Increase in incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in northern Denmark: a population-based study, 1978-2002

OBJECTIVES: Although incidence rates of inflammatory bowel disease have been reported worldwide, few long-term population-based studies with current time-trend analyses exist. We therefore examined time trends in the incidence rate of inflammatory bowel disease in a 25-year study period, and estimated the prevalence in 2002. All patients diagnosed between 1978 and 2002 were included as incident cases (n=2,326) and all patients living in North Jutland County on 31 December 2002 were used to estimate prevalent cases (n=2,205). METHODS: Medical records of all patients diagnosed with ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease in the North Jutland County Hospital Discharge Registry were reviewed to examine if the diagnostic criteria were fulfilled. Age-specific and gender-specific standardized incidence rates were calculated. RESULTS: For ulcerative colitis, incidence rates in women increased from 8.3 (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.7-9.9) in 1978-1982 to 17.0 (95% CI: 14.7-19.3) per 100,000 person-years in 1998-2002. The corresponding figures for men were 7.7 (95% CI: 6.1-9.3) and 16.7 (95% CI: 14.4-18.8) per 100,000 person-years. For Crohn's disease, the incidence rates in women increased from 4.1 (95% CI: 3.0-5.2) in 1978-1982 to 10.7 (95% CI: 8.8-12.5) per 100,000 person-years in 1998-2002. The corresponding figures for men were 3.2 (95% CI: 2.1-4.2) and 8.5 (95% CI: 6.9-10.2) per 100,000 person-years. The prevalence of ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease was 294 and 151 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A marked and parallel increase was seen in both ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease in both genders during the last 25 years, with a corresponding high prevalence of both diseases.     

Secular Trends in Incidence and 30-Day Case Fatality of Acute Pancreatitis in North Jutland County,Denmark: A Register-based Study from 1981-2000

Background: The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis has been reported as having increased during recent decades in Western countries. Reported mortality lies around 10% and has improved during the past 20 years. The incidence rate and 30-day case fatality rate of acute pancreatitis in North Jutland County, Denmark were examined for the period 1981 to 2000. Methods: Data were collected from the Hospital Discharge Registry of North Jutland County for the period 1981-2000. Sex- and age-standardized incidence rates and 30-day case fatality rate of a first attack of acute pancreatitis were calculated. Data on endoscopic procedures were assessed for the period 1992 to 2000 and on certain drugs for 1991 to 1999. Results: The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis in women increased from 17.1 per 100,000 person-years in 1981 (95% confidence interval (CI), 12.6-23.2) to 37.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2000 (95% CI, 31.0-46.1). The corresponding increase in men was from 18 per 100,000 person-years in 1981 (95% CI, 13.3-24.2) to 27.1 per 100,000 person-years in 2000 (95% CI, 21.5-34.3). The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis increased with age in both sexes. The overall 30-day case fatality rate was 7.5% (95% CI, 6.5-8.7) increasing with age, adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 6.4 (95% CI, 3.5-11.6) and decreased with time, adjusted OR = 0.7 (95% CI, 0.4-1.0). Conclusion: The incidence of acute pancreatitis has increased, and in women surpassed that in men in 1999 and 2000. Short-term prognosis has improved.     

Secular trends in incidence and 30-day case fatality of acute pancreatitis in North Jutland County,Denmark: a register-based study from 1981-2000

BACKGROUND: The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis has been reported as having increased during recent decades in Western countries. Reported mortality lies around 10% and has improved during the past 20 years. The incidence rate and 30-day case fatality rate of acute pancreatitis in North Jutland County, Denmark were examined for the period 1981 to 2000. METHODS: Data were collected from the Hospital Discharge Registry of North Jutland County for the period 1981-2000. Sex- and age-standardized incidence rates and 30-day case fatality rate of a first attack of acute pancreatitis were calculated. Data on endoscopic procedures were assessed for the period 1992 to 2000 and on certain drugs for 1991 to 1999. RESULTS: The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis in women increased from 17.1 per 100,000 person-years in 1981 (95% confidence interval (CI), 12.6-23.2) to 37.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2000 (95% CI, 31.0-46.1). The corresponding increase in men was from 18 per 100,000 person-years in 1981 (95% CI, 13.3-24.2) to 27.1 per 100,000 person-years in 2000 (95% CI, 21.5-34.3). The incidence rate of acute pancreatitis increased with age in both sexes. The overall 30-day case fatality rate was 7.5% (95% CI, 6.5-8.7) increasing with age, adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 6.4 (95% CI, 3.5-11.6) and decreased with time, adjusted OR = 0.7 (95% CI, 0.4-1.0). CONCLUSION: The incidence of acute pancreatitis has increased, and in women surpassed that in men in 1999 and 2000. Short-term prognosis has improved.     

Estimation of Global and Regional Incidence and Prevalence of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms 1990 to 2010

The global burden of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has not been studied previously. Such information is important given the emergence of cardiovascular diseases in developing countries. We conducted a systematic literature review and estimated the global and regional incidence and prevalence of AAA in 21 world regions by age and sex. The search for prevalence and incidence of AAA using standard clinical and epidemiological terms was conducted using MEDLINE (1950 to 2010), EMBASE (1980 to 2010), AMED (1985 to 2010), CINAHL (1982 to 2010), and LILACS (2008 to 2010). Data abstracted from the systematic review served as priors for Bayesian meta-regression analyses. The analysis drew from 26 high-quality studies to estimate AAA prevalence and incidence. In 1990, the global age-specific prevalence rate per 100,000 ranged from 8.43 (95% CI: 7.03 to 10.14) in the 40 to 44 years age group to 2,422.53 (95% CI: 2,298.63 to 2,562.25) in the 75 to 79 years age group; the corresponding range in 2010 was 7.88 (95% CI: 6.54 to 9.59) to 2,274.82 (95% CI: 2,149.77 to 2,410.17). Prevalence was higher in developed versus developing nations, and the rates within each development stratum decreased between 1990 and 2010. Globally, the age-specific annual incidence rate per 100,000 in 1990 ranged from 0.89 (95% CI: 0.66 to 1.17) in 40 to 44 years age group to 176.08 (95% CI: 162.72 to 190.28) in the 75 to 79 years age group. In 2010, this range was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.61 to 1.11) to 164.57 (95% CI: 152.20 to 178.78). The highest prevalence in 1990 was in Australasia and North America high income regions: 382.65 (95% CI: 356.27 to 410.88) and 300.59 (95% CI: 280.93 to 321.54), respectively. Australasia had the highest prevalence in 2010, although the prevalence decreased to 310.27 (95% CI: 289.01 to 332.94). Regional prevalence increased in Oceania, tropical Latin America, Asia Pacific high income, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Central SSA, South Asia, Western SSA, and Central Asia. AAA global prevalence and incidence rates have decreased over the last 20 years. However, rising rates in some regions highlight the need for policies to enhance global disease surveillance and prevention.     

Population-based study of the epidemiology of and the risk factors for pyogenic liver abscess.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pyogenic liver abscess (PLA) is relatively uncommon in North America but is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Our objective was to characterize the incidence of, risk factors for, and outcomes of PLA in a nonselected population. METHODS: Population-based surveillance was conducted in the Calgary Health Region (CHR) between April 1, 1999 and March 31, 2003. All adult CHR residents with PLA were identified, and charts were reviewed. RESULTS: Seventy-one CHR residents developed a PLA for an annual incidence of 2.3 per 100,000 population. There was an increasing incidence of PLA with advancing age. Men were at much higher risk of acquiring a PLA as compared to women (3.3 vs 1.3 per 100,000; relative risk [RR], 2.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-4.6; P < .001), and this was observed across all age groups. A number of comorbid conditions were associated with significantly higher risk for developing a PLA including liver transplantation patients (RR, 444.8; 95% CI, 89.5-1356.0; P < .0001), diabetics (RR, 11.1; 95% CI, 6.3-19; P < .0001), and patients with a history of malignancy (RR, 13.3; 95% CI, 6.9-24.4; P < .0001). No other solid organ transplantation patient was at increased risk. All patients required admission to hospital (median length of stay, 16 days), and 7 (10%) patients died in hospital, corresponding to a mortality rate of 0.22 per 100,000 population. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides important data on the burden of PLA and identifies risk groups that might potentially benefit from preventive efforts.     

Long-term Fracture Risk in Patients with Celiac Disease: A Population-Based Study in Olmsted County,Minnesota

Celiac disease is associated with decreased bone density, but there are conflicting data regarding fracture risk. We determined the fracture incidence relative to matched controls in a population-based cohort with celiac disease before and after diagnosis. Olmsted County residents with celiac disease (n = 83) diagnosed between 1950 and 2002 were compared with 166 gender and age matched controls. Fracture histories were ascertained from each subject’s medical records. Celiac disease is linked to an increased fracture risk before and after diagnosis. Before the index date, cases had a fracture rate twice that of controls (CI: 1.0–3.9, P = 0.045) and 2.5-fold greater after the index date (CI: 1.1–5.6, P = 0.026). Appendicular and axial fractures were 2.5 (CI: 0.9–6.5) and 3.2 times more likely (CI: 1.0–10.5) after the index date. These observations support a rationale for earlier detection of celiac disease, and active management of bone disease before bone effects have occurred, to reduce the persistent risk of fractures.     

The epidemiology of microscopic colitis: a population based study in Olmsted County, Minnesota

OBJECTIVE: Although the epidemiology of microscopic colitis has been described in Europe, no such data exist from North America. We studied the incidence, prevalence and temporal trends of microscopic colitis in a geographically defined US population. DESIGN AND SETTING: In this population based cohort study, residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, with a new diagnosis of microscopic colitis, and all who had colon biopsies for evaluation of diarrhoea, between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2001 were identified. Biopsies were reviewed for confirmation (cases) and to identify missed cases (diarrhoea biopsies). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence rates, age and sex adjusted to the 2000 US white population. Poisson regression assessed the association of calendar period, age and sex with incidence. RESULTS: We identified 130 incident cases for an overall rate of 8.6 cases per 100,000 person-years. There was a significant secular trend, with incidence increasing from 1.1 per 100,000 early in the study to 19.6 per 100,000 by the end (p<0.001). Rates increased with age (p<0.001). By subtype, the incidence was 3.1 per 100,000 for collagenous colitis and 5.5 per 100,000 for lymphocytic colitis. Collagenous colitis was associated with female sex (p<0.001) but lymphocytic colitis was not. Prevalence (per 100,000 persons) on 31 December 2001 was 103.0 (39.3 for collagenous colitis and 63.7 for lymphocytic colitis). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of microscopic colitis has increased significantly over time, and by the end of the study, the incidence and prevalence were significantly higher than reported previously. Microscopic colitis is associated with older age, and collagenous colitis is associated with female sex.     

Further evidence for the rising incidence of childhood Type 1 diabetes in Kuwait.

AIMS: To provide age-gender standardized incidence rate, temporal trend and seasonal variation of Type 1 diabetes in Kuwaiti children aged < or = 14 years. METHODS: Data were prospectively collected over a period of 6 years (1992-1997) according to the DiaMond Project protocol using the capture-recapture method of ascertainment. RESULTS: Data ascertainment varied between 90% and 96%. The incidence rate of Type 1 diabetes was 20.1 per 100,000 children 0-14 years (95% confidence interval (CI) 18.0-22.1); age-standardized incidence rate 20.9 (95% CI 18.8-23.0). The incidence rate among boys, 21.1 per 100,000 (95% CI 18.1-24.1) was slightly higher than that among girls, 19.0 per 100,000 (95% CI 16.1-21.8). The age-standardized incidence rate was 21.9 (95% CI 18.9-24.8) in boys, and 19.9 (95 CI 17.1-22.8) in girls. Incidence rates increased with age in both sexes (boys chi(2) for linear trend = 13.5, P < 0.001; and for girls chi(2) = 27.8, P < 0.0001). There was a significant trend towards increase in overall incidence during the 6-year period (chi(2) = 6.210, P = 0.013), and in age group 5-9 (chi(2) = 10.8, P = 0.001). Seasonality was demonstrated overall, in boys and girls (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The incidence of Type 1 diabetes in Kuwait is high compared with the neighbouring Arab countries, and it appears to be increasing as in many European populations.     

Invasive pneumococcal disease in a cohort of HIV-infected adults: incidence and risk factors, 1990-2003

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between the introduction of HAART and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in HIV-infected patients. METHODS: Incidence of IPD was determined from 1990 to 2003 in a cohort of HIV-infected individuals and a nested case-control study assessed risk factors of IPD. RESULTS: There were 72 cases over 19,020 person-years of follow-up (overall IPD rate, 379/100,000 person-years). In the calendar periods 1990-1995, 1995-1998, and 1998-2003, the IPD incidence per 100,000 person-years was 279 [95% confidence interval (CI), 150-519], 377 (95% CI, 227-625) and 410 (95% CI, 308-545), respectively (P = 0.516). CD4 cell count < 200 cells/microl [odds ratio (OR), 3.0; 95% CI, 1.2-7.6), HIV RNA > 50,000 copies/ml (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.2-6.5), hepatitis C (OR, 4.9; 95% CI, 1.7-14.9), serum albumin (OR, 0.1; 95% CI, 0.04-0.5), injection drug use in women (OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.6-8.8), and education beyond high school (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.05-0.8) were significantly associated with IPD in multivariate analysis. No treatment factor, including HAART (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.3-1.5) and pneumococcal vaccination (OR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.5-1.6), was associated with IPD. CONCLUSIONS: IPD incidence did not change significantly during the widespread dissemination of HAART in this cohort. IPD risk was associated with several sociodemographic and clinical factors.     

Epidemiology of Celiac Sprue: A Community-based Study

Objective: To address the frequency and outcome of celiac disease in a United States community. Methods: We identified all Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents diagnosed with this condition during the period, 1960 through 1990, using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Twenty-eight incident cases (19 women, nine men) were identified. Results: The overall age- and gender-adjusted incidence of celiac disease in the community was 1.2 per 100,000 person-yr (95% CI 0.7,1.6). There were no significant changes in incidence over time, although rates did increase; the incidence was similar in men and women and rose with age in both genders ( p < 0.05). Survival in this inception cohort was 100% at 6 months and 96% at 5 yr, which was not significantly different from expected. The estimated prevalence on January 1, 1991, was 21.8 per 100,000. Conclusion: This study provides the first epi-demiologic data on celiac disease in the United States.     

Update on the incidence and prevalence of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1940-2000

BACKGROUND: We previously reported that the prevalence of Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) in Olmsted County, Minnesota, had risen significantly between 1940 and 1993. We sought to update the incidence and prevalence of these conditions in our region through 2000. METHODS: The Rochester Epidemiology Project allows population-based studies of disease in county residents. CD and UC were defined by previously used criteria. County residents newly diagnosed between 1990 and 2000 were identified as incidence cases, and persons with these conditions alive and residing in the county on January 1, 2001, were identified as prevalence cases. All rates were adjusted to 2000 US Census figures for whites. RESULTS: In 1990-2000 the adjusted annual incidence rates for UC and CD were 8.8 cases per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.2-10.5) and 7.9 per 100,000 (95% CI, 6.3-9.5), respectively, not significantly different from rates observed in 1970-1979. On January 1, 2001, there were 220 residents with CD, for an adjusted prevalence of 174 per 100,000 (95% CI, 151-197), and 269 residents with UC, for an adjusted prevalence of 214 per 100,000 (95% CI, 188-240). CONCLUSION: Although incidence rates of CD and UC increased after 1940, they have remained stable over the past 30 years. Since 1991 the prevalence of UC decreased by 7%, and the prevalence of CD increased about 31%. Extrapolating these figures to US Census data, there were approximately 1.1 million people with inflammatory bowel disease in the US in 2000.     

Detection of Celiac disease in primary care: a multicenter case-finding study in North America

BACKGROUND: Celiac disease (CD) is one of the most common lifelong disorders in western countries. However, most cases remain currently undiagnosed in North America, mostly due to poor awareness of CD by primary care physicians. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were (a) to determine whether an active case-finding strategy in primary care could increase the frequency of CD diagnosis and (b) to determine the most common clinical presentations of the condition. METHODS:This was a multicenter, prospective study involving adult subjects during the years 2002-2004, attending one of the participating practices. All individuals with symptoms or conditions known to be associated with CD were tested for immunoglobulin A anti-transglutaminase (tTG) antibodies, and those with elevated anti-tTG were subsequently tested for IgA antiendomysial antibodies (EMA). All subjects who were positive for EMA were advised to undergo an intestinal biopsy and HLA typing. RESULTS: The study group included 737 women and 239 men, with a median age of 54.3 yr. A positive anti-tTG test was found in 30 out of 976 investigated subjects (3.07%, 95% CI 1.98-4.16). CD was diagnosed in 22 patients (18 women, 4 men). The most frequent reasons for CD screening in these 22 cases were bloating (12/22), thyroid disease (11/22), irritable bowel syndrome (7/22), unexplained chronic diarrhea (6/22), chronic fatigue (5/22), and constipation (4/22). The prevalence of CD in the serologically screened sample was 2.25% (95% CI 1.32-3.18). The diagnostic rate was low at baseline (0.27 cases per thousand visits, 95% CI 0.13-0.41) and significantly increased to 11.6 per thousand visits (95% CI 6.8-16.4, P < 0.001) following active screening implementation. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that an active case-finding strategy in the primary care setting is an effective means to improve the diagnostic rate of CD in North America.     

Incidence of lymphoproliferative disorders in patients with celiac disease

Prior studies describe an increased incidence of lymphoma in celiac disease. However, few studies differentiate among lymphoproliferative disorders (LPDs). Our aim was to determine incidences of LPD subtypes in celiac disease patients, describe patterns of celiac disease presentation in patients who develop LPD, and compare survival in patients with various LPD subtypes. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults with biopsy-proven celiac disease seen at a US referral center from 1981 to 2010, identified patients with comorbid LPD, and calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for each LPD subtype. In our cohort of 1,285 patients with celiac disease, there were 40 patients with LPD [SIR = 6.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.62-8.64] including 33 with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL, SIR = 6.91, 95% CI = 4.26-8.28). The incidences of NHL subtypes including enteropathy-associated T-cell (EATL, n = 12), non-EATL T-cell (SIR = 22.43, 95% CI = 7.08-46.41), diffuse large B-cell (SIR = 5.37, 95% CI = 1.93-10.52), mantle cell (SIR = 32.21, 95% CI = 6.07-78.97), and marginal zone (SIR = 37.17, 11.73-76.89) lymphoma remained significantly elevated when only those diagnosed with celiac before LPD were considered (n = 24, NHL SIR = 4.47, 95% CI = 2.86-6.44). Patients who developed LPD were older at time of celiac disease diagnosis (57.9 ± 15.5 versus 42.5 ± 17.4 years, P < 0.0001) and more likely to present with diarrhea (60.0% versus 39.8% P = 0.016), abdominal pain (17.5% versus 5.5% P = 0.0046), and/or weight loss (12.5% versus 4.0%, P = 0.028). EATL patients had a shorter average survival than non-EATL NHL patients (3.2 versus 15.0 years, P = 0.016). The incidence of LPD is increased in celiac disease patients. Those diagnosed later in life who present with symptoms of malabsorption are more likely to be diagnosed with LPD.     

Trends in treated ventricular fibrillation out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: A 17-year population-based study

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to describe the trends of ventricular fibrillation (VF) out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Rochester, Minnesota, since 1985 and to determine coexistent trends in implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) placement and termination of potentially lethal ventricular arrhythmias that might explain, at least in part, a declining incidence trend. BACKGROUND: The incidence of VF out-of-hospital cardiac arrest treated by emergency medical services (EMS) personnel has declined over the past decade. Because VF out-of-hospital cardiac arrest occurs primarily in the setting of severe coronary artery disease, primary and secondary prevention strategies may account in part for the decline. In particular, ICD use in large primary and secondary prevention clinical trials in patients at high risk of sudden death has demonstrated that these devices improve survival. METHODS: All residents of the City of Rochester, Minnesota, who presented with a VF out-of-hospital cardiac arrest from 1985 to 2002, identified and treated by EMS, were included in the study. In addition, residents of the City of Rochester who received their first ICD implant from 1989 to 2002 were identified. From the ICD records, general demographics, etiology of heart disease, comorbid medical disease, and indication for ICD placement were abstracted. Follow-up data obtained from this population included ICD shocks, the underlying rhythm disturbance, and death. RESULTS: The overall incidence of EMS-treated VF out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Rochester during the study period was 17.1 per 100,000 [95% confidence interval (CI) 15.1-19.4]. The incidence has decreased significantly (P < 0.001) over the study period: 1985-1989: 26.3/100,000 (95% CI 21.0-32.6), 1990-1994: 18.2/100,000 (95% CI 14.1-23.1), 1995-1999: 13.8/100,000 (95% CI 10.4-17.9), 2000-2002: 7.7/100,000 (95% CI 4.7-11.9). One hundred ten patients received an ICD. The placement of ICDs also has increased dramatically over the past 10 years: 1990-1994: 5.0/100,000 to 2000-2002: 20.7/100,000 (P < 0.001). ICDs terminated VF or fast ventricular tachycardia (<270 ms) in 22 patients. Termination of these potentially fatal arrhythmias has shown a trend toward an increase over the study period: 1990-1994: 1.1/100,000 to 2000-2002: 3.5/100,000 (P = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of VF out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is declining. In contrast, the rates of ICD placement and ICD termination of ventricular tachycardia or VF are markedly increasing. Sudden death preventive strategies are multifactorial. These observations suggest that ICD termination of potentially lethal ventricular arrhythmias may contribute to the lower incidence of VF out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.     

Reappraisal of the epidemiology of giant cell arteritis in Olmsted County, Minnesota, over a fifty-year period

OBJECTIVE: To investigate time trends in the incidence and survival of giant cell arteritis (GCA) over a 50-year period in Olmsted County, Minnesota. METHODS: Using the unified record system at the Mayo Clinic, we identified all incident cases of GCA first diagnosed between 1950 and 1999. Incidence rates were estimated and adjusted to the 1980 United States white population for age and sex. The annual incidence rates were graphically illustrated using a 3-year centered moving average. Survival rates were computed and compared with the expected rates in the population. RESULTS: There were 173 incident cases of GCA during the 50-year study period. Of these, 79% were women and the mean age at diagnosis was 74.8 years. The overall age- and sex-adjusted incidence per 100,000 persons 50 years of age or older was 18.8 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 15.9-21.6). Incidence was higher in women (24.4; 95% CI 20.3-28.6) than in men (10.3; 95% CI 6.9-13.6). Incidence rates increased significantly over the study period (P = 0.017); in particular, a progressive increase was observed from 1950 to 1979; subsequently, no substantial increases in incidence rates were observed. A cyclic pattern of annual incidence rates was apparent, with evidence of 6 peak periods. Survival among individuals with GCA was not significantly different from that expected in the population (P = 0.80). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of GCA increased over the first 3 decades of the study, then remained stable over the last 20 years. The previously observed cyclic pattern of annual incidence rates was still apparent over a 50-year period. Overall survival in GCA was similar to that in the population.     

Incidence of juvenile-onset Crohn's disease in Scotland: association with northern latitude and affluence

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The incidence of Crohn's disease in Scottish children has increased steadily over 30 years. Many studies have investigated genetic influence or possible links with childhood events. We aimed to study sociodemographic and/or geographic distribution of juvenile=onset Crohn's disease in Scotland. METHODS: Using a previously established and validated database covering the entire Scottish population, 580 Scottish children (<16 years of age at symptom onset) with inflammatory bowel disease incident between 1981 and 1995 were identified. Postcodes of incident cases were classed for geographic location and material deprivation. Incidence rates (/100,000/year) were sex standardized to the 1991 census population. The effects of sex, geographic location, time, and deprivation category were estimated from a multifactorial Poisson regression model. RESULTS: The incidence of juvenile-onset Crohn's disease was 2.3 (95% CI: 2.0-2.5) for the time period 1981 to 1995 and was significantly higher in northern (3.1, 95% CI: 2.6-3.8) than in southern Scotland (2.1, 95% CI: 1.9-2.4, P < 0.001). The incidence of juvenile-onset ulcerative colitis did not show north/south variation ( P = 0.677). The relative risks of developing CD were significantly lower in postcode areas with deprivation categories 2-7 as compared with deprivation score 1 (most affluent, P = 0.033). This pattern was not seen for UC. CONCLUSIONS: There was an increased incidence of juvenile-onset Crohn's disease in northern compared with southern Scotland. Children from more affluent areas had a higher relative risk of developing Crohn's disease. Juvenile onset ulcerative colitis did not show north/south variation in incidence or association with affluence.     

The incidence of Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis since 1995 in Danish children and adolescents <17 years – based on nationwide registry data

Objective: Worldwide the incidence of pediatric Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) is suspected to be increasing. Based on unselected nationwide register data the aim of this study is to examine the change in incidence of CD and UC in children and adolescents in Denmark.

Materials and methods: All children and adolescents?<17 years with a diagnosis of CD or UC registered in the Danish National Patient Registry from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2013 were included. Using a Poisson regression model we estimated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) for the annual change in the incidence adjusted for gender and age. The cumulative incidence was described using Kaplan–Meier survival analyses.

Results: The IRR for CD was 1.052 (95% CI: 1.039–1.065), and for UC the IRR was 1.022 (95% CI: 1.011–1.033), adjusted for age and gender. The incidence rate of CD increased during the study period to 10.0 (95% CI: 7.5–13.2) per 100,000 person years for girls and 9.4 (95% CI: 7.0–13.2) for boys, in 2013. Similar, the incidence of UC increased to 7.2 (95% CI: 5.0–9.9) per 100,000 person years for girls and 6.2 (95% CI: 4.3–8.7) for boys.

Conclusions: In a period of 19 years from 1995 to 2013 we found an increasing incidence for pediatric UC and CD, especially pronounced for CD.     

The prevalence and incidence of biopsy-proven lupus nephritis in the UK: Evidence of an ethnic gradient

OBJECTIVE: Renal involvement is a major complication of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and is a strong determinant of morbidity and mortality. There have been no previous studies of the epidemiology of lupus nephritis. Our aim was to establish the prevalence and incidence of biopsy-proven lupus nephritis in the northwest of England in 2001 and to examine the influence of age, sex, and ethnicity. METHODS: Adults (age 18 years and older) with biopsy-proven lupus nephritis were identified from 5 sources: renal biopsy databases, dialysis/transplant databases, nephrologists' patients, clinic lists, and lupus patient groups. The denominator data for the northwest of England were ascertained from the 2001 census. RESULTS: We identified 208 cases of biopsy-proven lupus nephritis (176 women, 32 men): the overall prevalence was 4.4 per 100,000 population (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 3.8-5.0), 7.1 per 100,000 (95% CI 6.1-8.2) in women, and 1.4 per 100,000 (95% CI 1.0-2.0) in men. The prevalence was significantly higher among women in the ethnic subgroups: 110.3 per 100,000 population (95% CI 55.0-197.3) in Chinese patients, 99.2 per 100,000 (95% CI 55.5-163.6) in Afro-Caribbean, 21.4 per 100,000 (95% CI 12.0-35.2) in Indo-Asian (Asians from the Indian subcontinent), and 5.6 per 100,000 (95% CI 4.7-6.7) in white patients. The overall annual incidence rate was 0.40 per 100,000 population per year (95% CI 0.24-0.63), with a rate of 0.68 (95% CI 0.40-1.10) in women and 0.09 (95% CI 0.01-0.32) in men. Capture-recapture methods did not suggest any additional cases. CONCLUSION: This first estimate of the prevalence and incidence of biopsy-proven lupus nephritis demonstrates dramatic differences in prevalence according to ethnicity, with an increasing gradient from the white to the Indo-Asian, Afro-Caribbean, and Chinese populations.     

Epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease in the Songpa-Kangdong district, Seoul, Korea, 1986-2005: a KASID study

BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are considered rare diseases in developing countries. We have evaluated the incidence and prevalence of CD and UC over time in a district of Seoul, Korea. METHODS: A population-based study was performed from 1986 to 2005 in the Songpa-Kangdong district of Seoul. To recruit patients as completely as possible, multiple information sources, including all medical facilities in the study area and 3 referral centers nearby but outside the study area, were used. RESULTS: During the 20-year study period, 138 incident cases of CD (102 men, 36 women) and 341 incident cases of UC (170 men, 171 women) were identified. For the 20-year period, the adjusted mean annual incidence rates of CD and UC per 100,000 inhabitants were 0.53 (95% CI 0.44-0.62) and 1.51 (95% CI 1.34-1.67), respectively. When analyzed by 5-year intervals, the mean annual incidence rates of CD and UC increased significantly, from 0.05 and 0.34 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, in 1986-1990 to 1.34 and 3.08 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, in 2001-2005. The adjusted prevalence rates of CD and UC per 100,000 inhabitants on December 31, 2005, were 11.24 (95% CI 9.29-13.18) and 30.87 (95% CI 27.47-34.27), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and prevalence of CD and UC in Seoul, Korea, are still low compared with those in Western countries, but are rapidly increasing.     

Meningococcal disease in a large urban population (Barcelona, 1987-1992): predictors of dismal prognosis. Barcelona Meningococcal Disease Surveillance Group.

CONTEXT: Studies on meningococcal disease in large urban communities have rarely been performed and are usually based on passive epidemiologic surveillance. Active surveillance may provide new insights. OBJECTIVES: To determine epidemiologic, clinical, and bacteriological characteristics and predictors of dismal prognosis (death and sequelae) in meningococcal disease. DESIGN: Prospective, population-based study. SETTING: All the acute care hospitals (n = 24) in Barcelona, Spain. PATIENT: The 643 patients whose conditions were diagnosed from 1987 through 1992 were detected by 2 active surveillance methods. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence and notification to Public Health Service. Clinical and bacteriological features were determined. Dismal prognosis predictors were determined by logistic regression. RESULTS: Average annual incidence was 6.41 per 100,000 inhabitants, with no clear trend of change (P = .08). Sensitivity of the Public Health Service surveillance system was 69.1%. Children younger than 10 years from the inner city were at higher risk than those from the highest income district (relative risk, 3.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.84-5.06). Increasing annual incidence of serogroup C (0.82-1.29/100,000; P = .008) and decreasing incidence of serogroup B (5.11-2.82/100,000; P = .004) was noted. Average annual mortality was 0.40 per 100,000 inhabitants, while the annual average potential years of life lost was 18 per 100,000 inhabitants. Overall case-fatality rate was 6.4%. Independent predictors of death were hemorrhagic diathesis (odds ratio [OR], 63; 95% CI, 21-194), focal neurologic signs (OR, 10; 95% CI, 3-30), and age 60 years or older (OR, 6; 95% CI, 2-17), whereas preadmission antibiotic therapy was associated with favorable outcome (OR, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.02-0.3). Four percent of survivors presented with sequelae. Independent predictors of sequelae were hemorrhagic diathesis (OR, 21; 95% CI, 3-131), focal neurologic signs (OR, 16; 95% CI, 5-53), age 60 years or older (OR, 7; 95% CI, 2-26), and age between 15 and 59 years (OR, 5; 95% CI, 2-14), whereas preadmission antibiotic therapy had a protective effect (OR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.04-0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Active epidemiologic surveillance significantly improved detection of cases and allowed us to observe that meningococcal disease still causes much morbidity and mortality, especially among children living in the inner city. Hemorrhagic diathesis, focal neurologic signs, and age were independent predictors of dismal prognosis, whereas preadmission antibiotic therapy had a protective effect.