A Bayesian multinomial model to analyse spatial patterns of childhood co-morbidity in Malawi

Children in less developed countries die from relatively small number of infectious disease, some of which epidemiologically overlap. Using self-reported illness data from the 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey, we applied a random effects multinomial model to assess risk factors of childhood co-morbidity of fever, diarrhoea and pneumonia, and quantify area-specific spatial effects. The spatial structure was modelled using the conditional autoregressive prior. Various models were fitted and compared using deviance information criterion. Inference was Bayesian and was based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. We found spatial variation in childhood co-morbidity and determinants of each outcome category differed. Specifically, risk factors associated with child co-morbidity included age of the child, place of residence, undernutrition, bednet use and Vitamin A. Higher residual risk levels were identified in the central and southern–eastern regions, particularly for fever, diarrhoea and pneumonia; fever and pneumonia; and fever and diarrhoea combinations. This linkage between childhood health and geographical location warrants further research to assess local causes of these clusters. More generally, although each disease has its own mechanism, overlapping risk factors suggest that integrated disease control approach may be cost-effective and should be employed.     

A genetic stochastic process model for genome‐wide joint analysis of biomarker dynamics and disease susceptibility with longitudinal data

Unraveling the underlying biological mechanisms or pathways behind the effects of genetic variations on complex diseases remains one of the major challenges in the post‐GWAS (where GWAS is genome‐wide association study) era. To further explore the relationship between genetic variations, biomarkers, and diseases for elucidating underlying pathological mechanism, a huge effort has been placed on examining pleiotropic and gene‐environmental interaction effects. We propose a novel genetic stochastic process model (GSPM) that can be applied to GWAS and jointly investigate the genetic effects on longitudinally measured biomarkers and risks of diseases. This model is characterized by more profound biological interpretation and takes into account the dynamics of biomarkers during follow‐up when investigating the hazards of a disease. We illustrate the rationale and evaluate the performance of the proposed model through two GWAS. One is to detect single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) having interaction effects on type 2 diabetes (T2D) with body mass index (BMI) and the other is to detect SNPs affecting the optimal BMI level for protecting from T2D. We identified multiple SNPs that showed interaction effects with BMI on T2D, including a novel SNP rs11757677 in the CDKAL1 gene (P = 5.77 × 10^?7). We also found a SNP rs1551133 located on 2q14.2 that reversed the effect of BMI on T2D (P = 6.70 × 10^?7). In conclusion, the proposed GSPM provides a promising and useful tool in GWAS of longitudinal data for interrogating pleiotropic and interaction effects to gain more insights into the relationship between genes, quantitative biomarkers, and risks of complex diseases.     

Household sampling through geocoded points and satellite view: A step-by-step approach to implement a spatial sampling method for demographic and health surveys in areas without population sampling frame and with limited resource settings

IntroductionSpatial sampling is increasingly used in health surveys as it provides a simple way to randomly select target populations on sites where reliable and complete data on the general population are not available. However, the previously implemented protocols have been poorly detailed, making replication difficult or even impossible. To our knowledge, ours is the first document describing step-by-step an efficient spatial sampling method for health surveys. Our objective is to facilitate the rapid acquisition of the technical skills and know-how necessary for its deployment.MethodsThe spatial sampling design is based on the random generation of geocoded points in the study area. Afterwards, these points were projected on the satellite view of Google Earth Pro™ software and the identified buildings were selected for field visits. A detailed formula of the number of points required, considering non-responses, is proposed. Density of buildings was determined by drawing circles around points and by using a replacement strategy when interviewing was unachievable. The method was implemented for a cross-sectional study during the April-May 2016 period in Cotonou (Bénin). The accuracy of the collected data was assessed by comparing them to those of the Cotonou national census.ResultThis approach does not require prior displacement in the study area and only 1% of identified buildings with Google Earth Pro™ were no longer extant. Most of the measurements resulting from the general census were within the confidence intervals of those calculated with the sample data. Furthermore, the range of measurements resulting from the general census was similar to those calculated with the sample data. These include, for example, the proportion of the foreign population (unweighted 8.9%/weighted 9% versus 8.5% in census data), the proportion of adults over 17 years of age (56.7% versus 57% in census data), the proportion of households whose head is not educated (unweighted 21.9%/weighted 22.8% versus 21.1% in census data).ConclusionThis article illustrates how an epidemiological field survey based on spatial sampling can be successfully implemented at low cost, quickly and with little technical and theoretical knowledge. While statistically similar to simple random sampling, this survey method greatly simplifies its implementation.