On the bias of estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness from test–negative studies

Estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccines are commonly obtained from a test-negative design (TND) study, where cases and controls are patients seeking care for an acute respiratory illness who test positive and negative, respectively, for influenza infection. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates from TND studies are usually interpreted as vaccine effectiveness against medically-attended influenza (MAI). However, it is also important to estimate VE against any influenza illness (symptomatic influenza (SI)) as individuals with SI are still a public health burden even if they do not seek medical care. We present a numerical method to evaluate the bias of TND-based estimates of influenza VE with respect to MAI and SI. We consider two sources of bias: (a) confounding bias due to a (possibly unobserved) covariate that is associated with both vaccination and the probability of the outcome of interest and (b) bias resulting from the effect of vaccination on the probability of seeking care. Our results indicate that (a) VE estimates may suffer from substantial confounding bias when a confounder has a different effect on the probabilities of influenza and non-influenza ARI, and (b) when vaccination reduces the probability of seeking care against influenza ARI, then estimates of VE against MAI may be unbiased while estimates of VE against SI may be have a substantial positive bias.     

Sample size considerations for mid-season estimates from a large influenza vaccine effectiveness network in the United States

IntroductionMid-season influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates are a useful tool to help guide annual influenza vaccine strain selection, vaccine policy, and public health messaging. We propose using a sample size-driven approach with data-driven inputs for publication of mid-season influenza VE.MethodsWe used pooled inputs for VE by (sub)type and average vaccine coverage by age groups using data from eight seasons of the US Influenza VE Network to calculate sample sizes needed to estimate mid-season VE.ResultsWe estimate that 135 influenza-positive cases would be needed to detect an overall VE of 40% with 55% vaccine coverage among test-negative controls. Larger sample sizes would be required to produce reliable estimates specifically against influenza A/H3N2 and for older age groups.ConclusionUsing an existing network, most of the recent influenza seasons in the US would facilitate valid mid-season VE estimates using the proposed sample sizes for broad age groupings.     

Bias of influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates from test-negative studies conducted during an influenza pandemic

Test-negative (TN) studies have become the most widely used study design for the estimation of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) and are easily incorporated into existing influenza surveillance networks. We seek to determine the bias of TN-based VE estimates during a pandemic using a dynamic probability model. The model is used to evaluate and compare the bias of VE estimates under various sources of bias when vaccination occurs after the beginning of an outbreak, such as during a pandemic. The model includes two covariates (health status and health awareness), which may affect the probabilities of vaccination, developing influenza and non-influenza acute respiratory illness (ARI), and seeking medical care. Specifically, we evaluate the bias of VE estimates when (1) vaccination affects the probability of developing a non-influenza ARI; (2) vaccination affects the probability of seeking medical care; (3) a covariate (e.g. health status) is related to both the probabilities of vaccination and developing an ARI; and (4) a covariate (e.g. health awareness) is related to both the probabilities of vaccination and of seeking medical care. We considered two outcomes against which the vaccine is supposed to protect: symptomatic influenza and medically-attended influenza.When vaccination begins during an outbreak, we found that the effect of delayed onset of vaccination is unpredictable. VE estimates from TN studies were biased regardless of the source of bias present. However, if the core assumption of the TN design is satisfied, that is, if vaccination does not affect the probability of non-influenza ARI, then TN-based VE estimates against medically-attended influenza will only suffer from small (<0.05) to moderate bias (≥0.05 and <0.10). These results suggest that if sources of bias listed above are ruled out, TN studies are a valid study design for the estimation of VE during a pandemic.     

Inactivated influenza vaccine effectiveness and an analysis of repeated vaccination for children during the 2016/17 season

ObjectivesWe assessed the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) in children 6 months to 15 years of age during the 2016/17 season. In addition, we estimated the impact of repeated vaccination in children on VE.MethodsOur study for VEs in preventing influenza and admission due to influenza were conducted according to a test-negative case-control design (TNCC) based on influenza rapid diagnostic test results. We also analyzed the VE by vaccine status in the current and previous seasons for the impact of repeated vaccination.ResultsDuring the 2016/17 season, the quadrivalent IIV was used in Japan. The adjusted VE in preventing influenza illness was 38% (95% CI, 29–46) against influenza A and 39% (95% CI, 18–54) against influenza B. Infants showed no significant VE. The VE in preventing hospitalization was not demonstrated. For the analysis of repeated vaccination, the vaccine was effective only when immunization occurred in the current season. The children who were immunized in two consecutive seasons were more likely to develop influenza compared to those immunized in the current season only (odds ratio, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.05–2.38], adjusted odds ratio, 1.53 [95% CI, 0.99–2.35]). However, the odds ratio of repeated vaccination was not significant when the analysis excluded those who developed influenza in the previous season.ConclusionsVE in children in the 2016/17 season was similar to values previously reported. Repeated vaccination interfered with the VE against any influenza infection in the 2016/17 season. The results of our study suggest that decreased VE by repeat vaccination phenomenon was associated with immunity by influenza infection in the previous season. However, the influenza vaccine should be recommended every season for children.     

Estimation of the efficacy of live, attenuated influenza vaccine from a two-year, multi-center vaccine trial: implications for influenza epidemic control

The authors provide an analysis of data from a two-year (1996-1998), multicenter (ten US cities), double-blinded, placebo-controlled influenza vaccine trial in children. The vaccine was the trivalent cold-adapted influenza vaccine. Estimates are made of the vaccine efficacy for susceptibility to culture-confirmed influenza (VE(S)) while taking inter-center variability in the risk of infection into account. Our overall estimate of VE(S) against influenza is 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-0.94). In addition, for the second year, although the vaccine contained antigen for A/Wuhan-like (H3N2), the estimated VE(S) for epidemic variant A/Sydney-like (H3N2) was 0.89 (95% CI 0.81-0.94). Thus, the vaccine showed a high degree of protection against a variant not closely matched to the vaccine antigen. With regard to natural immunity, an influenza A infection in the first year reduces the estimated risk of an influenza A infection in the second year by a factor of 0.88 (95% CI 0.21-0.98). When comparing year 1 to year 2, there is a negative correlation of -0.50 in the center-specific attack rates in the placebo groups. This is consistent with the theory that natural immunity provides overall community protection to children. The authors argue that mass vaccination of 70% of the children with the cold-adapted influenza vaccine could provide substantial protection to the community at large.     

Assessment of influenza vaccine effectiveness in a sentinel surveillance network 2010–13, United States

BackgroundInfluenza vaccines are now widely used to reduce the burden of annual epidemics of influenza virus infections. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is monitored annually to determine VE against each season's circulating influenza strains in different groups such as children, adults and the elderly. Few prospective surveillance programs are available to evaluate influenza VE against medically attended illness for patients of all ages in the United States.MethodsWe conducted surveillance of patients with acute respiratory illnesses in 101 clinics across the US during three consecutive influenza seasons. We analyzed laboratory testing results for influenza virus, self-reported vaccine history, and patient characteristics, defining cases as patients who tested positive for influenza virus and controls as patients who tested negative for influenza virus. Comparison of influenza vaccination coverage among cases versus controls, adjusted for potential confounders, was used to estimate VE as one minus the adjusted odds ratio multiplied by 100%.ResultsWe included 10,650 patients during three influenza seasons from August 2010 through December 2013, and estimated influenza VE in children 6m–5y of age (58%; 95% CI: 49%–66%), children 6–17y (45%; 95% CI: 34%–53%), adults 18–49y (36%; 95% CI: 24%, 46%), and adults ≥50y (34%, 95% CI: 13%, 51%). VE was higher against influenza A(H1N1) compared to A(H3N2) and B.ConclusionsOur estimates of moderate influenza VE confirm the important role of vaccination in protecting against medically attended influenza virus infection.     

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-associated hospitalization in children: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Vaccination remains the most effective way to prevent influenza infection, albeit vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies by year. Compared to other age groups, children and elderly adults have the highest risk of developing influenza-related complications and requiring hospitalization. During the last years, “test negative design” (TND) studies have been implemented in order to estimate influenza VE. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to summarize the findings of TND studies reporting influenza VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalization in children aged 6 months to 17 years. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases and identified 2615 non-duplicate studies that required detailed review. Among them, 28 met our inclusion criteria and we performed a random-effects meta-analysis using adjusted VE estimates. In our primary analysis, influenza vaccine offered significant protection against any type influenza-related hospitalization (57.48%; 95% CI 49.46–65.49). When we examined influenza VE per type and strain, VE was higher against H1N1 (74.07%; 95% CI: 54.85–93.30) and influenza B (50.87%; 95% CI: 41.75–59.98), and moderate against H3N2 (40.77%; 95% CI: 25.65–55.89). Notably, influenza vaccination offered higher protection in children who were fully vaccinated (61.79%; 95% CI: 54.45–69.13), compared to those who were partially vaccinated (33.91%; 95% CI: 21.12 – 46.69). Also, influenza VE was high in children less than 5 years old (61.71%; 95% CI: 49.29–74.12) as well as in children 6–17 years old (54.37%; 95% CI: 35.14–73.60). In conclusion, in the pediatric population, influenza vaccination offered significant protection against influenza-related hospitalization and complete annual vaccination should be encouraged.     

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory confirmed influenza in Greece during the 2013–2014 season: A test-negative study

BackgroundIn 2013–2014 Greece experienced a resurgence of severe influenza cases, coincidental with a shift to H1N1pdm09 predominance. We sought to estimate Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) for this season using available surveillance data from hospitals (including both inpatients and outpatients).MethodsSwab samples were sent by hospital physicians to one of three laboratories, covering the entire country, to be tested for influenza using RT-PCR. The test-negative design was employed, with patients testing positive serving as cases and those testing negative serving as controls. VE was estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for age group, sex, region and calendar time, with further adjustment for unknown vaccination status using inverse response propensity weights. Additional age group stratified estimates and subgroup estimates of VE against H1N1pdm09 and H3N2 were calculated.ResultsOut of 1310 patients with known vaccination status, 124 (9.5%) were vaccinated, and 543 patients (41.5%) tested positive for influenza. Adjusted VE was 34.5% (95% CI: 4.1–55.3%) against any influenza, and 56.7% (95% CI: 22.8–75.7%) against H1N1pdm09. VE estimates appeared to be higher for people aged 60 and older, while in those under 60 there was limited evidence of effectiveness. Isolated circulating strains were genetically close to the vaccine strain, with limited evidence of antigenic drift.ConclusionsThese results suggest a moderate protective effect of the 2013–2014 influenza vaccine, mainly against H1N1pdm09 and in people aged 60 and over. Vaccine coverage was very low in Greece, even among groups targeted for vaccination, and substantial efforts should be made to improve it. VE can and should be routinely monitored, and the results taken into account when deciding on influenza vaccine composition for next season.     

Interim within-season estimate of the effectiveness of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine--Marshfield, Wisconsin, 2007-08 influenza season

During clinical trials, the efficacy of vaccination with inactivated influenza vaccines for the prevention of serologically confirmed influenza infection has been estimated as high as 70%-90% among healthier adults. However, the effectiveness of annual influenza vaccination typically is lower during those influenza seasons when a suboptimal match between the vaccine strains and circulating influenza strains is observed. For example, in a 4-year randomized study of influenza vaccine among healthy persons aged 1-65 years, the predominant strain was drifted from the vaccine strain in 2 of the 4 years. Inactivated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against culture-confirmed influenza ranged from 71% to 79% when the vaccine and circulating strains were suboptimally matched to 74% to 79% when the matches were well matched. In contrast, a 2-year study of inactivated influenza vaccine among healthy adults aged 18-64 years found no measurable VE during a year when a poorly matched strain circulated, but found VE of 86% against laboratory-confirmed influenza during the following year when the vaccine and circulating strains were well matched. Although laboratory data on the antigenic characteristics of circulating influenza viruses compared with vaccine strains are available during influenza seasons, estimates of VE usually have not been made until months after the conclusion of the season. This report summarizes interim results of a 2008 case-control study to estimate the effectiveness of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine for prevention of medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza during the 2007-08 influenza season, when most circulating influenza A (H3N2) and B viruses were suboptimally matched to the vaccine strains. Despite the suboptimal match between two of three vaccine strains and circulating influenza strains, overall VE in the study population during January 21-February 8, 2008, was 44%. These findings demonstrate that, in any season, assessment of the clinical effectiveness of influenza vaccines cannot be determined solely by laboratory evaluation of the degree of antigenic match between vaccine and circulation strains.     

Vaccine effectiveness for laboratory-confirmed influenza in children 6-59 months of age, 2005-2007

To estimate the effectiveness of influenza vaccine against medical care visits for laboratory-confirmed influenza in young children we conducted a matched case-control study in children with acute respiratory illness or fever from 2005-2007. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated using cases with laboratory-confirmed influenza and controls who tested negative for influenza. The effectiveness of influenza vaccine in fully vaccinated children 6-59 months of age was 56% (95% CI: 25%-74%); a significant VE was not found for partial vaccination.     

Impact of seasonal influenza vaccination in the presence of vaccine interference

BackgroundAnnual influenza vaccination is a key to preventing widespread influenza infections. Recent reports of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) indicate that vaccination in prior years may reduce VE in the current season, suggesting vaccine interference. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the potential effect of repeat influenza vaccinations in the presence of vaccine interference.MethodsUsing literature-based parameters, an age-structured influenza equation-based transmission model was used to determine the optimal vaccination strategy, while considering the effect of varying levels of interference.ResultsThe model shows that, even in the presence of vaccine interference, revaccination reduces the influenza attack rate and provides individual benefits. Specifically, annual vaccination is a favored strategy over vaccination in alternate years, as long as the level of residual protection is less than 58% or vaccine interference effect is minimal. Furthermore, the negative impact of vaccine interference may be offset by increased vaccine coverage levels.ConclusionsEven in the presence of potential vaccine interference, our work provides a population-level perspective on the potential merits of repeated influenza vaccination. This is because repeat vaccination groups had lower attack rates than groups that omitted the second vaccination unless vaccine interference was at very high, perhaps implausible, levels.     

2013-2014年度季节性流行性感冒疫苗对儿童保护效果的病例对照研究

目的 评价2013-2014年度季节性流行性感冒疫苗（流感疫苗）对6~59月龄儿童的保护效果。方法 选择2013-2014年度6~59月龄的实验室诊断流感病例为病例组,在广州市免疫规划系统中随机选择健康儿童为对照组,进行成组病例对照研究,采用非条件Logistic回归计算保护效果。结果 本研究共纳入2 690名研究对象。2013-2014年度,流感疫苗对6~59月龄儿童的保护效果为42.3%（95% CI：27.8%~53.8%）,对36~59月龄儿童的保护效果高于6~35月龄儿童,完全免疫的保护效果高于部分免疫,性别间保护效果无统计学差异。结论 流感疫苗对6~59月龄儿童具有中等保护效果,建议6~59月龄儿童每年接种流感疫苗。     

Influenza vaccine effectiveness among patients with high-risk medical conditions in the United States, 2012–2016

BackgroundAnnual influenza vaccination has been recommended for persons with high-risk conditions since the 1960s. However, few estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) for persons with high-risk conditions are available.MethodsData from the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network from 2012 to 2016 were analyzed to compare VE of standard-dose inactivated vaccines against medically-attended influenza among patients aged ≥6 months with and without high-risk medical conditions. Patients with acute respiratory illness were tested for influenza by RT-PCR. Presence of high-risk conditions and vaccination status were obtained from medical records. VE by influenza virus type/subtype and age group was calculated for patients with and without high-risk conditions using the test-negative design. Interaction terms were used to test for differences in VE by high-risk conditions.ResultsOverall, 9643 (38%) of 25,369 patients enrolled during four influenza seasons had high-risk conditions; 2213 (23%) tested positive for influenza infection. For all ages, VE against any influenza was lower among patients with high-risk conditions (41%, 95% CI: 35–47%) than those without (48%, 95% CI: 43–52%; P-for-interaction = 0.02). For children aged <18 years, VE against any influenza was 51% (95% CI: 39–61%) and 52% (95% CI: 39–61%) among those with and without high-risk conditions, respectively (P-for-interaction = 0.54). For adults aged ≥18 years, VE against any influenza was 38% (95% CI: 30–45%) and 44% (95% CI: 38–50%) among those with and without high-risk conditions, respectively (P-for-interaction = 0.21). For both children aged <18 and adults aged ≥18 years, VEs against illness related to influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09, and influenza B virus infection were similar among those with and without high-risk conditions.ConclusionsInfluenza vaccination provided protection against medically-attended influenza among patients with high-risk conditions, at levels approaching those observed among patients without high-risk conditions. Results from our analysis support recommendations of annual vaccination for patients with high-risk conditions.     

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in Italy: Age,subtype-specific and vaccine type estimates 2014/15 season

The 2014/15 influenza season in Europe was characterised by the circulation of influenza A(H3N2) viruses with an antigenic and genetic mismatch from the vaccine strain A/Texas/50/2012(H3N2) recommended for the Northern hemisphere for the 2014/15 season. Italy, differently from other EU countries where most of the subtyped influenza A viruses were H3N2, experienced a 2014/15 season characterized by an extended circulation of two influenza viruses: A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2), that both contributed substantially to morbidity.Within the context of the existing National sentinel influenza surveillance system (InfluNet) a test-negative case-control study was established in order to produce vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates. The point estimates VE were adjusted by age group (<5; 5–15; 15–64; 65+ years), the presence of at least one chronic condition, target group for vaccination and need help for walking or bathing. In Italy, adjusted estimates of the 2014/15 seasonal influenza VE against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as influenza for all age groups were 6.0% (95%CI: −36.5 to 35.2%), 43.6% (95%CI: −3.7 to 69.3%), −84.5% (95%CI: (−190.4 to −17.2%) and 50.7% (95% CI: −2.5 to 76.3%) against any influenza virus, A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B, respectively. These results suggest evidence of good VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 and B viruses in Italy and evidence of lack of VE against A(H3N2) virus due to antigenic and genetic mismatch between circulating A(H3N2) and the respective 2014/15 vaccine strain.     

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in preventing hospitalization among Beijing residents in China, 2013–15

BackgroundEstimates of influenza vaccination effectiveness (VE) are valuable for populations where the vaccine has been promoted in order to support vaccination policy and to permit evaluation of vaccination strategies. Such studies would be important for China due to limited data available during seasons when the vaccine strains matched or mismatched the circulating viruses.MethodsWe conducted a test-negative study in hospitals in Beijing. Patients admitted to five hospitals in the city were enrolled during the winter influenza seasons of 2013–14 and 2014–15. Influenza virus infections were determined by PCR, and influenza vaccination records were extracted from a centralized electronic immunization registry. Influenza VE was estimated by logistic regression adjusting for age group, sex and chronic conditions, and matched by calendar week.ResultsA total of 2368 inpatients were recruited during the study period with a vaccination coverage in the control group of 12.8%. The overall estimate of influenza VE was 46.9% (95% CI: −20.4%, 76.6%) for the 2013–14 season and 5.0% (95% CI: −53.0%, 41.0%) for the 2014–15 season. Estimates of VE were relatively higher in children aged 6–17 years than older persons across two influenza seasons while estimates of VE for both adults and elderly were relatively low.ConclusionsOur findings were consistent with expected influenza vaccination effectiveness in seasons when the vaccine matched or mismatched circulating viruses. Strategies to increase influenza vaccine coverage could provide a public health benefit.     

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-associated hospitalization in 2015/16 season,Beijing, China

BackgroundVaccination is recommended to prevent influenza virus infection and associated complications. This study aimed to estimate the influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against hospitalization in the 2015/16 season in Beijing.MethodsPatients who were hospitalized in the 5 study hospitals between 1 Oct 2015 and 15 May 2016 were recruited. Influenza vaccination status was obtained for PCR-confirmed influenza patients and the selected controls who tested negative for the virus. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the influenza VE matching by calendar week, and adjusting for age, study sites, underlying medical conditions, smoking status, and hospital admissions over the past 12 months.ResultsThe overall VE was −37.9% (95% CI: −103.3, 6.5) against laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization. The 2015–16 seasonal vaccine was had −61.9% (95% CI: −211.9, 15.9), −5.4% (95% CI: −108.1, 46.6) and −45.2% (95% CI: −152.6, 16.5) effectiveness to prevent infection from A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and influenza B, respectively.ConclusionsInfluenza vaccination did not show effective protection against hospitalization with influenza in 2015/16 season in Beijing.     

Can routinely collected laboratory and health administrative data be used to assess influenza vaccine effectiveness? Assessing the validity of the Flu and Other Respiratory Viruses Research (FOREVER) Cohort

BackgroundLinking data on laboratory specimens collected during clinical practice with health administrative data permits highly powered vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies to be conducted at relatively low cost, but bias from using convenience samples is a concern. We evaluated the validity of using such data for estimating VE.MethodsWe created the Flu and Other Respiratory Viruses Research (FOREVER) Cohort by linking individual-level data on respiratory virus laboratory tests, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and physician services. For community-dwelling adults aged > 65 years, we assessed the presence and magnitude of information and selection biases, generated VE estimates under various conditions, and compared our VE estimates with those from other studies.ResultsWe included 65,648 unique testing episodes obtained from 54,434 individuals during the 2010–11 to 2015–16 influenza seasons. To examine information bias, we found the proportion testing positive for influenza for patients with unknown interval from illness onset to specimen collection was more similar to patients for whom illness onset date was ≤ 7 days before specimen collection than to patients for whom illness onset was > 7 days before specimen collection. To assess the presence of selection bias, we found the likelihood of influenza testing was comparable between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, although the adjusted odds ratios were significantly greater than 1 for some healthcare settings and during some influenza seasons. Over 6 seasons, VE estimates ranged between 36% (95%CI, 27–44%) in 2010–11 and 5% (95%CI, –2, 11%) in 2014–15. VE estimates were similar under a range of conditions, but were consistently higher when accounting for misclassification of vaccination status through a quantitative sensitivity analysis. VE estimates from the FOREVER Cohort were comparable to those from other studies.ConclusionsRoutinely collected laboratory and health administrative data contained in the FOREVER Cohort can be used to estimate influenza VE in community-dwelling older adults.     

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza in a vaccine-mismatched influenza B-dominant season

BackgroundThe 2017–2018 influenza season in Israel was characterized by the predominance of influenza B Yamagata, with a lesser circulation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza A(H3N2). We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the inactivated influenza vaccine which was selected for use that season.MethodsEnd-of-season VE and 95% confidence intervals (CI) against laboratory-confirmed influenza-like illness (ILI) were estimated by means of the test-negative design. Age-specific VE analysis was carried out using a moving age interval.ResultsSpecimen were obtained from 1,453 community ILI patients; 610 (42.0%) were influenza-positive, among which 69.7% were B, 17.2% A(H1N1)pdm09 and 13.4% A(H3N2). A 98.6% of molecularly characterized influenza B belonged to the Yamagata lineage. Of the sampled individuals, 1320 were suitable for VE analysis. Of those vaccinated, 90.6% received the inactivated trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) containing a Victoria lineage influenza B-like virus. VE against influenza A differed by age, with the highest VE of 72.9% (95%CI 31.9–89.2%) observed in children 0.5–14 years old, while all ages VE was 46.6% (95%CI 10.4–68.2%). All ages VE against influenza B was 23.2% (95%CI −10.1–46.4%) with age-specific analysis showing non-significant VE estimates. Utilizing a moving age interval of 15 years, afforded a detailed age-specific insight into influenza VE against the influenza viruses circulating during the 2017–2018 season.ConclusionsThe moderate-high 2017–2018 influenza A VE among children and adolescents, supports seasonal influenza vaccination at a young age. The low VE against influenza B in Israel, is most likely the result of influenza B/TIV-mismatch.     

Comparison of local influenza vaccine effectiveness using two methods

BackgroundIn some settings, research methods to determine influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) may not be appropriate because of cost, time constraints, or other factors. Administrative database analysis of viral testing results and vaccination history may be a viable alternative. This study compared VE estimates from outpatient research and administrative databases.MethodsUsing the test-negative, case-control design, data for 2017–2018 and 2018–2019 influenza seasons were collected using: 1) consent, specimen collection, RT-PCR testing and vaccine verification using multiple methods; and 2) an administrative database of outpatients with a clinical respiratory viral panel combined with electronic immunization records. Odds ratios for likelihood of influenza infection by vaccination status were calculated using multivariable logistic regression. VE = (1 ? aOR) × 100.ResultsResearch participants were significantly younger (P < 0.001), more often white (69% vs. 59%; P < 0.001) than non-white and less frequently enrolled through the emergency department (35% vs. 72%; P < 0.001) than administrative database participants. VE was significant against all influenza and influenza A in each season and both seasons combined (37–49%). Point estimate differences between methods were evident, with higher VE in the research database, but insignificant due to low sample sizes. When enrollment sites were separately analyzed, there were significant differences in VE estimates for all influenza (66% research vs. 46% administrative P < 0.001) and influenza A (67% research vs. 49% administrative; P < 0.001) in the emergency department.Conclusions:The selection of the appropriate method for determining influenza vaccine effectiveness depends on many factors, including sample size, subgroups of interest, etc., suggesting that research estimates may be more generalizable. Other advantages of research databases for VE estimates include lack of clinician-related selection bias for testing and less misclassification of vaccination status. The advantages of the administrative databases are potentially shorter time to VE results and lower cost.     

Evaluation of the 2018–2019 vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza-like illness using medical records and claims data

BackgroundHealthcare administrative databases are a rich source of information that could be leveraged to estimate real-world influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). We aimed to evaluate the VE of standard egg-based influenza vaccines and determine if administrative healthcare data provide accurate VE estimates compared to the US CDC data.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study was conducted during the 2018–2019 influenza season. Individuals who had at least one relevant record per year between 2015 and 2019 in their electronic medical record were included. Individuals were considered protected 14 days after receiving an influenza vaccine. The outcome was the occurrence of medically attended influenza-like illness (MA-ILI) defined by clinical diagnostic codes. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were derived from multivariate logistic regression and adjusted VE (aVEs) were calculated using 100 × (1-aORs).ResultsA total of 5,066,980 individuals were included in the analysis with 1,307,702 (25.8%) considered vaccinated. Overall, the median age was 54 (IQR, 32–66) and 58.1% were female. Vaccine protection against MA-ILI was moderate in children and low in adults. All estimates were lower than VEs reported by the CDC for the 2018–2019 influenza season. Our results were robust to potential loss to follow up, but misclassification bias and residual confounding led to underestimation of the 2018–2019 aVE. When stratified by the number of primary care visits, aVE estimates and vaccination coverage increased with the number of primary care visits, reaching estimates similar to those obtained by the US CDC and US national vaccination coverage among those with ≥ 6 primary care visits, resulting in significant positive vaccine protection in frequent healthcare users.ConclusionsModerate and low aVEs were observed during the 2018–2019 season using administrative healthcare data, which was likely due to detection and misclassification biases, correlated with healthcare seeking behaviour, leading to an underestimation of the 2018–2019 influenza VE.