Analysis and Optimal Design for Association Studies Using Next‐Generation Sequencing With Case‐Control Pools

With its potential to discover a much greater amount of genetic variation, next‐generation sequencing is fast becoming an emergent tool for genetic association studies. However, the cost of sequencing all individuals in a large‐scale population study is still high in comparison to most alternative genotyping options. While the ability to identify individual‐level data is lost (without bar‐coding), sequencing pooled samples can substantially lower costs without compromising the power to detect significant associations. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model that estimates the association of each variant using pools of cases and controls, accounting for the variation in read depth across pools and sequencing error. To investigate the performance of our method across a range of number of pools, number of individuals within each pool, and average coverage, we undertook extensive simulations varying effect sizes, minor allele frequencies, and sequencing error rates. In general, the number of pools and pool size have dramatic effects on power while the total depth of coverage per pool has only a moderate impact. This information can guide the selection of a study design that maximizes power subject to cost, sample size, or other laboratory constraints. We provide an R package (hiPOD: hierarchical Pooled Optimal Design) to find the optimal design, allowing the user to specify a cost function, cost, and sample size limitations, and distributions of effect size, minor allele frequency, and sequencing error rate.     

Confounded by sequencing depth in association studies of rare alleles

Next‐generation DNA sequencing technologies are facilitating large‐scale association studies of rare genetic variants. The depth of the sequence read coverage is an important experimental variable in the next‐generation technologies and it is a major determinant of the quality of genotype calls generated from sequence data. When case and control samples are sequenced separately or in different proportions across batches, they are unlikely to be matched on sequencing read depth and a differential misclassification of genotypes can result, causing confounding and an increased false‐positive rate. Data from Pilot Study 3 of the 1000 Genomes project was used to demonstrate that a difference between the mean sequencing read depth of case and control samples can result in false‐positive association for rare and uncommon variants, even when the mean coverage depth exceeds 30× in both groups. The degree of the confounding and inflation in the false‐positive rate depended on the extent to which the mean depth was different in the case and control groups. A logistic regression model was used to test for association between case‐control status and the cumulative number of alleles in a collapsed set of rare and uncommon variants. Including each individual's mean sequence read depth across the variant sites in the logistic regression model nearly eliminated the confounding effect and the inflated false‐positive rate. Furthermore, accounting for the potential error by modeling the probability of the heterozygote genotype calls in the regression analysis had a relatively minor but beneficial effect on the statistical results. Genet. Epidemiol. 35: 261‐268, 2011. © 2011 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Identifying Rare Variants With Optimal Depth of Coverage and Cost‐Effective Overlapping Pool Sequencing

Genome‐wide association studies have identified hundreds of genetic variants associated with complex diseases although most variants identified so far explain only a small proportion of heritability, suggesting that rare variants are responsible for missing heritability. Identification of rare variants through large‐scale resequencing becomes increasing important but still prohibitively expensive despite the rapid decline in the sequencing costs. Nevertheless, group testing based overlapping pool sequencing in which pooled rather than individual samples are sequenced will greatly reduces the efforts of sample preparation as well as the costs to screen for rare variants. Here, we proposed an overlapping pool sequencing to screen rare variants with optimal sequencing depth and a corresponding cost model. We formulated a model to compute the optimal depth for sufficient observations of variants in pooled sequencing. Utilizing shifted transversal design algorithm, appropriate parameters for overlapping pool sequencing could be selected to minimize cost and guarantee accuracy. Due to the mixing constraint and high depth for pooled sequencing, results showed that it was more cost‐effective to divide a large population into smaller blocks which were tested using optimized strategies independently. Finally, we conducted an experiment to screen variant carriers with frequency equaled 1%. With simulated pools and publicly available human exome sequencing data, the experiment achieved 99.93% accuracy. Utilizing overlapping pool sequencing, the cost for screening variant carriers with frequency equaled 1% in 200 diploid individuals dropped to at least 66% at which target sequencing region was set to 30 Mb.     

Design of association studies with pooled or un‐pooled next‐generation sequencing data

Most common hereditary diseases in humans are complex and multifactorial. Large‐scale genome‐wide association studies based on SNP genotyping have only identified a small fraction of the heritable variation of these diseases. One explanation may be that many rare variants (a minor allele frequency, MAF <5%), which are not included in the common genotyping platforms, may contribute substantially to the genetic variation of these diseases. Next‐generation sequencing, which would allow the analysis of rare variants, is now becoming so cheap that it provides a viable alternative to SNP genotyping. In this paper, we present cost‐effective protocols for using next‐generation sequencing in association mapping studies based on pooled and un‐pooled samples, and identify optimal designs with respect to total number of individuals, number of individuals per pool, and the sequencing coverage. We perform a small empirical study to evaluate the pooling variance in a realistic setting where pooling is combined with exon‐capturing. To test for associations, we develop a likelihood ratio statistic that accounts for the high error rate of next‐generation sequencing data. We also perform extensive simulations to determine the power and accuracy of this method. Overall, our findings suggest that with a fixed cost, sequencing many individuals at a more shallow depth with larger pool size achieves higher power than sequencing a small number of individuals in higher depth with smaller pool size, even in the presence of high error rates. Our results provide guidelines for researchers who are developing association mapping studies based on next‐generation sequencing. Genet. Epidemiol. 34: 479–491, 2010. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

A Note on the Efficiencies of Sampling Strategies in Two‐Stage Bayesian Regional Fine Mapping of a Quantitative Trait

In focused studies designed to follow up associations detected in a genome‐wide association study (GWAS), investigators can proceed to fine‐map a genomic region by targeted sequencing or dense genotyping of all variants in the region, aiming to identify a functional sequence variant. For the analysis of a quantitative trait, we consider a Bayesian approach to fine‐mapping study design that incorporates stratification according to a promising GWAS tag SNP in the same region. Improved cost‐efficiency can be achieved when the fine‐mapping phase incorporates a two‐stage design, with identification of a smaller set of more promising variants in a subsample taken in stage 1, followed by their evaluation in an independent stage 2 subsample. To avoid the potential negative impact of genetic model misspecification on inference we incorporate genetic model selection based on posterior probabilities for each competing model. Our simulation study shows that, compared to simple random sampling that ignores genetic information from GWAS, tag‐SNP‐based stratified sample allocation methods reduce the number of variants continuing to stage 2 and are more likely to promote the functional sequence variant into confirmation studies.     

On optimal pooling designs to identify rare variants through massive resequencing

The advent of next‐generation sequencing technologies has facilitated the detection of rare variants. Despite the significant cost reduction, sequencing cost is still high for large‐scale studies. In this article, we examine DNA pooling as a cost‐effective strategy for rare variant detection. We consider the optimal number of individuals in a DNA pool to detect an allele with a specific minor allele frequency (MAF) under a given coverage depth and detection threshold. We found that the optimal number of individuals in a pool is indifferent to the MAF at the same coverage depth and detection threshold. In addition, when the individual contributions to each pool are equal, the total number of individuals across different pools required in an optimal design to detect a variant with a desired power is similar at different coverage depths. When the contributions are more variable, more individuals tend to be needed for higher coverage depths. Our study provides general guidelines on using DNA pooling for more cost‐effective identifications of rare variants. Genet. Epidemiol. 35:139‐147, 2011. © 2011 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Improving power for rare‐variant tests by integrating external controls

Due to the drop in sequencing cost, the number of sequenced genomes is increasing rapidly. To improve power of rare‐variant tests, these sequenced samples could be used as external control samples in addition to control samples from the study itself. However, when using external controls, possible batch effects due to the use of different sequencing platforms or genotype calling pipelines can dramatically increase type I error rates. To address this, we propose novel summary statistics based single and gene‐ or region‐based rare‐variant tests that allow the integration of external controls while controlling for type I error. Our approach is based on the insight that batch effects on a given variant can be assessed by comparing odds ratio estimates using internal controls only vs. using combined control samples of internal and external controls. From simulation experiments and the analysis of data from age‐related macular degeneration and type 2 diabetes studies, we demonstrate that our method can substantially improve power while controlling for type I error rate.     

Impact of genotyping errors on statistical power of association tests in genomic analyses: A case study

A key step in genomic studies is to assess high throughput measurements across millions of markers for each participant's DNA, either using microarrays or sequencing techniques. Accurate genotype calling is essential for downstream statistical analysis of genotype‐phenotype associations, and next generation sequencing (NGS) has recently become a more common approach in genomic studies. How the accuracy of variant calling in NGS‐based studies affects downstream association analysis has not, however, been studied using empirical data in which both microarrays and NGS were available. In this article, we investigate the impact of variant calling errors on the statistical power to identify associations between single nucleotides and disease, and on associations between multiple rare variants and disease. Both differential and nondifferential genotyping errors are considered. Our results show that the power of burden tests for rare variants is strongly influenced by the specificity in variant calling, but is rather robust with regard to sensitivity. By using the variant calling accuracies estimated from a substudy of a Cooperative Studies Program project conducted by the Department of Veterans Affairs, we show that the power of association tests is mostly retained with commonly adopted variant calling pipelines. An R package, GWAS.PC, is provided to accommodate power analysis that takes account of genotyping errors ( http://zhaocenter.org/software/ ).     

A Fast and Noise‐Resilient Approach to Detect Rare‐Variant Associations With Deep Sequencing Data for Complex Disorders

Next generation sequencing technology has enabled the paradigm shift in genetic association studies from the common disease/common variant to common disease/rare‐variant hypothesis. Analyzing individual rare variants is known to be underpowered; therefore association methods have been developed that aggregate variants across a genetic region, which for exome sequencing is usually a gene. The foreseeable widespread use of whole genome sequencing poses new challenges in statistical analysis. It calls for new rare‐variant association methods that are statistically powerful, robust against high levels of noise due to inclusion of noncausal variants, and yet computationally efficient. We propose a simple and powerful statistic that combines the disease‐associated P‐values of individual variants using a weight that is the inverse of the expected standard deviation of the allele frequencies under the null. This approach, dubbed as Sigma‐P method, is extremely robust to the inclusion of a high proportion of noncausal variants and is also powerful when both detrimental and protective variants are present within a genetic region. The performance of the Sigma‐P method was tested using simulated data based on realistic population demographic and disease models and its power was compared to several previously published methods. The results demonstrate that this method generally outperforms other rare‐variant association methods over a wide range of models. Additionally, sequence data on the ANGPTL family of genes from the Dallas Heart Study were tested for associations with nine metabolic traits and both known and novel putative associations were uncovered using the Sigma‐P method.     

An efficient study design to test parent‐of‐origin effects in family trios

Increasing evidence has shown that genes may cause prenatal, neonatal, and pediatric diseases depending on their parental origins. Statistical models that incorporate parent‐of‐origin effects (POEs) can improve the power of detecting disease‐associated genes and help explain the missing heritability of diseases. In many studies, children have been sequenced for genome‐wide association testing. But it may become unaffordable to sequence their parents and evaluate POEs. Motivated by the reality, we proposed a budget‐friendly study design of sequencing children and only genotyping their parents through single nucleotide polymorphism array. We developed a powerful likelihood‐based method, which takes into account both sequence reads and linkage disequilibrium to infer the parental origins of children's alleles and estimate their POEs on the outcome. We evaluated the performance of our proposed method and compared it with an existing method using only genotypes, through extensive simulations. Our method showed higher power than the genotype‐based method. When either the mean read depth or the pair‐end length was reasonably large, our method achieved ideal power. When single parents’ genotypes were unavailable or parental genotypes at the testing locus were not typed, both methods lost power compared with when complete data were available; but the power loss from our method was smaller than the genotype‐based method. We also extended our method to accommodate mixed genotype, low‐, and high‐coverage sequence data from children and their parents. At presence of sequence errors, low‐coverage parental sequence data may lead to lower power than parental genotype data.     

Pathway‐Based Approaches for Sequencing‐Based Genome‐Wide Association Studies

For analyzing complex trait association with sequencing data, most current studies test aggregated effects of variants in a gene or genomic region. Although gene‐based tests have insufficient power even for moderately sized samples, pathway‐based analyses combine information across multiple genes in biological pathways and may offer additional insight. However, most existing pathway association methods are originally designed for genome‐wide association studies, and are not comprehensively evaluated for sequencing data. Moreover, region‐based rare variant association methods, although potentially applicable to pathway‐based analysis by extending their region definition to gene sets, have never been rigorously tested. In the context of exome‐based studies, we use simulated and real datasets to evaluate pathway‐based association tests. Our simulation strategy adopts a genome‐wide genetic model that distributes total genetic effects hierarchically into pathways, genes, and individual variants, allowing the evaluation of pathway‐based methods with realistic quantifiable assumptions on the underlying genetic architectures. The results show that, although no single pathway‐based association method offers superior performance in all simulated scenarios, a modification of Gene Set Enrichment Analysis approach using statistics from single‐marker tests without gene‐level collapsing (weighted Kolmogrov‐Smirnov [WKS]‐Variant method) is consistently powerful. Interestingly, directly applying rare variant association tests (e.g., sequence kernel association test) to pathway analysis offers a similar power, but its results are sensitive to assumptions of genetic architecture. We applied pathway association analysis to an exome‐sequencing data of the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and found that the WKS‐Variant method confirms associated genes previously published.     

Efficient study design for next generation sequencing

Next Generation Sequencing represents a powerful tool for detecting genetic variation associated with human disease. Because of the high cost of this technology, it is critical that we develop efficient study designs that consider the trade‐off between the number of subjects (n) and the coverage depth (µ). How we divide our resources between the two can greatly impact study success, particularly in pilot studies. We propose a strategy for selecting the optimal combination of n and µ for studies aimed at detecting rare variants and for studies aimed at detecting associations between rare or uncommon variants and disease. For detecting rare variants, we find the optimal coverage depth to be between 2 and 8 reads when using the likelihood ratio test. For association studies, we find the strategy of sequencing all available subjects to be preferable. In deriving these combinations, we provide a detailed analysis describing the distribution of depth across a genome and the depth needed to identify a minor allele in an individual. The optimal coverage depth depends on the aims of the study, and the chosen depth can have a large impact on study success. Genet. Epidemiol. 35: 269‐277, 2011. © 2011 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Combining sequence data from multiple studies: Impact of analysis strategies on rare variant calling and association results

Individual sequencing studies often have limited sample sizes and so limited power to detect trait associations with rare variants. A common strategy is to aggregate data from multiple studies. For studying rare variants, jointly calling all samples together is the gold standard strategy but can be difficult to implement due to privacy restrictions and computational burden. Here, we compare joint calling to the alternative of single-study calling in terms of variant detection sensitivity and genotype accuracy as a function of sequencing coverage and assess their impact on downstream association analysis. To do so, we analyze deep-coverage (~82×) exome and low-coverage (~5×) genome sequence data on 2,250 individuals from the Genetics of Type 2 Diabetes study jointly and separately within five geographic cohorts. For rare single nucleotide variants (SNVs): (a) ≥97% of discovered SNVs are found by both calling strategies; (b) nonreference concordance with a set of highly accurate genotypes is ≥99% for both calling strategies; (c) meta-analysis has similar power to joint analysis in deep-coverage sequence data but can be less powerful in low-coverage sequence data. Given similar data processing and quality control steps, we recommend single-study calling as a viable alternative to joint calling for analyzing SNVs of all minor allele frequency in deep-coverage data.     

A powerful association test of multiple genetic variants using a random‐effects model

There is an emerging interest in sequencing‐based association studies of multiple rare variants. Most association tests suggested in the literature involve collapsing rare variants with or without weighting. Recently, a variance‐component score test [sequence kernel association test (SKAT)] was proposed to address the limitations of collapsing method. Although SKAT was shown to outperform most of the alternative tests, its applications and power might be restricted and influenced by missing genotypes. In this paper, we suggest a new method based on testing whether the fraction of causal variants in a region is zero. The new association test, T _REM, is derived from a random‐effects model and allows for missing genotypes, and the choice of weighting function is not required when common and rare variants are analyzed simultaneously. We performed simulations to study the type I error rates and power of four competing tests under various conditions on the sample size, genotype missing rate, variant frequency, effect directionality, and the number of non‐causal rare variant and/or causal common variant. The simulation results showed that T _REM was a valid test and less sensitive to the inclusion of non‐causal rare variants and/or low effect common variants or to the presence of missing genotypes. When the effects were more consistent in the same direction, T _REM also had better power performance. Finally, an application to the Shanghai Breast Cancer Study showed that rare causal variants at the FGFR2 gene were detected by T _REM and SKAT, but T _REM produced more consistent results for different sets of rare and common variants. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining Family‐ and Population‐Based Imputation Data for Association Analysis of Rare and Common Variants in Large Pedigrees

In the last two decades, complex traits have become the main focus of genetic studies. The hypothesis that both rare and common variants are associated with complex traits is increasingly being discussed. Family‐based association studies using relatively large pedigrees are suitable for both rare and common variant identification. Because of the high cost of sequencing technologies, imputation methods are important for increasing the amount of information at low cost. A recent family‐based imputation method, Genotype Imputation Given Inheritance (GIGI), is able to handle large pedigrees and accurately impute rare variants, but does less well for common variants where population‐based methods perform better. Here, we propose a flexible approach to combine imputation data from both family‐ and population‐based methods. We also extend the Sequence Kernel Association Test for Rare and Common variants (SKAT‐RC), originally proposed for data from unrelated subjects, to family data in order to make use of such imputed data. We call this extension “famSKAT‐RC.” We compare the performance of famSKAT‐RC and several other existing burden and kernel association tests. In simulated pedigree sequence data, our results show an increase of imputation accuracy from use of our combining approach. Also, they show an increase of power of the association tests with this approach over the use of either family‐ or population‐based imputation methods alone, in the context of rare and common variants. Moreover, our results show better performance of famSKAT‐RC compared to the other considered tests, in most scenarios investigated here.     

Extracting Actionable Information From Genome Scans

Genome‐wide association studies discovered numerous genetic variants significantly associated with various phenotypes. However, significant signals explain only a small portion of the variation in many traits. One explanation is that missing variation is found in “suggestive signals,” i.e., variants with reasonably small P‐values. However, it is not clear how to capture this information and use it optimally to design and analyze future studies. We propose to extract the available information from a genome scan by accurately estimating the means of univariate statistics. The means are estimated by: (i) computing the sum of squares (SS) of a genome scan's univariate statistics, (ii) using SS to estimate the expected SS for the means (SSM) of univariate statistics, and (iii) constructing accurate soft threshold (ST) estimators for means of univariate statistics by requiring that the SS of these estimators equals the SSM. When compared to competitors, ST estimators explain a substantially higher fraction of the variability in true means. The accuracy of proposed estimators can be used to design two‐tier follow‐up studies in which regions close to variants having ST‐estimated means above a certain threshold are sequenced at high coverage and the rest of the genome is sequenced at low coverage. This follow‐up approach reduces the sequencing burden by at least an order of magnitude when compared to a high coverage sequencing of the whole genome. Finally, we suggest ways in which ST methodology can be used to improve signal detection in future sequencing studies and to perform general statistical model selection.     

A Weighted U‐Statistic for Genetic Association Analyses of Sequencing Data

With advancements in next‐generation sequencing technology, a massive amount of sequencing data is generated, which offers a great opportunity to comprehensively investigate the role of rare variants in the genetic etiology of complex diseases. Nevertheless, the high‐dimensional sequencing data poses a great challenge for statistical analysis. The association analyses based on traditional statistical methods suffer substantial power loss because of the low frequency of genetic variants and the extremely high dimensionality of the data. We developed a Weighted U Sequencing test, referred to as WU‐SEQ, for the high‐dimensional association analysis of sequencing data. Based on a nonparametric U‐statistic, WU‐SEQ makes no assumption of the underlying disease model and phenotype distribution, and can be applied to a variety of phenotypes. Through simulation studies and an empirical study, we showed that WU‐SEQ outperformed a commonly used sequence kernel association test (SKAT) method when the underlying assumptions were violated (e.g., the phenotype followed a heavy‐tailed distribution). Even when the assumptions were satisfied, WU‐SEQ still attained comparable performance to SKAT. Finally, we applied WU‐SEQ to sequencing data from the Dallas Heart Study (DHS), and detected an association between ANGPTL 4 and very low density lipoprotein cholesterol.     

Meta‐Analysis of Rare Variant Association Tests in Multiethnic Populations

Several methods have been proposed to increase power in rare variant association testing by aggregating information from individual rare variants (MAF < 0.005). However, how to best combine rare variants across multiple ethnicities and the relative performance of designs using different ethnic sampling fractions remains unknown. In this study, we compare the performance of several statistical approaches for assessing rare variant associations across multiple ethnicities. We also explore how different ethnic sampling fractions perform, including single‐ethnicity studies and studies that sample up to four ethnicities. We conducted simulations based on targeted sequencing data from 4,611 women in four ethnicities (African, European, Japanese American, and Latina). As with single‐ethnicity studies, burden tests had greater power when all causal rare variants were deleterious, and variance component‐based tests had greater power when some causal rare variants were deleterious and some were protective. Multiethnic studies had greater power than single‐ethnicity studies at many loci, with inclusion of African Americans providing the largest impact. On average, studies including African Americans had as much as 20% greater power than equivalently sized studies without African Americans. This suggests that association studies between rare variants and complex disease should consider including subjects from multiple ethnicities, with preference given to genetically diverse groups.     

Recommended Joint and Meta‐Analysis Strategies for Case‐Control Association Testing of Single Low‐Count Variants

In genome‐wide association studies of binary traits, investigators typically use logistic regression to test common variants for disease association within studies, and combine association results across studies using meta‐analysis. For common variants, logistic regression tests are well calibrated, and meta‐analysis of study‐specific association results is only slightly less powerful than joint analysis of the combined individual‐level data. In recent sequencing and dense chip based association studies, investigators increasingly test low‐frequency variants for disease association. In this paper, we seek to (1) identify the association test with maximal power among tests with well controlled type I error rate and (2) compare the relative power of joint and meta‐analysis tests. We use analytic calculation and simulation to compare the empirical type I error rate and power of four logistic regression based tests: Wald, score, likelihood ratio, and Firth bias‐corrected. We demonstrate for low‐count variants (roughly minor allele count [MAC] < 400) that: (1) for joint analysis, the Firth test has the best combination of type I error and power; (2) for meta‐analysis of balanced studies (equal numbers of cases and controls), the score test is best, but is less powerful than Firth test based joint analysis; and (3) for meta‐analysis of sufficiently unbalanced studies, all four tests can be anti‐conservative, particularly the score test. We also establish MAC as the key parameter determining test calibration for joint and meta‐analysis.     

gsSKAT: Rapid gene set analysis and multiple testing correction for rare‐variant association studies using weighted linear kernels

Next‐generation sequencing technologies have afforded unprecedented characterization of low‐frequency and rare genetic variation. Due to low power for single‐variant testing, aggregative methods are commonly used to combine observed rare variation within a single gene. Causal variation may also aggregate across multiple genes within relevant biomolecular pathways. Kernel‐machine regression and adaptive testing methods for aggregative rare‐variant association testing have been demonstrated to be powerful approaches for pathway‐level analysis, although these methods tend to be computationally intensive at high‐variant dimensionality and require access to complete data. An additional analytical issue in scans of large pathway definition sets is multiple testing correction. Gene set definitions may exhibit substantial genic overlap, and the impact of the resultant correlation in test statistics on Type I error rate control for large agnostic gene set scans has not been fully explored. Herein, we first outline a statistical strategy for aggregative rare‐variant analysis using component gene‐level linear kernel score test summary statistics as well as derive simple estimators of the effective number of tests for family‐wise error rate control. We then conduct extensive simulation studies to characterize the behavior of our approach relative to direct application of kernel and adaptive methods under a variety of conditions. We also apply our method to two case‐control studies, respectively, evaluating rare variation in hereditary prostate cancer and schizophrenia. Finally, we provide open‐source R code for public use to facilitate easy application of our methods to existing rare‐variant analysis results.