The Psychosocial Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Chronic Care Patients

ObjectivesThe COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound and pervasive impact on psychosocial health and disrupted care systems world-wide. Our research aims to assess the psychosocial impact of the pandemic and related changes in chronic care provision on patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and heart failure.DesignA qualitative survey using semi-structured interviews was held among patients with COPD and heart failure.Setting and ParticipantsUsing randomized sampling, 23 patients with COPD, heart failure, or both were recruited to participate in semi-structured interviews. Interviews were held by phone or videocall. The survey was held during the summer of 2021, when strict national containment strategies were widely implemented but gradually loosened and vaccination was ongoing.MethodsInductive coding using Gioia's approach was used to analyze the data in Atlas.Ti 9.1 software. Using an iterative approach, the data were synthesized in a data structure and data table, which was analyzed using an interpretative approach.ResultsWe found 3 aggregate dimensions in which the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative impact on psychosocial health of patients with chronic disease: (1) perceived vulnerability to disease, (2) influence of health policy, and (3) a mismatch of supply and demand of health care. In these dimensions, the impact of the COVID-19 crisis was found to have a negative impact on psychosocial well-being, compounded by national strategies to contain the pandemic and a disruption of chronic care for patients.Conclusions and ImplicationsHealth care providers should be aware of a multidimensional nature of psychosocial distress for chronic disease patients due to the COVID-19 crisis. Future practice and health policy could be improved by increasing awareness among health care providers, promote regular attention for psychosocial well-being of patients, provision of clear information related to the pandemic, and strategies to secure continuity of care. Results of this study might be further explored in larger studies.     

Facilitators and barriers to TB care during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND:Knowledge about factors influencing access and adherence to TB care, and on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB care in resource-restricted settings is scarce. We conducted this study in Atsimo-Andrefana, a rural region in southern Madagascar where TB prevalence, poverty and food insecurity rates are high. We aimed to determine facilitators and barriers to access to and provision of TB care in rural Madagascar during the COVID-19 pandemic.METHODS:We conducted qualitative focus group discussions (FGDs) and in-depth interviews (IDIs) with patients with TB, community health workers, facility-based health workers, public health officials and non-governmental organisation staff. We analysed interviews using thematic analysis.RESULTS:We conducted 11 FGDs and 23 IDIs. We identified three main barriers to access and adherence to TB care: 1) stigma, 2) indirect treatment costs, and 3) food insecurity. The facilitator perceived as most influential was high health worker motivation. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB care varied between stake-holders; some health workers described delays in TB diagnosis and increased workload.CONCLUSIONS:To improve access and adherence to TB care, both indirect treatment costs and stigma need to be reduced; undernourished patients with TB should receive food support.     

Repercusiones del confinamiento por COVID-19 en pacientes crónicos de Andalucía

ObjectiveTo understand the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown on the self-care of people living with chronic diseases and on their self-perceived health, and to identify factors that may influence the management of their disease in emergency situations.MethodA qualitative study conducted in 2020 (March and April) in Andalusia (Spain) during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, through virtual focus groups, using the Zoom telematics tool. Three virtual focus groups were conducted, including 34 patients from Andalusia with different chronic conditions such as arthritis, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, inflammatory bowel disease, breast cancer and fibromyalgia.ResultsPeople with chronic diseases reported effects of the lockdown in relation to their emotional experience, their coping resources, the information they received, the difficulties to manage self-care, and the contact or access to health services. They also suggested some lessons learned for the future. The need for more and better information, patient training, involving patient associations, and improving telematics access to health services are the main areas for improvement to minimize the impact of future quarantines on the self-care and the health of people with chronic diseases.ConclusionsBesides the risk of contracting COVID-19, the difficulties encountered by people with chronic diseases during the lockdown include interferences in the self-care and the health care received. Health crisis situations demand more information, training for patients and improvements in the health services accessibility for patients with chronic conditions.     

Leveraging Informatics and Technology to Support Public Health Response: Framework and Illustrations using COVID-19

ObjectiveTo develop a conceptual model and novel, comprehensive framework that encompass the myriad ways informatics and technology can support public health response to a pandemic.MethodThe conceptual model and framework categorize informatics solutions that could be used by stakeholders (e.g., government, academic institutions, healthcare providers and payers, life science companies, employers, citizens) to address public health challenges across the prepare, respond, and recover phases of a pandemic, building on existing models for public health operations and response.ResultsMapping existing solutions, technology assets, and ideas to the framework helped identify public health informatics solution requirements and gaps in responding to COVID-19 in areas such as applied science, epidemiology, communications, and business continuity. Two examples of technologies used in COVID-19 illustrate novel applications of informatics encompassed by the framework. First, we examine a hub from The Weather Channel, which provides COVID-19 data via interactive maps, trend graphs, and details on case data to individuals and businesses. Second, we examine IBM Watson Assistant for Citizens, an AI-powered virtual agent implemented by healthcare providers and payers, government agencies, and employers to provide information about COVID-19 via digital and telephone-based interaction.DiscussionEarly results from these novel informatics solutions have been positive, showing high levels of engagement and added value across stakeholders.ConclusionThe framework supports development, application, and evaluation of informatics approaches and technologies in support of public health preparedness, response, and recovery during a pandemic. Effective solutions are critical to success in recovery from COVID-19 and future pandemics.     

Assessment of knowledge of COVID-19 among health care workers-a questionnaire-based cross-sectional study in a tertiary care hospital of India

BackgroundHealth Care Workers (HCW) are among the primary stakeholders and front liners in the fight against COVID-19. They are in direct contact with the patients as primary caregivers and, therefore, are at a higher risk of infection. This Pandemic offers a unique opportunity to explore the level of knowledge among ground-level HCWs during this global health crisis.ObjectiveWe conducted this study to assess the knowledge and awareness among HCW regarding the COVID-19 Pandemic in a tertiary care hospital.MethodsIt was a cross-sectional study done on HCW comprising faculty, senior residents, junior residents, demonstrators, and nursing staff of various specialties directly involved in the care of suspected/confirmed COVID-19 patients. A pretested questionnaire consisting of 20 questions was used as a study tool and was circulated through the digital platform.ResultsThere were a total of 437 respondents. In the subgroup analysis, the respondents in the age group of 55–64 years had a higher mean knowledge score, followed by the respondents in the age group of 18–24 years. For years of experience, the mean knowledge score varied from 13.89 (10–20 years of experience) to 13.83 (5–10 years of experience). The mean knowledge score was the highest for consultants (14.10), followed by Resident Doctors (13.96).ConclusionsThis study has shed some critical clues for further research and interventions. Firstly, as health care workers are probably learning about COVID-19 from their practical exposure rather than formal teaching, it is pertinent to address this issue through well-planned formal sessions of training workshops and lectures.     

International experiences of the active period of COVID-19 - Mental health care

AimTo summarise commonalities and variations in the mental health response to COVID-19 across different sites and countries, with a view to better understanding key steps not only in crisis management, but for future systemic reform of mental health care.MethodWe conducted a Rapid Synthesis and Translation Process of lessons learned from an international panel of experts, collecting on the ground experiences of the pandemic as it evolved in real time. Digital conferencing and individual interviews were used to rapidly acquire knowledge on the COVID-19 outbreak across 16 locations in Australia, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Taiwan, the UK, and the USA.ResultsCOVID-19 has had massive impacts on mental health care internationally. Most systems were under-resourced and under-prepared, struggling to manage both existing and new clients. There were significant differences between sites, depending on the explosivity the pandemic and the readiness of the mental health system. Integrated, community mental health systems exhibited greater adaptability in contrast to services which depended on face-to-face and hospital-based care. COVID-19 has demonstrated the need for a new approach to rapid response to crisis in mental health. New decision support system tools are necessary to ensure local decision-makers can effectively respond to the enormous practical challenges posed in these circumstances.ConclusionsThe process we have undertaken has generated clear lessons for mental health policymakers worldwide, beyond pandemic planning and response to guide next steps in systemic mental health reform. Key here is achieving some balance between national leadership and local context adaptation of evidence.     

Understanding Micro-pantries as an Emergency Food Source During the COVID-19 Pandemic

ObjectiveTo explore the role of micro-pantries in addressing food insecurity during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.DesignQualitative interviews with 20 micro-pantry users and 10 stakeholders during April and May, 2020.SettingSix US states.ParticipantsUsers, aged ≥ 18 years, had obtained food from a micro-pantry in the past 2 weeks; stakeholders, aged ≥ 18 years, played a role in organizing micro-pantries at the community, regional, or national levels.Phenomena of InterestImpact of COVID-19 on food insecurity and use of micro-pantries to mitigate it; benefits of, suggested improvements to, and adoption and administration of micro-pantries.AnalysisWe transcribed the data verbatim and performed deductive qualitative content analysis.ResultsMicro-pantry users had increased their use of both micro-pantries and regular food pantries during the pandemic. Micro-pantries helped stretch resources. Users appreciated the anonymity and choice; the mutual aid aspects reduced stigma. Stakeholders described micro-pantries as providing a direct way for neighbors to help neighbors during the pandemic. They described a decentralized and informal system of administration.Conclusions and ImplicationsFindings suggest that micro-pantries provided a supplemental food source that supported the resilience of communities during the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Diagnosed with TB in the era of COVID-19: patient perspectives in Zambia

Introduction:Delayed TB diagnosis and treatment perpetuate the high burden of TB-related morbidity and mortality in resource-constrained settings. We explored the potential of COVID-19 to further compromise TB care engagement in Zambia.Methods:From April to May 2020, we purposefully selected 17 adults newly diagnosed with TB from three public health facilities in Lusaka, Zambia, for in-depth phone interviews. We conducted thematic analyses using a hybrid approach.Results:The majority of participants were highly concerned about the impact of lockdowns on their financial security. Most were not worried about being diagnosed with COVID-19 when seeking care for their illness because they felt unwell prior to the outbreak; however, they were very worried about contracting COVID-19 during clinic visits. COVID-19 was perceived as a greater threat than TB as it is highly transmittable and there is no treatment for it, which provoked fear of social isolation and of death among participants in case they contracted it. Nonetheless, participants reported willingness to continue with TB medication and the clinic visits required to improve their health.Conclusion:The COVID-19 pandemic did not appear to deter care-seeking for TB by patients. However, messaging on TB in the era of COVID-19 must encourage timely care-seeking by informing people of infection control measures taken at health facilities.     

A behavior change model to address caregiver hesitancy around COVID-19 vaccination in pediatrics

IntroductionMany families express hesitancy around immunizing their children against COVID-19. We sought to better understand the perspectives of vaccine hesitant caregivers, and develop targeted recommendations for health care workers and policymakers to engage in more effective vaccine discussions.MethodsWe conducted semi-structured telephone interviews with 23 caregivers recruited from a pediatric infectious diseases clinic, including a subset of patients referred to discuss vaccine hesitancy. Thematic analysis of the interviews identified themes that were mapped using behavior change models to identify perceived barriers and facilitators towards COVID-19 immunization.ResultsBarriers and facilitators were mapped to the WHO (World Health Organization) 3C’s (confidence, complacency, convenience) model of vaccine hesitancy as well as the COM-B (capability, opportunity, motivation) behavior change model. Barriers included mistrust in authorities, misperception of the risk of COVID-19 in children, and perceived health contraindications and negative previous vaccine experiences. Facilitators included positive relationships with healthcare workers, the promise of a “return to normal”, and societal pressures to immunize.ConclusionsEfforts to increase vaccine uptake in the pediatric population must target specific barriers and facilitators to immunization expressed by caregivers. To address these concerns, we suggest: 1. Educating hesitant caregivers by highlighting the long-term pandemic effects on children and the threat of COVID-19 to children’s health, 2. Building on the trust caregivers have in healthcare workers by involving frontline workers in public health policy, and 3. Harnessing the power of peer pressure by mobilization of societal pressures and establishing COVID-19 vaccination as the norm in children.     

Impact of COVID-19 on Structure and Function of Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) Sites in North Carolina

ObjectivesThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deeply affected all forms of long-term care for older adults, highlighting infection control issues, provider and staff shortages, and other challenges. As a comparatively new, community-based long-term care option, the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) faced unique challenges. This project investigated the impact of COVID-19 on operations in all PACE programs in one US state.DesignQualitative study.Setting and ParticipantsStructured interviews with administrators of all 12 PACE programs in North Carolina.MethodsInterviews were conducted December 2020 to January 2021 by trained interviewers over Zoom; they were transcribed, coded, and qualitatively analyzed using thematic analysis.ResultsReported COVID-19 infection rates among PACE participants for 2020 averaged 12.3 cases, 4.6 hospitalizations, and 1.9 deaths per 100 enrollees. Six themes emerged from analyses: new, unprecedented administrative challenges; insufficient access to and integration with other health care providers; reevaluation of the core PACE model, resulting in a transition to home-based care; reorientation to be more family-focused in care provision; implementation of new, creative strategies to address participant and family psychological and social well-being in the home; and major reconfiguration of staffing, including transitions to new and different roles and a concomitant effort to provide support and relief to staff.Conclusions and ImplicationsWhile facing many challenges that required major changes in care provision, PACE was successful in mounting a COVID-19 response that upheld safety, promoted the physical and mental well-being of participants, and responded to the needs of family caregivers. Administrators felt that, after the pandemic, the PACE service model is likely to remain more home-based and less reliant on the day center than in the past. As a result, PACE may have changed for the better and be well-positioned to play an expanded role in our evolving long-term care system.     

Perceived barriers and facilitators of structural reimbursement for remote patient monitoring,an exploratory qualitative study

ObjectiveStructural reimbursement can be an important factor for large-scale implementing and upscaling of remote patient monitoring (RPM). During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Dutch Healthcare Authority expanded regulations, creating novel opportunities to reimburse RPM. Despite these regulations, barriers to the reimbursement of RPM remain. This study aimed to identify the barriers and facilitators of structural reimbursement of RPM in hospital care in the Netherlands and to propose actionable recommendations.MethodsThis is an exploratory qualitative study with relevant stakeholders in the Dutch purchasing market: the Dutch Healthcare Authority, health insurers, and healthcare providers. Semi-structured interviews were held between October and December of 2020. All interviews were conducted using a digital medium, transcribed verbatim, and thematically analyzed.ResultsMultiple perceived barriers were mentioned: wrong pocket problems (i.e. the entity that bears the costs of implementation does not receive the benefits), no uniform quality and outcome indicators, lack of willingness to redesign care pathways by providers, and difficulties implementing cross-sector models. Perceived facilitators included interdisciplinary cooperation and transparency, the use of alternative payment models, increase in the total number of patients per RPM project, and the optional reimbursement scheme.ConclusionOur interviews found barriers and facilitators concerning structural reimbursement of RPM in hospital settings in the Netherlands. Our results emphasize that the successful integration of structural reimbursement requires: 1) understanding the improvement potential of RPM by creating business cases, 2) co-creation (redesigning care paths) from the outset of an RPM project, 3) and allocating financial risk by providers and insurers.Public Interest SummaryThe COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the strong potential of consultation and monitoring patients at a distance. Remote patient monitoring - the use of information technologies for monitoring patients at a distance - is seen as a potential solution to urgent challenges in the healthcare system. Nevertheless, embedding remote patient monitoring innovations into routine healthcare is often challenging, partly due to difficulties in reimbursing these initiatives. Barriers to reimbursing remote patient monitoring included organizational factors, no uniform quality and outcome indicators, and difficulties using different payment models. Perceived facilitators included an increase in the total number of patients per project, better interdisciplinary cooperation and transparency, and help from the Dutch Healthcare Authority. Introducing these insights into healthcare policy dialogues could support reimbursement of remote patient monitoring and stimulate the collaboration of healthcare stakeholders responsible for implementing and scaling up remote patient monitoring projects.     

COVID-19 Assessment and Testing in Rural Communities During the Pandemic: Cross-sectional Analysis

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the need for urgent improvements in access to health care for rural, remote, and underserviced communities. The Renfrew County Virtual Triage and Assessment Centre (VTAC) was designed to provide access to COVID-19 testing and assessment with a family physician. The goal was to protect emergency departments and 911 paramedics while ensuring that nobody was left at home, suffering in silence. Residents were encouraged to call their own family physician for any urgent health needs. If they did not have a family physician or could not access their usual primary care provider, then they could call VTAC. This study reports on the output of a service model offering access to assessment and COVID-19 testing through a blend of virtual and in-person care options by a multidisciplinary team.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to assess the ability of VTAC to provide access to COVID-19 assessment and testing across rural, remote, and underserviced communities.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the data derived from the cases handled by VTAC between March 27, 2020 (launch day), and September 30, 2020.ResultsResidents from all 19 census subdivisions and municipalities of Renfrew County accessed VTAC. A total of 10,086 family physician assessments were completed (average 64 per day). Of these, 8535 (84.6%) assessments were to unique patient users. Thirty physicians provided care. Using digital equipment setup in the patients’ home, 31 patients were monitored remotely. VTAC community paramedics completed 14,378 COVID-19 tests and 3875 home visits.ConclusionsRenfrew County’s experience suggests that there is tremendous synergy between family physicians and community paramedics in providing access to COVID-19 assessment and COVID-19 testing. The blended model of virtual and in-person care is well suited to provide improved access to other aspects of health care post pandemic, particularly for patients without a family physician.     

The working conditions for personal support workers in the Greater Toronto Area during the COVID-19 pandemic: a mixed-methods study

ObjectiveDuring the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, personal support workers (PSWs) were heralded as healthcare ‘heroes’ as many of them cared for high-risk, vulnerable older populations, and worked in long-term care, which experienced a high number of COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths. While essential to the healthcare workforce, there is little understanding of PSW working conditions during the pandemic. The aim of our study was to examine the working conditions (including job security, work policies, and personal experiences) for PSWs in the Greater Toronto Area during the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspectives of PSWs.MethodsThis study used a mixed-methods design. From June to December 2020, we conducted a survey of 634 PSWs to understand their working conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Semi-structured interviews with 31 survey respondents were conducted from February to May 2021 to understand in greater depth how working conditions were impacting the well-being of PSWs.ResultsWe found PSWs faced a range of challenges related to COVID-19, including anxiety about contracting COVID-19, reduced work hours, taking leaves of absences, concerns about job security, and losing childcare. While the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the PSW workforce and their importance to the healthcare system (especially in the long-term care system), pre-existing poor work conditions of insecure jobs with no paid sick days and benefits exacerbated COVID-19–related challenges. Despite these hardships, PSWs were able to rely on their mental resilience and passion for their profession to cope with challenges.ConclusionSignificant changes need to be made to improve PSW working conditions. Better compensation, increased job security, decreased workload burden, and mental health supports are needed.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.17269/s41997-022-00643-7.     

COVID-19 Data Utilization in North Carolina: Qualitative Analysis of Stakeholder Experiences

BackgroundAs the world faced the pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), medical professionals, technologists, community leaders, and policy makers sought to understand how best to leverage data for public health surveillance and community education. With this complex public health problem, North Carolinians relied on data from state, federal, and global health organizations to increase their understanding of the pandemic and guide decision-making.ObjectiveWe aimed to describe the role that stakeholders involved in COVID-19–related data played in managing the pandemic in North Carolina. The study investigated the processes used by organizations throughout the state in using, collecting, and reporting COVID-19 data.MethodsWe used an exploratory qualitative study design to investigate North Carolina’s COVID-19 data collection efforts. To better understand these processes, key informant interviews were conducted with employees from organizations that collected COVID-19 data across the state. We developed an interview guide, and open-ended semistructured interviews were conducted during the period from June through November 2020. Interviews lasted between 30 and 45 minutes and were conducted by data scientists by videoconference. Data were subsequently analyzed using qualitative data analysis software.ResultsResults indicated that electronic health records were primary sources of COVID-19 data. Often, data were also used to create dashboards to inform the public or other health professionals, to aid in decision-making, or for reporting purposes. Cross-sector collaboration was cited as a major success. Consistency among metrics and data definitions, data collection processes, and contact tracing were cited as challenges.ConclusionsFindings suggest that, during future outbreaks, organizations across regions could benefit from data centralization and data governance. Data should be publicly accessible and in a user-friendly format. Additionally, established cross-sector collaboration networks are demonstrably beneficial for public health professionals across the state as these established relationships facilitate a rapid response to evolving public health challenges.     

COVID-19’s impact on primary care and related mitigation strategies: A scoping review

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on primary care throughout Europe and globally.ObjectivesThis review aims to ascertain how the pandemic has impacted primary care service provision/patients and to examine strategies to mitigate these impacts.MethodsThe scoping review framework comprised a six-stage process developed by Arksey and O''Malley. The search process was guided by the Joanna Briggs Institute three-step search strategy and involved searching the PubMed, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL Plus, and Cochrane Library databases. The review is reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews. A thematic analysis approach by Braun and Clarke was used to interpret the findings.ResultsThirty-two studies from 18 countries and six continents were included, 13 reported original research, three were reviews, and 16 were case reports reporting healthcare systems’ experiences of dealing with the pandemic. Emerging themes concerned the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on primary care service provision and patients, the impact of the rapid transition to telemedicine due to COVID-19 on primary care, and strategies to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on primary care (i.e. infection prevention and control measures, alternatives/modifications to traditional service delivery or workflow, government policy responses, and education).ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic has considerably impacted on primary care at both service and patient levels, and various strategies to mitigate these impacts have been described. Future research examining the pandemic’s ongoing impacts on primary care, as well as strategies to mitigate these impacts, is a priority.     

基于利益相关者理论的农村县乡两级医疗服务整合作用机制分析

目的:分析利益相关者的利益诉求对农村县乡两级医疗服务纵向整合的影响机制。方法:通过对黔江、黄陂、扬中三地区的利益相关者访谈资料进行词频分析,确定各地区利益相关者的利益诉求;通过利益诉求调查问卷了解各地区利益相关者对各类诉求的重视程度和利益得失情况;借鉴综合评价和博弈论的理论方法分析各地区利益相关者的诉求得益情况对其行为反应的影响。结果:各地区的整合政策均在不同程度上反映了利益相关者的利益诉求;利益诉求效益评分越高的地区,其利益相关者对整合政策的行为配合意愿越强。结论:农村医疗服务整合的改革政策应综合考虑各利益相关者的利益诉求;利益相关者的利益诉求满足情况越好,其配合整合改革的动力越强,从而可在一定程度上影响当地整合改革的实施效果。     

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Health Care Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

BackgroundPrior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe.ObjectiveOur goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions.MethodsWe developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground.ResultsForecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs.ConclusionsReal-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.     

Chronic and rare disease patients' access to healthcare services during a health crisis: The example of the COVID‐19 pandemic in Turkey

ObjectiveThe restructuring of healthcare provision for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic caused disruptions in access for patients with chronic or rare diseases. This study explores the experiences of patients with chronic or rare diseases in access to healthcare services in Turkey during the COVID‐19 pandemic.MethodsSemi‐structured interviews were conducted with representatives (n = 10) of patient organisations (n = 9) based in Istanbul. Thematic analysis with an inductive approach was conducted to analyse the responses obtained through the interviews.ResultsThe lack of clinical information at the beginning of the pandemic caused fear among patients with chronic or rare diseases. Patients experienced obstacles in access to healthcare services because of the overcrowding of hospitals with COVID‐19 patients. Some treatment procedures were cancelled or postponed by physicians. Of these procedures, some were medically vital for those patients, leading to or exacerbating further health problems. The most positive measures that patients identified were where the Social Security Institution introduced regulations to facilitate access to prescribed medicine for chronic patients. Information exchange between the doctors and their patients was important to alleviate the uncertainty and reduce the anxiety among patients.DiscussionAccess problems experienced by patients during the COVID‐19 pandemic were a complex mix of factors including shortages and physical barriers, but also perceptions of barriers. The findings of this study show that patient organisations can provide insights on disease‐specific experiences and problems that are very valuable to improve access to healthcare services to achieve the universal health coverage target. Hence, this study emphasises the inclusion of patient organisations in decision‐making processes during times of health crises.Public ContributionRepresentatives of patient organisations participated in the interviews.     

Impact of COVID-19: Nursing challenges to meeting the care needs of people with developmental disabilities

BackgroundPeople with developmental disabilities (DD) are a population at high-risk for poor outcomes related to COVID-19. COVID-19-specific risks, including greater comorbidities and congregate living situations in persons with DD compound existing health disparities. With their expertise in care of persons with DD and understanding of basic principles of infection control, DD nurses are well-prepared to advocate for the needs of people with DD during the COVID-19 pandemic.ObjectiveTo assess the challenges faced by nurses caring for persons with DD during the COVID-19 pandemic and how the challenges impact people with DD.MethodsWe surveyed 556 DD nurses, from April 6–20, 2020. The 35-item mixed-method survey asked nurses to rate the degree of challenges faced in meeting the care needs of people with DD. We analyzed responses based on presence of COVID-19 in the care setting and geographically. One open-ended question elicited challenges not included in the survey, which we analyzed using manifest content analysis.ResultsStartlingly, nurses reported being excluded from COVID-19 planning, and an absence of public health guidelines specific to persons with DD, despite their high-risk status. Obtaining PPE and sanitizers and meeting social-behavioral care needs were the most highly ranked challenges. COVID-19 impacted nurses’ ability to maintain adequate staffing and perform essential aspects of care. No significant geographic differences were noted.ConclusionsDD nurses must be involved in public health planning and policy development to ensure that basic care needs of persons with DD are met, and the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 in this vulnerable population is reduced.