The Relationship Between Static and Dynamic Risk Factors and Reconviction in a Sample of U.K. Child Abusers

This study examined how well historical information and psychometric data predicted sexual recidivism in a sample of child abusers about to undergo group-based cognitive behavioral treatment in the community. Static, historical factors, as measured by the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 2000), significantly predicted recidivism over the 6-year follow-up period. High-risk men were over 5 times more likely to be reconvicted for a sexual offence compared to low-risk men. Adding psychometric measures of dynamic risk (e.g., pro-offending attitudes, socio-affective problems) significantly increased the accuracy of risk prediction beyond the level achieved by the actuarial assessment of static factors. This result indicates the importance of considering dynamic risk factors in any comprehensive risk protocol.     

Does Static-99 Predict Recidivism Among Older Sexual Offenders?

Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) is the most commonly used actuarial risk tool for estimating sexual offender recidivism risk. Recent research has suggested that its methods of accounting for the offenders’ ages may be insufficient to capture declines in recidivism risk associated with advanced age. Using data from 8 samples (combined size of 3,425 sexual offenders), the present study found that older offenders had lower Static-99 scores than younger offenders and that Static-99 was moderately accurate in estimating relative recidivism risk in all age groups. Older offenders, however, had lower sexual recidivism rates than would be expected based on their Static-99 risk categories. Consequently, evaluators using Static-99 should considered advanced age in their overall estimate of risk.     

Recent research (N = 9,305) underscores the importance of using age-stratified actuarial tables in sex offender risk assessments

A useful understanding of the relationship between age, actuarial scores, and sexual recidivism can be obtained by comparing the entries in equivalent cells from "age-stratified" actuarial tables. This article reports the compilation of the first multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates, referred to as the "multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates (MATS-1)," from recent research on Static-99 and another actuarial known as the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale. The MATS-1 validates the "age invariance effect" that the risk of sexual recidivism declines with advancing age and shows that age-restricted tables underestimate risk for younger offenders and overestimate risk for older offenders. Based on data from more than 9,000 sex offenders, our conclusion is that evaluators should report recidivism estimates from age-stratified tables when they are assessing sexual recidivism risk, particularly when evaluating the aging sex offender.     

Constructing and Testing a Framework for Dynamic Risk Assessment

This paper describes the construction and testing of a framework for dynamic risk assessment. A review of previous studies identified 4 domains into which dynamic risk factors for sexual offending seem to fall. These were sexual interests, distorted attitudes, socioaffective functioning, and self-management. Psychometric indicators for 3 of the domains were identified, and 2 studies are reported using these indicators to test the framework. Study 1 divided men serving a prison sentence for a sexual offense against a child into 2 groups—those with a previous conviction of this kind (Repeaters) and those for whom this was the only time they had been sentenced for such an offense (Current Only). The Repeaters were found to show more distorted attitudes, worse socioaffective functioning, and poorer self-management than did the Current Only group. Study 2 used a simple algorithm to combine these psychometric indicators into an overall Deviance classification. Reconviction data was obtained for offenders classified as high, moderate, or low on Deviance. Sexual reconviction was found to be monotonically associated with the Deviance classification. Logistic regression analysis showed that both static variables (Static-99) and the Deviance classification made independent contributions to prediction. It is suggested that risk assessment procedures should combine these 2 approaches.     

Comparison of Two Risk Assessment Instruments for Sexual Offenders

The current research examines the predictive validity of the Static-99 and the SORAG in predicting sexual and violent recidivism among a sample of 258 treated high-risk sexual offenders. While the SORAG was found to have moderate predictive accuracy for both sexual and violent recidivism over a 5-year follow-up period, the Static-99 was found to only predict sexual recidivism. As well, the actual recidivism rates in the current sample were compared to the published risk percentages for each of the instruments. For both the Static-99 and the SORAG the current sample re-offended at a lower rate than expected. Possible explanations for this finding are discussed.     

The Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS): Psychometric Properties and Incremental Predictive Validity With Static-99R

The Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS) is a 16-item rating scale designed to assess dynamic risk among adult male sex offenders and degree of change at 6-month intervals during treatment. The purpose of the present study was to examine the psychometric properties of the SOTIPS in a construction sample of 759 adult male sex offenders who were under correctional supervision and enrolled in cognitive-behavioral community treatment in Vermont between 2001 and 2007. The scale showed acceptable interrater reliability. SOTIPS scores at 1, 7, and 13 months after participants began treatment predicted sexual, violent, and any recidivism, and return to prison at fixed 1- and 3-year follow-up periods (AUCs = .60 to .85). Combined SOTIPS and Static-99R scores predicted all recidivism types (AUCs = .67 to .89) and outperformed either instrument alone when both instruments had similar predictive power. Participants who demonstrated treatment progress, as reflected by reductions in SOTIPS scores, showed lower rates of recidivism than those who did not.     

A comparison of modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide

The predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sex offenders, modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, was examined and compared in a sample of 258 adult male sex offenders. In addition, the independent contributions to the prediction of recidivism made by each instrument and by various phallometric indices were explored. Both instruments demonstrated moderate levels of predictive accuracy for sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism. They were not significantly different in terms of their predictive accuracy for sexual or violent recidivism, nor did they contribute independently to the prediction of sexual or violent recidivism. Of the phallometric indices examined, only the pedophile index added significantly to the prediction of sexual recidivism, but not violent recidivism, above the Static-99 alone.     

Psychopathy, Sexual Deviance, and Recidivism Among Sex Offenders

The relationships between psychopathy, sex offender type, sexual deviance, and recidivism were examined in 156 federally incarcerated sex offenders in a 10-year follow-up study. The rapists and mixed offenders demonstrated higher psychopathy scores than did the child molesters and incest offenders (total scores and Factor 2 scores on the Psychopathy Checklist--Revised [PCL-R]; R. D. Hare, 2003). Factor 1 scores were approximately the same in all groups. The PCL-R was a weak predictor of sexual recidivism but consistently predicted nonsexual violent recidivism and general recidivism (mainly via Factor 2). Sexual deviance measured by a structured rating scheme predicted sexual recidivism. Sexual deviance, so rated, was a stronger predictor of sexual recidivism than psychopathy but the two interacted significantly suggesting that psychopathy could potentiate sexual recidivism. Although psychopathy was a strong positive predictor of general nonsexual recidivism, sexual deviance was inversely related, and no interaction was observed between psychopathy, sexual deviance, and nonsexual recidivism.     

Accuracy of Actuarial Procedures for Assessment of Sexual Offender Recidivism Risk May Vary Across Ethnicity

Little is known about whether the accuracy of tools for assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk holds across ethnic minority offenders. I investigated the predictive validity across ethnicity for the RRASOR and the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment procedures in a national cohort of all adult male sex offenders released from prison in Sweden 1993-1997. Subjects ordered out of Sweden upon release from prison were excluded and remaining subjects (N = 1303) divided into three subgroups based on citizenship. Eighty-three percent of the subjects were of Nordic ethnicity, and non-Nordic citizens were either of non-Nordic European (n = 49, hereafter called European) or African Asian descent (n = 128). The two tools were equally accurate among Nordic and European sexual offenders for the prediction of any sexual and any violent nonsexual recidivism. In contrast, neither measure could differentiate African Asian sexual or violent recidivists from nonrecidivists. Compared to European offenders, AfricanAsian offenders had more often sexually victimized a nonrelative or stranger, had higher Static-99 scores, were younger, more often single, and more often homeless. The results require replication, but suggest that the promising predictive validity seen with some risk assessment tools may not generalize across offender ethnicity or migration status. More speculatively, different risk factors or causal chains might be involved in the development or persistence of offending among minority or immigrant sexual abusers.     

Stability of the Interpretative Risk Percentages for the RRASOR and Static-99

Current procedures to estimate sex offender recidivism risk typically involve actuarial instruments, either alone or in combination with adjustments based on other considerations. Two of the most commonly employed actuarial instruments for the assessment of sexual recidivism risk are the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR; R. K. Hanson, 1997) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 2000). Although multiple studies of the interrater reliability and predictive validity of these instruments have been completed, with very supportive results, there have to date not been any studies of the degree to which the specific risk percentages attached to each instruments score replicate and remain stable despite changes in underlying samples' recidivism base rates. This study, using data from multiple sources, investigated this issue. The findings indicated that the 5-year risk percentages for the RRASOR were replicated and were remarkably stable despite changes in the samples underlying recidivism base rate. The Static-99 5-year risk percentages were mostly replicated and were stable across varying base rates, but to a lesser degree than was found for the RRASOR. Implications of these results are discussed.     

Improving the predictive accuracy of Static-99 and Static-2002 with older sex offenders: revised age weights

Actuarial risk assessment scales and their associated recidivism estimates are generally developed on samples of offenders whose average age is well below 50 years. Criminal behavior of all types declines with age; consequently, actuarial scales tend to overestimate recidivism for older offenders. The current study aimed to develop a revised scoring system for two risk assessment tools (Static-99 and Static-2002) that would more accurately describe older offenders' risk of recidivism. Using data from 8,390 sex offenders derived from 24 separate samples, age was found to add incremental predictive validity to both Static-99 and Static-2002. After creating new age weights, the resulting instruments (Static-99R and Static-2002R) had only slightly higher relative predictive accuracy. The absolute recidivism estimates, however, provided a substantially better fit for older offenders than the recidivism estimates from the original scales. We encourage evaluators to adopt the revised scales with the new age weights.     

A Structured Approach to Evaluating Change Among Sexual Offenders

Presently, there are no established scales that evaluate change in risk among sexual offenders. The Sex Offender Need Assessment Rating (SONAR) was developed to fill this gap. The SONAR includes five relatively stable factors (intimacy deficits, negative social influences, attitudes tolerant of sex offending, sexual self-regulation, general self-regulation) and four acute factors (substance abuse, negative mood, anger, victim access). The psychometric properties of the scale were examined using data previously collected by Hanson and Harris (1998, 2000). Overall, the scale showed adequate internal consistency and moderate ability to differentiate between recidivists and nonrecidivists (r = .43; ROC area of .74). SONAR continued to distinguish between the groups after controlling for well-established risk indicators, such as age, and scores on the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (Quinsey, Harris, Rice, & Cormier, 1998).     

Assessing youth who sexually offended: the predictive validity of the ERASOR, J-SOAP-II, and YLS/CMI in a non-Western context

Recent research suggested that the predictive validity of adult sexual offender risk assessment measures can be affected when used cross-culturally, but there is no published study on the predictive validity of risk assessment measures for youth who sexually offended in a non-Western context. This study compared the predictive validity of three youth risk assessment measures (i.e., the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism [ERASOR], the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II [J-SOAP-II], and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory [YLS/CMI]) for sexual and nonviolent recidivism in a sample of 104 male youth who sexually offended within a Singaporean context (M (follow-up) = 1,637 days; SD (follow-up) = 491). Results showed that the ERASOR overall clinical rating and total score significantly predicted sexual recidivism but only the former significantly predicted time to sexual reoffense. All of the measures (i.e., the ERASOR overall clinical rating and total score, the J-SOAP-II total score, as well as the YLS/CMI) significantly predicted nonsexual recidivism and time to nonsexual reoffense for this sample of youth who sexually offended. Overall, the results suggest that the ERASOR appears to be suited for assessing youth who sexually offended in a non-Western context, but the J-SOAP-II and the YLS/CMI have limited utility for such a purpose.     

The Factor Structure of Static Actuarial Items: Its Relation to Prediction

Principal components analysis was conducted on items contained in actuarial instruments used with adult sex offenders, including: the Rapid Assessment of Sex Offender Risk for Recidivism (RASORR), the Static-99, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R). In a data set that included child molesters and rapists (N = 311), six interpretable components were identified: Antisocial Behavior, Child Sexual Abuse, Persistence, Detached Predatory Behavior, Young and Single, and Male Victim(s). The RRASOR was highly correlated with Persistence, and the VRAG and SORAG were highly correlated with Antisocial Behavior. Antisocial Behavior was a significant predictor of violent recidivism, while Persistence and Child Sexual Abuse were significant predictors of sexual recidivism.     

Unguided Clinical and Actuarial Assessment of Re-offending Risk: A Direct Comparison with Sex Offenders in Denmark

Meta-analyses suggest that actuarial risk assessments outperform unguided clinical judgment for prediction of recidivism in criminal offenders. However, there is a lack of direct comparisons of the predictive accuracy of clinical judgment and actuarial risk scales for sexual offenders. We followed up 121 male sex offenders (≥18 years) subjected to pre-trial forensic psychiatric assessment in Denmark in 1978–1992 (mean post-detainment time = 16.4 years) to compare the predictive validity of unstructured clinical judgment of recidivism risk with that of the well-established Static-99 (Hanson and Thornton, Law and Human Behavior 24:119–136, 2000) and an extension of the Static-99, the Static-2002 (Hanson and Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Rep. No. 2003–01), Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada, Ottawa, Canada, 2003). The predictive accuracy of unguided judgment did not exceed chance for any sexual, severe sexual or any violent (sexual or non-sexual) reconviction (AUCs of the ROC curve = 0.52, 95%CI = 0.41–0.63; 0.50, 95%CI = 0.34–0.67; and 0.57, 95%CI = 0.40–0.73, respectively). In contrast, all three outcomes were predicted significantly better than chance by the Static-99 (AUC = 0.62, 95%CI = 0.52–0.72; 0.72, 95%CI = 0.59–0.84; and 0.71, 95%CI = 0.56–0.86) and the Static-2002 (AUC = 0.67, 95%CI = 0.57–0.77; 0.69, 95%CI = 0.56–0.83; and 0.70, 95%CI = 0.55–0.86). Static-99 outperformed clinical judgment for sexual recidivision (χ² = 5.11, df = 1, p < .05). The Static-2002 was significantly more accurate for the prediction of any sexual recidivism as compared to unguided clinical judgment but its advantage fell just short of statistical significance for severe sexual recidivism (χ ² = 3.56, df = 1, p = 0.06). When tested for recidivism within 2 years, none of the three prediction methods yielded results significantly better than chance for any outcome. This direct trial of the unguided clinical method argues against its continued use for risk assessment of sexual offenders.     

Evaluation of the SORAG and the Static-99 on Belgian Sex Offenders Committed to a Forensic Facility

This study evaluated the convergent and predictive validity of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG; V. L. Quinsey, G. T. Harris, M. E. Rice, & C. A. Cormier, 1998) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 1999, 2000) among 147 male sex offenders committed to a high-security hospital in Belgium (Centre de Défense Sociale “Les Marronniers”). Of the sample, 63.8% were child abusers (victims under 14 years of age), 24.6% were rapists (victims aged 14 years or more), and 11.5% were mixed-victim offenders (victims less than 14 years of age and victims aged 14 years or more). After an average follow-up period of 4.2 years (SD = 3.4 years), the sexual recidivism rate was 25.2%, the violent recidivism rate was 17.1%, and the general (any) recidivism rate was 33.1%. The SORAG and the Static-99 were moderately correlated with each other (r = .55), and both showed strong predictive validity for general and violent recidivism (ROC AUC's ranging from .68 to .72 for the total sample). Both instruments showed moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism (AUC of .64 for SORAG and .66 for Static-99).     

Another piece of the puzzle: psychometric properties of the J-SOAP-II

The authors reviewed nine studies examining psychometric properties of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II) and examined the psychometric properties of the J-SOAP-II when items were scored based on probation records obtained at or near disposition and prior to treatment. Data from 73 boys ages 12 to 17 who participated in a larger randomized clinical trial informed this study. Reliability (internal consistency and interrater agreement) and validity (concurrent, discriminant, and predictive) were examined. Scale 1, Sexual Drive/Preoccupation, was characterized by adequate reliability and concurrent validity but did not predict scores on a measure of concerning sexual behavior. This is consistent with seven studies that failed to find evidence of predictive validity using measures of sexual recidivism. Also consistent with the literature, Scale 2, Impulsive/Antisocial Behavior, performed well with respect to nearly all psychometric properties including predictive validity. Review of remaining scales and scores and clinical policy implications are discussed.     

Prospective validity of the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR)

Data from the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR; Worling & Curwen) were collected for a sample of 191 adolescent males who had offended sexually. Adolescents were aged 12 to 19 years (M = 15.34; SD = 1.53) at the time of their participation in a comprehensive assessment. The ERASOR was completed by 1 of 22 clinicians immediately following each assessment. Forty-five adolescents were independently rated by pairs of clinicians, and significant interrater agreement was found for the ERASOR risk factors, the clinical judgment ratings (low, moderate, or high), and a total score. Recidivism data (criminal charges) were subsequently collected from three sources that spanned a follow-up period between 0.1 and 7.9 years (M = 3.66; SD = 2.08). Overall, 9.4% (18 of 191) of the adolescents were charged with a subsequent sexual offense over this time period. A shorter follow-up interval of up to 2.5 years (M = 1.4; SD = 0.71) was also examined. Recidivism data for the shorter follow-up interval were available for a subgroup of 70 adolescents, with a comparable recidivism rate of 8.6% (6 of 70). Clinical judgment ratings, the total score, and the sum of risk factors rated as present were significantly predictive of sexual reoffending for the short follow-up period. The total score and the sum of risk factors were predictive of sexual reoffending over the entire follow-up interval. These results add to the emerging research supporting the reliability and validity of structured risk assessment tools for adolescent sexual recidivism.     

General and victim-specific empathy: associations with actuarial risk, treatment outcome, and sexual recidivism

An empathy-related component has been included in most sex offender treatment programs since the 1980s; however, research linking empathy to sexual offending and/or to treatment outcome has produced mixed findings. This study examined the relationship between victim specific empathy, general empathy, and overall treatment change (determined by responses on a battery of psychometric tests) with static risk (Risk Matrix 2000 [RM 2000]) and sexual offense reconviction data in a sample of 105 offenders who completed treatment while in prison or in the community in England and Wales and followed up for an average period of more than 10 years. Victim-specific empathy improved from pretreatment to posttreatment and related to overall treatment change. A small group of offenders, whose victim empathy scores deteriorated from pretreatment to posttreatment, had higher rates of sexual recidivism compared with the rest of the sample. In contrast, neither were any reliable pretreatment to posttreatment changes noted on general empathy scores, except for an indication on the Interpersonal Reactivity Index Personal Distress Scale, nor was any relationship found to sexual recidivism. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to treatment goals and sexual recidivism.     

Construct validity of Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 scores

We addressed the construct validity of Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 scores by examining correlations between selected items and validated independent measures of relevant constructs in samples of convicted sex offenders. In Study 1, the Child Molester Attitudes item of the Stable-2000 shared 23% of the variance with a self-report measure of beliefs supportive of child molestation, r(19) = .48. The Deviant Sexual Interests items of the Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 shared 7% to 66% of the variance, respectively, with an offense-history-based measure of pedophilic interests, r(18) = .27 for the Stable-2000 and r(11) = .81 for the Stable-2007. In Study 2, the Lovers/Intimate Partners, General Social Rejection/Loneliness, Rapist Attitudes, and Child Molester Attitudes items of the Stable-2000 shared 4% to 19% of the variance with self-report measures of, respectively, intimacy, r(90) = -.44; loneliness, r(88) = .34; beliefs supportive of rape, r(72) = .21; and beliefs supportive of child molestation, r(78) = .36. The results generally suggest that the Stable items examined are associated with measures of similar constructs; however, the degree of convergence was lower than expected. More systematic and comprehensive research is needed to examine convergence of the Stable items with other relevant measures and additional aspects of construct validity. Such efforts will provide a clearer understanding of dynamic risk factors, appropriate areas of focus for treatment efforts, and, more generally, why some sex offenders recidivate.