Natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms: probability of and risk factors for aneurysm rupture

OBJECT: The authors conducted a study to investigate the long-term natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms and the predictive risk factors determining subsequent rupture in a patient population in which surgical selection of cases was not performed. METHODS: One hundred forty-two patients with 181 unruptured aneurysms were followed from the 1950s until death or the occurrence of subarachnoid hemorrhage or until the years 1997 to 1998. The annual and cumulative incidence of aneurysm rupture as well as several potential risk factors predictive of rupture were studied using life-table analyses and Cox's proportional hazards regression models including time-dependent covariates. The median follow-up time was 19.7 years (range 0.8-38.9 years). During 2575 person-years of follow up, there were 33 first-time episodes of hemorrhage from previously unruptured aneurysms, for an average annual incidence of 1.3%. In 17 patients, hemorrhage led to death. The cumulative rate of bleeding was 10.5% at 10 years, 23% at 20 years, and 30.3% at 30 years after diagnosis. The diameter of the unruptured aneurysm (relative risk [RR] 1.11 per mm in diameter, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1-1.23, p = 0.05) and patient age at diagnosis inversely (RR 0.97 per year, 95% CI 0.93-1, p = 0.05) were significant independent predictors for a subsequent aneurysm rupture after adjustment for sex, hypertension, and aneurysm group. Active smoking status at the time of diagnosis was a significant risk factor for aneurysm rupture (RR 1.46, 95% CI 1.04-2.06, p = 0.033) after adjustment for size of the aneurysm, patient age, sex, presence of hypertension, and aneurysm group. Active smoking status as a time-dependent covariate was an even more significant risk factor for aneurysm rupture (adjusted RR 3.04, 95% CI 1.21-7.66, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette smoking, size of the unruptured intracranial aneurysm, and age, inversely, are important factors determining risk for subsequent aneurysm rupture. The authors conclude that such unruptured aneurysms should be surgically treated regardless of their size and of a patient's smoking status, especially in young and middle-aged adults, if this is technically possible and if the patient's concurrent diseases are not contraindications. Cessation of smoking may also be a good alternative to surgery in older patients with small-sized aneurysms.     

Natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms: probability of and risk factors for aneurysm rupture

OBJECT: The authors conducted a study to investigate the long-term natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms and the predictive risk factors determining subsequent rupture in a patient population in which surgical selection of cases was not performed. METHODS: One hundred forty-two patients with 181 unruptured aneurysms were followed from the 1950s until death or the occurrence of subarachnoid hemorrhage or until the years 1997 to 1998. The annual and cumulative incidence of aneurysm rupture as well as several potential risk factors predictive of rupture were studied using lifetable analyses and Cox's proportional hazards regression models including time-dependent covariates. The median follow-up time was 19.7 years (range 0.8-38.9 years). During 2575 person-years of follow up, there were 33 first-time episodes of hemorrhage from previously unruptured aneurysms, for an average annual incidence of 1.3%. In 17 patients, hemorrhage led to death. The cumulative rate of bleeding was 10.5% at 10 years, 23% at 20 years, and 30.3% at 30 years after diagnosis. The diameter of the unruptured aneurysm (relative risk [RR] 1.11 per mm in diameter, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1-1.23, p = 0.05) and patient age at diagnosis inversely (RR 0.97 per year, 95% CI 0.93-1, p = 0.05) were significant independent predictors for a subsequent aneurysm rupture after adjustment for sex, hypertension, and aneurysm group. Active smoking status at the time of diagnosis was a significant risk factor for aneurysm rupture (RR 1.46, 95% CI 1.04-2.06, p = 0.033) after adjustment for size of the aneurysm, patient age, sex, presence of hypertension, and aneurysm group. Active smoking status as a time-dependent covariate was an even more significant risk factor for aneurysm rupture (adjusted RR 3.04, 95% CI 1.21-7.66, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette smoking, size of the unruptured intracranial aneurysm, and age, inversely, are important factors determining risk for subsequent aneurysm rupture. The authors conclude that such unruptured aneurysms should be surgically treated regardless of their size and of a patient's smoking status, especially in young and middle-aged adults, if this is technically possible and if the patient's concurrent diseases are not contraindications. Cessation of smoking may also be a good alternative to surgery in older patients with small-sized aneurysms.     

Risk factors for the association of intracranial and aortic aneurysms

Summary This study investigated the association of intracranial aneurysms and abdominal aortic aneurysms to elucidate the incidence and independent risk factors for this association. Ultrasonography of the abdominal aorta was performed in 181 patients with 224 intracranial aneurysms. Six patients had suffered subarachnoid haemorrhage and the others had chronic disease or no symptoms. Magnetic resonance angiography was performed for confirmation if abdominal aortic aneurysm was identified by ultrasonography. Thirteen patients (7.2%) with 23 intracranial aneurysms had abdominal aortic aneurysms. Univariate analysis demonstrated that age (p < 0.01), size of intracranial aneurysms (p < 0.001), male sex (p < 0.01), multiplicity of intracranial aneurysms (p < 0.001), history of cerebrovascular diseases (p < 0.05), and current smoking (p < 0.0001) were significantly different between patients with and without this association. Multiple logistic analysis indicated that age (odds ratio [OR] 1.27, 95% confidence interval 1.08–1.48, p < 0.01), multiplicity (OR 22.1, 95% confidence interval 1.83–266.3, p = 0.01), size of intracranial aneurysms (OR 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.10–0.54, p < 0.01), and current smoking (OR 33.3, 95% confidence interval 2.43–456.7, p = 0.01) were independent risk factors for the association. Patients with intracranial aneurysms who are older males with multiple or large intracranial aneurysms, and current smokers should be examined for abdominal aortic aneurysms using ultrasonography.     

Excimer laser-assisted bypass in aneurysm treatment: short-term outcomes

OBJECT: If clip application or coil placement for treatment of intracranial aneurysms is not feasible, the parent vessel can be occluded to induce thrombosis of the aneurysm. The Excimer laser-assisted anastomosis technique allows the construction of a high-flow bypass in patients who cannot tolerate such an occlusion. The authors assessed the complications of this procedure and clinical outcomes after the construction of high-flow bypasses in patients with intracranial aneurysms. METHODS: Data were retrospectively collected on patient and aneurysm characteristics, procedural complications, and functional outcomes in 77 patients in whom a high-flow bypass was constructed. Logistic regression analysis was used to quantify the relationships between patient and aneurysm characteristics on the one hand and outcome measures on the other. Fifty-one patients harbored a giant aneurysm, 24 patients suffered from a ruptured aneurysm, and 35 patients from an unruptured symptomatic aneurysm. In 22 patients (29%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 19-40%) a permanent deficit developed from an operative complication. At a median follow-up period of 2.5 months, 25 patients (32%; 95% CI 22-44%) were dependent or had died; in 10 of these patients (13% of all patients; 95% CI 6-23%) operative complications were the single cause of this poor outcome. Univariate analysis demonstrated that a poor clinical condition before treatment (odds ratio [OR] 4.7; 95% CI 1.7-13.3) and a history of cardiovascular disease (OR 4.1; 95% CI 1-16.2) increased the risk of poor outcome. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that only the clinical condition before treatment was significantly related to outcome (OR 4; 95% CI 1.3-11.9). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with an intracranial aneurysm that cannot be treated by clip application or coil placement, and in whom occlusion of the parent artery cannot be tolerated, the construction of a high-flow bypass should be considered. This procedure carries a considerable risk of complications, but this should be weighed against the disabling or life-threatening effects of compression, the high risk of rupture, and the substantial chance of poor outcome after the rupture of such aneurysms.     

Ruptured de novo intracranial aneurysms

Summary Objective. We describe the actual state of ruptured de novo intracranial aneurysms to contribute to a guideline of follow-up for the patients with treated intracranial aneurysm.Methods. The authors retrospectively investigated 12 cases drawn from 483 consecutive cases of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage at our institute over a period of 22 years, in which a previously undemonstrated (hence de novo) intracranial saccular aneurysm formed and ruptured after successful treatment of a prior aneurysm.Findings. The 12 cases constitute 2.5% of the 483 patients who left our hospital alive. Eleven cases were females and one was a male with a mean age of 55.7 years (range 29–75) at the first subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) and an interval between the first and the second rupture of 10.7 years (range: 2.6–23.8, standard deviation: 6.86, 95% confidence interval: 6.39–15.1). Four cases did not have risk factors such as hypertension, family history, smoking, multiple aneurysms, and moyamoya disease. None of these ruptured de novo aneurysms was at the same location as the original lesion. One-third (4 cases) of the de novo lesions in our series were found on the opposite side to each prior lesion.Interpretation. For not only young but also elder patients with a treated aneurysm (from the fifth decade to the sixth), especially for women, late angiography or alternative modalities of less-invasive examination should be considered. To detect de novo intracranial aneurysms before rupture, the search for a de novo aneurysm should be performed within 6.39 years after a previous examination that shows an aneurysm to be nonexistent, in view of the 95% confidence interval of the mean time to de novo aneurysmal rupture (6.39–15.1 years). If applied this survey, 75% (8 cases of 12 cases) of our de novo aneurysms would be detected before rupture.     

Relation between size of aneurysms and risk of rebleeding in patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage

Summary Background and purpose. Few risk factors have been identified for rebleeding in patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage. We studied whether size of aneurysm after rupture is a risk factor for rebleeding. Since intracranial aneurysms develop during life and may therefore be larger at an older age, we also assessed whether age confounds a relation between size and rebleeding. Methods. We studied all patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage admitted between 1995 and 2000. Since 1995 CT-angiography is obtained in all patients on admission. Patients were followed until rebleeding, operation, discharge or death. For the relation between size and risk of rebleeding we used Cox proportional hazards modelling. Results. We included 354 patients. Rebleeding occurred in 22 (30%) of the 73 patients with a large (>10 mm) aneurysm, and in 68 (24%) of the 281 patients with a small (≤10 mm) aneurysm (hazard ratio for large aneurysms 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0–2.6)). Within the first three days rebleeding occurred in 14 (19.2%) patients with a large aneurysm and in 25 (8.9%) patients with a small aneurysm (hazard ratio 2.4 (95% CI 1.2–4.5)). After adjustment for age, all hazard ratios remained essentially the same. Conclusion. Patients with large aneurysms have a higher risk for rebleeding, in particular within the first three days after the initial haemorrhage. This increased risk is independent of age.     

Risk factors for the formation of multiple intracranial aneurysms

OBJECT: Several factors are known to increase the risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and spontaneous intracerebral hematoma. However, information on the roles of these same factors in the formation of multiple aneurysms is less well defined. The purpose of this study was to examine factors associated with an increased risk of multiple aneurysm formation. METHODS: A retrospective review of the medical records of all patients with a diagnosis of SAH and intracranial aneurysms who were admitted to a single institution between 1985 and 1997 was undertaken. The authors examined associations between risk factors (patient age and sex, menopausal state of female patients, hypertension, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes mellitus, and family history of cerebrovascular disease) and the presence of multiple aneurysms by using the Fisher exact test and logistic regression analysis. Of 400 patients admitted with a diagnosis of cerebral aneurysms, 392 were included in the study (287 women and 105 men). Two hundred eighty-four patients harbored a single aneurysm and 108 harbored multiple aneurysms (2 aneurysms in 68 patients, three aneurysms in 22 patients, four aneurysms in 13 patients, and five aneurysms in five patients). CONCLUSIONS: Statistical analysis revealed that, as opposed to the occurrence of a single aneurysm, there was a significant association between the presence of multiple aneurysms and hypertension (p < 0.001), cigarette smoking (p < 0.001), family history of cerebrovascular disease (p < 0.001), female sex (p < 0.001), and postmenopausal state in female patients (p < 0.001).     

Small unruptured aneurysm verification (SUAVe Study, Japan)--interim report

A prospective study (SUAVe Study, Japan) is in progress at 13 national hospitals to determine the surgical indications for small unruptured intracranial aneurysm. These hospitals are observing the natural history of small unruptured aneurysms (under 5 mm diameter) without surgical treatment. Since October 2000, 455 aneurysms (393 patients) with 75 aneurysms excluded by film judgment committees have been registered, of which 380 aneurysms (329 cases) have been followed up for a mean of 13.8 months (5 aneurysms for 36 months, 68 for 24 months, 164 for 12 months, and 64 for 6 months). Four aneurysms have already ruptured (3 multiple and 1 single). The annual rupture rate was 0.8% (95% confidence interval 0.2-3%). Another 18 aneurysms have enlarged including seven aneurysms treated for enlargement over 2 mm in size. Considering this finding, the annual rupture rate might rise slightly. The important factors for rupture and enlargement were multiplicity of aneurysm, female, patient aged over 70 years old, and location of aneurysm (anterior communicating artery, basilar artery). The growth rate may be faster in multiple aneurysms than in single aneurysms.     

Cigarette smoking increases the risk of developing a cerebral aneurysm and of subarachnoid hemorrhage]

Despite recent advances in diagnostic and therapeutic techniques, subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is still a serious condition associated with high mortality and morbidity. There are no effective treatments other than surgical intervention. However, another option for decreasing the occurrence of SAH may be prevention of aneurysms formation and of their rupture by controlling risk factors. Cigarette smoking has been recently shown to be one of the major risk factors for SAH. We investigated whether cigarette smoking increased the risk of developing cerebral aneurysms and of SAH. Degree of smoking was investigated in 182 patients with SAH and in 123 patients with an unruptured cerebral aneurysm incidentally detected during investigation of other diseases. Sixty-nine patients with other diseases who were shown to be free of cerebral aneurysms through MR angiography served as controls. Smoking significantly increased the risk of both aneurysm formation and SAH; The odds ratio for SAH was 2.4, and for unruptured cerebral aneurysm 1.7. Smoking especially increased the occurrence of SAH in women and in youngsters. However, smoking did not influence the occurrence of cerebral vasospasm and multiplicity of aneurysms. These data suggest the importance of avoiding smoking to prevent the occurrence of cerebral aneurysms and of SAH.     

Risk of rupture of postangiographic femoral false aneurysm.

The surgical management of 50 false aneurysms caused by transfemoral arterial catheterization was reviewed to document the incidence and effects of rupture before repair. Twelve false aneurysms ruptured, leading to shock in six patients, distal ischaemia in three and stroke in one. The mean(s.d.) time from catheterization to rupture was 2.8(1.7) (range 1-6) days. Postoperative complications occurred in seven patients with ruptured and eight with non-ruptured aneurysms (P < 0.04). The mean(s.d.) age of patients with ruptured aneurysms was 67.2(6.3) (95 per cent confidence interval 63.5-70.8) years and those without 58.5(9.1) (95 per cent confidence interval 55.3-61.7) years (P < 0.008). On multiple regression analysis, age, peripheral vascular disease and raised plasma liver enzyme levels on admission were found to be significant independent predictive variables for rupture (all P < 0.05). It is recommended that patients with these risk factors undergo urgent operative correction of femoral false aneurysm.     

Rupture of intracranial aneurysms during treatment with Guglielmi detachable coils: incidence, outcome, and risk factors

OBJECT: The aim of this study was to assess the incidence and outcome of procedure-related rupture of intracranial aneurysms in patients treated with Guglielmi detachable coils (GDCs) and to identify risk factors for this complication. METHODS: Procedure-related rupture occurred in seven of 264 treated aneurysms in 239 consecutive patients. Aneurysm size, history of previous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) caused by the treated aneurysm, timing of treatment after SAH, and the use of a temporary occlusion balloon in the seven procedures in which rupture occurred were compared with the remaining 257 procedures, and these findings were correlated with data from 13 studies in the literature, in which results of 2030 aneurysm treatments were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Procedure-related rupture of intracranial aneurysms during GDC treatment occurs in 2.5% of cases and is responsible for 1% of treatment-related deaths. Risk factors are as follows: small aneurysm size, previous SAH, and probably the use of a temporary occlusion balloon.     

Risk factors for the formation and rupture of intracranial saccular aneurysms in Shimane,Japan

BackgroundPrevention of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) can be achieved by reducing risk factors, which include those for aneurysm formation and aneurysm rupture. However, neither of these 2 factors has been discussed separately so far. A case control study was undertaken in Shimane, Japan, to identify modifiable risk factors for the formation and rupture of aneurysms.MethodsThis study included 858 patients with ruptured aneurysms, 285 patients with unruptured aneurysms without a history of SAH, and 798 control subjects. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, hypercholesterolemia, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption were assessed as risk factors by using conditional logistic regression.ResultsAfter adjustment for other risk factors, hypertension was the most powerful risk factor for aneurysm formation, regardless of age and sex, followed by hypercholesterolemia, heart disease, and cigarette smoking, whereas diabetes mellitus and daily drinking were insignificant for aneurysm formation. Hypertension and daily drinking were not related to the risk of aneurysm rupture, regardless of age and sex, whereas cigarette smoking was associated with an increased risk of aneurysm rupture in patients 60 years or older and in men. In contrast, hypercholesterolemia was strongly associated with a decreased risk of rupture, regardless of age and sex, and in patients with small aneurysms (<5 mm). Diabetes mellitus and heart disease were also related to a decreased risk of rupture in patients 60 years or older and in women.ConclusionIdentification of risk factors for aneurysm formation and rupture separately seems to be pivotal for reducing the incidence of SAH.     

Screening for brain aneurysm in the Familial Intracranial Aneurysm study: frequency and predictors of lesion detection

OBJECT: Approximately 20% of patients with an intracranial saccular aneurysm report a family history of intracranial aneurysm (IA) or subarachnoid hemorrhage. A better understanding of predictors of aneurysm detection in familial IA may allow more targeted aneurysm screening strategies. METHODS: The Familial Intracranial Aneurysm (FIA) study is a multicenter study, in which the primary objective is to define the susceptibility genes related to the formation of IA. First-degree relatives (FDRs) of those affected with IA are offered screening with magnetic resonance (MR) angiography if they were previously unaffected, are > or = 30 years of age, and have a history of smoking and/or hypertension. Independent predictors of aneurysm detection on MR angiography were determined using the generalized estimating equation version of logistic regression. RESULTS: Among the first 303 patients screened with MR angiography, 58 (19.1%) had at least 1 IA, including 24% of women and 11.7% of men. Ten (17.2%) of 58 affected patients had multiple aneurysms. Independent predictors of aneurysm detection included female sex (odds ratio [OR] 2.46, p = 0.001), pack-years of cigarette smoking (OR 3.24 for 20 pack-years of cigarette smoking compared with never having smoked, p < 0.001), and duration of hypertension (OR 1.26 comparing those with 10 years of hypertension to those with no hypertension, p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: In the FIA study, among the affected patients' FDRs who are > 30 years of age, those who are women or who have a history of smoking or hypertension are at increased risk of suffering an IA and should be strongly considered for screening.     

A comparison of risk factors in the etiology of mirror and nonmirror multiple intracranial aneurysms

BACKGROUND: Pure mirror intracranial aneurysms represent a subgroup of multiple aneurysm patients where a congenital predisposition may play a major etiologic role. The aim of this study was to compare the pattern of prevalence of known risk factors for aneurysm disease between pure mirror and pure nonmirror multiple aneurysm populations. METHODS: Clinical records of all patients with multiple intracranial aneurysms admitted to our institution between January 1985 and September 2001 were reviewed. Age, localization of aneurysms, gender, and history of cigarette smoking or hypertension were noted and compared using Fisher's exact test and logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: There were 33 patients presented with pure mirror aneurysms (MirAn) and 49 with nonmirror multiple aneurysms (nMirAn). Average age of rupture occurred in the 5th decade in both groups. Female:male ratio was 3.1:1 in MirAn; 2.1:1 in nMirAn. In MirAn patients younger than 40 years it was 1:1. Smoking was the most prevalent risk factor in nMirAn (59.2%). In MirAn this was true only for patients in the 5th or 6th decades (65%), and hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor over that age (62.5%). A total of 80% of mirror aneurysm patients under 40 years had no known extrinsic risk factor, compared with 20% in nMirAn (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in the relative prevalence of risk factors between both groups supports the hypothesis of a different etiologic process occurring in mirror aneurysm disease. Early rupture in patients with no extrinsic risk factors lends support to the role of a congenital predisposition over degenerative causes in these patients.     

Predicting aneurysm enlargement in patients with persistent type II endoleaks

OBJECTIVE: The clinical significance of type II endoleaks is not well understood. Some evidence, however, indicates that some type II endoleaks might result in aneurysm enlargement and rupture. To identify factors that might contribute to aneurysm expansion, we analyzed the influence of several variables on aneurysm growth in patients with persistent type II endoleaks after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR). METHODS: In a series of 348 EVARs performed during a 10-year period, 32 patients (9.2%) developed type II endoleaks that persisted for more than 6 months. Variables analyzed included those defined by the reporting standards for EVAR (SVS/AAVS) as well as other endoleak characteristics. Univariate, receiver operating characteristic curve, and Cox regression analyses were used to determine the association between variables and aneurysm enlargement. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 26.5 months (range, 6-88 months). Thirteen patients (41%) had aneurysm enlargement by 5 mm or more (median increase in diameter, 10 mm), whereas 19 (59%) had stable or shrinking aneurysm diameter. Univariate and Cox regression analyses identified the maximum diameter of the endoleak cavity, ie, the size of the nidus as defined on contrast computed tomography scan, as a significant predictor for aneurysm enlargement (relative risk, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.19; P =.001). The median size of the nidus was 23 mm (range, 13-40 mm) in patients with aneurysm enlargement and 8 mm (range, 5-25 mm) in those without expansion (Mann-Whitney U test, P <.001). Moreover, receiver operating characteristic curve and Cox regression analyses showed that a maximum nidus diameter greater than 15 mm was particularly associated with an increased risk of aneurysm enlargement (relative risk, 11.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-85.8; P =.02). Other risk factors including gender, smoking history, hypertension, need of anticoagulation, aneurysm diameter, type of endograft used, and number or type of collateral vessels were not significant predictors of aneurysm enlargement. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with persistent type II endoleaks after EVAR, the maximum diameter of the endoleak cavity or nidus is an important predictor of aneurysm growth and might indicate the need for more aggressive surveillance as well as earlier treatment.     

Prospective risk of hemorrhage in patients with vertebrobasilar nonsaccular intracranial aneurysm

OBJECT: Nonsaccular intracranial aneurysms (NIAs) are characterized by dilation, elongation, and tortuosity of intracranial arteries. Dilemmas in management exist due to the limited regarding the natural history of this disease entity. The objective of this study was to determine the prospective risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in patients with vertebrobasilar NIAs. METHODS: All patients with vertebrobasilar fusiform or dolichoectatic aneurysms that had been radiographically demonstrated between 1989 and 2001 were identified. These patients' medical records were retrospectively reviewed. A prospective follow-up survey was sent and death certificates were requested. Based on results of neuroimaging studies, the maximal diameter of the involved artery, presence of SAH, and measurements of arterial tortuosity were recorded. Nonsaccular intracranial aneurysms were classified according to their radiographic appearance: fusiform, dolichoectatic, and transitional. Dissecting aneurysms were excluded. The aneurysm rupture rate was calculated based on person-years of follow up. Predictive factors for rupture were evaluated using univariate analysis (p < 0.05). One hundred fifty-nine patients, 74% of whom were men, were identified. The mean age at diagnosis was 64 years (range 20-87 years). Five patients (3%) initially presented with hemorrhage; four of these patients died during follow up. The mean duration of follow up was 4.4 years (692 person-years). Nine patients (6%) experienced hemorrhage after presentation; six hemorrhages were definitely related to the NIA. The prospective annual rupture rate was 0.9% (six patients/692 person-years) overall and 2.3% in those with transitional or fusiform aneurysm subtypes. Evidence of aneurysm enlargement or transitional type of NIA was a significant predictor of lesion rupture. Six patients died within 1 week of experiencing lesion rupture. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of hemorrhage in patients harboring vertebrobasilar NIAs is more common in those with evidence of aneurysm enlargement or a transitional type of aneurysm and carries a significant risk of death.     

Predicting aneurysm rupture probabilities through the application of a computed tomography angiography-derived binary logistic regression model

OBJECT:The goal of this study was to establish a biomathematical model to accurately predict the probability of aneurysm rupture. Biomathematical models incorporate various physical and dynamic phenomena that provide insight into why certain aneurysms grow or rupture. Prior studies have demonstrated that regression models may determine which parameters of an aneurysm contribute to rupture. In this study, the authors derived a modified binary logistic regression model and then validated it in a distinct cohort of patients to assess the model's stability. METHODS:Patients were examined with CT angiography. Three-dimensional reconstructions were generated and aneurysm height, width, and neck size were obtained in 2 orthogonal planes. Forward stepwise binary logistic regression was performed and then applied to a prospective cohort of 49 aneurysms in 37 patients (not included in the original derivation of the equation) to determine the log-odds of rupture for this aneurysm. RESULTS:A total of 279 aneurysms (156 ruptured and 123 unruptured) were observed in 217 patients. Four of 6 linear dimensions and the aspect ratio were significantly larger (each with p < 0.01) in ruptured aneurysms than unruptured aneurysms. Calculated volume and aneurysm location were correlated with rupture risk. Binary logistic regression applied to an independent prospective cohort demonstrated the model's stability, showing 83% sensitivity and 80% accuracy. CONCLUSIONS:This binary logistic regression model of aneurysm rupture identified the status of an aneurysm with good accuracy. The use of this technique and its validation suggests that biomorphometric data and their relationships may be valuable in determining the status of an aneurysm.     

Risk factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE: Cigarette smoking has been demonstrated to increase the risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Whether cessation of smoking decreases this risk remains unclear. We performed a case-control study to examine the effect of smoking and other known risk factors for cerebrovascular disease on the risk of SAH. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of all patients with a diagnosis of SAH (n = 323) admitted to Johns Hopkins Hospital between January 1990 and June 1997. Controls matched for age, sex, and ethnicity (n = 969) were selected from a nationally representative sample of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We determined the independent association between smoking (current and previous) and various cerebrovascular risk factors and SAH by use of multivariate logistic regression analysis. A separate analysis was performed to determine associated risk factors for aneurysmal SAH. RESULTS: Of 323 patients admitted with SAH (mean age, 52.7+/-14 yr; 93 were men), 173 (54%) were hypertensive, 149 (46%) were currently smoking, and 125 (39%) were previous smokers. In the multivariate analysis, both previous smoking (odds ratio [OR], 4.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1-6.5) and current smoking (OR, 5.2; 95% CI, 3.6-7.5) were significantly associated with SAH. Hypertension was also significantly associated with SAH (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.8-3.1). The risk factors for 290 patients with aneurysmal SAH were similar and included hypertension (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.8-3.2), previous smoking (OR, 4.1; 95% CI, 2.7-6.0), and current smoking (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 3.7-7.8). CONCLUSION: Hypertension and cigarette smoking increase the risk for development of SAH, as found in previous studies. However, the increased risk persists even after cessation of cigarette smoking, which suggests the importance of early abstinence from smoking.     

De novo formation and rupture of an azygos pericallosal artery aneurysm. Case report

An azygos pericallosal artery (APCA) aneurysm is a rare anomaly that is closely associated with saccular aneurysms. This is the earliest report to document de novo formation and rupture of an aneurysm at the bifurcation of an unpaired pericallosal trunk. The authors report the case of a woman who presented at the age of 52 years with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) from the rupture of a newly formed APCA bifurcation aneurysm, 7 years after she had undergone surgery to clip a ruptured anterior cerebral artery aneurysm. De novo formation of aneurysms after SAH rarely occurs and certain risk factors like multiple and familial aneurysms, arterial hypertension, or smoking have been postulated. Late follow-up examination with angiography to detect de novo aneurysms should be considered in patients with this vascular anomaly after SAH.     

The relationship of coexisting extranidal aneurysms to intracranial hemorrhage in patients harboring brain arteriovenous malformations

OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that coexisting extranidal arterial aneurysms (EAs) would be associated with an increased risk of incident intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) from brain arteriovenous malformation (BAVM) rupture. METHODS: To determine the presence of EAs and compare the sources and locations of ICH, we retrospectively reviewed the computed tomographic, magnetic resonance imaging, and angiographic studies of patients who presented between 1990 and 1999. EAs were defined as saccular luminal dilations of the parent feeding vessels that were proximally flow-related (i.e., at the circle of Willis), distally flow-related (i.e., distal to the circle of Willis), and unrelated (i.e., in circulation distant from the BAVM). RESULTS: Of 314 BAVM patients, 138 (44%) presented with ICH. In the ICH group, 22 patients (16%) had aneurysmal ICH, 100 (72%) had BAVM ICH, and 16 (12%) had ICH from an indeterminate source. There were 61 patients with 1 or more EAs (29 patients with 42 flow-related proximal aneurysms, 39 patients with 48 flow-related distal aneurysms, and 10 patients with 20 unrelated aneurysms). Multivariate regression analysis revealed that ICH patients were more likely than non-ICH patients to have a coexisting EA (35 versus 13%; odds ratio = 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-7.5; P < 0.001), but this effect was not present when only BAVM-related ICH was considered (odds ratio = 0.3; 95% confidence interval, 0.1-1.0; P = 0.052). Other independent predictors of ICH included small AVM size (<3 cm), exclusively deep venous drainage, and the presence of an intranidal aneurysm. CONCLUSION: Clinical presentation with ICH was associated with EA aneurysms, but the association was due to aneurysmal rather than BAVM rupture, suggesting that EAs and the BAVM ICH risks may be considered as separate entities in future studies.