我国卫生保健相对价格对人均卫生费用的影响研究：基于ARDL模型的分析

目的:深入研究卫生保健商品或服务的相对价格对人均卫生费用的短期与长期影响。方法:基于1986—2009年宏观时间序列数据,在考虑人均GDP、政府卫生投入等因素前提下,采用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)与误差修正模型(ECM)进行分析。结果与结论:⑴卫生保健商品相对价格对于人均实际卫生费用的影响要明显大于卫生保健服务相对价格和政府卫生投入比例增长率的影响;⑵相对于其他消费品,卫生保健商品相对价格的持续下降会促使人均实际卫生费用增长率也呈现下降趋势;卫生保健服务相对价格的下降可能会刺激人们卫生保健服务需求,提高实际人均卫生费用的增长率;⑶政府卫生投入比例的上升会导致实际人均卫生费用增长率增加,产生明显的正向效应。     

老年人群医疗服务利用公平性影响因素研究

目的:分析中国老年人医疗服务利用的公平性问题及其影响因素。方法:利用CHARLS 2013年全国调查数据,选取60岁及以上人群作为研究对象。通过集中指数和集中曲线分析老年人医疗服务利用是否存在不公平问题;通过集中指数分解法分析老年人医疗服务利用不公平的主要影响因素。结果:老年人门诊和住院服务利用的集中指数分别为0.0619和0.1050,集中曲线均位于绝对公平线的下方。通过集中指数分解法发现,对门诊服务利用集中指数贡献为正向且贡献率较大的因素为:家庭年人均消费性支出、退休金金额;贡献为负向且贡献率较大的因素为:新型农村合作医疗保险,躯体性日常生活能力PADL。对住院服务集中指数贡献为正向且贡献率较大的因素为:家庭年人均消费性支出、城镇职工基本医疗保险,贡献为负向且贡献率较大的因素为:新型农村合作医疗保险、躯体性日常生活能力PADL。门诊和住院服务利用水平的不公平指数(HI)分别为0.0739和0.1339,说明老年人门诊和住院服务利用存在不公平。结论:老年人医疗服务利用存在不公平问题,经济水平是不公平的第一位贡献因素,需要类因素、新型农村合作医疗保险可缩小不公平差距。     

Aggregation and the measurement of health care costs

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the extent to which the causes of variation in health care costs differ by the level at which observations are made. METHODS: More than 40 U.S. and international studies providing empirical estimates of the sources of variation in health care costs were reviewed and arrayed by size of observational units. A simplified graphical analysis demonstrating how estimated correlation coefficients change with the level and type of aggregation is presented. RESULTS: As the unit of observation becomes larger, association between health care costs and health status/morbidity becomes weaker and smaller in magnitude, while correlation with income (per capita GDP) becomes stronger and larger. Individual expenditure variation within a particular health care system is largely due to differences in health status, but across systems, morbidity has almost no effect on costs. For nations, differences in per capita income explain over 90 percent of the variation in both time series and cross section. CONCLUSIONS: Units of observation used for analysis of health care costs must be matched to the units at which decision making occurs. The observed pattern of empirical results is consistent with a multilevel allocative model incorporating aggregate capacity constraints. To the extent that macro constraints determine total budgets at the national level, policy interventions at the micro level (substitution of generic pharmaceuticals, use of CEA for allocation of treatments, controls on construction and technology, etc.) can act to improve efficiency, equity and average health status, but will not usually reduce aggregate average per capita costs of medical care.     

Health service use and age among the elderly]

The purpose of this study was to analyze differences in health service use among Japanese elderly by age group or by region through patient category, and to evaluate the impact of long-term elderly inpatient on the national health expenditure. We used a large scale data of 1993, based on medical fee claim records. Patient category was made by classifying elderly patients into 12 categories according to their annual inpatient, and outpatient days. Per capita health expenditure of the elderly changed according to age or region, and the main cause of this was the difference in percentage distribution of patient category, A typical example of those who use most of health services was the long-term inpatient, and both age difference and regional differences in per capita health expenditure of the elderly reduced remarkably by excluding such expenditure. Therefore, the impact of long-term elderly inpatient on the national health expenditure was already significant. In considering the effective use of health expenditure for the elderly, it is necessary to focus on those who use health service heavily, but at the same time it is also necessary to keep the entire patient population in mine.     

基于误差空间模型城乡居民医疗保健消费影响因素的实证分析

目的探讨影响城乡居民医疗保健消费的主要因素及两者差异。方法利用误差空间自回归模型,对2009年我国31个省域城乡居民医疗保健消费支出的影响因素进行实证分析。结果出院病人医药费、地方财政卫生支出、受教育年限是影响城镇居民消费的主要因素,而个人纯收入、地方财政卫生支出、受教育年限是影响农村居民消费的主要因素;地方财政卫生支出、受教育年限对城乡居民医疗保健消费的作用方向相反。结论要区别对待城乡居民的健康需求。     

Technical and cost efficiency of oral health care provision in Finnish health centres

In this study we measured the productive efficiency of public dental health provision across Finland. The analysis was based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) using linear programming. In addition, we investigated various factors explaining the technical and cost efficiency of public dental care using a parametric Tobit model. These analyses revealed substantial variation in productive efficiency between health centres in different municipalities. The level of cost inefficiency was generally between 20% and 30%. Good dental health of the population, high rates of unemployment and high per capita expenditure on primary care in the municipality were associated with technical and cost inefficiency. According to the results, cost efficiency would not be improved by shifting input allocation towards more auxiliary manpower in health centres. Individual efficiency scores were clearly sensitive to the choice of output specification. Changing the unit of output measurement from visit- to patient-based measures affected markedly the ranking of dental health centres. However, the set of exogenous correlates associated to inefficiency was strikingly similar for both types of output specification. More resources are needed if the coverage of public dental care is extended to all age groups. The health centre specific efficiency scores obtained in this study can be used locally to evaluate, design and implement structural changes in the production processes.     

An econometric analysis of health care expenditure: a cross-section study of the OECD countries

This paper is an empirical examination of the determinants of aggregate health care expenditure. The paper presents a systematic analysis of relationships across 19 OECD countries, showing the effects of aggregate income, institutional and socio-demographic factors on health care expenditure. The results indicate that institutional factors of the health systems, in addition to per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), contribute significantly to the explanation of the health care expenditure variation between countries; for example the way physicians in outpatient care are paid, and the mixture of public/private funding and inpatient/outpatient care.     

Technology as a 'major driver' of health care costs: a cointegration analysis of the Newhouse conjecture

Per capita real income on the demand-side and technological change, proxied by total R&D and health R&D spending, on the supply-side are hypothesized as major drivers of per capita real health care expenditure in the US during the 1960-1997 period. The findings are robust to a battery of unit root and cointegration tests. They support the Newhouse [Journal of Economic Perspectives 6 (1992) 3] conjecture that technological change is a major escalator of health care expenditure and confirm a significant and stable long-run relationship among per capita real health care expenditure, per capita real income and broad-based R&D expenditures. Policy implications are noted.     

Conversion factor instability in international comparisons of health care expenditure

Parkin, McGuire and Yule (1987) (hereafter PMY) report that a regression of per capita health care expenditure on per capita income using different conversion factors (exchange rates, GDP PPPs, health PPPs) gave rise to different results. In this note we apply updated data to the same empirical relationship. In contrast to PMY, we find no noticeable conversion factor instability in that relationship either with respect to the health care income elasticity or with the magnitude of multiple correlation coefficient.     

Tests of stationarity and cointegration of health care expenditure and gross domestic product

This study examines the long-run relationship among the per capita private, public, and total health care expenditure and per capita gross domestic product and population growth of Turkey. We find some evidence of multivariate cointegrating relationships among the health care expenditure and gross domestic product, and population growth. We further find a bivariate cointegrating relationship between private health care expenditure and per capita gross domestic product. Accordingly, a 10% increase in gross domestic product would translate into a 21.9% increase in total health care expenditure while controlling population growth. The income elasticity of health expenditure is found to be greater than 1, implying that health care is a luxury good in Turkey. Finally we note that there exists one-way causality running from per capita gross domestic product to various definitions of health care expenses.     

Border-crossing adjustment and personal health care spending by state

This article presents the results of a pioneering effort by the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) to measure interstate border crossing for services used by Medicare and non-Medicare beneficiaries. A major focus is to provide estimates of per capita expenditures by State for individual services. Such estimates are not possible without adjustment for interstate border-crossing flows. This is HCFA's first attempt to furnish a unified per capita personal health care expenditures data base comprising all services and covering total population. The study also analyzes interstate differences in expenditure flows by computing rates of inflow and outflow of expenditures, and highlights Medicare/non-Medicare flow differences.     

Effects of population aging on health care expenditure: myths and facts

Over the last 30 years, the elderly population of developed countries has shown an unprecedented increase. This process has raised alarm about the future affordability of health care systems. In this context, we consider the effects of population aging on health care expenditure within a process involving several elements: the increasing number of elderly persons, variations in the health status of the elderly and the evolution of the cost of medical treatment. The main conclusion is that only a small part of the increase in expenditure is due to population aging. Furthermore, because the average health status of the elderly has improved with greater longevity, we suggest that most of the increase in health care expenditure can be attributed to the evolution of non-demographic factors. Such as health services utilization, treatment cost and the development of new medical technology. Unlike populations aging, these factors can be subjected to future regulation and consequently, can to a large extent be controlled.     

Pooling international health care expenditure data.

The purpose of this paper is twofold. The first is to analyse the statistical relationship between real health care expenditure per capita and aggregate income, public share in finance, age-dependency ratio and inflation. The second purpose deals with methodological problems involved in pooling health care expenditure data. The empirical work is based on pooled cross-sectional, time-series data for 22 OECD countries from 1972 to 1987. Public finance share and inflation were found to be associated with lower per capita health care expenditure. No consistent correlation was found between the age-dependency ratio and health care expenditure. Contrary to results of earlier studies, we found that health care expenditure does not appear to be income (GDP) elastic. However, the results do not appear to be robust to changes in the time periods and countries included.     

2000-2018年我国城乡居民医疗保健支出公平性变化研究

目的:了解我国城乡及地区间医疗保健支出现状及差异性,分析我国城乡居民医疗保健支出的公平性,为我国医药卫生体制改革提供科学参考。方法:收集2000—2018年城乡医疗保健支出、人均可支配收入及人均纯收入等相关数据,采用集中指数和集中曲线对我国城乡医疗保健支出进行公平性分析。结果:2010—2018年城镇居民人均医疗保健支出(实际值)年平均增长速度为3.55%,农村居民人均医疗保健支出(实际值)年平均增长速度为10.00%。2000—2017年我国城镇居民人均医疗保健支出集中指数呈下降趋势,其中2006年出现最大值为0.1332,除2015—2017年外,其余年份差异均具有统计学意义(P<0.05);2000—2017年我国农村居民人均医疗保健支出集中指数呈下降趋势,2004年出现最大值为0.2522,差异均具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论:我国城乡人均医疗保健支出逐年增加,全国和各地区城乡人均医疗保健支出差距较大。我国城乡人均医疗保健支出存在不公平性,城镇人均医疗保健支出优于农村人均医疗保健支出,公平性逐渐趋好。     

Welfare State policies for equity

This article analyzes the evolution of public social expenditure in Spain from 1991 to 2000. It includes the analysis of the total public social expenditure as well as four of its components: sickness/health care, invalidity/old age, survivors, family/children. Expenditure is analyzed as a percentage of the GNP, and expenditure per capita in purchasing power units. This article shows that there has been an increase since 1993 in the deficit of the public expenditure on social protection in Spain representing a divergence from the average expenditure in the UE. The article also analyzes the development of care services (child care and services for dependent elderly), due their impact on gender inequalities.     

老年人卫生服务利用情况及影响因素分析

[目的]了解江西省60岁以上人群医疗服务利用情况及其影响因素，为卫生服务管理与决策提供依据。[方法]采用整群抽样，以家庭卫生服务调查表及问卷调查的方式对老年人的一般健康状况及卫生服务利用情况进行调查。[结果]老年人中两周就诊率7.01%，年住院率6.00%。城市老年患者主要选择县区级医院就诊，农村老年患者主要选择私人开业的医疗场所就诊，对社区卫生服务站的利用较低。人均住院费用占人均医疗总费用的79.49%。两周门诊就诊费用和住院费用都主要集中在县级医院和省级医院，占总各费用的81.01%和68.29%。[结论]医疗费用与经济收入成为影响老年人对卫生服务的合理利用的重要因素。完善医疗保障制度，积极开展社区卫生服务是解决老年人医疗保健问题的有效途径。     

Health care for the elderly: two cases of technology diffusion

Diffusion of medical technology and the growing proportion of elderly people in the population are generally regarded as major contributors to the increasing health care expenditure in the industrialised world. This study explores the importance of one specific factor in this process, the change in the use of technology among elderly patients. In some instances, a new technology is first used among younger patients and then gradually extended to the elderly. Two such cases are studied, both representing costly procedures: coronary bypass surgery (treatment of coronary heart disease) and dialysis (treatment of uraemia). In both cases, we demonstrate significant diffusion to older age groups. It is also tentatively concluded that the diffusion of technology could have an important effect on per capita health care expenditure among the oldest of the old.     

Regulatory factors of medical care expenditures for older people in Japan--analysis based on secondary medical care areas in Hokkaido

For the purpose of clarifying determinants of medical care expenditure for older people in Japan, we analyzed the data on medical care expenditure for older people in 21 secondary medical care areas in Hokkaido, the second largest island of Japan. The annual amount of medical expenditure per insured older person can be reduced into three components: annual number of medical care bills per insured older person days of hospitalization or visits per medical care bill and amount of medical expenditure per day and per insured older person. The 21 secondary medical care areas in Hokkaido showed large differences in per capita amount of both inpatient and outpatient medical expenditures for older people. Per capita inpatient medical expenditure for men and women correlated positively with the days of hospitalization per bill and the per capita number of inpatient medical care bills per year, but inversely with the per capita amount of expenditure per day of hospitalization. The same held true for outpatient medical expenditure for men, but for women outpatient medical expenditure correlated positively with all three components. Multiple regression analysis indicated the more powerful effects of medical care demand or supply on inpatient medical expenditure, on the other hand, not much powerful effects of every index were indicated on outpatient medical expenditure.     

安徽省肥西县农民医疗服务需求分析

为了解安徽省肥西县农民卫生服务需求状况 ,在肥西县卫生行政部门配合下分层整群抽取 4个乡镇 ,8个行政村 ,2 12户 ,调查人数为 10 82人。结果表明农民在村卫生室和乡卫生院就诊较高 ,分别为 38.1%和 34.6 % ;医疗费用的年人均支出占年人均纯收入的 8.5 5 % ;慢性非传染性疾病医疗费用支出占医疗费用总支出的比重很大。总之 ,肥西县农村的卫生服务需求不足 ,亟需提高农民的有效需求和医疗保健意识。同时应开展合作医疗 ,促进乡村一体化管理     

The impact of aging on health care expenditure in Sweden

This study measures the impact of aging on health care expenditure in Sweden in 1970-1985 and the projected impact for 1985-2005. In addition, the distribution of health care expenditure over different age groups is analysed. The study shows that changes in population aging account for barely 13% of the total increase in health care expenditure during the period 1970-1985, and that is the combined effect of changes in population aging plus the faster increase in health care expenditure per capita in older age groups that governs the development of an increasing concentration of health care expenditure to older age groups. During the period 1976-1985 the per capita health care expenditure increased modestly for the ages 0-74, but 54% for persons older than 74 years.