Attrition and bias in the MRC cognitive function and ageing study: an epidemiological investigation

Background  

Any hypothesis in longitudinal studies may be affected by attrition and poor response rates. The MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing study (MRC CFAS) is a population based longitudinal study in five centres with identical methodology in England and Wales each recruiting approximately 2,500 individuals. This paper aims to identify potential biases in the two-year follow-up interviews.     

A semi-competing risks model for data with interval-censoring and informative observation: an application to the MRC cognitive function and ageing study

Semi-competing risks data occur frequently in medical research when interest is in simultaneous modelling of two or more processes, one of which may censor the others. We consider the analysis of semi-competing risks data in the presence of interval-censoring and informative loss-to-followup. The work is motivated by a data set from the MRC UK Cognitive Function and Ageing Study, which we use to model two processes, cognitive impairment and death. Analysis is carried out using a multi-state model, which is an extension of that used by Siannis et al. (Statist. Med. 2007; 26:426–442) to model semi-competing risks data with exact transition times, to data which is interval-censored. Model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood. The role of a sensitivity parameter k, which influences the nature of informative censoring, is explored.     

A prospective baseline study of frail older people before the introduction of an intermediate care service

This paper describes the first part of a two-stage research project designed to investigate the clinical and service outcomes of a comprehensive intermediate care service. It is a baseline study of patients presenting to two elderly care departments as emergencies with the clinical syndromes of falls, incontinence, confusion or poor mobility before the introduction of a city-wide intermediate care service. The outcome measures were: mortality; disability (Barthel Index, BI); social activities (Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living); service use; and carer distress (General Health Questionnaire -28). These were measured at 3, 6 and 12 months after recruitment. Eight hundred and twenty-three patients were recruited (median age = 84 years; proportion of women = 70%; proportion with cognitive impairment = 45%; median BI score = 15). There was a high mortality rate (36%), evidence for incomplete recovery, a gradual decline in independence over 12 months and a high degree of carer stress. There was little use of rehabilitation services (< 5%), about 25% required readmission to hospital by each assessment point and there was a gradual increase in institutional care admissions. These findings support a needs-based argument for a more comprehensive community service for frail older people.     

Breaking down barriers: integrating health and care services for older people in England

Like many other post-industrial societies, England is facing demographic and political pressures to reduce the fragmentation of services for older people. Moreover, current government policies emphasise collaboration and 'partnership', particularly between health and social care services. Recently, two new policy initiatives have enabled the full integration of services to take place, involving formerly separate health and social care organisations-between family doctors (general practitioners) and community health services, and between health and social services organisations. Both initiatives also allow the pooling of previously separate funding streams. This paper presents findings from evaluations of these two initiatives. Drawing on this evidence, the paper concludes that structural integration can transform preoccupations over narrow sectoral responsibilities and boundaries to a 'whole systems' paradigm of service planning and delivery. However, major internal barriers to integration may remain: these include professional domains and identities, and differential power relationships between newly integrated services and professionals. Moreover, the success of these new horizontal, inter-organisational arrangements is profoundly influenced by the wider policy environment and by vertical relationships with national government. Together, these pressures exclude the voices of older people, and therefore call into question whether the considerable organisational upheaval of service integration will be able to deliver the changes valued by older people themselves.     

Strategies to improve the quality of oral health care for frail and dependent older people.

The dental profile of the population of most industrialised countries is changing. For the first time in at least a century most elderly people in the United Kingdom will soon have some of their own natural teeth. This could be beneficial for the frail and dependent elderly, as natural teeth are associated with greater dietary freedom of choice and good nutrition. There may also be problems including high levels of dental disease associated with poor hygiene and diet. New data from a national oral health survey in Great Britain is presented. The few dentate elderly people in institutions at the moment have poor hygiene and high levels of dental decay. If these problems persist as dentate younger generations get older, the burden of care will be substantial. Many dental problems in elderly people are preventable or would benefit from early intervention. Strategies to approach these problems are presented.     

Educational differences in the dynamics of disability incidence, recovery and mortality: Findings from the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS)

BACKGROUND: This study aims to establish the extent of educational differences in the disability transitions of incidence, recovery and mortality in people aged 65 years and over, whether these can be explained by differentials in disease burden and their relative contribution to educational differences in prevalence and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE). METHODS: A stratified random sample of 13 004 participants in five areas in England and Wales were interviewed in 1991-94 and followed up at 2, 6 (one centre only) and 10 years. Two levels of disability were analysed: mobility difficulty and activities of daily living (ADL) disability. We fitted logistic regression models to model educational differences in disability prevalence, incidence, recovery and mortality transitions. DFLE was calculated to assess the combined effect of the dynamic transitions. RESULTS: Those with < or =9 years education had higher ADL and mobility disability prevalence and higher incidence and lower recovery of mobility disability. Differences in disability incidence remained after adjustment for comorbidity. Women with the lowest education had shorter life expectancies (1.7 years less at the age of 65 years) than the most educated and had even shorter DFLE (1.9 years free of ADL disability and 2.8 years free of mobility difficulty at the age of 65 years). CONCLUSIONS: Differentials in education continue to contribute to prevalence of disability at ages beyond 65 years in both men and women and independently of diseases. These appear to be driven predominantly by differentials in disability incidence that also compound to produce greater differentials in DFLE between education groups than in total years lived.     

Cost‐minimisation analysis of home care reablement for older people in England: A modelling study

Many governments have introduced or encouraged home‐care reablement schemes for older people at home with the aim of improving outcomes and reducing costs. We examined if such schemes have the potential to reduce costs from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) and Personal Social Services (PSS) in England. Our study was carried out to inform recommendations of a national guideline. Cost‐minimisation analysis was carried out using decision‐analytic Markov modelling. Home‐care reablement was compared with standard home care. Costs included those of the intervention, home care and hospital admission. Uncertainty was explored using univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Mean costs per person were £56,499 (95% confidence interval 55,690 to 57,307) in the reablement group, and £58,560 (95% confidence interval 57,800 to 59,319) in the standard care group. The mean difference was ‐£2,061 (95% confidence interval 1,933 to 2,129). The probability that home‐care reablement costs less than standard home care was 94.5% (95% confidence interval 93.1 to 95.9). In sensitivity analyses, this probability remained above 85% in all scenarios. Home‐care reablement can be a successful cost‐minimisation strategy for supporting some older people. More research is needed about the impact of home‐care reablement on health outcomes for different groups of older people; and the effects of different durations of reablement on outcomes and costs for different subpopulations.     

Construct validity and reliability of a two-step tool for the identification of frail older people in primary care

ObjectivesTo study the reliability and construct validity of the EASY-Care Two-step Older persons Screening (EASY-Care TOS), a practice-based tool that helps family physicians (FPs) to identify their frail older patients.Study Design and SettingThis validation study was conducted in six FP practices. We determined the construct validity by comparing the results of the EASY-Care TOS with other commonly used frailty constructs [Fried Frailty Criteria (FFC), Frailty Index (FI)] and with other related constructs (ie, multimorbidity, disability, cognition, mobility, mental well-being, and social context). To determine interrater reliability, an independent second EASY-Care TOS assessment was made for a subpopulation.ResultsWe included 587 older patients (mean age 77 ± 5 years, 56% women). According to EASY-Care TOS, 39.4% of patients were frail. EASY-Care TOS frailty correlated better with FI frailty (0.63) than with FFC frailty (0.52). A high correlation was found with multimorbidity (0.50), disabilities (0.53), and mobility (0.55) and a moderate correlation with cognition (0.31) and mental well-being (0.38). Reliability testing showed 89% agreement (Cohen's κ 0.63) between EASY-Care TOS frailty judgment by two different assessments.ConclusionEASY-Care TOS correlated well with relevant physical and psychosocial measures. Accordingly, these results show that the EASY-Care TOS identifies patients who have a wide spectrum of interacting problems.     

Fish consumption and cognitive function among older people in the UK: Baseline data from the OPAL study

Background  Observational epidemiological data suggest that habitual consumption in later life of oily fish, rich in n-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 LCPs), is associated with better cognitive function, slower rates of cognitive decline and a lower risk of dementia. In this paper we present data on baseline fish consumption and cognitive function in cognitively healthy older people randomised onto the Older People And n-3 Long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid (OPAL) study. Methods  In total, 867 older people were recruited to join the OPAL study from 20 general practices in England and Wales. Participants were aged 70–79 years at baseline were free of dementia and diabetes, had a Mini-Mental State Examination score of 24 or greater and did not report daily fish oil supplement consumption. Self-reported habitual fish consumption was assessed at baseline via questions on frequency and type of fish consumption. Cognitive function at baseline was assessed via validated cognitive tests assessing memory, executive function, psychomotor speed and attention, including the Californian Verbal Learning Test (CVLT), the primary outcome of the OPAL study. Reported age at leaving full time education was recorded as a measure of educational achievement and psychological health was measured using the GHQ-30 questionnaire. Results  Unadjusted analysis revealed significant positive associations between reported fish consumption and the CVLT scores with a mean increase of approximately 0.24 words remembered for each increase in level of reported fish consumption. These associations were noticeably attenuated on adjustment for age, gender and reported age at leaving full-time education and did not remain significant on further adjustment for GHQ-30 score. Similar associations were also observed between fish consumption and the global cognitive z-score, memory score, executive function score and delay scores in unadjusted analysis with the associations again attenuated on adjustment. Conclusions  Baseline data from participants randomised into the OPAL study provide support for the hypothesis that higher fish consumption is associated with better cognitive function in later life. However, although in the main associations remain after adjusting for education and psychological health, the data do not allow us to rule out the possibility of residual confounding e.g. from socioeconomic status or other health behaviours. Evidence is needed from randomised clinical trials to clarify the role of n-3 LCPs in cognitive health in later life in the normal older person population.     

Progress and problems in developing outcomes-focused social care services for older people in England

Social care services for adults are increasingly required to focus on achieving the outcomes that users aspire to, rather than on service inputs or provider concerns. This paper reports a study aimed at assessing progress in developing outcomes-focused services for older people and the factors that help and hinder this. It describes the current policy context and discusses the social care service outcomes desired by older people. It then reports on a postal survey that identified over 70 outcomes-focused social care initiatives across England and Wales, and case studies of progress in developing outcomes-focused social care services in six localities. The study found progress in developing outcomes-focused services was relatively recent and somewhat fragmented. Developments in intermediate care and re-ablement services, focusing on change outcomes, were marked; however, there appeared to be a disjunction between these and the capacity of home care services to address desired maintenance outcomes. Process outcomes were addressed across a range of re-ablement, day care and residential services. The paper concludes by discussing some of the challenges in developing outcomes-focused social care services.     

Understanding the dynamics of life in care homes for older people: implications for de-institutionalizing practice

This paper describes some of the findings of a study undertaken to examine the processes of adaptation that older people engage in when moving into care homes, that is nursing and residential homes. In particular, the paper presents data from resident interviews which indicate the importance of the relationships that they develop with each other, and also data from staff focus groups, which indicates that staff have a limited awareness of this. We contend that attempts to develop practice in care homes to overcome the effects of institutionalization, frequently promoted through the concept of individualized care within the context of the carer-resident relationship, could benefit from a parallel recognition of the importance of resident groups in enhancing the experience of life in care homes. In other words, just as individuals have needs, so too do the home communities of which these people are members.     

Use of formal and informal care services among older people in Ireland and France

This paper focuses on current use of elderly care services in Ireland and France. In light of health care resource allocation problems, it is important to know the level of current use of home care on which future projections may be based. With the availability of SHARE (Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe) data, it is now possible to analyse this process and estimate the relationship between formal and informal care, and our econometric model tests for endogeneity of informal care. Previous research has not included Ireland into the analysis. Given that Ireland has a younger population base, lessons could be learned from countries with older populations, such as France. Results suggest informal care is endogenous and negatively linked with formal care in the pooled (France and Ireland) model. There is a higher unmet need for care in Ireland. These results have important policy implications for Ireland as the demographic makeup will change from 11 per cent to 15 per cent of older people over the next 10 years.     

Means without ends: justifying supportive home care for frail older people in Canada, 1990-2010

The challenges associated with ageing populations are very much on the policy and research agenda of many nations, with significant discussions focused on establishing appropriate, acceptable parameters of home care for those who are older and frail. This paper develops an analysis of changing justifications of home care in Canada (1990-2010) through examination of governmental and non-governmental home care policy documents and position papers, as well as observations from recent fieldwork in home care. Boltanski and Thévenot's sociology of justification provides a framework for analysis of these situations where competing and irreducible pluralities of goods complicate discussions of the 'right' way to proceed.     

Changing the balance of social care for older people: simulating scenarios under demographic ageing in New Zealand

The demographic ageing of New Zealand society, as elsewhere in the developed world, has dramatically increased the proportion of older people (aged 65 years and over) in the population. This has major policy implications for the future organisation of social care. Our objective was to test the effects on social care use, first, of putative changes in the overall disability profile of older people, and second, of alterations to the balance of their care, i.e. whether it was community‐based or residential. In order to undertake these experiments, we developed a microsimulation model of the later life course using individual‐level data from two official national survey series on health and disability, respectively, to generate a synthetic version which replicated original data and parameter settings. A baseline projection under current settings from 2001 to 2021 showed moderate increases in disability and associated social care use. Artificially decreasing disability levels, below the baseline projection, only moderately reduced the use of community care (both informal and formal). Scenarios implemented by rebalancing towards informal care use moderately reduced formal care use. However, only moderate compensatory increases in community‐based care were required to markedly decrease the transition to residential care. The disability impact of demographic ageing may not have a major negative effect on system resources in developed countries like New Zealand. As well as healthy ageing, changing the balance of social care may alleviate the impact of increasing demand due to an expanding population of older people.     

Comparing and contrasting the role of family carers and nurses in the domestic health care of frail older people

Care in the community has been constructed on the basis of professional support for carers who, as a result of community care policy that has released highly dependant people from residential care and long-stay wards, are carrying out a wide range of tasks, including complex health care activities. The present paper examines the health care activities currently undertaken by family carers and the way in which they work with, and are supported by, professional nurses in the home. It compares and contrasts the approaches of both groups to care-giving for this client group. The authors conclude by making some suggestions for improving the way in which family carers and nurses work together in the home.     

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive behaviour therapy versus talking and usual care for depressed older people in primary care

Background  

Whilst evidence suggests cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) may be effective for depressed older people in a primary care setting, few studies have examined its cost-effectiveness. The aim of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT), a talking control (TC) and treatment as usual (TAU), delivered in a primary care setting, for older people with depression.     

Costs and economic consequences of a help‐at‐home scheme for older people in England

Solutions to support older people to live independently and reduce the cost of an ageing population are high on the political agenda of most developed countries. Help‐at‐home schemes offer a mix of community support with the aim to address a range of well‐being needs. However, not much is currently known about the costs, outcomes and economic consequences of such schemes. Understanding their impact on individuals’ well‐being and the economic consequences for local and central government can contribute to decisions about sustainable long‐term care financing. This article presents results from a mixed‐methods study of a voluntary sector‐provided help‐at‐home scheme in England for people of 55 years and older. The study followed a participatory approach, which involved staff and volunteers. Data were collected during 2012 and 2013. Social care‐related quality of life was measured with the Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit for 24 service users (59% response rate) when they started using the scheme and 4–6 months later. A customised questionnaire that captured resource use and well‐being information was sent to 1064 service users (63% response rate). The same tool was used in assessment with service users who started using the scheme between November 2012 and April 2013 (100% response rate). Costs of the scheme were established from local budget and activity data. The scheme was likely to achieve a mean net benefit of £1568 per person from a local government and National Health Service (NHS) perspective and £3766 from the perspective of the individual. An expenditure of £2851 per person accrued to central government for the additional redistribution of benefit payments to older people. This article highlights the potential contribution of voluntary sector‐run help‐at‐home schemes to an affordable welfare system for ageing societies.     

Investigating the relationship between social care supply and healthcare utilization by older people in England

Since 2010, adult social care spending in England has fallen significantly in real terms whilst demand has risen. Reductions in social care supply may also have impacted demand for NHS services, particularly for those whose care is provided at the interface of the health and care systems. We analyzed a panel dataset of 150 local authorities (councils) to test potential impacts on hospital utilization by people aged 65 and over: emergency admission rates for falls and hip fractures (“front‐door” measures); and extended stays of 7 days or longer; and 21 days or longer (“back‐door” measures). Changes in social care supply were assessed in two ways: gross current expenditure (per capita 65 and over) adjusted by local labor costs and social care workforce (per capita 18 and over). We ran negative binomial models, controlling for deprivation, ethnicity, age, unpaid care, council class, and year effects. To account for potential endogeneity, we ran instrumental variable regressions and dynamic panel models. Sensitivity analysis explored potential effects of funding for integrated care (the Better Care Fund). There was no consistent evidence that councils with higher per capita spend or higher social care staffing rates had lower hospital admission rates or shorter hospital stays.     

The (cost‐)effectiveness of preventive,integrated care for community‐dwelling frail older people: A systematic review

Integrated care is increasingly promoted as an effective and cost‐effective way to organise care for community‐dwelling frail older people with complex problems but the question remains whether high expectations are justified. Our study aims to systematically review the empirical evidence for the effectiveness and cost‐effectiveness of preventive, integrated care for community‐dwelling frail older people and close attention is paid to the elements and levels of integration of the interventions. We searched nine databases for eligible studies until May 2016 with a comparison group and reporting at least one outcome regarding effectiveness or cost‐effectiveness. We identified 2,998 unique records and, after exclusions, selected 46 studies on 29 interventions. We assessed the quality of the included studies with the Effective Practice and Organization of Care risk‐of‐bias tool. The interventions were described following Rainbow Model of Integrated Care framework by Valentijn. Our systematic review reveals that the majority of the reported outcomes in the studies on preventive, integrated care show no effects. In terms of health outcomes, effectiveness is demonstrated most often for seldom‐reported outcomes such as well‐being. Outcomes regarding informal caregivers and professionals are rarely considered and negligible. Most promising are the care process outcomes that did improve for preventive, integrated care interventions as compared to usual care. Healthcare utilisation was the most reported outcome but we found mixed results. Evidence for cost‐effectiveness is limited. High expectations should be tempered given this limited and fragmented evidence for the effectiveness and cost‐effectiveness of preventive, integrated care for frail older people. Future research should focus on unravelling the heterogeneity of frailty and on exploring what outcomes among frail older people may realistically be expected.