广西壮族自治区2009-2011年传染病自动预警系统运行效果分析

目的分析中国传染病自动预警系统(CIDARS)在广西壮族自治区(广西)传染病暴发早期探测中应用效果.方法对2009-2011年预警系统移动百分位数法的预警信号及其信号响应率、响应时间、信号核实方式及响应结果进行描述性分析,并比较2010年12月10日预警参数调整前后的预警效果.结果广西区域内CIDARS共发出16种传染病的29 788条预警信号,平均每县每周约产生预警信号1.7条.信号响应率为100%,平均响应时间为1.5h.其中624条信号(2.09%)经初步核实后被判断为疑似暴发事件,经过现场调查最终确认9种传染病的191起暴发.总体上预警灵敏度为89.25%,探测及时性为2.8d.与预警参数调整前比较,预警参数调整后每月预警信号数减少,各病种预警灵敏度上升;除流行性腮腺炎外,流感、风疹及其他感染性腹泻的预警及时性均有所提高.结论CIDARS在广西区域内预警信号响应率和响应及时性较高,通过调整预警参数可进一步改进预警系统的应用效果,但目前假阳性信号所占比例仍较大,需根据不同疾病的特点改进预警方法.     

浙江省2012年传染病自动预警系统运行情况分析

目的分析评价中国传染病自动预警系统(CIDARS)在浙江省的预警应用效果.方法对浙江省2012年传染病自动预警监测数据进行描述性分析,并与同期报告病例数及相关突发公共卫生事件进行比较.结果2012年浙江省预警系统共发出28种传染病14 292条预警信号,响应率为100%,平均响应时间为0.81 h.其中123条信号(0.86%)经初步核实判断为疑似事件,经过现场调查确认33起暴发,预警阳性率为0.23%.预警病种的报告病例数与预警信号数呈正相关变化(r=0.97,P<0.01);预警县(区)数与信号数呈正相关(r=0.80,P<0.01).结论CIDARS运行良好,能够辅助基层疾病预防控制机构早期发现可能的传染病暴发,但预警信号阳性率较低,不同地区、不同病种的预警效果存在差别.     

我国传染病监测预警系统的发展与应用

本文综述了我国国家、省级/区域、医疗机构三个层面的传染病监测预警系统的特点与发展现状,介绍了三个层面传染病监测预警系统的应用效果与存在问题。各系统均存在预警信息来源单一,预警模型设计简单,以不具有学习能力的固定性模型为主;预警系统的有效性与准确性均不高的特点。医疗机构的传染病监测预警功能应包括已知传染病的个案预警和暴发预警、新发/突发传染病个案预警与暴发疫情预警。已知传染病个案预警系统较好地解决了已知传染病的漏报问题,但传染病暴发及新发/突发传染病的预警研究仍需进一步加强。提出采用大数据等技术拓宽整合传染病监测预警系统数据信息来源,收集医疗机构内和社会相关传染病暴发流行异动信息;应实现预警数据的多元化与集成化,预警模型设计应引入机器学习、人工智能等新技术,提高预警系统的有效性与准确性。最终建立我国国家、省级/区域、医疗机构三层面的传染病智慧化预警多点触发机制和多渠道监测预警平台。     

深圳市2018学年上学期学生因病缺勤监测情况

掌握深圳市学生因病缺勤的情况,为降低学生因病缺勤率提供参考.方法 对“深圳市学生健康监测系统”中2018学年上学期学生因病缺勤及症状监测资料进行描述性分析,并与2017学年上学期数据进行对比分析.结果 2018学年上学期深圳市学生健康监测信息系统上报最多的症状是发热(5.82%);不同学段上报症状构成不同,学前和小学阶段是流感样症状(发热、咳嗽和咽痛)的高发阶段(8.55%,21.85%,4.02%;7.04%,3.00%,1.55%),高中阶段则易发生腹泻(10.52%).流感对因病缺勤的影响较大,所占比例在2017年和2018年分别排第2和第4,传染病预警中流感相关预警比例达77.85%.2018年预警例数和峰值远低于2017学年上学期.结论 应重视流感季节性流行的预防,加强因病缺勤登记上报,提前采取干预措施;不同学段针对性加强相关疾病健康教育、普及防病知识,避免疾病的发生.     

甘肃省流感流行预警方法探研

目的 探索适合甘肃省流感流行的预警方法。方法 分别用简单控制图法、移动百分位数法、指数平滑法及累积和控制图法对2014－2015年度甘肃省流感样病例监测数据进行预警分析,结合灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、约登指数、Kappa值等指标,比较和评价4种方法的预警效果。结果 2014－2015年度甘肃省流感流行高峰起始时间为2014年第50周,流行高峰持续6周。4种预警方法中以累积和控制图法预警效果最优,能及时发出预警信号,灵敏度及特异度分别为66.67%和93.48%。结论 累积和控制图法适合甘肃省流感流行高峰预警。     

传染病暴发或流行的探测、监测和预警

传染病继续成为全球发病死亡主要原因之一,影响公众健康生命、社会经济发展甚至国家安全。早期探测重点是及时、敏感地发现传染病暴发流行异常信息,并进行现场调查和核实,也是有效监测、预警系统的前期;有效监测、预警系统能够全面准确地认识特定传染病暴发流行可能发生的事实条件、驱动因素和传播链,并提出科学有效预防控制策略措施;因衡量收集具体数据的资源支撑和价值大小,难以及时、完整、准确地获得流行病学、病原学等数据信息。本文综述传染病早期探测、有效监测、有效预警理论技术,整合利用中国有效传染病监测预警体系和多时空节点触发与多学科渠道监测暴发流行情况、病因、风险、过程和驱动因素的多源数据,构建运行敏感特异、分期度量的中国（急性）传染病监测、预警和响应创新技术体系,为加强新发重大传染病和传染病突发公共卫生事件监测预警、避免应对不力传染病蔓延与防止过度响应资源浪费提供依据。     

中国输入传染病传播风险评估地理信息系统的建立

目的 建立地理信息应用系统分析全球各地域主要传染病的时空分布及其输入传播风险，为境外传染病输入传播风险的评估与防控提供基础信息和决策依据。方法 系统收集全球2000年以来重要传染病流行及暴发疫情信息、中国大陆2014－2016年入境人群的传染病主动监测信息、全球国际航班及客流量信息、人口与环境等多源信息，基于地理信息系统技术建立全球重要传染病疫情时空分布数据库，集成时空分析、概率风险评估等模型与地理信息可视化技术建立中国输入传染病传播风险评估地理信息系统。结果 中国输入传染病传播风险评估地理信息系统集成全球220个国家和地区60种重要传染病分布及暴发疫情信息以及42种入境传染病主动监测数据，系统集成的时空分析模型可用于快速评估全球各区域主要传染病的种类及其潜在威胁，并展示各省份入境人群的传染病输入感染特征与疾病负担，概率风险评估模型能够模拟评估全球不同区域出现传染病暴发疫情后经航空途径输入我国各区域的风险。结论 中国输入传染病传播风险评估地理信息系统为境外传染病的流行病学侦察与输入传播风险评估提供基础数据，将有助于我国境外输入传染病的监测与防控。     

深圳市学生健康监测信息系统运行情况分析

了解学生健康监测信息系统运行情况,为该系统在学校学生传染病疫情防控中发挥更大作用提供科学依据.方法 由校医经过统一培训后通过系统上报数据,对系统收集的早期症状监测、学生缺勤情况和疫情短信预警信息进行分析,验证系统运行情况.结果 2012-2013学年,系统共监测学生约94万人,监测各类疾病症状142 050人次,学生因病缺勤82 431人次.症状监测个案数按周分布呈“驼峰状”.2013年2-4月,系统共发布556条预警信息,其中疾病类型预警400例,症状预警156例,预警覆盖率为37.5%;3月预警比率最高(44.68‰),2月最低(1.39‰).结论 学生健康监测信息系统的运行能够及时掌握学生的主要疾病症状和因病缺勤情况,并及时对学校传染病疫情进行预警.     

中国2005－2013年流感暴发疫情的流行病学特征分析

目的 分析2005－2013年我国流感暴发疫情的流行病学特征。方法 针对2005－2013年全国通过“突发公共卫生事件报告管理信息系统”和“中国流感监测信息系统”中报告的发病10例及以上的流感样病例暴发,根据实验室检测结果判定其中的流感暴发疫情,并对引起流感暴发的病毒型/亚型及暴发的时间、地区、场所分布、规模进行描述性流行病学分析。结果 2005－2013年全国共报告流感样病例暴发疫情3 252起,其中经实验室确认的流感暴发2 915起,以甲型H1N1流感和乙型流感为主。流感暴发病例中以2009－2010年甲型H1N1流感大流行期间报告最多,其他季节主要集中于冬春季,在学校寒暑假期间迅速减少。南方省份报告的流感暴发较多,占总起数的79%。流感暴发的最主要场所为中小学校,报告暴发疫情2 763起(占总起数的85%),暴发规模以30~99例为主。结论 我国每年冬春流感流行季节发生大量流感暴发疫情,病毒型别存在季节间差异,中小学校是流感暴发的重点场所。     

传染病监测和预警系统研究进展

应对SARS、禽流感、甲H1N1流感和其他传染病暴发的经验显示,灵敏、高效的传染病监测预警体系是控制传染病蔓延的关键,是降低疾病危害的基础。有效控制不断涌现的新发传染病,除需建立传染病监测预警系统外,还要不断地提高系统的综合能力以适应疾病流行的新特征和新形势。本文从全球传染病流行趋势入手,综述了世界部分国家传染病监测与预警系统的建设状况及职能分布情况,以期为建立适合我国传染病流行特征的传染病监测和预警体系提供信息与参考。     

建设部门协同机制和监测网络应对沙门菌感染疫情

沙门菌病为常见的食源性疾病, 经常发生局部和跨地区的暴发流行, 随着全球经贸往来的日益频繁, 沙门菌跨境传播的风险也在不断增加。近期多国出现巧克力相关单相鼠伤寒沙门菌感染暴发疫情, 对我国食源性疾病特别是沙门菌病的监测和预警提出了更高的要求。加强临床机构与疾控和食品安全监测机构的合作、提升沙门菌基因组测序分析以及应用于流行病学监测和暴发溯源的能力、加强食品安全相关各部门间信息沟通及协作, 是及时发现暴发及传播、预防和控制传播的主要手段, 也是食源性疾病监测亟待加强的地方。     

We Can Have It All: Improved Surveillance Outcomes and Decreased Personnel Costs Associated With Electronic Reportable Disease Surveillance,North Carolina, 2010

Objectives. We assessed the timeliness, accuracy, and cost of a new electronic disease surveillance system at the local health department level. We describe practices associated with lower cost and better surveillance timeliness and accuracy.Methods. Interviews conducted May through August 2010 with local health department (LHD) staff at a simple random sample of 30 of 100 North Carolina counties provided information on surveillance practices and costs; we used surveillance system data to calculate timeliness and accuracy. We identified LHDs with best timeliness and accuracy and used these categories to compare surveillance practices and costs.Results. Local health departments in the top tertiles for surveillance timeliness and accuracy had a lower cost per case reported than LHDs with lower timeliness and accuracy ($71 and $124 per case reported, respectively; P = .03). Best surveillance practices fell into 2 domains: efficient use of the electronic surveillance system and use of surveillance data for local evaluation and program management.Conclusions. Timely and accurate surveillance can be achieved in the setting of restricted funding experienced by many LHDs. Adopting best surveillance practices may improve both efficiency and public health outcomes.Communicable disease reporting is central to public health surveillance, providing data to detect outbreaks and to describe disease trends.1 Over the past 10 years, communicable disease surveillance has transitioned from traditional paper-based disease reports to electronic reporting.2 All states have converted parts or all of their disease reporting to electronic systems, and most states now use an electronic system to enter and transmit case information at local and state public health agencies.3The transition to electronic reporting has resulted in corresponding modifications to surveillance practice, including changes in who enters and accesses communicable disease case data and how these data are entered at local and state health department levels.4–6 These and other changes have been described at the state level,3,7,8 but less information is available describing changes at the local level. Furthermore, there is little documented information on the cost or cost-effectiveness of electronic communicable disease surveillance systems at any level. Because funds for local public health are scarce and must be prioritized on the basis of costs and benefits, information about the costs of electronic disease surveillance is needed.In 2008, North Carolina implemented the North Carolina Electronic Disease Surveillance System (NC EDSS). The goal of this study was to describe the resources dedicated to communicable disease surveillance with NC EDSS at the local health department (LHD) level. We examined the cases reported before and after NC EDSS implementation and calculated personnel costs associated with communicable disease reporting with the NC EDSS system. Finally, we assigned LHDs composite scores on the basis of accuracy and timeliness of case reports, and compared costs and surveillance practices for LHDs with better and worse timeliness and accuracy.     

Infectious disease surveillance in North Rhine-Westphalia: first steps in the development of an early warning system

It is often difficult to detect warning signals on infectious disease outbreaks from raw surveillance data. Data need to be used for a timely generation and distribution of information on the current state of infectious diseases. This offers the opportunity to detect outbreaks and to initiate preventive measures. To improve the surveillance system in North Rhine-Westphalia we have introduced an infectious disease barometer, a simple tool based on weekly notification data. The aim of this tool is not to provide in depth data analysis, but to help to detect clusters or outbreaks. This can be the first step in the development of an early warning system and can support epidemiological investigation and policy making.     

深圳市2005～2006年传染病暴发疫情监测分析

目的对深圳市2005～2006年暴发疫情监测系统的运行结果进行流行病学分析,分析两年监测结果的异同。方法对法定传染病疫情及常见的非法定传染病疫情报告建立主动监测网络直报系统,应用描述性流行病学方法,从深圳市暴发疫情监测系统导出2005及2006年的监测数据Excel报表,利用SPSS13.0进行统计分析。结果深圳市2006年聚集性病例及暴发疫情共报告204起,总病例数2423例,分别较2005年上升89%和51%。2006年暴发疫情仍以流感、水痘、流行性腮腺炎为代表的呼吸道传染病为主;暴发疫情多集中发生在中小学和幼儿园等集体单位;2006年传染病暴发疫情的高峰在春季;与2005年暴发疫情大多类似但略有区别。结论深圳市2006年传染病暴发疫情较2005年有明显增加,但流行特征类似。依托各级疾控机构和医疗机构建立的暴发疫情网络直报系统是行之有效的,它能与国家疾病监测信息报告管理系统互为补充。     

新发呼吸道传染病多渠道监测和多维度预警体系研究与思考

新发呼吸道传染病暴发流行让全世界付出了沉重的代价, 也让传染病的监测和预警工作受到越来越多人的重视。本文简要回顾了我国呼吸道传染病监测和预警体系的建设历程, 探讨了传染病监测预警的未来发展趋势, 对新出现的传染病监测方法、预警模式进行综述, 寻求未来构建传染病多渠道监测和多维度预警系统的方法, 为提升我国新发呼吸道传染病防控水平提供建议。     

Infection surveillance in North Rhine-Westphalia--standard reports, barometer and early warning system

The increasing significance of communicable diseases requires new surveillance tools. Modern electronic instruments in analysis and communication replace the former "handbased" statistics and allow the development of early warning systems. In North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) the Institute of Public Health started an approach to develop a modular surveillance system prior to the the implementation of the new German infectious disease protection act. The first module called "Automated infectious disease notifications and information system (AIM+)" generates various standard hypertext reports which are published as "Infectious disease reports NRW" on the internet (www.loegd.nrw.de). In addition the infectious disease information is linked with a geographical information system (GIS) giving spatial and temporal patterns. The second module called "Infectious disease barometer NRW" offers a quick actual overview highlighting several selected diseases. It can be electronically sent out to any interested person. The third module "Early warning system" realizes an effective early detection system by combining six statistical procedures with a total of 11 separate methods. In case of detecting clusters and outbreaks it automatically generates warning reports to the responsible parties. All three modules together improve the epidemiological surveillance of the population in NRW, support the translation of information to prevention and control measures, and therefore strengthen epidemiological policy-making.     

传染病自动预警系统运行状况及预警效果评价

目的分析传染病自动预警系统在合肥市运行状况及其在传染病暴发探测中的作用,为完善传染病自动预警系统功能提供依据。方法以合肥市2008年5月1日-2013年4月30日期间传染病自动预警系统发出的预警信号数、法定传染病报告数、传染病暴发疫情及传染病类突发事件作为研究依据,以信号响应率、响应及时性评价运行状况,以预警及时性、灵敏度和突发事件阻断率评价预警效果。结果预警系统共发出预警信号8 958条,99.90%得到响应,92.57%在24h内有响应,响应及时性逐年提高。30起传染病暴发疫情中,预警系统探测到27起并发出预警,预警灵敏度90.00%。44.44%的暴发疫情及时预警。49条聚集性疫情预警信号中,39条未发展为突发事件,突发事件阻断率为79.59%。结论预警系统运行机制操作性强,预警信号响应良好,可初步实现传染病暴发的自动预警,但预警信号滞后,假阳性预警信号较多。     

Field-based evaluation of malaria outbreak detection and response in Mudzi and Goromonzi districts,Zimbabwe – 2017

ABSTRACT

National-level evaluations may fail to identify capacity improvements for detecting and responding to outbreaks which begin and are first detected at the local level. In response to this issue, we conducted a field-based assessment of the malaria outbreak surveillance system in Mashonaland East, Zimbabwe. We visited eleven clinics in Mudzi and Goromonzi districts. Twenty-one interviews were conducted with key informants from the provincial (n?=?2), district (n?=?7), and clinic (n?=?12) levels. Interviews focused on surveillance system activities, preparedness, data quality, timeliness, stability, and usefulness. Main themes were captured utilising standard qualitative data analysis techniques. While the surveillance system detects malaria outbreaks at all levels, we identified several gaps. Clinics experience barriers to timely and reliable reporting of outbreaks to the district level and staff cross-training. Stability of resources, including transportation (33% of informants, n?=?7) and staff capacity (48% of informants, n?=?10), presented barriers. Strengthening these surveillance barriers may improve staff readiness to detect malaria outbreaks, resulting in timelier outbreak response and a reduction in malaria outbreaks, cases, and deaths. By focusing at the local level, our assessment approach provides a framework for identifying and addressing gaps that may be overlooked when utilising tools that evaluate surveillance capacity at the national level.