ARIMA模型在三门峡市手足口病发病预测中的应用

目的 建立以三门峡市手足口病发病数据为基础的整合滑动平均自回归模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model, ARIMA),并利用该模型对三门峡市手足口病的发病数进行预测。 方法 以三门峡市2008年1月—2017年12月的手足口病月发病数据为基础差分平稳化后经过文献查阅和验证建立最优ARIMA,并对2018年1月—12月的手足口病发病数进行预测,通过与实际值的比较评价预测效果。 结果 三门峡市手足口病发病预测模型为ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂ ,模型各项参数均有统计学意义(P<0.001),拟合优度检验BIC=0.287,残差序列为白噪声序列(P=0.10),拟合效果较好。预测了三门峡市2018年1—12月的手足口发病数,并与实际值进行比较,1—2月预测值与实际值符合度较高。 结论 拟合的三门峡市手足口病发病序列模型ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂效果较好,可用于对三门峡市手足口病发病趋势进行短期预测。     

郴州市区道路交通噪声调查及其控制对策

目的　了解郴州市区道路交通噪声强度分布、存在的问题及提出解决办法。　方法　本文对市区道路交通昼夜噪声强度进行监测并作统计分析。　结果　通过计算得知白天街道两旁噪声超标率为 91%,夜间噪声超标率为99.7%。　结论　建议有关主管部门加大对市内车辆的管理和道路建设 ,将噪声污染降到最低限度。     

城市交通噪声污染及其对市民的影响

对福州市道路交通噪声污染程度及传播范围的测定，并调查交通噪声对市民的影响。结果表明：交通道路边的噪声值最高，距离路边越远，噪声值越小，离交通干道较远的居民区噪声值最低；一天中各个时段城市噪声值不同，白天比夜间噪声值高，且二者均超过国家标准；路边一定距离内噪声主要由道路中心噪声传播所致，它们与车流量有关；交通噪声对居住在路边的市民的睡眠、学习、生活等产生影响。     

1起中学生中的流感暴发调查

2006年1月15日11：00，三门峡市疾病预防控制中心接三门峡市实验中学报告，该校有30多名学生出现不明原因发热。接到报告后，三门峡市和湖滨区疾病预防控制中心立即组织专业人员前往调查并上报。接到报告后，河南省疾病预防控制中心迅速派专家赶赴现场进行指导。     

广州市番禺区2003和2004年环境噪声监测结果分析

目的为改善和治理番禺区声环境质量提供可靠的依据。方法按照（GB8222—1982）《城市环境噪声监测方法》和《环境监测技术规范（噪声部分）》要求进行测定。结果2004年度各功能区昼间环境噪声达到国家标准，但较2003年有所上升；区域环境噪声优于《城市区域环境噪声标准》的规定范围，较2003年下降；道路交通噪声加权平均等效声级值为67．9dB（A），低于4类区昼间环境噪声标准，超标干线占总路段8．5％。结论该区声环境各项指标达到国家标准，但仍处于较高污染水平，需加强声环境的治理工作。     

强化环境法治,规范噪声污染

《健康北京“十二五”发展建设规划》明确要求：严格监管建筑施工、工业、娱乐业等噪声污染，加强居民区噪声防护和道路交通噪声控制，营造更宁静的城市空间。     

三门峡市自来水水质周期性变化特征及因素分析

目的 研究三门峡市三水厂自来水水质的周期性特征及其影响因素。方法 对1998年-2000年三门峡市三水厂的源水，调蓄池，出厂水的每月水质监测资料进行分析。并对不同水温下聚合氯化铝降浊及活性炭的祛除藻毒素效果进行实验。结果出厂水氨氮，浊度，嗅，藻毒素以冬春季较高。结论 三门峡市自来水水质的周期性特征与三门峡水库蓄水周期，气候，及聚合氯化铝，活性炭的净水活性随气温变化有关。     

自回归移动平均混合模型在中国道路交通伤害预测中的应用

探讨时间序列分析的自回归移动平均混合模型(ARIMA)在中国道路交通伤害(RTI)预测中的应用。收集1951-2011年中国道路交通伤害资料, 进行时间序列分析, 建立ARIMA模型。构建得到RTI事故起数ARIMA(1, 1, 0)预测模型为Yt=eY+0.456Y+e, 其中, et为随机误差, 模型残差序列为白噪声, Ljung.Box检验P>O.05, 统计量无统计学意义, 拟合效果良好。应用该模型预测2011年中国RTI事故起数, 预测值与实际观测结果相符, 实际观测值在预测值95%CI内。用该模型预测2012年中国RTI事故起数, 预测值(95%c, )为207838(107579～401536)。应用ARIMA模型能较好地预测中国道路交通伤害情况。     

78起医疗卫生行政处罚案件分析

为了解三门峡市湖滨区医疗机构依法执业情况，现对2008年1～9月的78起医疗卫生行政处罚案件从案件来源、案由、违法主体等方面分析如下。     

一所城市医院的噪声水平及工作人员的主观反应

在许多工业发达的国家中，噪声已成为主要的环境问题和公害。噪声所致的健康危害从失听到植物神经调节反应，负效应的范围很广泛。在医疗机构中，这些有害的影响有特定的含意。显而易见，病人需要良好的环境来促进康复，工作人员需要适宜的工作条件。然而，医院内部及周围的噪声水平常常过高。尽管一些噪声源是必要的（如警报器、监护装置），但是，适当的设备保养和声级控制还是能减少不必要的噪声；另外，更多的噪声来源于探视者或职员不恰当的行为，而这样的噪声完全可被消除。偶尔，噪声来自外部声源（如道路交通噪声、航空噪声），在将…     

Calcium intake in the elderly: validation of a dietary questionnaire

Epidemiological studies of calcium and osteoporosis have been hampered by the lack of a suitable tool for assessing calcium intake. This report describes a new frequency and amount questionnaire for measuring present and past calcium intake in the elderly. The validity of the questionnaire was tested against two commonly used standards of dietary assessment, five-day duplicate diets and seven-day weighed dietary inventories. The resulting correlation coefficients were, respectively, r = 0.76 and r = 0.69, while that for repeatability was r = 0.84. Furthermore, the questionnaire categorized subjects into thirds of the distribution of intake with almost no gross misclassification. It is suggested that the present findings may be extended to the majority of normal, healthy elderly subjects, implying wide application for the questionnaire in the assessment of calcium intake in the elderly.     

The occurrence of antimicrobial substances in toilet,sink and shower drainpipes of clinical units: A neglected source of antibiotic residues

Antibiotics represent one of the most important drug groups used in the management of bacterial infections in humans and animals. Due to the increasing problem of antibiotic resistance, assurance of the antibacterial effectiveness of these substances has moved into the focus of public health. The reduction in antibiotic residues in wastewater and the environment may play a decisive role in the development of increasing rates of antibiotic resistance. The present study examines the wastewater of 31 patient rooms of various German clinics for possible residues of antibiotics, as well as the wastewater of five private households as a reference.To the best of our knowledge, this study shows for the first time that in hospitals with high antibiotic consumption rates, residues of these drugs can be regularly detected in toilets, sink siphons and shower drains at concentrations ranging from 0.02?μg·L^?1 to a maximum of 79?mg·L^?1. After complete flushing of the wastewater siphons, antibiotics are no longer detectable, but after temporal stagnation, the concentration of the active substances in the water phases of respective siphons increases again, suggesting that antibiotics persist through the washing process in biofilms. This study demonstrates that clinical wastewater systems offer further possibilities for the optimization of antibiotic resistance surveillance.     

Self-reported health problems among Swedish miners one year after unemployment

Unemployment is considered to be a public health concern sincedeterioration in the health of the unemployed is often anticipated.However, for some groups, such as miners, unemployment mightimprove health due to a cessation of potentially harmful occupationalexposures. This study evaluates the health of 79 miners in oneSwedish iron-ore mine, and 226 age-matched controls from thegeneral population, during one year after the closure of themine. The participants received a questionnaire regarding medicalhistory and subjective symptoms at the beginning of the studyperiod, and after one year. Statistically significant negativeeffects on self-reported health attributable to unemploymentwere not found, although neuropsychiatric symptoms were morecommon among the unemployed miners. The miners reported a statisticallysignificant improvement in grip force (p=0.031). They had asignificantly higher prevalence of symptoms associated withmining related exposures when compared with the population controls;pain in the upper extremities [relative risk (RR)=2.27, 95%confidence interval (Cl)=1.44–3.59), back pain (RR=1.84;Cl=1.237–2.75), vasospastic disease of the fingers (RR=2.05;Cl=1.18–3.57) and obstructive respiratory symptoms (attacksof dyspnea and wheezing: RR=3.67; Cl=1.167–11.6).     

Excès de cas humains et animaux de tularémie en France au cours de l’hiver 2007–2008 : émergence ou phénomène isolé ?

Context

Tularemia is a zoonosis affecting humans and hares in France. We describe the results of surveillance in both species, in 2007 and 2008.

Methods

Human tularemia cases are mandatorily notifiable in France since 2003. In hares, surveillance relies on volunteer hunter associations in all districts of the country. Data from mandatory reports and volunteer surveillance in 2007/2008 were analyzed and compared with previous results.

Results

In 2007/2008, 144 cases were reported in humans and 117 cases in hares. This was a 100% increase compared to previous years. Human cases differed from those of previous years only by the frequency of contact with breeding animals. Human cases without any documented risk exposure were also more frequent.

Conclusion

An increase of tularemia cases occurred in 2007/2008 in both species. Complementary studies are needed to identify the species reservoir in France to understand the causes of this peak of cases.     

Occupational health hazards in mining: an overview

This review article outlines the physical, chemical, biological, ergonomic and psychosocial occupational health hazards of mining and associated metallurgical processes. Mining remains an important industrial sector in many parts of the world and although substantial progress has been made in the control of occupational health hazards, there remains room for further risk reduction. This applies particularly to traumatic injury hazards, ergonomic hazards and noise. Vigilance is also required to ensure exposures to coal dust and crystalline silica remain effectively controlled.     

Manufacture and use of nanomaterials: current status in the UK and global trends

This paper provides an overview of the production and use of nanomaterials (NMs), particularly in the UK. Currently, relatively few companies in the UK are identifiable as NM manufacturers, the main emphasis being the bulk markets in metals and metal oxides, and some niche markets such as carbon nanotubes and quantum dots. NM manufacturing in the UK does not reflect the global emphasis on fullerenes, nanotubes and fibres. Some assumptions have been made about the types of NM that are likely to be imported into the UK, which currently include fullerenes, modified fullerenes and other carbon-based NMs including nanotubes. Many university departments, spin-offs and private companies have developed processes for the manufacture of NMs but may only be producing small quantities for research and development (R&D) purposes. However, some have the potential to scale up to produce large quantities. The nanotechnology industry in the UK has strong R&D backup from universities and related institutions. This review has covered R&D trends at such institutions, and appropriate information has been added to a searchable database. While several companies are including NMs in their products, only a few (e.g. manufacturers of paints, coatings, cosmetics, catalysts, polymer composites) are using nanoparticles (NPs) in any significant quantities. However, this situation is likely to change rapidly. There is a need to collect more information about exposure to NPs in both manufacturing and user scenarios. As the market grows, and as manufacturers switch from the micro- to the nanoscale, the potential for exposure will increase. More research is required to quantify any risks to workers and consumers.     

深圳公立医院管理体制改革制度设计

深圳公立医院管理体制改革实行政事分开、管办分开,在理事会架构下按法定机构模式组建市医管中心,落实公立医院运营管理自主权.作者从当前公立医院管理体制的弊端入手,介绍了深圳市进行公立医院管理体制改革的基本思路及改革方案设计的主要举措,深入剖析了的改革方案的特点,并对改革效果进行了预测.     

Effects of nitrogen dioxide on red blood cells of rats: Changes in components of red cell membranes during in vivo exposure to NO2

Red cell membranes, prepared from red blood cells of rats exposed to 4, 10, or 20 ppm nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) for 1 to 10 days, were examined for evidence of changes in membrane components. Appreciable changes were not found in contents of phospholipid and cholesterol during exposure to 10 ppm NO₂. By contrast, protein content altered with the time of exposure. Moreover, changes in protein composition were observed by employing sodium dodecyl sulfate — polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Twenty-four-hour exposure to NO₂ at the concentration above 10 ppm resulted in a marked increase in the percentage of lysophosphatidylethanolamine (LysoPE) to the total phospholipids. The prolonged exposure to 10 ppm NO₂ gave rise to a further increase in LysoPE, whereas the percentage of phosphatidylethanolamine (PE) showed a gradual decrease. A 1-day exposure to 4.0 ppm NO₂ also caused an increase in sialic acid content and decreases in those of PE and hexose. In addition to contents of these components the percentage of LysoPE increased 5 days after exposure and the elevated values were maintained up to the end of exposure period. These results demonstrate that red blood cells in circulation exhibit different membrane properties in terms of lipid and carbohydrate composition during 10 days of exposure to 4.0 ppm NO₂.     

Investigating clusters in the workplace and beyond

Clusters of disease are common and occur in the workplace and in the general community. They often arouse considerable concern among the population. Investigations have sometimes lead to exciting new knowledge, but in general the investigation of clusters is difficult and often unrewarding, especially for community clusters. In the workplace, investigations are more likely to find associations and even new causes, but still many clusters remain enigmatic. Despite this, there are many reasons for investigating clusters, including allaying community concern and identifying uncontrolled exposures. A structure for investigating clusters in the workplace is suggested.