Experimental release of 131I: the Green Run.

In December 1949, a large amount of 131I was released to the air at Hanford during the dissolving of irradiated uranium fuel for a classified military experiment called the "Green Run." Reports of the release have varied from about 0.15-0.3 PBq. Using, as a guide, the reported measurements of 133Xe released during the experiment, the amount of 131I released has been reanalyzed. The results indicate that about 0.40 +/- 0.12 PBq (11 +/- 3 kCi) was released, somewhat larger than the largest previous estimates.     

Feasibility of an epidemiologic study of thyroid neoplasia in persons exposed to radionuclides from the Hanford nuclear facility between 1944 and 1956

Between 1944 and 1956, approximately 19.6 PBq (530,000 Ci) of 131I were released to the atmosphere during Pu reprocessing for nuclear weapons at the Hanford nuclear facility in southeastern Washington state. For these years, we summarized historical records of quarterly 131I atmospheric releases and vegetation concentrations measured in nearby communities. We used these data and other reported environmental measurements to make preliminary estimates of maximum doses to the thyroid for the general public. We also computed the statistical power for an epidemiologic study of thyroid neoplasia in birth cohorts of children born in two counties near Hanford during the years of highest exposure. These estimates suggest that an epidemiologic study would be feasible if the actual average radiation doses in the exposed population were no less than one-tenth the preliminary maximum doses. Our analyses also suggest that it may be more appropriate to stratify the exposed population by cumulative dose in order to examine the relation between radiation exposure and thyroid neoplasia.     

Testing prediction capabilities of an 131I terrestrial transport model by using measurements collected at the Hanford nuclear facility

A model describing transport of 131I in the environment was developed by SENES Oak Ridge, Inc., for assessment of radiation doses and excess lifetime risk from 131I atmospheric releases from Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, and from Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory in southeast Idaho. This paper describes the results of an exercise designed to test the reliability of this model and to identify the main sources of uncertainty in doses and risks estimated by this model. The testing of the model was based on materials published by the International Atomic Energy Agency BIOMASS program, specifically environmental data collected after the release into atmosphere of 63 curies of 131I during 2-5 September 1963, after an accident at the Hanford PUREX Chemical Separations Plant, in Hanford, Washington. Measurements of activity in air, vegetation, and milk were collected in nine counties around Hanford during the first couple of months after the accident. The activity of 131I in the thyroid glands of two children was measured 47 d after the accident. The model developed by SENES Oak Ridge, Inc., was used to estimate concentrations of 131I in environmental media, thyroid doses for the general population, and the activity of 131I in thyroid glands of the two children. Predicted concentrations of 131I in pasture grass and milk and thyroid doses were compared with similar estimates produced by other modelers. The SENES model was also used to estimate excess lifetime risk of thyroid cancer due to the September 1963 releases of 131I from Hanford. The SENES model was first calibrated and then applied to all locations of interest around Hanford without fitting the model parameters to a given location. Predictions showed that the SENES model reproduces satisfactorily the time-dependent and the time-integrated measured concentrations in vegetation and milk, and provides reliable estimates of 131I activity in thyroids of children. SENES model generated concentrations of 131I closer to observed concentrations, as compared to the predictions produced with other models. The inter-model comparison showed that variation of thyroid doses among all participating models (SENES model included) was a factor of 3 for the general population, but a factor of 10 for the two studied children. As opposed to other models, SENES model allows a complete analysis of uncertainties in every predicted quantity, including estimated thyroid doses and risk of thyroid cancer. The uncertainties in the risk-per-unit-dose and the dose-per-unit-intake coefficients are major contributors to the uncertainty in the estimated lifetime risk and thyroid dose, respectively. The largest contributors to the uncertainty in the estimated concentration in milk are the feed-to-milk transfer factor (F(m)), the dry deposition velocity (V(d)), and the mass interception factor (r/Y)dry for the elemental form of iodine (I2). Exposure to the 1963 PUREX/Hanford accident produced low doses and risks for people living at the studied locations. The upper 97.5th percentile of the excess lifetime risk of thyroid cancer for the most extreme situations is about 10(-4). Measurements in pasture grass and milk at all locations around Hanford indicate a very low transfer of 131I from pasture to cow's milk (e.g., a feed-to-milk transfer coefficient, F(m), for commercial cows of about 0.0022 d L(-1)). These values are towards the low end of F(m) values measured elsewhere and they are low compared to the F(m) values used in other dose reconstruction studies, including the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction.     

Thyroid cancer incidence due to technogenic exposure in childhood

Thyroid cancer incidence was studied in the cohort of residents of Ozyorsk and Kyshtym, the nearest upwind cities to the Mayak Production Association (Mayak PA), Russia's first plutonium production facility, which has been in operation since 1948. Radioactive contamination of areas around the Mayak PA were from unmonitored releases of inert gases produced by industrial reactors and also from the release of uranium fission products from a radiochemical plant stack where irradiated uranium blocks were refined. Iodine-131 (131I) was the main contributor to the technogenic dose from atmospheric releases. Routine monitoring of gaseous releases began in the mid-1960s, when a gas purification system was perfected. Children were a critical group due to their higher radiosensitivity and specific diet (dairy products and vegetables). Both cities maintain Registries containing over 100,000 individuals born from 1934-2006. Among this group, more than 100 cases of thyroid cancer were registered during 1948-2009. The relative risk of thyroid cancer incidence is 1.5 times higher than in the Chelyabinsk.     

Examination of the uncertainty in air concentration predictions using Hanford field data

The accuracy of an environmental transport model is best determined by comparing model predictions with environmental measurements made under conditions similar to those assumed by the model, a process commonly referred to as model validation. Over the past several years, we have done a variety of validation studies with the popular Gaussian plume atmospheric dispersion model using data from tests conducted on the Hanford site. Data for short-term releases of small particles for a range of release heights from surface level to 111 m have been used. Downwind distances examined have ranged from a few hundred meters to 12.8 km, depending on the particular data used. Measured and predicted ground-level centerline, crosswind-integrated, and 22.5 degrees sector-averaged air concentrations have been compared. Up to six different sets of atmospheric dispersion parameters and three different atmospheric stability class specification schemes have been examined. Overall, dispersion parameters based on measurements made near Jülich, Federal Republic of Germany, give the best comparisons between observed and predicted air concentrations. The commonly used vertical temperature gradient method for determining atmospheric stability class consistently gives poor results. The accuracy of air concentration predictions improves when dry deposition processes are included in the model. Further validation studies using various Hanford data sets are planned.     

Using public relations strategies to prompt populations at risk to seek health information: the Hanford Community Health Project

The Hanford Community Health Project (HCHP) addressed health concerns among "downwinders" exposed to releases of radioactive iodine (I-131) from the Hanford Nuclear Reservation in the 1940s and 1950s. After developing educational materials and conducting initial outreach, HCHP had to decide whether to apply its limited resources to an advertising or public relations approach. The decision to apply public relations strategies was effective in driving awareness of the risk communication message at the community level, reinvigorating the affected community, and ultimately increasing the number of people who sought information about their risk of exposure and related health issues. HCHP used a series of communication tools to reach out to local and regional media, medical and health professionals, and community organizations. The campaign was successful in increasing the number of unique visitors to HCHP Web site and educating and activating the medical community around the releases of I-131 and patient care choices.     

Uncertainty in transport factors used to calculate historical dose from 131I releases at the Savannah River Site

During the 1950's, atmospheric release of 131I was one of the largest contributors to offsite dose at the Savannah River Site. Computer models used to estimate offsite dose involve the use of many parameters with wide ranges of uncertainty. The overall uncertainty in dose can be estimated by propagating the uncertainty of each parameter through the model. A major component of the calculational model can be solved for a given release scenario and condensed into a transport factor, which, when multiplied by the air concentration (or deposition) and the appropriate dose conversion factor, can be used to estimate a specific pathway dose. Uncertainties are estimated for the period of 1955-1961 for all parameters contributing to the 131I transport factor for each pathway. The overall transport factor including all pathways has ranges characterized by maximum-to-minimum ratios (95% to 5%) of about 40. The parameter shown to have the greatest impact on the transport factor calculation was the fraction of elemental iodine released.     

Comparison of doses and risks obtained from dose reconstructions for historical operations of federal facilities that supported the development,production, or testing of nuclear weapons

Five dose reconstruction projects focusing on historical public exposures from U.S. government nuclear facilities have been completed in the last 12 y (Fernald, Hanford, Nevada Test Site, Oak Ridge, Rocky Flats). Using information available in published reports, doses and excess health risks of the most serious contaminants in each study are compared for representative maximally and typically exposed individuals. For both the representative maximally exposed individual and the representative typically exposed individual, the highest excess risks of cancer incidence were from 131I released from Hanford, Nevada Test Site, and Oak Ridge and 222Rn released from Fernald (with central estimates for maximally exposed individuals approaching or exceeding 10(-2)); the lowest risks for both maximally and typically exposed individuals were from 239/240Pu and carbon tetrachloride released from Rocky Flats. Excess health risks to the representative maximally exposed individual were at or below 10(-40 for releases from Rocky Flats. For representative typically exposed individuals, the excess risks from releases of mixed radionuclides in the Clinch River (Oak Ridge), PCBs in East Fork Poplar Creek (Oak Ridge), and both plutonium and carbon tetrachloride released from Rocky Flats were mostly below 10(-5).     

Juvenile hypothyroidism among two populations exposed to radioiodine

We found an epidemic of juvenile hypothyroidism among a population of self-defined "downwinders" living near the Hanford nuclear facility located in southeast Washington State. The episode followed massive releases of 131I. Self-reported data on 60 cases of juvenile hypothyroidism (<20 years of age) among a group of 801 Hanford downwinders are presented, as well as data concerning the thyroid status of approximately 160,000 children exposed to radioiodine before 10 years of age as a result of the 26 April 1986 Chernobyl explosion in the former Soviet Union. These children were residents of five regions near Chernobyl. They were examined by standardized screening protocols over a period of 5 years from 1991 to 1996. They are a well-defined group of 10 samples. Fifty-six cases of hypothyroidism were found among boys and 92 among girls. Body burdens of 137Cs have been correlated with hypothyroidism prevalence rates. On the other hand, the group of juvenile (<20 years of age) Hanford downwinders is not a representative sample. Most of the 77 cases of juvenile hypothyroidism in the Hanford group were diagnosed from 1945 to 1970. However, the ratio of reported cases to the county population under 20 years of age is roughly correlated with officially estimated mean levels of cumulative thyroid 131I uptake in these counties, providing evidence that juvenile hypothyroidism was associated with radioiodine exposures. Because even subtle hypothyroidism may be of clinical significance in childhood and can be treated, it may be useful to screen for the condition in populations exposed to radioiodine fallout. Although radiation exposure is associated with hypothyroidism, its excess among fallout-exposed children has not been previously quantified.     

Population exposures to I-131 releases from Hanford Nuclear Reservation and preterm birth,infant mortality,and fetal deaths

Communities surrounding the Hanford Nuclear Reservation in southeastern Washington were exposed to radionuclides, particularly iodine-131, released during the period 1945 to 1951. This study evaluated whether estimated iodine-131 exposures were risk factors for infant mortality, fetal death, and preterm birth in the years of highest releases, 1945 and 1946. Data on births, fetal deaths, and infant deaths, during the period 1940 to 1950, were abstracted from vital records for an eight county area surrounding the Hanford facility. The analysis included 56,320 births, 1,656 infant deaths, and 806 fetal deaths. The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction project provided iodine-131 dose estimates for the 1,102 grid areas in the study area. The grid areas were collapsed into 4 exposure groups using estimated exposure to iodine-131 during 1945. Each birth and death record was assigned to one of the four grid groups based on mother's residence at the time of birth. Comparisons of preterm birth, infant death, and fetal death rates were made among the grid groupings for the primary exposure period (1945 to 1946) and for other years of the study period (i.e., 1940 to 1944 and 1947 to 1950). In the grid group with the highest estimated iodine-131 exposures, the mother's residence during the latter part of pregnancy was associated with preterm birth (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.09-2.72). An association with infant mortality (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 0.79-1.97) was suggested. No association was found for fetal deaths. This study found that iodine-131 exposure was associated with increased risk of preterm birth. This finding is biologically plausible because other studies have found that: (1) iodine-131 exposure can cause hypothyroidism, and (2) overt or subclinical hypothyroidism during pregnancy can increase a mother's risk of a preterm delivery.     

Reevaluation of waterborne releases of radioactive materials from the Mayak Production Association into the Techa River in 1949-1951

The Mayak Production Association was the first site for the production of weapons-grade plutonium in Russia. Early operations led to the waterborne release of radioactive materials into the small Techa River. Residents living downstream used river water for drinking and other purposes. The releases and subsequent flooding resulted in deposition of sediments along the shoreline and on floodplain soil. Primary routes of exposure were external dose from the deposited sediments and ingestion of 90Sr and other radionuclides. Study of the Techa River Cohort has revealed an increased incidence of leukemia and solid cancers. Epidemiologic studies are supported by extensive dose-reconstruction activities that have led to various versions of a Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS). The correctness of the TRDS has been challenged by the allegation that releases of short-lived radionuclides were much larger than those used in the TRDS. Although the dosimetry system depends more upon measurements of 90Sr in humans and additional measurements of radionuclides and of exposure rates in the environment, a major activity has been undertaken to define more precisely the time-dependent rates of release and their radionuclide composition. The major releases occurred during 1950-1951 in the form of routine releases and major accidental releases. The reevaluated amount of total release is 114 PBq, about half of which was from accidents that occurred in late 1951. The time-dependent composition of the radionuclides released has also been reevaluated. The improved understanding presented in this paper is possible because of access to many documents not previously available.     

Estimation of thyroid radiation doses for the hanford thyroid disease study: results and implications for statistical power of the epidemiological analyses

Residents of eastern Washington, northeastern Oregon, and western Idaho were exposed to I released into the atmosphere from operations at the Hanford Nuclear Site from 1944 through 1972, especially in the late 1940's and early 1950's. This paper describes the estimated doses to the thyroid glands of the 3,440 evaluable participants in the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study, which investigated whether thyroid morbidity was increased in people exposed to radioactive iodine from Hanford during 1944-1957. The participants were born during 1940-1946 to mothers living in Benton, Franklin, Walla Walla, Adams, Okanogan, Ferry, or Stevens Counties in Washington State. Whenever possible someone with direct knowledge of the participant's early life (preferably the participant's mother) was interviewed about the participant's individual dose-determining characteristics (residence history, sources and quantities of food, milk, and milk products consumed, production and processing techniques for home-grown food and milk products). Default information was used if no interview respondent was available. Thyroid doses were estimated using the computer program Calculation of Individual Doses from Environmental Radionuclides (CIDER) developed by the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project. CIDER provided 100 sets of doses to represent uncertainty of the estimates. These sets were not generated independently for each participant, but reflected the effects of uncertainties in characteristics shared by participants. Estimated doses (medians of each participant's 100 realizations) ranged from 0.0029 mGy to 2823 mGy, with mean and median of 174 and 97 mGy, respectively. The distribution of estimated doses provided the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study with sufficient statistical power to test for dose-response relationships between thyroid outcomes and exposure to Hanford's I.     

Models of radioiodine transport to populations within the continental U.S

A methodology is being developed to estimate the exposure of Americans to 131I originating from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests carried out at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the 1950s and early 1960s. Since very few direct environmental measurements of 131I were made at that time, the assessment must rely on estimates of 131I deposition based on meterological modeling and on measurements of total beta activity from the radioactive fallout deposited on gummed-film collectors that were located across the country. The most important source of human exposure from fallout 131I was due to the ingestion of cows' milk. The overall methodology used to assess the 131I concentration in milk and the 131I intake by people on a county basis for the most significant atmospheric tests is presented and discussed. Certain aspects of the methodology are discussed in a more detailed manner in companion papers also presented in this issue. This work is carried out within the framework of a task group established by the National Cancer Institute.     

Environmental releases of radioactivity and the incidence of thyroid disease at the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant

The Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant consists of two Russian-made RBMK-1500 reactors. The plant uses Lake Druksiai as a natural reservoir for cooling water. Within the framework of the revised radiation dose limitation system, site-specific routine release conversion factors and maximum annual effective doses for the dominant radionuclides and pathways were evaluated for both atmospheric and aquatic releases. Using calculated release conversion factors, the locations of the highest predicted activity concentrations were determined for air and for the dilution zone of heated effluent water during the period 1984-1998. Committed effective doses for critical group members were less than 0.001 mSv for Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant airborne releases and less than 0.05 mSv for aquatic releases. These dose estimates are lower than the 1 mSv dose limit for the adjacent population. In the case of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, taking into account the uncertainties, a recommendation for the administrative dose constraint is 0.25 mSv y(-1). This dose level may scarcely affect human health. Interestingly, during screening for thyroid disorders, endocrinologists and pediatric-endocrinologists determined a dominance of abnormal thyroids (up to 60%) among school children in the vicinity of Ignalina NPP. The data on neonatal screening for congenital hypothyroidism and transient hyperthyrotropinemia, however, suggested a possibility that the majority of abnormal thyroid cases were related to stable iodine deficiency. Thus, the influence of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant on thyroid disorders is highly conjectural and unlikely to be associated with the observed levels of childhood thyroid disease.     

Radiation doses to members of the public near to Sellafield, Cumbria, from liquid discharges 1952-98.

Liquid wastes containing low levels of radioactivity have been discharged to the Irish Sea from the nuclear fuel reprocessing site at Sellafield since operations began in the early 1950s, and monitoring of radioactivity in foodstuffs has been undertaken over many years. Based on the best available monitoring data, supplemented by modelled values where necessary, doses to local critical groups have been reassessed using the most recent dosimetry. Contemporary habits data have been used where available, again supplemented by assumed habits where necessary. During the 1950s and 1960s the highest doses were received by individuals consuming Cumbrian Porphyra as laverbread, and peak doses around 0.8 to 1.0 mSv year(-1) have been estimated. During the 1970s and 1980s the critical exposure group switched to consumers of local fish and shellfish, with peak doses possibly reaching 2.5 to 3.0 mSv year(-1). Latterly, doses to all marine-related groups have declined to less than 150 to 200 microSv year(-1). At all times, doses have been within the appropriate limits set for members of the public.     

A radioiodine speciation, deposition, and dispersion model with uncertainty propagation for the Oak Ridge dose reconstruction

Between 1944 and 1956, radioactive 131I was released into the atmosphere from operations at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, TN. The releases occurred from stacks and from building vents and openings in three different chemical forms: elemental, organic, and particulate. During their transport in the atmosphere, different forms of iodine react differently with other atmospheric chemicals and moisture, and are removed from the plume at different rates by the processes of dry and wet deposition. A modified Gaussian plume model was developed to address the processes of radioiodine speciation, deposition, depletion, and dispersion in the atmosphere, and to propagate uncertainties in input parameter values through to the ground-level concentrations of 131I in air. A unique approach was used to develop an implicitly correlated set of hourly meteorological parameters for any day of a month for each month of the year from ten years of available data between 1987 and 1996. The model was validated for both annual average and short-term releases. For the annual average releases, the predictions of ground-level concentrations of 131I from the model were within a factor of 2 of measured field data. For two of the three sets of available weekly data, the measurements fell within the 95% subjective confidence interval of model predictions. Predictions of ground-level air concentrations were made on an annual average basis for the entire period of release and on a short-term, episodic basis for a 1954 accident.     

Radiation effects of the Chernobyl accident on the Hungarian population

Due to the nuclear accident at Chernobyl in April 1986, the atmospheric transport spread the released radioactivity throughout the whole Europe. The initial plume moved into the north-western direction and a portion of this plum turned to west and later on to south-west. The central European countries including Hungary became affected in 29-30 April. The release during the last period (5-7 May) was directed to Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. In addition to the main trajectories of the atmospheric transport, the local meteorological conditions with winds of different directions at various altitudes, rainfalls etc. produced a very complex deposition pattern in Central Europe. The contamination of the soil surface and vegetation were strongly influenced by the wash-out of the radioactive materials from the local air. Due to the high geographical variation of the rains the surface contamination provided a similar heterogeneity among the territories of the country. The northern-west part and the region of the capital Budapest became nearly 5 times higher contaminated than the middle part of the country. Radiation doses of the population have been provided by activity concentrations in air, soil, vegetation, foods etc. and the external dose rates, mainly due to the surface contamination by the isotopes of 131I, 134Cs and 137Cs. The average effective dose contribution received by the individuals (adults) in Hungary during the 15 years following the accident has been assessed to be 0.30 mSv while the annual dose from the natural background is 2.5-3 mSv. Contribution to total dose from the internal pathway (committed effective dose) resulted about 0.10 mSv and the external radiation provided 0.19 mSv. The contributions of the external exposure from the contaminated air and inhalation are less than 5% of the total one.     

Retrospective evaluation of 131I deposition density and thyroid dose in Poland after the Chernobyl accident

The 131I deposition in Poland after the Chernobyl accident on 26 April 1986 was evaluated from the determined 129I deposition and the estimated 129I/131I ratio at the time of the arrival of fallout. Concentrations of 129I and 127I were determined by neutron activation analysis in uncultivated soils from 16 locations in Poland. Determination of 137Cs in soils was carried out by gamma spectrometry. The atomic ratio of 129I/131I at the time of fallout arrival was estimated using the 129I/131I ratio at the time of the accident, which, on the basis of the core inventory data, was assumed to be 22.8. It was estimated from the time of fallout arrival and from the weighed mean atomic ratio that the 129I/131I ratio for Poland was 32.8. The calculated 131I deposition ranged from 63.2 to 729 kBq m(-2). High deposition of 131I occurred in the locations with rainfall but occasionally also in locations without rainfall. Committed equivalent doses from 131I were evaluated for 5-y-old children, 10-y-old children, and adults using the computer model CLRP for the situations with and without countermeasures including iodine prophylaxis. The highest thyroid doses from inhalation and ingestion without countermeasures were 178 mSv, 120 mSv, and 45 mSv for 5-y-old children, 10-y-old children, and adults, respectively. The countermeasures reduced these doses by about 30%.     

Pasture practices, milk distribution, and consumption in the continental U.S. in the 1950s

Determining the consumption of milk contaminated with 131I, resulting from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests conducted at the Nevada Test Site, by the United States population during the 1950s constitutes one part of the methodology used by the National Cancer Institute to assess radiation exposures to Americans. In order to make these estimates for locations throughout the United States, it is necessary to determine the pasture intake by cows and the distribution of the milk produced for human consumption at times when the weapons were tested. Since the milk industry has undergone many changes during the past 35 y, historical records and information must be used. The methodology developed to estimate the intake of contaminated pasture by dairy cows, milk production, and milk distribution on a county basis for the continental U.S. during the 1950s is described in detail. The relevant data on milk consumption by humans are also discussed.