Excess All-Cause Deaths during Coronavirus Disease Pandemic,Japan, January–May 2020

To provide insight into the mortality burden of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, we estimated the excess all-cause deaths for each week during the pandemic, January–May 2020, by prefecture and age group. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models to vital statistics data. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the 1-sided prediction interval. A total of 208–4,322 all-cause excess deaths at the national level indicated a 0.03%–0.72% excess in the observed number of deaths. Prefecture and age structure consistency between the reported COVID-19 deaths and our estimates was weak, suggesting the need to use cause-specific analyses to distinguish between direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19.     

Coronavirus Disease Case Definitions,Diagnostic Testing Criteria,and Surveillance in 25 Countries with Highest Reported Case Counts

We compared case definitions for suspected, probable, and confirmed coronavirus disease (COVID-19), as well as diagnostic testing criteria, used in the 25 countries with the highest reported case counts as of October 1, 2020. Of the identified countries, 56% followed World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations for using a combination of clinical and epidemiologic criteria as part of the suspected case definition. A total of 75% of identified countries followed WHO recommendations on using clinical, epidemiologic, and diagnostic criteria for probable cases; 72% followed WHO recommendations to use PCR testing to confirm COVID-19. Finally, 64% of countries used testing eligibility criteria at least as permissive as WHO. We observed marked heterogeneity in testing eligibility requirements and in how countries define a COVID-19 case. This heterogeneity affects the ability to compare case counts, transmission, and vaccine effectiveness, as well as estimates derived from case surveillance data across countries.     

Effects of Coronavirus Disease Pandemic on Tuberculosis Notifications,Malawi

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic might affect tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and patient care. We analyzed a citywide electronic TB register in Blantyre, Malawi and interviewed TB officers. Malawi did not have an official COVID-19 lockdown but closed schools and borders on March 23, 2020. In an interrupted time series analysis, we noted an immediate 35.9% reduction in TB notifications in April 2020; notifications recovered to near prepandemic numbers by December 2020. However, 333 fewer cumulative TB notifications were received than anticipated. Women and girls were affected more (30.7% fewer cases) than men and boys (20.9% fewer cases). Fear of COVID-19 infection, temporary facility closures, inadequate personal protective equipment, and COVID-19 stigma because of similar symptoms to TB were mentioned as reasons for fewer people being diagnosed with TB. Public health measures could benefit control of both TB and COVID-19, but only if TB diagnostic services remain accessible and are considered safe to attend.     

Policy Review and Modeling Analysis of Mitigation Measures for Coronavirus Disease Epidemic Control,Health System,and Disease Burden,South Korea

We reviewed the timeline of key policies for control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and determined their impact on the epidemic and hospital burden in South Korea. Using a discrete stochastic transmission model, we estimated that multilevel policies, including extensive testing, contact tracing, and quarantine, reduced contact rates by 90% and rapidly decreased the epidemic in Daegu and nationwide during February‒March 2020. Absence of these prompt responses could have resulted in a >10-fold increase in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by May 15, 2020, relative to the status quo. The model suggests that reallocation of persons who have mild or asymptomatic cases to community treatment centers helped avoid overwhelming hospital capacity and enabled healthcare workers to provide care for more severely and critically ill patients in hospital beds and negative-pressure intensive care units. As small outbreaks continue to occur, contact tracing and maintenance of hospital capacity are needed.     

Coordinated Strategy for a Model-Based Decision Support Tool for Coronavirus Disease,Utah, USA

The coronavirus disease pandemic has highlighted the key role epidemiologic models play in supporting public health decision-making. In particular, these models provide estimates of outbreak potential when data are scarce and decision-making is critical and urgent. We document the integrated modeling response used in the US state of Utah early in the coronavirus disease pandemic, which brought together a diverse set of technical experts and public health and healthcare officials and led to an evidence-based response to the pandemic. We describe how we adapted a standard epidemiologic model; harmonized the outputs across modeling groups; and maintained a constant dialogue with policymakers at multiple levels of government to produce timely, evidence-based, and coordinated public health recommendations and interventions during the first wave of the pandemic. This framework continues to support the state’s response to ongoing outbreaks and can be applied in other settings to address unique public health challenges.     

Excess Deaths during Influenza and Coronavirus Disease and Infection-Fatality Rate for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, the Netherlands

Since the 2009 influenza pandemic, the Netherlands has used a weekly death monitoring system to estimate deaths in excess of expectations. We present estimates of excess deaths during the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and 10 previous influenza epidemics. Excess deaths per influenza epidemic averaged 4,000. The estimated 9,554 excess deaths (41% in excess) during the COVID-19 epidemic weeks 12–19 of 2020 appeared comparable to the 9,373 excess deaths (18%) during the severe influenza epidemic of 2017–18. However, these deaths occurred in a shorter time, had a higher peak, and were mitigated by nonpharmaceutical control measures. Excess deaths were 1.8-fold higher than reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths (5,449). Based on excess deaths and preliminary results from seroepidemiologic studies, we estimated the infection-fatality rate to be 1%. Monitoring of excess deaths is crucial for timely estimates of disease burden for influenza and COVID-19. Our data complement laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 death reports and enable comparisons between epidemics.     

Characteristics,Comorbidities, and Data Gaps for Coronavirus Disease Deaths,Tennessee, USA

As of March 2021, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) had led to >500,000 deaths in the United States, and the state of Tennessee had the fifth highest number of cases per capita. We reviewed the Tennessee Department of Health COVID-19 surveillance and chart-abstraction data during March 15‒August 15, 2020. Patients who died from COVID-19 were more likely to be older, male, and Black and to have underlying conditions (hereafter comorbidities) than case-patients who survived. We found 30.4% of surviving case-patients and 20.3% of deceased patients had no comorbidity information recorded. Chart-abstraction captured a higher proportion of deceased case-patients with >1 comorbidity (96.3%) compared with standard surveillance deaths (79.0%). Chart-abstraction detected higher rates of each comorbidity except for diabetes, which had similar rates among standard surveillance and chart-abstraction. Investing in public health data collection infrastructure will be beneficial for the COVID-19 pandemic and future disease outbreaks.     

Coronavirus Disease Spread during Summer Vacation,Israel, 2020

The relative increase in coronavirus disease incidence during summer 2020 in Israel was most prominent in young children. This finding contrasts with the lower increase in incidence observed in children than in adults during the school attendance period. School closure without lockdown conditions might not be independently effective at reducing spread.     

Epidemiologic Findings from Case Investigations and Contact Tracing for First 200 Cases of Coronavirus Disease,Santa Clara County,California, USA

In January 2020, Santa Clara County, California, USA, began identifying laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease among residents. County staff conducted case and contact investigations focused on households and collected detailed case demographic, occupation, exposure, and outcome information. We describe the first 200 test-positive cases during January 31–March 20, 2020, to inform future case and contact investigations. Probable infection sources included community transmission (104 cases), known close contact with a confirmed case-patient (66 cases), and travel (30 cases). Disease patterns across race and ethnicity, occupational, and household factors suggested multiple infection risk factors. Disproportionately high percentages of case-patients from racial and ethnic subgroups worked outside the home (Hispanic [86%] and Filipino [100%]); household transmission was more common among persons from Vietnam (53%). Even with the few initial cases, detailed case and contact investigations of household contacts capturing occupational and disaggregated race and ethnicity data helped identify at-risk groups and focused solutions for disease control.     

Outbreak of Mucormycosis in Coronavirus Disease Patients,Pune, India

We provide an overview of the epidemiology and clinical course of mucormycosis in the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic era. We conducted a retrospective chart review of 178 patients with clinical or diagnostic, endoscopically or histopathologically confirmed rhino-sino-orbital or cerebral mucormycosis after COVID-19 treatment during the second wave of COVID-19 in Pune, India. Median time to symptom onset from COVID-19 detection was 28 days. Moderate or severe COVID-19 was seen in 73% of patients and diabetes in 74.2%. A total of 52.8% received steroids. Eschar over or inside the nose was seen in 75%, but baseline clinical and laboratory parameters were mostly unremarkable. Bone penetration was present in ≈90% of cases, 30% had soft-tissue swelling of the pterygopalatine fossa and 7% had cavernous sinus thrombosis, and 60% had multifocal mucormycosis. Of the 178 study cases, 151 (85%) underwent surgical debridement. Twenty-six (15%) died, and 16 (62%) of those had multifocal mucormycosis.     

Coronavirus Antibody Responses before COVID-19 Pandemic,Africa and Thailand

Prior immune responses to coronaviruses might affect human SARS-CoV-2 response. We screened 2,565 serum and plasma samples collected from 2013 through early 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic began, from 2,250 persons in 4 countries in Africa (Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda) and in Thailand, including persons living with HIV-1. We detected IgG responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) subunit 2 protein in 1.8% of participants. Profiling against 23 coronavirus antigens revealed that responses to S, subunit 2, or subunit 1 proteins were significantly more frequent than responses to the receptor-binding domain, S-Trimer, or nucleocapsid proteins (p<0.0001). We observed similar responses in persons with or without HIV-1. Among all coronavirus antigens tested, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus antibody responses were much higher in participants from Africa than in participants from Thailand (p<0.01). We noted less pronounced differences for endemic coronaviruses. Serosurveys could affect vaccine and monoclonal antibody distribution across global populations.     

Serologic Screening of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection in Cats and Dogs during First Coronavirus Disease Wave,the Netherlands

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can infect many animal species, including minks, cats, and dogs. To gain insights into SARS-CoV-2 infections in cats and dogs, we developed and validated a set of serologic assays, including ELISA and virus neutralization. Evaluation of samples from animals before they acquired coronavirus disease and samples from cats roaming SARS-CoV-2–positive mink farms confirmed the suitability of these assays for specific antibody detection. Furthermore, our findings exclude SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein as an antigen for serologic screening of cat and dog samples. We analyzed 500 serum samples from domestic cats and dogs in the Netherlands during April–May 2020. We showed 0.4% of cats and 0.2% of dogs were seropositive. Although seroprevalence in cats and dogs that had unknown SARS-CoV-2 exposure was low during the first coronavirus disease wave, our data stress the need for development of continuous serosurveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in these 2 animal species.     

Coronavirus Disease Contact Tracing Outcomes and Cost,Salt Lake County,Utah, USA,March–May 2020

Outcomes and costs of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) contact tracing are limited. During March–May 2020, we constructed transmission chains from 184 index cases and 1,499 contacts in Salt Lake County, Utah, USA, to assess outcomes and estimate staff time and salaries. We estimated 1,102 staff hours and $29,234 spent investigating index cases and contacts. Among contacts, 374 (25%) had COVID-19; secondary case detection rate was ≈31% among first-generation contacts, ≈16% among second- and third-generation contacts, and ≈12% among fourth-, fifth-, and sixth-generation contacts. At initial interview, 51% (187/370) of contacts were COVID-19–positive; 35% (98/277) became positive during 14-day quarantine. Median time from symptom onset to investigation was 7 days for index cases and 4 days for first-generation contacts. Contact tracing reduced the number of cases between contact generations and time between symptom onset and investigation but required substantial resources. Our findings can help jurisdictions allocate resources for contact tracing.     

Pandemic or Panzootic—A Reflection on Terminology for SARS-CoV-2 Infection

As of October 2022, a total of 675 natural outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection have occurred in animal species worldwide. Here, we provide a linguistic and etymologic critique of the term “pandemic” being used to describe the COVID-19 health crisis, as opposed to the term “panzootic,” and discuss policy ramifications of more inclusive terminology.     

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies after First 6 Months of COVID-19 Pandemic,Portugal

In September 2020, we tested 13,398 persons in Portugal for antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 by using a quota sample stratified by age and population density. We found a seroprevalence of 2.2%, 3–4 times larger than the official number of cases at the end of the first wave of the pandemic.     

Reassessing Reported Deaths and Estimated Infection Attack Rate during the First 6 Months of the COVID-19 Epidemic,Delhi, India

India reported >10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission model fit to data from 3 serosurveys in Delhi and time-series documentation of reported deaths. We estimated 48.7% (95% credible interval 22.1%–76.8%) cumulative infection in the population through the end of September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries, we estimated that just 15.0% (95% credible interval 9.3%–34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths had been reported, indicating either substantial underreporting or lower age-specific infection-fatality ratios in India than in high-income countries. Despite the estimated high attack rate, additional epidemic waves occurred in late 2020 and April–May 2021. Future dynamics will depend on the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and their effectiveness against new variants.     

Use of Genomics to Track Coronavirus Disease Outbreaks,New Zealand

Real-time genomic sequencing has played a major role in tracking the global spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), contributing greatly to disease mitigation strategies. In August 2020, after having eliminated the virus, New Zealand experienced a second outbreak. During that outbreak, New Zealand used genomic sequencing in a primary role, leading to a second elimination of the virus. We generated genomes from 78% of the laboratory-confirmed samples of SARS-CoV-2 from the second outbreak and compared them with the available global genomic data. Genomic sequencing rapidly identified that virus causing the second outbreak in New Zealand belonged to a single cluster, thus resulting from a single introduction. However, successful identification of the origin of this outbreak was impeded by substantial biases and gaps in global sequencing data. Access to a broader and more heterogenous sample of global genomic data would strengthen efforts to locate the source of any new outbreaks.     

Symptom Diary–Based Analysis of Disease Course among Patients with Mild Coronavirus Disease,Germany, 2020

Limited information is available on the clinical course of outpatients with mild coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This information is critically important to inform public health prevention strategies and to provide anticipatory guidance to patients, primary care providers, and employers. We retrospectively assessed the daily prevalence of symptoms in 313 COVID-19 outpatients for the first 20 days of illness. Generalized estimating equations were used to assess the probability of symptom occurrence over time. Fatigue (91%), cough (85%), and headache (78%) were the most common symptoms and occurred a median of 1 day from symptom onset. Neurologic symptoms, such as loss of taste (66%) and anosmia (62%), and dyspnea (51%) occurred considerably later (median 3–4 days after symptom onset). Symptoms of COVID-19 are similar to those of other respiratory pathogens, so symptomatic patients should be tested more frequently for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 during influenza season to prevent further spread of COVID-19.