Preoperative arterial blood lactate levels as a predictor of hospital mortality in patients with a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

Purpose

To establish if preoperative arterial blood lactate (Lac) is a factor related to hospital death for patients with a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA).

Methods

The subjects were 55 patients who underwent surgery for an rAAA in a single institution between July, 2000 and November, 2009. Patients were divided into a survivor group and a non-survivor group. We compared the preoperative Lac levels and other data between the groups.

Results

There were ten hospital deaths. On univariate analysis, preoperative Lac levels, shock vital, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, Hardman index ≥3, and Glasgow aneurysm score ≥84 were significantly higher and preoperative hemoglobin was significantly lower in the non-survivor group. The postoperative mortality rate tended to increase with preoperative Lac levels. The mortality rate of patients with a preoperative Lac level higher than 9 mmol/l was 86 %. Those factors that had significant association with hospital mortality on univariate analysis were consecutively analyzed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that a preoperative Lac level >9 mmol/l was the only independent risk factor of hospital mortality.

Conclusion

The preoperative Lac level of patients with a rAAA may be a predictor of their prognosis.     

老年患者脊柱手术术后谵妄危险因素分析的回顾性研究

目的:探讨老年患者脊柱手术术后谵妄的发生率及相关危险因素。方法:采用回顾性分析2016年1月至2018年11月收治的老年脊柱手术病例436例,根据术后是否发生谵妄分为谵妄组和非谵妄组。记录患者的性别、年龄、身体质量指数,糖尿病史,冠心病史,慢性阻塞性肺疾病史,术前白细胞计数,术前红细胞比容,术前血红蛋白水平,手术方式,手术时间,麻醉时间,美国麻醉医师协会(ASA)评分,心功能分级,术中失血量,术中输血量,术中芬太尼、异丙酚和地佐辛的用量,术后白细胞计数,术后红细胞比容,术后血红蛋白水平,术后电解质(钠离子、钾离子),采用单因素Logistic回归分析有统计学意义的危险因素后进行多元Logistic回归分析进一步探讨独立危险因素。结果:纳入436例中112例老年患者术后出现谵妄,发生率25.68%。谵妄组与非谵妄组在年龄、术前白细胞计数、术前红细胞比容、术后红细胞比容、术后血红蛋白水平、术后钠离子浓度、麻醉时间、ASA评分、心功能评分、术中失血量、术后地佐辛使用量、糖尿病史、冠心病史、慢性阻塞性肺疾病史方面差异有统计学意义(P0.05),通过多因素Logistic回归分析显示年龄、ASA评分、术后地佐辛量、慢性阻塞性肺疾病史是老年患者脊柱手术术后谵妄发生的独立危险因素。结论:患者高龄72岁、ASA评分2分、地佐辛镇痛药物的使用以及患者合并慢性阻塞性肺疾病史是术后谵妄发生的独立危险因素。     

ASA 评分在肝癌患者外科治疗风险评估中的作用

目的：探讨ASA评分对肝癌患者外科治疗风险评估的价值。 方法：回顾2006年1月—2010年12月419例原发性肝癌肝切除患者围手术期临床资料,分析患者ASA评分与临床因素的关系,并对可能的相关因素作单因素筛选后行多因素回归分析,分析肝癌术后并发症及术中输血有关的影响因素。 结果：统计分析显示,肝癌患者术前并发症及术前血红蛋白影响ASA评分;随着ASA评分上升,患者术中失血量、输血量、术后并发症及住院天数明显高增加（均P<0.05）。多因素回归分析结果显示,ASA评分、失血量、肝硬化、年龄、丙氨酸转氨酶（ALT）水平是术后并发症发生的独立影响因素（均P<0.05）;ASA评分、手术时间、肿瘤直径是术中输血的独立影响因素（均P<0.05）。 结论：ASA评分是肝癌患者围手术期风险较好的早期预测指标。     

Factors affecting morbidity and mortality in incarcerated abdominal wall hernias

Background Incarcerated abdominal wall hernia cases may necessitate emergency interventions, but under such circumstances morbidity and mortality rates may increase. The aim of this study was to investigate the factors that affect morbidity and mortality in patients with incarcerated abdominal wall hernias who underwent emergency surgery. Methods Urgent surgical interventions due to incarcerated abdominal wall hernias were performed in 182 patients in our clinics between January 1998 and January 2006. Factors that affect morbidity and mortality in incarcerated abdominal wall hernias were investigated retrospectively by browsing the archives. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate parameters that affect morbidity and mortality. Results Morbidity and mortality occurred in 43 (23.6%) and 9 (4.9%) patients, respectively. A symptomatic period of longer than 8 h, presence of accompanying disease, high American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) score, general anesthesia, presence of strangulation, and necrosis were found to affect morbidity significantly by univariate analysis. Necrosis was the sole factor affecting morbidity significantly by multivariate analysis. Advanced age, presence of accompanying disease, high ASA score, presence of strangulation, necrosis, and hernia repair with graft were found to affect mortality significantly by univariate analysis; however, necrosis was the sole factor affecting mortality significantly by multivariate analysis. Conclusions Intestinal necrosis, which was followed by bowel resection, was the sole factor affecting morbidity and mortality using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Emergency surgery is required for incarcerated abdominal wall hernias before intestinal necrosis develops.     

Preoperative predictors of mortality risk in ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

A retrospective review of 106 cases of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm was undertaken to determine whether analysis of preoperative variables might be predictive of death in this condition. Thirty variables were analyzed by univariate and multivariate methods. Statistically significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors were noted for 12 of 30 factors when analyzed with univariate tests. Multivariate analysis with stepwise logistic regression demonstrated that elevation of the unmeasured anion gap, a history of congestive heart failure, and the patient's level of consciousness before operation were significantly and independently associated with death. Coefficients generated from this model allowed stratification of patients into four risk groups with respective mortality rates of 100%, 75%, 28%, and 12%. We conclude that it is possible to assign a mortality risk score to individual cases of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm on the basis of readily available clinical and laboratory parameters. A prospective study to address this question seems justified.     

Prediction of survival after 48-h of intensive care following open surgical repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictive factors for 30-day mortality after 48 h of maximal treatment in intensive care unit (ICU) after repair for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (RAAA). DESIGN: Retrospective study in the ICU of the university central hospital. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between 1999 and 2003, a total of 197 patients were admitted to emergency unit due to RAAA, and 185 of them underwent open surgical repair. A total of 138 patients survived at least 48-h and were included in a study to identify factors predictive of 30-day mortality by logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Thirty-day mortality of all RAAA patients was 46% (87/197) whereas the 30-day mortality for those alive at 48 h was 22% (31/138). Forward stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that only organ dysfunction by SOFA score (sequential organ failure assessment) at 48-h, preoperative Glasgow Aneurysm Score, and supra-renal clamping in operation were independent predictors of death. CONCLUSIONS: Degree of organ dysfunction by SOFA score was the best predictor of 30-day mortality in RAAA patients alive at 48-h after open surgical repair.     

Bipolar hemiarthroplasty in unstable intertrochanteric fractures in elderly patients. The predictive value of the Charlson Comorbidity Index in 1-year mortality

BackgroundHip fractures have a significant impact on morbidity and mortality in the elderly. Aims: We retrospectively evaluated the predictive role of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) for 1-year mortality in elderly patients with unstable intertrochanteric hip fractures (ITHF) treated with bipolar hemiarthroplasty. The secondary objective was to identify other relationships, if any, between the variables recorded and mortality.MethodsWe included ≥75-year-old patients with unstable ITHF treated with bipolar hemiarthroplasty. We recorded patient gender, age, Body Mass Index, pre-fracture walking ability (Parker Mobility score, modified Harris Hip Score), America Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), time to surgery, time to mobilization, hospital stay, and postoperative complications. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated using a ROC curve.ResultsA total of 135 patients with a mean age of 87.34 ± 5.5 years were included. The overall 1-year mortality rate was 18.5%. The CCI (OR 1.64 CI 95% 1.21–2.23; p 0.00821) and postoperative complications (OR 3.5 CI 95% 1.19–10.23 p 0.0202) were identified as independent predictors of 1-year mortality in the univariate regression and confirmed in the multivariate regression. CCI sensitivity to predict 1-year mortality was 80%.ConclusionCCI has shown acceptable sensitivity in the prediction of 1-year mortality in elderly patients with unstable ITHF treated with bipolar hemiarthroplasty. It is of utmost importance to prevent postoperative complications due to their significant impact on 1-year mortality.     

Factors Affecting the Early Mortality of Patients with Nontraumatic Colorectal Perforation

Purpose: We attempted to identify the factors associated with the early mortality of patients with nontraumatic colorectal perforation. Methods: Eighty patients who underwent surgery for nontraumatic colorectal perforation between May 1986 and December 1999 were retrospectively reviewed. Age, sex, cause of perforation, duration of symptoms, associated preoperative septic shock, concomitant disorders (including cardiac disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hemodialysis, and steroid treatment), operative findings (such as the site of perforation and the degree of peritonitis), and results of preoperative laboratory blood tests (such as the white blood cell count and platelet count) were analyzed for their association with early outcome using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Fourteen of the 80 patients died during hospitalization. According to the univariate analysis, advanced age, preoperative septic shock, concomitant disabling cardiac disease, hemodialysis, diffuse peritonitis, and a low preoperative platelet count were more frequent in the patients who died during hospitalization. According to the logistic regression analysis, preoperative septic shock (odds ratio 8.443, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.625–43.873), concomitant end-stage renal failure (odds ratio 13.641, 95% CI 1.643–113.244), and diffuse peritonitis (odds ratio 13.212, 95% CI 1.441–121.102) were the most significant factors related to in-hospital mortality. Conclusion: Early diagnosis before the patient's general condition deteriorates is a key to improving the early mortality associated with nontraumatic colorectal perforation, especially in patients with concomitant end-stage renal failure. Received: January 28, 2002 / Accepted: July 2, 2002 Reprint requests to: H. Shinkawa     

Risk factors for immediate results and long-term survival following elective open surgery for AAA. Statistical analysis of 1111 consecutively-treated patients

AIM OF THE STUDY: Perioperative and 10 years follow-up risk factors for 1111 consecutive open AAA repairs were statistically analyzed (X2-test and Log-rank test methods for univariate analysis, and logistic regression model and Cox proportional-hazard model for multivariate analysis). Overall operative mortality rate was 2.7%, and significant risk factors were: 1) univariate analysis: Age (>70 years 3.9% vs 1.5% <70 years); CAD (4.3% vs 1.9% without CAD); PAD (4.7% vs 2.0%); III-IV ASA classes (3.8% vs 0% in I-II ASA classes); 2) multivariate analysis: only ASA classes. RESULTS: Long-term survival (42.3 +/- 32.6 months) was 93% and 88% at 3 and 5 years respectively, with 0.2% graft-related deaths, and significant risk factors were 1) univariate analysis: Age (92% and 84% at 3 and 5 years in patients aged >70 vs 94% and 91% <70 years); ASA classes (91% and 87% at 3 and 5 years in ASA III-IV vs 98% and 92% in ASA I-II); CAD (92% and dell'85% vs 94% and 90% without CAD); COPD (90% and 80% vs 95% and 92% without COPD); CRF (90% and 82%, vs 94% and 89% without CRF); suprarenal aortic cross-clamping for pararenal aneurysms (91% and 77% in pararenal AAA, vs 94 % and 90% in infrarenal AAA; 2) multivariate analysis: Age; ASA classes; pararenal aneurysms. There was a close relation between number (0-5) of risk factors in each patient and early and late complications. These data are very satisfactory overall, and even in high risk patients who are routinely considered for EVAR.     

Elimination of cardiopulmonary bypass improves early survival for multivessel coronary artery bypass patients

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery performed without cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) is currently increasing in clinical practice. Decreased morbidity associated with off-pump (OP) CABG in selected risk groups examined in relatively small, single institution groups has been the focus of most recent studies. The purpose of this study was to determine the independent impact of CPB on early survival in all isolated multivessel CABG patients undergoing surgery in two large institutions with established experience in OPCABG techniques. METHODS: A review of two large databases employed by multiple surgeons in the hospitals of two institutions identified 8,758 multivessel CABG procedures performed from January 1998 through July 2000. In all, 8,449 procedures were included in a multivariate logistic regression analysis to determine the relative impact of CPB on mortality independent of known risk factors for mortality. Procedures were also divided into two treatment groups based on the use of CPB: 6,466 had CABG with CPB (CABG-CPB), 1,983 had CABG without CPB (OPCABG). Disparities between groups were identified by univariate analysis of 17 preoperative risk factors and treatment groups were compared by Parsonnet's risk stratification model. Finally, computer-matched groups based on propensity score for institution selection for OPCABG were combined and analyzed by a logistic regression model predicting risk for mortality. RESULTS: CABG-CPB was associated with increased mortality compared with OPCABG by univariate analysis, 3.5% versus 1.8%, despite a lower predicted risk in the CABG-CPB group. CPB was associated with increased mortality by multiple logistic regression analysis with an odds ratio of 1.79 (95% confidence interval = 1.24 to 2.67). An increased risk of mortality associated with CPB was also determined by logistic regression analysis of the combined computer-matched groups based on OPCABG-selection propensity scores with an odds ratio of 1.9 (95% confidence interval = 1.2 to 3.1). CONCLUSIONS: Elimination of CPB improves early survival in multivessel CABG patients. Rigorous attempts to statistically account for selection bias maintained a clear association between CPB and increased mortality. Larger multiinstitutional studies are needed to confirm these findings and determine the most appropriate application of OPCABG.     

Abdominal aortic aneurysm repair and colonic infarction: a risk factor appraisal

OBJECTIVE: Colonic infarction is a recognized complication of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surgery. The clinical difficulty in establishing the diagnosis combined with the patient's poor physiological status is usually associated with a fatal outcome. We assessed our experience with this problem to identify a possible risk factor profile for these patients. METHOD: Patients records were identified from the operative logs, intensive care unit, Hospital Inpatient Enquiry system and vascular unit databases over a 6-year period. RESULTS: A total of 405 patients underwent AAA repair during this period; 140 as emergency ruptures. Nine patients were identified from the databases with known colonic infarction (2.2%). One was a woman. The mean age was 70 years. Seven patients had emergency ruptures (5%). Twenty independent risk factors were analysed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. Significant risk factors identified by using a multivariate analysis included the nature of the presenting patient, preoperative hypotension, prolonged cross-clamp time, intra-operative ischaemia and postoperative acidosis. Confirmatory diagnosis was made by colonoscopy in eight patients. One patient survived following the salvage surgery. The mean duration of survival was 10.5 days. The overall mortality was 89% of patients. CONCLUSION: In our unit infrarenal AAA repair has a 2.2% rate of colonic infarction. A definitive diagnosis is best made by colonoscopy. A risk factor profile for the development of colonic infarction may be constructed on the basis of specific clinical parameters. Earlier intervention on the basis of this profile may ultimately reduce the current excessive mortality.     

Predictors of perioperative and late survival in octogenarians undergoing elective endovascular abdominal aortic repair

ObjectiveThe appropriateness of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) of uncomplicated abdominal aortic aneurysm depends on the risk-benefit ratio, particularly in elderly patients with short life expectancy. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of EVAR in >80-year-old patients by evaluating their postoperative survival and analyzing the possible predictors of late mortality.MethodsAll consecutive patients aged >80 years undergoing elective EVAR from 2006 to 2015 were prospectively evaluated. The 30-day mortality and long-term survival were assessed, and independent risk factors for mortality were determined by multivariate logistic and Cox analysis.ResultsOf a total of 1135 EVARs performed in a 10-year period, 201 (18%) occurred in patients older than 80 years. The median age was 84 years (interquartile range, 3 years), and 85% were male. Thirty-four patients (17%) had a score of 4 according to the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification. Overall 30-day mortality was 2% (n = 4); it was significantly higher in those with ASA score of 4 compared with ASA score <4 (9.4% vs 0.6%; P = .04) and was also confirmed by multivariate analysis (odds ratio, 12.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-141.8; P = .04). The mean follow-up was 36 ± 18 months, and the overall survival at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years was 85% ± 2%, 77% ± 3%, and 52% ± 4%, respectively. Using multivariate Cox regression, ASA score of 4 and peripheral artery obstructive disease (PAOD) were the only independent predictors for midterm mortality (hazard ratio of 2.0 [95% CI, 1.2-2.9; P = .04] and 3.07 [95% CI, 1.06-5.2; P = .04], respectively). The 2-year survival was significantly influenced by the presence of both (ASA score of 4 and PAOD; survival, 33% ± 2%) or one (ASA score of 4 or PAOD; survival, 67% ± 8%) of the two independent predictors. If neither ASA score of 4 nor PAOD was present, survival was significantly improved (92% ± 3%; P = .02).ConclusionsThe performance of EVAR in >80-year-old patients is associated with an overall early mortality rate as low as 2%. In patients with no or only one risk factor, the survival rate warrants the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm; in contrast, patients with ASA score of 4 and PAOD have a significantly higher mortality rate and reduction of life expectancy.     

急性结石性胆囊炎腹腔镜胆囊切除术术前评分模型的建立

目的:建立急性结石性胆囊炎腹腔镜胆囊切除术(laparoscopic cholecystectomy,LC)术前评分模型,预测手术难度。方法:回顾分析2014年6月至2016年6月324例急性结石性胆囊炎患者行LC的临床资料,并根据手术时间分为容易组与困难组。应用χ~2检验对两组指标进行单因素分析;再将P<0.01的指标纳入多因素Logistic回归分析。采用多因素分析有统计学意义(P<0.05)的指标构建LC术前评分模型,并应用ROC曲线评价此模型的性能。结果:单因素分析表明,性别、胆囊炎发作时间、凝血酶原时间、中性粒细胞绝对计数、纤维蛋白原、碱性磷酸酶及胆囊壁厚度对手术时间具有影响;多因素分析表明,性别、胆囊炎发作时间、中性粒细胞绝对计数、碱性磷酸酶、纤维蛋白原及胆囊壁厚度是影响手术时间的独立危险因素。LC术前评分模型的曲线下面积为0.784。以5分为手术是否困难的临界值,其特异度为72.7,敏感度为80.6。结论:LC术前评分模型对预测LC手术难度具有较好的预测能力,可为选择合适的手术方式提供临床指导。     

Factors Affecting Mortality in Generalized Postoperative Peritonitis: Multivariate Analysis in 96 Patients

Abstract Mortality of generalized postoperative peritonitis remains high at 22% to 55%. The aim of the present study was to identify prognostic factors by means of univariate and multivariate analysis in a consecutive series of 96 patients. Mortality was 30%. Inability to clear the abdominal infection or to control the septic source, older age, and unconsciousness were significant factors related to mortality in the multivariate analysis. Failure to control the peritoneal infection (15%) was always fatal and correlated with failed septic source control, high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, and male gender. Failure to control the septic source (8%) also was always fatal and correlated with high APACHE II score and therapeutic delay. In patients with immediate source control, residual peritonitis occurred in 9% after purulent or biliary peritonitis and in 41% after fecal peritonitis (p = 0.002). In patients without immediate control of the septic source, delayed control was still achieved in 100% after a planned relaparotomy (PR) strategy versus 43% after an on-demand relaparotomy (ODR) strategy (p = 0.018). In the same patients, mortality was 0% in the PR group versus 64% in the ODR group (p = 0.007). Early relaparotomy is related to improved septic source control. After relaparotomy for generalized postoperative peritonitis, a PR strategy is indicated whenever source control is uncertain. It also might decrease mortality in fecal peritonitis. An ODR approach is adequate for purulent and biliary peritonitis with safe septic source control.     

Comparative study of left colonic Peritonitis Severity Score and Mannheim Peritonitis Index

BACKGROUND: Prognostic evaluation of patients with left colonic perforation is useful in predicting mortality. The aims of this prospective study were to determine the prognostic value of the left colonic Peritonitis Severity Score (PSS) and to compare it with the Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI). METHODS: One-hundred and fifty-six patients underwent emergency operation for distal colonic peritonitis. The PSS and MPI were calculated for each patient. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was used to measure the association between the two scores. The predictive power of the two scoring systems and their differences were studied using the area under the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Forty-one patients died (26.3 per cent). The relationship between scores and mortality was statistically significant for each scoring system (P < 0.001). The Spearman rank correlation coefficient for the correlation between the MPI and PSS was 0.55 (P < 0.001). There was no difference between areas under the ROC curves for the two systems. CONCLUSION: The PSS and MPI are both well validated scoring systems for left colonic peritonitis. Their routine use might allow stratification of patients according to mortality risk.     

Severe secondary peritonitis following gastrointestinal tract perforation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early prognostic evaluation of abdominal sepsis is useful in the assessment of the severity of the disease and to select high-risk patients for early surgical reintervention. The aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors in a well-defined patient population most likely to benefit from early reoperation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 66 consecutive patients with secondary peritonitis caused by gastrointestinal tract perforation and requiring postoperative treatment in an intensive care unit was performed using univariate and multivariate analysis to identify risk factors for hospital mortality. RESULTS: The overall hospital mortality rate was 36 %. Significant risk factors in the univariate analysis included advanced age (p = 0.000), pre-existing illness (p = 0.000), chronic medication (p = 0.028), hospital transfer (p = 0.036), non-traumatic cause of perforation (p = 0.031), high Mannheim peritonitis index (MPI) score (p = 0.001), and high C-reactive protein (CRP) level in the early postoperative phase (p = 0.015). In a multivariate analysis, only advanced age (odds ratio 1.1008, p = 0.000) and high postoperative CRP level (odds ratio 1.0095, p = 0.008) were identified as independent prognostic factors for hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: In addition to factors associated with the physiological reserve of the patient, type of peritonitis and high MPI score, elevated CRP levels in the early postoperative phase in patients operated for severe secondary peritonitis have prognostic significance. However, before a properly designed randomized study on the value of planned relaparotomy in secondary peritonitis can be initiated, more reliable methods to identify high-risk patients need to be found.     

Prognostic factors of perforated sigmoid diverticulitis in the elderly

BACKGROUND: The Finnish population is aging fast and the prevalence of perforated sigmoid diverticulitis is simultaneously increasing in northern Finland. The fact that an increasing number of elderly patients, with their age-specific problems, are subjected to emergency surgery for acute diverticulitis underlines the importance of risk stratification. METHODS: One hundred and seventy-two patients admitted to Oulu University Hospital because of diverticular perforation from 1983 to 2002 were identified from the computer database. The clinical variables were evaluated as prognostic indicators of postoperative complications, mortality and time of hospitalization. RESULTS: The resection rate was 91%; 64 primary anastomoses, 93 Hartmann's procedures and two covering colostomies were performed. The overall complication rate was 33%. In patients under 70 years, a stepwise logistic regression analysis showed that the Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI) score and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score were independent prognostic factors. None of factors predicted morbidity in patients over 70 years. Overall mortality rate was 8%, without any significant difference between the procedures. Of the clinical variables, MPI score, ASA score, Hinchey classes and malnutrition correlated with mortality. All patients who died presented with ASA scores of III-IV, and 12 out of 14 patients had an MPI score of II. In a stepwise logistic regression analysis, only the MPI score seemed to be an independent predictor of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality is related to age but age alone is not an independent predictor of mortality. The MPI score is useful in predicting the risk of death in patients with perforated diverticulitis.     

Acute postoperative psychosyndromes. A prospective study and multivariate analysis of risk factors

The incidence of postoperative delirium was assessed in 92 patients on a general surgical intensive care unit. Postoperative delirium was diagnosed in 39 patients (42%). Most of the cases were diagnosed on the second postoperative day and the median duration was seven days. Ten patients with delirium (25%) had a lethal outcome, compared to a 13% mortality of the whole population. In univariate analysis the variables age, preoperative therapy for heart failure, respirator therapy, dobutamin therapy and lowest capillary pO2 on day one were significantly associated with later development of delirium, whereas preoperative peritonitis, and history of stroke or hypertension were only borderline significant. A predictive model with three parameters emerged from multiple logistic regression analysis: after correction for age (p = 0.001), respirator therapy (p = 0.020), and capillary pO2 on day one (p = 0.049) none of the remaining variables proved of additional significance. The statistical model yielded a predictive accuracy of 78%.     

经典非转流原位肝移植术后早期肾功能障碍的原因分析

目的观察经典非转流原位肝移植（orthotopic liver transplantation,OLT）术后早期肾功能障碍（renal dysfunction,RD）发生的原因并提供临床参考.方法前瞻性研究了连续48例经典非转流OLT病例,根据术后早期（术后第1周）血清肌酐水平进行分组.对单因素分析后有显著性差异的资料进行多因素回归分析.结果经典非转流OLT术后早期RD的发生率为35.4%.Binary Logistic多元回归分析显示：术前RD、Child-Pugh评分、无肝期门静脉开放后1 h尿量是该术后早期RD的危险因素.结论对于术前明显肾功能障碍或Child-Pugh评分较高的病人,应避免使用经典非转流术式.对于接受经典非转流手术的病人,术前应纠正肾功能异常;术中应避免血流动力学的剧烈波动,保持稳定有效的肾血流灌注,以减少术后早期RD的发生.