Perinatal mortality in rural Malawi.

Reported are the results of a study to assess the prevalence and risk factors for perinatal death among pregnant women in Malawi over the period 1987-90. There were 264 perinatal deaths among the 3866 women with singleton pregnancies (perinatal mortality rate, 68.3 per 1000 births). Among the risk factors for perinatal mortality were the following: reactive syphilis serology, nulliparity, a late fetal or neonatal death in the most recent previous birth, maternal height < 150 cm, home delivery, and low socioeconomic status. Although unexplained perinatal deaths will continue to occur, perinatal mortality can be reduced if its causes and risk factors in a community are given priority in antenatal and intrapartum care programmes. The following interventions could potentially reduce the perinatal mortality in the study population: screening and treating women with reactive syphilis serology; and management from early labour, by competent personnel in a health facility, of nulliparous women and multiparous women who are short or have a history of a perinatal death.     

Malaria specific mortality in lowlands and highlands of Muheza district, north-eastern Tanzania

Vital registration of causes of death in Tanzania is incomplete and many deaths occur outside health care settings. Verbal autopsies (VA) are used to determine the underlying cause of death, and the probable diagnosis helps to estimate reasonably cause-specific mortality. In this paper, we report findings of a verbal autopsy survey which involved eight villages in both low and highlands of Muheza district, north-eastern Tanzania. The survey was conducted following a rapid census, which was done to identify households that had lost one or more members within a period of two years from the date of census. Trained research assistants administered VA questionnaires to parents/close relatives. Two physicians reviewed each report independently and a third opinion was sought where there was discordant report between the two. A total of 9,872 households were surveyed and 134 deaths were recorded. A total of 96 (71.6%) deaths were from lowland villages representing high malaria transmission. Majority (72.4%) of the reported deaths occurred at home whilst 32.1% occurred at heath facility settings. Overall, severe malaria was the leading cause accounting for 34.3% of all deaths. Infants were most affected and accounted for 43.5% of the total deaths. Pulmonary tuberculosis ranked second (8.2%) cause of deaths and was exclusively confined to individuals > or = 15 years. Probable cause of death could not be determined in 13.4% of deaths. In conclusion, majority of deaths in rural north-eastern Tanzania occur at home and the immediate causes are usually unknown or not documented. These findings indicate that the verbal autopsy is a useful tool for detecting leading causes of death at community level in the absence of health facility-based data.     

Iraq War mortality estimates: A systematic review

Background

In March 2003, the United States invaded Iraq. The subsequent number, rates, and causes of mortality in Iraq resulting from the war remain unclear, despite intense international attention. Understanding mortality estimates from modern warfare, where the majority of casualties are civilian, is of critical importance for public health and protection afforded under international humanitarian law. We aimed to review the studies, reports and counts on Iraqi deaths since the start of the war and assessed their methodological quality and results.

Methods

We performed a systematic search of 15 electronic databases from inception to January 2008. In addition, we conducted a non-structured search of 3 other databases, reviewed study reference lists and contacted subject matter experts. We included studies that provided estimates of Iraqi deaths based on primary research over a reported period of time since the invasion. We excluded studies that summarized mortality estimates and combined non-fatal injuries and also studies of specific sub-populations, e.g. under-5 mortality. We calculated crude and cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence and average deaths per day for each study, where not already provided.

Results

Thirteen studies met the eligibility criteria. The studies used a wide range of methodologies, varying from sentinel-data collection to population-based surveys. Studies assessed as the highest quality, those using population-based methods, yielded the highest estimates. Average deaths per day ranged from 48 to 759. The cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence ranged from 0.64 to 10.25 per 1,000 per year.

Conclusion

Our review indicates that, despite varying estimates, the mortality burden of the war and its sequelae on Iraq is large. The use of established epidemiological methods is rare. This review illustrates the pressing need to promote sound epidemiologic approaches to determining mortality estimates and to establish guidelines for policy-makers, the media and the public on how to interpret these estimates.     

Demographic survey of the level and determinants of perinatal mortality in Karachi, Pakistan

Summary. .A demographic survey was used to estimate the level and determinants of perinatal mortality in eight lower socio-economic squatter settlements of Karachi, Pakistan. The perinatal mortality rate was 54.1 per 1000 births, with a stillbirth to early neonatal mortality ratio of 1:1. About 65% of neonatal deaths occurred in the early neonatal period, and early neonatal mortality contributed 32% of all infant deaths. Risk factor assessment was conducted on 375 perinatal deaths and 6070 current survivors. Poorer socio-economic status variables such as maternal and paternal illiteracy, maternal work outside the home and fewer household assets were significantly associated with perinatal mortality as were biological factors of higher parental age, short birth intervals and poor obstetric history. Multivariable logistic analysis indicated that some socioeconomic factors retained their significance after adjusting for the more proximate biological factors. Population attributable risk estimates suggest that public health measures for screening of high-risk women and use of family planning to space births will not improve perinatal mortality substantially without improvement of socio-economic conditions, particularly maternal education. The results of this study indicate that an evaluation of perinatal mortality can be conducted using pregnancy histories derived from demographic surveys.     

北京市海淀区围生儿死亡状况动态分析

目的探讨北京市海淀区围生儿死亡变化规律和主要死亡原因。方法资料来源于北京市围生儿死亡监测网,采用以人群为基础的监测方法。围生儿死亡数据来源于分娩医院或地段保健科填写的北京市围生儿死亡报告卡。结果海淀区1997~2005年平均围生儿死亡率7.09‰,由1997年的8.22‰降至2005年的4.24‰;早期新生儿死亡率由1997年的3.82‰降至2005年的2.01‰。围生儿死亡和早期新生儿死亡的首位死因均为出生缺陷,早期新生儿死亡中出生缺陷死亡专率呈下降趋势。结论海淀区围生儿死亡率降低主要是早期新生儿死亡率降低所致,早期新生儿死亡率降低的主要原因是围生期的出生缺陷儿减少。     

山西省2000～2002年围生儿死亡情况分析

目的　了解山西省围生儿死亡的动态变化 ,主要原因及其相关因素。　方法　对山西省 2 0 0 0～ 2 0 0 2年的围生儿死亡监测资料进行回顾性分析。　结果　山西省围生儿死亡率 ,2 0 0 0年为2 2 .7‰ (5 98/ 2 6 387) ,2 0 0 2年为 15 .1‰ (4 17/ 2 770 7) ,呈下降趋势 ;死胎是围生儿死亡的主要构成 ,畸形是第 1位死因 ,占 30 .9% (4 6 4 / 15 0 1) ;早产是第 2位死因 ,占 17.5 % (2 6 2 / 15 0 1) ;围生儿死亡病例中大部分为不可避免死亡 ,占围生儿死亡的 6 1.4 % (92 1/ 15 0 1) ;多数可避免的死亡与知识技能有关 ,尤其是与个人家庭居民团体的知识技能缺乏有关。　结论　加强健康教育 ,切实作好孕产妇尤其是高危孕产妇的系统管理 ,提高产科儿科质量 ,全社会共同关注母婴健康是降低围生儿死亡的关键     

Estimating mortality and causes of death in Turkey: methods, results and policy implications

BACKGROUND: Cause-specific mortality statistics are primary evidence for health policy formulation, programme evaluation, and epidemiological research. In Turkey, a partially functioning vital registration system in urban areas yields fragmentary evidence on levels and causes of mortality. This article discusses the application of innovative methods to develop national mortality estimates in Turkey, and their implications for national health development policies. METHODS: Child mortality levels from the Demography and Health Survey (DHS) were applied to model life tables to estimate age-specific death rates. Reported causes of death from urban areas were adjusted using re-distribution algorithms from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. Rural cause structure was estimated from epidemiological models. Local epidemiological data was used to adjust model-based estimates. RESULTS: Life expectancy at birth in 2000 was estimated to be 67.7 years (males) and 71.9 years (females), about 8-10 years lower than in Western Europe. Leading causes of death include major vascular diseases (ischaemic heart disease, stroke) causing 35-38% of deaths, chronic obstructive lung disease and lung cancer in men, but also perinatal causes, lower respiratory infections and diarrhoeal diseases. Injuries cause about 6-8% of deaths, although this may be an underestimate. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality estimates are uncertain in Turkey, given the poor quality of death registration systems. Application of burden of disease methods suggests that there has been progress along the epidemiological transition. Key health development strategies for Turkey include improved access to communicable disease control technologies, and urgent attention to the development of a reliable, nationally representative health information system.     

Integrated multisource estimates of mortality for Thailand in 2005

Estimates of mortality in Thailand during 2005 have been published, integrating multiple data sources including national vital registration and a national follow-up cluster sample, covering both deaths in health facilities (approximately one-third) and elsewhere. The methodological challenge is to make the best use of the existing data, supplemented by additional data that are feasible to obtain, in order to arrive at the best possible overall estimates of mortality. In this case, information from the national vital registration database was supplemented by a verbal autopsy survey of approximately 2.5% of deaths, the latter being used to validate routine cause-of-death data and information from medical records. This led to a revised national cause-specific mortality envelope for Thailand in 2005, amounting to 447,104 deaths. However, difficulties over standardizing verbal autopsy interpretation may mean that there are still some uncertainties in these revised estimates.     

Challenge of reducing perinatal mortality in rural Congo: findings of a prospective, population-based study

Each year, an estimated six million perinatal deaths occur worldwide, and 98% of these deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. These estimates are based on surveys in both urban and rural areas, and they may underrepresent the problem in rural areas. This study was conducted to quantify perinatal mortality, to identify the associated risk factors, and to determine the most common causes of early neonatal death in a rural area of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Data were collected on 1,892 births. Risk factors associated with perinatal deaths were identified using multivariate analysis with logistic regression models. Causes of early neonatal deaths were determined by physician-review of information describing death. The perinatal mortality rate was 61 per 1,000 births; the stillbirth rate was 30 per 1,000 births; and the early neonatal death rate was 32 per 1,000 livebirths. Clinically-relevant factors independently associated with perinatal death included: low birthweight [odds ratio (OR)=13.51, 95% confidence interval (CI) 7.82-23.35], breech presentation (OR)=12.41; 95% CI 4.62-33.33), lack of prenatal care (OR=2.70, 95% CI 1.81-4.02), and parity greater than 4 (OR=1.93 95% CI 1.11-3.37). Over one-half of early neonatal deaths (n=37) occurred during the first two postnatal days, and the most common causes were low birthweight/prematurity (47%), asphyxia (34%), and infection (8%). The high perinatal mortality rate in rural communities in the DRC, approximately one-half of which is attributable to early neonatal death, may be modifiable. Specifically, deaths due to breech presentation, the second most common risk factor, may be reduced by making available emergency obstetric care. Most neonatal deaths occur soon after birth, and nearly three-quarters are caused by low birthweight/prematurity or asphyxia. Neonatal mortality might be reduced by targeting interventions to improve neonatal resuscitation and care of larger preterm infants.     

Persistent and acute diarrhoea as the leading causes of child mortality in urban Guinea Bissau.

An investigation of child mortality in a semi-urban community, Bandim II, in the capital of Guinea Bissau was carried out from April 1987 to March 1990. 153 deaths were recorded among 1426 live-born children who were followed for 2753 child-years. The under-five mortality risk was 215 per 1000 children (95% confidence interval [CI] 176-264), infant mortality 94 per 1000 (95% CI 73-115), and perinatal mortality 52 per 1000 (95% CI 41-63). By prospective registration of morbidity, post-mortem interviews, and examination of available hospital records, a presumptive cause of death was established in 86% of the deaths. Persistent and acute diarrhoea were the most frequent causes of death, accounting for 43 and 31 deaths per 1000 children, respectively. Fever deaths (possibly malaria), neonatal deaths, acute respiratory infections, and measles were other frequent causes. The access to health services was relatively easy: 75% of the children who died had attended for treatment at a hospital or a health centre. It is important to find ways of preventing and managing persistent diarrhoea, the major cause of death, and to improve the control of acute diarrhoea by a targeted approach.     

Validation of verbal autopsy procedures for adult deaths in China

BACKGROUND: Vital registration of causes of death in China is incomplete with poor coverage of medical certification. Information on the leading causes of mortality will continue to rely on verbal autopsy (VA) methods. A new international VA form is being considered for data collection in China, but it first needs to be validated to determine its operating characteristics. METHODS: Detailed medical records and clinical evidence for 3290 deaths (mostly adults) among residents of six cities representative of the urban Chinese population were reviewed by a panel of physicians and coded by experts to establish a reference underlying cause of death. Independently, families of the deceased were interviewed using a structured symptomatic questionnaire and a separate death certificate was prepared for each matching case (2102). Validity of the VA procedure was assessed using standard measurement criteria of sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value. RESULTS: VA methods perform reasonably well in identifying deaths from several leading causes of adult deaths including stroke, several major cancer sites (lung, liver, stomach, oesophagus, and colorectal), and transport accidents. Sensitivity was less satisfactory in detecting deaths from several causes of major public health concern in China including ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, and tuberculosis, and was particularly poor in diagnosing deaths from viral hepatitis, hypertension, and kidney diseases. CONCLUSIONS: VA is an imprecise tool for detecting leading causes of death among adults. However, much of the misclassification generally occurs within broad cause groups (e.g. CVD, respiratory diseases, and liver diseases). Moreover, compensating patterns of misclassification would appear to suggest that, in urban China at least, the method yields population-level cause-specific estimates that are reasonably reliable. These results suggest the possible utility of these methods in rural China, to back up the low coverage of medical certification of cause of death owing to poor access to health facilities there.     

Effect of misclassification of causes of death in verbal autopsy: can it be adjusted?

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) is an indirect method of ascertaining cause of death from information about symptoms and signs obtained from bereaved relatives. This method has been used in several settings to assess cause-specific mortality. However, cause-specific mortality estimates obtained by VA are susceptible to bias due to misclassification of causes of death. One way of overcoming this limitation of VA is to adjust the crude VA estimate of cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF) using the sensitivity and specificity of the VA tool. This paper explores the application of sensitivity and specificity of VA data obtained from a hospital-based validation study for adjusting the effect of misclassification error in VA data obtained from a demographic surveillance system. METHOD: Data from a multi-centre validation study of 796 adult VA, conducted in Tanzania, Ethiopia and Ghana, were used to explore the effect of distribution of causes of death in the validation study population and the pattern of misclassification on the sensitivity and specificity of VA. VA estimates of CSMF for six causes (acute febrile illness, diarrhoeal diseases, TB/AIDS, cardiovascular disorders, direct maternal causes and injures) were obtained from a demographic surveillance system in Morogoro Rural District in Tanzania. These were adjusted for misclassification error by using sensitivity and specificity values of VA obtained from the validation study in a model proposed for correcting the effect of misclassification error in morbidity prevalence surveys. RESULTS: Sensitivity and specificity of VA differed between the three validation study sites depending on the distribution of causes of death. These differences were explained by variations in the level and pattern of misclassification between sites. When these estimates of sensitivity and specificity were applied to data from the demographic surveillance system with a comparable structure of causes of death the difference between crude and adjusted VA estimates of CSMF ranged from 3 to 83%. CONCLUSION: Estimates of sensitivity and specificity obtained from hospital-based validation studies must be used cautiously as a de facto 'gold standard' for adjusting the misclassification error in CSMF derived from VA. It is not possible to use sensitivity and specificity estimates derived from a location-specific validation study to adjust for misclassification in VA data from populations with substantially different patterns of cause-specific mortality.     

Five-decade international trends in the relation of perinatal mortality and congenital malformations: stillbirth and neonatal death compared.

The relation between long-term temporal trends in stillbirth and neonatal death rates and the congenital malformation frequencies in such deaths were analysed, using data from hospital-based European, USA, and Canadian reports published from 1950. In the last 50 years the overall perinatal mortality rate has fairly steadily improved, decreasing by 65-80%. This was accomplished by the control of some serious problems of early life. However, lingering disorders form an ever larger proportion of the causes of perinatal mortality. Among the prominent of these are congenital malformations, accounting for nearly 30% of perinatal deaths at present. However, this figure conceals important differences between stillbirths and early neonatal deaths. For example, although stillbirth and early neonatal mortality rates have decreased to similar extents during these years, congenital malformations, which were almost equally frequent causes of death in both of them at the beginning of this period, are now about twice as common in early neonatal (one week) deaths as in stillbirths. Other differences between them are in birthweight-related malformation frequencies and in characteristic arrays of malformations. The significance of these patterns and of some geographical variations, and the likelihood of continuing improvement in the stillbirth and early neonatal mortality rates are discussed.     

Evaluation of neonatal verbal autopsy using physician review versus algorithm-based cause-of-death assignment in rural Nepal

Verbal autopsy (VA) is used to ascertain cause-specific neonatal mortality using parental/familial recall. We sought to compare agreement between causes of death obtained from the VA by physician review vs. computer-based algorithms. Data were drawn from a cluster-randomised trial involving 4130 live-born infants and 167 neonatal deaths in the rural Sarlahi District of Nepal. We examined the agreement between causes ascertained by physician review and algorithm assignment by the kappa (kappa) statistic. We also compared responses to identical questions posed posthumously during neonatal VA interviews with those obtained during maternal interviews and clinical examinations regarding condition of newborns soon after birth. Physician reviewers assigned prematurity or acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) as causes of 48% of neonatal deaths; 41% were assigned as uncertain. The algorithm approach assigned sepsis (52%), ALRI (31%), birth asphyxia (29%), and prematurity (24%) as the most common causes of neonatal death. Physician review and algorithm assignment of causes of death showed high kappa for prematurity (0.73), diarrhoea (0.81) and ALRI (0.68), but was low for congenital malformation (0.44), birth asphyxia (0.17) and sepsis (0.00). Sensitivity and specificity of VA interview questions varied by symptom, with positive predictive values ranging from 50% to 100%, when compared with maternal interviews and examinations of neonates soon after birth. Analysis of the VA data by physician review and computer-based algorithms yielded disparate results for some causes but not for others. We recommend an analysis technique that combines both methods, and further validation studies to improve performance of the VA for assigning causes of neonatal death.     

Causes of perinatal mortality in an African city.

Little has been published about the causes of most of the deaths responsible for the high perinatal mortality rates characteristic of preindustrial, urban societies. The present study searched for answers in one such society by identifying the causes of death in a large-scale analysis of perinatal mortality in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A 72% autopsy rate was achieved when 1019 postmortem examinations were performed for 1424 consecutive perinatal deaths. The overall perinatal mortality rate was 65.3 per thousand live births. The ratio of stillbirths to neonatal deaths was 2.7:1, indicating that maternal factors were dominant in causing the deaths. One-third of the deaths were due to amniotic fluid infections, 15% to obstructed labour, 8% to abruptio placentae, and the rest to more than 20 other specific disorders.     

Causes of stillbirths and early neonatal deaths: data from 7993 pregnancies in six developing countries

OBJECTIVE: To report stillbirth and early neonatal mortality and to quantify the relative importance of different primary obstetric causes of perinatal mortality in 171 perinatal deaths from 7993 pregnancies that ended after 28 weeks in nulliparous women. METHODS: A review of all stillbirths and early newborn deaths reported in the WHO calcium supplementation trial for the prevention of pre-eclampsia conducted at seven WHO collaborating centres in Argentina, Egypt, India, Peru, South Africa and Viet Nam. We used the Baird-Pattinson system to assign primary obstetric causes of death and classified causes of early neonatal death using the International classification of diseases and related health problems, Tenth revision (ICD-10). FINDINGS: Stillbirth rate was 12.5 per 1000 births and early neonatal mortality rate was 9.0 per 1000 live births. Spontaneous preterm delivery and hypertensive disorders were the most common obstetric events leading to perinatal deaths (28.7% and 23.6%, respectively). Prematurity was the main cause of early neonatal deaths (62%). CONCLUSIONS: Advancements in the care of premature infants and prevention of spontaneous preterm labour and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy could lead to a substantial decrease in perinatal mortality in hospital settings in developing countries.     

Perinatal mortality in southern Italy

Perinatal deaths occurring in the Campania region of southern Italy in 1982 were analysed. The perinatal mortality rate was 17.6 per thousand (stillbirth rate 8.3, early neonatal mortality rate 9.3). Compared with Swedish data, our deaths excess does not seem attributable to an unfavourable birthweight distribution, but to high birthweight mortality rates in every birthweight category and particularly in the normal birthweight group (greater than 2500 g). This group of newborns, representing about 94% of the births, contributes 45.4% of perinatal deaths; this situation is not common in developed countries, where the normal birthweight newborns form a much smaller proportion of perinatal deaths. The analysis of the causes of perinatal mortality, even though autopsies are rarely executed in Campania, shows a high prevalence of events which should be prevented by good antenatal and perinatal care.     

Perinatal mortality and evitability: a review

This is a literature review onperinatal mortality focusing its evitability. A Medline and Lilacs (Latin-America and Caribbean) search was conducted for the 90s. There are few research studies on this subject in Brazil due to the great number of underreported fetal deaths and the low quality information provided in death certificates. Different proposals for perinatal death classification are presented. Most are based on grouping the underlying causes of deaths in a functional system in order to facilitate the analysis. In the Wigglesworth classification system, one of the most recommended methods, deaths are related to the different stages of care for pregnant women and children, evidencing the possibilities of their prevention. The evitability approach of perinatal deaths in Brazil is highly recommended, as mortality rates are still very high and most of the deaths are considered avoidable. Premature deaths could be avoided improving the quality of health care. Besides improving the medical assistance, the organization of health care regarding pre-natal, birth and neonatal care must also be better developed to ensure access to qualified assistance.     

Perinatal mortality in southern Italy

Summary. Perinatal deaths occurring in the Campania region of southern Italy in 1982 were analysed. The perinatal mortality rate was 17.6 per thousand (stillbirth rate 8.3, early neonatal mortality rate 9.3). Compared with Swedish data, our deaths excess does not seem attributable to an unfavourable birthweight distribution, but to high birthweight mortality rates in every birthweight category and particularly in the normal birthweight group (>2500 g). This group of newborns, representing about 94% of the births, contributes 45.4% of perinatal deaths; this situation is not common in developed countries, where the normal birthweight newborns form a much smaller proportion of perinatal deaths. The analysis of the causes of perinatal mortality, even though autopsies are rarely executed in Campania, shows a high prevalence of events which should be prevented by good antenatal and perinatal care.     

The magnitude of the maternal mortality problem in sub-Saharan Africa

Estimates of national levels of maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa are based on limited and defective data and subject to considerable discussion. In this paper, existing data from several sources are reviewed. The attempt has been made to assess the level of maternal mortality by studying the relative importance of maternal death, health services coverage data, perinatal mortality, causes of maternal death and traditional birth practices. It is concluded that national levels of maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa most likely vary from 250 to 700 per 100,000 live births, in proportion to the variation in overall levels of mortality in the countries. There is a need for more studies either based on data from peripheral hospitals or on community surveys. Such studies should analyse coverage of deliveries, coverage of maternal deaths, causes of maternal deaths, socioeconomic differentials, perinatal mortality and should pay special attention to the increasing problem of abortion-related mortality.