Trends in mortality from respiratory disease in Latin America since 1998 and the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic

Objective

To determine trends in mortality from respiratory disease in several areas of Latin America between 1998 and 2009.

Methods

The numbers of deaths attributed to respiratory disease between 1998 and 2009 were extracted from mortality data from Argentina, southern Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Paraguay. Robust linear models were then fitted to the rates of mortality from respiratory disease recorded between 2003 and 2009.

Findings

Between 1998 and 2008, rates of mortality from respiratory disease gradually decreased in all age groups in most of the study areas. Among children younger than 5 years, for example, the annual rates of such mortality – across all seven study areas – fell from 56.9 deaths per 100 000 in 1998 to 26.6 deaths per 100 000 in 2008. Over this period, rates of mortality from respiratory disease were generally highest among adults older than 65 years and lowest among individuals aged 5 to 49 years. In 2009, mortality from respiratory disease was either similar to that recorded in 2008 or showed an increase – significant increases were seen among children younger than 5 years in Paraguay, among those aged 5 to 49 years in southern Brazil, Mexico and Paraguay and among adults aged 50 to 64 years in Mexico and Paraguay.

Conclusion

In much of Latin America, mortality from respiratory disease gradually fell between 1998 and 2008. However, this downward trend came to a halt in 2009, probably as a result of the (H1N1) 2009 pandemic.     

What are the health costs of uranium mining? A case study of miners in Grants,New Mexico

Background:

Uranium mining is associated with lung cancer and other health problems among miners. Health impacts are related with miner exposure to radon gas progeny.

Objectives:

This study estimates the health costs of excess lung cancer mortality among uranium miners in the largest uranium-producing district in the USA, centered in Grants, New Mexico.

Methods:

Lung cancer mortality rates on miners were used to estimate excess mortality and years of life lost (YLL) among the miner population in Grants from 1955 to 2005. A cost analysis was performed to estimate direct (medical) and indirect (premature mortality) health costs.

Results:

Total health costs ranged from $2.2 million to $7.7 million per excess death. This amounts to between $22.4 million and $165.8 million in annual health costs over the 1955–1990 mining period. Annual exposure-related lung cancer mortality was estimated at 2185.4 miners per 100 000, with a range of 1419.8–2974.3 per 100 000.

Conclusions:

Given renewed interest in uranium worldwide, results suggest a re-evaluation of radon exposure standards and inclusion of miner long-term health into mining planning decisions.     

Diarrhoea-related hospitalizations in children before and after implementation of monovalent rotavirus vaccination in Mexico

Objective

To assess, by socioeconomic setting, the effect of nationwide vaccination against species A rotavirus (RVA) on childhood diarrhoea-related hospitalizations in Mexico.

Methods

Data on children younger than 5 years who were hospitalized for diarrhoea in health ministry hospitals between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2011 were collected from monthly discharge reports. Human development indexes were used to categorize the states where hospitals were located as having generally high, intermediate or low socioeconomic status. Annual rates of hospitalization for diarrhoea – per 10 000 hospitalizations for any cause – were calculated. Administrative data were used to estimate vaccine coverage.

Findings

In the states with high, intermediate and low socioeconomic status, coverage with a two-dose monovalent RVA vaccine – among children younger than 5 years – had reached 93%, 86% and 71%, respectively, by 2010. The corresponding median annual rates of hospitalization for diarrhoea – per 10 000 admissions – fell from 1001, 834 and 1033 in the “prevaccine” period of 2003–2006, to 597, 497 and 705 in the “postvaccine” period from 2008 to 2011, respectively. These decreases correspond to rate reductions of 40% (95% confidence interval, CI: 38–43), 41% (95% CI: 38–43) and 32% (95% CI: 29–34), respectively. Nationwide, RVA vaccination appeared to have averted approximately 16 500 hospitalizations for childhood diarrhoea in each year of the postvaccine period.

Conclusion

Monovalent RVA vaccination has substantially reduced childhood diarrhoea-related hospitalizations for four continuous years in discretely different socioeconomic populations across Mexico.     

The epidemiology of child homicides in South Africa

Objective

To describe age- and sex-specific rates of child homicide in South Africa.

Methods

A cross-sectional mortuary-based study was conducted in a national sample of 38 medicolegal laboratories operating in 2009. These were sampled in inverse proportion to the number that were operational in each of three strata defined by autopsy volume: < 500, 500–1499 or > 1499 annual autopsies. Child homicide data were collected from mortuary files, autopsy reports and police interviews. Cause of death, evidence of abuse and neglect or of sexual assault, perpetrator characteristics and circumstances surrounding the death were investigated.

Findings

An estimated 1018 (95% confidence interval, CI: 843–1187) child homicides occurred in 2009, for a rate of 5.5 (95% CI: 4.6–6.4) homicides per 100 000 children younger than 18 years. The homicide rate was much higher in boys (6.9 per 100 000; 95% CI: 5.6–8.3) than in girls (3.9 per 100 000; 95% CI: 3.2–4.7). Child abuse and neglect had preceded nearly half (44.5%) of all homicides, but three times more often among girls than among boys. In children aged 15 to 17 years, the homicide rate among boys (21.7 per 100 000; 95% CI: 14.2–29.2) was nearly five times higher than the homicide rate among girls (4.6 per 100 000; 95% CI: 2.4–6.8).

Conclusion

South Africa’s child homicide rate is more than twice the global estimate. Since a background of child abuse and neglect is common, improvement of parenting skills should be part of primary prevention efforts.     

Rotavirus mortality in India: estimates based on a nationally representative survey of diarrhoeal deaths

Objective

To estimate the number of rotavirus-associated deaths among Indian children younger than five years.

Methods

We surveyed more than 23 000 child deaths from a nationally representative survey of 1.1 million Indian households during 2001–2003. Diarrhoeal deaths were characterized by region, age and sex and were combined with the proportion of deaths attributable to rotavirus, as determined by hospital microbiologic data collected by the Indian Rotavirus Strain Surveillance Network from December 2005 to November 2007. Rotavirus vaccine efficacy data from clinical trials in developing countries were used to estimate the number of deaths preventable by a national vaccination programme. Data were analysed using Stata SE version 10.

Findings

Rotavirus caused an estimated 113 000 deaths (99% confidence interval, CI: 86 000–155 000); 50% (54 700) and 75% (85 400) occurred before one and two years of age, respectively. One child in 242 died from rotavirus infection before five years of age. Rotavirus-associated mortality rates overall, among girls and among boys were 4.14 (99% CI: 3.14–5.68), 4.89 (99% CI: 3.75–6.79) and 3.45 (99% CI: 2.58–4.66) deaths per 1000 live births, respectively. Rates were highest in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, which together accounted for > 50% of deaths (64 400) nationally. Rotavirus vaccine could prevent 41 000–48 000 deaths among children aged 3–59 months.

Conclusion

The burden of rotavirus-associated mortality is high among Indian children, highlighting the potential benefits of rotavirus vaccination.     

Mortality from neglected tropical diseases in Brazil, 2000–2011

Objective

To describe mortality from neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in Brazil, 2000–2011.

Methods

We extracted information on cause of death, age, sex, ethnicity and place of residence from the nationwide mortality information system at the Brazilian Ministry of Health. We selected deaths in which the underlying cause of death was a neglected tropical disease (NTD), as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) and based on its International statistical classification of diseases and related health problems, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. For specific NTDs, we estimated crude and age-adjusted mortality rates and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We calculated crude and age-adjusted mortality rates and mortality rate ratios by age, sex, ethnicity and geographic area.

Findings

Over the 12-year study period, 12 491 280 deaths were recorded; 76 847 deaths (0.62%) were caused by NTDs. Chagas disease was the most common cause of death (58 928 deaths; 76.7%), followed by schistosomiasis (6319 deaths; 8.2%) and leishmaniasis (3466 deaths; 4.5%). The average annual age-adjusted mortality from all NTDs combined was 4.30 deaths per 100 000 population (95% CI: 4.21–4.40). Rates were higher in males: 4.98 deaths per 100 000; people older than 69 years: 33.12 deaths per 100 000; Afro-Brazilians: 5.25 deaths per 100 000; and residents in the central-west region: 14.71 deaths per 100 000.

Conclusion

NTDs are important causes of death and are a significant public health problem in Brazil. There is a need for intensive integrated control measures in areas of high morbidity and mortality.     

A prospective study of maternal,fetal and neonatal deaths in low- and middle-income countries

Objective

To quantify maternal, fetal and neonatal mortality in low- and middle-income countries, to identify when deaths occur and to identify relationships between maternal deaths and stillbirths and neonatal deaths.

Methods

A prospective study of pregnancy outcomes was performed in 106 communities at seven sites in Argentina, Guatemala, India, Kenya, Pakistan and Zambia. Pregnant women were enrolled and followed until six weeks postpartum.

Findings

Between 2010 and 2012, 214 070 of 220 235 enrolled women (97.2%) completed follow-up. The maternal mortality ratio was 168 per 100 000 live births, ranging from 69 per 100 000 in Argentina to 316 per 100 000 in Pakistan. Overall, 29% (98/336) of maternal deaths occurred around the time of delivery: most were attributed to haemorrhage (86/336), pre-eclampsia or eclampsia (55/336) or sepsis (39/336). Around 70% (4349/6213) of stillbirths were probably intrapartum; 34% (1804/5230) of neonates died on the day of delivery and 14% (755/5230) died the day after. Stillbirths were more common in women who died than in those alive six weeks postpartum (risk ratio, RR: 9.48; 95% confidence interval, CI: 7.97–11.27), as were perinatal deaths (RR: 4.30; 95% CI: 3.26–5.67) and 7-day (RR: 3.94; 95% CI: 2.74–5.65) and 28-day neonatal deaths (RR: 7.36; 95% CI: 5.54–9.77).

Conclusion

Most maternal, fetal and neonatal deaths occurred at or around delivery and were attributed to preventable causes. Maternal death increased the risk of perinatal and neonatal death. Improving obstetric and neonatal care around the time of birth offers the greatest chance of reducing mortality.     

Long-term mortality among older adults with burn injury: a population-based study in Australia

Objective

To assess if burn injury in older adults is associated with changes in long-term all-cause mortality and to estimate the increased risk of death attributable to burn injury.

Methods

We conducted a population-based matched longitudinal study – based on administrative data from Western Australia’s hospital morbidity data system and death register. A cohort of 6014 individuals who were aged at least 45 years when hospitalized for a first burn injury in 1980–2012 was identified. A non-injury comparison cohort, randomly selected from Western Australia’s electoral roll (n = 25 759), was matched to the patients. We used Kaplan–Meier plots and Cox proportional hazards regression to analyse the data and generated mortality rate ratios and attributable risk percentages.

Findings

For those hospitalized with burns, 180 (3%) died in hospital and 2498 (42%) died after discharge. Individuals with burn injury had a 1.4-fold greater mortality rate than those with no injury (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.3–1.5). In this cohort, the long-term mortality attributable to burn injury was 29%. Mortality risk was increased by both severe and minor burns, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1–1.9) and 2.1 (95% CI: 1.9–2.3), respectively.

Conclusion

Burn injury is associated with increased long-term mortality. In our study population, sole reliance on data on in-hospital deaths would lead to an underestimate of the true mortality burden associated with burn injury.     

Influenza-associated mortality in temperate and subtropical Chinese cities, 2003-2008

Objective

To estimate influenza-associated mortality in urban China.

Methods

Influenza-associated excess mortality for the period 2003–2008 was estimated in three cities in temperate northern China and five cities in the subtropical south of the country. The estimates were derived from models based on negative binomial regressions, vital statistics and the results of weekly influenza virus surveillance.

Findings

Annual influenza-associated excess mortality, for all causes, was 18.0 (range: 10.9–32.7) deaths per 100 000 population in the northern cities and 11.3 (range: 7.3–17.8) deaths per 100 000 in the southern cities. Excess mortality for respiratory and circulatory disease was 12.4 (range: 7.4–22.2) and 8.8 (range: 5.5–13.6) deaths per 100 000 people in the northern and southern cities, respectively. Most (86%) deaths occurred among people aged ≥ 65 years. Influenza-associated excess mortality was higher in B-virus-dominant seasons than in seasons when A(H3N2) or A(H1N1) predominated, and more than half of all influenza-associated mortality was associated with influenza B virus.

Conclusion

Between 2003 and 2008, seasonal influenza, particularly that caused by the influenza B virus, was associated with substantial mortality in three cities in the temperate north of China and five cities in the subtropical south of the country.     

Community-based surveillance of maternal deaths in rural Ghana

Objective

To examine the feasibility and effectiveness of community-based maternal mortality surveillance in rural Ghana, where most information on maternal deaths usually comes from retrospective surveys and hospital records.

Methods

In 2013, community-based surveillance volunteers used a modified reproductive age mortality survey (RAMOS 4+2) to interview family members of women of reproductive age (13–49 years) who died in Bosomtwe district in the previous five years. The survey comprised four yes–no questions and two supplementary questions. Verbal autopsies were done if there was a positive answer to at least one yes–no question. A mortality review committee established the cause of death.

Findings

Survey results were available for 357 women of reproductive age who died in the district. A positive response to at least one yes–no question was recorded for respondents reporting on the deaths of 132 women. These women had either a maternal death or died within one year of termination of pregnancy. Review of 108 available verbal autopsies found that 64 women had a maternal or late maternal death and 36 died of causes unrelated to childbearing. The most common causes of death were haemorrhage (15) and abortion (14). The resulting maternal mortality ratio was 357 per 100 000 live births, compared with 128 per 100 000 live births derived from hospital records.

Conclusion

The community-based mortality survey was effective for ascertaining maternal deaths and identified many deaths not included in hospital records. National surveys could provide the information needed to end preventable maternal mortality by 2030.     

Childhood and adult mortality from unintentional falls in India

Objective

To estimate fall-related mortality by type of fall in India.

Methods

The authors analysed unintentional injury data from the ongoing Million Death Study from 2001–2003 using verbal autopsy and coding of all deaths in accordance with the International statistical classification of diseases and related health problems, tenth revision, in a nationally representative sample of 1.1 million homes throughout the country.

Findings

Falls accounted for 25% (2003/8023) of all deaths from unintentional injury and were the second leading cause of such deaths. An estimated 160 000 fall-related deaths occurred in India in 2005; of these, nearly 20 000 were in children aged 0–14 years. The unintentional-fall-related mortality rate (MR) per 100 000 population was 14.5 (99% confidence interval, CI: 13.7–15.4). Rates were similar for males and females at 14.9 (99% CI: 13.7–16.0) and 14.2 (99% CI: 13.1–15.4) per 100 000 population, respectively. People aged 70 years or older had the highest mortality rate from unintentional falls (MR: 271.2; 99% CI: 249.0–293.5), and the rate was higher among women (MR: 281; 99% CI: 249.7–311.3). Falls on the same level were the most common among older adults, whereas falls from heights were more common in younger age groups.

Conclusion

In India, unintentional falls are a major public health problem that disproportionately affects older women and children. The contexts in which these falls occur and the resulting morbidity and disability need to be better understood. In India there is an urgent need to develop, test and implement interventions aimed at preventing falls.     

Trends in all-cause mortality during the scale-up of an antiretroviral therapy programme: a cross-sectional study in Lusaka,Zambia

Objective

To follow the trends in all-cause mortality in Lusaka, Zambia, during the scale-up of a national programme of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods

Between November 2004 and September 2011, we conducted 12 survey rounds as part of a cross-sectional study in Lusaka, with independent sampling in each round. In each survey, we asked the heads of 3600 households to state the number of deaths in their households in the previous 12 months and the number of orphans aged less than 16 years in their households and investigated the heads’ knowledge, attitudes and practices related to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

Findings

The number of deaths we recorded – per 100 person–years – in each survey ranged from 0.92 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.78–1.09) in September 2011, to 1.94 (95% CI: 1.60–2.35) in March 2007. We found that mortality decreased only modestly each year (mortality rate ratio: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.95–1.00; P = 0.093). The proportion of households with orphans under the age of 16 years decreased from 17% in 2004 to 7% in 2011. The proportions of respondents who had ever been tested for HIV, had a comprehensive knowledge of HIV, knew where to obtain free ART and reported that a non-pregnant household member was receiving ART gradually increased.

Conclusion

The expansion of ART services in Lusaka was not associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality. Coverage, patient adherence and retention may all have to be increased if ART is to have a robust and lasting impact at population level in Lusaka.     

Seasonality of child and adolescent injury mortality in Japan, 2000–2010

Objective

Injury is the leading cause of death among children and adolescents in Japan. Despite this, until now there has been comparatively little research on this phenomenon. The purpose of this study was to examine if there was seasonal variation in child and adolescent injury mortality in Japan in 2000–2010.

Methods

Vital statistics injury mortality data were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. The seasonality of the major causes of unintentional injury (transport accidents, drowning and suffocation) and intentional injury (suicide and homicide) mortality was examined for children and adolescents aged 0–19. Incidence ratios (IR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to determine the difference between the numbers of observed and expected seasonal deaths.

Results

The annual average injury mortality rate among children and adolescents was 9.0 per 100,000. Deaths from transport accidents, drowning, suffocation and suicide had a significant seasonality. There was a summer peak for transport accidents (IR 1.15, 95 % CI 1.10–1.19) and drowning (IR 2.00, 95 % CI 1.88–2.11), a spring peak for suicide (IR 1.09, 95 % CI 1.04–1.14), while the incidence of suffocation was higher in winter (IR 1.12, 95 % CI 1.03–1.21).

Conclusion

Child and adolescent injury mortality from transport accidents, drowning, suffocation and suicide has a pronounced seasonality in Japan. More research is now needed to find the circumstances underpinning different forms of injury mortality in different periods of the year so that effective interventions can be designed and implemented to reduce the burden of injury mortality among Japanese children.     

Lives saved by tuberculosis control and prospects for achieving the 2015 global target for reducing tuberculosis mortality

Objective

To assess whether the global target of halving tuberculosis (TB) mortality between 1990 and 2015 can be achieved and to conduct the first global assessment of the lives saved by the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy of the World Health Organization (WHO).

Methods

Mortality from TB since 1990 was estimated for 213 countries using established methods endorsed by WHO. Mortality trends were estimated separately for people with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in accordance with the International classification of diseases. Lives saved by the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy were estimated with respect to the performance of TB control in 1995, the year that DOTS was introduced.

Findings

TB mortality among HIV-negative (HIV−) people fell from 30 to 20 per 100 000 population (36%) between 1990 and 2009 and could be halved by 2015. The overall decline (when including HIV-positive [HIV+] people, who comprise 12% of all TB cases) was 19%. Between 1995 and 2009, 49 million TB patients were treated under the DOTS/Stop TB Strategy. This saved 4.6–6.3 million lives, including those of 0.23–0.28 million children and 1.4–1.7 million women of childbearing age. A further 1 million lives could be saved annually by 2015.

Conclusion

Improvements in TB care and control since 1995 have greatly reduced TB mortality, saved millions of lives and brought within reach the global target of halving TB deaths by 2015 relative to 1990. Intensified efforts to reduce deaths among HIV+ TB cases are needed, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Introducing rapid diagnostic tests for malaria to drug shops in Uganda: a cluster-randomized controlled trial

Objective

To evaluate the impact – on diagnosis and treatment of malaria – of introducing rapid diagnostic tests to drug shops in eastern Uganda.

Methods

Overall, 2193 households in 79 study villages with at least one licensed drug shop were enrolled and monitored for 12 months. After 3 months of monitoring, drug shop vendors in 67 villages randomly selected for the intervention were offered training in the use of malaria rapid diagnostic tests and – if trained – offered access to such tests at a subsidized price. The remaining 12 study villages served as controls. A difference-in-differences regression model was used to estimate the impact of the intervention.

Findings

Vendors from 92 drug shops successfully completed training and 50 actively stocked and performed the rapid tests. Over 9 months, trained vendors did an average of 146 tests per shop. Households reported 22 697 episodes of febrile illness. The availability of rapid tests at local drug shops significantly increased the probability of any febrile illness being tested for malaria by 23.15% (P = 0.015) and being treated with an antimalarial drug by 8.84% (P = 0.056). The probability that artemisinin combination therapy was bought increased by a statistically insignificant 5.48% (P = 0.574).

Conclusion

In our study area, testing for malaria was increased by training drug shop vendors in the use of rapid tests and providing them access to such tests at a subsidized price. Additional interventions may be needed to achieve a higher coverage of testing and a higher rate of appropriate responses to test results.     

Estimating the measles effective reproduction number in Australia from routine notification data

Objective

To estimate the measles effective reproduction number (R) in Australia by modelling routinely collected notification data.

Methods

R was estimated for 2009–2011 by means of three methods, using data from Australia’s National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Method 1 estimated R as 1 − P, where P equals the proportion of cases that were imported, as determined from data on place of acquisition. The other methods estimated R by fitting a subcritical branching process that modelled the spread of an infection with a given R to the observed distributions of outbreak sizes (method 2) and generations of spread (method 3). Stata version 12 was used for method 2 and Matlab version R2012 was used for method 3. For all methods, calculation of 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was performed using a normal approximation based on estimated standard errors.

Findings

During 2009–2011, 367 notifiable measles cases occurred in Australia (mean annual rate: 5.5 cases per million population). Data were 100% complete for importation status but 77% complete for outbreak reference number. R was estimated as < 1 for all years and data types, with values of 0.65 (95% CI: 0.60–0.70) obtained by method 1, 0.64 (95% CI: 0.56–0.72) by method 2 and 0.47 (95% CI: 0.38–0.57) by method 3.

Conclusion

The fact that consistent estimates of R were obtained from all three methods enhances confidence in the validity of these methods for determining R.     

Mothers Understand And Can do it (MUAC): a comparison of mothers and community health workers determining mid-upper arm circumference in 103 children aged from 6?months to 5?years

Background

Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) was recently endorsed and recommended for screening for acute malnutrition in the community. The objective of this study was to determine whether a colour-banded MUAC strap would allow minimally trained mothers to screen their own children for malnutrition, without locating the mid-point of the left upper arm by measurement, as currently recommended.

Methods

A non-randomised non-blinded evaluation of mothers’ performance when measuring MUAC after minimal training, compared with trained Community Health Workers (CHW) following current MUAC protocols. The study was conducted in 2 villages in Mirriah, Zinder region, Niger where mothers classified one of their children (n = 103) aged 6–59 months (the current age range for admission into community malnutrition programs) using the MUAC tape.

Results

Mothers’ had a sensitivity and specificity for classification of their child’s nutritional status of > 90% and > 80% respectively for global acute malnutrition (GAM, defined by a MUAC < 125 mm) and > 73% and > 98% for severe acute malnutrition (SAM, defined by a MUAC < 115 mm). The few children misclassified as not having SAM, were classified as having moderate acute malnutrition (MAM). The choice of arm did not influence the classification results; weighted Kappa of 0.88 for mothers and 0.91 for CHW represent almost perfect agreement. Errors occurred at the class boundaries and no gross errors were made.

Conclusions

Advanced SAM is associated with severe complications, which often require hospital admission or cause death. Mothers (with MUAC tapes costing $0.06) can screen their children frequently allowing early diagnosis and treatment thereby becoming the focal point in scaling-up community management of acute malnutrition.

Trial registration

The trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov (Trial number {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01790815","term_id":"NCT01790815"}}NCT01790815)     

Mortality and morbidity patterns in under-five children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in Zambia: a five-year retrospective review of hospital-based records (2009–2013)

Background

Severe acute malnutrition has continued to be growing problem in Sub Saharan Africa. We investigated the factors associated with morbidity and mortality of under-five children admitted and managed in hospital for severe acute malnutrition.

Methods

It was a retrospective quantitative review of hospital based records using patient files, ward death and discharge registers. It was conducted focussing on demographic, clinical and mortality data which was extracted on all children aged 0–60 months admitted to the University Teaching Hospital in Zambia from 2009 to 2013. Cox proportional Hazards regression was used to identify predictors of mortality and Kaplan Meier curves where used to predict the length of stay on the ward.

Results

Overall (n = 9540) under-five children with severe acute malnutrition were admitted during the period under review, comprising 5148 (54%) males and 4386 (46%) females. Kwashiorkor was the most common type of severe acute malnutrition (62%) while diarrhoea and pneumonia were the most common co-morbidities. Overall mortality was at 46% with children with marasmus having the lowest survival rates on Kaplan Meier graphs. HIV infected children were 80% more likely to die compared to HIV uninfected children (HR = 1.8; 95%CI: 1.6-1.2). However, over time (2009–2013), admissions and mortality rates declined significantly (mortality 51% vs. 35%, P < 0.0001).

Conclusions

We find evidence of declining mortality among the core morbid nutritional conditions, namely kwashiorkor, marasmus and marasmic-kwashiorkor among under-five children admitted at this hospital. The reasons for this are unclear or could be beyond the scope of this study. This decline in numbers could be either be associated with declining admissions or due to the interventions that have been implemented at community level to combat malnutrition such as provision of “Ready to Use therapeutic food” and prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV at health centre level. Strategies that enhance and expand growth monitoring interventions at community level to detect malnutrition early to reduce incidence of severe cases and mortality need to be strengthened.     

Screening for tuberculosis and testing for human immunodeficiency virus in Zambian prisons

Objective

To improve the Zambia Prisons Service’s implementation of tuberculosis screening and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing.

Methods

For both tuberculosis and HIV, we implemented mass screening of inmates and community-based screening of those residing in encampments adjacent to prisons. We also established routine systems – with inmates as peer educators – for the screening of newly entered or symptomatic inmates. We improved infection control measures, increased diagnostic capacity and promoted awareness of tuberculosis in Zambia’s prisons.

Findings

In a period of 9 months, we screened 7638 individuals and diagnosed 409 new patients with tuberculosis. We tested 4879 individuals for HIV and diagnosed 564 cases of infection. An additional 625 individuals had previously been found to be HIV-positive. Including those already on tuberculosis treatment at the time of screening, the prevalence of tuberculosis recorded in the prisons and adjacent encampments – 6.4% (6428/100 000) – is 18 times the national prevalence estimate of 0.35%. Overall, 22.9% of the inmates and 13.8% of the encampment residents were HIV-positive.

Conclusion

Both tuberculosis and HIV infection are common within Zambian prisons. We enhanced tuberculosis screening and improved the detection of tuberculosis and HIV in this setting. Our observations should be useful in the development of prison-based programmes for tuberculosis and HIV elsewhere.     

Excess child mortality after discharge from hospital in Kilifi, Kenya: a retrospective cohort analysis

Objective

To explore excess paediatric mortality after discharge from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and its duration and risk factors.

Methods

Hospital and demographic data were used to describe post-discharge mortality and survival probability in children aged < 15 years, by age group and clinical syndrome. Cox regression models were developed to identify risk factors.

Findings

In 2004–2008, approximately 111 000 children were followed for 555 000 person–years. We analysed 14 971 discharges and 535 deaths occurring within 365 days of discharge. Mortality was higher in the post-discharge cohort than in the community cohort (age-adjusted rate ratio, RR: 7.7; 95% confidence interval, CI: 6.6–8.9) and declined little over time. An increased post-discharge mortality hazard was found in children aged < 5 years with the following: weight-for-age Z score < −4 (hazard ratio, HR: 6.5); weight-for-age Z score > −4 but < −3 (HR: 3.4); hypoxia (HR: 2.3); bacteraemia (HR: 1.8); hepatomegaly (HR: 2.3); jaundice (HR: 1.8); hospital stay > 13 days (HR: 1.8). Older age was protective (reference < 1 month): 6–23 months, HR: 0.8; 2–4 years, HR: 0.6. Children with at least one risk factor accounted for 545 (33%) of the 1655 annual discharges and for 39 (47%) of the 83 discharge-associated deaths.

Conclusion

Hospital admission selects vulnerable children with a sustained increased risk of dying. The risk factors identified provide an empiric basis for effective outpatient follow-up.