First IVF treatment--short-term impact on psychological well-being and the marital relationship

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to assess infertile couples' short-term emotional responses to their first IVF treatment (the women's and men's emotional reactions and their experiences of the marital relationship at different stages of the first treatment) and to relate these responses to the outcome of the IVF treatment. METHODS: The study was part of a prospective, longitudinal study where 117 couples participated. The women and men answered questionnaires separately concerning psychological and social factors at three occasions: before, during and 1 month after treatment. RESULTS: Women's and men's emotional reactions related to first IVF treatment were dependent on whether they achieved a pregnancy or not. Those who failed to become pregnant rated their emotional well-being worse, whereas those who became pregnant rated their emotional well-being better than before treatment started. The women reported stronger emotional reactions about their infertility than their husbands. However, the men reacted in the same emotional pattern as their wives when pregnancy was not achieved. A majority reported that the marital relationship improved during treatment. CONCLUSION: Couples undergoing their first IVF treatment are as a group well adjusted and manage to handle the short-term emotional strain under treatment. The determining factor for short-term emotional response of treatment was whether pregnancy was achieved.     

Definition and prevalence of subfertility and infertility

A common definition of sub- and infertility is very important for the appropriate management of infertility. Subfertility generally describes any form of reduced fertility with prolonged time of unwanted non-conception. Infertility may be used synonymously with sterility with only sporadically occurring spontaneous pregnancies. The major factor affecting the individual spontaneous pregnancy prospect is the time of unwanted non-conception which determines the grading of subfertility. Most of the pregnancies occur in the first six cycles with intercourse in the fertile phase (80%). After that, serious subfertility must be assumed in every second couple (10%) although--after 12 unsuccessful cycles--untreated live birth rates among them will reach nearly 55% in the next 36 months. Thereafter (48 months), approximately 5% of the couples are definitive infertile with a nearly zero chance of becoming spontaneously pregnant in the future. With age, cumulative probabilities of conception decline because heterogeneity in fecundity increases due to a higher proportion of infertile couples. In truly fertile couples cumulative probabilities of conception are probably age independent. Under appropriate circumstances a basic infertility work-up after six unsuccessful cycles with fertility-focused intercourse will identify couples with significant infertility problems to avoid both infertility under- and over-treatment, regardless of age: Couples with a reasonably good prognosis (e.g. unexplained infertility) may be encouraged to wait because even with treatment they do not have a better chance of conceiving. The others may benefit from an early resort to assisted reproduction treatment.     

Review of unexplained infertility and obstetric outcome: a 10 year review.

BACKGROUND: Increased maternal and fetal risks have been reported in pregnancies following unexplained infertility. Our aims were to examine the obstetric and perinatal outcome of singleton pregnancies in couples with unexplained infertility and explore the impact of fertility treatment. METHODS: Women with unexplained infertility were identified from the Aberdeen Fertility Clinic Database. Their unit numbers were matched against the Aberdeen Maternity and Neonatal Databank (AMND) in order to extract obstetric records of those women with subsequent pregnancy outcomes. The general obstetric population served as a control group. RESULTS: Women with unexplained infertility were older [30.8 versus 27.9 years, 95% confidence interval (CI) for difference = +2.4 to +3.4] and more likely to be primiparous (59 versus 40%, 95% CI = +1.3 to +1.9). After adjusting for age and parity they had a higher incidence of pre-eclampsia, abruptio placentae, preterm labour, emergency Caesarean section and induction of labour in comparison with the general population (P < 0.05). Perinatal outcome did not differ between women with unexplained infertility and those of the general population. The multiple pregnancy rate was 5.4% higher following fertility treatment than in women who conceived spontaneously (95% CI = +2.8 to +9.7). CONCLUSIONS: Women with unexplained infertility are at higher risk of obstetric complications which persist even after adjusting for age, parity and fertility treatment. The reasons are however unclear and merit further study.     

In-vivo transperitoneal fertilization

We present the technique of in-vivo transperitoneal fertilization (IVTPF) as a first approach to infertility treatment in couples with male subfertility or unexplained factors. The technique is statistically less successful but also less invasive than either gamete intra-Fallopian transfer (GIFT) or in-vitro fertilization - embryo transfer (IVFET) and offers considerable advantages over intrauterine insemination (IUI). The IVTPF technique involves transperitoneal transfer of processed spermatozoa within the pouch of Douglas after induction of ovulation. We report our 4-year experience with IVTPF which includes 136 treatment cycles in 89 couples. Eight pregnancies were achieved in 89 patients (9%) and 136 treatment cycles (7%). Fifty-one patients (57%) received IVTPF for only one treatment cycle; seven of the eight IVTPF pregnancies occurred in this group. An ectopic pregnancy resulted in one of the eight IVTPF pregnancies (13%). The functional quality of the sperm in those couples who achieved pregnancy was statistically superior to those couples who did not conceive. However, pregnancy was also obtained in case of severe oligozoospermia. Based on our experience, we feel IVTPF to be a very reasonable first approach in patients with no pelvic pathology and with infertility secondary to male factors or unexplained causes.     

The psychological influence of gender infertility diagnoses among men about to start IVF or ICSI treatment using their own sperm

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to investigate the psychological influence of gender infertility diagnoses among men in couples about to start their first IVF or ICSI treatment. METHODS: The study was a part of a prospective study of 65 men with male infertility diagnosis and 101 men in couples with female, mixed and unexplained infertility diagnoses. Of the 200 men invited, 166 agreed to participate (83% response rate). The men answered questionnaires concerning psychological and social factors on three occasions, at the information meeting held 2-4 weeks prior to first treatment, 1 h before oocyte retrieval and 2 weeks after the pregnancy test. RESULTS: The main findings of this study gave no indication that male infertility influenced men negatively concerning their experience of infertility, view of life and relationships and psychological well-being. We found that men with a male factor infertility diagnosis reacted in a similar way as compared with men in couples where the diagnosis was female, mixed or unexplained infertility. CONCLUSIONS: In general, men are well adjusted with regard to a first IVF/ICSI treatment cycle, independent of gender infertility diagnoses.     

Cumulative pregnancy rates in couples with anovulatory infertility compared with unexplained infertility in an ovulation induction programme

Using a retrospective analysis, we compared cumulative pregnancy rates, early pregnancy failure rates and multiple pregnancy rates in couples with polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) (n = 148), hypogonadotrophic or eugonadotrophic hypogonadism (n = 91) and unexplained infertility (n = 117), who were treated in an ovulation induction clinic between January 1991 and December 1995. The women were treated with either human menopausal gonadotrophin (HMG) or purified follicle stimulating hormone (FSH). The cumulative pregnancy rate (derived from life-table analysis) after four ovulatory treatment cycles was 70% in the PCOS group, 74% in the hypogonadism group and 38% in the unexplained infertility group. The cumulative pregnancy rate in the unexplained infertility group was significantly lower than the other groups (P < 0.001) but there was no significant difference between PCOS and hypogonadism using the log rank test. The early pregnancy failure rate was 25% in the PCOS group, 27% in the hypogonadism group and 26% in the unexplained infertility group (chi(2) = 0.132, not significant). The multiple pregnancy rate was 20% in the PCOS group, 30% in the hypogonadism group and 17% in the unexplained infertility group (chi(2) = 2.105, not significant). Treatment of anovulatory infertility using HMG or FSH is effective irrespective of the cause. Couples with unexplained infertility are less successfully treated using HMG: correction of unexplained infertility may involve more than simple correction of possible subtle ovulatory defects.      

Homologous intra-uterine insemination has no advantage over timed natural intercourse when used in combination with ovulation induction for the treatment of unexplained infertility

The objective was to evaluate the role of homologous intra-uterineinsemination compared with timed natural intercourse, both combinedwith ovulation induction, in the management of unexplained infertility.A total of 48 couples presenting at a large teaching hospitalinfertility clinic with unexplained infertility of at least3 years duration comprised the main study group, and 36 coupleswith identical entry criteria but under the care of anotherclinician made up a parallel control group. A randomized designof treatment cycles with within-group and between-group controlswas used. Couples in the main study group were treated witheither homologous intra-uterine insemination or timed naturalintercourse in gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogue down-regulatedcycles, in which ovulation was induced with human menopausalgonadotrophin and human chorionic gonadotrophin. Alternate cycleswere monitored to enable optimum timing of natural intercourseprovided within-group controls. Couples in the control groupunderwent timed homologous intravaginal artificial insemination.Cycle fecundity and pregnancy outcome in treated and controlgroups were monitored. Cycle fecundity of 0.11 in 85 ovulation-inducedcycles was significantly higher than 0.02 in 62 within-groupand 0.01 in 103 between-group control cycles. There was no differencein conception rates between homologous intra-uterine inseminationand timed natural intercourse cycles with ovulation induction.Of the 11 established pregnancies in the ovulation induced group,nine delivered healthy babies (five singleton, three twin, onetriplet) and two were ectopic. Results confirmed the value ofactive management for couples with long-standing unexplainedinfertility but failed to demonstrate any advantage of homologousintra-uterine insemination over ovulation induction alone.     

子宫内膜微创术及宫腔内人工授精治疗不明原因不孕的疗效观察

目的观察子宫内膜微创术及宫腔内人工授精治疗不明原因不孕患者的疗效。方法选择2008年3月至2009年9月因不明原因不孕在不孕不育门诊就诊的患者108例。所有患者均进行过3次及以上正规宫腔内人工授精未孕。以上患者随机分为研究组47例,对照组61例。研究组于月经周期第8-10天行子宫内膜微创术,用5号刮匙酌情轻微搔刮子宫内膜壁,当周期于卵泡成熟破裂前后行IUI。对照组仅行IUI。结果研究组47例共进行82周期治疗,对照组61例共进行125周期治疗,研究组临床妊娠率20.73%,累积妊娠率36.17%。对照组妊娠率12%,累积妊娠率24.59%。结论子宫内膜微创术联合IUI治疗,可明显提高不明原因不孕患者的妊娠率,无毒副作用,易于操作,值得基层推广应用。     

Cancer and male infertility: Gamete intra-Fallopian transfer or in-vitro fertilization after failed ovarian stimulation and intrauterine insemination in unexplained infertility?

A prospective randomized study was designed to compare gameteintra-Fallopian transfer (GIFT) and in-vitro fertilization (IVF)and embryo transfer in the treatment of couples who have failedto conceive after at least three cycles of ovarian stimulationand intrauterine insemination (IUI). A total of 69 couples withprimary unexplained infertility of at least 2 years' durationplus at least three failed cycles of ovarian stimulation andIUI were randomly allocated to either GIFT or IVF/embryo transfer.The clinical pregnancy rate was 34% after GIFT treatment and50% after IVF/embryo transfer. This difference was not statisticallysignificant. The twin rate in the IVF/embryo transfer groupwas higher than in the GIFT group (53 versus 17%, P = 0.005).We conclude that patients with unexplained infertility and failedovarian stimulation and IUI can still achieve encouraging pregnancyrates with IVF/embryo transfer or GIFT. Since IVF/embryo transferis the least invasive of the two procedures and may yield diagnosticinformation, we would favour this therapy; however, the numberof embryos transferred should be reduced to two to reduce therisk of twin pregnancy.     

Men's body mass index and infertility

BACKGROUND: In men, excess weight may be linked with altered testosterone, estradiol levels, poor semen quality and infertility. We investigated whether higher BMI among men is associated with infertility and if so, to what extent that effect might be mediated by altered sexual function. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of pregnancies from 1999 through 2005 based within the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). Questionnaires assessed mother's and father's height and weight and time to pregnancy. Our sample comprises 26 303 planned pregnancies. Couples were considered infertile if they took >or=12 months to achieve pregnancy or received infertility treatment. RESULTS: After adjusting for the woman's BMI, coital frequency and the ages and smoking habits of both partners, the odds ratio for infertility was 1.20 for overweight men [BMI 25-29.9; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-1.38] and 1.36 for obese men (BMI 30-34.9; 95% CI = 1.13-1.63) relative to men with low-normal BMI (20.0-22.4). When BMI was divided into eight categories, there was a trend of increased infertility with increased male BMI. The effect of men's BMI was nearly identical when coital frequency was not included indicating that the effect is not mediated by sexual dysfunction in heavier men. CONCLUSIONS: This study adds further support that men with excess body weight are at increased risk of infertility. Values may be underestimated because the most severe cases, couples who do not conceive, are not included in this birth cohort. Research is needed to see if weight loss improves fertility for these men.     

Preconception peripheral natural killer cell activity as a predictor of pregnancy outcome in patients with unexplained infertility

PROBLEM: Preconception high peripheral natural killer (NK) cell activity in women with recurrent spontaneous abortion can predict subsequent miscarriages. We have examined prospectively, for the first time, the pregnancy rate in patients with unexplained infertility by measuring the peripheral NK activity. METHOD OF STUDY: We tested the peripheral NK activity of 94 infertile women who despite treatment were unable to conceive for 6 or more months (mean; 2.4 years). Peripheral NK activity was measured by a chromium-51 release cytotoxicity assay. Women were followed for 2 years and assessed. RESULTS: In 77 patients who were followed for 2 years, 28 had conceived but 49 did not. The peripheral NK activity of the group that became pregnant (mean +/- S.D.; 34.5 +/- 13.8%) was significantly lower than that of non-conception group (42.3 +/- 13.3%, P = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: Our finding suggests that elevated peripheral NK activity in patients with unexplained infertility is a risk factor for attaining pregnancy success.     

Time to pregnancy: results of the German prospective study and impact on the management of infertility

BACKGROUND: The likelihood of spontaneous conception in subsequent cycles is important for a balanced management of infertility. Previous studies on time to pregnancy are mostly retrospective and biased because of exclusion of truly infertile couples. The study aim was to present a non-parametric estimation of cumulative probabilities of conception (CPC) in natural family planning (NFP) users illustrating an ideal of human fertility potential. METHODS: A total of 346 women was observed who used NFP methods to conceive from their first cycle onwards. The couples practising NFP make optimal use of their fertility potential by timed intercourse. The CPC were estimated for the total group and for couples who finally conceived by calculating Kaplan-Meier survival rates. RESULTS: A total of 310 pregnancies occurred among the 346 women; the remaining 36 women (10.4%) did not conceive. Estimated CPC for the total group (n = 340 women) at one, three, six and 12 cycle(s) were 38, 68, 81 and 92% respectively. For those who finally conceived (truly fertile couples, n = 304 women), the respective pregnancy rates were 42, 75, 88 and 98% respectively. Although the numbers of couples in both groups were similar, the impact of age on time to conception, as judged by the Wilcoxon test, was less in the truly fertile than in the total group. CONCLUSIONS: Most couples conceive within six cycles with timed intercourse. Thereafter, every second couple is probably either subfertile or infertile. CPC decline with age because heterogeneity in fecundity increases. In the subgroup of truly fertile couples, an age-dependent decline in CPC is statistically less obvious because of high homogeneity, even with advancing age.     

The sperm chromatin structure assay as a diagnostic tool in the human fertility clinic

BACKGROUND: Sperm DNA integrity has been shown to be necessary for achieving and sustaining embryo development. The objective was to evaluate the sperm chromatin structure assay (SCSA) as a diagnostic tool in clinical practice for intrauterine insemination (IUI), in vitro fertilization (IVF) and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatments. METHODS: A total of 385 semen samples from 234 couples were frozen for SCSA, and smears were prepared for morphology: 48 IUI, 139 IVF and 47 ICSI. The main SCSA variables were DNA fragmentation index (DFI), standard deviation of DFI (SD-DFI) and high DNA stainability (HDS), and the reproductive outcomes were biochemical pregnancy (BP), clinical pregnancy (CP) and implantation ratio (IR). RESULTS: The results showed no significant difference in the fertility variables BP, CP and IR when <27% DFI was used between the IVF and ICSI groups. A low number of patients received IUI with low success rate, and statistical analysis was therefore not performed. Ongoing pregnancy was achieved for both IVF and ICSI couples with DFI levels >27%, and six couples in ICSI treatment achieved CP full-term. DFI >27% had a high prognostic power for predicting no CP for IVF patients, with a specificity of 97%. Couples diagnosed with male infertility had a significantly higher level of DFI compared to couples with idiopathic fertility. Sperm head morphology showed low but significant correlations with the SCSA variables. CONCLUSION: SCSA is a useful tool in andrological diagnosis and contributes with a prognosis for the fertility outcome of conventional IVF. Although full-term pregnancy can be achieved with assisted reproductive techniques with a DFI >27%, the probability of a successful pregnancy may be reduced.     

Infertility and preterm delivery, birthweight, and Caesarean section: a study within the Danish National Birth Cohort

BACKGROUND: More than 10% of babies are born to couples taking >1 year to conceive (a common definition of infertility). Some evidence indicates that such pregnancies are at increased risk of preterm delivery and other adverse birth outcomes, but the problem has rarely been addressed in large, longitudinal studies enrolling couples irrespective of infertility treatment. METHODS: We used data from the Danish National Birth Cohort: 55 906 singleton live births from women who reported their waiting time to pregnancy (TTP) and other covariates in an interview during the 2nd trimester of pregnancy. RESULTS: A TTP >1 year was associated with an increased risk of all outcomes studied, including preterm birth [odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were 1.5 (1.2, 1.8) among primiparas and 1.9 (1.5, 2.4) among multiparas]. Odds ratios for preterm remained elevated after adjustment for covariates. Among couples with a TTP >1 year, infertility treatment was associated with added risk only among multiparas. CONCLUSION: Infertile women are at higher risk of adverse birth outcomes even if they conceive without treatment. With >10% of babies born to infertile couples, it is important to consider this group as potentially high risk when providing prenatal care.     

Lifetime prevalence of infertility and infertility treatment in the UK: results from a population-based survey of reproduction

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of infertility and the use of infertility treatment among women aged 40-55 years. METHODS: Population-based postal questionnaire survey of UK women. Over 60,000 women randomly sampled from the 2001 electoral roll were sent a questionnaire, and those aged 55 years and under who had ever been pregnant or tried to achieve a pregnancy (n = 6584) were asked to provide a reproductive history. RESULTS: Overall, 2.4% of women aged 40-55 years had unresolved infertility with no pregnancies, and a further 1.9% had been pregnant but not achieved a live birth. The prevalence of unresolved fertility did not differ among birth cohorts. Sixteen percent of women reported ever consulting a doctor because of infertility and 8% reported receiving treatment to conceive. Across the whole sample, 4.2% of women reported that they had achieved at least one pregnancy as a result of treatment. Compared with earlier birth cohorts, women born later were more likely to report consultations (18% versus 13%) and treatment (9% versus 6%) for infertility, and pregnancies as a result of infertility treatment (6.7% versus 2.7%). Among those who reported medical consultations, women born more recently first consulted at a later age compared with those born earlier. CONCLUSIONS: Although both the number of women seeking medical care for infertility and the proportion reporting pregnancies as a result of infertility treatment has increased, there is no evidence to support an overall increase in unresolved infertility over the past 15 years. The vast majority of women aged 40-55 who reported difficulties conceiving did have a child, or children, at some point in their lives.     

A new rapid and effective method for treatment of unexplained infertility

BACKGROUND: Artificial insemination (intrauterine insemination by husbandor artificial insemination by husband) is often tried as firsttreatment for couples with unexplained infertility. Pertubationhas previously proved to increase the chance of achieving pregnancyfor these couples. The effect of pertubation on fertility canbe mechanical as well as anti-inflammatory by using a substancethat inhibits phagocytosis of the spermatozoa. The objectiveof the study was to investigate the effect on pregnancy rateof pre-ovulatory pertubation with low-dose lignocaine duringclomiphene citrate and insemination cycles for couples withunexplained infertility. METHODS: In a prospective, open study, the patients were randomized,the day before ovulation, during a clomiphene citrate stimulatedcycle to either pertubation with low-dose local anaestheticor no pertubation before insemination. RESULTS: A total of 130 cycles were studied, 67 of which were randomizedto pre-ovulatory pertubation and 63 to no pertubation treatment.There were 14.9% (n = 10) clinical pregnancies in the pertubatedgroup compared with 3.2% (n = 2) in the group without pre-ovulatorypertubation (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The pertubation treatment significantly enhanced the clinicalpregnancy rate and was well tolerated. No complications werenoted. The combined treatment of clomiphene citrate, pertubationand insemination can be used as a cost-effective, first-linetreatment for couples with unexplained infertility.     

Pregnancy after cytoplasmic transfer in a couple suffering from idiopathic infertility: case report.

Couples suffering from idiopathic infertility are among the most difficult to treat in IVF cycles due to the unknown cause of failure to reproduce. This can lead to years of unsuccessful attempts to conceive and often the abandonment of treatment. In some couples, the only observable problem is the development of poor quality embryos. In this case report, we describe the successful use of cytoplasmic donation in a couple where the high level of embryo fragmentation and poor embryo development was thought to be the unique cause of failure to conceive after intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). We noted a strong reduction in embryo fragmentation and a consequent increase in embryo quality after the treatment. Transfer of four of the embryos receiving donor cytoplasm led to a pregnancy with two gestational sacs and the birth of healthy twins.     

The value of menotrophin treatment for unexplained infertility prior to an in-vitro fertilization attempt

This work was undertaken in order to evaluate retrospectively the relative efficacy of ovulation induction by menotrophins and that of in-vitro fertilization and embryo transfer (IVF-ET) in the treatment of unexplained infertility. These two treatments were compared between two groups of patients: 87 couples undergoing 446 cycles of ovulation induction by menotrophins (group A) and 72 couples undergoing 108 cycles of IVF-ET (group B). A total of 30 and 20 pregnancies were achieved in groups A and B for a rate of 34 and 28% per patient, respectively. A similar cumulative pregnancy rate (CPR) was achieved for three cycles of ovulation induction (23%) and one cycle of IVF-ET (22%). The cumulative live birth rate (CLBR) in group A was 22% after three cycles and exceeded that of one IVF-ET cycle (17%). It is concluded that menotrophin treatment in unexplained infertility is highly beneficial and should precede an IVF attempt.     

Differences in time to natural conception between women with unexplained infertility and infertile women with minor endometriosis

BACKGROUND: Opinion remains divided as to whether finding endometriotic lesions in the absence of adhesions has an adverse effect on the likelihood of conception. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 192 fully investigated infertile couples, followed up for up to 3 years following laparoscopy. Women studied were ovulating, <40 old years and their partners had normal sperm parameters. All 117 women with unexplained infertility and 75 with minimal/mild endometriosis without adhesive disease were managed conservatively. RESULTS: Women with endometriosis were found to have a lower probability of pregnancy compared with women with unexplained infertility (36% versus 55%; P<0.05). Other factors adversely associated with pregnancy were primary infertility, smoking and longer duration (>3 years) of infertility. However, the effects of duration of infertility and primary infertility were not observed to be statistically significant for women with endometriosis. CONCLUSIONS: The findings, although undertaken in a select population undergoing laparoscopy, suggest the likelihood of pregnancy is reduced in infertile women with minimal/mild endometriosis compared with those infertile women with a normal pelvis. Duration of infertility and a previous history of pregnancy are important in predicting the likelihood of pregnancy in women with no obvious cause for their infertility (unexplained), whilst the relationship may be more complex in women with minor endometriosis     

Pregnancy is predictable: a large-scale prospective external validation of the prediction of spontaneous pregnancy in subfertile couples

BACKGROUND: Prediction models for spontaneous pregnancy may be useful tools to select subfertile couples that have good fertility prospects and should therefore be counselled for expectant management. We assessed the accuracy of a recently published prediction model for spontaneous pregnancy in a large prospective validation study. METHODS: In 38 centres, we studied a consecutive cohort of subfertile couples, referred for an infertility work-up. Patients had a regular menstrual cycle, patent tubes and a total motile sperm count (TMC) >3 x 10(6). After the infertility work-up had been completed, we used a prediction model to calculate the chance of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy (www.freya.nl/probability.php). The primary end-point was time until the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy within 1 year. The performance of the pregnancy prediction model was assessed with calibration, which is the comparison of predicted and observed ongoing pregnancy rates for groups of patients and discrimination. RESULTS: We included 3021 couples of whom 543 (18%) had a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy, 57 (2%) a non-successful pregnancy, 1316 (44%) started treatment, 825 (27%) neither started treatment nor became pregnant and 280 (9%) were lost to follow-up. Calibration of the prediction model was almost perfect. In the 977 couples (32%) with a calculated probability between 30 and 40%, the observed cumulative pregnancy rate at 12 months was 30%, and in 611 couples (20%) with a probability of >or=40%, this was 46%. The discriminative capacity was similar to the one in which the model was developed (c-statistic 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: As the chance of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy among subfertile couples can be accurately calculated, this prediction model can be used as an essential tool for clinical decision-making and in counselling patients. The use of the prediction model may help to prevent unnecessary treatment.