Very early warning of next El Ni?o

The most important driver of climate variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which can trigger disasters in various parts of the globe. Despite its importance, conventional forecasting is still limited to 6 mo ahead. Recently, we developed an approach based on network analysis, which allows projection of an El Niño event about 1 y ahead. Here we show that our method correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012 and 2013 and now announce that our approach indicated (in September 2013 already) the return of El Niño in late 2014 with a 3-in-4 likelihood. We also discuss the relevance of the next El Niño to the question of global warming and the present hiatus in the global mean surface temperature.     

Assessment of Climate-sensitive Infectious Diseases in the Federated States of Micronesia

Background: The health impacts of climate change are an issue of growing concern in the Pacific region. Prior to 2010, no formal, structured, evidence-based approach had been used to identify the most significant health risks posed by climate change in Pacific island countries. During 2010 and 2011, the World Health Organization supported the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) in performing a climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessment. This paper summarizes the priority climate-sensitive health risks in FSM, with a focus on diarrheal disease, its link with climatic variables and the implications of climate change. Methods: The vulnerability and adaptation assessment process included a review of the literature, extensive stakeholder consultations, ranking of climate-sensitive health risks, and analysis of the available long-term data on climate and climate-sensitive infectious diseases in FSM, which involved examination of health information data from the four state hospitals in FSM between 2000 and 2010; along with each state’s rainfall, temperature and El Niño-Southern Oscillation data. Generalized linear Poisson regression models were used to demonstrate associations between monthly climate variables and cases of climate-sensitive diseases at differing temporal lags. Results: Infectious diseases were among the highest priority climate-sensitive health risks identified in FSM, particularly diarrheal diseases, vector-borne diseases and leptospirosis. Correlation with climate data demonstrated significant associations between monthly maximum temperature and monthly outpatient cases of diarrheal disease in Pohnpei and Kosrae at a lag of one month and 0 to 3 months, respectively; no such associations were observed in Chuuk or Yap. Significant correlations between disease incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycles were demonstrated in Kosrae state. Conclusions: Analysis of the available data demonstrated significant associations between climate variables and climate-sensitive infectious diseases. This information should prove useful in implementing health system and community adaptation strategies to avoid the most serious impacts of climate change on health in FSM.     

Tropical cloud forest climate variability and the demise of the Monteverde golden toad

Widespread amphibian extinctions in the mountains of the American tropics have been blamed on the interaction of anthropogenic climate change and a lethal pathogen. However, limited meteorological records make it difficult to conclude whether current climate conditions at these sites are actually exceptional in the context of natural variability. We use stable oxygen isotope measurements from trees without annual rings to reconstruct a century of hydroclimatology in the Monteverde Cloud Forest of Costa Rica. High-resolution measurements reveal coherent isotope cycles that provide annual chronological control and paleoclimate information. Climate variability is dominated by interannual variance in dry season moisture associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation events. There is no evidence of a trend associated with global warming. Rather, the extinction of the Monteverde golden toad (Bufo periglenes) appears to have coincided with an exceptionally dry interval caused by the 1986–1987 El Niño event.     

Climate Anomalies and Spillover of Bat-Borne Viral Diseases in the Asia–Pacific Region and the Arabian Peninsula

Climate variability and anomalies are known drivers of the emergence and outbreaks of infectious diseases. In this study, we investigated the potential association between climate factors and anomalies, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and land surface temperature anomalies, as well as the emergence and spillover events of bat-borne viral diseases in humans and livestock in the Asia–Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula. Our findings from time series analyses, logistic regression models, and structural equation modelling revealed that the spillover patterns of the Nipah virus in Bangladesh and the Hendra virus in Australia were differently impacted by climate variability and with different time lags. We also used event coincidence analysis to show that the emergence events of most bat-borne viral diseases in the Asia–Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula were statistically associated with ENSO climate anomalies. Spillover patterns of the Nipah virus in Bangladesh and the Hendra virus in Australia were also significantly associated with these events, although the pattern and co-influence of other climate factors differed. Our results suggest that climate factors and anomalies may create opportunities for virus spillover from bats to livestock and humans. Ongoing climate change and the future intensification of El Niño events will therefore potentially increase the emergence and spillover of bat-borne viral diseases in the Asia–Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula.     

Climate and Non-Climate Drivers of Dengue Epidemics in Southern Coastal Ecuador

We report a statistical mixed model for assessing the importance of climate and non-climate drivers of interannual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Local climate data and Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index [ONI]) were used to predict dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs; 1995–2010). Unobserved confounding factors were accounted for using non-structured yearly random effects. We found that ONI, rainfall, and minimum temperature were positively associated with dengue, with more cases of dengue during El Niño events. We assessed the influence of non-climatic factors on dengue SMR using a subset of data (2001–2010) and found that the percent of households with Aedes aegypti immatures was also a significant predictor. Our results indicate that monitoring the climate and non-climate drivers identified in this study could provide some predictive lead for forecasting dengue epidemics, showing the potential to develop a dengue early-warning system in this region.     

Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak

El Niño/Southern Oscillation related climate anomalies were analyzed by using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea-surface temperatures and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective prediction of a RVF outbreak.     

The Indian Ocean Dipole and malaria risk in the highlands of western Kenya

Epidemics of malaria in the East African highlands in the last 2 decades have often been associated with climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, there are other factors associated with malaria risk and there is increased interest in the influences of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate mode of coupled ocean–atmosphere variability, on East African rainfall. This study explores the relationship between IOD and the number of malaria patients in 7 hospitals from 2 districts in the western Kenyan highlands, controlling for the effects of ENSO. We examined temporal patterns (1982–2001) in the number of malaria cases in relation to the dipole mode index (DMI), defined as the difference in sea surface temperature anomaly between the western (10°S-10°N, 50°-70°E) and eastern (10°S-0°, 90°-110°E) tropical Indian Ocean. We used Poisson regression models, adjusted for ENSO index Niño 3 region (NINO3), seasonal and interannual variations. The number of malaria patients per month increased by 3.4%–17.9% for each 0.1 increase above a DMI threshold (3–4 months lag). Malaria cases increased by 1.4%–10.7% per month, for each 10 mm increase in monthly rainfall (2–3 months lag). In 6 of 7 places, there was no evidence of an association between NINO3 and the number of malaria cases after adjusting for the effect of DMI. This study suggests that the number of malaria cases in the western Kenyan highlands increases with high DMI in the months preceding hospital visits.     

Interannual Variability of Human Plague Occurrence in the Western United States Explained by Tropical and North Pacific Ocean Climate Variability

Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950–2005). We found that El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors. It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents.     

Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease

The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.     

Impact of climate variability in the occurrence of leishmaniasis in northeastern Colombia

Previous studies have shown that variation in the distribution of vectors associated to the transmission of Leishmania species may be related to climatic changes. However, the potential implications of these ecological changes in human health need to be further defined in various endemic populations where leishmaniasis carries a substantial burden of disease such as in Northeastern Colombia. Herein, we report the impact of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation climatic fluctuations during 1985-2002 in the occurrence of cases of leishmaniasis in two northeastern provinces of Colombia. During this period, we identified that during El Ni?o, cases of leishmaniasis increased, whereas during La Ni?a phases, leishmaniasis cases decreased. This preliminary data show how climatic changes influence the occurrence of leishmaniasis in northeastern Colombia and contributes to the growing body of evidence that shows that the incidence of vector-borne diseases is associated with annual changes in weather conditions.     

Drought variability in the Pacific Northwest from a 6,000-yr lake sediment record

We present a 6,000-yr record of changing water balance in the Pacific Northwest inferred from measurements of carbonate δ¹⁸O and grayscale on a sediment core collected from Castor Lake, Washington. This subdecadally resolved drought record tracks the 1,500-yr tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstructions of Cook et al. [Cook ER, Woodhouse CA, Eakin CM, Meko DM, Stahle DW (2004) Science 306:1015–1018] in the Pacific Northwest and extends our knowledge back to 6,000 yr B.P. The results demonstrate that low-frequency drought/pluvial cycles, with occasional long-duration, multidecadal events, are a persistent feature of regional climate. Furthermore, the average duration of multidecadal wet/dry cycles has increased since the middle Holocene, which has acted to increase the amplitude and impact of these events. This is especially apparent during the last 1,000 yr. We suggest these transitions were driven by changes in the tropical and extratropical Pacific and are related to apparent intensification of the El Niño Southern Oscillation over this interval and its related effects on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The Castor Lake record also corroborates the notion that the 20th century, prior to recent aridity, was a relatively wet period compared to the last 6,000 yr. Our findings suggest that the hydroclimate response in the Pacific Northwest to future warming will be intimately tied to the impact of warming on the El Niño Southern Oscillation.     

Brief Report: Warming-induced tipping points of Arctic and alpine shrub recruitment

Shrub recruitment, a key component of vegetation dynamics beyond forests, is a highly sensitive indicator of climate and environmental change. Warming-induced tipping points in Arctic and alpine treeless ecosystems are, however, little understood. Here, we compare two long-term recruitment datasets of 2,770 shrubs from coastal East Greenland and from the Tibetan Plateau against atmospheric circulation patterns between 1871 and 2010 Common Era. Increasing rates of shrub recruitment since 1871 reached critical tipping points in the 1930s and 1960s on the Tibetan Plateau and in East Greenland, respectively. A recent decline in shrub recruitment in both datasets was likely related to warmer and drier climates, with a stronger May to July El Niño Southern Oscillation over the Tibetan Plateau and a stronger June to July Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation over Greenland. Exceeding the thermal optimum of shrub recruitment, the recent warming trend may cause soil moisture deficit. Our findings suggest that changes in atmospheric circulation explain regional climate dynamics and associated response patterns in Arctic and alpine shrub communities, knowledge that should be considered to protect vulnerable high-elevation and high-latitude ecosystems from the cascading effects of anthropogenic warming.     

Exceptionally strong easterly wind burst stalling El Ni?o of 2014

Intraseasonal wind bursts in the tropical Pacific are believed to affect the evolution and diversity of El Niño events. In particular, the occurrence of two strong westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in early 2014 apparently pushed the ocean–atmosphere system toward a moderate to strong El Niño—potentially an extreme event according to some climate models. However, the event’s progression quickly stalled, and the warming remained very weak throughout the year. Here, we find that the occurrence of an unusually strong basin-wide easterly wind burst (EWB) in June was a key factor that impeded the El Niño development. It was shortly after this EWB that all major Niño indices fell rapidly to near-normal values; a modest growth resumed only later in the year. The easterly burst and the weakness of subsequent WWBs resulted in the persistence of two separate warming centers in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, suppressing the positive Bjerknes feedback critical for El Niño. Experiments with a climate model with superimposed wind bursts support these conclusions, pointing to inherent limits in El Niño predictability. Furthermore, we show that the spatial structure of the easterly burst matches that of the observed decadal trend in wind stress in the tropical Pacific, suggesting potential links between intraseasonal wind bursts and decadal climate variations.El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is characterized by anomalously warm water appearing in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific every 2–7 years, driven by tropical ocean–atmosphere interactions with far-reaching global impacts (recent reviews are in refs. 1–3). These interactions and El Niño development involve several important feedbacks, including the positive Bjerknes feedback [zonal wind relaxation leads to the reduction of the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient and further wind relaxation] (4). Since the year 2000, there has been a shift in the observed properties of El Niño, including its magnitude, frequency, and spatial structure of temperature anomalies (5, 6). For example, El Niño events occurred more frequently than during the previous two decades, but all were weak, and none reached the extreme magnitude of the 1982 and 1997 events. Concurrently, the rise of global mean surface temperature has slowed down with the so-called global warming hiatus (7–9). The stalled development of the 2014 El Niño presents a showcase to explore the relevant connection and mechanisms of these changes.At the beginning of 2014, many in the scientific community anticipated that a moderate to strong El Niño could develop by the end of the year (10–14) (Fig. S1). In March, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced an “El Niño watch” based on predictions made by dynamical and statistical models (12), attracting attention of the general public. Admittedly, these predictions encompassed large uncertainties because of the stochastic nature of the tropical climate system (15–17). In May, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) suggested that 2014 could potentially rival the strongest on-record event of 1997/19998 (Fig. 1B), while acknowledging the large existing uncertainty (14); their projection was supported by satellite observations of strong Kelvin waves evident in sea surface height (SSH) (Fig. 2C). The spread of spring forecast plumes from some climate models, for example that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), included the possibility of a failed El Niño (Fig. S1) but only as a low-probability outcome involving unusual instances of weather noise. The observed development fell near the limit of these forecast possibilities after June and July, and eventually, the 2014 warm event barely qualified as El Niño (Fig. 1A).Open in a separate windowFig. 1.El Niño development in (A and C) 2014 and (B and D) 1997. (A and B) Evolution of the Niño3, Niño4, and Niño3.4 indices; the first two indices describe SST anomalies (in degrees Celsius) in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, respectively, whereas the last index covers the region in between. (C and D) Variation in the zonal wind stress indices. These indices are obtained by averaging wind stress anomalies (in 10⁻² newtons per meter²) in the equatorial Pacific zonally and between 5 °S and 5 °N and then selecting negative (blue; easterly anomalies), positive (red; westerly anomalies), or full values (black) (Materials and Methods). The spatial averaging is intended to take into account both the magnitude and the fetch of the wind bursts. During 2014, two early year WWBs were followed by an exceptional EWB in June (highlighted by pink and blue, respectively). This easterly burst apparently led to a rapid decrease of the Niño indices (A). In contrast, the 1997 El Niño exhibited persistent westerly wind activity throughout the year. The graphs start on January 1.Open in a separate windowFig. 2.Spatiotemporal evolution of the 2014 El Niño. (A–D) Hovmöller diagrams for anomalies in (A) SST, (B) zonal wind stress, (C) SSH, and (D) surface zonal currents in the equatorial Pacific. Time goes downward. The SSH and surface velocity plots highlight the eastward propagating downwelling Kelvin waves, especially pronounced early in the year, and a strong upwelling Kelvin wave midyear. (E and F) El Niño development in 2014 (black line) compared with several historical (E) EP and (F) CP events. The diagrams show the position of the Warm Pool Eastern Edge (degrees of longitude) vs. the Niño3 SST (degrees Celsius) for different months of the year. The Warm Pool Eastern Edge is defined as the position of the 29 °C isotherm at the equator. Numbers indicate monthly averages (1, January; 2, February, etc.). The light vertical line marks the Dateline. In 2014, both the warm pool displacement and Niño3 SST anomalies were exceptionally large during May (month 5), were similar to those in 1997 and 1982 (the strongest events of the 20th century), and then, rapidly decreased by August (month 8).Open in a separate windowFig. S1.The El Niño spring forecasts of the Niño3.4 index from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Red lines show 50 ensemble members of the forecast plume initiated in March of 2014; the black dotted line indicates the observed Niño3.4 index. The observed development fell outside the forecast plume in June and July and remained beyond the typical forecast spread after that. Adapted from ref. 13.The question then arises as to which dynamic factors controlled the temporal and spatial development in the tropical Pacific in 2014. This warm event began with a rapid growth, such that, in early June, all major Niño indices (Materials and Methods) along the equator were nearly identical to those during the same time of 1997 (Fig. 1 A and B). A substantial warming also developed along the Peruvian coast (Fig. 3A). Then, the event’s progression slowed down or even reversed. By year end, the equatorial warming barely exceeded 1 °C, but the SST anomaly stretched uncharacteristically across the entire equatorial Pacific almost uniformly (Figs. 1A and ​and2A).2A). Accordingly, the major goal of this study is to investigate this unusual development, identify the main factors that impeded this event, and explore its broad implications.Open in a separate windowFig. 3.The June of 2014 EWB in satellite-based data. (A) The spatial structure of anomalies in surface winds (vectors; in meters per second) and SST (colors; in degrees Celsius) on June 12, 2014, when the burst was strongest. (B) Daily vs. weekly mean values of the zonal wind stress index (10⁻² newtons per meter²) for the period 1988–2014. The blue cross marks the peak value of the June of 2014 EWB. The wind stress index is defined as anomalous zonal wind stress averaged in the equatorial Pacific zonally and between 5 °S and 5 °N (Materials and Methods). Black circles are for the year 2014, red circles are for all El Niño years before 2014, and gray circles are for all other years (La Niña or neutral). Note that the June of 2014 EWB appears strongest in the satellite record for not only daily data but also, weekly averaged values, which confirms that the observations are robust.     

Derivation of burn scar depths and estimation of carbon emissions with LIDAR in Indonesian peatlands

During the 1997/98 El Niño-induced drought peatland fires in Indonesia may have released 13–40% of the mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels. One major unknown in current peatland emission estimations is how much peat is combusted by fire. Using a light detection and ranging data set acquired in Central Kalimantan, Borneo, in 2007, one year after the severe peatland fires of 2006, we determined an average burn scar depth of 0.33 ± 0.18 m. Based on this result and the burned area determined from satellite imagery, we estimate that within the 2.79 million hectare study area 49.15 ± 26.81 megatons of carbon were released during the 2006 El Niño episode. This represents 10–33% of all carbon emissions from transport for the European Community in the year 2006. These emissions, originating from a comparatively small area (approximately 13% of the Indonesian peatland area), underline the importance of peat fires in the context of green house gas emissions and global warming. In the past decade severe peat fires occurred during El Niño-induced droughts in 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009. Currently, this important source of carbon emissions is not included in IPCC carbon accounting or in regional and global carbon emission models. Precise spatial measurements of peat combusted and potential avoided emissions in tropical peat swamp forests will also be required for future emission trading schemes in the framework of Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in developing countries.     

Galápagos hydroclimate of the Common Era from paired microalgal and mangrove biomarker 2H/1H values

Tropical maritime precipitation affects global atmospheric circulation, influencing storm tracks and the size and location of subtropical deserts. Paleoclimate evidence suggests centuries-long changes in rainfall in the tropical Pacific over the past 2,000 y, but these remain poorly characterized across most of the ocean where long, continuous proxy records capable of resolving decadal-to-centennial climate changes are still virtually nonexistent despite substantial efforts to develop them. Here we apply a new climate proxy based on paired hydrogen isotope ratios from microalgal and mangrove-derived sedimentary lipids in the Galápagos to reconstruct maritime precipitation changes during the Common Era. We show that increased rainfall during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (∼1400–1850 CE) was likely caused by a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and that this shift occurred later than previously recognized, coeval with dynamically linked precipitation changes in South America and the western tropical Pacific. Before the LIA, we show that drier conditions at the onset of the Medieval Warm Period (∼800–1300 CE) and wetter conditions ca. 2 ka were caused by changes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Collectively, the large natural variations in tropical rainfall we detect, each linked to a multicentury perturbation of either ENSO-like variability or the ITCZ, imply a high sensitivity of tropical Pacific rainfall to climate forcings.Tropical Pacific precipitation patterns have a profound impact on global climate, and changes are projected far outside the region of origin (1). Coherent understanding of these climate dynamics is therefore critical for understanding when and how the distribution and intensity of global precipitation patterns have changed in the past and will change in the future, with far-reaching implications for managing the demand for freshwater resources in major population and agricultural centers in the tropics and midlatitudes. Tropical Pacific precipitation is largely dominated by zonally asymmetric variability associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the zonally symmetric annual north–south migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The extensive geographic footprint and intensity of these phenomena suggests that capturing their evolution in the paleoclimate record and within Earth system models should be straightforward, but in practice these targets have proven elusive. Perennial problems persist in simulating realistic ITCZ and ENSO dynamics, even in the latest generation of state-of-the-art climate models (2, 3). Paleoclimate records should theoretically be able to help constrain some of these dynamics, but it is challenging to distinguish between ITCZ- and ENSO-driven changes in a record from a single location because rainfall alone is influenced by both phenomena (4–8). Networks of paleoclimate records can help to resolve these issues, but proxy archives that are within the core ITCZ and ENSO regions (i.e., at sea level in the tropical Pacific) and have both the temporal resolution and duration to record the decadal to centennial changes that are of greatest societal relevance have been difficult to obtain.The Galápagos archipelago in the eastern equatorial Pacific is in a key center of action for ENSO and is ideally located for testing hypotheses regarding changes in the southern extent of annual ITCZ migration (7, 9). Precipitation is highly variable on seasonal and interannual timescales and correlated with the Niño 1–4 indices (Fig. 1 and Fig. S1) as well as with the multivariate ENSO index, local sea surface temperature, and the isotopic composition of precipitation (4, 5, 10). El Niño events bring heavy rain to the Galápagos, and changes in their intensity or recurrence interval manifest in the local precipitation record, but with increased sensitivity to eastern Pacific, as opposed to central Pacific, El Niño events (Fig. S1) (4). The islands are at the modern southernmost extent of annual ITCZ migration, and changes in its maximum southerly range bring large increases in annual rainfall (Fig. 1).Open in a separate windowFig. 1.Precipitation data and base map for Isabela lakes. (A) Average wet- (February–April) and (B) dry-season (August–October) precipitation (1997–2008; NASA GPCP). Locations: Galápagos (star), Cariaco Basin (diamond), Lake Pumacocha (square), Makassar Straight (circle). (C) Niño1+2 precipitation anomaly shows influence of eastern Pacific El Niño and La Niña events on Galápagos precipitation. Anomalies in figure are the difference between years where Niño 1+2 > 1 °C and years where Niño 1+2 < 1 °C (dataset from A and B). Comparison between Niño 1+2 and Niño 3.4 is shown in Fig. S1. (D) Map shows locations of Isabela Island lakes within the Galápagos archipelago (Map data: Google, DigitalGlobe) and coring locations in each lake (Diablas, red; Verdes, green; Escondida, blue). Bnb, Bainbridge Crater; EJ, El Junco Lake; Is, Isabela lakes.Open in a separate windowFig. S1.Comparison between Niño 1+2 and Niño 3.4 precipitation anomalies. (A) Niño 1+2 precipitation anomaly as shown in Fig. 1C, or the difference between years where Niño 1+2 > 1 °C and years where Niño 1+2 < 1 °C (dataset from Fig. 1 A and B). (B) As in A, but for Niño 3.4 index. Differences highlight the enhanced sensitivity of the Galápagos to eastern Pacific El Niño events but also demonstrate that the region is sensitive to ENSO activity as defined by both indices.The δ²H value of tropical precipitation as it falls and is temporarily sequestered in lakes (δ²H_Water) reflects its transport history, making δ²H_Water values an excellent hydroclimate proxy (11). Photoautotrophic organisms use hydrogen from these waters to synthesize lipids, transforming δ²H_Water values into lipid δ²H values (δ²H_Lipid) that are preserved in sediments over geologic time. However, δ²H_Lipid values are offset from δ²H_Water values by isotopic fractionation that occurs during biosynthesis and that varies by organism, and in response to environmental conditions such as salinity (12). This complicates efforts to apply δ²H_Lipid values as paleoclimate proxies in coastal sediments where salinity varies over time and common biomarkers are synthesized by a wide variety of organisms. Mangrove trees and cyanobacteria living in these locations access common source water, but salinity has an opposing effect on ²H/¹H fractionation expressed in their lipids (13–15). In phytoplankton ²H/¹H fractionation decreases by 0.7–2.0‰ per unit increase in salinity (14, 15), whereas in mangroves it increases by 0.7–1.7‰ (13, 16). Combining these calibrations with measured algal and mangrove δ²H_Lipid values provides a method to simultaneously and quantitatively reconstruct salinity and δ²H_Water values. This approach circumvents shortcomings that have previously hindered even qualitative application of δ²H_Lipid values in these environments and opens the door for widespread application of this technique in the high-accumulation-rate saline coastal lakes that are common in the tropics. This newly developed paired biomarker approach was applied to sediments collected from three coastal saline ponds on Isabela Island in the Galápagos archipelago (Fig. 1) to reconstruct salinity and δ²H_Water values spanning the past 2,000 y of the Common Era.     

Divergent ecological effects of oceanographic anomalies on terrestrial ecosystems of the Mexican Pacific coast

Precipitation pulses are essential for the regeneration of drylands and have been shown to be related to oceanographic anomalies. However, whereas some studies report increased precipitation in drylands in northern Mexico during El Ni?o years, others report increased drought in the southern drylands. To elucidate the effect of oceanographic/atmospheric anomalies on moisture pulses along the whole Pacific coast of Mexico, we correlated the average Southern Oscillation Index values with total annual precipitation for 117 weather stations. We also analyzed this relationship for three separate rainfall signals: winter-spring, summer monsoon, and fall precipitation. The results showed a distinct but divergent seasonal pattern: El Ni?o events tend to bring increased rainfall in the Mexican northwest but tend to increase aridity in the ecosystems of the southern tropical Pacific slope. The analysis for the separated rainfall seasons showed that El Ni?o conditions produce a marked increase in winter rainfall above 22 degrees latitude, whereas La Ni?a conditions tend to produce an increase in the summer monsoon-type rainfall that predominates in the tropical south. Because these dryland ecosystems are dependent on rainfall pulses for their renewal, understanding the complex effect of ocean conditions may be critical for their management in the future. Restoration ecology, grazing regimes, carrying capacities, fire risks, and continental runoff into the oceans could be predicted from oceanographic conditions. Monitoring the coupled atmosphere-ocean system may prove to be important in managing and mitigating the effects of large-scale climatic change on coastal drylands in the future.     

Strong influence of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability on Earth (1) and influences climate over large parts of the Earth’s surface. In turn, ENSO is known to strongly influence many physical processes and societal risks, including droughts, food production, hurricane damage, and tropical tree cover (2–4). For decision makers it is essential to have information on the possible impacts of this climate variability on society. Such information can be particularly useful when the climate variability can be anticipated in advance, thus allowing for early warning and disaster planning (5). For example, projections carried out in September 2013 already suggested a 75% likelihood that El Niño conditions would develop in late 2014 (6). According to the ENSO forecast of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS, dated 9 October 2014, observed ENSO conditions did indeed move to those of a borderline El Niño during September and October 2014, with indications of weak El Niño conditions during the northern hemisphere winter 2014–2015 (iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/).However, to date little is known on ENSO’s influence on flood risk, whereby risk is defined as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability (7) and is expressed in terms of socioeconomic indicators such as economic damage or affected people. Although global-scale flood-risk assessments have recently become a hot topic in both the scientific and policy communities, assessments to date have focused on current risks (7–11) or future risks under long-term mean climate change (12, 13). Meanwhile, other recent research suggests that ENSO-related variations of precipitation are likely to intensify in the future (14, 15) and that extreme El Niño events may increase in frequency (16). Hence, an understanding of ENSO’s influence on flood risk is vital in understanding both the possible impacts of upcoming ENSO events as well as planning for the potential socioeconomic impacts of changes in future ENSO frequency.In this paper, we show for the first time to our knowledge that ENSO has a very strong influence on flood risk in large parts of the world. These findings build on previous studies, especially in Australia and the United States, which show that ENSO and other forms of climate variability are strongly related to flood hazard in some regions (17–25). To do this, we developed a modeling framework to specifically assess ENSO’s influence on global flood risk. The modeling framework involves using a cascade of hydrological, hydraulic, and impact models (10, 11). Using this model cascade, we assessed flood impacts in terms of three indicators: (i) exposed population, (ii) exposed gross domestic product (GDP), and (iii) urban damage (Materials and Methods). A novel aspect of the framework is that we are able to calculate flood risk conditioned on the climatology of all years, El Niño years only, and La Niña years only. This allows us, for the first time to our knowledge, to simulate the impacts of ENSO on flood risk. The hydrological and impact models have previously been validated for the period 1958–2000 (11). Here, we carried out further validation to assess the specific ability of the model cascade to simulate year-to-year fluctuations in peak river flows and flood impacts and anomalies in peak flows and impacts during El Niño and La Niña years (SI Discussion, Validation of Hydrological and Hydraulic Models).     

Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change,temperatures, and precipitation across the United States

Changes in climate during the 20th century differ from region to region across the United States. We provide strong evidence that spatial variations in US temperature trends are linked to the hydrologic cycle, and we also present unique information on the seasonal and latitudinal structure of the linkage. We show that there is a statistically significant inverse relationship between trends in daily temperature and average daily precipitation across regions. This linkage is most pronounced in the southern United States (30–40°N) during the May-June time period and, to a lesser extent, in the northern United States (40–50°N) during the July-August time period. It is strongest in trends in maximum temperatures (T_max) and 90th percentile exceedance trends (90PET), and less pronounced in the T_max 10PET and the corresponding T_min statistics, and it is robust to changes in analysis period. Although previous studies suggest that areas of increased precipitation may have reduced trends in temperature compared with drier regions, a change in sign from positive to negative trends suggests some additional cause. We show that trends in precipitation may account for some, but not likely all, of the cause point to evidence that shows that dynamical patterns (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, etc.) cannot account for the observed effects during May-June. We speculate that changing aerosols, perhaps related to vegetation changes, and increased strength of the aerosol direct and indirect effect may play a role in the observed linkages between these indices of temperature change and the hydrologic cycle.     

The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa

Using national crop and livestock production records from 1961-2003 and satellite-derived data on pasture greenness from 1982-2003 we show that the productivity of crops, livestock, and pastures in Africa is predictably associated with the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The causal relations of these results are partly understandable through the associations between the atmospheric fluctuations and African rainfall. The range of the explained among-year variation in crop production in Africa as a whole corresponds to the nutritional requirements for approximately 20 million people. Results suggest reduced African food production if the global climate changes toward more El Ni?o-like conditions, as most climate models predict. Maize production in southern Africa is most strongly affected by El Ni?o events. Management measures include annual changes in crop selection and storage strategies in response to El Ni?o Southern Oscillation-based and North Atlantic Oscillation-based predictions for the next growing season.     

Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena

Network theory, as emerging from complex systems science, can provide critical predictive power for mitigating the global warming crisis and other societal challenges. Here we discuss the main differences of this approach to classical numerical modeling and highlight several cases where the network approach substantially improved the prediction of high-impact phenomena: 1) El Niño events, 2) droughts in the central Amazon, 3) extreme rainfall in the eastern Central Andes, 4) the Indian summer monsoon, and 5) extreme stratospheric polar vortex states that influence the occurrence of wintertime cold spells in northern Eurasia. In this perspective, we argue that network-based approaches can gainfully complement numerical modeling.