Predictors of mortality among HIV-infected women in Kigali, Rwanda.

OBJECTIVE: To better characterize the natural history of disease due to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in African women. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study over a 2-year follow-up period. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 460 HIV-seropositive women and a comparison cohort of HIV-seronegative women recruited from prenatal and pediatric clinics in Kigali, Rwanda in 1988. MEASUREMENTS: Clinical signs and symptoms of HIV disease, AIDS, and mortality. MAIN RESULTS: Follow-up data at 2 years were available for 93% of women who were still alive. At enrollment, many seropositive women reported symptoms listed in the World Health Organization (WHO) clinical case definition of AIDS, but these were nonspecific and often improved over time. The 2-year mortality among HIV-infected women by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was 7% (95% CI, 5% to 10%) overall, and 21% (CI, 8% to 34%) for the 40 women who fulfilled the WHO case definition of AIDS at entry. In comparison, the 2-year mortality in women not infected with HIV was only 0.3% (CI, 0% to 7%). Independent baseline predictors of mortality in seropositive women by Cox proportional hazards modeling were, in order of descending risk factor prevalence: a body mass index of 21 kg/m2 or less (relative hazard, 2.3; CI, 1.1 to 4.8), low income (relative hazard, 2.3; CI, 1.1 to 4.5), an erythrocyte sedimentation rate exceeding 60 mm/h (relative hazard, 4.9; CI, 2.2 to 10.9), chronic diarrhea (relative hazard, 2.6; CI, 1.1 to 5.7), a history of herpes zoster (relative hazard 5.3; CI, 2.5 to 11.4), and oral candida (relative hazard, 7.3; CI, 1.6 to 33.3). Human immunodeficiency virus disease was the cause of death in 38 of the 39 HIV-positive women who died, but only 25 met the WHO definition of AIDS before death. CONCLUSIONS: Human immunodeficiency virus disease now accounts for 90% of all deaths among child-bearing urban Rwandan women. Many symptomatic seropositive patients may show some clinical improvement and should not be denied routine medical care. Easily diagnosed signs and symptoms and inexpensive laboratory tests can be used in Africa to identify those patients with a particularly good or bad prognosis.     

Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Stable COPD

OBJECTIVES  To determine which easily available clinical factors are associated with mortality in patients with stable COPD and if health-related quality of life (HRQoL) provides additional information. DESIGN  Five-year prospective cohort study. SETTING  Five outpatient clinics of a teaching hospital. PARTICIPANTS  Six hundred stable COPD patients recruited consecutively. MEASUREMENTS  The variables were age, FEV_1%, dyspnea, previous hospital admissions and emergency department visits for COPD, pack-years of smoking, comorbidities, body mass index, and HRQoL measured by Saint George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire (CRQ), and Short-Form 36 (SF-36). Logistic and Cox regression models were used to assess the influence of these variables on mortality and survival. RESULTS  FEV_1%(OR: 0.62, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.75), dyspnea (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.2 to 3), age (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.6 to 3.6), previous hospitalization due to COPD exacerbations (OR 1.53, 1.2 to 2) and lifetime pack-years (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.2) were independently related to respiratory mortality. Similarly, these factors were independently related to all-cause mortality with dyspnea having the strongest association (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.2). HRQoL was an independent predictor of respiratory and all-cause mortality only when dyspnea was excluded from the models, except scores on the SGRQ were associated with all-cause mortality with dyspnea in the model. CONCLUSIONS  Among patients with stable COPD, FEV_1% was the main predictor of respiratory mortality and dyspnea of all-cause mortality. In general, HRQoL was not related to mortality when dyspnea was taken into account, and CRQ and SGRQ behaved in similar ways regarding mortality. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Sources of support: Grant no. 97/0326 from the Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria. Research Committee of Galdakao-Usansolo Hospital.     

Management of Chronic Hepatitis B in HIV-Coinfected Patients

Hepatitis B virus infection occurs in approximately 7% of people living with HIV (PLWH), with substantial regional variation and higher prevalence among intravenous drug users. Early studies on the natural history of HIV/HBV coinfection demonstrated that in coinfected patients, chronic hepatitis B (CHB) has a more rapid progression than in HBV-monoinfected patients, leading to end-stage liver disease complications, including hepatocellular carcinoma. Therefore, the adequate management of CHB is considered a priority in HIV-coinfected patients. Several guidelines have highlighted this issue and have provided recommendations for preventing and treating HBV infection. This article discusses the management of liver disease in patients with HIV/HBV coinfection and summarizes the current and future therapeutic options for treating chronic hepatitis B in this setting.     

Mortality Rates and Predictors of Mortality Among Late-Middle-Aged and Older Substance Abuse Patients

This study describes mortality rates and predictors of mortality among late-middle-aged and older (55+) substance abuse inpatients ( n = 21, 139) in Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Medical Centers in the 4 years after an index episode of care. A total of 24% of the patients died; this mortality rate was 2.64 times higher than expected. Predictors of earlier mortality included older age and nonmarried status, alcohol psychosis and organic brain disorder diagnoses, and several medical diagnoses, including neoplasms, liver cirrhosis, respiratory, endocrine and metabolic, and blood system disorders. Three proxy indicators of illness severity also predicted mortality: more prior inpatient and outpatient medical care and an index episode in an extended care unit. In contrast, more prior outpatient mental health care and remitted status predicted lower mortality. These diagnostic and treatment indicators can be used to identify patients at heightened risk for premature mortality. Moreover, they show that intensive mental health aftercare and remission of substance abuse may delay mortality, even among older patients who have longstanding substance abuse problems.     

Negative Predictors of Survival in HIV-Infected Patients with Culture-Confirmed Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Summary We performed a retrospective study based on chart review of 118 HIV-infected patients with culture-confirmed pulmonary TB, in which M. tuberculosis isolates were tested for drug susceptibility. Patients were enrolled in the period January 1987 to December 1996 and followed until September 1997. The median survival for the entire cohort was 15.2 months with a 1-year survival rate of 57%. Prior AIDS-defining illness, low CD₄ count (< 200/mm³), not having received antituberculous therapy with at least two drugs to which M. tuberculosis was susceptible in vitro, starting within four weeks of diagnosis, treatment duration of less than three weeks and multidrug resistant tuberculosis were each independently associated with decreased survival in multivariate analysis. Received: March 19, 1999 · Accepted: September 19, 1999     

Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization

Background/Aim

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the recommended treatment for patients with Barcelona stage B hepatocellular carcinoma; however, community practice varies from these American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases guidelines. In this study, we sought to assess factors determining outcome after TACE and examine adherence to guidelines.

Methods

From January 2006 to December 2012, 308 patients with newly diagnosed HCC were treated at the Veterans Affairs (VA) Ann Arbor Healthcare System. Of these, 109 patients underwent TACE. The primary outcome measured mortality. Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to determine the cumulative probability of death. Cox regression was used to assess the predictors of mortality.

Results

The median age of the 109 patients was 60 years (48–90), 97 % were males and 82 % had chronic HCV infection. The median size of the largest lesion was 4 cm, 51 % were multifocal, and portal vein thrombosis was present in 3.6 %. Sixty-two patients died after median 333 days from the index TACE treatment. Median overall survival from index TACE was 11.2 months. Unadjusted 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival was 64, 35, and 24 %, respectively. CTP score (B vs. A: HR 2.51, p = 0.002; C vs. A: HR 7.96, p < 0.0001) and presence of complete response to TACE (HR 0.51, p = 0.004) were independent predictors of mortality. Barcelona stage (p = 0.88) and performance status as measured by ECOG (p = 0.98) were not associated with mortality after TACE.

Conclusions

In this community based, single VA center study, we found a significant number of patients beyond Barcelona stage B were treated with TACE. Advanced TNM stage, poor liver synthetic function and achieving CR with TACE were better predictors of mortality than guideline-directed decisions based on Barcelona stage. These factors may be useful to guide future patient selection for TACE.     

Predictors of Rebleeding and Mortality in Patients with High-Risk Bleeding Peptic Ulcers

Background and Aim  

Patients with bleeding ulcers can have recurrent bleeding and mortality after endoscopic therapy. Risk stratification is important in the management of the initial patient triage. The aim of this study is to identify the clinical and laboratory risk factors for recurrent bleeding and mortality.     

Clinical Predictors of Mortality in Patients with Moderate to Severe Mitral Regurgitation

BackgroundMitral regurgitation is the most common form of valvular heart disease worldwide, however, there is an incomplete understanding of predictors of mortality in this population. This study sought to identify risk factors of mortality in a real-world population with mitral regurgitation.MethodsAll patients with moderate or severe mitral regurgitation were identified at a single center from January 1, 2016 to August 31, 2017. Multivariate regression was performed to evaluate variables independently associated with all-cause mortality.ResultsA total of 490 patients with moderate (76.3%) or severe (23.7%) mitral regurgitation due to primary (20.8%) or secondary (79.2%) etiology were identified. The mean age was 66.7 years; 50% were male. At a median follow-up of 3.1 years, the incidence of all-cause mortality was 30.1%, heart failure hospitalization 23.1%, and mitral valve intervention 11.6%. Of 117 variables, multivariate analysis demonstrated 5 that were independently predictive of mortality: baseline creatinine (hazard ratio [HR] 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.3; P = .02), right atrial pressure by echocardiogram (HR 1.3; 95% CI, 1.07-1.55; P = .008), hemoglobin (HR 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52-0.83; P = .001), hospitalization for heart failure (HR 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.4; P = .015), and mitral valve intervention (HR 0.40; 95% CI, 0.16-0.83; P = .049).ConclusionIn this retrospective, pragmatic analysis of patients with moderate or severe mitral regurgitation, admission for heart failure exacerbation, elevated right atrial pressure, renal dysfunction, anemia, and lack of mitral valve intervention were independently associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality. Whether these risk factors may better identify select patients who may benefit from more intensive monitoring or earlier intervention should be considered in future studies.     

Clinical Predictors for Death in HIV-positive and HIV-negative Tuberculosis Patients in Guinea-Bissau

Abstract Object: To assess easily monitored predictors for tuberculosis mortality. Design: Risk factors for tuberculosis mortality were assessed during the 8-month treatment in 440 men and 269 women diagnosed with confirmed or presumed intrathoracic tuberculosis included prospectively in Guinea-Bissau from May 1996 to April 2001. A civil war occurred in the study area from June 1998 to May 1999. Results: 12% were HIV-1 positive, 16% HIV-2 positive and 7% were HIV dually infected. Case fatality rates for HIV positive were higher during (35% [22/63]) and after the war (29% [27/92]) compared to before the war (17% [15/88]). The war did not have an effect on the case fatality rate in HIV negative (10% [13/135] before the war). HIV-1-infected patients had higher mortality than HIV-2 infected, mortality rate ratio (MRR) = 2.28 (95% confidence interval 1.17–4.46). Men had higher mortality than women but only among the HIV negative (MRR = 2.09 [0.95–4.59]). Hence, the negative impact of HIV infection on mortality was stronger in women (MRR = 6.51 [2.98–14.2]) than in men (MRR = 2.64 [1.67–4.17]) (test of homogeneity, p = 0.051). Anergy to tuberculin was associated with death in HIV positive (MRR = 2.77 [1.38–5.54]) but not in HIV negative (MRR = 1.14 [0.52–2.53]). Signs of immune deficiency, such as oral candida infection or leukoplakia (MRR = 4.25 [1.92–9.44]) and diarrhea (MRR = 2.15 [1.29–3.58] was associated with mortality in HIV positive. Tendencies were similar among HIV negative. HIV-positive relapse cases were at increased risk of dying (MRR = 2.42 [1.10–5.34]). Malnutrition, measured through mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), increased the risk of death. Conclusion: Easily monitored predictors for mortality in tuberculosis patients include clinical signs of immune deficiency and low MUAC.     

Predictors of All-Cause Mortality and Liver-Related Mortality in Patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD)

Aim

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients are at increased risk for progression to cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to assess all-cause and liver-specific mortality in a cohort of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients.

Methods

Biopsy-proven NAFLD patients with and without NASH from two historic databases were included. Clinico-demographic information from the time of biopsy was available. Mortality data were obtained from National Death Index-Plus and used for estimating overall and cause-specific mortality. The non-parametric Kaplan–Meier method with log-rank test and multivariate analyses with Cox proportional hazard model were used to compare cohorts.

Results

Two hundred eighty-nine NAFLD patients were included (50.3 ± 14.5 years old, 39.4 % male, 78.6 % Caucasian, 46.0 % obese, 26.0 % diabetic, 5.9 % with family history of liver diseases). Of these, 59.2 % had NASH whereas 40.8 % had non-NASH NAFLD. NASH patients were predominantly female, had higher aspartate aminotranserase, alanine aminotransferase and fasting serum glucose. During follow-up (median 150 months, maximum 342 months), patients with NASH had higher probability of mortality from liver-related causes than non-NASH NAFLD patients (p value = 0.0026). In the entire NAFLD cohort, older age [aHR = 1.07 (95 % CI = 1.05–1.10)] and presence of type II diabetes [aHR = 2.09 (1.39–3.14)] were independent predictors of overall mortality. However, in addition to age [aHR = 1.06 (1.02–1.10)] having histologic NASH [aHR = 9.16 (2.10–9.88)] was found to be an independent predictor of liver-related mortality. Additionally, presence of type II diabetes was associated with liver-related mortality [aHR = 2.19 (1.00–4.81)].

Conclusions

This long-term follow-up of NAFLD patients confirms that NASH patients have higher risk of liver-related mortality than non-NASH. Additionally, patients with NAFLD and type II diabetes are at highest risk for overall and liver-related mortality.     

Predictors of In-hospital Mortality Among Patients Presenting with Variceal Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Background/Aim:

The recent years have witnessed an increase in number of people harboring chronic liver diseases. Gastroesophageal variceal bleeding occurs in 30% of patients with cirrhosis, and accounts for 80%-90% of bleeding episodes. We aimed to assess the in-hospital mortality rate among subjects presenting with variceal gastrointestinal bleeding and (2) to investigate the predictors of mortality rate among subjects presenting with variceal gastrointestinal bleeding.

Patients and Methods:

This retrospective study was conducted from treatment records of 317 subjects who presented with variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding to Government Medical College, Patiala, between June 1, 2010, and May 30, 2014. The data thus obtained was compiled using a preset proforma, and the details analyzed using SPSSv20.

Results:

Cirrhosis accounted for 308 (97.16%) subjects with bleeding varices, with extrahepatic portal vein obstruction 9 (2.84%) completing the tally. Sixty-three (19.87%) subjects succumbed to death during hospital stay. Linear logistic regression revealed independent predictors for in-hospital mortality, including higher age (P = 0.000), Child-Pugh Class (P = 0.002), altered sensorium (P = 0.037), rebleeding within 24 h of admission (P = 0.000), low hemoglobin level (P = 0.023), and serum bilirubin (P = 0.002).

Conclusion:

Higher age, low hemoglobin, higher Child-Pugh Class, rebleeding within 24 h of admission, higher serum bilirubin, and lower systolic blood pressure are the independent predictors of in-hospital mortality among subjects presenting with variceal gastrointestinal bleeding.     

Predictors of Mortality in Home-Dwelling Patients with Cardiovascular Disease Aged 75 and Older

OBJECTIVES: To compare the predictive value of biomarkers commonly measured in older patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) with an indicator of cognitive function.
DESIGN: Prospective cohort study.
SETTING: Helsinki, Finland.
PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred ninety-eight home-dwelling older persons (261 women, mean age 80) with stable CVD and without a diagnosis of clinical dementia.
MEASUREMENTS: Simple laboratory and clinical measurements (including the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE, maximum score 30 points) and New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification) were used to predict mortality. A MMSE score between 18 and 24 points was considered to indicate cognitive impairment.
RESULTS: At baseline, median MMSE score was 27 (interquartile range 25–28), with 59 individuals having a score below 24 points. During a mean follow-up of 6.0 years, 129 participants died. In the fully adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, low MMSE score was the strongest predictor of mortality, with a relative hazard of 2.38 (95% confidence interval=1.52–3.74; P <.001). Of the various clinical and laboratory variables, only creatinine, C-reactive protein, and history of congestive heart failure were significant independent predictors, whereas conventional risk factors were not.
CONCLUSION: Only a few clinical variables independently predicted 6-year mortality in older home-living patients with CVD. The strongest predictor was impaired cognitive function assessed using MMSE.     

Predictors of Mortality in Patients Admitted to Hospital for Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage

Background: Although the ‘test‐and‐treat’ strategy is suggested as first‐line therapy for uninvestigated dyspepsia, no large‐scale studies in a real‐life setting are available. Methods: 1552 dyspeptic patients aged between 25 and 60 with no alarm symptoms were recruited to the study. After screening with a ¹³ C‐urea breath test, they were randomized into three treatment arms: Helicobacter pylori‐positive either to eradication therapy with OAM (omeprazole, amoxycillin and metronidazole) (Hp+/erad) or omeprazole 20?mg daily (Hp+/ome) for 10 days, whereas H. pylori‐negative patients (Hp?/ome) were treated with 20?mg omeprazole for 10 days. Gastrointestinal symptoms were registered at baseline at 1 and 2 years on the Gastrointestinal Symptom Rating Scale (GSRS) and quality of life with the Psychological General Well‐Being index (PGWB). Additional visits, referrals for and number of endoscopies and their findings were registered during the 2 years' follow‐up. Results: Of the 1552 patients, 583 were H. pylori‐positive (37.6%), and 288 of these were randomized for omeprazole and 295 to OAM. The Hp?/ome group had fewer general practitioner (GP) contacts (P?H. pylori‐positive groups. Eradication therapy significantly improved general well‐being and reduced upper gastrointestinal symptoms: abdominal pain (P?=?0.0001), heartburn (P?=?0.0061), acid regurgitation (P?=?0.003), hunger pain (P?=?0.009), especially in Hp+/erad. Peptic ulcer was found in 6.2%, 1.0%, 0.2% in Hp+/ome, Hp?+/erad and Hp?/ome, respectively (P?=?0.0007). Only 3 patients (1.0%) developed peptic ulcers in Hp?+/erad, all eradication failures. Conclusions: In uninvestigated dyspepsia, a negative test result for H. pylori reduces the number of GP contacts and endoscopy referrals compared to H. pylori‐positive regardless of eradication therapy. Applied in real life, the test‐and‐treat strategy failed to reduce the number of endoscopies, but significantly reduced peptic ulcer disease and improved dyspeptic symptoms and quality of life.     

Diagnosis, Clinical Presentation, and In-Hospital Mortality of Severe Malaria in HIV-Coinfected Children and Adults in Mozambique

Background.?Severe falciparum malaria with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection is common in settings with a high prevalence of both diseases, but there is little information on whether HIV affects the clinical presentation and outcome of severe malaria. Methods.?HIV status was assessed prospectively in hospitalized parasitemic adults and children with severe malaria in Beira, Mozambique, as part of a clinical trial comparing parenteral artesunate versus quinine (ISRCTN50258054). Clinical signs, comorbidity, complications, and disease outcome were compared according to HIV status. Results.?HIV-1 seroprevalence was 11% (74/655) in children under 15 years and 72% (49/68) in adults with severe malaria. Children with HIV coinfection presented with more severe acidosis, anemia, and respiratory distress, and higher peripheral blood parasitemia and plasma Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein-2 (PfHRP2). During hospitalization, deterioration in coma score, convulsions, respiratory distress, and pneumonia were more common in HIV-coinfected children, and mortality was 26% (19/74) versus 9% (53/581) in uninfected children (P?相似文献   

Mortality of Tuberculosis in Very Old People

OBJECTIVES: To describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of tuberculosis (TB) in elderly people.
DESIGN: Observational analysis of a prospective cohort of adults with TB (1995–2004). A case–control study to determine attributable mortality to TB in very old people was done.
RESULTS: Of 319 patients with TB, 109 (34.2%) were aged 65 and older. The older group was more likely to have comorbidities (1.4% vs 0.4%; P <.001), extrapulmonary and disseminated TB (50.4% vs 26.1%; P <.001), toxicity (22% vs 9.8%; P =.006), and 30-day mortality (18.3% vs 1.6%; P <.001). When patients aged 65 to 79 were compared with those aged 80 and older, only differences in TB-related mortality were detected (9.8% vs 44.4%; P =.01). In the attributable mortality analysis, 30-day and 6-month mortality were higher in very old patients with TB than in controls without TB (41.7% vs 11.1%, P =.005; 45.8% and 19.4%, P =.01, respectively). No differences in mortality were shown when excluding patients with postmortem TB diagnosis or those who died within the first 72 hours of diagnosis.
CONCLUSION: Older people with TB had a higher frequency of atypical features, more adverse drug reactions, and greater TB-related mortality than younger people. Data suggest that very old patients with TB have higher mortality, but if diagnosed early and adequately treated, very old patients with TB do not have greater mortality than those without.