Serum uric acid and long-term mortality from stroke, coronary heart disease and all causes.

BACKGROUND: Increased serum uric acid (SUA) levels are linked to obesity, dyslipidemia, diabetes and hypertension. Whether SUA carries a risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke remains uncertain. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. METHODS: Of an original cohort of middle-aged workers who were examined in 1963 and followed-up for 23 years, 9125 men, free of CHD at entry, are included in this study. Subjects were divided into quintiles according to baseline SUA levels. Hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause, CHD, and stroke mortality were estimated in SUA quintiles, with the third serving as a referent. RESULTS: During follow-up, 2893 deaths were recorded, including 830 ascribed to CHD and 292 to stroke. The HR for all death [1.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-1.37] and CHD (1.29, 95% CI 1.05-1.58) were increased in the upper SUA quintile. Fatal stroke showed a U-shaped relationship as both the upper (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.02-2.17) and bottom (HR 1.43, 95% CI 0.99-2.08) quintiles were associated with a higher risk. Adjustment for confounders reduced the HR of the upper quintile for all outcomes, but did not attenuate the association of the bottom quintile with stroke (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.04-2.23). When analysed separately by stroke type, the latter association seemed to be stronger for hemorrhagic (HR 3.27, 95% CI 1.14-9.33) than for ischemic stroke (HR 1.34, 95% CI 0.87-2.05). CONCLUSION: In addition to findings supporting increased mortality among hyperuricemic subjects, we identified an association between low SUA levels and fatal stroke, which deserves further investigation.     

Total cholesterol and mortality in the elderly

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate, at a population level, whether total cholesterol (TC) is a risk factor of mortality. To verify whether or not this is true for both genders. DESIGN: Population-based, long-lasting, prospective study. SETTING: Institutional epidemiology in primary care. SUBJECTS: A total of 3257 subjects aged 65-95 years, recruited from Italian general population. INTERVENTION: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Total cholesterol was measured, analysed as a continuous variable and then divided into quintiles and re-analysed. For each quintile, the multivariate relative risk (RR) of mortality adjusted for confounders was calculated in both genders. Stratification of mortality risk by TC quintiles, body mass index and cigarette smoking was also performed in both genders. RESULTS: Total cholesterol levels directly predicted coronary mortality in men [RR being in the fifth rather than in the first quintile: 2.40 (1.40-4.14)] and any other mortality in women. It also inversely predicted miscellaneous mortality in both genders. This trend was more evident when low cholesterol was associated with malnutrition or smoking. CONCLUSIONS: High TC remains a strong risk factor for coronary mortality in elderly men. On the other hand, having a very low cholesterol level does not prolong survival in the elderly; on the contrary, low cholesterol predicts neoplastic mortality in women and any other noncardiovascular mortality in both genders.     

A prospective study of anemia status, hemoglobin concentration, and mortality in an elderly cohort: the Cardiovascular Health Study

BACKGROUND: Anemia is viewed as a negative prognostic factor in the elderly population; its independent impact on survival is unclear. METHODS: Baseline hemoglobin quintiles and anemia, as defined by the World Health Organization criteria, were assessed in relation to mortality in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective cohort study with 11.2 years of follow-up of 5888 community-dwelling men and women 65 years or older, enrolled in 1989-1990 or 1992-1993 in 4 US communities. RESULTS: A total of 1205 participants were in the lowest hemoglobin quintile (<13.7 g/dL for men; <12.6 g/dL for women), and 498 (8.5%) were anemic (<13 g/dL for men; <12 g/dL for women). A reverse J-shaped relationship with mortality was observed; age-, sex-, and race-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval [CI]) in the first and fifth quintiles, compared with the fourth quintile, were 1.42 (95% CI, 1.25-1.62) and 1.24 (95% CI, 1.09-1.42). After multivariate adjustment, these hazard ratios were 1.33 (95% CI, 1.15-1.54) and 1.17 (95% CI, 1.01-1.36). The demographic- and fully-adjusted hazard ratios of anemia for mortality were 1.57 (95% CI, 1.38-1.78) and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.19-1.54). Adjustment for causes and consequences of anemia (renal function, inflammation, or frailty) did not reduce associations. CONCLUSIONS: Lower and higher hemoglobin concentrations and anemia by World Health Organization criteria were independently associated with increased mortality. The World Health Organization criteria did not identify risk as well as a lower hemoglobin value. Additional study is needed on the clinically valid definition for and causes of anemia in the elderly and on the increased mortality at the extremes of hemoglobin concentrations.     

Hemoglobin levels and coronary heart disease risk by age,race, and sex in the reasons for geographic and racial differences in stroke study (REGARDS)

Higher and lower hemoglobin concentrations are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD), but whether this risk is consistent across age, sex, and race is unclear. The Reasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study is an observational cohort study of 30 239 black, and white, adults aged 45 and older recruited 2003-7. Participants were included if they had hemoglobin measures, were CHD-free at baseline, and had all baseline variables. The primary outcome was incident CHD. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident CHD by hemoglobin concentration. This was expressed as a continuous variable and divided into age-, sex-, and race-specific quintiles. The 16 332 participants were included, contributing 114 362 person-years of follow-up and 915 incident CHD events. The mean age was 63 years, 35% were male, 41% were black, and the mean baseline hemoglobin was 13.6 g/dL (SD 1.4). A significant non-linear association between hemoglobin and CHD was identified (P < .001). This association differed significantly by race (P = .025) but not by sex or age. In whites, the risk for incident CHD was higher in the lowest (HR 2.28, 95% CI 1.61, 3.33) and highest (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.35, 2.79) hemoglobin quintiles relative to the third quintile. For blacks, only those in the lowest hemoglobin quintile had an increased risk for incident CHD events (HR 1.70, 95% CI 1.20, 2.41). Hemoglobin is an independent risk factor for CHD in whites and blacks but with different hemoglobin concentrations conferring different risks.     

Body mass index and mortality in elderly men and women from general population. The experience of Cardiovascular Study in the Elderly (CASTEL)

BACKGROUND: The role of body mass index (BMI) as a factor influencing longevity of the elderly subject is still under debate. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate at a population level whether or not BMI is a risk factor of mortality in the elderly, highlighting possible gender-related differences. METHODS: 3,282 Subjects aged 65-95 years, were recruited from an Italian general population and 12-year events were recorded. Blood tests and anthropometric measurements were performed. BMI as a continuous item was divided into quintiles and, for each quintile, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals for mortality was derived by classes of age and gender from Cox analysis. RESULTS: BMI inversely predicted overall and cancer mortality in men only. Overall mortality rate was 64.7% (HR = 1.63 [1.23-2.71]) in the 1st quintile of BMI, 54.9% (1.21 [0.92-1.73]) in the 2nd, 54.1% (1.20 [0.85-1.67]) in the 3rd, 53.3% (1.04 [0.82-1.32]) in the 4th and 52.5% in the 5th; cancer mortality rate was 23.1% (HR = 2.35 [1.31-4.23]), 14.2% (HR = 1.19 [0.65-1.80]), 15.8% (HR = 1.49 [0.93-2.39]), 15.8% (HR = 1.36 [0.84-2.16]) and 13.4%, respectively. The relationship between BMI and mortality remained significant only in men aged 76 years or less. No relationship was found between BMI and coronary or cerebrovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS: BMI <22.7 kg/m2 does not improve survival in the elderly, while it is an independent predictor of cancer mortality in men aged 相似文献   

Retinal vessel diameter and cardiovascular mortality: pooled data analysis from two older populations.

AIMS: The retinal microvasculature may reflect pre-clinical changes in the cerebral and coronary microcirculations. We assessed whether smaller retinal arterioles and larger venules predicted coronary heart disease (CHD)- and stroke-mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pooled data from the Beaver Dam Eye Study (n = 4926, aged 43-86) and the Blue Mountains Eye Study (n = 3654, aged 49-97). Retinal vessel diameters were measured from digitized retinal photographs. Change point models were used to assess and document the existence of threshold effects. We defined smaller arterioles as diameters within the narrowest quintile and larger venules as diameters within the widest quintile, with other quintiles as the reference. Of 8550 participants, 7494 (88%) with complete data were included, of whom 653 died from CHD and 299 from stroke over 10-12 years follow-up. After multivariable adjustment, each standard deviation (SD) increase in arteriolar diameter, or SD decrease in venular diameter, was not found to be significantly associated with either CHD-mortality or stroke-mortality. However, smaller arterioles [hazard ratio (HR) 1.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-1.62] and larger venules (HR 1.24, CI 1.02-1.52), predicted increased risk of CHD-mortality. These associations were mainly evident among persons aged 43-69 (smaller arterioles: HR 1.70, CI 1.27-2.28; larger venules: HR 1.41, CI 1.06-1.89). Smaller arterioles (HR 1.64, CI 1.00-2.67) and larger venules (HR 1.53, CI 0.94-2.47) were also associated with an increased risk of stroke-mortality among persons aged 43-69. CONCLUSION: Retinal vessel diameter may predict risk of CHD and stroke deaths in middle-aged persons.     

Linear relationship between blood pressure and stroke: the Jichi Medical School Cohort Study

Hypertension is a major risk for stroke; a linear or J-shaped relationship between blood pressure (BP) and stroke have been reported. The authors examined the relationship between systolic and diastolic BP and risk of stroke in the general population in Japan. The study included 11,097 men and women who were divided into quintiles by systolic BP and diastolic BP in each sex. Follow-up duration was 10.7 years. In men, risks of second to fifth quintiles of systolic BP for all stroke were 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7-3.0), 2.2 (CI, 1.2-4.2), 3.0 (CI, 1.7-5.5), and 4.2 (CI, 2.4-7.6) compared with a reference of the first quintile using Cox's proportional hazard model, respectively. In women, risk of second to fifth quintiles of systolic BP for all stroke were 1.2 (95% CI, 0.6-2.4), 1.5 (CI, 0.8-2.9), 2.2(CI, 1.2-4.1), and 3.1 (CI, 1.7-5.6), respectively. Systolic BP and diastolic BP were related to stroke incidence linearly in the general Japanese population. Systolic BP was slightly more predictive of the risk of stroke than diastolic BP.     

Heart rate recovery after treadmill exercise testing and risk of cardiovascular disease events (The Framingham Heart Study)

A delayed heart rate (HR) recovery after graded exercise testing has been associated with increased all-cause mortality in clinic-based samples. No prior study has examined the association of HR recovery after exercise with the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. We evaluated 2,967 Framingham study subjects (1,400 men, mean age 43 years) who were free of CVD and underwent a treadmill exercise test (Bruce protocol) at a routine examination. We examined the relations of HR recovery indexes (decrease in HR from peak exercise) to the incidence of a first CHD or CVD event and all-cause mortality, adjusting for established CVD risk factors. During follow-up (mean 15 years), 214 subjects experienced a CHD event (156 men), 312 developed a CVD event (207 men), and 167 died (105 men). In multivariable models, continuous HR recovery indexes were not associated with the incidence of CHD or CVD events, or with all-cause mortality. However, in models evaluating quintile-based cut points, the top quintile of HR recovery (greatest decline in HR) at 1-minute after exercise was associated with a lower risk of CHD (hazards ratio vs bottom 4 quintiles 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.32 to 0.93) and CVD (hazards ratio 0.61, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.93), but not all-cause mortality (hazards ratio 0.99, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.62). In our community-based sample, HR recovery indexes were not associated with all-cause mortality. A very rapid HR recovery immediately after exercise was associated with lower risk of CHD and CVD events. These findings should be confirmed in other settings.     

Depressive symptoms and development of coronary heart disease events: the Italian longitudinal study on aging

BACKGROUND: Studies on the association between depressive symptomatology (DS) and cardiovascular events and mortality in elderly persons have yielded contradictory findings. To address this issue, the authors assessed DS and an extensive array of sociodemographic, behavioral, and biological variables in the largest population-based sample of older Italians ever studied and analyzed their association with coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and total number of deaths. METHODS: This prospective, community-based cohort study included a sample of 5632 Italians, 65 years and older, who were recruited from the demographic registries of eight municipalities in Italy. Depressive symptomatology was assessed using the Geriatric Depression Scale, and a score > or =10 was used to indicate the presence of DS. All traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors were assessed at baseline, through questionnaires, blood tests, and physical examinations. The outcomes were CHD fatal and nonfatal events and total number of deaths. The association of the predictive variables with the outcomes was assessed using different Cox models. RESULTS: Baseline DS was associated with a higher incidence of fatal and nonfatal CHD events (hazard ratio [HR], 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-2.60) and with cardiovascular mortality in men (HR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.60-3.87) and with total mortality in men (HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.58-2.58) and women (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.04-1.95) at the 4-year follow-up assessment. This association was observed after adjusting for a vast array of potential confounding variables, including major chronic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Depressive symptomatology confers an increased risk for CHD in men and for total mortality in men and women but is not explained by health behaviors, social isolation, or biological or clinical determinants.     

Risk factors for mortality in middle-aged women

BACKGROUND: Many factors contribute to mortality in older women, but their relative importance and independent contribution have been poorly characterized. METHODS: From 1990 to 1992, we assessed demographics, lifestyle measures, prevalent disease, medication use, anthropometrics, vital signs, and physical function in 17 748 postmenopausal women. We used proportional hazards modeling to evaluate their association with mortality. RESULTS: During 9 years of follow-up, 1886 women (10.6%) died. The relative hazard (RH) of death was approximately 1.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-1.6) per 5 years of age, 1.4 (95% CI, 1.2-1.6) for a history of heart disease, and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.6-2.3) for a history of breast cancer. Modifiable risk factors associated with mortality included smoking (RH, 3.7 [95% CI, 3.1-4.5] for current smokers with a > or =50 pack-year history) and systolic blood pressure (RH, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.1-1.5], fifth vs first quintile). Elevated waist-hip ratio was associated with higher mortality (RH, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.1-1.5], fifth vs first quintile), but obesity was associated with lower mortality (RH, 0.7 [95% CI, 0.6-0.9] for body mass index [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters] of >35.0 vs 18.5-25.0). Poor results on the timed Up and Go Test, a measure of physical function, were also strongly associated with mortality (RH, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.4-2.0], fifth vs first quintile). CONCLUSIONS: Simple measures are sufficient to stratify postmenopausal women into groups at high and low risk of dying. Smoking, central obesity, blood pressure, and physical function are potentially modifiable risk factors, although clinical trials are required to demonstrate that change in these factors affects mortality.     

Triglyceride to High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio Predicts Cardiovascular Outcomes in Prevalent Dialysis Patients

Triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio, an indicator of atherogenic dyslipidemia, is a predictor of cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in the general population and has been correlated with atherosclerotic events. Whether the TG/HDL-C ratio can predict CV outcomes and survival in dialysis patients is unknown.We performed this prospective, observational cohort study and enrolled 602 dialysis patients (539 hemodialysis and 63 peritoneal dialysis) from a single center in Taiwan followed up for a median of 3.9 years. The outcomes were the occurrence of CV events, CV death, and all-cause mortality during follow-up. The association of baseline TG/HDL-C ratio with outcomes was explored with Cox regression models, which were adjusted for demographic parameters and inflammatory/nutritional markers.Overall, 203 of the patients experienced CV events and 169 patients died, of whom 104 died due to CV events. Two hundred fifty-four patients reached the composite CV outcome. Patients with higher TG/HDL-C levels (quintile 5) had a higher incidence of CV events (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19–3.47), CV mortality (adjusted HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.07–3.99), composite CV outcome (adjusted HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.37–3.55), and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.1–3.39) compared with the patients in quintile 1. However, in diabetic dialysis patients, the TG/HDL-C ratio did not predict the outcomes.The TG/HDL-C ratio is a reliable and easily accessible predictor to evaluate CV outcomes and survival in prevalent nondiabetic dialysis patients.ClinicalTrials.gov: {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01457625","term_id":"NCT01457625"}}NCT01457625     

Sex differences in risk for coronary heart disease mortality associated with diabetes and established coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND: The sex-specific independent effect of diabetes mellitus and established coronary heart disease (CHD) on subsequent CHD mortality is not known. METHODS: This is an analysis of pooled data (n = 5243) from the Framingham Heart Study and the Framingham Offspring Study with follow-up of 20 years. At baseline (1971-1975), 134 men and 95 women had diabetes, while 222 men and 129 women had CHD. Risk for CHD death was analyzed by proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, hypertension, serum cholesterol levels, smoking, and body mass index. The comparative effect of established CHD vs diabetes on the risk of CHD mortality was tested by testing the difference in log hazards. RESULTS: The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for death from CHD were 2.1 (95% CI, 1.3-3.3) in men with diabetes only, and 4.2 (95% CI, 3.2-5.6) in men with CHD only compared with men without diabetes or CHD. The HR for CHD death was 3.8 (95% CI, 2.2-6.6) in women with diabetes, and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.1-3.4) in women with CHD. The difference between the CHD and the diabetes log hazards was +0.73 (95% CI, 0.72-0.75) in men and -0.65 (95% CI, -0.68 to -0.63) in women. CONCLUSIONS: In men, established CHD signifies a higher risk for CHD mortality than diabetes. This is reversed in women, with diabetes being associated with greater risk for CHD mortality. Current treatment recommendations for women with diabetes may need to be more aggressive to match CHD mortality risk.     

Haemoglobin-related mortality in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions.

AIMS: It has recently been proposed that anaemia is an independent risk factor for development of cardiovascular disease in the general population. The impact of anaemia on long-term survival of patients with manifest coronary heart disease (CHD) has not been assessed so far. In this study, we examined the influence of haemoglobin concentrations on the outcome after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). METHODS AND RESULTS: In a retrospective cohort study, we analysed in-hospital and long-term mortality in all male patients admitted to our institution for elective PCI from 1998 to 1999. In 689 cases, complete follow-up information could be obtained (98.4%). Depending on their baseline haemoglobin, patients were divided in quintiles. In all subgroups, angiographic success after PCI (90-94%) was comparably high and in-hospital mortality was low (0-0.7%). During follow-up (median 697 days), patients in the lowest haemoglobin quintile (相似文献   

Pulse hypertension: a new component of the metabolic syndrome in elderly women?

The classification of arterial hypertension (HT) to define metabolic syndrome (MS) is unclear in that different cutoffs of blood pressure (BP) have been proposed. We evaluated the categorization of HT most qualified to define MS in relationship with coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality at a population level. A total of 3257 subjects aged > or =65 years were followed up for 12 years. MS was defined according to the criteria of the National Education Cholesterol Program using three different categories of HT: MS-1 (systolic blood pressure (SBP) > or =130 and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) > or =85 mm Hg), MS-2 (SBP > or =130 or DBP > or =85 mm Hg) and MS-3 (pulse pressure (PP) > or =75 mm Hg in men and > or =80 mm Hg in women). Gender-specific adjusted hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for CHD mortality was derived from Cox analysis in the three MS groups, both including and excluding antihypertensive treatment. In women with MS untreated for HT, the risk of CHD mortality was always significantly higher than in those without MS, independent of categorization; the HR of MS was 1.73 (CI 1.12-2.67) using MS-1, 1.75 (CI 1.10-2.83) using MS-2 and 2.39 (CI 3.71-1.31) using MS-3. In women with MS treated for HT, the HR of CHD mortality was significantly increased only in the MS-3 group (1.92, CI 1.1-2.88). MS did not predict CHD in men. In conclusion, MS can predict CHD mortality in elderly women with untreated HT but not in those with treated HT; in the latter, PP is the most predictive BP value.     

Associations between serum lipids and causes of mortality in a cohort of 3,499 urban Thais: The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) study

The association between serum lipids and mortality has not previously been established in Thailand. Baseline data from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) cohort study, plus a resurvey of the cohort 15 years later were analyzed. Participants were employees of EGAT: 2,702 men and 797 women. Total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) were taken as predictive variables; age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking, and body mass index were taken as confounders. Dependent variables were all-causes and specific causes of mortality over 17 years of follow-up. The major cause of death among men was cardiovascular disease (CVD); among women, it was cancer. Relative risks (RR) for specific causes of death, for a mmol/L increase in each lipid, were estimated after adjustment for confounding factors using Cox proportional hazards regression. TC and LDL-C were negatively associated with liver cirrhosis mortality, although it was likely that the low cholesterol concentration was a consequence of the disease. HDL-C was negatively associated with CVD mortality (RR = 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39-0.93), coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality (RR = 0.36; 95% CI, 0.17-0.75) and all cause-mortality (RR = 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54-0.87). TG was not associated with mortality. HDL-C is an important risk factor for CVD in middle-class urban Thais. Health promotion programs to improve lipid profiles, such as effective exercise campaigns and dietary advice, are required to increase HDL-C and to help prevent CVD and premature death in Thailand.     

The association of alcohol consumption with coronary heart disease mortality and cancer incidence varies by smoking history

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of alcohol on coronary heart disease (CHD), cancer incidence, and cancer mortality by smoking history. DESIGN/SETTING: A prospective, general community cohort was established with a baseline mailed questionnaire completed in 1986. Participants: A population-based sample of 41,836 Iowa women aged 55-69 years. MEASUREMENTS: Mortality (total, cancer, and CHD) and cancer incidence outcomes were collected through 1999. Relative hazard rates (HR) were calculated using Cox regression analyses. MAIN RESULTS: Among never smokers, alcohol consumption (> or =14 g/day vs none) was inversely associated with age-adjusted CHD mortality (HR, 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19 to 0.84) and total mortality (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.92). Among former smokers, alcohol consumption was also inversely associated with CHD mortality (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.23 to 0.88) and total mortality (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.97), but was positively associated with cancer incidence (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.51). Among current smokers, alcohol consumption was not associated with CHD mortality (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.50) or total mortality (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.92 to 1.25), but was positively associated with cancer incidence (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.54). CONCLUSIONS: Health behavior counseling regarding alcohol consumption for cardioprotection should include a discussion of the lack of a decreased risk of CHD mortality for current smokers and the increased cancer risk among former and current smokers.     

Alcohol consumption and cardiovascular mortality accounting for possible misclassification of intake: 11-year follow-up of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

AIMS: To investigate the relationship between usual daily alcohol intake, beverage type and drinking frequency on cardiovascular (CVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, accounting for systematic misclassification of intake. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study with mean follow-up of 11.4 years. Setting The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 38 200 volunteers (23 044 women) aged 40-69 years at baseline (1990-1994). MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported alcohol intake using beverage-specific quantity-frequency questions (usual intake) and drinking diary for previous week. FINDINGS: Compared with life-time abstention, usual daily alcohol intake was associated with lower CVD and CHD mortality risk for women but not men. For women, the hazard ratio [HR (95% CI)] for CVD for those drinking > 20 g/day alcohol was 0.43 (0.19-0.95; P trend = 0.18), and for CHD, 0.19 (0.05-0.82; P trend = 0.24). Male former drinkers had over twice the mortality risk for CVD [HR = 2.58 (1.51-4.41)] and CHD [HR = 2.91 (1.59-5.33)]. Wine was the only beverage associated inversely with mortality for women. Compared with drinkers who consumed no alcohol in the week before baseline, drinking frequency was associated inversely with CVD and CHD mortality risk for men but not women. HR for men drinking 6-7 days/week was 0.49 (0.29-0.81; P trend = 0.02) for CVD, and 0.49 (0.26-0.92: P trend = 0.23) for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: Usual daily alcohol intake was associated with reduced CVD and CHD mortality for women but not men. This benefit appeared to be mainly from wine, although comparison of beverages was not possible. Drinking frequency was associated inversely with CVD and CHD death for men but not women.     

Hormone replacement therapy and mortality in 52- to 70-year-old women: the Kuopio Osteoporosis Risk Factor and Prevention Study

OBJECTIVES: To analyze prospectively the association between hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and mortality in women before old age. DESIGN AND METHODS: A group of 11,667 women (91% of the age cohort of the area) aged 52-62 years from the population-based Kuopio Osteoporosis Risk Factor and Prevention Study were followed for 7 years in 1994-2001. Information about HRT use and health events was obtained from two repeated questionnaires in 1989 and 1994. Information about deaths and causes of death from the follow-up period was obtained from the Statistics Finland. Cox's proportional-hazards models were used to calculate risk of death related to the use of HRT. RESULTS: At the start of follow-up, 2203 women had used HRT > 5 years, 3945 women < or = 5 years and 5519 women had never used it. During the follow-up, 361 deaths occurred. Compared with non-users of HRT, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of death from any cause was 1.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-1.36) in women who used HRT < or = 5 years and 1.06 (95% CI 0.78-1.46) in women who used HRT > 5 years. The adjusted HR for coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in women who used HRT < or = 5 years was 0.79 (95% CI 0.36-1.73), and in women who used HRT > 5 years, 2.16 (95% CI 0.93-4.98). For breast cancer mortality the adjusted HR for < or = 5 years of HRT use was 0.96 (95% CI 0.32-2.82) and 2.62 (95% CI 0.98-7.00) for > 5 years of HRT use. CONCLUSIONS: History of HRT use does not affect overall or CHD mortality in women. More than 5 years of HRT use may increase the risk of breast cancer mortality.     

Body mass index and body fat distribution and new-onset atrial fibrillation: Substudy of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) study

Background and aimObesity is a recognized risk factor for new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). The association between body fat distribution, which is measured by body mass index (BMI) and waist–hip ratio (WHR), its changes, and new-onset AF is conflicting.Methods and resultsParticipants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition in Norfolk cohort study were included, with exclusion criteria of prevalent AF, rheumatic heart disease, and cancer. AF was confirmed by the International Classification of Diseases-10 hospital discharge code I48. Adjusted sex-specific Cox proportional hazards models were used to quantify the AF risk per 1 standard deviation increase and for quintiles of adiposity indices. A total of 10,885 men and 12,857 women were followed up for a median of 19 years, yielding 451,098 person-years. New-onset AF was diagnosed in 1408 (12.9%) men and 1102 (8.6%) women. Multivariable analyses showed that BMI predicted new-onset AF in all, while WHR predicted only in men. New-onset AF risk gradually increased across the range of adiposity indices: for men in the highest BMI quintile, HR: 1.59 (CI 1.32–1.91, p for trend<0.001), whereas for women in the highest BMI quintile, HR: 1.52 (CI 1.23–1.88, p for trend<0.001). Further, for men in the highest WHR quintile, HR: 1.31 (CI 1.09–1.57, p for trend: 0.01), whereas for women in the highest WHR quintile, HR: 1.12 (CI 0.90–1.41, p for trend: 0.17). The change in BMI and WHR was similar in participants with or without new-onset AF.ConclusionsAn increased body mass, as measured by BMI, is associated with an increased risk of developing new-onset AF. More abdominal fat distribution, as measured by WHR, is associated with an increased risk of developing new-onset AF in men but not in women.     

Heart rate-corrected QT interval prolongation predicts risk of coronary heart disease in black and white middle-aged men and women: the ARIC study

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to study the predictive value of heart rate-corrected QT interval (QTc) for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the black and white general population, and to validate various QT measurements. BACKGROUND: QTc prolongation is associated with higher risk of mortality in cardiac patients and in the general population. Little is known about the association with incident CHD. No previous studies included black populations. METHODS: We studied the predictive value of QTc prolongation in a prospective population study of 14,548 black and white men and women, age 45 to 64 year. QT was determined by the NOVACODE program in the digital electrocardiogram recorded at baseline. RESULTS: In quintiles of QTc, cardiovascular risk profile deteriorated with longer QTc, and risk of CHD and CVD mortality increased. The high risk in the upper quintile was mostly explained by the 10% with the longest QTc. The age-, gender-, and race-adjusted hazard ratios for CVD mortality and CHD in subjects with the longest 10% relative to the other 90% of the gender-specific QTc distribution were 5.13 (95% confidence interval 3.80 to 6.94) and 2.14 (95% confidence interval 1.71 to 2.69), respectively. The increased risk was partly, but not completely, attributable to other risk factors or the presence of chronic disease. The association was stronger in black than in white subjects. Manual- and machine-coded QT intervals were highly correlated, and the method of rate correction did not affect the observed associations. CONCLUSIONS: Long QTc is associated with increased risk of CHD and CVD mortality in black and white healthy men and women.