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1.
云南省HIV/AIDS预测   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
目的 预测未来10年云南省HIV/AIDS流行趋势。方法 定性与定量相结合,数学模型、现患率趋势估计及经验分布函数相结合的方法。结果 用9种方案描述云南省未来10年HIV/AIDS流行趋势,指标包括未来各年HIV感染人数、新增人数和累计人数,及AIDS现患人数、新增人数和累计人数。我们估计目前云南省HIV感染人数为5.2-5.4万,到2005年时增加到8-20万,到2010年时再增加到11-62万。目前AIDS患者累计人数为500-8000人,到2010年将增加到6-12万。结论 未来10年云南省HIV仍以在吸毒人群中流行为主,但通过其它途径感染HIV的人数占总HIV感染人数的比例也会不断增加,同时艾滋病将会造成未来孤儿数不断增加,估计2000年云南省艾滋病孤儿为2千人,到2010年为2万人。本文还讨论了非安全性注射问题,这是一个可能导致艾滋病流行的不可忽视的潜在因素。  相似文献   

2.
目的 预测未来10年云南省HIV/AIDS流行趋势。方法 定性与定量相结合,数学模型、现患率趋势估计及经验分布函数相结合的方法。结果 用9种方案描述云南省未来10年HIV/AIDS流行趋势,指标包括未来各年HIV感染人数、新增人数和累计人数,及AIDS现患人数、新增人数和累计人数。我们估计目前云南省HIV感染人数为5.2~5.4万,到2005年时增加到8~20万,到2010年时再增加到11~62万。目前AIDS患者累计人数为 5 000~8 000人,到 2010年将增加到 6~12万。结论 未来 10年云南省 HIV仍以在吸毒人群中流行为主,但通过其它途径感染HIV的人数占总HIV感染人数的比例也会不断增加,同时艾滋病将会造成未来孤儿数不断增加,估计2000年云南省艾滋病孤儿为2千人,到2010年为2万人。本文还讨论了非安全注射问题,这是一个可能导致艾滋病流行的不可忽视的潜在因素。  相似文献   

3.
广东省AIDS病人的医疗保健费用预测   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
目的 预测艾滋病(AIDS)流行对广东省社会经济造成的直接危害——医疗保健费用激增的程度。方法 通过定性调查和病历研究,揭示广东省艾滋病病毒(HIV)/AIDS发生发展的一般规律,结合社会经济发展相关指标进行假设推断,计算个体医疗保健花费和2000~2010年广东省HIV/AIDS累计医疗费用。结果 1999年1例AIDS患者的门诊医疗费用约1.6万元/年,住院医疗费用约10.17万元/年;到2010年,1例AIDS患者含抗病毒治疗在内的门诊医疗费用约8.08万元/年,住院医疗费用约12.65万元/年。随着AIDS的流行,广东省2000~2010年AIDS医疗花费累计将达38.9亿~58.8亿元。结论 AIDS在危害居民身心健康的同时,将造成极大的医疗经济负担,目前应抓住机遇,利用一切可以利用的资源遏制AIDS的流行。  相似文献   

4.
西昌市静脉吸毒人群HIV/AIDS流行趋势分析   总被引:8,自引:1,他引:8  
目的 在西昌市静脉吸毒人群中,利用传播动力学数学模型预测未来几年艾滋病病毒(HIV)伎滋病(AIDS)的流行趋势。方法 对当地静脉吸毒人群进行HIV感染横断面和前瞻性队列研究获得的有关数据,利用离散型HIV/AIDS传播动力学数学模型进行分析。结果 建立了静脉吸毒人群中的HIV/AIDS传播动力学模型,给出了有关参数的确定;通过数值模拟对未来几年HIV感染情况进行了预测。结论 由模型可以看出:如果不采取干预措施,到2010年西昌市静脉吸毒人群中的累计HIV感染者/AIDS患者人数约为1070,HIV感染率约为18%;如果采取适当的干预措施,使得HIV感染者的传染性降低50%,则到2010年累计HIV感染者/AIDS患者人数约为630.HIV感染率约为8%。因此.对吸毒人群施加必要的干预措施.就变成一项非常有意义的工作。  相似文献   

5.
福建省AIDS流行特征及趋势分析   总被引:17,自引:0,他引:17  
目的分析福建省艾滋病病毒/艾滋病(HIV/AIDS)流行现状、特征、影响因素及趋势,为制定AIDS防治策略提供依据。方法对全省1987~2003年AIDS常规监测、高危人群哨点监测、流行病学调查及实验室资料进行分析。结果自1987年发现首例AIDS病人至2003年底,累计报告发现HIV抗体阳性者457例,其中AIDS病人155例,死亡110例。HIV感染者/AIDS病例主要分布在福州、泉州等沿海经济发达地区,从境外感染为主转向境内蔓延扩散,经异性性接触感染是福建省HIV传播的主要途径,并已出现母婴传播的病例。HIV-1E亚型是福建省主要流行株。结论福建省AIDS流行速度明显加快,在静脉吸毒人群中也存在流行的危险,应采取措施预防HIV从商危人群向一般人群传播,加大健康教育、行为干预和监测力度。  相似文献   

6.
HIV传播动力学模型的研究   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
目的 用数学模型来预测中国近几年艾滋病病毒感染伎滋病(HIV/AIDS)的流行情况。方法 用离散型HIV传播动力学的基本模型和分阶段模型进行了分析。结果 给出了基本模型和对HIV感染者进行分阶段的模型,确定了一些有关参数,并用:Matlab软件对未来几年HIV感染者和AIDS患者人数进行了预测。结论 未来几年内中国的HIV感染者和AIDS患者人数将会继续增加。从两种模型可以看出:如果对AIDS不加有力的控制,到2010年中国的HIV感染者人数将达到1000万人左右,AIDS患者人数约达到65万人左右。因此,预防和控制AIDS的发生及对其流行动态的研究已是一件非常紧迫的任务。  相似文献   

7.
大连市沿海渔民HIV感染现状调查及相关危险因素分析   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
目的:调查大连市沿海渔民HIV感染状况及影响艾滋病感染的相关危险因素,为制定此人群的艾滋病干预政策提供依据。方法:一次性集中采血调查,连续两年对渔民人群进行非关联监测。结果:在目标人群中共发现7例HIV感染者,1例病人,另有1例HIV感染者为渔民配偶,以上9例HIV/AIDS者占大连市历年发现的HIV/AIDS者总和的23.68%,占本项目实施期间大连市发现的HIV/AIDS者总和的42.86%。结论:渔民已成为艾滋病高危人群,HIV有可能在此人群中传播扩散,应立即对渔民及其相关人群开展艾滋病高危行为干预。  相似文献   

8.
潍坊市1992~2003年艾滋病监测资料分析   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
目的 了解潍坊市艾滋病/艾滋病病毒(AIDS/HIV)患者流行病学特征,分析其流行趋势,为相关部门采取措施提供科学依据。方法 对潍坊市1992~2003年艾滋病重点人群血清学监测结果归纳整理,进行流行病学分析。结果 12年来全市共检测血清119577人份,发现HIV阳性者11例,检出率为9.20/10万,其中AIDS4例(死亡3例),22~38岁10例,6月龄婴儿1例。农民8例;外地传人7例,本地感染4例;男女比例7:4。血液、性接触及母婴传播途径均有。1992~1997年检出HIV阳性1例,1998~2002年检出3例,2003年检出7例。结论 潍坊市属艾滋病低流行区,但有向快速增长发展的趋势。今后应加大监测力度,加强医务人员专业知识培训和居民的宣传教育。  相似文献   

9.
陕西省AIDS监测情况及分析   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:4  
目的:为厂解陕西省艾滋病(AIDS)的流行现状,预测流行趋势:方法:对2001年所收集到的资料进行统计与分析:结果:全省共检测各类人群180 720人次,检出艾滋病病毒(HIV)抗体阳性者47例,阳性检出率为2.60/万;首次发现母婴传播的HIV感染者和外籍HIV感染者:结论:陕西省AIDS的流行速度明显加快。  相似文献   

10.
江苏省艾滋病流行特征分析及防治对策的探讨   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
目的 分析江苏省艾滋病(AIDS)流行特征及影响因素,为制定防治策略提供依据。方法 分析江苏省1991-2006年艾滋病疫情、监测和流行病学资料。结果 至2005年底累计报告HIV感染者1103例,病人255例,死亡142例;不同人群中HIV的感染率不同(χ^2=231.126,P〈0.01)。HIV感染者/病人主要分布在经济发达城市,外省籍感染者占61.92%;静脉吸毒、异性性接触是主要感染途径,分别占45.39%、22.75%;C亚型(40.48%)和B^+亚型变种(38.10%)是江苏省的主要流行株。结论 江苏省为艾滋病低流行区,疫情分布广,有向一般人群加速传播的趋势。要加大主动监测力度,早期发现病人并实施有效管理。  相似文献   

11.
The immunoneuroendocrine role of melatonin   总被引:19,自引:0,他引:19  
Abstract: A tight, physiological link between the pineal gland and the immune system is emerging from a series of experimental studies. This link might reflect the evolutionary connection between self-recognition and reproduction. Pinealectomy or other experimental methods which inhibit melatonin synthesis and secretion induce a state of immunodepression which is counteracted by melatonin. In general, melatonin seems to have an immunoenhancing effect that is particularly apparent in immunodepressive states. The negative effect of acute stress or immunosuppressive pharmacological treatments on various immune parameters are counteracted by melatonin. It seems important to note that one of the main targets of melatonin is the thymus, i.e., the central organ of the immune system. The clinical use of melatonin as an immunotherapeutic agent seems promising in primary and secondary immunodeficiencies as well as in cancer immunotherapy. The immunoenhancing action of melatonin seems to be mediated by T-helper cell-derived opioid peptides as well as by lymphokines and, perhaps, by pituitary hormones. Melatonin-induced-immuno-opioids (MHO) and lymphokines imply the presence of specific binding sites or melatonin receptors on cells of the immune system. On the other hand, lymphokines such as -γ-interferon and interleukin-2 as well as thymic hormones can modulate the synthesis of melatonin in the pineal gland. The pineal gland might thus be viewed as the crux of a sophisticated immunoneuroendocrine network which functions as an unconscious, diffuse sensory organ.  相似文献   

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Abstract: The abundance of gap junctions between rat pineal astrocytes formed by connexin43 (Cx43) was studied during development. Levels and distribution of Cx43 were measured by immunoblotting and indirect immunofluorescence, respectively. The amount of Cx43 in cells located within the gland was low until about the 7th postnatal day and increased to adult values between the 14th and 21st days postpartum. Although astrocytes, recognized by their vimentin immunoreactivity, were scarce before birth, they were abundant by the 7th postnatal day suggesting that the low levels of Cx43 found at this age corresponded to a low expression of this protein. Localization of the immunoreactivity to Cx43 and vimentin showed a close correlation, indicating that mature or immature pineal astrocytes form gap junctions made of Cx43. Since Cx43 levels attained their adult values at about the time the innervation and the functional state of the gland reached maturity (2–3 weeks after birth), it is proposed that astrocyte gap junctions are involved in the function of the adult rat pineal gland.  相似文献   

14.
Duodenal diverticula are a relatively common condition. They are asymptomatic, unless they become complicated, with perforation being the rarest but most severe complication. Surgical treatment is the most frequently performed approach. We report the case of a patient with a perforated duodenal diverticulum, which was diagnosed early and treated conservatively with antibiotics and percutaneous drainage of secondary retroperitoneal abscesses. We suggest this method could be an acceptable option for the management of similar cases, provided that the patient is in good general condition and without septic signs.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract: Herein we documented the response of pineal melatonin production to electrolytes known to be effective on pineal function in view of a possible circadian stage dependence. We studied the release of melatonin by perifused rat pineal glands at 2 different circadian stages corresponding to the middle of the light and dark periods, i.e., respectively, 7 and 19 HALO (Hours After Light Onset, L:D = 12:12). The initial efflux rates were, as expected, much higher in the perifusates of glands removed from rats sacrificed during the dark phase than of those removed during the light phase. After 3 hr of perifusion, melatonin release reached similar levels which were found constant up to the 8th hr of perifusion, whatever the circadian stage. Perifusion of the glands with physiological concentrations for the rat of calcium (5.2 mmol/1) and magnesium (1.34 mmol/1) resulted in a stimulatory effect on the pineal glands removed from rats sacrificed in the middle of the dark period (19 HALO), whereas no effects were observed on the pineal glands removed from rats sacrificed during the light (7 HALO). Lithium (0.28 and 0.55 mmol/1) was ineffective on melatonin release in pineal glands removed 7 and 19 HALO. Our results show differences in the initial efflux rates of melatonin and in the response of perifused pineal glands to calcium and magnesium according to the circadian stage.  相似文献   

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Abstract: The use of antisera raised against bovine growth hormone (GH) and ovine prolactin (PRL) enabled the detection of related immunoreactive (ir) sequences of proteins in ovine pineal tissue. The isolation of PRL-like ir-material was accomplished using a 0.25 M ammonium sulphate (pH 5.5) extraction followed by ethanol precipitation, whereas the resulting 2.0 M ammonium sulphate (pH 7.0) precipitate contained a GH-like immunoreactivity. Gel chromatography of the GH-like immunoreactivity (Sephadex G-100) indicated the presence of several GH-like fragments ranging in the Mr range of 7,000 to 55,000. Analyses of the PRL-like ir-material found in pineal tissue on HPLC using a TSK 545-DEAE column led to the resolution into a single peak of immunoreactivity. A single peak of activity was also observed following chromatofocusing and hydrophobic interaction chromatography of the ir-peak from the TSK 545-DEAE column. The PRL-like ir-material inhibited the binding of [125I]ovine PRL-S14 to anti-ovine PRL antibodies without showing an affinity for binding to anti-rat PRL or anti-bovine GH antibodies. Scatchard analysis of the binding of pineal PRL-like ir-material and pituitary ovine PRL-S14 to liver membranes from day-20 pregnant rats revealed similar affinity constants (Ka of 4.7 ± 0.2 × 109 M-1). In addition, the replication of Nb 2 Node rat lymphoma cells was stimulated by pineal PRL-like ir-material, an effect known to be specific for lactogenic hormones. The pineal PRL-like immunoreactivity appeared on sodium dodecyl sulfate polyacrylamide gels as a single major band of Mr 24,000. The functional status of PRL-and GH-like ir-material in the ovine pineal remains to be determined, but evidence is presented that the overall protein synthesis rate of the rat pineal responded to circulating concentrations of PRL.  相似文献   

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PURPOSE: Individuals who are seropositive for the human immunodeficiency virus are at high risk for opportunistic infection and anorectal disorders. Little prospective information is available regarding anorectal pathogens in these patients. METHODS: One hundred sixty-three HIV-seropositive patients presented to the colorectal clinic between 1989 and 1992. Forty-seven (29 percent) patients were thought to have an infectious process and were prospectively studied using a standardized multiculture protocol. RESULTS: Mean age was 33 (range, 19–59) years. All were male; high-risk behavior accounted for 87 percent of HIV transmissions. Presenting complaints included anorectal pain (79 percent), pus per anum (28 percent), and blood per anum (26 percent). Examination revealed perianal tenderness (60 percent), condyloma (38 percent), perianal ulcers (38 percent), and anal fissures (34 percent). Sixty-six sets of cultures were performed; 28 patients had one set, 15 had two sets, and 4 had three sets. Thirty-two of these 47 patients (68 percent) had positive cultures including herpes (50 percent), cytomegalovirus (25 percent),Neisseria gonorrhoeae (16 percent), chlamydia (16 percent), acidfast bacilli (2 percent), and others (9 percent). Six of 32 patients with positive cultures had more than one organism cultured. Sixteen (50 percent) patients with positive cultures were treated medically, 8 (25 percent) were treated surgically and 8 (25 percent) were treated with both modalities. Sixty-one procedures were performed on 17 patients for condylomata. Eighteen patients had 20 procedures for abscesses, 50 percent of whom had positive cultures for other than common bowel flora; all improved. Fourteen patients underwent 33 procedures for perianal fistulas.Mycobacterium fortuitum was cultured from one patient who required 13 procedures for abscesses and fistulas. Forty-five (96 percent) patients were followed for an average of 12.5 months ±2.9 SEM (range, 1–94 months). Symptoms were improved or resolved in 22 of 32 (69 percent) patients with positive cultures and in 11 of 13 (84 percent) with negative cultures. CONCLUSIONS: Specific pathogens may often be identified in human immunodeficiency virus-seropositive patients with anorectal disorders if aggressively sought. Although patients without specific pathogens identified may be expected to improve with planned empiric treatment, positive identification allows more directed therapy.  相似文献   

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