The spillover effects of Medicare managed care: Medicare Advantage and hospital utilization

More than a quarter of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in Medicare Advantage, which was created in large part to improve the efficiency of health care delivery by promoting competition among private managed care plans. This paper explores the spillover effects of the Medicare Advantage program on the traditional Medicare program and other patients, taking advantage of changes in Medicare Advantage payment policy to isolate exogenous increases in Medicare Advantage enrollment and trace out the effects of greater managed care penetration on hospital utilization and spending throughout the health care system. We find that when more seniors enroll in Medicare managed care, hospital costs decline for all seniors and for commercially insured younger populations. Greater managed care penetration is not associated with fewer hospitalizations, but is associated with lower costs and shorter stays per hospitalization. These spillovers are substantial – offsetting more than 10% of increased payments to Medicare Advantage plans.     

Impact of managed care on the treatment, costs, and outcomes of fee-for-service Medicare patients with acute myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of market-level managed care activity on the treatment, cost, and outcomes of care for Medicare fee-for-service acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Patients from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project (CCP), a sample of Medicare beneficiaries discharged from nonfederal acute-care hospitals with a primary discharge diagnosis of AMI from January 1994 to February 1996. STUDY DESIGN: We estimated models of patient treatment, costs, and outcomes using ordinary least squares and logistic regression. The independent variables of primary interest were market-area managed care penetration and competition. The models included controls for patient, hospital, and other market area characteristics. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: We merged the CCP data with Medicare claims and other data sources. The study sample included CCP patients aged 65 and older who were admitted during 1994 and 1995 with a confirmed AMI to a nonrural hospital. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Rates of revascularization and cardiac catheterization for Medicare fee-for-service patients with AMI are lower in high-HMO penetration markets than in low-penetration ones. Patients admitted in high-HMO-competition markets, in contrast, are more likely to receive cardiac catheterization for treatment of their AMI and had higher treatment costs than those admitted in low-competition markets. CONCLUSIONS: The level of managed care activity in the health care market affects the process of care for Medicare fee-for-service AMI patients. Spillovers from managed care activity to patients with other types of insurance are more likely when managed care organizations have greater market power.     

Tracking the Response to the Balanced Budget Act of 1997: Impact on Medicare Managed Care Enrollment in Rural Counties

The impact of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 on recent changes in enrollment of Medicare beneficiaries into managed care plans is examined. The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 created a new payment structure for Medicare risk contracts, which, in 1998, resulted in all counties receiving either a minimum payment or a payment with the increase restricted at 2 percent growth over the 1997 rate. Using a baseline of December 1997 and enrollment data through June 1998, differences in early enrollment trends between urban and rural counties and between counties at various rates of payment are examined. As expected, continued enrollment increases in all counties is observed but with some concerns about slow enrollment growth--and announcements of plan terminations--in counties with payment rates in the mid-range, above the floor payment but subject to the 2 percent growth. In addition, evidence of considerable changes in the benefits offered by plans and the premiums charged to beneficiaries also was observed during the first nine months of 1998. The implications for growth of managed care options in rural areas are still unclear. The floor on payments may be helpful, but constraints in payment increases and delays in implementing a blended rate can be expected to create a negative impact on decisions to market managed care plans.     

PMD6 Chronic Care Costs of New Medicare HMO Enrollees: Implications for Disease Management

Cost-effective care for chronic conditions is a growing concern of health plans enrolling increasing numbers of the elderly and disabled under Medicare risk contracts. This study provides evidence of the prevalence, patterns of care, and costs of chronic illnesses among new Medicare HMO enrollees. The results provide a foundation for estimates of the cost-effectiveness of drug therapy and care management programs that serve this group.
METHODS: We used national Medicare claims data to examine chronic care services and associated costs for a sample of 19,084 beneficiaries who enrolled in an HMO in 1995. We constructed three measures of cost: the total Medicare-covered cost, the cost of medical claims with the chronic condition coded as a diagnosis, and the regression-estimated effect of the chronic condition on cost.
RESULTS: 58% of the new Medicare HMO enrollees in our sample were treated for at least one of the selected chronic conditions in the six months before enrollment. One-third of the new enrollees had multiple conditions represented by diagnoses in more than one of eighteen chronic-condition groups. Persons with chronic conditions accounted for 93% of pre-enrollment Medicare costs among new HMO enrollees. Per 1,000 enrollees, pre-enrollment Medicare costs were greatest for those with hypertensive disease, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and diabetes.
CONCLUSIONS: The concentration of utilization and costs in those with chronic conditions suggests that appropriate drug therapy and care management for those with chronic conditions should be a top priority for HMOs with Medicare risk contracts. These estimates of prevalence suggest a need for HMOs to screen new Medicare HMO enrollees for chronic conditions immediately upon enrollment to ensure continuity of care.     

An economic history of Medicare part C

Context: Twenty‐five years ago, private insurance plans were introduced into the Medicare program with the stated dual aims of (1) giving beneficiaries a choice of health insurance plans beyond the fee‐for‐service Medicare program and (2) transferring to the Medicare program the efficiencies and cost savings achieved by managed care in the private sector. Methods: In this article we review the economic history of Medicare Part C, known today as Medicare Advantage, focusing on the impact of major changes in the program's structure and of plan payment methods on trends in the availability of private plans, plan enrollment, and Medicare spending. Additionally, we compare the experience of Medicare Advantage and of employer‐sponsored health insurance with managed care over the same time period. Findings: Beneficiaries’ access to private plans has been inconsistent over the program's history, with higher plan payments resulting in greater choice and enrollment and vice versa. But Medicare Advantage generally has cost more than the traditional Medicare program, an overpayment that has increased in recent years. Conclusions: Major changes in Medicare Advantage's payment rules are needed in order to simultaneously encourage the participation of private plans, the provision of high‐quality care, and to save Medicare money.     

Risk-adjustment system for the Medicare capitated ESRD program

Medicare is the principal payer for medical services for those in the U.S. population suffering from end-stage renal disease (ESRD). By law, beneficiaries diagnosed with ESRD may not subsequently enroll in Medicare Advantage (MA) plans, however, the potential benefits of managed care for this population have stimulated interest in changing the law and developing demonstration plans. We describe a new risk-adjustment system developed for Medicare to pay for ESRD beneficiaries in managed care plans. The model improves on current payment methodology by adjusting payments for treatment status and comorbidities.     

Impact of Medicare SELECT on cost and utilization in 11 states

In this article, the authors evaluate the cost and utilization effects of the SELECT implementations in 11 States. In particular they compare the before-and-after enrollment experiences of Medicare beneficiaries newly enrolled in SELECT plans with the experiences of those newly enrolled in traditional medigap plans. Using Medicare claims data for 1991 through 1994, the authors find that Medicare SELECT increased costs in five States, decreased costs in three States, and had no effect in three States. Cost increases were generally related to Part B utilization.     

Estimating Medicare advantage lock-in provisions impact on vulnerable Medicare beneficiaries

Beginning January 2006, Medicare beneficiaries will have limited ability to change health plans. We examine the Medicare managed care enrollment and disenrollment behavior of traditionally vulnerable beneficiaries from 1999-2001 to estimate the potential impact of the new enrollment restrictions. Findings that several such groups were more likely to make multiple health plan elections, leave their managed care plan midyear, and/or have higher voluntary disenrollment rates and transfers to original fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare suggest that the lock-in provisions may have greater negative impacts on vulnerable beneficiaries. This article identifies several recommendations that CMS might consider to lessen the detrimental effects on at-risk groups.     

Impact of Medicare payment reductions on access to surgical services.

OBJECTIVE. This study evaluates the impact of surgical fee reductions under Medicare on the utilization of surgical services. DATA SOURCES. Medicare physician claims data were obtained from 11 states for a five-year time period (1985-1989). STUDY DESIGN. Under OBRA-87, Medicare reduced payments for 11 surgical procedures. A fixed effects regression method was used to determine the impact of these payment reductions on access to care for potentially vulnerable Medicare beneficiaries: joint Medicaid-eligibles, blacks, and the very old. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS. Medicare claims and enrollment data were used to construct a cross-section time-series of population-based surgical rates from 1985 through 1989. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Reductions in surgical fees led to small but significant increases in use for three procedures, small decreases in use for two procedures, and no impact on the remaining six procedures. There was little evidence that access to surgery was impaired for potentially vulnerable enrollees; in fact, declining fees often led to greater rates of increases for some subgroups. CONCLUSIONS. Our results suggest that volume responses by surgeons to payment changes under the Medicare Fee Schedule may be smaller than HCFA's original estimates. Nevertheless, both access and quality of care should continue to be closely monitored.     

Understanding biased selection in Medicare HMOs

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the extent of favorable health maintenance organization (HMO) selection for a longitudinal cohort of Medicare beneficiaries, examine whether the extent of favorable selection varies with the degree of Medicare HMO market penetration in a county, and explain conflicting findings in the literature on favorable HMO selection. DATA SOURCES: A panel of 1992-1996 data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS), supplemented with linked data from the Area Resource File and Medicare administrative datasets. STUDY DESIGN: Using random effects probit estimation, we model a beneficiary's HMO enrollment status as a function of self-reported health status and Medicare HMO market penetration. DATA EXTRACTION METHODS: The MCBS data for beneficiaries residing in states served by Medicare HMOs in 1992-1996 were linked by county to the supplementary datasets. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We find that favorable selection persists in the cohort over time on some, but not all, measures. We find no substantial association between favorable HMO selection and HMO market penetration. We find that conflicting findings in the literature on favorable HMO selection may be explained by several methodological choices, including the choice of health status measure and the structure of the sample. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support further risk adjustment of the adjusted average per capita cost (AAPCC) payment formula.     

Geographic variation in determinants of Medicare managed care enrollment

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of adjusted average per capita cost (AAPCC) rate and volatility on Medicare risk plan enrollment at the county level. DATA SOURCES: Secondary data from the Health Care Financing Administration's office of managed care and other sources were merged to create comprehensive data on all Medicare risk plans in 3,069 of the 3,112 U. S. counties in December 1996. STUDY DESIGN: A two-step least squares regression was estimated to examine the effects of AAPCC rate and volatility, commercial HMO enrollment, market factors, and characteristics of the county population on Medicare HMO enrollment. The model was also used to simulate the effects of the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. Data from the Health Care Financing Administration were merged with other sources at the county level. The Federal Information Processing Standards code and a crosswalk file matching that code with the county name linked the data across sources. PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: The AAPCC rate has a small positive effect on the probability of Medicare HMO availability and enrollment. However, commercial HMO enrollment has a much stronger positive effect on Medicare HMO enrollment. Volatility has a negative effect on the probability of any Medicare HMO enrollment. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that payment changes enacted as part of the Balanced Budget Act will have a limited effect on Medicare HMO enrollment, especially in rural areas. Other policy changes are needed to stimulate Medicare HMO enrollment.     

Disability and Medicare Costs of Elderly Persons

Widely studied as a predictor of long-term care use, functional disability is also an important explanatory variable for acute care costs spent for the elderly. As policy makers contemplate ways to control rapidly growing Medicare expenditures, such as increasing the enrollment of beneficiaries into managed care programs, knowledge about the relation between functional disability and Medicare costs is likely to become more important for the design of program features. The research described here uses data from the new Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey to estimate the relation between functional disability and Medicare costs, the effects on costs of interactions between disability and other personal characteristics of beneficiaries, and changes in the level of disability and Medicare costs.     

Medigap premiums and Medicare HMO enrollment

OBJECTIVE: Markets for Medicare HMOs (health maintenance organizations) and supplemental Medicare coverage are often treated separately in existing literature. Yet because managed care plans and Medigap plans both cover services not covered by basic Medicare, these markets are clearly interrelated. We examine the extent to which Medigap premiums affect the likelihood of the elderly joining managed care plans. DATA SOURCES: The analysis is based on a sample of Medicare beneficiaries drawn from the 1996-1997 Community Tracking Study (CTS) Household Survey by the Center for Studying Health System Change. Respondents span 56 different CTS sites from 30 different states. Measures of premiums for privately-purchased Medigap policies were collected from a survey of large insurers serving this market. Data for individual, market, and HMO characteristics were collected from the CTS, InterStudy, and HCFA (Health Care Financing Administration). STUDY DESIGN: Our analysis uses a reduced-form logit model to estimate the probability of Medicare HMO participation as a function of Medigap premiums controlling for other market- and individual-level characteristics. The logit coefficients were then used to simulate changes in Medicare participation in response to changes in Medigap premiums. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found that Medigap premiums vary considerably among the geographic markets included in our sample. Measures of premiums from different insurers and for different types of Medigap policies were generally highly correlated across markets. Our models consistently indicate a strong positive relationship between Medigap premiums and HMO participation. This result is robust across several specifications. Simulations suggest that a one standard deviation increase in Medigap premiums would increase HMO participation by more than 8 percentage points. CONCLUSIONS: This research provides strong evidence that Medigap premiums have a significant effect on seniors' participation in Medicare HMOs. Policy initiatives aimed at lowering Medigap premiums will likely discourage enrollment in Medicare HMOs, holding other factors constant. Although the Medigap premiums are just one factor affecting the future penetration rate of Medicare HMOs, they are an important driver of HMO enrollment and should be considered carefully when creating policy related to seniors' supplemental coverage. Similarly, our results imply that reforms to the Medicare HMO market would influence the demand for Medigap policies.     

Health-risk-assessment tools used to predict costs in defined populations

With the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 mandating that the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA) implement risk-adjusted payment mechanisms for Medicare managed care plans (Medicare + Choice) by January 2000, risk-adjustment tools will play an important role in future capitated reimbursement. This is because there is growing evidence that healthier-than-average beneficiaries select Medicare + Choice. The risk adjustment that HCFA has adopted is initially based on primary inpatient diagnosis from hospitalizations in the previous year. Other payers are likely to adopt similar payment mechanisms. This article reviews nineteen risk-adjustment research papers, including the tool adopted for Medicare + Choice, some of which are likely to form the basis for subsequent HCFA risk-adjustment methods. In general, claims-based models are more powerful in predicting total costs than survey-based or demographics-based models. Survey-based models, although expensive and not as powerful claims-based models, can be used when claims data are unavailable. One of the most popular survey-based tools, SF-36, is likely to become increasingly important because HCFA will be using it to measure quality outcomes from Medicare + Choice plans and will make the results public. All of the models reviewed have limitations, but can be expected to be building blocks for future risk-based capitated reimbursement.     

Disability profile and health care costs of Medicare beneficiaries under age sixty-five

Medicare has more than five million beneficiaries with disabilities who are under age sixty-five, and enrollment is rising rapidly. This paper presents a profile of nonelderly beneficiaries in fee-for-service Medicare by major disability category, excluding those with end-stage renal disease. The profile is based on Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) Cost and Use data for 1994-1996. We estimate Medicare costs by service type and health care costs by payer type, and we discuss implications for Medicare reform and related federal disability policy issues.     

Medicare Part A utilization and expenditures for psychiatric services: 1995

This study provides an overview of Medicare's current coverage and payment policies regarding hospitalization for psychiatric disorders, and presents new information on demographic, diagnostic, utilization, and expenditure characteristics associated with inpatient psychiatric care among 1995 Medicare beneficiaries. Results suggest that utilization and expenditure patterns for Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for psychiatric illness in 1995 differ across demographic (e.g., age, sex, race) and diagnostic categories. The implications of these findings for current management of the Medicare program as well as the evolution of Medicare managed care systems for behavioral health services are discussed.     

Medicare physician payment changes: impact on physicians and beneficiaries

The Balanced Budget Act (BBA) of 1997 generally reduced Medicare payments for surgical services while increasing them for other services. Concern about implications of these fee reductions prompted the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission to sponsor a national survey of physicians to learn their views on Medicare payment and whether access to care has changed for Medicare beneficiaries. Results suggest that beneficiaries' access to care has not declined. While physicians are concerned about Medicare reimbursement, they are more concerned about reimbursement from managed care plans and Medicaid. Continued monitoring will be important to detect any emerging access problems accompanying upcoming payment reductions.     

Risk-adjusted Medicare capitation rates using ambulatory and inpatient diagnoses

Researchers at The Johns Hopkins University (JHU) developed two new diagnosis-oriented methodologies for setting risk adjusted capitation rates for managed care plans contracting with Medicare. These adjusters predict the future medical expenditures of aged Medicare enrollees based on demographic factors and diagnostic information. The models use the Ambulatory Care Group (ACG) algorithm to categorize ambulatory diagnoses. Two alternative approaches for categorizing inpatient diagnoses were used. Lewin-VHI, Inc. evaluated the models using data from 624,000 randomly selected aged Medicare beneficiaries. The models predict expenditures far better than the Adjusted Average per Capita Cost (AAPCC) payment method. It is possible that risk adjusted capitation payments could encourage health plans to compete on the basis of efficiency and quality and not risk selection.