应用捕获-再捕获方法估计林州市全死因死亡率和漏报率

[目的]应用捕获-再捕获方法估计林州市2004～2005年全死因死亡率,评价全死因登记处收集死亡资料的完整性. [方法]收集林州市死因登记处、民政和公安3部门2004～2005年的全死园死亡登记资料.不同来源数据间的匹配使用姓名、年龄、性别、死亡时闻、死亡原因和居住地址等变量.使用对数线性泊松模型估计3样本中都没有出现的死亡人数. [结果]2004～2005年期间3来源资料中共报告全死因死亡人数为13007人,死亡率为6.42‰.其中,登记处报告的全死因死亡人数为12261人,死亡率为6.06‰.用捕获-再捕获方法估计的全死因死亡人数为13402人,死亡率为6.62‰.登记处的漏报率为8.5%,合并样本的漏报率为2,3%. [结论]仅仅使用登记处或合并样本资料会低估全死因死亡率,而利用公安、村访谈、登记处等部门现有的资料,使用捕获-再捕获方法可以校正低估的全死因死亡率.     

用捕获-再捕获方法估计林州市传染病死亡人数

目的应用捕获-再捕获方法估计林州市2004—2005年的传染病死亡人数，以评价死因登记处中传染病死亡数据的完整性。方法收集林州市死因登记处、民政和公安三来源2004—2005年的传染病死亡登记资料。用居住地址、姓名、性别、身份证编码、死亡时间、死亡原因等变量对不同来源数据进行匹配。利用三来源的对数线性泊松模型估计林州市2004—2005年真实的传染病死亡人数。结果在2004—2005年共报告传染病死亡人数为361人；用捕获-再捕获方法估计传染病死亡人数为375人（95％CI：367～393），以此估计值作分母，登记处的漏报率为6．7％，公安、民政和登记处资料合并后的漏报率为3．7％。结论运用捕获-再捕获法对传染病死亡登记进行估计，可以校正因漏报而造成的数值误差，获得较准确的传染病死亡人数。     

应用捕获-再捕获方法估计汶上县全死因死亡率和漏报率

目的应用捕获-再捕获方法估计汶上县全死因死亡率,评价死因登记报告系统收集死亡资料的完整性。方法 2009年收集汶上县死因登记报告系统和死因漏报系统的全死因死亡资料。不同来源数据间的匹配使用姓名、年龄、性别、死亡时间、死亡原因和居住地址等变量。应用Chapman and Wittes的无偏估计公式估计目标人群的死亡人数。结果两来源资料中共报告全死因死亡人数为77人,死亡率为7.13‰。死因登记报告系统报告的全死因死亡人数为69人,死亡率为6.39‰。用捕获-再捕获方法估计的全死因死亡人数为79人,死亡率为7.32‰。死因登记报告系统的漏报率为12.6%,两样本合并后,漏报率为2.6%。结论仅使用死因登记报告系统或合并样本资料会低估全死因死亡率,而利用现有的资料,使用捕获-再捕获方法可以校正低估的全死因死亡率。     

应用捕获-再捕获方法评价死因登记报告信息完整性

目的应用捕获-再捕获方法估计汶上县全死因死亡率和漏报率,并评价死因登记报告系统收集死亡信息的完整性。方法收集汶上县死因登记报告系统和死因漏报系统的全死因死亡资料。不同来源数据间的匹配采用标准匹配。应用Chapman和Wittes的无偏估计公式估计目标人群的死亡人数。结果在抽样地区,两来源资料中共报告全死因死亡人数为77人,死亡率为7.13‰。死因登记报告系统报告的全死因死亡人数为69人,死亡率为6.39‰。用捕获-再捕获方法估计的全死因死亡人数为79人,死亡率为7.32‰。死因登记报告系统的漏报率为12.6%,两样本合并后,漏报率为2.6%。结论死因登记报告信息存在明显的漏报,而利用现有的资料,使用捕获-再捕获方法可以校正低估的全死因死亡率。     

捕获-再捕获方法在恶性肿瘤死亡登记报告中的应用

目的 应用捕获再捕获方法估计恶性肿瘤死亡人数,评价癌症登记处收集恶性肿瘤死亡资料的完整性.方法 收集林州市癌症登记处、民政和公安3个来源2004至2005年的恶性肿瘤死亡登记资料.用居住地址、姓名、性别、身份证编码、死亡时间、死亡原因等变量对不同来源数据进行匹配.利用3个数据来源的对数线性泊松模型估计林州市2004至2005年实际的恶性肿瘤死亡人数.结果 捕获-再捕获法估计林州市2004至2005年恶性肿瘤死亡数为3140例(95%CI:3124～3.161),比合并样本多71例;对数线性模型中的交互项显示来源间存在的相依性为正,表明在使用两样本的情况下,会造成缺失病人的低估;用捕获-再捕获得到的校正值作分母,癌症登记处的漏报率为6.6%.结论 运用捕获一再捕获法对恶性肿瘤死亡登记进行估计,可以校正因漏报而造成的数值误差,获得较准确的恶性肿瘤死亡人数.     

应用捕获-再捕获法评估云南省疾病监测点居民死亡水平

目的 应用捕获-再捕获方法(CMR)评价居民死因登记报告质量,校正常规监测居民死亡率和婴儿死亡率.方法 采用多阶段随机整群抽样方法,对抽取的37 538户居民逐户调查人口死亡情况,再与同期监测系统所报告的死亡资料进行核对,计算漏报率以及总体死亡率95%可信区间(CI).结果 云南省国家疾病监测点居民死亡漏报率和婴儿死亡漏报率分别为19.86%和44.74%;校正报告死亡率和校正报告婴儿死亡率分别为7.04‰和32.29%.;估计总体死亡率和总体婴儿死亡率95%CI分别为6.89%.～7.18%和23.02‰～41.57%.结论 使用捕获一再捕获方法可以校正低估的全死因死亡率和婴儿死亡率,适时开展漏报调查,是有效弥补常规监测不足的方法之一.     

应用捕获-再捕获法估计5岁以下儿童死亡漏报率及死亡率

目的探索用捕获-再捕获方法(CRM)估计5岁以下儿童死亡漏报率和死亡率,评价卫生部门收集5岁以下儿童死亡资料的准确程度.方法利用内蒙古喀喇沁旗卫生和计生两部门1997～2000年的5岁以下儿童死亡登记资料通过核对、入户核查,用CRM估计儿童死亡率.结果用CRM估计研究地区1997～2000年5岁以下儿童死亡数为399人,卫生部门的漏报率为24.8%,并且存在死亡儿童年龄越低死亡漏报率越高的现象;卫生部门1997～2000年报表登记的5岁以下儿童平均死亡率为22.97‰,估计5岁以下儿童死亡率为30.55‰,高于将两部门资料合并得到的儿童死亡率28.56‰.结论可以利用卫生和计生部门现有的信息依靠CRM校正因漏报而造成的数值误差,获得较准确的儿童死亡率.但在使用时必须注意其使用的前提条件,不能盲目地套用公式.     

捕获-标记-再捕获方法在死亡人口基数估计中的应用

目的探讨捕获-标记-再捕获方法在死亡人口基数估计中的运用。方法以河池市DOMI项目死因监测系统登记死者人数和医学人口普查登记的死者人数分别作为第一捕获数和第二捕获数,应用捕获-标记-再捕获方法估计河池市死亡人口基数。结果河池市2003年1月1日至2005年5月1日间的5~60岁人群死亡人口基数的点估计值为759人,95%可信区间为750~768人,死因监测系统登记率在82.29%~84.26%之间。结论运用捕获-标记-再捕获对死亡人口基数进行估计经济易行,结果较为可靠,适合在死亡登记不完善但有多个资料来源的情况下进行基数估计。     

捕获-再捕获方法在济南市死因漏报调查中的应用

目的 了解济南市死亡个案的漏报情况,为制定卫生策略提供依据。方法 用捕获一再捕获方法(Capture - Mark - Recapture,CMR),采用分层整群随机抽样的方法,全市各县区根据2015年度各乡镇（街道）死因监测数据质量水平,随机抽取4个乡镇（街道）,每个抽中的乡镇（街道）的所有家庭均为调查家庭,调查对象包括调查家庭的所有成员。从当地公安、民政和村(居委会)搜集人口死亡情况,再与死因登记系统已报告的死亡资料进行比对,计算漏报率。结果 2015年济南市死因监测漏报率为9.21%。其中,农村死亡漏报率较城区高2.23%（95%CI:1.17%～3.29%）。0～4岁组较其他年龄组高18.99%（95%CI:9.58%～28.40%）。男性死亡率较女性高0.90%（95%CI:-5.28%～7.08%）,无统计学意义。根据死亡漏报率,调整后的2015年济南市居民粗死亡率为731.45/10万,调整后的人均期望寿命是78.33岁。结论 济南市死因监测系统死亡漏报情况不容忽视,应规范死因报告管理,逐步提高死因监测数据质量。同时,使用捕获一再捕获方法可以校正低估的粗死亡率和人均期望寿命,适时开展漏报调查,是有效弥补常规监测不足的方法之一。     

应用捕获再捕获方法评估山东省死因登记漏报率水平

目的应用捕获-再捕获方法(capture-mark-recapture,CMR)评价山东省居民2012-2013年死因登记漏报率水平,为制定卫生策略提供依据。方法采用分层整群随机抽样法,将全省所有县(市、区)按照2012年死因登记系统报告死亡率分成5层,分层按比例随机抽取14个调查县(区),从抽中的14个县(区)中各随机抽取3个乡镇(街道),每个乡镇(街道)随机抽取10个村(居委会)。从当地公安、民政和村(居委会)搜集人口死亡情况,再与死因登记系统已报告的死亡资料进行比对,计算漏报率。结果本次漏报调查共收集到6 929个死亡案例,其中漏报1 556例,CMR法估算死亡案例为7 622例(95%CI:7 593~7 651),2年合计漏报率为23.15%,2年合计漏报率差异有统计学意义(χ2=697.65,P0.01)。0~4岁组的2年合计漏报率为56.93%。男性合计漏报率为22.31%,女性合计漏报率为24.09%,两者差异无统计学意义(χ2=3.40,P0.05)。结论山东省死因登记存在明显漏报,且层间漏报水平不一致,低年龄段的漏报率较高,部分地区低年龄段的死因登记工作不够完善,应进一步加强死因监测工作质量,提高报告数据的完整性,同时需要分层调整死亡率,以更加准确客观地评价山东省居民死亡水平。     

Les décès par surdose de drogues en France. Une présentation critique

BackgroundAvailable data suggest a reduction in the number of overdoses due to psychoactive substances (tobacco and alcohol excluded) in France. Nevertheless, official levels remain considerably low compared to other European countries, and strong differences between the different sources providing information support the hypothesis of under-reporting.MethodsTwo cross-tabulations of the main sources of information (police data and national mortality registry on one hand; police data and on another hand) allow the use of easy-to-compute, capture-recapture based indicators to estimate the invisible population (i.e. hidden overdoses).ResultsResults support a significant under-reporting of overdoses, reaching a minimum level of 30%.ConclusionUnlike official claims, there has been a rise in overdoses in France during the last decade. Besides the applied corrections, levels of overdoses still remain low. Attention should be paid to death certification. Other issues of interest are the lack of a common definition and the need for greater institutional coordination.     

Estimating completeness of cancer registration: an empirical evaluation of the two source capture-recapture approach in Germany.

STUDY OBJECTIVE--In recent years, capture-recapture methods have become increasingly popular in estimating completeness of disease registries. This study aimed to assess the performance of the two source capture-recapture method in estimating the completeness of cancer registration. DESIGN--The study was conducted in the population based cancer registry of Saarland, Germany, for which there are three main sources of notifications: reports by clinicians and pathologists, and death certificates. For groups of cases notified by one of the three sources, known completeness of registration by the other two sources was compared with the corresponding two source capture-recapture estimates. PATIENTS--A total of 16,020 patients notified to the cancer registry in 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 were included in the analysis. MAIN RESULTS--There was a tendency towards underestimation of completeness of notifications from pathologists and death certificates for patients notified by clinicians which was essentially confined to the older age groups. In contrast, capture-recapture methods tended to overestimate completeness of notifications from clinicians and death certificates for patients notified by pathologists. This overestimation was observed consistently in all age groups and for all of the most common cancer sites. Nevertheless, deviations of estimated completeness from known completeness were generally small or moderate. Agreement between estimated and known completeness was closest for patients notified by death certificates, although completeness was somewhat underestimated in patients above age 75. The observed patterns are in agreement with knowledge on clinical aspects and clinical management of cancer patients and with the circumstances of cancer registration in Saarland. CONCLUSIONS--Careful application of capture-recapture methods may provide an alternative to traditional approaches for estimating completeness of cancer registration.     

An application of capture-recapture methods to the estimation of completeness of cancer registration

Completeness of cancer registration has not been consistently ascertained across different registries. This report describes how capture-recapture methods have been used to estimate completeness at the Ontario Cancer Registry. The method was applied in two fashions; first, using three data sources in a modeling approach: and second, using two data sources and standard, simple capture-recapture methods. The modeling approach is more flexible, since several variables that influence cancer registration can be considered and can be used to identify reporting patterns of different data sources. In the present analysis, estimates of completeness of the registry as a whole were remarkably similar using either two or three data sources, and site-specific comparisons differed by at most 7%. Because of the advantages of capture-recapture methods-estimation of level of completeness, possible comparability of estimates across different registries, and versatility to consider other determinants of cancer registration-a plea for greater use of these methods in cancer registration is made.     

西乡县2005至2010年5岁以下儿童死亡分析及干预

目的探讨西乡县5岁以下儿童死亡原因、现状、相关因素变化的趋势与规律，为制定降低5岁以下儿童死亡率和婴儿死亡率的卫生政策提供理论依据。方法对县乡村监测网逐级上报的2005至2010年发生的5岁以下儿童死亡报告卡、死亡补漏及死亡检测资料进行分析。结果5岁以下儿童死亡仍以新生儿、婴儿死亡为主，婴儿死亡占5岁以下儿童死亡的79．11％。在225例死亡儿童中，新生儿死亡113例，占50．22％；婴儿死亡的63．48％。结论实施妇幼公共卫生项目是降低5岁以下儿童死亡率的有力措施之一，降低5岁以下儿童死亡率主要在于降低婴儿死亡率，尤其是降低新生儿死亡率。重视婚前医学检查和围产期保健，加强基层产儿科建设和高危孕产妇的动态管理，提高基层人员对急性呼吸道感染病例的管理，可有效降低新生儿死亡。同时，提高家庭安全教育意识，也是降低5岁以下儿童死亡的重要工作。     

Severe underestimation of pertussis related hospitalizations and deaths in the Netherlands: A capture-recapture analysis

OjectiveDespite vaccination, pertussis has remained endemic, sometimes leading to severe disease. We aimed to quantify the completeness of reporting (CoR) of pertussis hospitalizations and deaths in the Netherlands.Study designCoR was estimated using capture-recapture analyses. Hospitalizations (2007–2014) from the National Registration Hospital Care (hospital data) were matched to the notifiable Infectious Disease case registry (notifications) providing (month and) year of birth, gender and postal code. Deaths (1996–2014) from Statistics Netherlands (death registry) were matched to notifications using gender, age, year of death and notification date. Cases <2 years (y) and ≥2y were analysed separately. Chao’s estimator estimated the total population, which was used to calculate CoR.ResultsUsing strict matching criteria, we found 461 matches among 876 (hospital data) and 757 (notifications) hospitalizations <2y. The population estimate of hospitalized infants was 1446, resulting in CoR between 52% and 61%. For hospitalizations ≥2y (246; hospital data and 264; notifications) 43 matches were found, with a population estimate of 1512 and CoR between 16.5% and 22%.Among thirteen (death registry) and eight (notifications) deaths <2y, seven cases overlapped. The population estimate was 16. CoR of the two sources was 50–81%. With two (death registry) and eight (notifications) deaths ≥2y without overlap, the population estimate was 26 and CoR 8–31%.ConclusionResults showed substantial underestimation of pertussis hospitalizations and deaths. This has to be taken into account in evaluation of current and future immunization programs.     

Using the two-source capture-recapture method to estimate the incidence of acute flaccid paralysis in Victoria,Australia

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence and the completeness of ascertainment of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) in Victoria, Australia, in 1998-2000 and to determine its common causes among children aged under 15 years. METHODS:: The two-source capture-recapture method was used to estimate the incidence of cases of AFP and to evaluate case ascertainment in the routine surveillance system. The primary and secondary data sources were notifications from this system and inpatient hospital records, respectively. FINDINGS: The routine surveillance system indicated that there were 14 cases and the hospital record review identified 19 additional cases. According to the two-source capture-recapture method, there would have been 40 cases during this period (95% confidence interval (CI) = 29-51), representing an average annual incidence of 1.4 per 100000 children aged under 15 years (95% CI = 1.1- 1.7). Thus case ascertainment based on routine surveillance was estimated to be 35% complete. Guillain-Barré syndrome was the commonest single cause of AFP. CONCLUSIONS: Routine surveillance for AFP in Victoria was insensitive. A literature review indicated that the capture-recapture estimates obtained in this study were plausible. The present results help to define a target notification rate for surveillance in settings where poliomyelitis is not endemic.     

Prior information in behavioral capture-recapture methods: demographic influences on drug injectors' propensity to be listed in data sources and their drug-related mortality

The authors present findings from a Bayesian analysis of Scotland's four primary capture-recapture data sources for 2000 that was carried out to estimate numbers of current injecting drug users by region (Greater Glasgow vs. elsewhere in Scotland), sex (male vs. female), and age group (15-34 years vs. > or =35 years). A secondary goal of the analysis was to obtain Bayesian estimates and credible intervals for the demographic influences on Scotland's drug-related death rate per 100 current injectors. Incorporation of informative priors altered the models with highest posterior probability. Expert opinion on how demography influenced Scottish drug injectors' propensity to be listed in different data sources was taken into account, along with external information about European injectors' drug-related death rates and male:female ratios. Higher drug-related mortality was confirmed in older drug injectors and those outside of Greater Glasgow. Female injectors' lower drug-related death rate was not sustained beyond 34 years of age. The authors recommend that demographic influences be accommodated in behavioral capture-recapture estimation, especially when it is a prelude to secondary analysis, such as the analysis of drug-related death rates presented here.     

Estimation of fatalities due to road traffic crashes in Karachi, Pakistan, using capture-recapture method

The objective of the study was to estimate the magnitude of road traffic fatalities occurring in Karachi, Pakistan. A 2-source capture-recapture model was applied to obtain a reliable estimate of the magnitude of the problem. A conservative adjusted estimate of fatalities generated, using data from 2 sources matched by at least name, gender, age, and location. In 2008, police reported 616 fatalities whereas hospitals recorded 1092 fatalities due to road traffic crashes. The capture- recapture analysis estimated at least 1375 fatalities. Police data show 55% deficit from the estimated figure and 43.6% deficit from the observed one, whereas hospital data show 20.6% deficit from the estimation. Road traffic crashes and resulting fatalities and injuries are a much more substantial health problem than is evident from official statistics. The capture-recapture analysis can be used as a tool to provide affordable and reliable estimates in developing countries where routine official statistics suffer from underreporting.