Twelve-year course and outcome predictors of anorexia nervosa

OBJECTIVE: The current study presents the long-term course of anorexia nervosa (AN) over 12 years in a large sample of 103 patients diagnosed according to criteria in the 4th ed. of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV). METHOD: Assessments were made at the beginning of therapy, at the end of therapy, at the 2-year follow-up, at the 6-year follow-up, and at the 12-year follow-up. Self-rating and an expert-rating interview data were obtained. RESULTS: The participation rate at the 12-year follow-up was 88% of those alive. There was substantial improvement during therapy, a moderate (in many instances nonsignificant) decline during the first 2 years posttreatment, and further improvement from 3 to 12 years posttreatment. Based on a global 12-year outcome score, 27.5% had a good outcome, 25.3% an intermediate outcome, 39.6% had a poor outcome, and 7 (7.7%) were deceased. At the 12-year follow-up 19.0% had AN, 9.5% had bulimia nervosa-purging type (BN-P), 19.0% were classified as eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS). A total of 52.4% showed no major DSM-IV eating disorder and 0% had binge eating disorder (BED). Systematic-strictly empirically based-model building resulted in a parsimonious model including four predictors of unfavorable 12-year outcome explaining 45% of the variance, that is, sexual problems, impulsivity, long duration of inpatient treatment, and long duration of an eating disorder. CONCLUSION: Mortality was high and symptomatic recovery protracted. Impulsivity, symptom severity, and chronicity were the important factors for predicting the 12-year outcome.     

Secular trends in the incidence of anorexia nervosa: Integrative review of population-based studies

Objective and Method: Aggregating across retrospective cohort samples, this integrative review synthesizes the findings of 12 cumulative incidence studies (45 hypotheses) on anorexia nervosa secular trends. Results: (1) The female/male anorexia incidence rate ratio was estimated to be 8.20, 18.46 versus 2.25 cases per 100,000 per year, p < .05; (2) female teenagers experienced anorexia at a rate fivefold greater than other women, 50.82 versus 10.37 incident cases per 100,000 per year, p < .001; (3) no secular trend or change in the incidence of anorexia was observed among teenagers, while a near threefold increase was observed over the past 40 years among women in their 20s and 30s, 6.28 (1950–1964) versus 17.70 (1980–1992) cases per 100,000 per year, p < .05; and (4) the two cohort characteristics of age, and the age by year interaction accounted for nearly two thirds of the variability among anorexia incidence estimates, R² = .614, F(2,27) = 21.49, p < .001. After the two factors of age and the Age × Year interaction were accounted for, none of the other study characteristics, including study year(s), were found to be significantly associated with anorexia incidence, that is, a main effect of time was not observed. Discussion: The integrative evidence across the population-based epidemiologic studies covering 40 years in this field suggests strongly that, overall, the incidence of anorexia nervosa, particularly among those very young women at greatest risk of experiencing it, has not increased significantly. However, the risk does seem to have increased significantly among women in their 20s and 30s. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Int J Eat Disord 23: 347–352, 1998.