were adjusted for. IMPLICATIONS: Despite the fact that 100% of the PACE participants were nursing home certifiable, the risk of being admitted to a nursing home long term following enrollment from the community is low. The presence of some reversible risk factors may have implications for early intervention to reduce risk further, although the effect of these interventions is likely to be modest. Individuals who received long-term care in a nursing home prior to enrollment in PACE remain at high risk of readmission, despite the availability of comprehensive services.     

Pathways to hospital death among the oldest old

Using the 1986 National Mortality Followback Survey (N = 2,090), this research examines the conditions under which the oldest old (85+ years of age) are discharged from a nursing home to enter and die in a hospital as well as the conditions under which community dwellers enter and die in a hospital. Given the need to plan for health services for this growing population and the recent policy changes in length of hospital stay, this analysis focuses on pathways leading to a hospital death. Results suggest that the factors that influence site of death are necessarily quite distinct for those who have entered the institutional long-term care system versus those who have not. Among institutionalized patients, the incidence of an acute condition appears to precipitate hospitalization, whereas among community dwellers, the presence of a social support network and the decedent's race are the only salient factors predicting hospital death. Implications are discussed.     

Predicting state Medicaid home and community based waiver participants and expenditures, 1992-1997

PURPOSE: The study examined trends and predictors of state Medicaid home and community based waiver participants and expenditures from 1992 to 1997 to identify factors of interest to policy makers and clinicians. DESIGN AND METHODS: HCFA Form 372 data were collected from state officials for each waiver for each year. Two separate regression analyses were conducted to examine the effects of sociodemographic, economic, political, policy, and health services on state waiver participants and expenditures. RESULTS: State waiver participants were positively associated with those aged 85 and over, personal income, residential care beds, and inpatient users and negatively with home health regulation and nursing home beds. State waiver expenditures were positively associated with democratic governors, personal income, home health reimbursement methods, Medicaid eligibility, home health agencies, and Medicare home health users. IMPLICATIONS: The factors policy makers might consider changing include increasing the number of residential care beds and home health agencies, removing certificate of need for home health care, using Medicare home health reimbursement methods for Medicaid, and raising the Medicaid eligibility criteria. In some states with low nursing home occupancy rates, reducing the supply of nursing home beds may also be considered. All of these approaches would be controversial and should be based on additional cost-effectiveness analysis.     

Predictors of discharge to a skilled nursing facility following hip fracture surgery in New York State

BACKGROUND: Hip fracture is always a very traumatic event, especially for an older person. Often, it is followed by a marked decrease in the level of functioning a patient is able to achieve after recovery. It is even more debilitating when a previously independent person must be discharged to an institution. OBJECTIVE: This study examined factors and trends associated with discharge to a skilled nursing facility following hip fracture surgery. METHODS: Data were analyzed for 89,723 hip fracture patients admitted in New York State from 1986 to 1996. Factors examined included age, gender, race, type of fracture, surgical technique, comorbidities, length of hospitalization and year of admission. RESULTS: Thirty-five percent (32,130) of the patients were discharged to skilled nursing facilities. They tended to be 85+ years old, female, white, have 3+ comorbidities, a history of dementia, have sustained an intertrochanteric fracture, and have been admitted after 1990. In addition, there was a gradual increase in institutionalizations after 1990. CONCLUSION: In this study, factors were found that predicted discharge to skilled nursing facilities following hip fracture.     

Factors related to satisfaction with long-term care services among low-income Korean elderly adults: A national cross-sectional survey

BackgroundWith the growing demand for long-term care (LTC) services, it is increasingly important to explore experience with care. This study examined care satisfaction in a nursing home and at home among low-income elders in South Korea.MethodsThis cross-sectional study was conducted with 246 elderly recipients of welfare benefits using a proportional stratified sampling method. Two self-reported versions of a questionnaire developed for users of nursing home care and homecare were used.ResultsThose at home reported higher care satisfaction than those in nursing homes did. Both users of nursing home care and homecare were less satisfied with the food served. Users of nursing homes had comparatively less satisfaction regarding the daily activities available to them and less autonomy concerning their care decisions. Factors that influenced satisfaction with nursing home care and homecare were the quality of caregivers, care facilities, and physical wellbeing.ConclusionsAn approach focused on improving the quality of the care facilities and caregivers could help enhance care satisfaction among low-income Korean elders receiving LTC.     

Disability trends in Hong Kong community-dwelling Chinese older adults: 1996, 2000, and 2004

OBJECTIVE: This article examines the trends of disability in six activities of daily living (ADLs) among Hong Kong community-dwelling older adults during the period from 1996 to 2004 by using three independent cross-sectional surveys of representative samples. METHOD: Logistic regression was performed to assess the association between the year of survey and the presence of any ADL limitation with a wide range of covariates. RESULTS: We found that older adults in 2004 were more likely to report ADL disability than their counterparts in 1996, and the results would remain valid after considering the prevalence of ADL disability in nursing home residents. In addition, we found that age, education, the use of proxy, and the presence of six medical conditions were significantly related to ADL limitation. DISCUSSION: In general, public health efforts to prevent ADL limitation should be supported to reduce the demand for long-term care services in the coming decades.     

Determinants of remaining in the community after discharge: results from New Jersey's Nursing Home Transition Program

PURPOSE: To inform states with nursing home transition programs, we determine what risk factors are associated with participants' long-term readmission to nursing homes within 1 year after discharge. DESIGN AND METHODS: We obtained administrative data for all 1,354 nursing home residents who were discharged, and we interviewed 628 transitioning through New Jersey's nursing home transition program in 2000. We used the Andersen behavioral model to select predictors of long-term nursing home readmission, and we used Cox proportional hazards regressions to examine the relative risk of experiencing such readmissions. RESULTS: Overall, 72.6% of the 1,354 individuals remained in the community, with 8.6% readmitted to a nursing home for long stays (>90 days) and 18.8% dying during the study year. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that being male, single, and dissatisfied with one's living situation; living with others; and falling within 8 to 10 weeks after discharge were significant predictors of long-term nursing home readmission during the first year after discharge. IMPLICATIONS: Most of the factors predicting long-term readmission were predisposing, not need, factors. This fact points to the limits of formulaic approaches to assessing candidates for discharge and the importance of working with clients to understand and address their particular vulnerabilities. Consumers, state policy makers, nursing home transition staff, discharge planners, and caregivers can use these findings to understand and help clients understand their particular risks and options, and to identify those individuals needing the greatest attention during the transition period as well as risk-specific services such as fall-prevention programs that should be made available to them.     

Financing long-term care. An insurance-based approach

A joint public-private insurance program is the best approach to resolving the problem of financing long-term care. In this report, we describe one possible approach in detail. A modest expansion of the current (ie, after repeal of the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Law of 1988) Medicare benefit for persons needing relatively short-term nursing home and home care services would be a first step. For those with extended long-term service needs, a non-means tested, publicly funded program with joint federal-state financing and administration would provide coverage after a substantial elimination period and with an income-related copayment. Private long-term care insurance purchased through employers before retirement or in the periretirement period, through use of income or equity accumulated in life insurance, pension funds, or home ownership, would be used to fund the exclusionary period or copayments of the public program by those who wish to have greater protection for income or assets. The role of Medicaid would be limited to paying for the deductible, copayments, and initial long-stay expenses of those with low incomes and limited assets.     

Client-related risk factors of nursing home entry among elderly adults

We estimated the relative importance of various client characteristics related to nursing home entry for a national probability sample of Medicare recipients and developed predictive models of nursing home entry that account for the interactive effects among variables. In contrast with previous research, we focused on the characteristics of nursing home entrants, not residents. By using a national sample we ensured that the influence of regional variations in the configuration of long-term care services would not confound estimates of the relative effect of client-related factors. Nine variables emerged as statistically significant predictors: age, being confined to a bed, requiring help to get around, requiring aid getting around, being widowed, never married, welfare as a payment source, insurance as a payment source, and perceived health status. When these factors were controlled for, sex, geographic region, and educational status were not statistically significant.     

Caregiver burden should be evaluated during geriatric assessment

This study examines the relationship between caregiver burden and use of long-term care services following geriatric assessment. One hundred nine older subjects underwent comprehensive assessment, which included a questionnaire completed by the primary caregiver to assess the sense of burden in providing care. Logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of service use at 12 months. Among measures of the older person's cognitive and physical abilities, only activities of daily living predicted increased use of services. When the measure of caregiver burden was added, it also entered as an independent predictor, which significantly improved the prediction of service use (chi 2 = 5.9, P less than .02). In a separate analysis, caregiver burden predicted both the use of home services and nursing-home placement. During longitudinal follow-up, the measure of burden decreased over 12 months for the sample, with the greatest reduction in burden occurring for caregivers whose relative was placed in a nursing home. The fact that caregiver burden was the most important factor in determining who would use formal services suggests that burden should be evaluated as part of geriatric assessment.     

Nursing load in different care alternatives in Sweden during 18 years

In a repeated cross-sectional study, changes in nursing load and changes in care organisation (1978-1996) were studied in Sundsvall, Sweden. A total of 4555 nursing load measurements on elderly people were performed on four occasions (1978, 1988, 1993 and 1996). The nursing load has increased considerably at the nursing homes and at the homes for the aged during the whole period. In home care, the nursing load did not increase between 1978 and 1993, but it increased considerably between 1993 and 1996. The mean age of the residents, the number of persons with dementia, as well as the mean age, also increased. Between 1978 and 1996, the number of institutional resources decreased by 38%, while home care resources increased by 421%. The considerable increase in nursing load presents a worrying scenario when it is combined with the expected increase of the oldest old.     

Nursing Home Admission and Initiation of Domiciliary Care Following Infective Endocarditis

Background

Infective endocarditis (IE) may cause debilitating physical and mental changes that can interfere with activities of daily living. Admission to a nursing home and need for domiciliary care following hospitalization for IE represent such relevant outcomes, yet no such data have been reported.

Physician Attitudes Concerning Anticoagulation Services in the Long-Term Care Setting

Objectives: There is little experience in the use of specialized anticoagulation services in the long-term care setting. Even less is known about physician attitudes regarding these services. To examine this issue, we surveyed physicians caring for nursing home residents in a sample of long-term care facilities located in Connecticut. Methods: We surveyed physicians providing care to nursing home residents of a convenience sample of 21 Connecticut nursing homes. (These facilities had participated in a quality assessment and improvement project on preventing strokes in nursing home residents with atrial fibrillation.) Physicians were requested to complete a structured questionnaire about the challenges to managing nursing home residents on warfarin therapy and preferences concerning the use of an anticoagulation service to manage warfarin therapy in this setting. Results: A total of 245 physicians were asked to participate in the survey, and 114 (47%) responded between November 5, 1999 and January 14, 2000. Of the 114 physicians who returned the survey, 91 reported that they currently cared for residents in long-term care facilities and thus completed the questionnaire. The majority of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that an anticoagulation service would reduce the workload on physicians, increase the costs of care for nursing home residents on warfarin, and increase the percent of time that nursing home residents on warfarin are maintained in the target therapeutic range. Most physicians disagreed or strongly disagreed with statements suggesting an anticoagulation service would decrease the costs of care for nursing home residents on warfarin, reduce the liability of the prescribing physician, interfere with their ability to care for patients on warfarin therapy, and reduce the risk of warfarin-related bleeding. Forty-five percent of respondents agreed with a statement that an anticoagulation service would intrude on physician decision-making. Only about half (53%) of the respondents indicated that they would or might utilize an anticoagulation service for managing their long-term care patients on warfarin. Conclusions: Use of a specialized anticoagulation service to manage warfarin therapy is a systems-level approach with the potential to improve the effectiveness and safety of this treatment. Physician skepticism regarding the usefulness of anticoagulation services will only be overcome by subjecting this approach to rigorous evaluation and by assuring physicians of their ongoing involvement in decision-making regarding warfarin therapy in their patients.     

Advance care planning and end-of-life care for hospitalized nursing home residents

OBJECTIVES: To describe advance care planning (ACP) and end-of-life care for nursing home residents who are hospitalized in the last 6 weeks of life. DESIGN: Constant comparative analysis of deceased nursing home resident cases.SETTING: A not-for-profit Jewish nursing home. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-three deceased residents hospitalized within the last 6 weeks of life at a tertiary medical center. MEASUREMENTS: Trained nurse reviewers abstracted data from nursing home records and gerontological advanced practice nurse field notes. Clinical and outcome data from the original study were used to describe the sample. Data were analyzed using the constant comparative method and validated in interviews with a gerontological advanced practice nurse and social worker. RESULTS: The analysis revealed distinct characteristics and identifiable transition points in ACP and end-of-life care with frail nursing home residents. ACP was addressed by social workers as part of the nursing home admission process, focused primarily on cardiopulmonary resuscitation preference, and reviewed only after the crisis of acute illness and hospitalization. Advance directive forms specifying preferences or limitations for life-sustaining treatment contained inconsistent language and vague conditions for implementation. ACP review generally resulted in gradual limitation of life-sustaining treatment. Transition points included nursing home admission, acute illness or hospitalization, and decline toward death. Relatively few nursing home residents received hospice services, with most hospice referrals and palliative care treatment delayed until the week before death. Most residents in this sample died without family present and with little documented evidence of pain or symptom management. CONCLUSION: Limiting discussion of advance care plans to cardiopulmonary resuscitation falsely dichotomized and oversimplified the choices about medical treatment and care at end-of-life, especially palliative care alternatives, for these older nursing home residents. Formal hospice services were underutilized, and palliative care efforts by nursing home staff were often inconsistent with accepted standards. These results reinforce the need for research and program initiatives in long-term care to improve and facilitate individualized ACP and palliative care at end of life.