Smoking as a confounder in ecologic correlations of cancer mortality rates with average county radon levels

Cohen has reported a negative correlation between lung cancer mortality and average radon levels by county. In this paper, the correlation of U.S. county mortality rates for various types of cancers during the period 1970-1994 with Cohen's radon measurements is examined. In general, quantitatively similar, strongly negative correlations are found for cancers strongly linked to cigarette smoking, weaker negative correlations are found for cancers moderately increased by smoking, whereas no such correlation is found for cancers not linked to smoking. The results indicate that the negative trend previously reported for lung cancer can be largely accounted for by a negative correlation between smoking and radon levels across counties. Hence, the observed ecological correlation provides no substantial evidence for a protective effect of low level radon exposure.     

A test of the linear-no threshold theory of radiation carcinogenesis

It has been pointed out that, while an ecological study cannot determine whether radon causes lung cancer, it can test the validity of a linear-no threshold relationship between them. The linear-no threshold theory predicts a substantial positive correlation between the average radon exposure in various counties and their lung cancer mortality rates. Data on living areas of houses in 411 counties from all parts of the United States exhibit, rather, a substantial negative correlation with the slopes of the lines of regression differing from zero by 10 and 7 standard deviations for males and females, respectively, and from the positive slope predicted by the theory by at least 16 and 12 standard deviations. When the data are segmented into 23 groups of states or into 7 regions of the country, the predominantly negative slopes and correlations persist, applying to 18 of the 23 state groups and 6 of the 7 regions. Five state-sponsored studies are analyzed, and four of these give a strong negative slope (the other gives a weak positive slope, in agreement with our data for that state). A strong negative slope is also obtained in our data on basements in 253 counties. A random selection-no charge study of 39 high and low lung cancer counties (+4 low population states) gives a much stronger negative correlation. When nine potential confounding factors are included in a multiple linear regression analysis, the discrepancy with theory is reduced only to 12 and 8.5 standard deviations for males and females, respectively. When the data are segmented into four groups by population, the multiple regression vs radon level gives a strong negative slope for each of the four groups. Other considerations are introduced to reduce the discrepancy, but it remains very substantial. Since cigarette sales data are available only on a statewide basis, mean radon data for states are analyzed. The linear regression for lung cancer rates vs radon levels is also negative and has a much steeper slope than that for the county data. When cigarette sales per capita is introduced into the regression, the negative slope for dependence on radon level is essentially unchanged.     

The residential radon-lung cancer association in U.S. counties: a commentary

There is little doubt that underground miners exposed to radon and its progeny have increased rates of lung cancer. Residential radon exposures should carry a possibly smaller risk of increased cancer. When it became possible to collect radon data in a large number of U.S. homes and the data were aggregated by counties, the apparent association with lung cancer was a negative one, even when many other variables were taken into account. Residential radon levels are higher in suburban residences leading to a negative association with population density. Population density is strongly positively associated with lung cancer. It follows that aggregate residential radon and lung cancer rates should be negatively associated for reasons having nothing to do with the possibility of radon being carcinogenic to the lung. A second problem presented by the data is the one of sampling bias since the county lung cancer data are from the whole county population, but only a few residences are tested. Examples of other inherent associations in environmental epidemiology are cited. One strategy is to study areas of the same population density but with radon exposure gradients. This is approximated by choice of rural high radon states. Counties in such states have weak and inconsistent associations between radon and lung cancer, some of which are positive. I conclude that counties are generally inappropriate units for study of radon and lung cancer associations.     

Residential radon exposure and lung cancer risk: commentary on Cohen's county-based study

The large United States county-based study () in which an inverse relationship has been suggested between residential low-dose radon levels and lung cancer mortality has been reviewed. While this study has been used to evaluate the validity of the linear nonthreshold theory, the grouped nature of its data limits the usefulness of this application. Our assessment of the study's approach, including a reanalysis of its data, also indicates that the likelihood of strong, undetected confounding effects by cigarette smoking, coupled with approximations of data values and uncertainties in accuracy of data sources regarding levels of radon exposure and intensity of smoking, compromises the study's analytic power. The most clear data for estimating lung cancer risk from low levels of radon exposure continue to rest with higher-dose studies of miner populations in which projections to zero dose are consistent with estimates arising from most case-control studies regarding residential exposure.     

A review of residential radon case-control epidemiologic studies performed in the United States.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in the United States for both men and women. Although most lung cancer deaths are attributable to tobacco usage, even secondary causes of lung cancer are important because of the magnitude of lung cancer incidence and its poor survival rate. This review summarizes the basic features and major findings from the published U.S. large-scale residential radon case-control studies performed in New Jersey, Iowa, and Missouri (two studies). The methodology from an unpublished study covering Connecticut, Utah, and Southern Idaho is also presented. Overall, the higher categorical risk estimates for these published studies produced a positive association between prolonged radon exposure and lung cancer. Two studies (Missouri-II and Iowa) that incorporated enhanced dose estimates produced the most compelling evidence suggesting an association between prolonged residential radon exposure and lung cancer. The prevailing evidence suggests that the statistically significant findings may be related to improved retrospective radon exposure estimates. The general findings from the U.S. studies, along with extrapolations from radon-exposed underground miners, support the conclusion that after cigarette smoking, prolonged residential radon exposure is the second leading cause of lung cancer in the general population.     

Canadian individual risks of radon-induced lung cancer for different exposure profiles

BACKGROUND: Indoor radon has been determined to be the second leading cause of lung cancer after tobacco smoking. There is an increasing need among radiation practitioners to have numerical values of lung cancer risks for men and women, ever-smokers and never-smokers exposed to radon in homes. This study evaluates individual risks for the Canadian population exposed to radon in homes at different radon concentrations and for different periods of their lives. METHODS: Based on the risk model developed recently by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), individual risks of radon-induced lung cancers are calculated with Canadian age-specific rates for overall and lung cancer mortalities (1996-2000) as well as the Canadian smoking prevalence data in 2002. RESULTS: Convenient tables of lifetime relative risks are constructed for lifetime exposures and short exposures between any two age intervals from 0 to 110, and for various radon concentrations found in homes from 50 to 1000 Bq/m3. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of developing lung cancer from residential radon exposure increases with radon concentration and exposure duration. For short exposure periods, such as 10 or 20 years, risks are higher in middle age groups (30-50) compared especially to the later years. Individuals could lower their risks significantly by reducing radon levels earlier in life. The tables could help radiation protection practitioners to better communicate indoor radon risk to members of the public.     

Health effects in underground uranium miners

The health effects associated with uranium miners have received much attention in the last 30 years. Although mortality rates are elevated for such causes as accidents and nonmalignant respiratory disease, lung cancer caused by exposure to radon decay products is the primary hazard to underground uranium miners. This review summarizes studies of eight cohorts of radium miners, and examines several pooled analyses that provide the best understanding of the radon/lung cancer relationship. The relative risk of lung cancer is linearly related to cumulative exposure to radon decay products. The excess relative risk decreases with attained age and time since exposure. An inverse exposure-rate effect exists, such that prolonged exposure at low levels of radon is more hazardous than shorter exposures to higher levels. The linear no-threshold model used in most epidemiologic studies has been attacked by some as overestimating risk at indoor radon levels. These arguments are rejected by this reviewer.     

Silicosis and lung cancer in U.S. metal miners

The association between silicosis and lung cancer mortality was estimated in 9,912 (369 silicotics and 9,543 nonsilicotics) white male metal miners. These miners were examined by the U.S. Public Health Service during 1959-1961 and were followed through 1975. Miners were excluded from this study if they were employed in a mine during 1959-1961 that used diesel equipment underground. The ores that were mined consisted of copper, lead-zinc, iron, mercury, lead silver, gold and gold-silver, tungsten, and molybenum. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR, U.S. white male rates) for lung cancer was 1.73 (95% CI: .94-2.90) in silicotics and 1.18 (95% CI: .98-1.42) in nonsilicotics. Additionally, SMRs were higher in silicotics than in nonsilicotics, even in most subgroups stratified by cigarette smoking habit, type of ore mined, years of service in an underground job, radon exposure group, or year of hire. When lung cancer mortality between silicotics and nonsilicotics was compared, the age-adjusted rate ratio (95% CI) was 1.56 (.91-2.68), and the age- and smoking-adjusted rate ratio was 1.96 (.98-3.67). Corresponding figures for miners who were employed in mines with low levels of radon exposure were 1.90 (.98-3.67) and 2.59 (1.44-4.68), respectively. These findings indicate that lung cancer mortality risk was increased in silicotics, and this probably did not result from chance or bias. However, confounding from radon exposure could not be ruled out. The findings indicate that further follow-up of this cohort is needed.     

Modeling joint exposures and health outcomes for cumulative risk assessment: the case of radon and smoking

Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case example, given its large attributable risk, effect modification due to smoking, and significant variability in radon concentrations and smoking patterns. In spite of this fact, no study to date has estimated geographic and sociodemographic patterns of both radon and smoking in a manner that would allow for inclusion of radon in community-based cumulative risk assessment. In this study, we apply multi-level regression models to explain variability in radon based on housing characteristics and geological variables, and construct a regression model predicting housing characteristics using U.S. Census data. Multi-level regression models of smoking based on predictors common to the housing model allow us to link the exposures. We estimate county-average lifetime lung cancer risks from radon ranging from 0.15 to 1.8 in 100, with high-risk clusters in areas and for subpopulations with high predicted radon and smoking rates. Our findings demonstrate the viability of screening-level assessment to characterize patterns of lung cancer risk from radon, with an approach that can be generalized to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors.     

Epidemiological associations among lung cancer,radon exposure and elevation above sea level--a reassessment of Cohen''s county level radon study

Inhalation of radon (222Rn) decay products by persons living in homes has been associated with increased risk of lung cancer. Some epidemiological studies have shown a positive association between radon exposure and lung cancer rates. However, a large U.S.-wide ecological study (Cohen 1995) has shown a clear inverse association between average county radon concentration in homes and average lung cancer rates in the county. Cohen's strong inverse association between radon and lung cancer is surprising since there is no plausible biological reason for an inverse causal relationship between the two. We plot the county average lung cancer rate vs. the elevation above sea level (altitude) and show an inverse association between county average lung cancer rate and elevation. The elevation used for each county is the altitude of the most populous place in the county. We postulate that the decrease in lung cancer rates with higher elevations is caused by the carcinogenic effect of higher absolute oxygen concentration in the inspired air at lower elevations. Stratifying Cohen's lung cancer vs. radon data into ten groups of counties with similar elevations removes some, but not all, of his inverse association between radon and lung cancer.     

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's assessment of risks from indoor radon

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has updated its assessment of health risks from indoor radon, which has been determined to be the second leading cause of lung cancer after cigarette smoking. This risk assessment is based primarily on results from a recent study of radon health effects (BEIR VI) by the National Academy of Sciences. In BEIR VI, the National Academy of Sciences fit empirical risk models to data from 11 cohorts of miners, and estimated that each year about 20,000 lung cancer deaths in the U.S. are radon related. A summary, abstracted from the technical report, is given of the EPA's risk assessment results and methods, including some modifications and extensions to the approach used in BEIR VI. Results include numerical estimates of lung cancer deaths per unit exposure, which had not been provided in BEIR VI.     

Effects of radon mitigation vs smoking cessation in reducing radon-related risk of lung cancer.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this paper is to provide smokers with information on the relative benefits of mitigating radon and quitting smoking in reducing radon-related lung cancer risk. METHODS: The standard radon risk model, linked with models characterizing residential radon exposure and patterns of moving to new homes, was used to estimate the risk reduction produced by remediating high-radon homes, quitting smoking, or both. RESULTS: Quitting smoking reduces lung cancer risk from radon more than does reduction of radon exposure itself. CONCLUSIONS: Smokers should understand that, in addition to producing other health benefits, quitting smoking dominates strategies to deal with the problem posed by radon.     

Estimated risks of radon-induced lung cancer for different exposure profiles based on the new EPA model

Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas. When inhaled, radon can cause mutations that lead to lung cancer. Some new epidemiologic studies indicate that indoor radon is a public health problem. The BEIR VI report outlined its preferred two risk models for the combined effects of smoking and exposure to radon progeny, and listed the estimated risk to ever-smokers and never-smokers of both sexes due to lifetime exposure. However, exposures for shorter periods of time are of practical interest since exposure to elevated levels of radon may occur and end at any age. This study aims to produce practical tables of lifetime relative risks for exposures between any two age intervals from 0 to 110, and for various radon concentrations found in homes from 100 to 1,000 Bq m(-3). The calculations are based on the risk model developed recently by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The EPA's risk model is a single model that gives risk values midway between those obtained from the two BEIR VI preferred models. The detailed tables provide a clearer view of the age groups at higher risk and the effect of exposure duration. The results will help radiation protection practitioners to better communicate indoor radon risk to members of the public.     

Does falling smoking lead to rising obesity?

The strong negative correlation over time between smoking rates and obesity have led some to suggest that reduced smoking is increasing weight gain in the U.S. This conclusion is supported by the findings of Chou et al. [Chou, S.-Y., Grossman, M., Saffer, H., 2004. An economic analysis of adult obesity: results from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system. Journal of Health Economics 23, 565-587], who conclude that higher cigarette prices lead to increased body weight. We investigate this issue and find no evidence that reduced smoking leads to weight gain. Using the cigarette tax rather than the cigarette price and controlling for non-linear time effects, we find a negative effect of cigarette taxes on body weight, implying that reduced smoking leads to lower body weights. Yet our results, as well as Chou et al., imply implausibly large effects of smoking on body weight. Thus, we cannot confirm that falling smoking leads in a major way to rising obesity rates in the U.S.     

Latency and the lung cancer epidemic among United States uranium miners

The latency of occupational cancer was a key factor in the recent epidemic of lung cancer among U.S. uranium miners. A review of the epidemic and analysis of latency periods with a near lifetime follow-up found that among former and nonsmokers, the mean mid-induction latent period is nearly a constant at about 25 y, regardless of age at starting or magnitude of exposure. Among cigarette smokers, the mean is shorter (about 19 y). It is not influenced by age at start of smoking, amount smoked, or magnitude of exposure, but there is a marked shortening as the age at start of radiation exposure rises. These latency variables affect lifetime risk models. By disregarding the European radon mine exposures and waiting for strong evidence of lung cancer among U.S. uranium miners (ignoring the exposures occurring while waiting during the latency period), the epidemic became inevitable.     

Predicted reduction in lung cancer risk following cessation of smoking and radon exposure

Recently there has been considerable public and regulatory concern that radon, produced by the decay of naturally occurring uranium, can accumulate in homes, offices, and schools at levels that may substantially increase the risk of lung cancer. The major cause of lung cancer is smoking, and radon appears to interact multiplicatively with smoking in causing lung cancer. Thus, the most effective way to reduce the increased risk of lung cancer resulting from radon exposure is to cease smoking. In this paper, a model for the risks associated with radon exposure that was developed by a committee of the National Academy of Sciences is used to calculate the benefits, in terms of reduction in lifetime risk of lung cancer, of ceasing to smoke, ceasing radon exposure, or ceasing both. Ceasing to smoke is considerably more beneficial than ceasing radon exposure, and thus policymakers addressing the health effects of radon should place priority on encouraging individuals to stop smoking.     

吸烟与氡暴露致肺癌的流行病学和生物学差异

吸烟和氡暴露是导致肺癌的两个主要危险因素。本文从流行病学和生物学分子效应两个方面,总结了吸烟和氡暴露致肺癌的近期研究结果,比较了二者的人群和生物学差异,并提出了今后的研究建议。     

Residential radon exposure and lung cancer: variation in risk estimates using alternative exposure scenarios

The most direct way to derive risk estimates for residential radon progeny exposure is through epidemiologic studies that examine the association between residential radon exposure and lung cancer. However, the National Research Council concluded that the inconsistency among prior residential radon case-control studies was largely a consequence of errors in radon dosimetry. This paper examines the impact of applying various epidemiologic dosimetry models for radon exposure assessment using a common data set from the Iowa Radon Lung Cancer Study (IRLCS). The IRLCS uniquely combined enhanced dosimetric techniques, individual mobility assessment, and expert histologic review to examine the relationship between cumulative radon exposure, smoking, and lung cancer. The a priori defined IRLCS radon-exposure model produced higher odds ratios than those methodologies that did not link the subject's retrospective mobility with multiple, spatially diverse radon concentrations. In addition, the smallest measurement errors were noted for the IRLCS exposure model. Risk estimates based solely on basement radon measurements generally exhibited the lowest risk estimates and the greatest measurement error. The findings indicate that the power of an epidemiologic study to detect an excess risk from residential radon exposure is enhanced by linking spatially disparate radon concentrations with the subject's retrospective mobility.     

Clinical measures, smoking, radon exposure, and risk of lung cancer in uranium miners.

OBJECTIVES: Exposure to the radioactive daughters of radon is associated with increased risk of lung cancer in mining populations. An investigation of incidence of lung cancer following a clinical survey of Ontario uranium miners was undertaken to explore whether risk associated with radon is modified by factors including smoking, radiographic silicosis, clinical symptoms, the results of lung function testing, and the temporal pattern of radon exposure. METHODS: Miners were examined in 1974 by a respiratory questionnaire, tests of lung function, and chest radiography. A random selection of 733 (75%) of the original 973 participants was followed up by linkage to the Ontario Mortality and Cancer Registries. RESULTS: Incidence of lung cancer was increased threefold. Risk of lung cancer among miners who had stopped smoking was half that of men who continued to smoke. There was no interaction between smoking and radon exposure. Men with lung function test results consistent with airways obstruction had an increased risk of lung cancer, even after adjustment for cigarette smoking. There was no association between radiographic silicosis and risk of lung cancer. Lung cancer was associated with exposures to radon daughters accumulated in a time window four to 14 years before diagnosis, but there was little association with exposures incurred earlier than 14 years before diagnosis. Among the men diagnosed with lung cancer, the mean and median dose rates were 2.6 working level months (WLM) a year and 1.8 WLM/year in the four to 14 year exposure window. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of lung cancer associated with radon is modified by dose and time from exposure. Risk can be substantially decreased by stopping smoking.     

Potential for bias in epidemiologic studies that rely on glass-based retrospective assessment of radon.

Retrospective assessment of exposure to radon remains the greatest challenge in epidemiologic efforts to assess lung cancer risk associated with residential exposure. An innovative technique based on measurement of alpha-emitting, long-lived daughters embedded by recoil into household glass may one day provide improved radon dosimetry. Particulate air pollution is known, however, to retard the plate-out of radon daughters. This would be expected to result in a differential effect on dosimetry, where the calibration curve relating the actual historical radon exposure to the remaining alpha-activity in the glass would be different in historically smoky and nonsmoky environments. The resulting "measurement confounding" can distort inferences about the effect of radon and can also produce spurious evidence for synergism between radon exposure and cigarette smoking.