Social disadvantages in childhood and risk of all-cause death and cardiovascular disease in later life: a comparison of historical and retrospective childhood information

BACKGROUND: Childhood socioeconomic circumstances have been shown to contribute to adult mortality. The purpose of this study was to compare the association between objective historical records and recalled questionnaire-based information on childhood socioeconomic position (SEP) with regard to cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. METHODS: We examined the association between a socially disadvantaged childhood and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, and acute coronary events among male participants in the Kuopio Ischemic Heart Disease (KIHD) Risk Factor Study, a population-based cohort study in eastern Finland with follow-up until 2002. The historical data on childhood factors were collected from school health records (n = 698), mainly from the 1930s to the 1950s. Recall data on socioeconomic conditions in childhood were obtained from the baseline examinations of the KIHD cohort (n = 2,682) in 1984-89. RESULTS: According to original school health records the men who were socially disadvantaged in childhood had a 1.41-fold (95% confidence interval 1.01-1.97) age-adjusted and examination-year-adjusted risk of all-cause death, a 1.32-fold (0.83-2.11) risk of CVD death, a 1.48-fold (0.85-2.57) risk of CHD death, and a 1.50-fold (1.02-2.20) risk of acute coronary events. After adjustment for biological and behavioural risk factors and for the SEP in adulthood the association was attenuated in all-cause death but did not change in CVD death, CHD death, and acute coronary events. On the contrary, the questionnaire-based recalled childhood data on childhood SEP showed no associations with mortality or acute coronary events. CONCLUSIONS: With regard to adult mortality, the use of historical records concerning hygiene and living conditions collected in childhood may either provide more accurate measures of early-life socioeconomic conditions or capture more relevant aspects of childhood socioeconomic disadvantage than retrospective recall data.     

Estimating long-term trends in the incidence and prevalence of opiate use/injecting drug use and the number of former users: back-calculation methods and opiate overdose deaths

The authors explored an age-specific back-calculation approach to estimating long-term trends in the incidence and prevalence of opiate use/injecting drug use (IDU) in England for 1968-2000. The incidence of opiate use/IDU was estimated by combining information on the observed opiate overdose deaths of persons aged 15-44 years with knowledge on the distribution of the time between starting opiate use/IDU and death by overdose (incubation time distribution). The resulting incidence, together with the incubation time distribution, other drug-related mortality, and the general age-specific mortality rate, was then used to estimate the prevalence of current and former users. Provisional estimates suggested two major increases in incidence in the late 1970s and early 1990s, with models including information on age at death suggesting a recent decline since 1997 and that prevalence of opiate use/IDU increased substantially in the 1990s. Results were crucially dependent on assumptions about key parameters of the back-calculation framework. In theory, the approach is a valuable addition to the portfolio of indirect methods for estimating incidence and prevalence of dependent opiate use/IDU. In practice, its full potential will be realized only once better information on the process of stopping opiate use/IDU becomes available and more precise estimates of current and historical overdose mortality are obtained.     

The widening gap in mortality by educational level in the Russian Federation, 1980-2001

Objectives. We examined trends in the relation between educational level and adult mortality in the Russian Federation in the period 1989 through 2001.

Methods. We used a convenience cohort based on survey respondents’ information about age, survival status, and educational level of close relatives, and applied modified indirect demographic techniques to stratify mortality rates by educational level in the study period. A random sample of 7172 respondents (response rate=61%) provided full information on 10440 relatives.

Results. The mortality advantage of better-educated men and women in 1980 increased substantially by 2001. In 1980, life expectancy at age 20 for university-educated men was 3 years greater than for men with elementary education only, but was 11 years greater by 2001, reflecting not only declining life expectancy in less-educated men but also an improvement among better-educated men. Similar patterns were seen in women.

Conclusions. The well-documented mortality increases seen in Russia after 1990 have predominantly affected less-educated men and women, whereas the mortality of persons with university education has improved, resulting in a sharp increase in educational-level mortality differentials.

     

Classifying ethnicity utilizing the Canadian mortality data base

The study of ethnic differences in disease is a methodological challenge as ethnicity is often not identified in existing datasets and surrogate measures need to be used. We have developed a novel methodology combining last name and country of birth to study mortality patterns of Canadians of South Asian (SA) and Chinese (CH) ethnic origin and have compared death rates among SA, CH, and White (WH) Canadians.

Methods. SA and CH were identified in the Canadian Mortality Data Base (CMDB) using the last name and country of birth of the deceased. Records of people who had been born in countries with large South Asian and Chinese populations (e.g. India, Pakistan, China, Hong Kong) were selected and manually screened by last name. A name directory was then created of distinct South Asian and Chinese names and this directory was used to search all other records in the CMDB for SA and CH deaths. Where necessary, other identifying characteristics such as first name and parents’ last name were also used. Population counts were obtained from the Census self‐reported question on ethnicity for SA and CH. WH were identified as non‐immigrant Canadians who were neither SA nor CH. The method of assigning ethnicity in the CMDB and Census were assessed for comparability and issues of validity and reliability were addressed.

Results. Using this method, 10 989 SA and 21 548 CH deaths were identified. There was marked heterogeneity in birthplace, with only 56% of SA born in South Asia and only 74% of CH born in Greater China. Last names had high validity for self‐reported ethnicity in a population sample of SA and were highly reproducible. Mortality rates varied dramatically between groups studied. SA and WH had high rates of ischemic heart disease while stroke mortality was similar among all three groups. Cancer death rates were high in CH and WH and much lower in SA.

Conclusion. Last names and country of birth can be used to determined ethnicity of SA and CH with validity and reliability, and leads to a more accurate classification than country of birth alone. The contrasting patterns observed in mortality from major causes of death suggest many interesting hypotheses for further study.     

In a population-based cohort of diabetes patients, men and women had similar risks for all-cause mortality

OBJECTIVES: To compare death rates of diabetic men and women relative to the general population and to identify sex-specific risk factors for all-cause mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTINGS: In the current historical prospective cohort study, standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for 19,657 men and women with diabetes in a large Israeli health care organization compared to the mortality in the general population from 1999 to 2003. In addition, sex-specific survival analyses were performed for men and women separately using baseline data obtained between 1995 and 1999. RESULTS: During the study follow-up (90,899 person-years), 2,924 deaths were identified. The SMR for diabetic women (1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.33, 1.47) was significantly (P<0.01) higher than for diabetic men (1.20; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.26). Age, glycated hemoglobin, serum creatinine, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, dialysis, use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, and insulin were similarly associated with mortality in both sexes. Residing in the south of Israel was related with higher risk among men but with decreased risk among women. CONCLUSIONS: The study indicates that diabetes seems to eliminate the relative protection against death usually seen in women. It also suggests that most risk factors are comparable between the sexes, underlining the importance of similarly intensive disease management in diabetic women and in diabetic men.     

Nutrient intakes in relation to cancer mortality in Taiwan

To provide more information on the international variations of nutrient intake in relation to cancer mortality rates, we investigated the association between nutrient intake and common cancer mortality rates in Taiwan by using the ecological design. Cancer mortality rates in Taiwan from 1997-2000 were obtained from the Office of Statistics, Department of Health. The data of nutrient intake were obtained from the third national survey (Nutrition and Health Survey in Taiwan; NAHSIT) (1993–1996). Data was drawn from 7 geographical districts. Stomach, lung, prostate, liver, and colorectal cancer mortality rates in men were attributed to regional variations in the consumption of either lipid, calcium, thiamin, and/or vitamin E; breast and liver cancer mortality rates in women were related to the regional variations in consumption of either lipid, carbohydrate, calcium, or iron. Not all cancer (i.e., esophageal cancer in men and women; stomach, lung, and colorectal cancer in women) mortality rates could be explained by the regional variations in the consumption of nutrients. Time-lag and potential confounders might be considered in the ecological study.     

Differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality in south–central Canada. Part II: future estimates

This paper forms the second part of an introduction to a synoptic weather typing approach to assess differential and combined impacts of extreme temperatures and air pollution on human mortality, focusing on future estimates. A statistical downscaling approach was used to downscale daily five general circulation model (GCM) outputs (three Canadian and two US GCMs) and to derive six-hourly future climate information for the selected cities (Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, and Windsor) in south–central Canada. Discriminant function analysis was then used to project the future weather types, based on historical analysis defined in a companion paper (Part I). Future air pollution concentrations were estimated using the within-weather-type historical simulation models applied to the downscaled future GCM climate data. Two independent approaches, based on (1) comparing future and historical frequencies of the weather groups and (2) applying within-weather-group elevated mortality prediction models, were used to assess climate change impacts on elevated mortality for two time windows (2040–2059 and 2070–2089). Averaging the five GCM scenarios, across the study area, heat-related mortality is projected to be more than double by the 2050s and triple by the 2080s from the current condition. Cold-related mortality could decrease by about 45–60% and 60–70% by the 2050s and the 2080s, respectively. Air pollution-related mortality could increase about 20–30% by the 2050s and 30–45% by the 2080s, due to increased air pollution levels projected with climate change. The increase in air pollution-related mortality would be largely driven by increases in ozone effects. The population acclimatization to increased heat was also assessed in this paper, which could reduce future heat-related mortality by 40%. It is most likely that the estimate of future extreme temperature- and air pollution-related mortality from this study could represent a bottom-line figure since many of the factors (e.g., population growth, age structure changes, and adaptation measures) were not directly taken into account in the analyses.     

Is radiographic vertebral fracture a risk factor for mortality?

Clinical fractures predict increased mortality risk, but few studies report mortality based on prevalent radiographically defined vertebral fracture. This study examined whether radiographically defined vertebral fracture is a risk factor for mortality in older adults. The 1,580 participants in California (631 men, 949 women) were aged > or =50 years in 1992-1996. Lateral spine radiographs, and information about medical history and behaviors, were obtained. Overall, 55 (8.7%) men and 123 (13%) women had at least one prevalent fracture at baseline; of these, 48 women and 14 men had two or more. Over 7.6 years, 460 participants died, 27.6% without and 41.0% with prevalent fractures (p < 0.001). Prevalent vertebral fracture was not associated with all-cause mortality in both sexes combined (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.09, 95% confidence interval: 0.84, 1.42) or sex-specific analyses (women: adjusted hazard ratio = 1.15, 95% confidence interval: 0.83, 1.59; men: adjusted hazard ratio = 0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.55, 1.46). However, women with two or more prevalent fractures had increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 2.40; p = 0.04). Women with any prevalent vertebral fractures also had increased mortality risk from "other" causes (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 2.45; p = 0.04) but not cardiovascular disease or cancer. A single radiographic vertebral fracture is not a risk for mortality in older women; larger, longer studies of men and those with two or more radiographic vertebral fractures are needed.     

A cohort study to estimate occupational mortality risks in Navarra

BACKGROUND: Few studies on occupational mortality have been conducted in Spain. The objective of this work was to analyse inequalities on global mortality and on mortality due to specific causes according to occupation in a historical cohort of males from the province of Navarra, Spain. METHODS: The base population for this historical cohort comprised all employed men over age 34 from Navarra in the 1986 population register. Age-standardised point estimates and confidence intervals for occupational-specific mortality risks were computed. RESULTS: There exist differences in mortality risks with respect to the overall risk of Navarra in certain occupational activities for several major causes of mortality. Some of the results corroborate previous findings in other works, such as the significant high risk that presents in leather, clothing workers and shoemakers when analysing kidney, bladder and other urinary malignant tumours, while others present a certain degree of novelty. CONCLUSION: This work contributes to filling the gap in the lack of works on occupational mortality in Spain. It also complements the information that other monitoring systems may provide on occupational health.     

Mortality of workers potentially exposed to organic and inorganic brominated chemicals, DBCP, TRIS, PBB, and DDT

A historical prospective mortality study was conducted on 3579 white male workers employed between 1935 and 1976 with potential exposures to brominated compounds including 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP), Tris (2,3-dibromopropyl) phosphate, polybrominated biphenyls (PBB), various organic and inorganic bromides, and DDT. The vital status as of 31 December 1976 was determined for 3384 (95%) of these workers: 2806 (79%) were still living and 578 (16%) had died. Death certificates were obtained for 541 deaths (94% of all deaths). The mortality experience of the entire cohort and several subcohorts was compared with that of United States white men adjusted for age and calendar time. The comparison statistic was the commonly used standardised mortality ratio (SMR). Historical industrial hygiene data were not available, and the workers were classified by their work areas or departments in order to estimate their potential exposures. Overall mortality for the entire cohort and several subgroups was significantly lower than expected. For the entire cohort, significant mortality deficits were observed in diseases of the circulatory system, non-malignant respiratory disease, and diseases of the digestive system. On the other hand, mortality from diabetes mellitus was significantly raised for the cohort. No significant overall or cause-specific mortality excess was detected among employees potentially exposed to either TRIS or DDT. A significant mortality excess due to diseases of the circulatory system was observed among workers potentially exposed to DBCP. Mortality from testicular cancer was significantly higher than expected among those potentially exposed to other organic bromides. The common potential exposure of those who had died of testicular cancer was methyl bromide. Owing to the lack of accurate historical exposure information and the fact that many workers were potentially exposed to a multitude of chemicals, it is difficult to draw definitive statements on the causations of the observed mortality excesses.     

Mortality of workers potentially exposed to organic and inorganic brominated chemicals, DBCP, TRIS, PBB, and DDT.

A historical prospective mortality study was conducted on 3579 white male workers employed between 1935 and 1976 with potential exposures to brominated compounds including 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP), Tris (2,3-dibromopropyl) phosphate, polybrominated biphenyls (PBB), various organic and inorganic bromides, and DDT. The vital status as of 31 December 1976 was determined for 3384 (95%) of these workers: 2806 (79%) were still living and 578 (16%) had died. Death certificates were obtained for 541 deaths (94% of all deaths). The mortality experience of the entire cohort and several subcohorts was compared with that of United States white men adjusted for age and calendar time. The comparison statistic was the commonly used standardised mortality ratio (SMR). Historical industrial hygiene data were not available, and the workers were classified by their work areas or departments in order to estimate their potential exposures. Overall mortality for the entire cohort and several subgroups was significantly lower than expected. For the entire cohort, significant mortality deficits were observed in diseases of the circulatory system, non-malignant respiratory disease, and diseases of the digestive system. On the other hand, mortality from diabetes mellitus was significantly raised for the cohort. No significant overall or cause-specific mortality excess was detected among employees potentially exposed to either TRIS or DDT. A significant mortality excess due to diseases of the circulatory system was observed among workers potentially exposed to DBCP. Mortality from testicular cancer was significantly higher than expected among those potentially exposed to other organic bromides. The common potential exposure of those who had died of testicular cancer was methyl bromide. Owing to the lack of accurate historical exposure information and the fact that many workers were potentially exposed to a multitude of chemicals, it is difficult to draw definitive statements on the causations of the observed mortality excesses.     

聚焦超声治疗外阴上皮内非瘤变效果及临床意义的探讨

目的探讨聚焦超声治疗外阴上皮内非瘤变(vulvar intraepithelial nonneoplasia,VINN)的效果及临床意义。方法纳入成都市锦江大观医院2010年1月至2012年1月经聚焦超声治疗的VINN患者47例(超声组),2007年12月至2009年12月经微波治疗的VINN患者42例(微波组),比较两组治疗效果,分析其临床意义。结果治愈率、总有效率超声组明显高于微波组,差异有统计学意义(P﹤0.05)。两组治疗无不良反应发生,追踪观察未见疾病恶变。结论聚焦超声治疗VINN不仅效果明显、安全,对防止该病转化为外阴癌也起了重要作用。     

Evaluation of the impact of the heat wave in the summer of 2003 on mortality

The effect of the elevated temperatures experimented in Europe during the summer 2003 on mortality was observed in several countries. This study, carried out in Spain, describes the mortality between the 1st June and the 31st August and evaluates the effect of the heat wave on mortality. Observed deaths were obtained from official vital Registers of the capital city of the 50 provinces. Deaths from 107 randomly selected rural villages were also obtained from the same source. Observed deaths were compared with expected estimated applying a Poisson regression model to historical mortality series adjusting for the upwards trend and seasonality observed. Meteorological information was provided by the National Institute of Meteorology. Spain experienced three heat waves. Total excess deaths associated was 8% (43,212 observed compared with 40,046 expected). Excess deaths were only observed among 65 years old and over (15%). The increased mortality was also observed in rural villages. This phenomenon is becoming an emerging public health problem because of its increasing attributable risk because of the aging of Spanish population. Alert and response systems based on monitoring of climate related risks, emergency rooms activity and mortality and the strengthening of social and health services response capacity should be considered.     

Estimating mortality due to cigarette smoking: two methods, same result

We estimated the mortality from various diseases caused by cigarette smoking using two methods and compared the results. In one method, the "Prevent" model is used to simulate the effect on mortality of the prevalence of cigarette smoking derived retrospectively. The other method, suggested by R. Peto et al (Lancet 1992;339:1268-1278), requires data on mortality from lung cancer among people who have never smoked and among smokers, but it does not require data on the prevalence of smoking. In the Prevent model, 33% of deaths among men and 23% of those among women in 1993 from lung cancer, chronic bronchitis, emphysema, ischemic heart disease, and stroke were caused by cigarette smoking. In the method proposed by Peto et al, 35% of deaths among men and 25% of deaths among women from these causes were estimated to be attributable to cigarette smoking. The differences between the two methods are small and appear to be explicable. The Prevent model can be used for more general scenarios of effective health promotion, but it requires more data than the Peto et al method, which can be used only to estimate mortality related to smoking.     

Application of a dietary pattern approach in the Belgium context

BACKGROUND: Dietary pattern analysis has recently emerged as a new direction and a complementary approach to study the relationship between diet and morbidity or mortality. At present, two methods have been developed to construct dietary patterns: "a priori" method and "a posteriori" method. OBJECTIVE: This paper presents the two methods and their application based on dietary data from the "Belgium Interuniversity on Nutrition and Health Study". METHODS: A prospective study was conducted (1979-1984) in a sample of 5,225 males and 4,476 females from the Belgian population aged 25 to 74 years at the initial survey and followed for 10 years for all causes and specific mortality. Dietary data was collected by a 24-hour recall and for a sub-sample also by a 7 day-diet record. The "a priori" method was used by calculating an index based on the national dietary guidelines. We used the principal component analysis to identify dietary patterns a posteriori. We conducted a first principal component analysis using the data from the 24-hour recall and a second on the data collected by the 7 day-record. RESULTS: Both of the currently used approaches for extracting dietary patterns have advantages and limitations. We applied first the "a priori" approach by calculating an Index (IAR) which measures the adherence of the sample to the Belgian dietary guidelines. We obtained an index that ranged from 0 to 8, a higher score represented a "healthier diet". The index mean (sd) was 3.7 (+/- 1.2) for the entire sample with a significantly higher IAR for women. Using factor analysis, we identified 8 dietary patterns for men and for women. These were difficult to translate in terms of dietary intake profile. Inversely, with the factors identified with the 7 day record, we could find a "western" dietary profile and a "prudent" profile. CONCLUSION: Dietary pattern analysis offers the opportunity to evaluate the overall quality of the diet. The dietary profiles constructed by the two approaches should be related to morbidity or mortality in order to evaluate their predictive capacity.     

Effects of age, period and cohort on stroke mortality among a middle-aged Lithuanian urban population from 1980 to 2004

AIMS: The main purpose of this paper was to assess the effect of age, period, and cohort on stroke mortality rates among a Lithuanian urban population aged 25-64 years (1041 men and 724 women) between 1980 and 2004. METHODS: Routine stroke mortality data were obtained from official Kaunas region mortality register by codes 430-438 and I60-I69 in the 9th and in the 10th revisions of the International Classifications of Diseases (ICD), respectively. Mortality rates per 100,000 persons for men and women were age-adjusted using the age distribution of the European Standard Population. Age-specific mortality rates were analysed by sex, period, and birth cohort in eight 5-year age groups and five 5-year age groups. Goodness of fit of the Poisson regression models were evaluated using Pearson and Freeman-Tukey residuals. The age-period and age-period-cohort models provided a significantly better fit than a model with the factors ;;age' and ;;cohort'. RESULTS: During the study period, mortality rates decreased from 46.8 to 33.0 per 100,000 for men, and from 20.2 to 18.1 per 100,000 for women (average annual decrease of -1.3%, p<0.1 for men, and -1.6%, p<0.03 for women). An age effect was present in both sexes. The definite upward period effect was observed from 1990 to 1994 both among men and women, and was followed by a sharp fall during 2000-4. Cohort and period effects have contained relevant information which partially explained trends in stroke mortality among a 25-64 year-old Lithuanian urban population. CONCLUSIONS: During the period of 1980-2004, the mortality trend declined among women only. The period effect contains relevant information for the explanation of increasing mortality rates during 2000-4 among men and women. The Poisson regression models could be applied for the examination and explanation of the different causes of the population mortality.     

Highly active antiretroviral therapy in Brazil: the challenge of universal access in a context of social inequality.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate trends in AIDS mortality and incidence in Brazil over the period of 1984 to 2000 and to assess the impact of the introduction of universal access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the country in 1996. METHODS: Data from the Brazilian disease notification system and the national mortality information system were used to calculate annual region-specific and sex-specific AIDS incidence and mortality rates. We also calculated sex- and region-specific ratios of the number of AIDS deaths in one year to the number of AIDS cases notified two years earlier. RESULTS: AIDS mortality rates for both men and women and in all five of the geographic regions of Brazil declined following introduction of HAART, despite continued growth in AIDS incidence. The ratio of the number of AIDS deaths in one year to the number of AIDS cases notified two years earlier for men equalized rapidly with the ratio for women following introduction of HAART. More recently, AIDS incidence declined for both sexes and in most of the regions of Brazil. CONCLUSIONS: Despite Brazil's resource limitations and disparities in wealth between men and women and among the country's regions, the introduction of universal access to HAART in Brazil has helped achieve impressive declines in AIDS mortality, and it may also be contributing to declines in AIDS incidence.     

Changing social disparities and mortality in France (1968-1996): cause of death analysis by educational level

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on temporal trend in socioeconomic inequalities in cause of death mortality in France. The aim of this paper was to study educational differences in mortality in France by cause of death and their temporal trend. METHODS: We used a representative sample of 1% of the French population and compared four periods (1968-1974, 1975-1981, 1982-1988, 1990-1996). Causes of death were obtained by direct linkage with the French national death registry. Education was measured at the beginning of each period, and educational disparities in mortality were studied among men and women aged 30-64 at the beginning of each period. Analyses were conducted for all deaths and for the following causes of death: all cancers, lung cancer (among men), upper aerodigestive tract cancers (among men), breast cancer (among women), colorectal cancer, other cancers, cardiovascular diseases, ischaemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, other cardiovascular diseases, external causes, other causes of death. Socioeconomic inequalities were quantified with relative risks and relative indices of inequality. The relative indices of inequality measures socioeconomic inequalities across the population and can be interpreted as the ratio of mortality rates of those with the lowest to those with the highest socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Analyses showed an increase in educational differences in all cause mortality among men (the relative indices of inequality increased from 1.96 to 2.77 from the first to the last period) and among women (the relative indices of inequality increased from 1.87 to 2.53). Socioeconomic inequalities increased for all cause of death studied among women, and for cancer and cardiovascular diseases among men. The contribution of cancer mortality to difference in overall mortality between the lowest and the highest levels of education increased strongly over the whole study period, especially among women. CONCLUSION: This study shows that large socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are observed in France, and that they increase over time among men and women.