Trends in old-age mortality in seven European countries, 1950-1999

OBJECTIVE: Different from the general observed decline in old-age mortality, for The Netherlands and Norway there have been reports of stagnation in the decline since the 1980s. We detect periods of stagnation in recent old-age mortality trends, and explore for which causes of death the recent stagnation is most apparent. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We applied Poisson regression analysis to total and cause-specific mortality data by age (80+), period (1950-1999), and sex for seven European low-mortality countries. RESULTS: We found large heterogeneity in the pace of decline in the countries under investigation, with periods of stagnation being widespread. In the 1980s and 1990s, stagnation was observed in Denmark, The Netherlands, and Norway (males). Continued mortality decline was observed especially in France. Although smoking has had a marked influence on the trends in old-age mortality, the role of smoking in the recent stagnation seems only modest and restricted to Norway. Mortality from cardiovascular diseases showed important crossnational variations in the pace of decline. Mortality from diseases specifically related to old age increased recently in all countries, except France. CONCLUSION: Old-age mortality seems highly plastic and susceptible to many factors, with both favorable and unfavorable effects on trends over time.     

Cohort patterns in mortality trends among the elderly in seven European countries, 1950-99

BACKGROUND: Secular trends in old-age mortality are of crucial importance to population ageing. For the understanding and prediction of these trends, it is important to determine whether birth cohort effects, i.e. long-lasting effects of exposures earlier in life, are important in determining mortality trends up to old age. This study aimed to identify and describe cohort patterns in trends in mortality among the elderly (>60 years of age) in seven European countries. METHODS: A standard age-period-cohort analysis was applied to all-cause and cause-specific mortality data by 5-year age groups and sex, for Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, France, The Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden, in the period 1950-99. RESULTS: Cohort patterns were identified in all countries, for both the sexes and virtually all causes of death. They strongly influenced the trends in all-cause mortality among Danish, Dutch, and Norwegian men, and the trends in mortality from infectious diseases, lung cancer (men only), prostate cancer, breast cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). All-cause mortality decline stagnated among Danish, Dutch, and Norwegian male birth cohorts born between 1890 and 1915, among French men born after 1920, and among women from all countries born after 1920. Where all-cause mortality decline stagnated, cohort patterns in mortality from lung cancer, COPD, and to a lesser extent ischaemic heart diseases, were unfavourable as well. For infectious diseases, stomach cancer, and cerebrovascular diseases, mortality increased among cohorts born before 1890, and decreased strongly thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Cohort effects related to factors such as living conditions in childhood and smoking in adulthood were important in determining the recent trends in mortality among the elderly in seven European countries.     

Variations in the pace of mortality decline in elderly in 7 Northwestern European countries between 1950-1999: the impact of smoking

OBJECTIVE: Examination of the variations in the pace of old-age (80+) mortality decline in 7 Northwestern European countries for the period 1950-1999, and the impact of smoking DESIGN: Retrospective. METHOD: The population mortality data of 7 Northwestern European countries were collated according to year of death for a 50 year period (1950-1999), single year of age (60+ and 80+) and sex. Both all-cause and non-smoking-related mortality were analysed. In addition, a comparison was made with the pace of mortality decline at younger age among the same cohorts. Regression and correlation analyses were used. RESULTS: Marked variations in the pace of old-age mortality decline were found between countries, periods and sexes. While mortality declines were constantly strong in France and England and Wales, modest declines or even increases in mortality rate were observed in the 1950s in the Nordic countries, and since the 1980s in Denmark, The Netherlands, and (for men only) Norway. For non-smoking-related mortality, a high and consistent pace ofmortality decline was observed. The declines showed a clear cohort pattern, with the smallest declines or even increases for men born between 1890 and 1899, compared to an increased pace of mortality decline among women born between 1847 and 1937. Among men, but not women, the pace of old-age mortality decline correlated with the pace of mortality decline at ages 60-69 among the same cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Variations in the pace of old-age mortality decline are strongly influenced by smoking and probably also by other factors originating earlier in life. For future decades, substantial further declines in old-age mortality may be expected, even though rates of change in specific countries and periods would be difficult to predict.     

Birth weight and perinatal mortality: a comparison of "optimal" birth weight in seven Western European countries

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that a population's entire birth weight distribution may be shifted towards higher or lower birth weights, and that optimal birth weight may be lower in populations with a lower average birth weight. We evaluated this hypothesis for seven western European countries. METHODS: We obtained data on all singleton births (N = 1,372,092) and extended perinatal deaths (stillbirths plus neonatal deaths; N = 7,900) occurring in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Scotland, the Netherlands, and Flanders (Belgium) in 1993-1995. We assessed whether countries differed in the mode of their birth weight distribution and in the birth weight associated with the lowest perinatal mortality, and then correlated the two. RESULTS: Substantial international differences were found in the mode of the birth weight distribution, which ranged between 3384 gm in Flanders and 3628 gm in Finland. The position of the minimum of the perinatal mortality curve also differed considerably, ranging between 3755 gm in Flanders and 4305 gm in Norway. There was a strong relation between the two: for every 100 gm increase in modal birth weight, optimal birth weight was 170 gm higher (95% confidence interval = 104-236 gm). CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm those of previous studies that compared two populations. To improve the identification of small babies at high risk of perinatal death, population-specific standards for birth weight should be developed and used.     

Infant mortality: comparison between two birth cohorts from Southeast and Northeast, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To obtain population estimates and profile risk factors for infant mortality in two birth cohorts and compare them among cities of different regions in Brazil. METHODS: In Ribeir?o Preto, southeast Brazil, infant mortality was determined in a third of hospital live births (2,846 singleton deliveries) in 1994. In S?o Luís, northeast Brazil, data were obtained using systematic sampling of births stratified by maternity unit (2,443 singleton deliveries) in 1997-1998. Mothers answered standardized questionnaires shortly after delivery and information on infant deaths was retrieved from hospitals, registries and the States Health Secretarys' Office. The relative risk (RR) was estimated by Poisson regression. RESULTS: In S?o Luís, the infant mortality rate was 26.6/1,000 live births, the neonatal mortality rate was 18.4/1,000 and the post-neonatal mortality rate was 8.2/1,000, all higher than those observed in Ribeir?o Preto (16.9, 10.9 and 6.0 per 1,000, respectively). Adjusted analysis revealed that previous stillbirths (RR=3.67 vs 4.13) and maternal age <18 years (RR=2.62 vs 2.59) were risk factors for infant mortality in the two cities. Inadequate prenatal care (RR=2.00) and male sex (RR=1.79) were risk factors in S?o Luís only, and a dwelling with 5 or more residents was a protective factor (RR=0.53). In Ribeir?o Preto, maternal smoking was associated with infant mortality (RR=2.64). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to socioeconomic inequalities, differences in access to and quality of medical care between cities had an impact on infant mortality rates.     

Health-related quality of life and mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism: a prospective cohort study in seven European countries

Quality of Life Research - Little is known about the quality of life following pulmonary embolism (PE). The aim of the study was to assess the 12-month illness burden in terms of health-related...     

Trends in cancer mortality in central European countries: The effect of age, birth cohort and time-period

An analysis of changes in mortality from major cancer sitesand all cancer sites combined in 6 central European countries,considered as a Western group of countries [Germany (the formerFRG), Switzerland and Austria) and an Eastern group of countries(Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary) is presented. Cancer mortalityand population data have been obtained from the World HealthOrganization Mortality Database and are available over at least20 years. They have been analysed using age-period-cohort modelsand birth-cohort and time-period effects are presented graphically.The group of Eastern countries shows consistent and continuingincreases in male lung cancer risk in contrast to the patternin the group of Western countries, where after increases inolder cohorts, the risk has stabilized or gone down in malecohorts born after around 1910. Steady and continuous increaseshave been, in general, observed for women In both groups ofcountries. All tobacco- and alcohol-related cancers considereddemonstrate very similar patterns in men: an initial decreaseIn mortality by birth cohort with a subsequent Increase In morerecently born cohorts. While all the countries considered demonstratecontinuing decreases in stomach cancer risk for both sexes,cohort-based increases have been observed In Eastern countriesfor colorectal cancer, prostate cancer and female breast cancer.These results demonstrate the magnitude of the increasing mortalityfrom tobacco- and alcohol-related cancers In the countries consideredand emphasize the importance and potential of public healthmeasures In preventing such increases continuing in the future.     

Associations between particulate matter elements and early-life pneumonia in seven birth cohorts: Results from the ESCAPE and TRANSPHORM projects

Evidence for a role of long-term particulate matter exposure on acute respiratory infections is growing. However, which components of particulate matter may be causative remains largely unknown. We assessed associations between eight particulate matter elements and early-life pneumonia in seven birth cohort studies (N_total = 15,980): BAMSE (Sweden), GASPII (Italy), GINIplus and LISAplus (Germany), INMA (Spain), MAAS (United Kingdom) and PIAMA (The Netherlands). Annual average exposure to copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium and zinc, each respectively derived from particles with aerodynamic diameters ≤ 10 μm (PM₁₀) and 2.5 μm (PM_2.5), were estimated using standardized land use regression models and assigned to birth addresses. Cohort-specific associations between these exposures and parental reports of physician-diagnosed pneumonia between birth and two years were assessed using logistic regression models adjusted for host and environmental covariates and total PM₁₀ or PM_2.5 mass. Combined estimates were calculated using random-effects meta-analysis. There was substantial within and between-cohort variability in element concentrations. In the adjusted meta-analysis, pneumonia was weakly associated with zinc derived from PM₁₀ (OR: 1.47 (95% CI: 0.99, 2.18) per 20 ng/m³ increase). No other associations with the other elements were consistently observed. The independent effect of particulate matter mass remained after adjustment for element concentrations. In conclusion, associations between particulate matter mass exposure and pneumonia were not explained by the elements we investigated. Zinc from PM₁₀ was the only element which appeared independently associated with a higher risk of early-life pneumonia. As zinc is primarily attributable to non-tailpipe traffic emissions, these results may suggest a potential adverse effect of non-tailpipe emissions on health.     

The mortality divide in India: the differential contributions of gender, caste, and standard of living across the life course

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the contributions of gender, caste, and standard of living to inequalities in mortality across the life course in India. METHODS: We conducted a multilevel cross-sectional analysis of individual mortality, using the 1998-1999 Indian National Family Health Survey data for 529321 individuals from 26 states. RESULTS: Substantial mortality differentials were observed between the lowest and highest standard-of-living quintiles across all age groups, ranging from an odds ratio (OR) of 4.61 (95% confidence interval [CI]=2.98, 7.13) in the age group 2 to 5 years to an OR of 1.97 (95% CI=1.68, 2.32) in the age group 45 to 64 years. Excess mortality for girls was evident only for the age group 2 to 5 years (OR=1.33, 95% CI=1.13, 1.58). Substantial caste differentials were observed at the beginning and end stages of life. Area variation in mortality is partially a result of the compositional effects of household standard of living and caste. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality burden, across the life course in India, falls disproportionately on economically disadvantaged and lower-caste groups. Residual state-level variation in mortality suggests an underlying ecology to the mortality divide in India.     

Black-white inequalities in mortality and life expectancy, 1933-1999: implications for healthy people 2010

OBJECTIVES: Optimistic predictions for the Healthy People 2010 goals of eliminating racial/ethnic disparities in health have been made based on absolute improvements in life expectancy and mortality. This study sought to determine whether there is evidence of relative improvement (a more valid measure of inequality) in life expectancy and mortality, and whether such improvement, if demonstrated, predicts future success in eliminating disparities. METHODS: Historical data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the Census Bureau were used to predict future trends in relative mortality and life expectancy, employing an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Excess mortality and time lags in mortality and life expectancy for blacks relative to whites were also estimated. RESULTS: Based on data for 1945 to 1999, forecasts for relative black:white age-adjusted, all-cause mortality and white:black life expectancy at birth showed trends toward increasing disparities. From 1979, when the Healthy People initiative began, to 1998, the black:white ratio of age-adjusted, gender-specific mortality increased for all but one of nine causes of death that accounted for 83.4% of all US mortality in 1998. From 1980 to 1998, average numbers of excess deaths per day among American blacks relative to whites increased by 20%. American blacks experienced 4.3 to 4.5 million premature deaths relative to whites in 1940-1999. CONCLUSIONS: The rationale that underlies the optimistic Healthy People 2010 forecasts, that future success can be built on a foundation of past success, is not supported when relative measures of inequality are used. There has been no sustained decrease in black-white inequalities in age-adjusted mortality or life expectancy at birth at the national level since 1945. Without fundamental changes, most probably related to the ways medical and public health practitioners are trained, evaluated, and compensated for prevention-related activities, as well as further research on translating the findings of prevention studies into clinical practice, it is likely that simply reducing disparities in access to care and/or medical treatment will be insufficient. Millions of premature deaths will continue to occur among African Americans.     

The importance of the political and the social in explaining mortality differentials among the countries of the OECD, 1950-1998.

This article analyzes (within the conceptual frame defined in the previous article) the impact of political variables such as time of government by political parties (social democratic, Christian democratic or conservative, liberal, and ex-dictatorial that have governed the OECD countries during the 1950-1998 period) and their electoral support on (1) redistributional policies in the labor market and in the welfare state; (2) the income inequalities measured by Theil and Gini indexes; and (3) health indicators, such as infant mortality and life expectancy. This analysis is carried out statistically by a bivariate and a multivariate analysis (a pooled cross-sectional study). Both analyses show that political variables play an important role in defining how public and social policies determine the levels of inequalities and affect the level of infant mortality. In general, political parties more committed to redistributional policies, such as social democratic parties, are the most successful in reducing inequalities and improving infant mortality. Less evidence exists, however, on effects on life expectancy. The article also quantifies statistically the relationship between the political and the policy variables and between these variables and the dependent variables--that is, the health indicators.     

Association between forgone care and household income among the elderly in five Western European countries – analyses based on survey data from the SHARE-study

Background  

Studies on the association between access to health care and household income have rarely included an assessment of 'forgone care', but this indicator could add to our understanding of the inverse care law. We hypothesize that reporting forgone care is more prevalent in low income groups.     

广州市2006-2009年气温与居民每日死亡人数的时间序列研究

目的 研究2006-2009年广州市气温与居民死亡人数的关系.方法 应用泊松分布的广义相加模型分析时间序列资料,控制时间的长期趋势(季节)、星期几效应、空气污染、其他气象因素等的混杂后,分析广州市日平均气温与每日死亡人数之间的关系.结果 广州市日平均气温与每日总死亡人数呈"U"形.广州市最适宜日平均气温为19.7℃,高于19.7 ℃时,平均气温每升高1 ℃,每日总死亡的风险增加3.0%(RR=1.030,95%CI:1.011～1.050);当日平均气温不超过19.7 ℃时,平均气温每升高1 ℃,每日总死亡的风险减少3.3%(RR=0.967,95%CI:0.936～0.997),循环系统疾病死亡风险减少3.6%(RR=0.964,95%CI:0.935～0.994).结论 广州市日平均气温与居民每日死亡人数有关系,应该采取有效的预防措施减少气温相关死亡的发生.

Abstract：

Objective To study the association between temperature and daily mortality from June 1, 2006 to December 31, 2009 in Guangzhou. Methods Time series approach was used to estimate the impact of temperature on the rates of total and cause-specific daily mortality. We fitted generalized additive Poisson regression using non-parametric smooth functions to control for the long-term time trend, day of week, air pollution and other weather variables. Results A slight sloping U-like relationship between the total mortality and temperature was found, with an optimum average temperature (temperature with lowest mortality risk) value of 19.7 ℃ in Guangzhou. For temperature above the optimum value, the relative risk of total mortality increased by 3.0% (RR=1.030,95%CI: 1.011-1.050) for each increase of degree in Celsius. For average temperature below the optimum value, the relative risk of total mortality and diseases of circulatory system had a 3.3%(RR=0.967,95%CI: 0.936-0.997 ) decrease and a 3.6% ( RR= 0.964,95%CI:0.935-0.994 ) increase,for each degree of Celsius increase, respectively. Conclusion Our findings showed that the temperature had an impact on the daily mortality in Guangzhou. Countermeasures needed to be taken to reduce the temperature related mortality.     

Can differences in medical drug compliance between European countries be explained by social factors: analyses based on data from the European Social Survey, round 2

Background  

Non-compliance with medication is a major health problem. Cultural differences may explain different compliance patterns. The size of the compliance burden and the impact of socio-demographic and socio-economic status within and across countries in Europe have, however, never been analysed in one survey. The aim of this study was to analyse 1) medical drug compliance in different European countries with respect to socio-demographic and socio-economic factors, and to examine 2) whether cross-national differences could be explained by these factors.     

Socioeconomic disadvantage in childhood and across the life course and all-cause mortality and physical function in adulthood: evidence from the Alameda County Study

OBJECTIVE: To measure the childhood and life course socioeconomic exposures of people born between 1871 and 1949, and then to estimate the probability of death between 1965 and 1994, the probability of functional limitation in 1994, and the combined probability of dying or experiencing functional limitation during this period. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND DESIGN: Data were from the Alameda County Study (California) and pertained to people aged 17-94 years (n = 6,627) in 1965 (baseline). Socioeconomic position (SEP) in childhood was based on respondent's reports of their father's occupation, and life course disadvantage was measured by cross-classifying childhood SEP and the respondent's education and household income in 1965. The health outcomes were all-cause mortality (n = 2,420) and functional limitation measured using the Nagi index (n = 453, 17.4% of those alive in 1994). Relationships were examined before and after adjustment for changed socioeconomic circumstances after 1965. RESULTS: Those from a low SEP in childhood, and those exposed to a greater number of episodes of disadvantage over the life course before 1965, were subsequently more likely to die, to report functional limitation and to experience the greatest health-related burden. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality, functional limitation and overall health-related burden in middle and late adulthood are shaped by socioeconomic conditions experienced during childhood and cumulative disadvantage over the life course. The contributions made to adult health by childhood SEP and accumulated disadvantage suggest that each constitutes a distinct socioeconomic influence that may require different policy responses and intervention options.