Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Ghana: Examining impacts from 2012 to 2031

BackgroundDiarrhea causes about 10% of all deaths in children under five years globally, with rotavirus causing about 40% of all diarrhea deaths. Ghana introduced rotavirus vaccination as part of routine immunization in 2012 and it has been shown to be effective in reducing disease burden in children under five years. Ghana’s transition from low to lower-middle income status in 2010 implies fewer resources from Gavi as well as other major global financing mechanisms. Ghana will soon bear the full cost of vaccines. The aim of this study was to estimate the health impact, costs and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Ghana from introduction and beyond the Gavi transition.MethodsThe TRIVAC model is used to estimate costs and effects of rotavirus vaccination from 2012 through 2031. Model inputs include demographics, disease burden, health system structure, health care utilization and costs as well as vaccine cost, coverage, and efficacy. Model inputs came from local data, the international literature and expert consultation. Costs were examined from the health system and societal perspectives.ResultsThe results show that continued rotavirus vaccination could avert more than 2.2 million cases and 8900 deaths while saving US$6 to US$9 million in costs over a 20-year period. The net cost of vaccination program is approximately US$60 million over the same period. The societal cost per DALY averted is US$238 to US$332 with cost per case averted ranging from US$27 to US$38. The cost per death averted is approximately US$7000.ConclusionThe analysis shows that continued rotavirus vaccination will be highly cost-effective, even for the period during which Ghana will assume responsibility for purchasing vaccines after transition from Gavi support.     

Impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh

IntroductionDiarrheal disease is a leading cause of child mortality globally, and rotavirus is responsible for more than a third of those deaths. Despite substantial decreases, the number of rotavirus deaths in children under five was 215,000 per year in 2013. Of these deaths, approximately 41% occurred in Asia and 3% of those in Bangladesh. While Bangladesh has yet to introduce rotavirus vaccination, the country applied for Gavi support and plans to introduce it in 2018. This analysis evaluates the impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh and provides estimates of the costs of the vaccination program to help inform decision-makers and international partners.MethodsThis analysis used Pan American Health Organization’s TRIVAC model (version 2.0) to examine nationwide introduction of two-dose rotavirus vaccination in 2017, compared to no vaccination. Three mortality scenarios (low, high, and midpoint) were assessed. Benefits and costs were examined from the societal perspective over ten successive birth cohorts with a 3% discount rate. Model inputs were locally acquired and complemented by internationally validated estimates.ResultsOver ten years, rotavirus vaccination would prevent 4000 deaths, nearly 500,000 hospitalizations and 3 million outpatient visits in the base scenario. With a Gavi subsidy, cost/disability adjusted life year (DALY) ratios ranged from $58/DALY to $142/DALY averted. Without a Gavi subsidy and a vaccine price of $2.19 per dose, cost/DALY ratios ranged from $615/DALY to $1514/DALY averted.ConclusionThe discounted cost per DALY averted was less than the GDP per capita for nearly all scenarios considered, indicating that a routine rotavirus vaccination program is highly likely to be cost-effective. Even in a low mortality setting with no Gavi subsidy, rotavirus vaccination would be cost-effective. These estimates exclude the herd immunity benefits of vaccination, so represent a conservative estimate of the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh.     

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in the Philippines: A modeling study

IntroductionRotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) remains a leading cause of hospitalization and death in children under five years of age in the Philippines. Rotavirus (RV) vaccination was introduced into the national immunization program (NIP) in 2012 but has since been limited to one region due to cost considerations and conflicting local cost-effectiveness estimates. Updated estimates of the cost-effectiveness of RV vaccination are required to inform prioritization of national immunization activities.MethodsWe calculated the potential costs and benefits of rotavirus vaccination over a 10-year-period (2021–2031) from a government and societal perspective, comparing four alternative rotavirus vaccines: Rotavac, Rotasiil, Rotarix and Rotateq. For each vaccine, a proportionate outcomes model was used to calculate the expected number of disease events, DALYs, vaccination program costs, and healthcare costs, with and without vaccination. The primary outcome measure was the cost per DALY averted. Assuming each product would generate similar benefits, the dominant (lowest cost) product was identified. We then calculated the cost-effectiveness (US$ per Disability Adjusted Life Year [DALY] averted) of the least costly product and compared it to willingness-to-pay thresholds of 0.5 and 1 times the national GDP per capita ($3,485), and ran deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ResultsIntroducing any of the four rotavirus vaccines would avert around 40% of RVGE visits, hospitalizations, and deaths over the period 2021–2031. Over the same ten-year period, the incremental cost of vaccination from a government perspective was estimated to be around $104, $105, $220, and $277 million for Rotavac, Rotasiil, Rotarix and Rotateq, respectively. The equivalent cost from a societal perspective was $58, $60, $178 and $231 million. The cost-effectiveness of the least costly product (Rotavac) was $1,148 ($830–$1682) from a government perspective and $646 ($233–1277) from a societal perspective. All other products offered similar benefits but at a higher cost. There is a >99% probability that Rotavac would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold set at 0.5 times the national GDP per capita.ConclusionBoth Rotavac and Rotasiil are likely to be cost-effective options in the Philippines, but it is not possible to say definitively which product should be preferred. Rotarix and Rotateq are expected to offer similar benefits at more cost, so would need to be priced far more competitively to be considered for introduction.     

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Mozambique

IntroductionRotavirus is one of the most common cause of severe gastroenteritis in children, with the largest mortality burden in low- and middle-income countries. To prevent rotavirus gastroenteritis, Mozambique introduced ROTARIX® vaccine in 2015, however, its cost-effectiveness has never been established in the country. In 2018, additional vaccines became available globally. This study estimates the cost-effectiveness of the recently introduced ROTARIX in Mozambique and compares the cost-effectiveness of ROTARIX®, ROTAVAC®, and ROTASIIL® to inform future use.MethodsWe used a decision-support model to calculate the potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination with ROTARIX compared to no vaccination over a five-year period (2016–2020) and to compare the cost-effectiveness of ROTARIX, ROTAVAC, and ROTASIIL to no vaccination and to each other over a ten-year period (2021–2030). The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted from a government perspective. We assessed uncertainty through sensitivity analyses.ResultsFrom 2016 to 2020, we estimate the vaccine program with ROTARIX cost US$12.3 million, prevented 4,628 deaths, and averted US$3.1 million in healthcare costs. The cost per DALY averted was US$70. From 2021 to 2030, we estimate all three vaccines could prevent 9,000 deaths and avert US$7.8 million in healthcare costs. With Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (Gavi) support, ROTARIX would have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$31 million) and 98 % probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 0.5x GDP per capita. Without Gavi support, ROTASIIL would have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$75.8 million) and 30 % probability of being cost-effective at the same threshold.ConclusionROTARIX vaccination had a substantial public health impact in Mozambique between 2016 and 2020. ROTARIX is currently estimated to be the most cost-effective product, but the choice of vaccine should be re-evaluated as more evidence emerges on the price, incremental delivery cost, wastage, and impact associated with each of the different rotavirus vaccines.     

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in children under five years of age in 195 countries: A meta-regression analysis

BackgroundRotavirus caused an estimated 151,714 deaths from diarrhea among children under 5 in 2019. To reduce mortality, countries are considering adding rotavirus vaccination to their routine immunization program. Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) to inform these decisions are not available in every setting, and where they are, results are sensitive to modeling assumptions, especially about vaccine efficacy. We used advances in meta-regression methods and estimates of vaccine efficacy by location to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for rotavirus vaccination in 195 countries.MethodsBeginning with Tufts University CEA and Global Health CEA registries we used 515 ICERs from 68 articles published through 2017, extracted 938 additional one-way sensitivity analyses, and excluded 33 ICERs for a sample of 1,418. We used a five-stage, mixed-effects, Bayesian metaregression framework to predict ICERs, and logistic regression model to predict the probability that the vaccine was cost-saving. For both models, covariates were vaccine characteristics including efficacy, study methods, and country-specific rotavirus disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. All results are reported in 2017 United States dollars.ResultsVaccine efficacy, vaccine cost, GDP per capita and rotavirus DALYs were important drivers of variability in ICERs. Globally, the median ICER was $2,289 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): $147–$38,993) and ranged from $85 per DALY averted (95% UI: $13–$302) in Central African Republic to $70,599 per DALY averted (95% UI: $11,030–$263,858) in the United States. Among countries eligible for support from Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, the mean ICER was $255 per DALY averted (95% UI: $39–$918), and among countries eligible for the PAHO revolving fund, the mean ICER was $2,464 per DALY averted (95% UI: $382–$3,118).ConclusionOur findings incorporate recent evidence that vaccine efficacy differs across locations, and support expansion of rotavirus vaccination programs, particularly in countries eligible for support from Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance.     

Projected impact,cost-effectiveness,and budget implications of rotavirus vaccination in Mongolia

Introduction

Rotavirus disease in Mongolia is estimated to cause more than 50 deaths yearly and many more cases and hospitalizations. Mongolia must self-finance new vaccines and does not automatically access Gavi prices for vaccines. Given the country’s limited resources for health, it is critical to assess potential new vaccine programs. This evaluation estimates the impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget implications associated with a nationwide rotavirus vaccine introduction targeting infants as part of the national immunization program in Mongolia, in order to inform decision-making around introduction.

Potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Afghanistan

IntroductionHuman papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has not been introduced in many countries in South-Central Asia, including Afghanistan, despite the sub-region having the highest incidence rate of cervical cancer in Asia. This study estimates the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Afghanistan to inform national decision-making.MethodAn Excel-based static cohort model was used to estimate the lifetime costs and health outcomes of vaccinating a single cohort of 9-year-old girls in the year 2018 with the bivalent HPV vaccine, compared to no vaccination. We also explored a scenario with a catch-up campaign for girls aged 10–14 years. Input parameters were based on local sources, published literature, or assumptions when no data was available. The primary outcome measure was the discounted cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, evaluated from both government and societal perspectives.ResultsVaccinating a single cohort of 9-year-old girls against HPV in Afghanistan could avert 1718 cervical cancer cases, 125 hospitalizations, and 1612 deaths over the lifetime of the cohort. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$426 per DALY averted from the government perspective and US$400 per DALY averted from the societal perspective. The estimated annual cost of the HPV vaccination program (US$3,343,311) represents approximately 3.53% of the country′s total immunization budget for 2018 or 0.13% of total health expenditures.ConclusionIn Afghanistan, HPV vaccine introduction targeting a single cohort is potentially cost-effective (0.7 times the GDP per capita of $586) from both the government and societal perspective with additional health benefits generated by a catch-up campaign, depending on the government′s willingness to pay for the projected health outcomes.     

中国婴幼儿普遍接种轮状病毒疫苗的成本效果分析

目的 对中国现阶段是否应将婴幼儿接种轮状病毒疫苗纳入免疫规划进行经济学评价,并探讨其成本效果。方法 通过构建决策树Markov模型,模拟2012年中国出生的新生儿分别在不接种轮状病毒疫苗及接种Rotarix疫苗或Rotateq疫苗3种方案下的成本和健康结局,基于各方案间的增量成本效果比(ICER)与中国2012年人均国内生产总值(GDP)的比较确定最优方案。结果 与不接种方案相比,Rotarix疫苗和Rotateq疫苗接种方案可分别减少发生238万和253万例轮状病毒腹泻,避免12.6万和13.3万个伤残调整寿命年的损失,ICER分别为3 760元和7 578元,均小于我国2012年人均GDP(38 420元);Rotateq疫苗相对于Rotarix疫苗,ICER为81 068元,介于1与3倍人均GDP之间。结论 在中国婴幼儿中开展轮状病毒疫苗普遍接种具有高的成本效果,应考虑将其纳入计划免疫;考虑到疫苗免疫费用、大规模组织实施的难度等因素,在现阶段更适宜推广接种Rotarix疫苗。     

Economic Impact of a Rotavirus Vaccine in Brazil

The study was done to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a national rotavirus vaccination programme in Brazilian children from the healthcare system perspective. A hypothetical annual birth-cohort was followed for a five-year period. Published and national administrative data were incorporated into a model to quantify the consequences of vaccination versus no vaccination. Main outcome measures included the reduction in disease burden, lives saved, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. A rotavirus vaccination programme in Brazil would prevent an estimated 1,804 deaths associated with gastroenteritis due to rotavirus, 91,127 hospitalizations, and 550,198 outpatient visits. Vaccination is likely to reduce 76% of the overall healthcare burden of rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis in Brazil. At a vaccine price of US$ 7-8 per dose, the cost-effectiveness ratio would be US$ 643 per DALY averted. Rotavirus vaccination can reduce the burden of gastroenteritis due to rotavirus at a reasonable cost-effectiveness ratio.Key words: Costs and cost analysis, Diarrhoea, Infantile, Gastroenteritis, Morbidity, Rotavirus, Rotavirus vaccines, Vaccination, Brazil     

Effects of geographic and economic heterogeneity on rotavirus diarrhea burden and vaccination impact and cost-effectiveness in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic

Rotavirus enteritis is responsible for nearly 200,000 child deaths worldwide in 2015. Globally, many low- and middle-income countries have introduced rotavirus vaccine, resulting in documented reductions in hospitalizations and child mortality. We examined the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of introducing rotavirus vaccination in Lao People’s Democratic Republic using an Excel-based spreadsheet model. We estimated mortality risk factors, patterns of care seeking, and vaccination access to predict outcomes for regional, provincial, and socioeconomic subpopulations for one birth cohort through their first five years of life and life course in Disability-Adjusted Life Years estimates. Socioeconomic status was defined by categorizing households into regional wealth quintiles based on a national asset index. We modeled a two-dose ROTARIX vaccine under current Gavi pricing and efficacy estimates from Bangladesh and Vietnam. DPT1 and DPT2 coverages were used to estimate rotavirus vaccination coverage. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty on model parameters on predicted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), including scenarios of increases in vaccination coverage. Rotavirus vaccination would prevent 143 child deaths/year, or 28% of annual rotavirus burden. The estimated national level ICER for rotavirus vaccination was $140/DALY, with regional socioeconomic subpopulation estimates ranging from $72/DALY for the poorest in the Central region to $353/DALY for the richest in the North region, indicating high cost-effectiveness. Within regions, ICERs are most favorable for children in the poorer and poorest quintiles. However, the full benefits of rotavirus vaccination will only be realized by reducing disparities in vaccination coverage, access to treatment, and environmental health. Improving vaccination coverage to equitable levels alone would prevent 87 additional child deaths per year.     

Economic analysis for evidence-based policy-making on a national immunization program: a case of rotavirus vaccine in Thailand

Severe diarrhea caused by rotavirus is a health problem worldwide, including Thailand. The World Health Organization has recommended incorporating rotavirus vaccination into national immunization programs. This policy has been implemented in several countries, but not in Thailand where the mortality rate is not high. This leads to the question of whether it would be cost-effective to implement such a policy. The Thai National Vaccine Committee, through the Immunization Practice Subcommittee, has conducted an economic analysis. Their study aimed to estimate the costs of rotavirus diarrhea and of a rotavirus vaccination program, and the cost-effectiveness of such a program including budget impact analysis. The study was designed as an economic evaluation, employing modeling technique in both provider and societal perspectives. A birth cohort of Thai children in 2009 was used in the analysis, with a 5-year time horizon. Costs were composed of cost of the illness and the vaccination program. Outcomes were measured in the form of lives saved and DALYs averted. Both costs and outcomes were discounted at 3%. The study found the discounted number of deaths to be 7.02 and 20.52 for vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts, respectively (13.5 deaths averted). Discounted DALYs were 263.33 and 826.57 for vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts, respectively (563.24 DALYs averted). Costs of rotavirus diarrhea in a societal perspective were US$6.6 million and US$21.0 million for vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts, respectively. At base case, the costs per additional death averted were US$5.1 million and US$5.7 for 2-dose and 3-dose vaccines, respectively, in a societal perspective. Costs per additional DALYs averted were US$128,063 and US$142,144, respectively. In a societal perspective, with a cost-effectiveness threshold at 1 GDP per capita per DALYs averted, vaccine prices per dose were US$4.98 and US$3.32 for 2-dose and 3-dose vaccines, respectively; in a provider perspective, they were US$2.90 and US$1.93. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were included. The budget required for vaccine purchase was calculated for all scenarios.     

Cost-effectiveness of the introduction of two-dose bi-valent (Cervarix) and quadrivalent (Gardasil) HPV vaccination for adolescent girls in Bangladesh

BackgroundCervical cancer is one of the most prevalent cancers in women caused by the human papillomavirus (HPV) that leads to a substantial disease burden for health systems. Prevention through vaccination can significantly reduce the prevalence of cervical cancer. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential health and economic impacts of introducing two-dose bivalent (Cervarix) and quadrivalent (Gardasil) HPV vaccines in Bangladesh.MethodsThe study uses the Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) model to assess the cost-effectiveness of introducing HPV vaccination. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted using the cost-effectiveness threshold (CET). The analyses were done from a health system perspective in terms of vaccine delivery routes.ResultsIntroduction of bi-valent HPV vaccination was found highly cost-effective (ICER = US$488/DALY) at Gavi (The Vaccine Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations) negotiated prices. The value of ICERs were US$710, US$356 and US$397 per DALY averted for school-based, health facility-based, and outreach-based programs, respectively, which is consistent with the CET range (US$67 to US$854). However, bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines at listed prices were not found cost-effective, with ICERs of US$1405 and US$3250 per DALY averted, respectively, that exceeds the CETs values.ConclusionsIntroducing a two-dose bi-valent HPV vaccination program is cost-effective in Bangladesh at Gavi negotiated prices. Vaccine price is the dominating parameter for the cost-effectiveness of bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines. Both vaccines are not cost-effective at listed prices in Bangladesh. The evaluation highlights that introducing the two-dose bivalent HPV vaccine at Gavi negotiated prices into a national immunization program in Bangladesh is economically viable to reduce the burden of cervical cancer.     

Economic evaluation of rotavirus vaccination in children of Bhutan

BackgroundDiarrhoea remains one of the top ten causes of under-five child morbidity in Bhutan, and rotavirus is a significant cause of child diarrhoeal hospitalisations. This study sought to determine the health outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and budget and human resource implications of introducing rotavirus vaccines in the routine immunisation program to inform Bhutan’s decision-making process.MethodsWe used UNIVAC model (version 1.3.41) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccination programme compared with no vaccination from a government perspective. We also projected the impact of rotavirus vaccination on human resources and budget. A cost-effectiveness threshold was determined to be 0.5 times the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (equivalent to the United States dollar ($) 1,537) per Disability-Adjusted Life-Year (DALY) averted. One-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and threshold analyses were performed to capture parameter uncertainties.ResultsIn Bhutan, a rotavirus vaccination programme over 10 years (2020 to 2029) can avert between 104 and 115 DALYs, at an incremental cost ranging from $322,000 to $1,332,000. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) across four vaccination programmes compared to no vaccination scenario were $9,267, $11,606, $3,201, and $2,803 per DALY averted for ROTARIX, RotaTeq, ROTAVAC, and ROTASIIL, respectively. The net five-year budget impact of introducing a rotavirus vaccination programme ranged from $0.20 to $0.81 million. The rotavirus vaccination programme has a potential to reduce the workload of health care workers such as paediatricians, nurses, dieticians, and pharmacists; however, the programme would require an additional 1.93–2.88 full-time equivalent of health assistants.ConclusionAt the current cost-effectiveness threshold, routine rotavirus vaccination in Bhutan is unlikely to be cost-effective with any of the currently available vaccines. However, routine vaccination with ROTASIIL was under the cost-effectiveness threshold of one times the GDP per capita ($3,074). ROTASIIL and ROTAVAC would provide the best value for money in Bhutan.     

Impact of rotavirus vaccines in Sub-Saharan African countries

By the end of 2017, 32 (68%) of 47 countries in the World Health Organization’s African Region had introduced rotavirus vaccine into their national immunization programs, including 27 countries that received financial support from the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Several early introducing African countries previously evaluated the impact, vaccine effectiveness, and/or cost effectiveness of their routine rotavirus vaccination programs and found that rotavirus vaccine was effective and resulted in substantial declines in hospitalizations due to rotavirus. This Special Issue of Vaccine provides additional rotavirus vaccine effectiveness and impact data from a broader range of African countries, describes the longer term impact and potential indirect benefits of rotavirus vaccination programs, describes trends in circulating genotypes in the pre- and post-vaccine introduction eras, and evaluates the cost-effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccination program in a post-introduction setting. As countries begin transitioning from Gavi support, the findings of these studies provide evidence of the impact and effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination programs under conditions of routine use.     

Cost-effectiveness of childhood rotavirus vaccination in Taiwan

Objective

Rotavirus is the most common cause of severe diarrhea in children. Two rotavirus vaccines (RotaTeq and Rotarix) have been licensed in Taiwan. We have investigated whether routine infant immunization with either vaccine could be cost-effective in Taiwan.

Methods

We modeled specific disease outcomes including hospitalization, emergency department visits, hospital outpatient visits, physician office visits, and death. Cost-effectiveness was analyzed from the perspectives of the health care system and society. A decision tree was used to estimate the disease burden and costs based on data from published and unpublished sources.

Results

A routine rotavirus immunization program would prevent 146,470 (Rotarix) or 149,937 (RotaTeq) cases of rotavirus diarrhea per year, and would prevent 21,106 (Rotarix) and 23,057 (RotaTeq) serious cases (hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and death). At US$80 per dose for the Rotarix vaccine, the program would cost US$32.7 million, provided an increasing cost offset of US$19.8 million to the health care system with $135 per case averted. Threshold analysis identified a break-even price per dose of US$27 from the health care system perspective and US$41 from a societal perspective. At US$60.0 per dose of RotaTeq vaccine, the program would cost US$35.4 million and provide an increasing cost offset of US$22.5 million to the health care system, or US$150 per case averted. Threshold analysis identified a break-even price per dose of US$20.0 from the health care system perspective and $29 from the societal perspective. Greater costs of hospitalization and lower vaccine price could increase cost-effectiveness.

Conclusions

Despite a higher burden of serious rotavirus disease than estimated previously, routine rotavirus vaccination would unlikely be cost-saving in Taiwan at present unless the price fell to US$41 (Rotarix) or US$29 (RotaTeq) per dose from societal perspective, respectively. Nonetheless, rotavirus immunization could reduce the substantial burden of short-term morbidity due to rotavirus.     

Impact,cost-effectiveness,and budget implications of HPV vaccination in Kenya: A modelling study

BackgroundSub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of cervical cancer cases and deaths worldwide. Kenya introduced a quadrivalent HPV vaccine (GARDASIL, hereafter referred to as GARDASIL-4) for ten-year-old girls in late 2019 with donor support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. As Kenya may soon graduate from Gavi support, it is important to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness and budget impact of the current HPV vaccine, and potential alternatives.MethodsWe used a proportionate outcomes static cohort model to evaluate the annual budget impact and lifetime cost-effectiveness of vaccinating ten-year-old girls over the period 2020–2029. We included a catch-up campaign for girls aged 11–14 years in 2020. We estimated cervical cancer cases, deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthcare costs (government and societal perspective) expected to occur with and without vaccination over the lifetimes of each cohort of vaccinated girls. For each of the four products available globally (CECOLIN©, CERVARIX©, GARDASIL-4©, and GARDASIL-9 ©), we estimated the cost (2021 US$) per DALY averted compared to no vaccine and to each other. Model inputs were obtained from published sources, as well as local stakeholders.ResultsWe estimated 320,000 cases and 225,000 deaths attributed to cervical cancer over the lifetimes of the 14 evaluated birth cohorts. HPV vaccination could reduce this burden by 42–60 %. Without cross-protection, CECOLIN had the lowest net cost and most attractive cost-effectiveness. With cross-protection, CERVARIX was the most cost-effective. Under either scenario the most cost-effective vaccine had a 100 % probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$ 100 (5 % of Kenya’s national gross domestic product per capita) compared to no vaccination. Should Kenya reach its target of 90 % coverage and graduate from Gavi support, the undiscounted annual vaccine program cost could exceed US$ 10 million per year. For all three vaccines currently supported by Gavi, a single-dose strategy would be cost-saving compared to no vaccination.ConclusionHPV vaccination for girls is highly cost-effective in Kenya. Compared to GARDASIL-4, alternative products could provide similar or greater health benefits at lower net costs. Substantial government funding will be required to reach and sustain coverage targets as Kenya graduates from Gavi support. A single dose strategy is likely to have similar benefits for less cost.     

Health economics of rotavirus immunization in Vietnam: potentials for favorable cost-effectiveness in developing countries

Introduction

Rotavirus is the most common cause of severe diarrhoea worldwide. Vietnam is situated in the region of high rotavirus infection incidence and eligible for financial support to introduce rotavirus vaccines into the Expanded Program of Immunization (EPI) from the GAVI. This study was designed to assess the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus immunization in Vietnam, explicitly the use of Rotateq^® and to assess the affordability of implementing universal rotavirus immunization based on GAVI-subsidized vaccine price in the context of Vietnamese healthcare system for the next 5 years.

Methodology

An age-structured cohort model was developed for the 2009 birth cohort in Vietnam. Two strategies were compared: one being the current situation without vaccination, and the other being mass universal rotavirus vaccination. The time horizon of the model was 5 years with time cycles of 1 month for children less than 1 year of age and annual analysis thereafter. Outcomes included mild, moderate, severe cases and death. Multiple outcomes per rotavirus infection are possible in the model. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine the acceptability and affordability of the rotavirus vaccination. All costs were expressed in 2009 US$.

Results

Rotavirus vaccination would not completely protect young children against rotavirus infection due to partial nature of vaccine immunity, however, would effectively reduce severe cases of rotavirus by roughly 55% during the first 5 years of life. Under GAVI-subsidized vaccine price (US$ 0.3/dose), the vaccine cost would amount to US$ 5.5 million per annum for 3-dose of the Rotateq^® vaccine. In the base-case, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) was US$ 665 from the health system perspective, much lower than per-capita GDP of ∼US$ 1150 in 2009. Affordability results showed that at the GAVI-subsidized vaccine price, rotavirus vaccination could be affordable for Vietnamese health system.

Conclusion

Rotavirus vaccination in Vietnam would be a cost-effective health intervention. Vaccination only becomes affordable if the country receives GAVI's financial support due to the current high market vaccine price. Given the high mortality rate of under-five-year children, the results showed that rotavirus immunization is the “best hope” for prevention of rotavirus-related diarrhoeal disease in Vietnam. In the next five years, Vietnam is definitely in debt to financial support from international organizations in implementing rotavirus immunization. It is recommended that new rotavirus vaccine candidates be developed at cheaper price to speed up the introduction of rotavirus immunization in the developing world in general.     

Re-evaluating the cost and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh,Ghana, and Malawi: A comparison of three rotavirus vaccines

IntroductionDiarrhea is a leading cause of mortality worldwide and rotavirus accounts for many of these deaths. As of August 2018, 96 countries have introduced rotavirus vaccines into their immunization programs. Two rotavirus vaccines, Rotarix® and RotaTeq®, have been WHO-prequalified since 2009, with Rotarix® being the preferred product of most Gavi-supported countries. ROTAVAC® and ROTASIIL® have both been prequalified recently.Materials and methodsWe reevaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh, Ghana, and Malawi and compared Rotarix®, ROTAVAC®, and ROTASIIL® in each country. For consistency with previously published analyses in these countries, we used the same Excel-based cohort model and much of the same data as the original analyses. We varied the expected price (with and without Gavi subsidy), wastage, and incremental health system costs associated with each vaccine. We assumed the same efficacy and waning assumptions following administration of two or three doses for the respective product.ResultsThe discounted cost per DALY averted compared to no vaccination ranged from 0.3 to 1.3 times GNI per capita for each vaccine. With the Gavi subsidy, the average cost-effectiveness ratios were below 0.3 times GNI per capita in all three countries. Though critical empirical cost data are not yet available, Rotarix® is the least costly and most cost-effective product in the countries examined in this modelling study. However, small decreases in the incremental health system cost for other products could result in cost and cost-effectiveness outcomes that match or surpass those of Rotarix®.ConclusionCountries may wish to consider new rotavirus vaccines entering the market. Countries should carefully examine multiple product attributes including price and the incremental health system costs associated with each vaccine. These costs will vary by country and may be a defining factor in determining the least costly and most cost-effective product for the population.     

The cost-effectiveness of typhoid Vi vaccination programs: calculations for four urban sites in four Asian countries

The burden of typhoid fever remains high in impoverished settings, and increasing antibiotic resistance is making treatment costly. One strategy for reducing the typhoid morbidity and mortality is vaccination with the Vi polysaccharide vaccine. We use a wealth of new economic and epidemiological data to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Vi vaccination against typhoid in sites in four Asian cities: Kolkata (India), Karachi (Pakistan), North Jakarta (Indonesia), and Hue (Vietnam). We report results from both a societal as well as a public sector financial perspective. Baseline disease burden estimates in the four areas are: 750 cases per year in two Kolkata neighborhoods (pop 185,000); 84 cases per year in the city of Hue (pop 280,000); 298 cases per year in two sub-districts in North Jakarta (pop 161,000), and 538 cases per year in three squatter settlements in Karachi (pop 102,000). We estimate that a vaccination program targeting all children (2-14.9) would prevent 456, 158, and 258 typhoid cases (and 4.6, 1.6, and 2.6 deaths), and avert 126, 44, and 72 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over 3 years in Kolkata, North Jakarta and Karachi, respectively. The net social costs would be US$160 and US$549, per DALY averted in Kolkata and North Jakarta, respectively. These programs, along with a similar program in Karachi, would be considered "very cost-effective" (e.g. costs per DALY averted less than per capita gross national income (GNI)) under a wide range of assumptions. Community-based vaccination programs that also target adults in Kolkata and Jakarta are less cost-effective because incidence is lower in adults than children, but are also likely to be "very cost-effective". A program targeting school-aged children in Hue, Vietnam would prevent 21 cases, avert 6 DALYs, and not be cost-effective (US$3779 per DALY averted) because of the low typhoid incidence there.     

Rotavirus disease in Uzbekistan: cost-effectiveness of a new vaccine

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Uzbekistan from the healthcare system and societal perspectives. Disease burden was estimated using national statistics on hospitalizations and deaths, and international estimates of under-five mortality. Without vaccination, the risk for rotavirus hospitalization by age 5 is 10 per 1000 children. Rotavirus hospitalizations cost US$ 406,000 annually, of which US$ 360,000 (89%) is for medical expenses and US$ 46,000 (11%) is for non-medical and indirect costs. Rotavirus mortality rate at 0.7 per 1000 derived from national data was three-fold lower than the same rate calculated from international estimates of under-five mortality. Rotavirus vaccination could reduce hospitalizations and deaths by 91% and avert US$ 370,000 in hospitalization costs alone. Vaccination would be cost-effective with vaccine prices in a range of US$ 2-25 per child. However, the cost-effectiveness is greatly influenced by mortality, vaccine price and vaccine efficacy.