基于GM（1,1）模型的广东省儿科医生数量缺口预测

目的 预测2021—2025年广东省儿科医生的缺口数量,为构建规模适宜的儿科医生队伍提供决策依据。方法 采用年均增长率描述广东省2012—2020年儿科医生的实际数、需求数和缺口数;运用GM（1,1）模型分别预测2021—2025年广东省儿科医生的实际数和需求数,求得同期儿科医生供需比及缺口数。结果 广东省儿科医生日均负担诊疗人次从2012年的20.84人降至2019年的20.16人,但2012—2020年全省儿科医生日均工作负荷均高于同期全省医生和全国儿科医生;2012—2020年广东儿科医生实际数、需求数和缺口数的年均增长率分别为6.63％、5.29％、1.39％,儿科医生供需比均小于1;预测结果显示,2021—2025年广东省儿科医生实际数继续保持较快增长,但儿科医生供需比仍然小于1,儿科医生缺口数逐年扩大。结论 广东省儿科医生工作负担重强度高,儿科医生供给未能满足实际需求;建议加快儿科医生全方位多层次人才培养,进一步细化儿童医疗服务支持政策以稳定儿科医生队伍;落实健康中国行动,提高儿童青少年身体素质。     

Physical-psychiatric comorbidity: patterns and explanations for ethnic group differences

Objective: This paper examines ethnic differences in the co-occurrence of physical and psychiatric health problems (physical-psychiatric comorbidity) for women and men. The following ethnic groups are included: Non-Latino Whites, African Americans, Caribbean Blacks, Spanish Caribbean Blacks, Mexicans, Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Other Latinos, Chinese, Filipinos, Vietnamese, and Other Asian Americans. In addition, the study assesses the extent to which social factors (socioeconomic status, stress exposure, social support) account for ethnic differences in physical-psychiatric comorbidity (PPC).

Design: This study uses data from the Collaborative Psychiatric Epidemiology Surveys (CPES) (N?=?12,787). Weighted prevalence rates of physical-psychiatric comorbidity (PPC) – the co-occurrence of physical and psychiatric health problems – are included to examine ethnic group differences among women and men. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to determine group differences in PPC before and after adjusting for social factors.

Results: Puerto Rican men have significantly higher risk of PPC in comparison to Non-Latino White men. Among women, Blacks and Cubans were more likely than Non-Latino Whites to experience PPC as opposed to ‘Psychiatric Only’ health problems. Social factors account for the Puerto Rican/Non-Latino White difference in comorbid health among men, but have little explanatory power for understanding ethnic differences in comorbidity among women.

Conclusion: These findings have implications for medical care and can guide intervention programs in targeting a specific constellation of co-occurring physical and psychiatric health problems for diverse ethnic groups in the United States. As comorbidity rates increase, it is crucial to identify the myriad factors that give rise to ethnic group differences therein.     

Developing professional values: perceptions of francophone occupational therapists in Quebec,Canada

Objective Recent literature shows growing interest in the values displayed by occupational therapists. Yet, none of these writings has so far examined the factors that contribute to the development of occupational therapists’ professional values. These factors are important, since values play a pivotal role in forging professional identity, which in the case of some occupational therapists remains somewhat ambiguous. This article proposes possible answers to the following question: What do Quebec Francophone occupational therapists perceive as the building blocks of their professional values? Methods Using a phenomenological qualitative method, the subjective experience of occupational therapists in Quebec, Canada was examined. Twenty-six occupational therapists took part in the study. Results As intended, their professional experience was varied. According to the participants, four factors contributed significantly to their professional values: professional experience, university training, personal experience, and professional development. However, fewer than 50% of the participants cited six other factors (workplace, family upbringing, personal development, personality and abilities, professional normative framework, and sociocultural background). Conclusions Most of these results are consistent with those documented in existing works. They point to the relevance of discussing professional values during university training and continuing professional development, as well as encouraging occupational therapists to become exemplars for their colleagues and interns. This study constitutes an initial step in understanding how occupational therapists’ axiological identity is formed.     

Modeling manpower requirement for a changing population health needs: The case of ophthalmic nurses and allied health ophthalmic professionals

BackgroundPrevalence of chronic eye conditions has been shown to increase with age. As the global population continues to age rapidly, the demand for eye care services is expected to increase significantly in the near future, requiring effective health workforce planning in order to provide for the needs of the population. The aim of this paper is to synthesize data from a variety of sources to develop a simulation model based on the systems modelling methodology of system dynamics that links population health needs to workforce requirements to generate evidence-based projections for ophthalmic nurses, and allied health ophthalmic professionals in Singapore.MethodsA system dynamics simulation model was developed with active engagement of key stakeholders—such as ophthalmologists, senior nurses, healthcare planners and managers, and senior technicians—to verify the model structure and assumptions. The model project the future requirement of ophthalmic nurses, technicians and patient service assistants.ResultsThe number of Singaporeans with eye diseases is projected to more than double by 2040. As a result, the demand for eye care services and eye care workforce is expected to increase significantly under all the plausible scenarios. The increase in eye disease burden is due mainly to population aging—given that the prevalence of eye disease increases with age.ConclusionThis research provides a future demand outlook for ophthalmic nurses, technicians and patient service assistants in Singapore and has implications for recruitment and training of ophthalmic nurses and allied health professionals in Singapore.     

“My view that disability is okay sometimes clashes”: experiences of two disabled occupational therapists

Abstract

Aims: While disability is the focus of much attention in occupational therapy, there has been little attention paid to disability within the profession. Disabled therapists not only bring valuable perspectives on disability, but also pose important challenges to taken-for-granted assumptions about impairment and disability within the profession. At the same time, their cultural beliefs and values may clash with core assumptions of the profession. Methods: This study analyses interview data from two disabled occupational therapists, part of a larger study with cultural minority therapists. Semi-structured interviews explored their experiences of professional practice in the context of societal belief in the superiority of non-disabled and “normal” ways of doing and being. Major findings: Some cultural values of participants clashed with the values and beliefs of their profession, particularly concerning independence. Negative attitudes of colleagues and managers were the key barriers to practice. The responsibility for bridging the disabled/non-disabled cultural divide rested with the disabled therapists, exacerbating inequity. Nonetheless, these therapists believed their disability experiences had advantages for practice. Conclusions: Disabled therapists may be required to engage in invisible work to communicate across cultural differences, and to educate others. Respectful openness to difference could enhance the practice competence of both disabled therapists and their non-disabled colleagues. This demands critical reflexive attention to ableism within the profession.     

Building the Supervisory Alliance with Beginning Therapists

ABSTRACT

Outcome studies in psychotherapy research have indicated the importance of the therapeutic alliance independent of the therapeutic orientation. However, because of the multiple demands placed on beginning therapists and their supervisors, the therapeutic relationship is often neglected during supervision, often with problematic results. This article proposes that for beginning therapists, clinical supervisors must take into account the supervisory alliance as a means of helping therapists learn to develop their therapeutic alliances. Using ego-analytic theory as a guide to supervision, the authors underscore how to develop this alliance in an effective manner. Specific suggestions and case examples are given to highlight this trans-theoretical approach.     

Predictive modeling the physician assistant supply: 2010-2025

Objective

A component of health-care reform in 2010 identified physician assistants (PAs) as needed to help mitigate the expected doctor shortage. We modeled their number to predict rational estimates for workforce planners.

Methods

The number of PAs in active clinical practice in 2010 formed the baseline. We used graduation rates and program expansion to project annual growth; attrition estimates offset these amounts. A simulation model incorporated historical trends, current supply, and graduation amounts. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to systematically adjust parameters in the model to determine the effects of such changes.

Results

As of 2010, there were 74,476 PAs in the active workforce. The mean age was 42 years and 65% were female. There were 154 accredited educational programs; 99% had a graduating class and produced an average of 44 graduates annually (total n=6,776). With a 7% increase in graduate entry rate and a 5% annual attrition rate, the supply of clinically active PAs will grow to 93,099 in 2015, 111,004 in 2020, and 127,821 in 2025. This model holds clinically active PAs in primary care at 34%.

Conclusions

The number of clinically active PAs is projected to increase by almost 72% in 15 years. Attrition rates, especially retirement patterns, are not well understood for PAs, and variation could affect future supply. While the majority of PAs are in the medical specialties and subspecialties fields, new policy steps funding PA education and promoting primary care may add more PAs in primary care than the model predicts.Physician assistants (PAs) and nurse practitioners (NPs) are considered essential parts of the contemporary U.S. medical workforce.¹ As medical providers, PAs have been essential during times of physician shortages and, historically, it was a lack of doctors in underserved areas that first spurred their creation.² Once again, experts believe that the U.S. faces an insufficient cadre of physicians, with projections indicating that the supply will be unable to keep pace with demand; by 2025, a shortage of 124,000 primary care physicians is anticipated.^3,4 Consequently, analysts have suggested that there will be an increased reliance on PAs and NPs.^5,6Models developed to predict the supply of physicians under various scenarios are important for health planners. Because little research has included the supply of PAs and NPs in these projections, accurate numbers of clinically active providers are needed for rational medical workforce planning. Such key data could provide policy makers with needed information to augment physician services in both the specialty and primary care sectors of the medical workforce.     

A Survey of Occupational Therapy Practice in Beijing,China

There is an increasing demand for rehabilitation services in China as a result of the growing number of people with physical and mental challenges, as well as the growing population of older adults. The purpose of this study was to explore the current occupational therapy (OT) resources available in Beijing, China, to serve as the first step in planning the response to increasing demand for OT services from the people of China. Specifically, using the snowball sampling survey method, we explored the work practice, including years of working experience, work setting, weekly work hours, annual income and factors related to job satisfaction among occupational therapists in Beijing, China. A total of 44 occupational therapists currently working in the Beijing area responded to our survey. The results demonstrated that most of the therapists working in Beijing area were young and inexperienced. Despite the fact that the participants had an average age of 31 years old and an average of 8 years' working experience, 61.4% of therapists were under 30 years old and more than half of therapists had less than 5 years of OT experiences. Among those included in the study sample, 50% had earned degrees in OT, and the rest of the OT personnel received OT‐related on‐the‐job training in various forms and lengths of time. A majority of the participants worked in hospital settings with adults or children with physical disabilities and used therapeutic activities and therapeutic exercises. Being an occupational therapist is not a high‐paying job. Education satisfaction, work experience and annual income are the factors related to job satisfaction for the participants. The majority of occupational therapists expressed the need to receive more support for clinical‐related trainings. We plan to expand this pilot study nationwide to gain an in‐depth and comprehensive understanding of the OT workforce in China. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of Copayment in Long-Term Care Insurance on Long-Term Care and Medical Care Expenditure

ObjectiveThis study aimed to clarify the difference in (1) long-term care (LTC) usage and expenditure and (2) medical care service usage and expenditure before and after the change in the copayment limit for qualifying individuals from 10% to 20%.Setting and ParticipantsThis quasi-experimental longitudinal design used the database from 1 prefecture of Japan that included 570,434 person-month records of 23,879 insured individuals (in August 2014) who used LTC services between August 2014 and July 2015 and were aged 65 years and older on August 1, 2014.MethodsWe conducted difference-in-difference estimations to compare “before” and “after” outcome differences between insured individuals whose LTC copayment increased to 20% and those whose copayment remained at 10%. Sex, age, Care Needs Level, subsidy, and public assistance were adjusted in the models, along with robustness checks.ResultsDifferences in both insurer's payment and insured's copayment indicated statistical significance between those whose copayment increased and those whose copayment did not increase. We found no significant difference in the number of minutes of home care service use, days of facility care service use, and LTC expenditures among those with copayment increases as well as those with no increase in copayment following the insured's copayment increase policy implementation. In contrast, the policy implementation caused significant differences in the number of days of hospitalization, medical care expenditures, and total expenditures.Conclusions and ImplicationsThe increase in insured individuals' copayment decreased LTC insurer's payment. However, total LTC expenditure increased over time although the increase trend slowed down in the treatment group after the copayment increase policy implemented. Besides, medical care expenditure increased consistently among insured individuals whose copayment increased. As there appears to be a “balloon effect” between LTC and medical care services, it is important to discuss the medical care system while considering the LTC insurance system comprehensively.     

The current shortage and future surplus of doctors: a projection of the future growth of the Japanese medical workforce

Background

Starting in the late 1980s, the Japanese government decreased the number of students accepted into medical school each year in order to reduce healthcare spending. The result of this policy is a serious shortage of doctors in Japan today, which has become a social problem in recent years. In an attempt to solve this problem, the Japanese government decided in 2007 to increase the medical student quota from 7625 to 8848. Furthermore, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan's ruling party after the 2009 election, promised in their manifesto to increase the medical student quota to 1.5 times what it was in 2007, in order to raise the number of medical doctors to more than 3.0 per 1000 persons. It should be noted, however, that this rapid increase in the medical student quota may bring about a serious doctor surplus in the future, especially because the population of Japan is decreasing. The purpose of this research is to project the future growth of the Japanese medical doctor workforce from 2008 to 2050 and to forecast whether the proposed additional increase in the student quota will cause a doctor surplus.

Methods

Simulation modeling of the Japanese medical workforce.

Results

Even if the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ fails, the number of practitioners is projected to increase from 286 699 (2.25 per 1000 persons) in 2008 to 365 533 (over the national numerical goal of 3.0 per 1000) in 2024. The number of practitioners per 1000 persons is projected to further increase to 3.10 in 2025, to 3.71 in 2035, and to 4.69 in 2050. If the additional increase in the medical student quota promised by the DPJ is realized, the total workforce is projected to rise to 392 331 (3.29 per 1000 persons) in 2025, 464 296 (4.20 per 1,000 persons) in 2035, and 545 230 (5.73 per 1000 persons) in 2050.

Conclusions

The plan to increase the medical student quota will bring about a serious doctor surplus in the long run.     

Going the distance: Developing shared web-based learning programmes

Despite a high demand for continuing professional education, it is becoming more challenging to provide education in a resource-limited environment that meets the varied needs of learners. The advent of user-friendly, interactive communication technology led the University of British Columbia in Canada to explore the feasibility of developing a web-based distance learning programme shared by undergraduate and practising therapists to address this problem. Potential benefits and challenges of distance learning, undergraduate web-learning, pilot-test results and an assessment of therapists’ interests and needs are profiled.     

International migration patterns of physicians to the United States: A cross-national panel analysis

ObjectivesTo analyze the dynamics of physician international migration patterns and identify the countries deviating most from expected migration rates.MethodsA negative binomial log-linear model of physician migration to the United States from every other country was constructed using a panel of country-level data for years 1994–2000. The model was used to identify factors associated with physician migration and to identify countries with higher or lower rates of physician migration than expected.ResultsPhysician migration varied with a country's GDP per capita in an inverse-U pattern, with highest migration rates from middle-income countries. The absence of medical schools, immigrant networks in the United States, medical instruction in English, proximity to the United States, and the lack of political and civil liberties were also associated with higher migration rates. Countries with higher-than-predicted migration rates included Iceland, Albania, Armenia, Dominica, Lebanon, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Bulgaria. Countries with lower-than-predicted migration rates included Mexico, Japan, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Mauritania, Portugal, Senegal, and France.ConclusionsThis analysis shows that many of the most powerful factors associated with physician migration are difficult or impossible for countries to change through public policy. GDP per capita and proximity to the U.S. are two of the most powerful predictors of physician migration. Networks of immigrants in the U.S. and fewer political and civil liberties also put countries at higher risk for physician emigration. Several other factors that were associated with physician migration might be more easily amenable to policy intervention. These factors include the absence of a medical school and medical instruction in English. Policies addressing these factors would involve making several difficult tradeoffs, however. Other examples of policies that are effective in minimizing physician migration might be found by examining countries with lower-than-expected migration rates.     

Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study

Objectives

Italian regional health authorities annually negotiate the number of residency grants to be financed by the National government and the number and mix of supplementary grants to be funded by the regional budget. This study provides regional decision-makers with a requirement model to forecast the future demand of specialists at the regional level.

Methods

We have developed a system dynamics (SD) model that projects the evolution of the supply of medical specialists and three demand scenarios across the planning horizon (2030). Demand scenarios account for different drivers: demography, service utilization rates (ambulatory care and hospital discharges) and hospital beds. Based on the SD outputs (occupational and training gaps), a mixed integer programming (MIP) model computes potentially effective assignments of medical specialization grants for each year of the projection.

Results

To simulate the allocation of grants, we have compared how regional and national grants can be managed in order to reduce future gaps with respect to current training patterns. The allocation of 25 supplementary grants per year does not appear as effective in reducing expected occupational gaps as the re-modulation of all regional training vacancies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1478-4491-13-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Successful introduction of an underutilized elderly pneumococcal vaccine in a national immunization program by integrating the pre-existing public health infrastructure

BackgroundAlthough pneumococcal vaccines had been recommended for the elderly population in South Korea for a considerable period of time, the coverage has been well below the optimal level. To increase the vaccination rate with integrating the pre-existing public health infrastructure and governmental funding, the Korean government introduced an elderly pneumococcal vaccination into the national immunization program with a 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine in May 2013.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to assess the performance of the program in increasing the vaccine coverage rate and maintaining stable vaccine supply and safe vaccination during the 20 months of the program.MethodsWe qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed the process of introducing and the outcomes of the program in terms of the systematic organization, efficiency, and stability at the national level.ResultsA staggered introduction during the first year utilizing the public sector, with a target coverage of 60%, was implemented based on the public demand for an elderly pneumococcal vaccination, vaccine supply capacity, vaccine delivery capacity, safety, and sustainability. During the 20-month program period, the pneumococcal vaccine coverage rate among the population aged ≥65 years increased from 5.0% to 57.3% without a noticeable vaccine shortage or safety issues. A web-based integrated immunization information system, which includes the immunization registry, vaccine supply chain management, and surveillance of adverse events following immunization, reduced programmatic errors and harmonized the overall performance of the program.ConclusionIntroduction of an elderly pneumococcal vaccination in the national immunization program based on strong government commitment, meticulous preparation, financial support, and the pre-existing public health infrastructure resulted in an efficient, stable, and sustainable increase in vaccination coverage.     

Prevalence of disability in Australian elderly: Impact of trends in obesity and diabetes

ObjectiveWe aimed to estimate the impact of past and future changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence in mid-life on disability prevalence for adult Australians.MethodsWe analysed data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab) including participants aged 45–64 years, disability-free at baseline (1999/2000) with disability information at follow-up (2011/12) (n = 2107). We used coefficients from multinomial logistic regression to predict 10-year probabilities of disability and death from baseline predictors (age, sex, obesity, smoking, diabetes and hypertension). We estimated the prevalence of disability attributable to past (1980) and expected future (2025) changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence using the life table approach.ResultsWe estimated that the prevalence of disability for those aged between 55 and 74 years would have been 1697 cases per 100,000 persons less in 2010 (10.3% less) if the rates of obesity and diabetes observed in 2000 had been as low as the levels observed in 1980. However, if instead the prevalence of obesity and diabetes had been as high as the levels expected in 2025, then the prevalence of disability would have been an additional 2173 per 100,000 persons (an additional 13.2%).ConclusionsWe demonstrate, for the first time, a substantial potential impact of obesity and diabetes trends on disability amongst those aged 55–74 years. In Australian adults by 2025 we estimate that around 26% of disability cases would have been avoidable if there had been no change in obesity and diabetes prevalence since 1980. A similar impact is likely around the world in developed countries.     

Modelling the optimal target age group for seasonal influenza vaccination in Japan

BackgroundIn Japan, the current influenza vaccination programme is targeting older individuals. On the other hand, epidemics of influenza are likely to be mainly driven by children. In this study, we consider the most cost-effective target age group for a seasonal influenza vaccination programme in Japan.MethodsWe constructed a deterministic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with data from the 2012/13 to 2014/15 influenza seasons in Japan. Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used for parameter estimation. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted from public health care payer’s perspective.ResultsA scenario targeting children under 15 was expected to reduce the number of cases 6,382,345 compared to the current strategy. A scenario targeting elderly population (age over 49 years) was expected to reduce the number of cases 693,206. The children targeted scenario demonstrated negative ICER (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio) value. On the other hand, elderly targeted scenario demonstrated higher ICER value than the willingness to pay (50,000 USD/QALY).ConclusionsA vaccination programme which targets children under 15 is predicted to have much larger epidemiological impact than those targeting elderly.     

医共体总额预付对基层医疗服务供给的影响分析——基于湖北省黄冈市黄州区的实证研究

目的：分析总额预付制改革对黄州区医共体基层医疗服务供给的影响。方法：收集黄州区医共体月度数据,描述性分析基层医疗服务供给能力、效率及数量的变化,利用间断时间序列检验总额预付两次政策改革前后服务供给数量的变化情况。结果：黄州区分别于2018年、2019年开展并完善总额预付制改革。改革后,基层卫生技术人员占比、医师日均诊疗人次及床位使用率总体呈增长趋势。两阶段政策改革后基层门急诊人次及其占比均呈增长趋势(P<0.05),第一阶段政策改革后出院人数及其占比显著增长(P<0.05)。结论：总额预付制促进了基层医疗服务供给增加,但仍存在门急诊服务量增长趋势平缓、住院服务量不合理增长的问题,第二阶段政策改革应进一步扩大总额预付改革成果。     

The Value of Medical Innovation Versus Industry Rewards

ObjectivesThis article provides systematic evidence on the share of the value of health generated by drugs and other healthcare goods and services that accrue to patients on the demand side versus the manufacturers on the supply side.MethodsWe exploit a large data set with > 9000 cost-effectiveness measures for various interventions, which we convert into measures of the shares of the value of improved health appropriated by the supply side using literature estimates of how patients value gains in health.ResultsWe find that if patients value a quality-adjusted life-year at $450 000 the median share appropriated for drugs on the supply side is approximately 6% and has declined at 0.1% per year between 1997 and 2019. This compares with other healthcare interventions, such as screenings or medical procedures, which have a median value of 9% but decline at 0.3% per year over the same period. If patients value a quality-adjusted life-year at $150 000, the median share appropriated for drugs and other healthcare interventions on the supply side is approximately 18% and 27%, respectively. Our estimates of appropriations are upper bounds, partly due to QALYs not capturing full producer value.ConclusionsMany policy debates center on the idea that the supply side is capturing too much of the value of the medical innovation that they generate. We find that, for these interventions, a large share of the value of medical innovation accrues to patients on the demand side given that the revenue to innovators is often far less than the patient’s value of these medical innovations.