Prognostication in severe acute respiratory syndrome: a retrospective time-course analysis of 1312 laboratory-confirmed patients in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The temporal importance of prognostic indicators for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has not been studied. This study identified the various clinical prognostic factors for SARS and described the temporal evolution of these factors in the course of the SARS illness in Hong Kong in 2003. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the entire Hong Kong cohort of 1312 laboratory-confirmed SARS patients aged 15-74 years was undertaken. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data at presentation and investigative data during the first 10 days of illness from the time of symptom onset were compiled. Two adverse outcomes were examined: hospital mortality and the development of oxygenation failure based on the estimated PaO(2)/FiO(2) ratio of <200 mm Hg. Logistic regression was used to identify the association between these prognostic factors and outcomes. RESULTS: Based on adjusted odds ratios with a P-value of <0.05, older age, male gender, elevated pulse rate and elevated neutrophil count were all predictive of oxygenation failure and death during the 10-day illness. Raised serum albumin and creatinine phosphokinase (CPK) levels were predictive of hospital mortality during this period. The presenting ALT and CPK level and the day 7 and day 10 platelet counts were predictive of oxygenation failure while the day 7 LDH was predictive of death. Contact exposure outside health-care institutions also appeared to carry higher risk of death. CONCLUSION: This large-scale analysis identified important discriminatory parameters related to the patients' demographic profile (age and gender), severity of illness (pulse rate and neutrophil count), and multisystem derangement (platelet count, CPK, ALT and LDH), all of which prognosticated adverse outcomes during the SARS episode. While age, pulse rate and neutrophil count consistently remained significant prognosticators during the first 10 days of illness, the prognostic impact of other derangements was more time-course dependent. Clinicians should be aware of the time-course evolution of these prognosticators.     

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently recognized and highly contagious pneumonic illness, caused by a novel coronavirus. While developments in diagnostic, clinical and other aspects of SARS research are well underway, there is still great difficulty for frontline clinicians as validated rapid diagnostic tests or effective treatment regimens are lacking. This article attempts to summarize some of the recent developments in this newly recognized condition from the Asia Pacific perspective.     

Psychosocial factors influencing the practice of preventive behaviors against the severe acute respiratory syndrome among older Chinese in Hong Kong

OBJECTIVE: This study explored psychosocial factors that influenced the practice of preventive behaviors against the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) among older adults. METHOD: A total of 354 older Chinese were telephone interviewed during the outbreak of SARS in Hong Kong. They were asked about their perceived health threats, efficacy beliefs, and the practice of SARS preventive behaviors. RESULTS: Only 40.7% of the elderly participants practiced the recommended SARS preventive behaviors. Elderly participants who perceived greater personal vulnerability to the disease, who possessed greater self-efficacy, who had greater confidence in local health authorities, and who had lower educational attainment were more likely to adopt the suggested SARS preventive behaviors. DISCUSSION: This study supported the conceptual framework that specified perceived health threats and efficacy beliefs as the two core dimensions of motivating factors in adopting SARS preventive behaviors.     

Genomic characterisation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus of Amoy Gardens outbreak in Hong Kong

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a global health concern. In Hong Kong, two major outbreaks, one hospital based and the other in the Amoy Gardens apartments, were identified. The frequency of diarrhoea, admission to intensive care, and mortality differed significantly between the two outbreaks. We did genomic sequencing for viral isolates from five Amoy Gardens patients. The virus sequence was identical in four of these five patients. The sequence data from one hospital case and the four identical community cases had only three nucleotide differences. Alterations in the SARS coronavirus genome are unlikely to have caused the distinctive clinical features of the Amoy Gardens patients, and these results highlight the importance of non-viral genomic factors in this outbreak.     

SARS患者的低钙血症

25例严重急性呼吸综合征 (SARS)患者入院时血清钙水平 (2 .13± 0 .0 8)mmol/L低于正常。SARS患者低钙血症发病率为 60 .0 %。重症SARS患者低钙血症发生率 (88.9% )明显高于普通SARS患者(4 3 .8% ,P <0 .0 5 )。     

急性呼吸窘迫综合征患者28 d生存的影响因素及预后预测因子分析

目的探讨急性呼吸窘迫综合征(ARDS)患者28 d生存的影响因素及预后预测因子。方法回顾性分析2017年4月至2020年4月成都三六三医院重症监护病房收治的100例ARDS患者的临床资料,依据患者28 d生存情况分为预后良好(存活,n=45)、预后不良组(死亡,n=55)。收集2组患者基础资料信息;对比2组基础资料信息差异;将有差异信息纳入logistic模型,行量化赋值,以预后为因变量(Y,不良=1),以年龄、是否合并下呼吸道感染、是否使用免疫抑制药物、发病至受治时间、有创机械通气时间、急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分Ⅱ(APACHEⅡ)、氧合指数(OI)、每搏输出量变异度(SVV)为自变量(X),明确ARDS患者预后不良的危险因素;最后通过一致性分析探讨各项危险因素预测ARDS患者预后的准确率。结果预后不良组年龄≥65岁、合并下呼吸道感染、使用免疫抑制药物、SVV<15%患者占比显著高于预后良好组,发病至受治时间显著长于预后良好组,有创机械通气时间显著短于预后良好组,APACHEⅡ评分显著高于预后良好组,OI显著低于预后良好组,差异均有统计学意义(P值均<0.05)。经多因素logistic分析证实,年龄≥65岁、下呼吸道感染、使用免疫抑制药物、发病至受治时间>7 d、有创机械通气时间<100 h、APACHEⅡ评分≥20分、OI<130 mmHg(1 mmHg=0.133 kPa)、SVV<15%为ARDS患者预后不良的危险因素(P值均<0.05)。经一致性分析,年龄、下呼吸道感染、使用免疫抑制药物、发病至受治时间、有创机械通气时间、APACHEⅡ评分、OI、SVV均可用于ARDS患者预后的预测(Kappa=0.543、0.544、0.607、0.548、0.545、0.606、0.661、0.573)。结论重症监护病房ARDS患者28 d死亡的影响因素较多,如年龄、是否合并下呼吸道感染、是否使用免疫抑制药物、发病至受治时间、有创机械通气时间、APACHEⅡ评分、OI、SVV,临床医师应当予以关注。     

老年重症肺炎合并急性呼吸衰竭预后影响因素分析

目的探讨老年重症肺炎合并急性呼吸衰竭患者短期预后的相关因素。方法对78例因各种因素导致合并急性呼吸衰竭老年重症肺炎患者资料进行回顾性分析。结果急性生理评分（APS）、急性生理与慢性健康估测评分（APACHE）Ⅱ评分较高、循环衰竭、心力衰竭、肝功能衰竭、低蛋白血症、酸碱失衡及电解质紊乱、胃肠损害（消化道出血）与短期内死亡率升高相关。恶性病及出现APACHEⅡ相关的疾病为独立的预后不良的预测因素。结论循环衰竭、心力衰竭、肝功能衰竭、低蛋白血症提示预后不良,酸碱失衡及电解质紊乱、呼吸衰竭（血气分析）6小时内的相应的指标,合并症的出现、基础疾病的严重性是合并急性呼吸衰竭致尘肺患者的预测指标。     

SARS患者甲状腺功能检测分析

测定 8例严重急性呼吸综合征 (SARS)患者血浆甲状腺激素水平。结果显示这些患者的血浆TT3 、FT3 下降 ,rT3 升高 ,符合低T3 综合征诊断。     

Spontaneous pneumomediastinum in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Spontaneous pneumomediastinum (SP) unrelated to assisted ventilation is a newly recognised complication of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The objective of the present study was to examine the incidence, risk factors and the outcomes of SP in a cohort of SARS victims from a community outbreak. Data were retrieved from a prospectively collected database of virologically confirmed SARS patients. One hundred and twelve cases were analysable, with 13 patients developing SP (11.6%) at a mean +/- SD of 19.6 +/- 4.6 days from symptom onset. Peak lactate dehydrogenase level was associated with the development of SP. SP was associated with increased intubation and a trend towards death. Drainage was required in five cases. For patients who survived, the SP and/or the associated pneumothoraces took a median of 28 days (interquartile range: 15-45 days) to resolve completely. In conclusion, spontaneous pneumomediastinum appeared to be a frequent complication of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Further research is needed to investigate its pathogenesis.     

传染性非典型肺炎的影像表现

目的 探讨传染性非典型肺炎(世界卫生组织又称其为严重呼吸综合征，SARS)的X线表现及变化规律。方法 回顾性分析临床诊断的61例SARS患，对发病后的一系列胸片和CT影像进行统计分析。结果 患均以发热为最早起病症状，88％患在起病1周内肺部出现局灶性斑片状模糊影，并迅速扩大。2周内病变达高峰，有57％患两肺大部分肺野受累，病情重。84％患在5周内肺部阴影逐渐消散。在16例恢复期患的CT扫描中，有13例显示肺部遗留纤维化病灶。有6例患合并感染，病期延长，4例死亡。结论 SARS早期出现肺部炎性改变，发展迅速，大部分两肺受累，重症比例高，易致肺纤维化。     

SARS康复者1年临床随访结果的研究

目的:了解该病对患者肺功能及生活质量的影响。方法:对30例有明确接触史的严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)患者在SARS疫情结束后6个月、1年时分别进行动脉血气、肺功能和健康问卷调查。结果:肺功能和动脉血气各指标前后结果比较均无统计学差异。6个月时,生理健康评分、心理健康评分、生活质量总评分低于参考值且有统计学差异。1年时,生理健康评分、生活质量总评分低于参考值并有统计学差异。结论:1年来,患者肺功能没有出现进行性恶化。SARS导致患者生活质量下降;早期影响生理健康和心理健康,后期主要影响生理健康。     

Reappraisal of the aetiology and prognostic factors of severe acute respiratory failure in HIV patients.

The introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy with protease inhibitors in 1996 has changed the morbidity and mortality of acquired immune deficiency syndrome patients. Therefore, the aetiologies and prognostic factors of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients with life-threatening respiratory failure requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission need to be reassessed. From 1993 to 1998, we prospectively evaluated 57 HIV patients (mean+/-SEM age 36.5+/-1.3 yrs) admitted to the ICU showing pulmonary infiltrates and acute respiratory failure. A total of 21 and 30 patients were diagnosed as having Pneumocystis carinii and bacterial pneumonia, respectively, of whom 13 and eight died during their ICU stay (p=0.01). Both groups of patients had similar age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, and severity in respiratory failure. The number of cases with bacterial pneumonia admitted to ICU decreased after 1996 (p=0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that (APACHE) II score >17, serum albumin level <25 g.(-1), and diagnosis of P. carinii pneumonia were the only factors at entry associated with ICU mortality (p=0.02). Patients with bacterial pneumonia are less frequently admitted to the intensive care unit after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy with protease inhibitors in 1996. Compared to the previous series, it was observed that the few Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia patients that need intensive care still have a bad prognosis.     

Clinical prognostic rules for severe acute respiratory syndrome in low- and high-resource settings

BACKGROUND: An accurate prognostic model for patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) could provide a practical clinical decision aid. We developed and validated prognostic rules for both high- and low-resource settings based on data available at the time of admission. METHODS: We analyzed data on all 1755 and 291 patients with SARS in Hong Kong (derivation cohort) and Toronto (validation cohort), respectively, using a multivariable logistic scoring method with internal and external validation. Scores were assigned on the basis of patient history in a basic model, and a full model additionally incorporated radiological and laboratory results. The main outcome measure was death. RESULTS: Predictors for mortality in the basic model included older age, male sex, and the presence of comorbid conditions. Additional predictors in the full model included haziness or infiltrates on chest radiography, less than 95% oxygen saturation on room air, high lactate dehydrogenase level, and high neutrophil and low platelet counts. The basic model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.860 in the derivation cohort, which was maintained on external validation with an area under the ROC curve of 0.882. The full model improved discrimination with areas under the ROC curve of 0.877 and 0.892 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSION: The model performs well and could be useful in assessing prognosis for patients who are infected with re-emergent SARS.