Comparison of model predictions of typhoid conjugate vaccine public health impact and cost-effectiveness

Models are useful to inform policy decisions on typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) deployment in endemic settings. However, methodological choices can influence model-predicted outcomes. To provide robust estimates for the potential public health impact of TCVs that account for structural model differences, we compared four dynamic and one static mathematical model of typhoid transmission and vaccine impact. All models were fitted to a common dataset of age-specific typhoid fever cases in Kolkata, India. We evaluated three TCV strategies: no vaccination, routine vaccination at 9 months of age, and routine vaccination at 9 months with a one-time catch-up campaign (ages 9 months to 15 years). The primary outcome was the predicted percent reduction in symptomatic typhoid cases over 10 years after vaccine introduction. For three models with economic analyses (Models A-C), we also compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), calculated as the incremental cost (US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. Routine vaccination was predicted to reduce symptomatic cases by 10–46 % over a 10-year time horizon under an optimistic scenario (95 % initial vaccine efficacy and 19-year mean duration of protection), and by 2–16 % under a pessimistic scenario (82 % initial efficacy and 6-year mean protection). Adding a catch-up campaign predicted a reduction in incidence of 36–90 % and 6–35 % in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Vaccine impact was predicted to decrease as the relative contribution of chronic carriers to transmission increased. Models A-C all predicted routine vaccination with or without a catch-up campaign to be cost-effective compared to no vaccination, with ICERs varying from $95–789 per DALY averted; two models predicted the ICER of routine vaccination alone to be greater than with the addition of catch-up campaign. Despite differences in model-predicted vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness, routine vaccination plus a catch-up campaign is likely to be impactful and cost-effective in high incidence settings such as Kolkata.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of typhoid conjugate vaccines in five endemic low- and middle-income settings

BackgroundTyphoid fever remains endemic in low- and middle-income countries. Programmatic use of existing vaccines is limited, but upcoming typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) could warrant wider use. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of five TCV delivery strategies in three urban areas (Delhi and Kolkata, India and Nairobi, Kenya) and two rural settings (Lwak, Kenya and Dong Thap, Vietnam) with varying incidence.Methods and findingsWe evaluated routine infant vaccination with and without catch-up campaigns among older individuals. We used a dynamic model of typhoid transmission to simulate cases, hospitalizations, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) lost, treatment and intervention costs. We estimated cost-effectiveness (in terms of cost in international dollars (I$) per DALY averted) from the healthcare payer perspective, and assessed how it was influenced by uncertain model parameters. Compared to no vaccination, routine infant vaccination at I$1/dose was cost-saving in Delhi and Dong Thap, “very cost-effective” in Kolkata and Nairobi, and “cost-effective” in Lwak according to World Health Organization thresholds. However, routine vaccination was not the optimal strategy compared to strategies that included a catch-up campaign, which yielded the highest probability of being cost-saving in Delhi and Dong Thap and were most likely to provide a return on investment above a willingness-to-pay threshold of I$1440 in Kolkata, I$2300 in Nairobi, and I$5360 in Lwak. Vaccine price impacted the optimal strategy, and the number of doses required and rate of hospitalization were the primary sources of uncertainty.ConclusionRoutine vaccination with TCV would be cost-effective in most settings, and additional one-time catch-up campaigns would also be economically justified.     

The cost-effectiveness of typhoid Vi vaccination programs: calculations for four urban sites in four Asian countries

The burden of typhoid fever remains high in impoverished settings, and increasing antibiotic resistance is making treatment costly. One strategy for reducing the typhoid morbidity and mortality is vaccination with the Vi polysaccharide vaccine. We use a wealth of new economic and epidemiological data to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Vi vaccination against typhoid in sites in four Asian cities: Kolkata (India), Karachi (Pakistan), North Jakarta (Indonesia), and Hue (Vietnam). We report results from both a societal as well as a public sector financial perspective. Baseline disease burden estimates in the four areas are: 750 cases per year in two Kolkata neighborhoods (pop 185,000); 84 cases per year in the city of Hue (pop 280,000); 298 cases per year in two sub-districts in North Jakarta (pop 161,000), and 538 cases per year in three squatter settlements in Karachi (pop 102,000). We estimate that a vaccination program targeting all children (2-14.9) would prevent 456, 158, and 258 typhoid cases (and 4.6, 1.6, and 2.6 deaths), and avert 126, 44, and 72 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over 3 years in Kolkata, North Jakarta and Karachi, respectively. The net social costs would be US$160 and US$549, per DALY averted in Kolkata and North Jakarta, respectively. These programs, along with a similar program in Karachi, would be considered "very cost-effective" (e.g. costs per DALY averted less than per capita gross national income (GNI)) under a wide range of assumptions. Community-based vaccination programs that also target adults in Kolkata and Jakarta are less cost-effective because incidence is lower in adults than children, but are also likely to be "very cost-effective". A program targeting school-aged children in Hue, Vietnam would prevent 21 cases, avert 6 DALYs, and not be cost-effective (US$3779 per DALY averted) because of the low typhoid incidence there.     

Cost effectiveness of typhoid vaccination in India

IntroductionWorld Health Organization has prequalified the use of typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) in children over six months of age in typhoid endemic countries. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of introducing TCV separately for urban and rural areas of India.MethodsA decision analytic model was developed, using a societal perspective, to compare long-term costs and outcomes (3% discount rate) in a new-born cohort of 100,000 children immunized with or without TCV. Three vaccination scenarios were modelled, assuming the protective efficacy of TCV to last for 5, 10 and 15 years following immunization. Incidence of typhoid infection estimated under ‘National Surveillance System for Enteric Fever’ (NSSEFI)’ was used. The prices of vaccine and cost of service delivery were included for vaccination arm. Both health system cost and out-of-pocket expenditures for treatment of typhoid illness and its complications was included.ResultsTCV introduction in urban areas would result in prevention of 17% to 36% typhoid cases and deaths. With exclusion of indirect costs, the incremental cost per QALY gained was ₹ 151,346 (54,730–307,975), ₹ 61,710 (−5250 to 163,283) and ₹ 45,188 (−17,069 to 141,093) for scenario 1, 2 and 3 respectively. While, with inclusion of indirect costs, all 3 scenarios were cost saving. Further, in rural areas, TCV is estimated to reduce the typhoid cases and deaths by 19% to 36%, with ICER (incremental cost per QALY gained) ranging from ₹ 2340 (1316–4370) to ₹ 3574 (2057 – 6691) thousand (inclusive of indirect costs) among the 3 vaccination scenarios.ConclusionFrom a societal perspective, introduction of TCV is a cost saving strategy in urban India. Further, due to low incidence of typhoid infection, introduction of TCV is not cost-effective in rural settings of India.     

Potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Afghanistan

IntroductionHuman papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has not been introduced in many countries in South-Central Asia, including Afghanistan, despite the sub-region having the highest incidence rate of cervical cancer in Asia. This study estimates the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Afghanistan to inform national decision-making.MethodAn Excel-based static cohort model was used to estimate the lifetime costs and health outcomes of vaccinating a single cohort of 9-year-old girls in the year 2018 with the bivalent HPV vaccine, compared to no vaccination. We also explored a scenario with a catch-up campaign for girls aged 10–14 years. Input parameters were based on local sources, published literature, or assumptions when no data was available. The primary outcome measure was the discounted cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, evaluated from both government and societal perspectives.ResultsVaccinating a single cohort of 9-year-old girls against HPV in Afghanistan could avert 1718 cervical cancer cases, 125 hospitalizations, and 1612 deaths over the lifetime of the cohort. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$426 per DALY averted from the government perspective and US$400 per DALY averted from the societal perspective. The estimated annual cost of the HPV vaccination program (US$3,343,311) represents approximately 3.53% of the country′s total immunization budget for 2018 or 0.13% of total health expenditures.ConclusionIn Afghanistan, HPV vaccine introduction targeting a single cohort is potentially cost-effective (0.7 times the GDP per capita of $586) from both the government and societal perspective with additional health benefits generated by a catch-up campaign, depending on the government′s willingness to pay for the projected health outcomes.     

Human health benefits from livestock vaccination for brucellosis: case study

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the economic benefit, cost-effectiveness, and distribution of benefit of improving human health in Mongolia through the control of brucellosis by mass vaccination of livestock. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness and economic benefit for human society and the agricultural sector of mass vaccination against brucellosis was modelled. The intervention consisted of a planned 10-year livestock mass vaccination campaign using Rev-1 livestock vaccine for small ruminants and S19 livestock vaccine for cattle. Cost-effectiveness, expressed as cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, was the primary outcome. FINDINGS: In a scenario of 52% reduction of brucellosis transmission between animals achieved by mass vaccination, a total of 49,027 DALYs could be averted. Estimated intervention costs were US$ 8.3 million, and the overall benefit was US$ 26.6 million. This results in a net present value of US$ 18.3 million and an average benefit-cost ratio for society of 3.2 (2.27-4.37). If the costs of the intervention were shared between the sectors in proportion to the benefit to each, the public health sector would contribute 11%, which gives a cost-effectiveness of US$ 19.1 per DALY averted (95% confidence interval 5.3-486.8). If private economic gain because of improved human health was included, the health sector should contribute 42% to the intervention costs and the cost-effectiveness would decrease to US$ 71.4 per DALY averted. CONCLUSION: If the costs of vaccination of livestock against brucellosis were allocated to all sectors in proportion to the benefits, the intervention might be profitable and cost effective for the agricultural and health sectors.     

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Mozambique

IntroductionRotavirus is one of the most common cause of severe gastroenteritis in children, with the largest mortality burden in low- and middle-income countries. To prevent rotavirus gastroenteritis, Mozambique introduced ROTARIX® vaccine in 2015, however, its cost-effectiveness has never been established in the country. In 2018, additional vaccines became available globally. This study estimates the cost-effectiveness of the recently introduced ROTARIX in Mozambique and compares the cost-effectiveness of ROTARIX®, ROTAVAC®, and ROTASIIL® to inform future use.MethodsWe used a decision-support model to calculate the potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination with ROTARIX compared to no vaccination over a five-year period (2016–2020) and to compare the cost-effectiveness of ROTARIX, ROTAVAC, and ROTASIIL to no vaccination and to each other over a ten-year period (2021–2030). The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted from a government perspective. We assessed uncertainty through sensitivity analyses.ResultsFrom 2016 to 2020, we estimate the vaccine program with ROTARIX cost US$12.3 million, prevented 4,628 deaths, and averted US$3.1 million in healthcare costs. The cost per DALY averted was US$70. From 2021 to 2030, we estimate all three vaccines could prevent 9,000 deaths and avert US$7.8 million in healthcare costs. With Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (Gavi) support, ROTARIX would have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$31 million) and 98 % probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 0.5x GDP per capita. Without Gavi support, ROTASIIL would have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$75.8 million) and 30 % probability of being cost-effective at the same threshold.ConclusionROTARIX vaccination had a substantial public health impact in Mozambique between 2016 and 2020. ROTARIX is currently estimated to be the most cost-effective product, but the choice of vaccine should be re-evaluated as more evidence emerges on the price, incremental delivery cost, wastage, and impact associated with each of the different rotavirus vaccines.     

Impact,cost-effectiveness,and budget implications of HPV vaccination in Kenya: A modelling study

BackgroundSub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of cervical cancer cases and deaths worldwide. Kenya introduced a quadrivalent HPV vaccine (GARDASIL, hereafter referred to as GARDASIL-4) for ten-year-old girls in late 2019 with donor support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. As Kenya may soon graduate from Gavi support, it is important to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness and budget impact of the current HPV vaccine, and potential alternatives.MethodsWe used a proportionate outcomes static cohort model to evaluate the annual budget impact and lifetime cost-effectiveness of vaccinating ten-year-old girls over the period 2020–2029. We included a catch-up campaign for girls aged 11–14 years in 2020. We estimated cervical cancer cases, deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthcare costs (government and societal perspective) expected to occur with and without vaccination over the lifetimes of each cohort of vaccinated girls. For each of the four products available globally (CECOLIN©, CERVARIX©, GARDASIL-4©, and GARDASIL-9 ©), we estimated the cost (2021 US$) per DALY averted compared to no vaccine and to each other. Model inputs were obtained from published sources, as well as local stakeholders.ResultsWe estimated 320,000 cases and 225,000 deaths attributed to cervical cancer over the lifetimes of the 14 evaluated birth cohorts. HPV vaccination could reduce this burden by 42–60 %. Without cross-protection, CECOLIN had the lowest net cost and most attractive cost-effectiveness. With cross-protection, CERVARIX was the most cost-effective. Under either scenario the most cost-effective vaccine had a 100 % probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$ 100 (5 % of Kenya’s national gross domestic product per capita) compared to no vaccination. Should Kenya reach its target of 90 % coverage and graduate from Gavi support, the undiscounted annual vaccine program cost could exceed US$ 10 million per year. For all three vaccines currently supported by Gavi, a single-dose strategy would be cost-saving compared to no vaccination.ConclusionHPV vaccination for girls is highly cost-effective in Kenya. Compared to GARDASIL-4, alternative products could provide similar or greater health benefits at lower net costs. Substantial government funding will be required to reach and sustain coverage targets as Kenya graduates from Gavi support. A single dose strategy is likely to have similar benefits for less cost.     

Cost-utility analysis of dengue vaccination in a country with heterogeneous risk of dengue transmission

BackgroundDengue is one of the most important vector-borne diseases worldwide, and annually, nearly 390 million people are infected and 500,000 patients are hospitalized for severe dengue. Argentina has great variability in the risk of dengue transmission due to eco-climatic reasons. Currently no vaccines are available for dengue even though several vaccines are under development.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a dengue vaccine in a country with heterogeneous risk of dengue transmission like Argentina.MethodsThe analysis was carried out from a societal perspective using a Markov model that included both vaccine and disease parameters. Utility was measured as disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the vaccination was expressed in 2014 American dollars (US$) per DALY averted. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate uncertainty in model outcomes, and a threshold analysis was conducted to estimate the highest possible price of the vaccine.ResultsThe ICER of the vaccination program was found to be US$ 5714 per DALY averted. This value is lower than 3 times the per capita GDP of Argentina (US$ 38,619 in 2014); 54.9% of the simulations were below this value. If a vaccination program would be implemented the maximum vaccine price per dose has to be US$1.49 for a vaccination at national level or US$28.72 for a targeted vaccination in high transmission areas.ConclusionsThese results demonstrate that vaccination against dengue would be cost-effective in Argentina, especially if carried out in predetermined regions at high risk of dengue transmission. However, these results should be interpreted with caution because the probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that there was considerable uncertainty around the ICER value. The influence of variations in vaccine efficacy, cost and other important parameters are discussed in the text.     

Cost-effectiveness of the introduction of two-dose bi-valent (Cervarix) and quadrivalent (Gardasil) HPV vaccination for adolescent girls in Bangladesh

BackgroundCervical cancer is one of the most prevalent cancers in women caused by the human papillomavirus (HPV) that leads to a substantial disease burden for health systems. Prevention through vaccination can significantly reduce the prevalence of cervical cancer. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential health and economic impacts of introducing two-dose bivalent (Cervarix) and quadrivalent (Gardasil) HPV vaccines in Bangladesh.MethodsThe study uses the Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) model to assess the cost-effectiveness of introducing HPV vaccination. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted using the cost-effectiveness threshold (CET). The analyses were done from a health system perspective in terms of vaccine delivery routes.ResultsIntroduction of bi-valent HPV vaccination was found highly cost-effective (ICER = US$488/DALY) at Gavi (The Vaccine Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations) negotiated prices. The value of ICERs were US$710, US$356 and US$397 per DALY averted for school-based, health facility-based, and outreach-based programs, respectively, which is consistent with the CET range (US$67 to US$854). However, bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines at listed prices were not found cost-effective, with ICERs of US$1405 and US$3250 per DALY averted, respectively, that exceeds the CETs values.ConclusionsIntroducing a two-dose bi-valent HPV vaccination program is cost-effective in Bangladesh at Gavi negotiated prices. Vaccine price is the dominating parameter for the cost-effectiveness of bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines. Both vaccines are not cost-effective at listed prices in Bangladesh. The evaluation highlights that introducing the two-dose bivalent HPV vaccine at Gavi negotiated prices into a national immunization program in Bangladesh is economically viable to reduce the burden of cervical cancer.     

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Ghana: Examining impacts from 2012 to 2031

BackgroundDiarrhea causes about 10% of all deaths in children under five years globally, with rotavirus causing about 40% of all diarrhea deaths. Ghana introduced rotavirus vaccination as part of routine immunization in 2012 and it has been shown to be effective in reducing disease burden in children under five years. Ghana’s transition from low to lower-middle income status in 2010 implies fewer resources from Gavi as well as other major global financing mechanisms. Ghana will soon bear the full cost of vaccines. The aim of this study was to estimate the health impact, costs and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Ghana from introduction and beyond the Gavi transition.MethodsThe TRIVAC model is used to estimate costs and effects of rotavirus vaccination from 2012 through 2031. Model inputs include demographics, disease burden, health system structure, health care utilization and costs as well as vaccine cost, coverage, and efficacy. Model inputs came from local data, the international literature and expert consultation. Costs were examined from the health system and societal perspectives.ResultsThe results show that continued rotavirus vaccination could avert more than 2.2 million cases and 8900 deaths while saving US$6 to US$9 million in costs over a 20-year period. The net cost of vaccination program is approximately US$60 million over the same period. The societal cost per DALY averted is US$238 to US$332 with cost per case averted ranging from US$27 to US$38. The cost per death averted is approximately US$7000.ConclusionThe analysis shows that continued rotavirus vaccination will be highly cost-effective, even for the period during which Ghana will assume responsibility for purchasing vaccines after transition from Gavi support.     

A cost-effectiveness analysis of antenatal influenza vaccination among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected pregnant women in South Africa

BackgroundPregnant women and infants are at increased risk of severe disease from influenza. Antenatal influenza vaccination is safe and can reduce the risk of illness for women and their infants. We evaluated for South Africa the health effects of antenatal influenza vaccination among pregnant women and their infants aged <6 months old and assessed its cost-effectiveness.MethodsWe constructed a decision tree model to simulate the population of pregnant women and infants aged <6 months in South Africa using TreeAge Pro Suite 2015. The model evaluated the change in societal costs and outcomes associated with a vaccination campaign that prioritized HIV-infected over HIV-uninfected pregnant women compared with no vaccination. We also examined the impacts of a campaign without prioritization. Upper and lower 90% uncertainty intervals (90% UI) were generated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis on 10000 Monte Carlo simulations. The cost-effectiveness threshold was set to the 2015 per capita gross domestic product of South Africa, US$5724.ResultsAntenatal vaccination with prioritization averted 9070 (90% UI: 7407–11217) total cases of influenza among pregnant women and infants, including 411 (90% UI: 305–546) hospitalizations and 30 (90% UI: 22–40) deaths. This corresponds to an averted fraction of 13.5% (90% UI: 9.0–20.5%). Vaccinating without prioritization averted 7801 (90% UI: 6465–9527) cases of influenza, including 335 (90% UI: 254–440) hospitalizations and 24 (90% UI: 18–31) deaths. This corresponds to an averted fraction of 11.6% (90% UI: 7.8–17.4%). Vaccinating the cohort of pregnant women with prioritization had societal cost of $4689 (90% UI: $3128–$7294) per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained while vaccinating without prioritization had a cost of $5924 (90% UI: $3992–$9056) per QALY.ConclusionsAntenatal influenza vaccination campaigns in South Africa would reduce the impact of influenza and could be cost-effective.     

Japanese encephalitis vaccination in the Philippines: A cost-effectiveness analysis comparing alternative delivery strategies

IntroductionJapanese encephalitis (JE) is a mosquito-borne viral infection of the brain that can cause permanent brain damage and death. In the Philippines, efforts are underway to deliver a live attenuated JE vaccine (CD-JEV) to children under five years of age (YOA), who are disproportionately infected. Multiple vaccination strategies are being considered.MethodsWe conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing three vaccination strategies to the current state of no vaccination from the societal and government perspectives: (1) national routine vaccination only, (2) sub-national campaign followed by national routine, and (3) national campaign followed by national routine. We developed a Markov model to estimate impact of vaccination or no vaccination over the child’s lifetime horizon, assuming an annual incidence of 10.6 cases per 100,000.Costs of illness ($859/case), vaccine ($0.50/dose), routine vaccination ($0.95/dose), and campaign vaccination ($0.98/dose) were based on hospital financial records, expert opinion and literature. The societal perspective included transportation and opportunity costs of caregiver time, in addition to costs incurred by the health system.ResultsJE vaccination via national campaign followed by national routine delivery was the most cost-effective strategy modeled with a cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted of $233 and $29 from the government and societal perspectives, respectively. Results were similar for other delivery strategies with cost/DALY ranging from $233 to $265 from the government perspective and $29–$57 from the societal perspective. JE vaccination was projected to prevent 27,856–37,277 cases, 5571–7455 deaths, and 173,233–230,704 DALYs among children under five over 20 consecutive birth cohorts. Total incremental costs of vaccination versus no vaccination over 20 birth cohorts were $6.6–$9.8 million from the societal perspective ($230 K–$440 K annually) and $45.9–$53.9 million ($2.2 M–$2.7 M annually) from the governmental perspective.ConclusionVaccination with CD-JEV in the Philippines is projected to be cost-effective, reducing long-term costs associated with JE illness and improving health outcomes compared to no vaccination.     

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of maternal acellular pertussis immunization (aP) in different socioeconomic settings: A dynamic transmission model of pertussis in three Brazilian states

ObjectivesUsing dynamic transmission models we evaluated the health and cost outcomes of adding acellular pertussis (aP) vaccination of pregnant women to infant vaccination in three Brazilian states that represent different socioeconomic conditions. The primary objective was to determine whether the same model structure could be used to represent pertussis disease dynamics in differing socioeconomic conditions.MethodsWe tested three model structures (SIR, SIRS, SIRSIs) to represent population-level transmission in three socio-demographically distinct Brazilian states: São Paulo, Paraná and Bahia. Two strategies were evaluated: infant wP vaccination alone versus maternal aP immunization plus infant wP vaccination. Model projections for 2014–2029 include outpatient and inpatient pertussis cases, pertussis deaths, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost, and costs (in 2014 USD) of maternal aP vaccination, infant vaccination, and pertussis medical treatment. Incremental cost per DALY averted is presented from the perspective of the Brazilian National Health System.ResultsBased on goodness-of-fit statistics, the SIRSIs model fit best, although it had only a modest improvement in statistical quantitative assessments relative to the SIRS model. For all three Brazilian states, maternal aP immunization led to higher costs but also saved infant lives and averted DALYs. The 2014 USD cost/DALY averted was $3068 in Sao Paulo, $2962 in Parana, and $2022 in Bahia. These results were robust in sensitivity analyses with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios exceeding per capita gross regional product only when the probability that a pertussis case is reported was assumed higher than base case implying more overt cases and deaths and therefore more medical costs.ConclusionsThe same model structure fit all three states best, supporting the idea that the disease behaves similarly across different socioeconomic conditions. We also found that immunization of pregnant women with aP is cost-effective in diverse Brazilian states.     

Cost-effectiveness of community-based management of acute malnutrition in Malawi

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of community-based management of acute malnutrition (CMAM) to prevent deaths due to severe acute malnutrition among children under-five. The analysis used a decision tree model to compare the costs and effects of two options to treat severe acute malnutrition: existing health services with CMAM vs existing health services without CMAM. The model used outcome and cost data from a CMAM programme in Dowa district, Malawi and a set of key assumptions regarding treatment-seeking behaviour and mortality outcomes. Under our 'base case' scenario, we found that CMAM cost US$42 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted (2007 US$) and US$493 per DALY averted under an assumed 'worst case' scenario for each variable. The results suggest that CMAM was highly cost-effective in the 'base case' as defined by the World Health Organization, as the cost per DALY falls well below Malawi's 2007 gross national income (GNI) per capita of US$250, and is within the range of DALYs reported for other child health interventions. Under a hypothetical 'worst case' for all variables, the model indicates CMAM is still cost-effective. The results indicate the decision to scale-up CMAM within essential health services in Dowa was a cost-effective one and that scaling up CMAM in similar contexts is also likely to be cost-effective. However, several contextual and programmatic factors should be considered when generalizing to diverse contexts.     

Economic evaluation and budget impact analysis of dengue vaccination following pre-vaccination serological screening in India

ObjectivesTo evaluate the budget impact and cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination following pre-vaccination serological screening in India.MethodsWe used a static cohort model (combination of decision tree and Markov model) to compare dengue disease and cost burden with and without dengue vaccination program with serological screening for a hypothetical cohort of 10-year-old adolescents. Budget impact was expressed in terms of total budget required for implementation of vaccination programme. Program impact was expressed in terms of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. Cost effectiveness was expressed as costs per DALY averted. All costs are expressed in 2018 US dollars. Sensitivity analysis was performed for ICERs in different vaccination scenarios.ResultsThe total budget for implementation of dengue vaccination programme is approximately around US$ 530 million (INR 3620 crores). Our model results suggest dengue vaccination result in a net gain of almost 86,000 DALYS. We found the Dengue vaccine to be a cost-effective intervention with an ICER of $3364 (INR 2,30,098) which is less than three-times GDP per capita of India ($6047; INR 413,601). One-way sensitivity analysis shows that the ICER is most affected by the overall incidence of dengue infections followed by vaccine price. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that ICER for dengue vaccination varied from $1182 (INR 80,837) to $6367 (INR 435,439).ConclusionOur study shows that dengue vaccine with pre-vaccination serological screening programme is a cost-effective intervention with the conservative estimates.     

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Afghanistan

IntroductionDespite progress made in child survival in the past 20 years, 5.9 million children under five years died in 2015, with 9% of these deaths due to diarrhea. Rotavirus is responsible for more than a third of diarrhea deaths. In 2013, rotavirus was estimated to cause 215,000 deaths among children under five years, including 89,000 in Asia. As of April 2017, 92 countries worldwide have introduced rotavirus vaccination in their national immunization program. Afghanistan has applied for Gavi support to introduce rotavirus vaccination nationally. This study estimates the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of a national rotavirus immunization program in Afghanistan.MethodsThis study examined the use of Rotarix® (RV1) administered using a two-dose schedule at 6 and 10 weeks of age. We used the ProVac Initiative’s UNIVAC model (version 1.2.09) to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccine program compared with no vaccine over ten birth cohorts from 2017 to 2026 with a 3% annual discount rate. All monetary units are adjusted to 2017 US$.ResultsRotavirus vaccination in Afghanistan has the potential to avert more than one million cases; 660,000 outpatient visits; approximately 50,000 hospital admissions; 650,000 DALYs; and 12,000 deaths, over 10 years. Not accounting for any Gavi subsidy, rotavirus vaccination can avert DALYs at US$82/DALY from the government perspective and US$80/DALY from the societal perspective. With Gavi support, DALYs can be averted at US$29/DALY and US$31/DALY from the societal and government perspective, respectively. The average yearly cost of a rotavirus vaccination program would represent 2.8% of the total immunization budget expected in 2017 and 0.1% of total health expenditure.ConclusionThe introduction of rotavirus vaccination would be highly cost-effective in Afghanistan, and even more so with a Gavi subsidy.     

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in the Philippines: A modeling study

IntroductionRotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) remains a leading cause of hospitalization and death in children under five years of age in the Philippines. Rotavirus (RV) vaccination was introduced into the national immunization program (NIP) in 2012 but has since been limited to one region due to cost considerations and conflicting local cost-effectiveness estimates. Updated estimates of the cost-effectiveness of RV vaccination are required to inform prioritization of national immunization activities.MethodsWe calculated the potential costs and benefits of rotavirus vaccination over a 10-year-period (2021–2031) from a government and societal perspective, comparing four alternative rotavirus vaccines: Rotavac, Rotasiil, Rotarix and Rotateq. For each vaccine, a proportionate outcomes model was used to calculate the expected number of disease events, DALYs, vaccination program costs, and healthcare costs, with and without vaccination. The primary outcome measure was the cost per DALY averted. Assuming each product would generate similar benefits, the dominant (lowest cost) product was identified. We then calculated the cost-effectiveness (US$ per Disability Adjusted Life Year [DALY] averted) of the least costly product and compared it to willingness-to-pay thresholds of 0.5 and 1 times the national GDP per capita ($3,485), and ran deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ResultsIntroducing any of the four rotavirus vaccines would avert around 40% of RVGE visits, hospitalizations, and deaths over the period 2021–2031. Over the same ten-year period, the incremental cost of vaccination from a government perspective was estimated to be around $104, $105, $220, and $277 million for Rotavac, Rotasiil, Rotarix and Rotateq, respectively. The equivalent cost from a societal perspective was $58, $60, $178 and $231 million. The cost-effectiveness of the least costly product (Rotavac) was $1,148 ($830–$1682) from a government perspective and $646 ($233–1277) from a societal perspective. All other products offered similar benefits but at a higher cost. There is a >99% probability that Rotavac would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold set at 0.5 times the national GDP per capita.ConclusionBoth Rotavac and Rotasiil are likely to be cost-effective options in the Philippines, but it is not possible to say definitively which product should be preferred. Rotarix and Rotateq are expected to offer similar benefits at more cost, so would need to be priced far more competitively to be considered for introduction.     

Cost-effectiveness of routine and campaign vaccination strategies in Ecuador

A national household coverage survey of 3697 Ecuadorean children, carried out in July 1986, provided an opportunity for a cost-effectiveness analysis of (1) routine vaccination services based in fixed facilities and (2) mass immunization campaigns. A major purpose of the campaigns was to complement the routine services and to accelerate immunization activities. Based on the coverage survey, the Program for Reduction of Maternal and Childhood Illness (PREMI) and earlier campaigns increased the proportion of children under 5 years who were fully vaccinated from 43% to 64%. In one year, the PREMI campaign was responsible for fully vaccinating 11% of children under one year, 21% of 1-2-year-old children, and 13% of all children under 5 years. The campaign also helped ensure that vaccinations were completed when children were still very young and at greatest risk. The average cost per vaccination dose (in 1985 US$ prices) was approximately $0.29 for fixed facilities and $0.83 for the PREMI campaign. Total national costs were $675,000 and $1,665,000 for routine and campaign services respectively. The cost per fully vaccinated child (FVC) was $4.39 for routine vaccination services and $8.60 for the campaign. The cost per death averted was about $1900 for routine vaccination services, $4200 for the PREMI campaign, and $3200 for the combined programme. Because of Ecuador's lower mortality rates, the costs per death averted in Ecuador from both vaccination strategies are not as low as those from studies of vaccinations in Africa. The campaigns, though less cost-effective than routine services, significantly improved the vaccination coverage of younger children who had been missed by the routine services. The costs per FVC of both the campaign and the routine services compare favourably with such programmes in other countries.     

Economic analysis for evidence-based policy-making on a national immunization program: a case of rotavirus vaccine in Thailand

Severe diarrhea caused by rotavirus is a health problem worldwide, including Thailand. The World Health Organization has recommended incorporating rotavirus vaccination into national immunization programs. This policy has been implemented in several countries, but not in Thailand where the mortality rate is not high. This leads to the question of whether it would be cost-effective to implement such a policy. The Thai National Vaccine Committee, through the Immunization Practice Subcommittee, has conducted an economic analysis. Their study aimed to estimate the costs of rotavirus diarrhea and of a rotavirus vaccination program, and the cost-effectiveness of such a program including budget impact analysis. The study was designed as an economic evaluation, employing modeling technique in both provider and societal perspectives. A birth cohort of Thai children in 2009 was used in the analysis, with a 5-year time horizon. Costs were composed of cost of the illness and the vaccination program. Outcomes were measured in the form of lives saved and DALYs averted. Both costs and outcomes were discounted at 3%. The study found the discounted number of deaths to be 7.02 and 20.52 for vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts, respectively (13.5 deaths averted). Discounted DALYs were 263.33 and 826.57 for vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts, respectively (563.24 DALYs averted). Costs of rotavirus diarrhea in a societal perspective were US$6.6 million and US$21.0 million for vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts, respectively. At base case, the costs per additional death averted were US$5.1 million and US$5.7 for 2-dose and 3-dose vaccines, respectively, in a societal perspective. Costs per additional DALYs averted were US$128,063 and US$142,144, respectively. In a societal perspective, with a cost-effectiveness threshold at 1 GDP per capita per DALYs averted, vaccine prices per dose were US$4.98 and US$3.32 for 2-dose and 3-dose vaccines, respectively; in a provider perspective, they were US$2.90 and US$1.93. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were included. The budget required for vaccine purchase was calculated for all scenarios.