Comparative analysis of predictive models for nongenotoxic hepatocarcinogenicity using both toxicogenomics and quantitative structure-activity relationships

The primary testing strategy to identify nongenotoxic carcinogens largely relies on the 2-year rodent bioassay, which is time-consuming and labor-intensive. There is an increasing effort to develop alternative approaches to prioritize the chemicals for, supplement, or even replace the cancer bioassay. In silico approaches based on quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) are rapid and inexpensive and thus have been investigated for such purposes. A slightly more expensive approach based on short-term animal studies with toxicogenomics (TGx) represents another attractive option for this application. Thus, the primary questions are how much better predictive performance using short-term TGx models can be achieved compared to that of QSAR models, and what length of exposure is sufficient for high quality prediction based on TGx. In this study, we developed predictive models for rodent liver carcinogenicity using gene expression data generated from short-term animal models at different time points and QSAR. The study was focused on the prediction of nongenotoxic carcinogenicity since the genotoxic chemicals can be inexpensively removed from further development using various in vitro assays individually or in combination. We identified 62 chemicals whose hepatocarcinogenic potential was available from the National Center for Toxicological Research liver cancer database (NCTRlcdb). The gene expression profiles of liver tissue obtained from rats treated with these chemicals at different time points (1 day, 3 days, and 5 days) are available from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Both TGx and QSAR models were developed on the basis of the same set of chemicals using the same modeling approach, a nearest-centroid method with a minimum redundancy and maximum relevancy-based feature selection with performance assessed using compound-based 5-fold cross-validation. We found that the TGx models outperformed QSAR in every aspect of modeling. For example, the TGx models' predictive accuracy (0.77, 0.77, and 0.82 for the 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day models, respectively) was much higher for an independent validation set than that of a QSAR model (0.55). Permutation tests confirmed the statistical significance of the model's prediction performance. The study concluded that a short-term 5-day TGx animal model holds the potential to predict nongenotoxic hepatocarcinogenicity.     

A comprehensive model for reproductive and developmental toxicity hazard identification: II. Construction of QSAR models to predict activities of untested chemicals

This report describes the construction, optimization and validation of a battery of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to predict reproductive and developmental (reprotox) hazards of untested chemicals. These models run with MC4PC software to predict seven general reprotox classes: male and female reproductive toxicity, fetal dysmorphogenesis, functional toxicity, mortality, growth, and newborn behavioral toxicity. The reprotox QSARs incorporate a weight of evidence paradigm using rats, mice, and rabbit reprotox study data and are designed to identify trans-species reprotoxicants. The majority of the reprotox QSARs exhibit good predictive performance properties: high specificity (>80%), low false positives (<20%), significant receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values (>2.00), and high coverage (>80%) in 10% leave-many-out validation experiments. The QSARs are based on 627-2023 chemicals and exhibited a wide applicability domain for FDA regulated organic chemicals for which they were designed. Experiments were also performed using the MC4PC multiple module prediction technology, and ROC statistics, and adjustments to the ratio of active to inactive (A/I ratio) chemicals in training data sets were made to optimize the predictive performance of QSAR models. Results revealed that an A/I ratio of approximately 40% was optimal for MC4PC. We discuss specific recommendations for the application of the reprotox QSAR battery.     

On the use of the metric rm² as an effective tool for validation of QSAR models in computational drug design and predictive toxicology

Validation of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models plays a key role for the selection of robust and predictive models that may be employed for further activity prediction of new molecules. Traditionally, QSAR models are validated based on classical metrics for internal (Q2) and external validation (R2 pred). Recently, it has been shown that for data sets with wide range of the response variable, these traditional metrics tend to achieve high values without truly reflecting absolute differences between the observed and predicted response values, as in both cases the reference for comparison of the predicted residuals is the deviations of the observed values from the training set mean. Roy et al. have recently developed a new parameter, modified r2 (rm2), which considers the actual difference between the observed and predicted response data without consideration of training set mean thereby serving as a more stringent measure for assessment of model predictivity compared to the traditional validation parameters (Q2 and R2 pred). The rm2 parameter has three different variants: (i) rm2 (LOO) for internal validation, (ii) rm2 (test) for external validation and (iii) rm2 (overall) for analyzing the overall performance of the developed model considering predictions for both internal and external validation sets. Thus, the rm2 metrics strictly judge the ability of a QSAR model to predict the activity/toxicity of untested molecules. The present review provides a survey of the development of different rm2 metrics followed by their applications in modeling studies for selection of the best QSAR models in different reports made by several workers.     

Identification of putative estrogen receptor-mediated endocrine disrupting chemicals using QSAR- and structure-based virtual screening approaches

Identification of endocrine disrupting chemicals is one of the important goals of environmental chemical hazard screening. We report on the development of validated in silico predictors of chemicals likely to cause estrogen receptor (ER)-mediated endocrine disruption to facilitate their prioritization for future screening. A database of relative binding affinity of a large number of ERα and/or ERβ ligands was assembled (546 for ERα and 137 for ERβ). Both single-task learning (STL) and multi-task learning (MTL) continuous quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed for predicting ligand binding affinity to ERα or ERβ. High predictive accuracy was achieved for ERα binding affinity (MTL R² = 0.71, STL R² = 0.73). For ERβ binding affinity, MTL models were significantly more predictive (R² = 0.53, p < 0.05) than STL models. In addition, docking studies were performed on a set of ER agonists/antagonists (67 agonists and 39 antagonists for ERα, 48 agonists and 32 antagonists for ERβ, supplemented by putative decoys/non-binders) using the following ER structures (in complexes with respective ligands) retrieved from the Protein Data Bank: ERα agonist (PDB ID: 1L2I), ERα antagonist (PDB ID: 3DT3), ERβ agonist (PDB ID: 2NV7), and ERβ antagonist (PDB ID: 1L2J). We found that all four ER conformations discriminated their corresponding ligands from presumed non-binders. Finally, both QSAR models and ER structures were employed in parallel to virtually screen several large libraries of environmental chemicals to derive a ligand- and structure-based prioritized list of putative estrogenic compounds to be used for in vitro and in vivo experimental validation.