Glasgow Aneurysm Score as a predictor of immediate outcome after surgery for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to assess the value of the Glasgow Aneurysm Score in predicting postoperative death after repair of a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). METHODS: Between 1991 and 1999, 836 patients underwent surgery for ruptured AAA. Their operative risk at presentation was evaluated retrospectively using the Glasgow Aneurysm Score, based on data from the nationwide Finnvasc registry. RESULTS: The operative mortality rate was 47.2 per cent (395 of 836); 164 patients (19.6 per cent) had cardiac complications and 164 (19.6 per cent) required intensive care treatment for more than 5 days. Predictors of postoperative death in univariate analysis were: coronary artery disease (P = 0.005), preoperative shock (P < 0.001), age (P < 0.001), and the Glasgow Aneurysm Score (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis the predictors were: preoperative shock (odds ratio (OR) 2.13 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 1.45 to 3.11); P < 0.001) and the Glasgow Aneurysm Score (for an increase of ten units: OR 1.81 (95 per cent c.i. 1.54 to 2.12); P < 0.001). Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves showed that the best cut-off value of the Glasgow Aneurysm Score in predicting postoperative death was 84 (area under the curve 0.75 (95 per cent c.i. 0.72 to 0.78), standard error 0.17; P < 0.001). The operative mortality rate was 28.2 per cent (114 of 404) in patients with a Glasgow Aneurysm Score of 84 or less, compared with 65.0 per cent (281 of 432) in those with a score greater than 84 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The Glasgow Aneurysm Score predicted postoperative death after repair of ruptured AAA in this series.     

Glasgow Aneurysm Score in Patients Undergoing Elective Open Repair of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: A Finnvasc Study

OBJECTIVE: To use Finnvasc to determine whether the Glasgow Aneurysm Score predicts postoperative outcome after open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). DESIGN: Retrospective study. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The operative risk of 1911 patients undergoing open repair of AAA was retrospectively graded according to the Glasgow Aneurysm Score. RESULTS: At 30 days 100 (5%) patients had died and 21% had developed severe postoperative complications. Receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve analysis showed that the Glasgow Aneurysm Score was predictive of postoperative mortality (area under the curve (AUC): 0.668, p<0.0001), severe complications (AUC: 0.654, p<0.0001), cardiac complications (AUC: 0.689, p<0.0001) and intensive care unit stay >5 days (AUC: 0.634, p<0.0001). Patients scoring >76 had significantly higher mortality (9% vs. 3%, p<0.0001), severe (31% vs. 15%, p<0.0001) and cardiac complications (12% vs. 4%, p<0.0001) and intensive care unit stay >5 days (12% vs. 6%, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The Glasgow Aneurysm Score is a rather good predictor of immediate postoperative mortality and morbidity after elective open repair of AAA.     

Validity of the Glasgow Aneurysm Score and the Hardman Index in predicting outcome after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

BACKGROUND: The Glasgow Aneurysm Score and the Hardman Index have been recommended as predictors of outcome after repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). This study aimed to assess their validities. METHODS: Patients admitted to a single unit with a ruptured AAA over a 2-year interval (2000-2001) were identified from a prospectively compiled database. Hospital records of all patients undergoing attempted operative repair were reviewed. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score and the Hardman Index were calculated retrospectively and related to clinical outcome. RESULTS: One hundred patients were admitted with a ruptured AAA. Of these, 82 underwent attempted operative repair and were included in the study: 68 men and 14 women, of median age 73 (range 54-87) years. Thirty (37 per cent) patients died after the operation. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score was a poor predictor of postoperative mortality. The area under the Receiver-Operator Characteristic curve was 0.606 (P = 0.112, 95 per cent c.i. 0.483-0.729). Similarly, the Hardman Index failed to predict postoperative mortality accurately (P = 0.211, chi(2) for trend). Of nine patients in this series with three or more Hardman criteria, generally held to be fatal, six survived. CONCLUSION: Contrary to previous reports, The Glasgow Aneurysm Score and the Hardman Index were poor predictors of postoperative mortality after repair of a ruptured AAA in this study.     

Baseline oxygen delivery is associated with an increased risk of severe postoperative complications after elective open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm

AIM: Oxyhemodynamic parameters have been shown to have a relevant impact on the immediate postoperative outcome after major surgery, but it is not known their specific impact on the outcome after elective repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). METHODS: One-hundred and forty-one patients underwent elective open repair of infrarenal AAA and hemodynamic parameters were monitored perioperatively. RESULTS: One patient (0.7%) died postoperatively, 23 (16.3%) experienced a myocardial ischemic event and 9 of them (6.4%) had a myocardial infarction. Baseline oxygen delivery was not predictive of such myocardial ischemic events. Thirty-three patients (23.4%) suffered severe postoperative complications. The median baseline oxygen delivery was 429.5 mL/min/m2 among patients who had severe postoperative complications, whereas it was 505.5 mL/min/m2 among those who did not have severe complications (p=0.03). However, this parameter did not retain its significance at multivariate analysis. When only the preoperative variables were included in the logistic regression model, the Glasgow Aneurysm Score (P=0.004, Oddsratio 1.94, 95% C.I. 1.24-3.05) was the only predictor of severe postoperative complications. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score was significantly correlated with baseline oxygen delivery (P=-0.256, P=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline oxygen delivery is associated with an increased risk of severe postoperative complications after elective open repair of AAA. The value of preoperative optimization of oxygen delivery should be evaluated in this patient population.     

Outcome after emergency repair of symptomatic, unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm: results in 42 patients and review of the literature

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the results of our experience in the management of patients with symptomatic, unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), to identify the predictors of immediate outcome and to define the worldwide postoperative mortality rate through a review of previous studies on this condition. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Forty-two patients underwent emergency repair for symptomatic, unruptured AAA. RESULTS: Four patients (9.5%) died during the in-hospital stay, three of myocardial infarction and one of multiorgan failure. Only preoperative creatinine was predictive of postoperative death (p = 0.04, OR 1.31). The Glasgow Aneurysm Score tended to be predictive of postoperative death (p = 0.06), survivors having had a median score of 76.0 (IQR, 75.5-82.1) and patients who died of 87.1 (78.9-89.9). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that the Glasgow Aneurysm Score had an area under the curve of 0.789 (95% CI: 0.596-0.983, SE: 0.099, p = 0.06). Its best cut-off value in predicting postoperative death was 85 (specificity 86.8%, sensitivity 75.0%). The postoperative mortality rate among patients with a Glasgow Aneurysm Score <85 was 2.9%, whereas it was 37.5% among those with a score >85 (p = 0.003). A review of the results of previous studies on this condition, including also the present series, showed that 207 out of 1312 patients (15.8%) died after emergency operation for symptomatic, unruptured AAA. CONCLUSION: Emergency open repair of symptomatic, unruptured AAA is associated with a high risk of postoperative death. The results of this study suggest that a rather good postoperative survival rate can be expected in patients with a Glasgow Aneurysm Score <85. A watchful waiting policy or, alternatively, emergency endovascular repair should be advocated in patients with a higher score.     

Glasgow aneurysm score predicts the outcome after emergency open repair of symptomatic, unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the predictor factors of in-hospital postoperative mortality in patients presenting with symptomatic but not ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) at our institution. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Forty-two patients who underwent urgent open repair for symptomatic, non-ruptured AAA were evaluated retrospectively. RESULTS: Five patients (11.9%) died during the in-hospital stay. History of coronary artery disease (p=0.014), cerebrovascular diseases (p=0.015), renal failure according to Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS) criteria (p=0.001), serum creatinine concentration (p=0.026), and the GAS (p=0.008) were predictive of postoperative death. The ROC curve analysis showed that the Glasgow Aneurysm Score had an area under the curve of 0.870 (95%C.I. 0.71-1, S.E. 0.08, p=0.008), and its best cut-off value in predicting postoperative death was 90.0 (specificity 89.2%, sensitivity 80.0%). The postoperative mortality rate of patients with a Glasgow Aneurysm Score below 90 was 2.9%, whereas it was 50% for those with a score >or=90 (p=0.003, O.R. 33.0). CONCLUSION: This study shows that the Glasgow Aneurysm Score is a good predictor of postoperative mortality and morbidity after urgent repair of symptomatic, non-ruptured AAA and can be useful in identifying those patients whose operative risk is prohibitive. Its simplicity makes it a clinically important tool, particularly, in the emergency setting. Patients having a score less than 90 can safely undergo urgent open repair. Thorough evaluation and improvement of preoperative status followed preferably by an endovascular repair is indicated for those with a score >or=90.     

Comparison of risk-scoring methods in predicting the immediate outcome after elective open abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to apply three simple risk - scoring systems to prospectively collected data on all elective open Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) operations in the Cambridge Academic Vascular Unit over a 6 - year period (January 1998 to January 2004), to compare their predictive values and to evaluate their validity with respect to prediction of mortality and post-operative complications. METHODS: 204 patients underwent elective open infra-renal AAA repair. Data were prospectively collected and risk assessment scores were calculated for mortality and morbidity according to the Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), VBHOM (Vascular Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Models) and Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS). RESULTS: The mortality rate was 6.3% (13/204) and 59% (121/204) experienced a post-operative complication (30-day outcome). For GAS, VBHOM and E-PASS the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis for prediction of in-hospital mortality showed area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76 to 0.92; p<0.0001), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.68 to 0.95; p=0.0001) and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.87 to 0.97; p<0.0001) respectively. There were also significant correlations between post-operative complications and length of hospital stay and each of the three scores, but the correlation was substantially higher in the case of E-PASS. CONCLUSIONS: All three scoring systems accurately predicted the risk of mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing elective open AAA repair. Among these, E-PASS seemed to be the most accurate predictor in this patient population.     

Outcome after emergency repair of symptomatic,unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm: Results in 42 patients and review of the literature

Objective To evaluate the results of our experience in the management of patients with symptomatic, unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), to identify the predictors of immediate outcome and to define the worldwide postoperative mortality rate through a review of previous studies on this condition.

Patients and methods Forty-two patients underwent emergency repair for symptomatic, unruptured AAA.

Results Four patients (9.5%) died during the in-hospital stay, three of myocardial infarction and one of multiorgan failure. Only preoperative creatinine was predictive of postoperative death (p=0.04, OR 1.31). The Glasgow Aneurysm Score tended to be predictive of postoperative death (p=0.06), survivors having had a median score of 76.0 (IQR, 75.5–82.1) and patients who died of 87.1 (78.9–89.9). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that the Glasgow Aneurysm Score had an area under the curve of 0.789 (95% CI: 0.596–0.983, SE: 0.099, p=0.06). Its best cut-off value in predicting postoperative death was 85 (specificity 86.8%, sensitivity 75.0%). The postoperative mortality rate among patients with a Glasgow Aneurysm Score <85 was 2.9%, whereas it was 37.5% among those with a score >85 (p=0.003). A review of the results of previous studies on this condition, including also the present series, showed that 207 out of 1312 patients (15.8%) died after emergency operation for symptomatic, unruptured AAA.

Conclusion Emergency open repair of symptomatic, unruptured AAA is associated with a high risk of postoperative death. The results of this study suggest that a rather good postoperative survival rate can be expected in patients with a Glasgow Aneurysm Score <85. A watchful waiting policy or, alternatively, emergency endovascular repair should be advocated in patients with a higher score.     

Quantification of mortality risk after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

BACKGROUND: The study was designed to evaluate the Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II risk scoring system in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery. The aim was to create an APACHE-based risk stratification model for postoperative death. METHODS: Prospective postoperative APACHE II data were collected from patients undergoing AAA repair over a 9-year interval from 24 intensive care units (ICUs) in the Thames region. A multilevel logistic regression model (APACHE-AAA) for in-hospital mortality was developed to adjust for both case mix and the variation in outcome between ICUs. RESULTS: A total of 1896 patients were studied. The in-hospital mortality rate among the 1289 patients who had elective AAA repair was 9.6 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 8.0 to 11.2) per cent and that among the 605 patients who had an emergency repair was 46.9 (95 per cent c.i. 43.0 to 50.9) per cent. Four independent predictors of death were identified: age (odds ratio (OR) 1.05 (95 per cent c.i. 1.03 to 1.07) per year increase), Acute Physiology Score (OR 1.14 (95 per cent c.i. 1.12 to 1.17) per unit increase), emergency operation (OR 4.86 (95 per cent c.i. 3.64 to 6.52)) and chronic health dysfunction (OR 1.43 (95 per cent c.i. 1.04 to 1.97)). The APACHE-AAA model was internally valid, as shown by calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow C statistic: chi(2) = 6.14, 8 d.f., P = 0.632), discrimination properties (area under receiver-operator characteristic curve 0.845) and subgroup analysis. There was no significant variation in outcome between hospitals. CONCLUSION: APACHE-AAA was shown to be an accurate risk-stratification model that could be used to quantify the risk of death after AAA surgery. It might also be used to determine the relative impact of ICU over high-dependency unit care.     

Glasgow Aneurysm Score predicts survival after endovascular stenting of abdominal aortic aneurysm in patients from the EUROSTAR registry

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the efficacy of the Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS) in predicting the survival of 5498 patients who underwent endovascular repair (EVAR) of an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and were enrolled in the EUROpean collaborators on Stent-graft Techniques for abdominal aortic Aneurysm Repair (EUROSTAR) Registry between October 1996 and March 2005. METHODS: The GAS was calculated in patients who underwent EVAR and was correlated to outcome measurements. RESULTS: The median GAS was 78.8 (interquartile range 71.9-86.4, mean 79.2). Tertile 30-day mortality rates were 1.1 per cent for patients with a GAS less than 74.4, 2.1 per cent for those with a score between 74.4 and 83.6, and 5.3 per cent for patients with a score over 83.6 (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that GAS was an independent predictor of postoperative death (P < 0.001). The receiver-operator characteristic curve showed that the GAS had an area under the curve of 0.70 (95 per cent confidence interval 0.66 to 0.74; s.e. 0.02; P < 0.001) for predicting immediate postoperative death. At its best cut-off value of 86.6, it had a sensitivity of 56.1 per cent, specificity 76.2 per cent and accuracy 75.6 per cent. Multivariable analysis showed that overall survival was significantly different among the tertiles of the GAS (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The GAS was effective in predicting outcome after EVAR. Because its efficacy has also been shown in patients undergoing open repair of AAA, it can be used to aid decisions about treatment in all patients with an AAA.     

External validation of the Glasgow Aneurysm Score to predict outcome in elective open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

OBJECTIVES: Selecting patients based on their risk profiles could improve the outcome after elective surgery of an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). The Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS) is a scoring system developed to determine such risk profiles. In other settings, the GAS has proved to have a predictive value for the postoperative outcome. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the GAS was also valid for the patients in our hospital and to examine risk factors with a possible predictive value for postoperative mortality and morbidity. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in a university hospital. The medical records of 229 patients who underwent open elective repair for an AAA in the period 1994 to 2003 were retrospectively analyzed to assess the GAS and to determine which of the examined risk factors had a predictive value for the prognosis. RESULTS: Five patients (2.2%) died after surgery and 30 (13.1%) had a major complication. The GAS was predictive for postoperative death (P = .021; sensitivity, 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52 to 1.00; specificity, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.73) and also for major morbidity (P = .029; sensitivity, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.78; specificity, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.76). The positive predictive value (mortality, 0.06; morbidity, 0.24) and the positive likelihood ratio (mortality, 3.07; morbidity, 2.14) were low, however. The best cutoff value for the GAS was determined at 77. All the deceased patients (100%) and 63.3% of those who had a major complication had a risk score of >or=77. Of all examined risk factors, suprarenal clamping during surgery was predictive of in-hospital mortality (8.3%, P = .017). For major morbidity, three risk factors, all of which are components of the GAS, were predictive: age (P = .046), cardiac disease (P = .032), and renal disease (P = .041). CONCLUSIONS: The Glasgow Aneurysm Score has a predictive value for outcome after open elective AAA repair. Because of its relatively low positive predictive value for death and major morbidity, the GAS is of limited value in clinical decision-making for the individual high-risk patient. In some particular cases, however, the GAS can be a useful tool, especially for low-risk patients because it has good negative predictive value for this group. Suprarenal clamping was found to be a risk factor for postoperative death.     

The Glasgow Aneurysm Score as a tool to predict 30-day and 2-year mortality in the patients from the Dutch Randomized Endovascular Aneurysm Management trial

OBJECTIVE: Randomized trials have shown that endovascular repair (EVAR) of an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has a lower perioperative mortality than conventional open repair (OR). However, this initial survival advantage disappears after 1 year. To make EVAR cost-effective, patient selection should be improved. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS) estimates preoperative risk profiles that predict perioperative outcomes after OR. It was recently shown to predict perioperative and long-term mortality after EVAR as well. Here, we applied the GAS to patients from the Dutch Randomized Endovascular Aneurysm Repair (DREAM) trial and compared the applicability of the GAS between open repair and EVAR. METHODS: A multicenter, randomized trial was conducted to compare OR with EVAR in 345 AAA patients. The GAS was calculated (age + [7 points for myocardial disease] + [10 points for cerebrovascular disease] + [14 points for renal disease]). Optimal cutoff values were determined, and test characteristics for 30-day and 2-year mortality were computed. RESULTS: The mean GAS was 74.7 +/- 9.3 for OR patients and 75.9 +/- 9.7 for EVAR patients. Two EVAR patients and eight OR patients died < or =30 days postoperatively. The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.79 for OR patients and 0.87 for EVAR patients. The optimal GAS cutoff value was 75.5 for OR and 86.5 for EVAR. By 2 years postoperatively, 18 patients had died in both the EVAR and the OR patient groups. The AUC was 0.74 for OR patients and 0.78 for EVAR patients. The optimal GAS cutoff value was 74.5 for OR and 77.5 for EVAR. CONCLUSION: This is the first evaluation of the GAS in a randomized trial comparing AAA patients treated with OR and EVAR. The GAS can be used for prediction of 30-day and 2-year mortality in both OR and EVAR, but in patients that are suitable for both procedures, it is a better predictor for EVAR than for OR patients. In this study, the GAS was most valuable in identifying low-risk patients but not very useful for the identification of the small number of high-risk patients.     

External validation of Vascular Study Group of New England risk predictive model of mortality after elective abdominal aorta aneurysm repair in the Vascular Quality Initiative and comparison against established models

Objective

The purpose of this study is to externally validate a recently reported Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) risk predictive model of postoperative mortality after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and to compare its predictive ability across different patients' risk categories and against the established risk predictive models using the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) AAA sample.

Prognostic scoring in ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm: a prospective evaluation

BACKGROUND: Prospective validation of prognostic scoring systems for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is lacking. This study assesses the validity of three established risk scores and a new prognostic index. METHOD: Patients admitted with ruptured AAA during a 26-month period (August 2002-December 2004) were recruited prospectively. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), Hardman Index, Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) scores, and the Edinburgh Ruptured Aneurysm Score (ERAS) were recorded and related to outcome. RESULTS: During the study period, 111 patients were admitted with ruptured AAA. Of these, 84 (76%) underwent attempted operative repair and were included in the study; 37 (44%) died after operation. The GAS, Hardman Index, and the ERAS were statistically related to mortality. However, analysis by receiver-operator characteristic curve revealed the ERAS to have an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-0.83). The vascular (V)-POSSUM and ruptured AAA (RAAA)-POSSUM models had an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.59-0.82). The Hardman Index and GAS had an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57-0.80) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.52-0.76), respectively. Although the V-POSSUM equation predicted mortality effectively (P = .086), the RAAA-POSSUM derivative demonstrated a significant lack of fit (P = .009). CONCLUSION: Prospective validation shows that the Hardman Index, GAS, and V-POSSUM and RAAA-POSSUM scores do not perform well as predictors for death after ruptured AAA. The ERAS accurately stratifies perioperative risk but requires further validation.     

Preoperative risk stratification in patients undergoing elective infrarenal aortic aneurysm surgery: evaluation of five risk scoring methods.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate five risk scoring methods in predicting the immediate postoperative outcome after elective open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). DESIGN: Retrospective evaluation of the Eagle score, Glasgow aneurysm score, Leiden score, modified Leiden score and Vanzetto score in a consecutive series of patients. PATIENTS: Two hundred and eighty-six consecutive patients undergoing elective infrarenal aortic aneurysm repair. RESULTS: Nine patients (3.1%) died in hospital and another 35 (12%) experienced severe postoperative complications. For the Glasgow aneurysm score, Leiden score, modified Leiden score and Vanzetto score receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis for prediction of in-hospital mortality showed area under the curve (AUC) of 0.749 (p=0.01), 0.777 (p=0.008), 0.788 (p=0.006) and 0.794 (p=0.005), respectively. The Eagle risk score was less accurate for predicting in-hospital mortality. The risk-scoring systems did not perform well in predicting post-operative complications, but multivariate analysis showed that the modified Leiden score was an independent predictor of postoperative complications. CONCLUSION: All scoring systems predict, with reasonable accuracy, the risk of in-hospital death in patients undergoing elective open repair of AAA, whereas the accuracy in predicting severe postoperative complications is less.     

Incidence of incisional hernias in patients operated on for aneurysm or occlusive disease

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the incidence of postoperative incisional hernias after elective open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair versus aortofemoral reconstruction. In this open prospective study, 281 patients who underwent elective open AAA or aortofemoral repair were included. All patients were evaluated by clinical examination 1 month after the operation, every 6 months for the next 5 years, and every year thereafter for the presence of an incisional hernia. Mean duration of follow-up was 63.7 months (range, 12-144 months). Seventeen patients (6.2%) were lost to follow-up. The development of a postoperative incisional hernia was recorded and analyzed with regard to the demographic data and the traditional risk factors for atherosclerosis. Statistical analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox regression analysis. The development of a postoperative incisional hernia after AAA surgical repair had an incidence of 16.2 per cent versus 7.4 per cent after aortofemoral reconstruction. Patients electively operated on for AAA have a 3.8-fold increase of developing a postoperative incisional hernia over patients operated on for peripheral occlusive disease (POD).     

Mid-term survival after abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery predicted by cardiopulmonary exercise testing

BACKGROUND: Cardiopulmonary exercise (CPX) testing measures how efficiently subjects meet increased metabolic demand. This study aimed to determine whether preoperative CPX testing predicted postoperative survival following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. METHODS: Some 130 patients had CPX testing before elective open AAA repair. Additional preoperative, operative and postoperative variables were recorded prospectively. Median follow-up was 35 months. The correlation of variables with survival was assessed by single and multiple regression analyses. RESULTS: CPX testing identified 30 of 130 patients who had been unfit before surgery. Two years after surgery the Kaplan-Meier survival estimate was 55 per cent for the 30 unfit patients, compared with 97 per cent for the 100 fit patients. The absolute difference in survival between these two groups at 2 years was 42 (95 per cent confidence interval 18 to 65) per cent (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Preoperative CPX testing, combined with simple co-morbidity scoring, identified patients unlikely to survive in the mid-term, even after successful AAA repair.     

The influence of aneurysm size on perioperative cardiac outcome in elective open infrarenal aortic aneurysm repair

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) size and growth has been found to be associated with local generation of inflammation markers such as interleukin-6. Inflammation also seems to be important in perioperative adverse cardiac events. We hypothesized that patients with a large AAA are at increased risk for cardiac events. METHODS: Consecutive patients who underwent a computed tomography angiography scan before open elective infrarenal AAA repair between March 2000 and December 2005 at three hospitals were analyzed. All patients were screened for the clinical risk factors of age, gender, angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, heart failure, diabetes, stroke, renal failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, as well as for cardioprotective medication. Postoperative data on troponin release, creatine kinase/creatine kinase isoenzyme MB, and electrocardiogram were routinely collected on days 1, 3, 7, and 30. The main outcome measure was the combined end point of 30-day cardiovascular death and nonfatal myocardial infarction. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the influence of AAA size on postoperative cardiac outcome. RESULTS: The study included 500 patients. Their mean age was 69.8 +/- 9.5 years, and 431 (86%) were men. Thirty-one patients (6.2%) had perioperative cardiovascular complications, consisting of 15 (3.0%) cardiovascular deaths and 16 (3.2%) nonfatal myocardial infarctions. After correction for other risk factors, including age, Revised Cardiac Risk Index, medication use, duration of surgery, and intraoperative blood loss, AAA size was independently associated with perioperative nonfatal myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death (3.2% increase in risk for each millimeter added, 95% confidence interval 1.1% to 6.2%, P = .007). CONCLUSION: A larger AAA size is independently associated with an increased incidence of perioperative cardiovascular complications after elective infrarenal AAA repair.     

Comparison of mortality prediction models after open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

OBJECTIVES: Comparison of the accuracy of prediction of contemporary mortality prediction models after open Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) surgery. METHODS: Post-operative data were collected from AAA patients from 2 UK Intensive Care Units (ICU). POSSUM and VBHOM based models were compared to the APACHE-AAA model which was able to adjust for the hospital-related effect on outcome. Model performance was assessed using measures of calibration, discrimination and subgroup analysis. RESULTS: 541 patients were studied. The in-hospital mortality rate for elective AAA repair (325 patients) was: 6.2% (95% confidence interval (c.i.) 3.5 to 8.8) and for emergency repair (216 patients) was: 28.7% (95% c.i. 22.5-34.9). The APACHE-based model had the best overall fit to the whole population of AAA patients, and also separately in elective and emergency patients. The V-POSSUM physiology-only (p<0.001) and VBHOM (p=0.011) models had a poor fit in elective patients. The RAAA-POSSUM physiology-only (p<0.001) and VBHOM models (p=0.010) had a poor fit in emergency patients. CONCLUSIONS: The APACHE-AAA model with its ability to adjust for both the hospital-related "effect" as well as the patient case-mix, was a more accurate risk stratification model than other contemporary models, in the post-operative AAA patient managed in ICU.     

French multicentre prospective observational study of laparoscopic versus open colectomy for sigmoid diverticular disease

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to compare in-hospital morbidity and mortality rates after elective laparoscopic and open colorectal surgery for sigmoid diverticular disease (SDD). METHODS: This prospective national multicentre observational study included all consecutive patients undergoing open or laparoscopic elective colectomy for SDD in a 4-month period between June and September 2002. Postoperative in-hospital mortality and morbidity in the two groups were compared. RESULTS: Three hundred and thirty-two consecutive patients undergoing either laparoscopic (163 patients) or open (169 patients) colectomy for SDD were analysed. Overall postoperative mortality and morbidity rates were 0.3 and 23.8 per cent respectively. The morbidity rate was significantly higher in the open than in the laparoscopic group (P < 0.001), leading to a significantly longer hospital stay (P < 0.001). The morbidity rate remained significantly higher in the open group when the patients were matched for age (P = 0.015) or American Society of Anesthesiologists score (P = 0.028). An open procedure (relative risk (RR) 2.13 (95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 1.29 to 3.45)), age over 70 years (RR 1.62 (95 per cent c.i. 1.14 to 2.30)) and intraperitoneal contamination (RR 2.54 (95 per cent c.i. 1.18 to 5.50)) were identified as independent risk factors for morbidity. CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach to elective treatment of SDD may be associated with reduced postoperative morbidity and hospital stay. A randomized study is required to confirm these results.