Chest pain for coronary heart disease in general practice: clinical judgement and a clinical decision rule

Background

The Marburg Heart Score (MHS) is a simple, valid, and robust clinical decision rule assisting GPs in ruling out coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients presenting with chest pain.

Aim

To investigate whether using the rule adds to the GP’s clinical judgement.

Design and setting

A comparative diagnostic accuracy study was conducted using data from 832 consecutive patients with chest pain in general practice.

Method

Three diagnostic strategies were defined using the MHS: diagnosis based solely on the MHS; using the MHS as a triage test; and GP’s clinical judgement aided by the MHS. Their accuracy was compared with the GPs’ unaided clinical judgement.

Results

Sensitivity and specificity of the GPs’ unaided clinical judgement was 82.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 72.4 to 89.9) and 61.0% (95% CI = 56.7 to 65.2), respectively. In comparison, the sensitivity of the MHS was higher (difference 8.5%, 95% CI = −2.4 to 19.6) and the specificity was similar (difference −0.4%, 95% CI = −5.3 to 4.5); the sensitivity of the triage was similar (difference −1.5%, 95% CI = −9.8 to 7.0) and the specificity was higher (difference 11.6%, 95% CI = 7.8 to 15.4); and both the sensitivity and specificity of the aided clinical judgement were higher (difference 8.0%, 95% CI = −6.9 to 23.0 and 5.8%, 95% CI = −1.6 to 13.2, respectively).

Conclusion

Using the Marburg Heart Score for initial triage can improve the clinical diagnosis of CHD in general practice.     

Accuracy of symptoms and signs for coronary heart disease assessed in primary care

Background

Diagnosing the aetiology of chest pain is challenging. There is still a lack of data on the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms for acute coronary events in low-prevalence settings.

Aim

To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs in patients presenting to general practice with chest pain.

Design of study

Cross-sectional diagnostic study with delayed-type reference standard.

Setting

Seventy-four general practices in Germany.

Method

The study included 1249 consecutive patients presenting with chest pain. Data were reviewed by an independent reference panel, with coronary heart disease (CHD) and an indication for urgent hospital admission as reference conditions. Main outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, predictive value, and odds ratio (OR) for non-trauma patients with a reference diagnosis.

Results

Several signs and symptoms showed strong associations with CHD, including known vascular disease (OR = 5.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.83 to 9.30), pain worse on exercise (OR = 4.27; 95% CI = 2.31 to 7.88), patient assumes cardiac origin of pain (OR = 3.20; 95% CI = 1.53 to 6.60), cough present (OR = 0.08; 95% CI = 0.01 to 0.77), and pain reproducible on palpation (OR = 0.27; 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.56). For urgent hospital admission, effective criteria included pain radiating to the left arm (OR = 8.81; 95% CI = 2.58 to 30.05), known clinical vascular disease (OR = 7.50; 95% CI = 2.88 to 19.55), home visit requested (OR = 7.31; 95% CI = 2.27 to 23.57), and known heart failure (OR = 3.53; 95% CI = 1.14 to 10.96).

Conclusion

Although individual criteria were only moderately effective, in combination they can help to decide about further management of patients with chest pain in primary care.     

Quantifying the risk of multiple myeloma from symptoms reported in primary care patients: a large case–control study using electronic records

Background

Patients with myeloma experience the longest diagnostic delays compared with patients with other cancers in the UK; 37% are diagnosed through emergency presentations.

Aim

To identify and quantify the risk of myeloma from specific clinical features reported by primary care patients.

Design and setting

Matched case–control study using General Practice Research Database primary care electronic records.

Method

Putative clinical features of myeloma were identified and analysed using conditional logistic regression. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated for the consulting population.

Results

A total of 2703 patients aged ≥40 years, diagnosed with myeloma between 2000 and 2009, and 12 157 age, sex, and general practice-matched controls were identified. Sixteen features were independently associated with myeloma: hypercalcaemia, odds ratio 11.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.1 to 18), cytopenia 5.4 (95% CI = 4.6 to 6.4), raised inflammatory markers 4.9 (95% CI = 4.2 to 5.8), fracture 3.1 (95% CI = 2.3 to 4.2), raised mean corpuscular volume 3.1 (95% CI = 2.4 to 4.1), weight loss 3.0 (95% CI = 2.0 to 4.5), nosebleeds 3.0 (95% CI = 1.9 to 4.7), rib pain 2.5 (95% CI = 1.5 to 4.4), back pain 2.2 (95% CI = 2.0 to 2.4), other bone pain 2.1 (95% CI = 1.4 to 3.1), raised creatinine 1.8 (95% CI = 1.5 to 2.2), chest pain 1.6 (95% CI = 1.4 to 1.8), joint pain 1.6 (95% CI = 1.2 to 2.2), nausea 1.5 (95% CI = 1.1 to 2.1), chest infection 1.4 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.6), and shortness of breath 1.3 (95% CI = 1.1 to 1.5). Individual symptom PPVs were generally <1%, although were >10% for some symptoms when combined with leucopenia or hypercalcaemia.

Conclusion

Individual symptoms of myeloma in primary care are generally low risk, probably explaining diagnostic delays. Once simple primary care blood tests are taken, risk estimates change. Hypercalcaemia and leucopenia are particularly important abnormalities, and coupled with symptoms, strongly suggest myeloma.     

Chest pain without established ischaemic heart disease in primary care patients: associated comorbidities and mortality

Background

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) can be excluded in the majority of patients with unspecific chest pain. The remainder have what is generally referred to as non-cardiac chest pain, which has been associated with gastrointestinal, neuromusculoskeletal, pulmonary, and psychiatric causes.

Aim

To assess morbidity and mortality following a new diagnosis of non-specific chest pain in patients without established IHD.

Design of study

Population-based cohort study with nested case-control analysis.

Setting

UK primary care practices contributing to the General Practice Research Database.

Method

Patients aged 20–79 years with chest pain who had had no chest pain consultation before 2000 and no IHD diagnosis before 2000 or within 2 weeks after the index date were selected from the General Practice Research Database. The selected 3028 patients and matched controls were followed-up for 1 year.

Results

The incidence of chest pain in patients without established IHD was 12.7 per 1000 person-years. In the year following the index date, patients who had chest pain but did not have established IHD were more likely than controls to receive a first IHD diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 18.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 11.6 to 28.6) or to die (HR = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.3 to 4.1). Patients with chest pain commonly had a history of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD; odds ratio [OR] = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.5 to 2.7) or went on to be diagnosed with GORD (risk ratio 4.5, 95% CI = 3.1 to 6.4).

Conclusion

Patients with chest pain but without established IHD were found to have an increased risk of being diagnosed with IHD. Chest pain in patients without established IHD was also commonly associated with GORD.     

Development and validation of the Molluscum Contagiosum Diagnostic Tool for Parents: diagnostic accuracy study in primary care

Background

Molluscum contagiosum (MC) is diagnosed by its distinct appearance. Parental diagnosis of MC may reduce anxiety and lead to reductions in healthcare consultations, and may be particularly useful in large-scale epidemiological studies. However, there are currently no published, validated tools allowing parental diagnosis of MC.

Aim

To develop and validate a tool for parental diagnosis of MC.

Design and setting

The Molluscum Contagiosum Diagnostic Tool for Parents (MCDTP) was developed and its diagnostic accuracy was compared with GP diagnosis in 12 GP surgeries in South Wales.

Method

Following development, which involved three phases with dermatologists, nurses, GPs, and parents, parents completed the MCDTP (index test) in the practice waiting room, and rated their confidence in their diagnosis. A GP then examined their child for MC (reference test). Test characteristics were calculated for all responders and for those who expressed being confident or very confident in their diagnosis.

Results

A total of 203 parents completed the MCDTP. The MCDTP showed a sensitivity of 91.5% (95% confidence intervals (CI) = 81.3 to 97.2) and a specificity of 88.2% (95% CI = 81.8 to 93.0) in all parents and a sensitivity of 95.8% (95% CI = 85.7 to 99.5) and a specificity of 90.9% (95% CI = 83.9 to 95.6) in parents who were confident or very confident in their diagnosis. The positive predictive value was 76.1% (95% CI = 64.5 to 85.4) and negative predictive value was 96.2% (95% CI = 91.4 to 98.8) for all parents.

Conclusion

The MCDTP performed well compared with GP diagnosis and is suitable for clinical use by parents and in population-based studies.     

The diagnostic value of symptoms for colorectal cancer in primary care: a systematic review

Background

Over 37 000 new colorectal cancers are diagnosed in the UK each year. Most present symptomatically to primary care.

Aim

To conduct a systematic review of the diagnostic value of symptoms associated with colorectal cancer.

Design

Systematic review.

Method

MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and CINAHL were searched to February 2010, for diagnostic studies of symptomatic adult patients in primary care. Studies of asymptomatic patients, screening, referred populations, or patients with colorectal cancer recurrences, or with fewer than 100 participants were excluded. The target condition was colorectal cancer. Data were extracted to estimate the diagnostic performance of each symptom or pair of symptoms. Data were pooled in a meta-analysis. The quality of studies was assessed with the QUADAS tool.

Results

Twenty-three studies were included. Positive predictive values (PPVs) for rectal bleeding from 13 papers ranged from 2.2% to 16%, with a pooled estimate of 8.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.0% to 11%) in those aged ≥50 years. Pooled PPV estimates for other symptoms were: abdominal pain (three studies) 3.3% (95% CI = 0.7% to 16%); and anaemia (four studies) 9.7% (95% CI = 3.5% to 27%). For rectal bleeding accompanied by weight loss or change in bowel habit, pooled positive likelihood ratios (PLRs) were 1.9 (95% CI = 1.3 to 2.8) and 1.8 (95% CI = 1.3 to 2.5) respectively, suggesting higher risk when both symptoms were present. Conversely, the PLR was one or less for abdominal pain, diarrhoea, or constipation accompanying rectal bleeding.

Conclusion

The findings suggest that investigation of rectal bleeding or anaemia in primary care patients is warranted, irrespective of whether other symptoms are present. The risks from other single symptoms are lower, though multiple symptoms also warrant investigation.     

Predictive values of GPs’ suspicion of serious disease: a population-based follow-up study

Background

Knowledge is sparse on the prevalence of suspicion of cancer and other serious diseases in general practice. Likewise, little is known about the possible implications of this suspicion on future healthcare use and diagnoses.

Aim

To study the prevalence of GPs’ suspicions of cancer or other serious diseases and analyse how this suspicion predicted the patients’ healthcare use and diagnoses of serious disease.

Design and setting

Prospective population-based cohort study of 4518 patients consulting 404 GPs in a mix of urban, semi-urban and rural practices in Central Denmark Region during 2008–2009.

Method

The GPs registered consultations in 1 work day, including information on their suspicion of the presence of cancer or another serious disease. The patients were followed up for use of healthcare services and new diagnoses through the use of national registers.

Results

Prevalence of suspicion was 5.7%. Suspicion was associated with an increase in referrals (prevalence ratio [PR] = 2.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.22 to 2.96), especially for diagnostic imaging (PR = 3.95, 95% CI = 2.80 to 5.57), increased risk of a new diagnosis of cancer or another serious disease within 2 months (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.98, 95% CI = 1.93 to 4.62) — especially for cancer (HR = 7.55, 95% CI = 2.66 to 21.39) — and increased use of general practice (relative risk [RR] = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.24) and hospital visits (RR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.62 to 2.23). The positive predictive value of a GP suspicion was 9.8% (95% CI = 6.4 to 14.1) for cancer or another serious disease within 2 months.

Conclusion

A GP suspicion of serious disease warrants further investigation, and the organisation of the healthcare system should ensure direct access from the primary sector to specialised tests.     

Quantifying the risk of Hodgkin lymphoma in symptomatic primary care patients aged ≥40 years: a case–control study using electronic records

Background

In the UK, approximately five people are diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) daily. One-tenth of diagnoses are in those aged >75 years.

Aim

To establish a symptom profile of HL and quantify their risk in primary care patients aged ≥40 years.

Design and setting

Matched case–control study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink patient records.

Method

Putative clinical features of HL were identified in the year before diagnosis. Results were analysed using conditional logistic regression and positive predictive values (PPVs) calculated for the consulting population.

Results

Two-hundred and eighty-three patients aged ≥40 years, diagnosed with HL between 2000 and 2009, and 1237 age, sex, and general practice-matched participants were studied. Six features were independently associated with HL: lymphadenopathy (OR 280, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 25 to 3100), head and neck mass not described as lymphadenopathy (OR 260, 95% CI = 21 to 3200), other mass (OR 12, 95% CI = 4.4 to 35), thrombocytosis (OR 6.0, 95% CI = 2.6 to 14), raised inflammatory markers (OR 5.2, 95% CI = 3.0 to 9.0), and low full blood count (OR 2.8, 95% CI = 1.6 to 4.8). Lymphadenopathy per se has a positive predictive value (PPV) of 5.6% for HL in patients aged ≥60 years.

Conclusion

Consistent with secondary care findings, lymphadenopathy is the clinical feature with the highest risk of HL in primary care and warrants urgent investigation.     

Diagnostic value of symptoms of oesophagogastric cancers in primary care: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Selection of primary care patients for investigation of potential oesophagogastric cancer is difficult, as the symptoms may represent benign conditions, which are also more common.

Aim

To review systematically the presenting features of oesophagogastric cancers in primary care, including open-access endoscopy clinics.

Design and setting

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Method

MEDLINE^®, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and CINAHL were searched for studies of adults who were symptomatic and presented in primary care or open-access endoscopy clinics. Exclusions were being asymptomatic, screening, or recurrent cancers. Data were extracted to estimate the diagnostic performance of features of oesophagogastric cancers and summarised in a meta-analysis.

Results

Fourteen studies were identified. The strongest summary sensitivity and specificity estimates were for: dyspepsia 0.42 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29 to 0.56) and 0.48 (95% CI = 0.31 to 0.65); pain 0.41 (95% CI = 0.24 to 0.62) and 0.75 (95% CI = 0.51 to 0.89); and dysphagia 0.32 (95% CI = 0.17 to 0.52) and 0.92 (95% CI = 0.81 to 0.97). Summary positive likelihood ratios (LR+) and diagnostic odds ratios were: dyspepsia 0.79 (95% CI = 0.55 to 1.15) and 0.65 (95% CI = 0.32 to 1.33); pain 1.64 (95% CI = 1.20 to 2.24) and 2.09 (95% CI = 1.57 to 2.77); and dysphagia 4.32 (95% CI = 2.46 to 7.58) and 5.91 (95% CI = 3.56 to 9.82). Corresponding LR+ were: anaemia 4.32 (95% CI = 2.64 to 7.08); nausea/vomiting/bloating 1.07 (95% CI = 0.52 to 2.19); reflux 0.78 (95% CI = 0.47 to 1.78) and; weight loss 5.46 (95% CI = 3.47 to 8.60).

Conclusion

Dysphagia, weight loss, and anaemia show the strongest association but with relatively low sensitivity and high specificity. The findings support the value of investigation of these symptoms, but also suggest that, in a population of patients who are low risk but not no-risk, investigation is not currently recommended.     

Are alarm symptoms predictive of cancer survival?: Population-based cohort study

Background

Alarm symptom presentations are predictive of cancer diagnosis but may also be associated with cancer survival.

Aim

To evaluate diagnostic time intervals, and consultation patterns after presentation with alarm symptoms, and their association with cancer diagnosis and survival.

Design and setting

Cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Database, with linked Cancer Registry data, in 158 general practices.

Method

Participants included those with haematuria, haemoptysis, dysphagia, and rectal bleeding or urinary tract cancer, lung cancer, gastro-oesophageal cancer, and colorectal cancer.

Results

The median (interquartile range) interval in days from first symptom presentation to the corresponding cancer diagnosis was: haematuria and urinary tract cancer, 59 (28–109); haemoptysis and lung cancer, 35 (18–89); dysphagia and gastro-oesophageal cancer, 25 (12–48); rectal bleeding and colorectal cancer, 49 (20–157). Three or more alarm symptom consultations were associated with increased odds of diagnosis of urinary tract cancer (odds ratio [OR] 1.84, 95% CI = 1.50 to 2.27), lung cancer (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.07 to 2.90) and gastro-oesophageal cancer (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.48 to 3.19). Longer diagnostic intervals were associated with increased mortality only for urinary tract cancer (hazard ratio 2.23, 95% CI = 1.35 to 3.69). Patients with no preceding alarm symptom had shorter survival from diagnosis of urinary tract, lung or colorectal cancer than those presenting with a relevant alarm symptom.

Conclusion

After alarm symptom presentation, repeat consultations are associated with cancer diagnoses. Longer diagnostic intervals appeared to be associated with a worse prognosis for urinary tract cancer only. Mortality is higher when cancer is diagnosed in the absence of alarm symptoms.     

Clinical features of kidney cancer in primary care: a case-control study using primary care records

Background

Kidney cancer accounts for over 4000 UK deaths annually, and is one of the cancer sites with a poor mortality record compared with Europe.

Aim

To identify and quantify all clinical features of kidney cancer in primary care.

Design

Case-control study, using General Practice Research Database records.

Method

A total of 3149 patients aged ≥40 years, diagnosed with kidney cancer between 2000 and 2009, and 14 091 age, sex and practice-matched controls, were selected. Clinical features associated with kidney cancer were identified, and analysed using conditional logistic regression. Positive predictive values for features of kidney cancer were estimated.

Results

Cases consulted more frequently than controls in the year before diagnosis: median 16 consultations (interquartile range 10–25) versus 8 (4–15): P<0.001. Fifteen features were independently associated with kidney cancer: visible haematuria, odds ratio 37 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 28 to 49), abdominal pain 2.8 (95% CI = 2.4 to 3.4), microcytosis 2.6 (95% CI = 1.9 to 3.4), raised inflammatory markers 2.4 (95% CI = 2.1 to 2.8), thrombocytosis 2.2 (95% CI = 1.7 to 2.7), low haemoglobin 1.9 (95% CI = 1.6 to 2.2), urinary tract infection 1.8 (95% CI = 1.5 to 2.1), nausea 1.8 (95% CI = 1.4 to 2.3), raised creatinine 1.7 (95% CI = 1.5 to 2.0), leukocytosis 1.5 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.9), fatigue 1.5 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.9), constipation 1.4 (95% CI = 1.1 to 1.7), back pain 1.4 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.7), abnormal liver function 1.3 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.5), and raised blood sugar 1.2 (95% CI = 1.1 to 1.4). The positive predictive value for visible haematuria in patients aged ≥60 years was 1.0% (95% CI = 0.8 to 1.3).

Conclusion

Visible haematuria is the commonest and most powerful single predictor of kidney cancer, and the risk rises when additional symptoms are present. When considered alongside the risk of bladder cancer, the overall risk of urinary tract cancer from haematuria warrants referral.     

Which early ‘red flag’ symptoms identify children with meningococcal disease in primary care?

Background

Symptoms are part of the initial evaluation of children with acute illness, and are often used to help identify those who may have serious infections. Meningococcal disease is a rapidly progressive infection that needs to be recognised early among children presenting to primary care.

Aim

To determine the diagnostic value of presenting symptoms in primary care for meningococcal disease.

Design of study

Data on a series of presenting symptoms were collected using a parental symptoms checklist at point of care for children presenting to a GP with acute infection. Symptom frequencies were compared with existing data on the pre-hospital features of 345 children with meningococcal disease.

Setting

UK primary care.

Method

The study recruited a total of 1212 children aged under 16 years presenting to their GP with an acute illness, of whom 924 had an acute self-limiting infection, including 407 who were reported by parents to be febrile. Symptom frequencies were compared with those reported by parents of 345 children with meningococcal disease. Main outcome measures were diagnostic characteristics of individual symptoms for meningococcal disease.

Results

Five symptoms have clinically useful positive likelihood ratios (LR+) for meningococcal disease: confusion (LR+ = 24.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 11.5 to 51.3), leg pain (LR+ = 7.6, 95% CI = 4.9 to 11.9), photophobia (LR+ = 6.5, 95% CI = 3.8 to 11.0), rash (LR+ = 5.5, 95% CI = 4.3 to 7.1), and neck pain/stiffness (LR+ = 5.3, 95% CI = 3.5 to 8.3). Cold hands and feet had limited diagnostic value (LR+ = 2.3, 95% CI = 1.9 to 3.0), while headache (LR+ = 1.0, 95% CI = 0.8 to 1.3), and pale colour (LR+ = 0.3, 95% CI = 0.2 to 0.5) did not discriminate meningococcal disease in children.

Conclusion

This study confirms the diagnostic value of classic ‘red flag’ symptoms of neck stiffness, rash, and photophobia, but also suggests that the presence of confusion or leg pain in a child with an unexplained acute febrile illness should also usually prompt a face-to-face assessment to exclude meningococcal disease. Telephone triage systems and primary care clinicians should consider these as ‘red flags’ for serious infection.     

Whole Blood Interferon-γ Release Assay Is Insufficient for the Diagnosis of Sputum Smear Negative Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Purpose

We investigated the value of an interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) for the diagnosis of active pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) among sputum smear negative PTB suspects in an environment with intermediate burden of PTB and high Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination rate.

Materials and Methods

We retrospectively reviewed IGRA, medical records, chest PA and CT scan of PTB suspects seen at Gangnam Severance Hospital, Seoul, Korea from Oct. 2007 to Apr. 2013. "Active PTB" was diagnosed when 1) M. tuberculosis culture positive, 2) confirmation by pathologic examination; or 3) clinical findings compatible with TB.

Results

Of 224 sputum smear negative PTB suspects, 94 were confirmed as having active PTB. There were no statistically significant differences in the diagnostic yield of IGRA between immunocompromised and immunocompetent sputum smear negative PTB suspects. IGRA did show superior sensitivity [81.9%, 95% confidence interval (CI); 74.13-89.70%] in the diagnosis of sputum smear negative PTB when compared with chest high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT), tuberculin skin test (TST), and chest X-ray (p<0.001). Also, IGRA showed highest negative predictive value (82.7%, 95% CI; 75.16-90.15%) when compared with HRCT, TST and chest X-ray (p=0.023). However, combining the results of IGRA with those of HRCT, TST, or both did not increase any diagnostic parameters.

Conclusion

Failure to increase diagnostic yields by combination with other diagnostic modalities suggests that additional enforcement with IGRA may be insufficient to exclude other diagnoses in sputum smear negative PTB suspects and to screen active PTB in an environment with intermediate TB prevalence and a high BCG vaccination rate.     

Reducing the time before consulting with symptoms of lung cancer: a randomised controlled trial in primary care

Background

Most individuals with lung cancer have symptoms for several months before presenting to their GP. Earlier consulting may improve survival.

Aim

To evaluate whether a theory-based primary care intervention increased timely consulting of individuals with symptoms of lung cancer.

Design and setting

Open randomised controlled trial comparing intervention with usual care in two general practices in north-east Scotland.

Method

Smokers and ex-smokers aged ≥55 years were randomised to receive a behavioural intervention or usual care. The intervention comprised a single nurse consultation at participants’ general practice and a self-help manual. The main outcomes were consultations within target times for individuals with new chest symptoms (≤3 days haemoptysis, ≤3 weeks other symptoms) in the year after the intervention commenced, and intentions about consulting with chest symptoms at 1 and 6 months.

Results

Two hundred and twelve participants were randomised and 206 completed the trial. The consultation rate for new chest symptoms in the intervention group was 1.19 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.92 to 1.53; P = 0.18) times higher than in the usual-care group and the proportion of consultations within the target time was 1.11 (95% CI = 0.41 to 3.03; P = 0.83) times higher. One month after the intervention commenced, the intervention group reported intending to consult with chest symptoms 31 days (95% CI = 7 to 54; P = 0.012) earlier than the usual care group, and at 6 months this was 25 days (95% CI = 1.5 to 48; P = 0.037) earlier.

Conclusion

Behavioural intervention in primary care shortened the time individuals at high risk of lung disease intended to take before consulting with new chest symptoms (the secondary outcome of the study), but increases in consultation rates and the proportions of consultations within target times were not statistically significant.     

Clinical presentation and microbiological diagnosis in paediatric respiratory tract infection: a systematic review

Background

Antibiotic prescribing decisions for respiratory tract infection (RTI) in primary care could be improved if clinicians could target bacterial infections. However, there are currently no evidence-based diagnostic rules to identify microbial aetiology in children presenting with acute RTIs.

Aim

To analyse evidence of associations between clinical symptoms or signs and detection of microbes from the upper respiratory tract (URT) of children with acute cough.

Design and setting

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Method

A literature search identified articles reporting relationships between individual symptoms and/or signs, and microbes detected from URT samples. Associations between pathogens and symptoms or signs were summarised, and meta-analysis conducted where possible.

Results

There were 9984 articles identified, of which 28 met inclusion criteria. Studies identified 30 symptoms and 41 signs for 23 microbes, yielding 1704 potential associations, of which only 226 (13%) have presently been investigated. Of these, relevant statistical analyses were presented for 175 associations, of which 25% were significant. Meta-analysis demonstrated significant relationships between respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) detection and chest retractions (pooled odds ratio [OR] 1.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6 to 2.3), wheeze (pooled OR 1.7, 95% CI = 1.5 to 2.0), and crepitations/crackles (pooled OR 1.7, 95% CI = 1.3 to 2.2).

Conclusions

There was an absence of evidence for URT pathogens other than RSV. The meta-analysis identified clinical signs associated with RSV detection, suggesting clinical presentation may offer some, albeit poor, diagnostic value. Further research is urgently needed to establish the value of symptoms and signs in determining microbiological aetiology and improve targeting of antibiotics in primary care.     

Validity of British Thoracic Society guidance (the CRB-65 rule) for predicting the severity of pneumonia in general practice: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The CRB-65 score is a clinical prediction rule that grades the severity of community-acquired pneumonia in terms of 30-day mortality.

Aim

The study sought to validate CRB-65 and assess its clinical value in community and hospital settings.

Design of study

Systematic review and meta-analysis of validation studies of CRB-65.

Method

Medline (1966 to June 2009), Embase (1988 to November 2008), British Nursing Index (BNI) and PsychINFO were searched, using a diagnostic accuracy search filter combined with subject-specific terms. The derived (index) rule was used as a predictive model and applied to all validation studies. Comparison was made between the observed and predicted number of deaths stratified by risk group (low, intermediate, and high) and setting of care (community or hospital). Pooled results are presented as risk ratios (RRs) in terms of over-prediction (RR>1) or under-prediction (RR<1) of 30-day mortality.

Results

Fourteen validation studies totalling 397 875 patients are included. CRB-65 performs well in hospitalised patients, particularly in those classified as intermediate (RR 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.71 to 1.17) or high risk (RR 1.01, 95% CI = 0.87 to 1.16). In community settings, CRB-65 over-predicts the probability of 30-day mortality across all strata of predicted risk, low (RR 9.41, 95% CI = 1.75 to 50.66), intermediate (RR 4.84, 95% CI = 2.61 to 8.69), and high (RR 1.58, 95% CI = 0.59 to 4.19).

Conclusion

CRB-65 performs well in stratifying severity of pneumonia and resultant 30-day mortality in hospital settings. In community settings, CRB-65 appears to over-predict the probability of 30-day mortality across all strata of predicted risk. Caution is needed when applying CRB-65 to patients in general practice.     

Quantifying the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in symptomatic primary care patients aged ≥40 years: a large case–control study using electronic records

Background

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is the sixth most common cancer in the UK; approximately 35 people are diagnosed and 13 die from the disease daily.

Aim

To identify the primary care clinical features of NHL and quantify their risk in symptomatic patients.

Design and setting

Matched case–control study using Clinical Practice Research Datalink patient records.

Method

Putative clinical features of NHL were identified in the year before diagnosis. Results were analysed using conditional logistic regression and positive predictive values (PPVs).

Results

A total of 4362 patients aged ≥40 years, diagnosed with NHL between 2000 and 2009, and 19 468 age, sex, and general practice-matched controls were studied. Twenty features were independently associated with NHL. The five highest risk symptoms were lymphadenopathy, odds ratio (OR) 263 (95% CI = 133 to 519), head and neck mass not described as lymphadenopathy OR 49 (95% CI = 32 to 74), other mass OR 12 (95% CI = 10 to 16), weight loss OR 3.2 (95% CI = 2.3 to 4.4), and abdominal pain OR 2.5 (95% CI = 2.1 to 2.9). Lymphadenopathy has a PPV of 13% for NHL in patients ≥60 years. Weight loss in conjunction with repeated back pain or raised gamma globulin had PPVs >2%.

Conclusion

Unexplained lymphadenopathy in patients aged ≥60 years produces a very high risk of NHL in primary care. These patients warrant urgent investigation, potentially sooner than 6 weeks from initial presentation where the GP is particularly concerned.     

Undetected chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma in people over 50 years with persistent cough

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are underdiagnosed in primary care.

Aim

To determine how often COPD or asthma are present in middle-aged and older patients who consult their GP for persistent cough.

Design of study

A cross-sectional study in 353 patients older than 50 years, visiting their GP for persistent cough and not known to have COPD or asthma.

Setting

General practice in the Netherlands.

Method

All participants underwent extensive diagnostic work-up, including symptoms, signs, spirometry, and body plethysmography. All results were studied by an expert panel to diagnose or exclude COPD and/or asthma. The reproducibility of the panel diagnosis was assessed by calculation of Cohen''s κ statistic in a sample of 41 participants.

Results

Of the 353 participants, 102 (29%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 24 to 34%) were diagnosed with COPD. In 14 of these 102 participants, both COPD and asthma were diagnosed (4%, 95% CI = 2 to 7%). Asthma (without COPD) was diagnosed in 23 (7%, 95% CI = 4 to 10%) participants. Mean duration of cough was 93 days (median 40 days). The reproducibility of the expert panel was good (Cohen''s κ = 0.90).

Conclusion

In patients aged over 50 years who consult their GP for persistent cough, undetected COPD or asthma is frequently present.