Scaling up antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected children in C?te d’Ivoire: determinants of survival and loss to programme

Objective

To investigate deaths and losses to follow-up in a programme designed to scale up antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected children in Côte d’Ivoire.

Methods

Between 2004 and 2007, HIV-exposed children at 19 centres were offered free HIV serum tests (polymerase chain reaction tests in those aged < 18 months) and ART. Computerized monitoring was used to determine: (i) the number of confirmed HIV infections, (ii) losses to the programme (i.e. death or loss to follow-up) before ART, (iii) mortality and loss-to-programme rates during 12 months of ART, and (iv) determinants of mortality and losses to the programme.

Findings

The analysis included 3876 ART-naïve children. Of the 1766 with HIV-1 infections (17% aged < 18 months), 124 (7.0%) died, 52 (2.9%) left the programme, 354 (20%) were lost to follow-up before ART, 259 (15%) remained in care without ART, and 977 (55%) started ART (median age: 63 months). The overall mortality rate during ART was significantly higher in the first 3 months than in months 4–12: 32.8 and 6.9 per 100 child-years of follow-up, respectively. Loss-to-programme rates were roughly double mortality rates and followed the same trend with duration of ART. Independent predictors of 12-month mortality on ART were pre-ART weight-for-age z-score < –2, percentage of CD4+ T lymphocytes < 10, World Health Organization HIV/AIDS clinical stage 3 or 4, and blood haemoglobin < 8 g/dl.

Conclusion

The large-scale programme to scale up paediatric ART in Côte d’Ivoire was effective. However, ART was often given too late, and early mortality and losses to programme before and just after ART initiation were major problems.     

Mortality and health among internally displaced persons in western Kenya following post-election violence, 2008: novel use of demographic surveillance

Objective

To evaluate mortality and morbidity among internally displaced persons (IDPs) who relocated in a demographic surveillance system (DSS) area in western Kenya following post-election violence.

Methods

In 2007, 204 000 individuals lived in the DSS area, where field workers visit households every 4 months to record migrations, births and deaths. We collected data on admissions among children < 5 years of age in the district hospital and developed special questionnaires to record information on IDPs. Mortality, migration and hospitalization rates among IDPs and regular DSS residents were compared, and verbal autopsies were performed for deaths.

Findings

Between December 2007 and May 2008, 16 428 IDPs migrated into the DSS, and over half of them stayed 6 months or longer. In 2008, IDPs aged 15–49 years died at higher rates than regular residents of the DSS (relative risk, RR: 1.34; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.004–1.80). A greater percentage of deaths from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection occurred among IDPs aged ≥ 5 years (53%) than among regular DSS residents (25–29%) (P < 0.001). Internally displaced children < 5 years of age did not die at higher rates than resident children but were hospitalized at higher rates (RR: 2.95; 95% CI: 2.44–3.58).

Conclusion

HIV-infected internally displaced adults in conflict-ridden parts of Africa are at increased risk of HIV-related death. Relief efforts should extend to IDPs who have relocated outside IDP camps, particularly if afflicted with HIV infection or other chronic conditions.     

Effect of cotrimoxazole on mortality in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

To determine whether cotrimoxazole reduces mortality in adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in low- and middle-income countries through a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Methods

PubMed and Embase were searched for randomized controlled trials and prospective and retrospective cohort studies that compared mortality or morbidity in HIV-infected individuals aged ≥ 13 years on cotrimoxazole and ART and on ART alone. The Newcastle–Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale was used to assess selection, confounding and measurement bias. Publication bias was assessed using Egger’s and Begg’s tests. Sensitivity analysis was performed because the I-squared statistic indicated substantial heterogeneity in study results. A random-effects model was used for meta-analysis.

Findings

Nine studies were included. Begg and Egger P-values for the seven that reported the effect of cotrimoxazole on mortality were 0.29 and 0.49, respectively, suggesting no publication bias. The I-squared statistic was 93.2%, indicating high heterogeneity in study results. The sensitivity analysis showed that neither the follow-up duration nor the percentage of individuals with World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 HIV disease at baseline explained the heterogeneity. The summary estimate of the effect of cotrimoxazole on the incidence rate of death was 0.42 (95% confidence interval: 0.29–0.61). Since most studies followed participants for less than 1 year, it was not possible to determine whether cotrimoxazole can be stopped safely after ART-induced immune reconstitution.

Conclusion

Cotrimoxazole significantly increased survival in HIV-infected adults on ART. Further research is needed to determine the optimum duration of cotrimoxazole treatment in these patients.     

Integrating antiretroviral therapy into antenatal care and maternal and child health settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

To determine whether integrating antiretroviral therapy (ART) into antenatal care (ANC) and maternal and child health (MCH) clinics could improve programmatic and patient outcomes.

Methods

The authors systematically searched PubMed, Embase, African Index Medicus and LiLACS for randomized controlled trials, prospective cohort studies, or retrospective cohort studies comparing outcomes in ANC or MCH clinics that had and had not integrated ART. The outcomes of interest were ART coverage, ART enrolment, ART retention, mortality and transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

Findings

Four studies met the inclusion criteria. All were conducted in ANC clinics. Increased enrolment of pregnant women in ART was observed in ANC clinics that had integrated ART (relative risk, RR: 2.09; 95% confidence interval, CI; 1.78–2.46; I²: 15%). Increased ART coverage was also noted in such clinics (RR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.05–1.79; I²: 83%). Sensitivity analyses revealed a trend for the national prevalence of HIV infection to explain the heterogeneity in the size of the effect of ART integration on ART coverage (P = 0.13). Retention in ART was similar in ANC clinics with and without ART integration.

Conclusion

Although few data were available, ART integration in ANC clinics appears to lead to higher rates of ART enrolment and ART coverage. Rates of retention in ART remain similar to those observed in referral-based models.     

HIV infection in older adults in sub-Saharan Africa: extrapolating prevalence from existing data

Objective

To quantify the number of cases and prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among older adults in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We reviewed data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Although in these surveys all female respondents are < 50 years of age, 18 of the surveys contained data on HIV infection among men aged ≥ 50 years. To estimate the percentage of older adults (i.e. people ≥ 50 years of age) who were positive for HIV (HIV+), we extrapolated from data from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS on the estimated number of people living with HIV and on HIV infection prevalence among adults aged 15–49 years.

Findings

In 2007, approximately 3 million people aged ≥ 50 years were living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of HIV infection in this group was 4.0%, compared with 5.0% among those aged 15–49 years. Of the approximately 21 million people in sub-Saharan Africa aged ≥ 15 years that were HIV+, 14.3% were ≥ 50 years old.

Conclusion

To better reflect the longer survival of people living with HIV and the ageing of the HIV+ population, indicators of the prevalence of HIV infection should be expanded to include people > 49 years of age. Little is known about comorbidity and sexual behaviour among HIV+ older adults or about the biological and cultural factors that increase the risk of transmission. HIV services need to be better targeted to respond to the growing needs of older adults living with HIV.     

Financial barriers to HIV treatment in Yaound��, Cameroon: first results of a national cross-sectional survey

Objective

To assess the extent to which user fees for antiretroviral therapy (ART) represent a financial barrier to access to ART among HIV-positive patients in Yaoundé, Cameroon.

Methods

Sociodemographic, economic and clinical data were collected from a random sample of 707 HIV-positive patients followed up in six public hospitals of the capital city (Yaoundé) and its surroundings through face-to-face interviews carried out by trained interviewers independently from medical staff and medical questionnaires filled out by prescribing physicians. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with self-reported financial difficulties in purchasing ART during the previous 3 months.

Findings

Of the 532 patients treated with ART at the time of the survey, 20% reported financial difficulty in purchasing their antiretroviral drugs during the previous 3 months. After adjustment for socioeconomic and clinical factors, reports of financial difficulties were significantly associated with lower adherence to ART (odds ratio, OR: 0.24; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.15–0.40; P < 0.0001) and with lower CD4+ lymphocyte (CD4) counts after 6 months of treatment (OR: 2.14; 95% CI: 1.15–3.96 for CD4 counts < 200 cells/µl; P = 0.04).

Conclusion

Removing a financial barrier to treatment with ART by eliminating user fees at the point of care delivery, as recommended by WHO, could lead to increased adherence to ART and to improved clinical results. New health financing mechanisms based on the public resources of national governments and international donors are needed to attain universal access to drugs and treatment for HIV infection.     

Timing of antiretroviral therapy in Cambodian hospital after diagnosis of tuberculosis: impact of revised WHO guidelines

Objective

To determine if implementation of 2010 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines on antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation reduced delay from tuberculosis diagnosis to initiation of ART in a Cambodian urban hospital.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in a nongovernmental hospital in Phnom Penh that followed new WHO guidelines in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis. All ART-naïve, HIV-positive patients initiated on antituberculosis treatment over the 18 months before and after guideline implementation were included. A competing risk regression model was used.

Findings

After implementation of the 2010 WHO guidelines, 190 HIV-positive patients with tuberculosis were identified: 53% males; median age, 38 years; median baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte (CD4+ cell) count, 43 cells/µL. Before implementation, 262 patients were identified; 56% males; median age, 36 years; median baseline CD4+ cell count, 59 cells/µL. With baseline CD4+ cell counts ≤ 50 cells/µL, median delay to ART declined from 5.8 weeks (interquartile range, IQR: 3.7–9.0) before to 3.0 weeks (IQR: 2.1–4.4) after implementation (P < 0.001); with baseline CD4+ cell counts > 50 cells/µL, delay dropped from 7.0 (IQR: 5.3–11.3) to 3.6 (IQR: 2.9–5.3) weeks (P < 0.001). The probability of ART initiation within 4 and 8 weeks after tuberculosis diagnosis rose from 23% and 65%, respectively, before implementation, to 62% and 90% after implementation. A non-significant increase in 6-month retention and antiretroviral substitution was seen after implementation.

Conclusion

Implementation of 2010 WHO recommendations in a routine clinical setting shortens delay to ART. Larger studies with longer follow-up are needed to assess impact on patient outcomes.     

Survey of children accessing HIV services in a high prevalence setting: time for adolescents to count?

Objective

To establish the proportion of adolescents among children infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Zimbabwe who receive HIV care and support, and what clinic staff perceives to be the main problems faced by HIV-infected children and adolescents.

Methods

In July 2008, we sent a questionnaire to all 131 facilities providing HIV care in Zimbabwe. In it we requested an age breakdown of the children (aged 0–19 years) registered for care and asked what were the two major problems faced by younger children (0–5 years) and adolescents (10–19 years).

Findings

Nationally, 115 (88%) facilities responded. In 98 (75%) that provided complete data, 196 032 patients were registered and 24 958 (13%) of them were children. Of children under HIV care, 33% were aged 0–4 years; 25%, 5–9 years; 25%, 10–14 years; and 17%, 15–19 years. Staff highlighted differences in the problems most commonly faced by younger children and adolescents. For younger children, such problems were malnutrition and lack of appropriate drugs (cited by 46% and 40% of clinics, respectively); for adolescents they concerned psychosocial issues and poor drug adherence (cited by 56% and 36%, respectively).

Conclusion

Interventions for the large cohort of adolescents who are receiving HIV care in Zimbabwe need to target the psychosocial concerns and poor drug adherence reported by staff as being the main concerns in this age group.     

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of combination antiretroviral therapy for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Uganda

Objective

To model the cost-effectiveness in Uganda of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prevent mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

Methods

The cost-effectiveness of ART was evaluated on the assumption that ART reduces the risk of an HIV-positive pregnant woman transmitting HIV to her baby from 40% (when the woman is left untreated) to 25.8%, 17.4% and 3.8%, respectively, when the woman is given: (i) single-dose nevirapine (at an estimated total drug cost of 0.06 United States dollars [US$]); (ii) dual therapy with zidovudine and lamivudine for 7 weeks (at a total drug cost of US$ 15.63); or (iii) ART for 18 months (at a total annual cost of US$ 469.77). Lifetime ART (US$ 6883), recommended for pregnant women with < 350 CD4+ T lymphocytes per mm³, was assumed to give the same reduction in transmission risk in each subsequent pregnancy.

Findings

Compared with single-dose nevirapine, dual therapy and no therapy, 18 months of ART averted 5.21, 3.22 and 8.58 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), respectively, at a cost of US$ 46, US$ 99 and US$ 34 per DALY averted. The corresponding figures for lifetime ART are, respectively, 19.20, 11.87 and 31.60 DALYs averted, at a cost of US$ 205, US$ 354 and US$ 172 per DALY averted.

Conclusion

In Uganda, ART appears highly cost-effective for the prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission, even if continued over the patients’ lifetimes. Given the additional public health benefits of ART, efforts to ensure that all HIV-positive pregnant women have access to lifelong ART should be intensified.     

Local-level mortality surveillance in resource-limited settings: a case study of Cape Town highlights disparities in health

Objective

To identify the leading causes of mortality and premature mortality in Cape Town, South Africa, and its subdistricts, and to compare levels of mortality between subdistricts.

Methods

Cape Town mortality data for the period 2001–2006 were analysed by age, cause of death and sex. Cause-of-death codes were aggregated into three main cause groups: (i) pre-transitional causes (e.g. communicable diseases, maternal causes, perinatal conditions and nutritional deficiencies), (ii) noncommunicable diseases and (iii) injuries. Premature mortality was calculated in years of life lost (YLLs). Population estimates for the Cape Town Metro district were used to calculate age-specific rates per 100 000 population, which were then age-standardized and compared across subdistricts.

Findings

The pattern of mortality in Cape Town reflects the quadruple burden of disease observed in the national cause-of-death profile, with HIV/AIDS, other infectious diseases, injuries and noncommunicable diseases all accounting for a significant proportion of deaths. HIV/AIDS has replaced homicide as the leading cause of death. HIV/AIDS, homicide, tuberculosis and road traffic injuries accounted for 44% of all premature mortality. Khayelitsha, the poorest subdistrict, had the highest levels of mortality for all main cause groups.

Conclusion

Local mortality surveillance highlights the differential needs of the population of Cape Town and provides a wealth of data to inform planning and implementation of targeted interventions. Multisectoral interventions will be required to reduce the burden of disease.     

Trends in all-cause mortality during the scale-up of an antiretroviral therapy programme: a cross-sectional study in Lusaka,Zambia

Objective

To follow the trends in all-cause mortality in Lusaka, Zambia, during the scale-up of a national programme of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods

Between November 2004 and September 2011, we conducted 12 survey rounds as part of a cross-sectional study in Lusaka, with independent sampling in each round. In each survey, we asked the heads of 3600 households to state the number of deaths in their households in the previous 12 months and the number of orphans aged less than 16 years in their households and investigated the heads’ knowledge, attitudes and practices related to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

Findings

The number of deaths we recorded – per 100 person–years – in each survey ranged from 0.92 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.78–1.09) in September 2011, to 1.94 (95% CI: 1.60–2.35) in March 2007. We found that mortality decreased only modestly each year (mortality rate ratio: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.95–1.00; P = 0.093). The proportion of households with orphans under the age of 16 years decreased from 17% in 2004 to 7% in 2011. The proportions of respondents who had ever been tested for HIV, had a comprehensive knowledge of HIV, knew where to obtain free ART and reported that a non-pregnant household member was receiving ART gradually increased.

Conclusion

The expansion of ART services in Lusaka was not associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality. Coverage, patient adherence and retention may all have to be increased if ART is to have a robust and lasting impact at population level in Lusaka.     

Measuring and correcting biased child mortality statistics in countries with generalized epidemics of HIV infection

Objective

Under Millennium Development Goal 4, countries are required to reduce child mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. In countries with generalized epidemics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, standard statistics based on fertility history may misrepresent progress towards this target owing to the correlation between deaths among mothers and early childhood deaths from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.

Methods

To empirically estimate this bias, child mortality data and fertility history, including births to deceased women, were collected through prospective household surveys in eastern Zimbabwe during 1998–2005. A mathematical model was then used to investigate the determinants and temporal dynamics of the bias, first in Zimbabwe and then in other countries with different background mortality rates and HIV-related epidemic profiles.

Findings

According to the empirical data, standard cross-sectional survey statistics underestimated true infant and under-5 mortality by 6.7% and 9.8%, respectively. These estimates were in agreement with the output from the model, in which the bias varied according to the magnitude and stage of the epidemic of HIV infection and background mortality rates. The bias was greater the longer the period elapsed before the survey and in later stages of the epidemic. Bias could substantially distort the measured effect of interventions to reduce non-HIV-related mortality and of programmes to prevent mother-to-child transmission, especially when trends are based on data from a single survey.

Conclusion

The correlation between the HIV-related deaths of mothers and their children can bias survey estimates of early child mortality. A mathematical model with a user-friendly interface is available to correct for this bias when measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 in countries with generalized epidemics of HIV infection.     

Excess child mortality after discharge from hospital in Kilifi, Kenya: a retrospective cohort analysis

Objective

To explore excess paediatric mortality after discharge from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and its duration and risk factors.

Methods

Hospital and demographic data were used to describe post-discharge mortality and survival probability in children aged < 15 years, by age group and clinical syndrome. Cox regression models were developed to identify risk factors.

Findings

In 2004–2008, approximately 111 000 children were followed for 555 000 person–years. We analysed 14 971 discharges and 535 deaths occurring within 365 days of discharge. Mortality was higher in the post-discharge cohort than in the community cohort (age-adjusted rate ratio, RR: 7.7; 95% confidence interval, CI: 6.6–8.9) and declined little over time. An increased post-discharge mortality hazard was found in children aged < 5 years with the following: weight-for-age Z score < −4 (hazard ratio, HR: 6.5); weight-for-age Z score > −4 but < −3 (HR: 3.4); hypoxia (HR: 2.3); bacteraemia (HR: 1.8); hepatomegaly (HR: 2.3); jaundice (HR: 1.8); hospital stay > 13 days (HR: 1.8). Older age was protective (reference < 1 month): 6–23 months, HR: 0.8; 2–4 years, HR: 0.6. Children with at least one risk factor accounted for 545 (33%) of the 1655 annual discharges and for 39 (47%) of the 83 discharge-associated deaths.

Conclusion

Hospital admission selects vulnerable children with a sustained increased risk of dying. The risk factors identified provide an empiric basis for effective outpatient follow-up.     

New indicators for delay in initiation of antiretroviral treatment: estimates for Cameroon

Objective

To propose two new indicators for monitoring access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); (i) the time from HIV seroconversion to ART initiation, and (ii) the time from ART eligibility to initiation, referred to as delay in ART initiation. To estimate values of these indicators in Cameroon.

Methods

We used linear regression to model the natural decline in CD4+ T-lymphocyte (CD4+ cell) numbers in HIV-infected individuals over time. The model was fitted using data from a cohort of 351 people in Côte d’Ivoire. We used the model to estimate the time from seroconversion to ART initiation and the delay in ART initiation in a representative sample of 4154 HIV-infected people who started ART in Cameroon between 2007 and 2010.

Findings

In Cameroon, the median CD4+ cell counts at ART initiation increased from 140 cells/μl (interquartile range, IQR: 66 to 210) in 2007–2009 to 163 cells/μl (IQR: 73 to 260) in 2010. The estimated average time from seroconversion to ART initiation decreased from 10.4 years (95% confidence interval, CI: 10.3 to 10.5) to 9.8 years (95% CI: 9.6 to 10.0). Delay in ART initiation increased from 3.4 years (95% CI: 3.1 to 3.7) to 5.8 years (95% CI: 5.6 to 6.2).

Conclusion

The estimated time to initiate ART and the delay in ART initiation indicate that progress in Cameroon is insufficient. These indicators should help monitor whether public health interventions to accelerate ART initiation are successful.     

Influenza-associated mortality in temperate and subtropical Chinese cities, 2003-2008

Objective

To estimate influenza-associated mortality in urban China.

Methods

Influenza-associated excess mortality for the period 2003–2008 was estimated in three cities in temperate northern China and five cities in the subtropical south of the country. The estimates were derived from models based on negative binomial regressions, vital statistics and the results of weekly influenza virus surveillance.

Findings

Annual influenza-associated excess mortality, for all causes, was 18.0 (range: 10.9–32.7) deaths per 100 000 population in the northern cities and 11.3 (range: 7.3–17.8) deaths per 100 000 in the southern cities. Excess mortality for respiratory and circulatory disease was 12.4 (range: 7.4–22.2) and 8.8 (range: 5.5–13.6) deaths per 100 000 people in the northern and southern cities, respectively. Most (86%) deaths occurred among people aged ≥ 65 years. Influenza-associated excess mortality was higher in B-virus-dominant seasons than in seasons when A(H3N2) or A(H1N1) predominated, and more than half of all influenza-associated mortality was associated with influenza B virus.

Conclusion

Between 2003 and 2008, seasonal influenza, particularly that caused by the influenza B virus, was associated with substantial mortality in three cities in the temperate north of China and five cities in the subtropical south of the country.     

Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy: an observational cohort study in China

Objective

To assess if cotrimoxazole prophylaxis administered early during antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality in Chinese adults who are infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

Methods

We did a retrospective observational cohort study using data from the Chinese national free antiretroviral database. Patients older than 14 years who started ART between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2012 and had baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte (CD4+ cell) count less than 200 cells/µL were followed until death, loss to follow-up or 31 December 2013. Hazard ratios (HRs) for several variables were calculated using multivariate analyses.

Findings

The analysis involved 23 816 HIV-infected patients, 2706 of whom died during the follow-up. Mortality in patients who did and did not start cotrimoxazole during the first 6 months of ART was 5.3 and 7.0 per 100 person–years, respectively. Cotrimoxazole was associated with a 37% reduction in mortality (hazard ratio, HR: 0.63; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.56–0.70). Cotrimoxazole in addition to ART reduced mortality significantly over follow-up lasting 6 months (HR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.59–0.73), 12 months (HR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.49–0.70), 18 months (HR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.38–0.63) and 24 months (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.48–0.90). The mortality reduction was evident in patients with baseline CD4+ cell counts less than 50 cells/µL (HR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.54–0.67), 50–99 cells/µL (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.56–0.78) and 100–199 cells/µL (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.62–0.98).

Conclusion

Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis started early during ART reduced mortality and should be offered to HIV-infected patients in low- and middle-income countries.     

Parity and risk of death from lung cancer among a cohort of premenopausal parous women in Taiwan

Background

We examined the association between parity and risk of lung cancer.

Methods

The study cohort consisted of all women with a record of a first singleton birth in the Taiwanese Birth Register between 1978 and 1987. We tracked each woman from the time of their first childbirth to 31 December 2009. Follow-up was terminated when the mother died, when she reached age 50 years, or on 31 December 2009, whichever occurred first. The vital status of mothers was ascertained by linking records with the computerized mortality database. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for death from lung cancer associated with parity.

Results

There were 1375 lung cancer deaths during 32 243 637.08 person-years of follow-up. The mortality rate of lung cancer was 4.26 cases per 100 000 person-years. As compared with women who had given birth to only 1 child, the adjusted HR was 1.13 (95% CI, 0.94–1.35) for women who had 2 children, 1.10 (0.91–1.33) for those who had 3 children, and 1.22 (0.96–1.54) for those who had 4 or more children.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that premenopausal women of higher parity tended to have an increased risk of lung cancer, although the trend was not statistically significant.Key words: lung cancer, parity, mortality, cohort study     

Comparative impact assessment of child pneumonia interventions

Objective

To compare the cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce pneumonia mortality through risk reduction, immunization and case management.

Methods

Country-specific pneumonia burden estimates and intervention costs from WHO were used to review estimates of pneumonia risk in children under 5 years of age and the efficacy of interventions (case management, pneumonia-related vaccines, improved nutrition and reduced indoor air pollution from household solid fuels). We calculated health benefits (disability-adjusted life years, DALYs, averted) and intervention costs over a period of 10 years for 40 countries, accounting for 90% of pneumonia child deaths.

Findings

Solid fuel use contributes 30% (90% confidence interval: 18–44) to the burden of childhood pneumonia. Efficacious community-based treatment, promotion of exclusive breastfeeding, zinc supplementation and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and Streptococcus pneumoniae immunization through existing programmes showed cost-effectiveness ratios of 10–60 International dollars (I$) per DALY in low-income countries and less than I$ 120 per DALY in middle-income countries. Low-emission biomass stoves and cleaner fuels may be cost-effective in low-income regions. Facility-based treatment is potentially cost-effective, with ratios of I$ 60–120 per DALY. The cost-effectiveness of community case management depends on home visit cost.

Conclusion

Vaccines against Hib and S. pneumoniae, efficacious case management, breastfeeding promotion and zinc supplementation are cost-effective in reducing pneumonia mortality. Environmental and nutritional interventions reduce pneumonia and provide other benefits. These strategies combined may reduce total child mortality by 17%.     

Exposing misclassified HIV/AIDS deaths in South Africa

Objective

To quantify the deaths from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) that are misattributed to other causes in South Africa’s death registration data and to adjust for this bias.

Methods

Deaths in the World Health Organization’s mortality database were distributed among 48 mutually exclusive causes. For each cause, age- and sex-specific global death rates were compared with the average rate among people aged 65–69, 70–74 and 75–79 years to generate “relative” global death rates. Relative rates were also computed for South Africa alone. Differences between global and South African relative death rates were used to identify the causes to which deaths from HIV/AIDS were misattributed in South Africa and quantify the HIV/AIDS deaths misattributed to each. These deaths were then reattributed to HIV/AIDS.

Findings

In South Africa, deaths from HIV/AIDS are often misclassified as being caused by 14 other conditions. Whereas in 1996–2006 deaths attributed to HIV/AIDS accounted for 2.0–2.5% of all registered deaths in South Africa, our analysis shows that the true cause-specific mortality fraction rose from 19% (uncertainty range: 7–28%) to 48% (uncertainty range: 38–50%) over that period. More than 90% of HIV/AIDS deaths were found to have been misattributed to other causes during 1996–2006.

Conclusion

Adjusting for cause of death misclassification, a simple procedure that can be carried out in any country, can improve death registration data and provide empirical estimates of HIV/AIDS deaths that may be useful in assessing estimates from demographic models.