Nomogram for the prediction of lymph node metastasis and survival outcomes in rectal neuroendocrine tumour patients undergoing resection

BackgroundThe current study analysed rectal neuroendocrine tumour (RNET) patients undergoing resection to identify predictive factors and construct nomograms for lymph node metastasis, cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS).MethodsRNET patients registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included in this study. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the relationships between clinicopathological factors and lymph node metastasis. A multivariate competing risk model was applied to investigate factors independently associated with CSS. Through the Cox regression model, a multivariable analysis of OS was performed. Nomograms were established based on independent predictive factors. Calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Brier scores were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomograms.ResultsIn this study, 1,253 RNET patients were included for further analysis. Tumour size ≥12 mm (P<0.001), T3/T4 stage (P<0.001) and M1 stage (P=0.001) were independently associated with lymph node metastasis. The performance of the nomogram was acceptable for predicting lymph node metastasis, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.937 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.874–1.000]. Calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed desirable model calibration (P=0.99996). The multivariate competing risk model analysis showed that grade II (P=0.017), tumour size ≥12 mm (P=0.007), AJCC TNM stage II (P=0.002), stage III (P<0.001) and stage IV (P<0.001) were significantly associated with worse CSS. In the competing risk nomogram model, the time-dependent AUC revealed good discriminatory ability of the model (time from 1 to 107 months, AUC >0.900), and the Brier score showed good accuracy of the nomogram, which was greater than that of the AJCC TNM stage. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that age >60 years (P=0.002), median income ≥$65,000 (P=0.013), AJCC TNM stage III (P=0.038) and AJCC TNM stage IV (P<0.001) were independently associated with worse OS. In the nomogram for the prediction of OS, the C-statistic was 0.703 (95% CI: 0.615–0.792), which was significantly better than that of the AJCC TNM stage (0.703 vs. 0.607, P=0.009). A calibration plot for the probability of survival demonstrated good calibration.ConclusionsThe present study is the first to establish nomograms with great discrimination and accuracy for the prediction of lymph node metastases, CSS and OS in RNET patients, which can be used to guide treatment decision-making and surveillance.     

Development of a prognostic prediction model based on microRNA-1269a in esophageal cancer

BACKGROUNDEsophageal cancer (ESCA) is a heterogeneous cancer with variable outcomes that are challenging to predict. MicroRNA (miR)-1269a is a newly discovered non-coding RNA that shows promising prognostic prediction in other cancers, but its clinical value in ESCA remains unclear.AIMTo explore the relationship between miR-1269a and its clinical value and to develop a nomogram to succinctly display this relationship.METHODSWe analyzed the expression of miR-1269a in 125 ESCA tissue samples with complete clinical data and 52 normal tissue samples. We determined the prognostic value of miR-1269a for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) and evaluated the association between miR-1269a and clinical variables including tumor location, histologic grade, metastatic stage, and American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage using multivariate Cox analysis. Additionally, we developed a nomogram for OS and CSS based on miR-1269a expression using age and AJCC stage and assessed its prognostic performance. Using Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Gene and Genomes analyses, we predicted the target genes of miR-1269a and analyzed their potential function in caner development.RESULTSThe expression of miR-1269a was significantly higher in ESCA patients than healthy controls. Patients with high expression of miR-1269a showed poor prognosis in OS and CSS, suffered increased rates of low differentiation and metastasis, and exhibited tumor stage T3 + T4, positive lymph stage, and AJCC stage III + IV. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of miR-1269a was 0.716 for OS and 0.764 for CSS. Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that AJCC stage and miR-1269a were independent factors for OS and CSS. Combing with age, we constructed a nomogram for prognostic prediction. Additionally, our nomogram showed excellent predictive performance for OS and CSS after 3 years and 5 years and was easy to use. Ultimately, the functional analysis suggested that miR-1269a was mostly involved in the PI3K-AKT signaling pathway.CONCLUSIONmiR-1269a can be used as a potential indicator for the prognosis of ESCA patients. We developed an easy-to-use nomogram with excellent ESCA prognostic prediction for clinical use.     

Prognostic nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in patients with resected hilar cholangiocarcinoma: a large cohort study

BackgroundThe aim of the study was to establish and validate a novel prognostic nomogram of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in resected hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA) patients.MethodsA training cohort of 536 patients and an internal validation cohort of 270 patients were included in this study. The demographic and clinicopathological variables were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were performed in the training cohort, followed by the construction of nomogram for CSS. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging systems. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to measure the predictive power and clinical value of the nomogram.ResultsThe nomogram incorporating age, tumor size, tumor grade, lymph node ratio (LNR) and T stage parameters was with a C-index of 0.655 in the training cohort, 0.626 in the validation cohort, compared with corresponding 0.631, 0.626 for the AJCC 8th staging system. The calibration curves exhibited excellent agreement between CSS probabilities predicted by nomogram and actual observation in the training cohort and validation cohort. DCA indicated that this nomogram generated substantial clinical value.ConclusionsThe proposed nomogram provided a more accurate prognostic prediction of CSS for individual patients with resected HCCA than the AJCC 8th staging system, which might be served as an effective tool to stratify resected HCCA patients with high risk and facilitate optimizing therapeutic benefit.     

Development and validation of prognostic nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes for patients with gastric signet ring cell carcinoma

ObjectiveOur aims were to establish novel nomogram models, which directly targeted patients with signet ring cell carcinoma (SRC), for individualized prediction of overall survival (OS) rate and cancer-specific survival (CSS).MethodsWe selected 1,365 SRC patients diagnosed from 2010 to 2015 from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, and then randomly partitioned them into a training cohort and a validation cohort. Independent predicted indicators, which were identified by using univariate testing and multivariate analyses, were used to construct our prognostic nomogram models. Three methods, Harrell concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve, were used to assess the ability of discrimination and predictive accuracy. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess clinical utility of our nomogram models.ResultsSix independent predicted indicators, age, race, log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), T stage, M stage and tumor size, were associated with OS rate. Nevertheless, only five independent predicted indicators were associated with CSS except race. The developed nomograms based on those independent predicted factors showed reliable discrimination. C-index of our nomogram for OS and CSS was 0.760 and 0.763, which were higher than American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (0.734 and 0.741, respectively). C-index of validation cohort for OS was 0.757 and for CSS was 0.773. The calibration curves also performed good consistency. IDI, NRI and DCA showed the nomograms for both OS and CSS had a comparable clinical utility than the TNM staging system.ConclusionsThe novel nomogram models based on LODDS provided satisfying predictive ability of SRC both in OS and CSS than AJCC 8th edition TNM staging system alone.     

Development and validation of survival nomograms in colorectal cancer patients with synchronous liver metastases underwent simultaneous surgical treatment of primary and metastatic lesions

Colorectal cancer patients with synchronous liver metastases (CRSLM) can be treated by simultaneous surgery, that is the primary tumor and liver metastasis are removed at the same time. However, criteria for simultaneous surgery are underwent continuously modified and expanded. An appropriate selection of adequate candidates for simultaneous surgery is vital to get best benefits. A retrospective study including CRSLM patients underwent simultaneous surgical treatment was conducted. CRSLM patients from SEER database were screened as development set, while CRSLM patients in Harbin (China) were enrolled as validation set. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were applied as end-point. Variables were screen by LASSO-Cox regression, then Cox regression was applied to construct 1-, 3- and 5-year OS, and CSS nomograms. Nomograms were compared to TMN stage for survival prediction and evaluated by concordance indexes (C-indexes), Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). 1347 and 112 CRSLM patients were included in the development set and validation set respectively. Nine factors were found associated with OS and CSS, i.e., Age, Primary Site, Differentiation grade, Histology type, T stage, N stage, Tumor size, Chemotherapy, CEA. Compared to the TNM stage, OS nomogram in development set and validation set got C-indexes values of 0.701 vs 0.641, 0.670 vs 0.557 respectively. Meanwhile, compared to the TNM stage, CSS nomogram in development set and validation set got C-indexes values of 0.704 vs 0.649, 0.677 vs 0.569 respectively. AUC values of the OS and CSS nomograms were higher than the TNM stage, DCA showed the OS and CSS nomograms got more clinical net benefit than the TNM stage, in both the development set and validation set. Our nomograms for predicting survival might be helpful to identify the right CRSLM patients who can get most benefit from simultaneous surgery.     

Prognostic nomogram for predicting the 5-year probability of developing metastasis after neo-adjuvant chemotherapy and definitive surgery for AJCC stage II extremity osteosarcoma

BackgroundIn this retrospective study, we developed and internally validate a nomogram for predicting 5-year metastasis probability for nonmetastatic extremity osteosarcoma.Patients and methodsWe reviewed 365 osteosarcoma patients treated at our institute from 1990 to 2003. Clinicopathologic variables were recorded. Multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression was done and this Cox model was used as the basis for the nomogram.ResultsBy American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system, 141 patients (38.6%) were stage IIA and 224 (61.4%) were stage IIB. Multivariate Cox model identified patient age at diagnosis, tumor size, humeral location, and tumor necrosis rate after chemotherapy as correlated with metastasis-free survival. The degree of contribution of each covariate to the total point was tumor location, tumor necrosis rate, maximal tumor diameter, and age in decreasing order. The concordance index for the model was 0.78. Nomogram discrimination was superior to that of AJCC stage (concordance index 0.78 versus 0.68; P = 0.02) and histologic response grouping (concordance index 0.78 versus 0.69; P = 0.0004).ConclusionsWe devised a nomogram for nonmetastatic osteosarcoma that proposes improved estimates of metastasis over AJCC staging system or tumor necrosis rate. We suggest that this nomogram allows individualized risk assessments and could be used as the basis for risk-adapted therapy.     

四肢纤维肉瘤患者预后诺模图的开发和验证

目的:开发诺模图来预测原发于四肢纤维肉瘤患者的总体生存率(OS)和癌症特异性生存率(CSS)。方法:根据SEER数据库,收集原发于四肢纤维肉瘤病例。采用Cox比例风险回归模型对病例预后进行分析,获得独立的预测因素。这些独立的预测因子被整合在一起,形成了预测5年和10年OS及CSS的诺模图。使用R软件通过一致性指数(C-index指数）、ROC曲线和校准曲线图来评估诺模图的性能。结果:在OS的单因素和多因素分析中,年龄、病理分级、肿瘤大小和手术被确定为独立的危险因素。 在CSS的单变量和多变量分析中,病理分级、肿瘤大小和肿瘤分期被确定为独立的危险因素。 这些特征均整合在诺模图中以预测5年和10年OS和CSS,C指数分别为0.812和0.857。通过5年和10年OS和CSS的概率的C-index指数和AUG曲线显示,诺模图预测和观察结果之间具有很好的一致性。结论:诺模图可以准确地预测四肢纤维肉瘤患者的OS和CSS,并有助于个性化的预后评估和个性化的临床决策。     

局限期可手术食管癌术前放化疗预后因素分析及生存预测模型

目的 利用SEER数据库分析局限期可手术食管癌术前放化疗患者的预后及其相关因素,并建立生存预测列线图,为筛选术前放化疗患者提供一定参考。方法 选取SEER数据库2010-2015年食管癌接受术前放化疗且分期为T1b-4aN0-3M0(2010年AJCC第7版分期)的病例;生存率采用Kaplan-Meier法,单因素分析采用Logrank检验,多因素分析采用Cox模型检验;通过R软件建立预测模型列线图;一致性指数(C-index)及校准曲线用来评价模型准确度。结果 共1697例患者符合条件并可纳入分析。单因素分析显示性别、T分期、N分期、分化程度与总生存(OS)及癌症特异生存(CSS)均相关(P均<0.001),年龄与OS相关(P=0.027)。多因素分析显示年龄、性别、分化程度、N分期与OS相关;性别、分化程度、T分期、N分期与CSS相关(P均<0.05)。将预后相关因素纳入Nomogram预后模型,5年OS、CSS的C-index值分别为0.60、0.61。同样方法建立食管鳞癌亚组患者预后模型,OS及CSS的C-index值为0.62、0.64。结论 性别、临床分期、分化程度为局限期可手术食管癌行术前放化疗者CSS预后因素,根据以上数据建立的列线图可为是否采用术前放化疗联合手术治疗这一模式提供一定参考。     

Comparison of 4 lymph node staging systems for the prognostic prediction of esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma with ≤15 retrieved lymph nodes

BackgroundDirectly applying the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Tumor Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system to evaluate the prognosis of patients with esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (AEG) might lead to under-staging, when insufficient lymph nodes were retrieved during surgery. The prognostic value of 4 lymph nodes staging systems, 8th AJCC TNM N stage, lymph node ratio (LNR), log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), and negative lymph nodes (NLN), in AEG patients having ≤15 retrieved lymph nodes were compared.Methods869 AEG patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2012 with ≤15 retrieved lymph nodes were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to assess the association of cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) with 8th AJCC TNM N stage, LNR, LODDS, and NLN respectively. Predictive survival ability was assessed and compared using linear trend χ2 score, likelihood ratio (LR) test, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Harrell concordance index (C-index), and Receiver Operative Curve (ROC).ResultsThe N stage, LNR, LODDS, and NLN were all independent prognostic predictors for CSS and OS in multivariate Cox models. Comparatively, LODDS demonstrated higher linear trend χ2 score, LR test score, C-index and integrated area under the curve (iAUC) value, and lower AIC in CSS compared to the other three systems. Moreover, for patients without regional lymph node metastasis, NLN showed higher C-index and lower AIC.ConclusionsLODDS showed better predictive performance than N, LNR, and NLN among patients with node-positive patients while NLN performed better in node-negative patients. A combination of LODDS and NLN has the potential to provide more prognostic information than the current AJCC TNM classification.     

非小细胞肺癌组织中lncRNA HOTAIR的表达及临床意义

目的 探讨长链非编码lncRNA HOTAIR在非小细胞肺癌（NSCLC）组织中的表达及其临床意义。方法 收集本院2010年1月至2013年1月经病理组织学确诊的91例NSCLC患者,取其经手术切除癌组织91例和配对癌旁组织标本62例,采用实时荧光定量PCR（QPCR）法检测以上标本的HOTAIR水平,分析NSCLC HOTAIR水平与临床病理特征（性别、年龄、TNM分期、肿瘤大小、分化程度、淋巴结转移、病理类型及CEA水平）的关系,并分析不同HOTAIR水平的预后情况。结果 NSCLC组织的HOTAIR相对表达量为6.271±0.884,高于癌旁组织的1.027±0.134,差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）;NSCLC组织中HOTAIR表达与性别、年龄、分化程度、病理类型及CEA异常均无关,而与TNM分期、肿瘤大小及淋巴结转移有关,其中Ⅱ+Ⅲ期、肿瘤大小＞3 cm及有淋巴结转移者的HOTAIR表达均高于对应项,差异均有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。91例NSCLC患者的中位总生存期（OS）为36.4个月,与性别、年龄、分化程度、病理类型及CEA水平无关,但与TNM分期、肿瘤大小、淋巴结转移及HOTAIR表达有关,其中HOTAIR高表达者中位OS为27.8个月,低于低表达者的36.4个月,差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）。多因素分析显示,TNM分期、肿瘤大小、淋巴结转移及HOTAIR表达是影响NSCLC预后的独立因素。结论 HOTAIR在NSCLC组织中高表达,且与TNM分期、肿瘤大小、淋巴结转移及预后均有关,可能在NSCLC的发生发展中有一定作用。     

Construction and validation of nomograms for non-metastatic Ewing sarcoma: A prognostic factor analysis based on the SEER database

Ewing sarcoma is the second most common osseous disease in children and adolescents. It presents with a poor prognosis due to the high degree of malignancy and distant metastasis. In order to predict the disease prognosis and investigate a suitable therapeutic strategy for Ewing sarcoma, the present study aimed to describe the clinical characteristics, and to construct and validate nomograms for patients with non-metastatic Ewing sarcoma. A total of 627 cases of non-metastatic Ewing sarcoma were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2005 and 2014. Survival analysis and a machine learning model were used to identify independent prognostic variables and establish nomograms to estimate overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS). The nomograms were bootstrap internally validated and externally validated using non-metastatic Ewing sarcoma cases from the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University. The accuracy was also assessed by comparing with current American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging systems. The total series consisted of 627 patients with non-metastatic Ewing sarcoma with a mean age of 20.14 years. Age, tumor extension, sex, International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd Edition histology, surgery and chemotherapy were identified as independent risk factors for OS and CSS. The aforementioned outcomes were incorporated to construct the nomograms, and the concordance indices (C-indices) for internal validation of OS and CSS prediction were 0.791 and 0.813, which were higher than those for AJCC sixth edition (OS, 0.531; CSS, 0.534) and seventh edition (OS, 0.547; CSS, 0.561), while the C-indices for external validation of OS and CSS prediction were 0.834 and 0.825, respectively. In conclusion, age, sex, tumor extension and surgery were independent prognostic factors for both OS and CSS. In addition, with regard to OS, the Ewing sarcoma subtype was a poor factor and chemotherapy was a favorable one. Nomograms based on reduced Cox models attained a satisfactory accuracy in predicting the survival of patients with non-metastatic Ewing sarcoma and could assist clinicians in evaluating survival more accurately.     

A nomogram-based immune-serum scoring system predicts overall survival in patients with lung adenocarcinoma

Objective:The immunoscore, which is used to quantify immune infiltrates, has greater relative prognostic value than tumor, node, and metastasis (TNM) stage and might serve as a new system for classification of colorectal cancer. However, a comparable immunoscore for predicting lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) prognosis is currently lacking.Methods:We analyzed the expression of 18 immune features by immunohistochemistry in 171 specimens. The relationship of immune marker expression and clinicopathologic factors to the overall survival (OS) was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method. A nomogram was developed by using the optimal features selected by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression in the training cohort (n = 111) and evaluated in the validation cohort (n = 60).Results:The indicators integrated in the nomogram were TNM stage, neuron-specific enolase, carcino-embryonic antigen, CD8_{center of tumor (CT)}, CD8_{invasive margin (IM)}, FoxP3_CT, and CD45RO_CT. The calibration curve showed prominent agreement between the observed 2- and 5-year OS and that predicted by the nomogram. To simplify the nomogram, we developed a new immune-serum scoring system (I-SSS) based on the points awarded for each factor in the nomogram. Our I-SSS was able to stratify same-stage patients into different risk subgroups. The combination of I-SSS and TNM stage had better prognostic value than the TNM stage alone.Conclusions:Our new I-SSS can accurately and individually predict LUAD prognosis and may be used to supplement prognostication based on the TNM stage.     

Primary spinal cord glioma: a Surveillance,Epidemiology, and End Results database study

To characterize the overall survival (OS) and cause specific survival (CSS), and variables affecting outcome, in patients with primary spinal cord astrocytoma (SCA) and ependymoma (SCE). About 664 patients with SCA and 1,057 patients with SCE were analyzed using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. For grade 1, 2, 3 and 4 SCA, the 5-year OS was 82, 70, 28 and 14%; the 5-year CSS was 89, 77, 36 and 20%. For SCA, lower grade, younger age, and undergoing resection significantly improved OS and CSS; treatment without radiotherapy was favorable for CSS. Smaller tumor size also improved survival. For grade 1, 2, and 3 SCE, the 5-year OS was 92, 97 and 58%; the 5-year CSS was 100, 98 and 64%. For SCE, lower grade, younger age, and undergoing resection significantly improved OS and CSS; treatment without radiotherapy was favorable for OS. Smaller tumor size did not confer a survival benefit. Patients with resected grade 2 spinal cord glioma who did not receive radiotherapy fared well with respect to OS and CSS. For patients with spinal cord glioma, the variables of histology, grade, age and undergoing resection are significant predictors of outcome. Though treatment with radiotherapy was associated with worse outcomes, this may reflect a bias in that patients who underwent radiotherapy were perhaps more likely to have had adverse risk factors. Given the retrospective nature of this study, specific recommendations about which situations warrant radiotherapy cannot be determined.     

Prognostic Factors of Adrenocortical Carcinoma: An Analysis of the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Database

Objective: To define the prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) for adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC). Patients and Methods: We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database (1973-2014) to identify ACC patients. Correlated variables, including age, sex, race, tumor laterality, marital status at diagnosis, treatment of primary site, lymph node dissection, radiation therapy, chemotherapy, tumor size and tumor stage, were extracted. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression were used to define the prognostic factors. Harrell’s concordance index (C index) was calculated to evaluate the discrimination ability for the prognostic predictive models. Results: There were 749 ACC patients identified from the database. The overall median survival time was 22 (95%CI, 18-25) months. In multivariate analysis, age, treatment, chemotherapy and tumor stage were independent risk factors for both overall and cancer-specific survival. Tumor stage had a dominant effect on the cancer prognosis. Additionally, the ENSAT stage had better discrimination than the AJCC stage group in different predictive models. Conclusion: Our study shows that age, treatment of primary site, chemotherapy and tumor stage were prognostic factors for overall and cancer-specific mortality in ACC patients. Among these factors, tumor stage had a dominant effect. The ENSAT stage was more discriminative than the 7th AJCC stage group. Further multi-center prospective validation is still needed to confirm these outcomes.     

Pattern of distant metastases and predictive nomograms in colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma: a SEER analysis

BackgroundWe evaluated the metastatic patterns and explored the prognostic value of distant metastasis pattern in patients with metastatic colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (MC) using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.MethodsBetween 2010 and 2015, newly diagnosed colorectal MC patients were selected using the SEER database. Patient prognosis was compared based on the clinicopathological parameters, treatment method, and the site and number of metastatic organs. Cox analyses were used to identify factors associated with overall survival (OS). A nomogram was built to predict the patient’s survival. Harrell’s concordance index (c-index) and calibration curves were used to analyze the discriminative ability of the prognostic factors.ResultsOf 3,088 patients diagnosed with colorectal MC, the liver was the only metastatic organ in 78.4% (997/1,271) of all liver metastasis cases, the lung was the only metastatic organ in 41.0% (164/400) of all lung metastasis cases, bone was the only metastatic organ in 26.6% (29/109) of all bone metastasis cases, and the brain was the only metastatic organ in 23.5% (4/17) of all brain metastasis cases. Compared with the untreated cases, those treated with chemotherapy, surgery, and radiotherapy had better OS (P<0.001). There were marked OS differences (P<0.001) between patients with and without liver and bone metastases. Patients with bone metastasis had the best survival, while those with brain metastasis had the worst survival (P<0.001). Patients with one metastatic site had better prognosis compared to those with two or three (P<0.001). Patients with liver metastasis had the best survival, while those with bone and brain metastasis had the worst survival (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age <65 years, non-black race, grade I, N0 stage, chemotherapy, radiation, surgery, liver metastasis, and bone metastasis were independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed to predict survival probability. The c-index value was up to 0.745. The calibration plot showed that the nomogram was clinically useful.ConclusionsMetastatic MC (mMC) patients had a characteristic distant metastasis pattern. This study constructed a new and sufficiently accurate prognostic model of mMC based on population-based data. These findings can be utilized to predict prognosis and guide mMC patient management.     

Preoperative serum fibrinogen as a valuable predictor in the nomogram predicting overall survival of postoperative patients with gallbladder cancer

BackgroundCoagulation and fibrinolysis activation are frequently observed in cancer patients, and the tumors in these cases are thought to be associated with a higher risk of invasion, metastasis and worse long-term outcome. The specific aim of this study was to develop an effective prognostic nomogram to help make individualized estimates for patients with resected gallbladder cancer (GBC).MethodsPatients with resected GBC who were diagnosed between 2006 and 2014 at Xinhua Hospital were selected. Model performance was measured by c-index and calibration curve. The results were further validated using bootstrap and a cohort of 38 patients from a branch hospital who underwent surgery from 2006 to 2014.ResultsBackward stepwise selection and Lasso were applied respectively to select predictors. T stage, N stage, and preoperative serum fibrinogen were included in the final model. Predictions correlated well with observed 1- and 3-year survival. The c-index for predicting survival was 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.70–0.78), which was statistically higher than that of the AJCC 7th system and Nevin system (P=0.04, 0.04, respectively). In the validation cohort, the nomogram performed better than the other two staging systems (c-index: 0.71 vs. 0.67 and 0.67).ConclusionsThe validated nomogram is a practical tool for predicting the overall survival (OS) of postoperative GBC patients. Preoperative serum fibrinogen levels were associated with tumor progression and may be an independent predictor for GBC patients.     

Comparisons of remnant primary,residual, and recurrent gastric cancer and applicability of the 8th AJCC TNM classification for remnant gastric cancer staging

BackgroundBecause there is no well-established postoperative staging system for patients with remnant gastric cancer (RGC), we compared the overall survival of patients categorized with the 8th AJCC TNM staging system.MethodA total of 391 patients underwent surgery for RGC at our institution between 1996 and 2019. Among them, 201 patients received their first surgery at our institution and 190 received primary surgery elsewhere. We retrospectively reviewed their medical records and classified each according to Kaminishi’s classification and the 8th AJCC TNM staging system for comparison and analysis.ResultsAll 201 patients who underwent their first operation at our institution for malignancy were classified as primary (n = 41, 20.4%), residual (n = 103, 51.2%), and recurrent (n = 57, 28.4%) RGC. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rates for the primary, residual, and recurrent RGC groups were 78.1%, 73.8% and 56.0%, respectively (p = 0.004). In a multivariate analysis, RGC classification was an independent prognostic factor along with the TNM staging system (p = 0.001). However, there was no significant difference in OS between the three groups of the same TNM stage. In addition, the OS of each stage related to primary cancer was not significantly different from the OS of RGC patients classified in TNM staging.ConclusionThe RGC classification system we used may reflect the comprehensive aspects of previous disease states and predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer. In addition, the 8th AJCC TNM classification is a practical and applicable staging system for RGC.     

Development and validation of a new clinical staging system to predict survival for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients: Application of the nomogram

IntroductionSurvival of patients with the same clinical stage varies widely and effective tools to evaluate the prognosis utilizing clinical staging information is lacking. This study aimed to develop a clinical nomogram for predicting survival of patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC).Materials and methodsOn the basis of data extracted from the SEER database (training cohort, n = 3375), we identified and integrated significant prognostic factors for nomogram development and internal validation. The model was then subjected to external validation with a separate dataset obtained from Jinling Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (validation cohort, n = 1187). The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by concordance index (C-index), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and calibration curves. And risk group stratification was performed basing on the nomogram scores.ResultsOn multivariable analysis of the training cohort, seven independent prognostic factors were identified and included into the nomogram. Calibration curves presented good consistency between the nomogram prediction and actual observation for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS. The AIC value of the nomogram was lower than that of the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM (AJCC) staging system, whereas the C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the AJCC staging system. The risk groups stratified by CART allowed significant distinction between survival curves within respective clinical TNM categories.ConclusionsThe risk stratification system presented better discriminative ability for survival prediction than current clinical staging system and might help clinicians in decision making.     

Construction and evaluation of prognostic models for esophageal cancer patients with distant and non-distant metastases: providing a reference process for clinical diagnosis and treatment

BackgroundAlthough the current treatment for esophageal cancer has great technological progress, the 5-year survival rate of patients is not optimistic. About 70% of patients with esophageal cancer are at an advanced stage at first diagnosis. These patients are prone to distant metastasis, and the prognosis is poor. Therefore, understanding the risk factors for distant metastasis in patients with esophageal cancer, combined with the prognosis of the patient, can aid in choosing the optimal diagnosis and treatment plan. Ultimately, it will improve the patient’s survival time and quality of life. This research aims to construct a model for the risk assessment of distant metastasis in patients with esophageal cancer and prognostic models for patients with distant and non-distant metastases.MethodsThe Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database was used to select patients with esophageal cancer from 2010 to 2015. The optimal cutoff point was selected for the age and tumor size variables using X-tile. The nomogram was constructed using R software (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing).ResultsGender, grade, T stage, N stage, and tumor size were independent risk factors associated with distant metastasis in patients with esophageal cancer. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram prediction model for whether the patient will have distant metastasis was 0.609. Age, grade, T stage, N stage, and tumor size were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis without distant metastasis. The C-index of the nomogram prediction model for patients with distant metastases was 0.590. Age and T stage were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with distant metastases. The C-index of the nomogram prediction model was 0.543. The combination of radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and primary surgery yielded the best overall survival for both patients with distant metastases and patients with non-distant metastases.ConclusionsA comprehensive assessment of the risk of distant metastasis in patients with esophageal cancer, combined with prognosis prediction, is necessary to provide patients with a reasonable treatment plan.     

皮肤梭形细胞黑色素瘤患者生存预测模型的构建及验证

背景与目的：梭形细胞黑色素瘤（spindle cell melanoma,SCM）是一种罕见的黑色素瘤类型,有关SCM患者生存预后的研究较少。通过提取公共数据库中的SCM临床信息,构建并验证皮肤SCM患者5和10年癌症特异性生存率（cancer-specific survival,CSS）和总生存率（overall survival,OS）的生存预测模型。方法：从美国国立癌症研究所监测、流行病学和最终结果（Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results,SEER）数据库筛选出共1 445例患者,分成建模组（n=1 011）和验证组（n=434）。通过单因素和多因素COX回归分析确定独立预后影响因素,建立列线图预测模型。利用一致性指数（concordance index,C-index）、受试者工作特征（receiver operating characteristic,ROC）曲线和校准曲线评估模型的区分度和准确性,利用决策曲线分析（decision curve analysis,DCA）评估模型的临床实用性。结果：年龄、肿瘤部位、肿瘤厚度、溃疡...