Determinants of postintensive care unit mortality: a prospective multicenter study

OBJECTIVE: Six to 25 percent of patients discharged alive from the intensive care unit (ICU) die before hospital discharge. Although this post-ICU mortality may indicate premature discharge from a full ICU or suboptimal management in the ICU or ward, another factor may be discharge from the ICU as part of a decision to limit treatment of hopelessly ill patients. We investigated determinants of post-ICU mortality, with special attention to this factor. DESIGN: Prospective, multicenter, database study. SETTING: Seven ICUs in or near Paris, France. PATIENTS: A total of 1,385 patients who were discharged alive from an ICU after a stay of > or = 48 hrs; 150 (10.8%) died before hospital discharge. Decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatments were implemented in the ICUs in 80 patients, including 47 (58.7%) who died before hospital discharge. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In the univariate analysis, post-ICU mortality was associated with advanced age, poor chronic health status, severe comorbidities, severity and organ failure scores (Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, sepsis-related organ failure assessment, and Logistic Organ Dysfunction at admission and at ICU discharge), decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatments, and Omega score (reflecting ICU resource utilization and length of ICU stay). Multivariate stepwise logistic regression identified five independent determinants of post-ICU mortality: McCabe class 1 (odds ratio, 0.388 [95% confidence interval, 0.26-0.58]), transfer from a ward (odds ratio, 1.89 [95% confidence interval, 1.27-2.80]), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II score at admission >36 (odds ratio, 1.57 [95% confidence interval, 1.6-2.33]), decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatments (odds ratio, 9.64 [95% confidence interval, 5.75-16.6]), and worse sepsis-related organ failure assessment score at discharge (odds ratio, 1.11 [95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.18] per point). CONCLUSIONS: More than 10% of ICU survivors died before hospital discharge. Determinants of post-ICU mortality included variables reflecting patient status before and during the ICU stay. However, the most powerful predictor of post-ICU mortality was the decision to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatments in the ICU, suggesting that the decision has been made not to use the unique services of the ICU for these patients.     

Evaluation of the SOFA score: a single-center experience of a medical intensive care unit in 303 consecutive patients with predominantly cardiovascular disorders

Objective: To evaluate the use of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, the total maximum SOFA (TMS) score, and a derived variable, the ΔSOFA (TMS score minus total SOFA score on day 1) in medical, cardiovascular patients as a means for describing the incidence and severity of organ dysfunction and the prognostic value regarding outcome. Design: Prospective, clinical study. Setting: Medical intensive care unit in a university hospital. Patients: A total of 303 consecutive patients were included (216 men, 87 women; mean age 62 ± 12.6 years; SAPS II 26.2 ± 12.7). They were evaluated 24 h after admission and thereafter every 24 h until ICU discharge or death between November 1997 and March 1998. Readmissions and patients with an ICU stay shorter than 12 h were excluded. Main outcome measure: Survival status at hospital discharge, incidence of organ dysfunction/failure. Interventions: Collection of clinical and demographic data and raw data for the computation of the SOFA score every 24 h until ICU discharge. Measurements and main results: Length of ICU stay was 3.7 ± 4.7 days. ICU mortality was 8.3 % and hospital mortality 14.5 %. Nonsurvivors had a higher total SOFA score on day 1 (5.9 ± 3.7 vs. 1.9 ± 2.3, p < 0.001) and thereafter until day 8. High SOFA scores for any organ system and increasing number of organ failures (SOFA score ≥ 3) were associated with increased mortality. Cardiovascular and neurological systems (day 1) were related to outcome and cardiovascular and respiratory systems, and admission from another ICU to length of ICU stay. TMS score was higher in nonsurvivors (1.76 ± 2.55 vs. 0.58 ± 1.39, p < 0.01), and ΔSOFA/total SOFA on day 1 was independently related to outcome. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.86 for TMS, 0.82 for SOFA on day 1, and 0.77 for SAPS II. Conclusions: The SOFA, TMS, and ΔSOFA scores provide the clinician with important information on degree and progression of organ dysfunction in medical, cardiovascular patients. On day 1 both SOFA score and TMS score had a better prognostic value than SAPS II score. The model is closely related to outcome and identifies patients who are at increased risk for prolonged ICU stay. Received: 6 August 1999 Final revision received: 3 January 2000 Accepted: 28 March 2000     

Post-ICU mortality in critically ill infected patients: an international study

Objective To determine the incidence and risk factors for post-ICU mortality in patients with infection.Design and setting International observational cohort study including 28 ICUs in eight countries.Patients All 1,872 patients discharged alive from the ICU over a 1-year period were screened for infection at ICU admission and daily throughout the ICU stay. Outcomes at ICU and hospital discharge were recorded.Measurements and results Post-ICU death occurred in 195 (10.4%) patients and was associated in the multivariable analysis with age, chronic respiratory failure, immunosuppression, cirrhosis, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II on the first day with infection, and LOD score at ICU discharge. Post-ICU death was more common among medical patients and patients with hospital-acquired infection or microbiologically documented infection and was less common in patients with pneumonia.Conclusions Post-ICU death in patients with infection was within previously reported ranges in overall ICU populations. The main risk factors were patient and infection characteristics, severity at ICU admission, and persistent organ dysfunction at ICU discharge. Further interventions such as further ICU management, discharge to a step-down unit, or follow-up by intensivists on the ward should be evaluated in patients with a high risk of post-ICU mortalityElectronic Supplementary Material Electronic supplementary material to this paper can be obtained by using the Springer Link server located at .Supported by an educational grant from Roche.     

Changes in severity and organ failure scores as prognostic factors in onco-hematological malignancy patients admitted to the ICU

Objective To determine whether severity and organ failure scores over the first 3 days in an ICU predict in-hospital mortality in onco-hematological malignancy patients.Design and setting Retrospective study in a 22-bed medical ICU.Patients 92 consecutive patients with onco-hematological malignancies including 20 hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) patients (11 with allogenic HSCT).Measurements Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Organ Dysfunction and/or Infection (ODIN) score, Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score were recorded on admission. The change in each score (Δ score) during the first 3 days in the ICU was calculated as follows: severity or organ failure score on day 3 minus severity or organ failure score on day 1, divided by severity or organ failure score on day 1.Results In-hospital mortality was 58%. Using multivariate analysis in-hospital mortality was predicted by all scores on day 1 and all Δ scores. Areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves were similar for SAPS II (0.78), ODIN (0.78), LODS (0.83), and SOFA (0.78) scores at day 1. They were also similar for ΔSAPS II, ΔODIN, ΔLODS, and ΔSOFA. Similar results were observed when excluding patients with allogenic HSCT.Conclusion Severity and three organ failure scores on day 1 and Δ scores perform similarly in predicting in-hospital mortality in ICU onco-hematological malignancy patients but do not predict individual outcome. Decision to admit such patients to the ICU or to forgo life-sustaining therapies should not be based on these scores.Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and is accesible for authorized users.     

Daily evaluation of organ function during renal replacement therapy in intensive care unit patients with acute renal failure

PurposeThe aim of this study was to assess changes in organ function in acute renal failure patients during renal replacement therapy and relate them to outcome.Materials and MethodsMedical and nursing charts from 111 patients with acute renal failure who underwent renal replacement therapy (hemodialysis or hemofiltration) from July 2000 until July 2002 on a 31-bed medicosurgical intensive care unit (ICU) at a university hospital in Belgium and in whom the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was calculated daily before the start of therapy until the seventh day, or the end of therapy, were analyzed. Changes in SOFA score over time (Δ SOFA) were calculated.ResultsOf 111 patients, 63 (57%) died in the ICU. Nonsurvivors were older (68 [52-76] vs 59 [48-70] years, P = .017) and had initially higher respiratory, cardiovascular, and total SOFA scores compared with survivors. A greater Δ renal SOFA at 24 hours was associated univariantly with a higher risk of ICU mortality (odds ratio, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-2.6; P = .013). In a multivariate analysis with ICU outcome as the dependent variable, only age, cardiovascular SOFA score on admission, and the change in total SOFA score over the first 24 hours were independently associated with a greater risk of death.ConclusionsAssessment of these factors in the first 24 hours of renal replacement therapy could help identify patients at higher risk of mortality early during their ICU admission.     

Strong vasopressor support may be futile in the intensive care unit patient with multiple organ failure

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to determine the prognosis in patients who needed norepinephrine treatment in our institution in relation to the degree of organ failure and the evolution of the disease process. DESIGN: Retrospective case note analysis of outcome of those patients who needed norepinephrine according to our institutional regimen. PATIENTS: A total of 100 consecutive patients admitted to our 31-bed medical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU) who were treated with norepinephrine for severe hypotension and evidence of end-organ hypoperfusion unresponsive to both fluid resuscitation and dopamine treatment at 20 microg/kg/min. MEASUREMENTS: The degree of organ dysfunction at the time of starting norepinephrine treatment was assessed by the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score. The time before starting norepinephrine treatment was defined as the time elapsed between ICU admission and that of starting norepinephrine administration. The patients were defined as survivors or nonsurvivors according to their ICU outcome. RESULTS: There were relationships between mortality and the degree of organ dysfunction and mortality and the duration of ICU stay before starting norepinephrine treatment. The mortality rate was 100% in the 30 patients with a total SOFA score of >12 and a delay before starting norepinephrine treatment of >1 day. The mortality rate of the other patients was 63%. The lowest mortality was seen in patients with lower SOFA scores and early norepinephrine administration after admission. CONCLUSIONS: Both the time of starting norepinephrine treatment after admission to the ICU and the degree of organ dysfunction have an important bearing on subsequent outcome. Although norepinephrine may be a lifesaving catecholamine in some cases, its administration to patients who have already developed multiple organ failure during their stay in the ICU is associated with a poor outcome.     

Nursing Activities Score in the intensive care unit: analysis of the related factors.

BACKGROUND: High costs of intensive care as well as quality of care and patient safety demand measurement of nursing workload in order to determine nursing staff requirements. It is also important to be aware of the factors related to high patient care demands in order to help forecast staff requirements in intensive care units (ICUs). OBJECTIVES: To describe nursing workload using the Nursing Activities Score (NAS); to explore the association between NAS and patients variables, i.e. gender, age, length of stay (LOS), ICU discharge, treatment in the ICU, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and Therapeutic Interventions Scoring System-28 (TISS-28). METHODS: NAS, demographic data, SAPS II and TISS-28 were analysed among 200 patients from four different ICUs in a private hospital in S?o Paulo, Brazil. RESULTS: NAS median were 66.4%. High NAS scores (> 66.4%) were associated with death (p-value 0.006) and LOS (p-value 0.015). Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that TISS-28 scores above 23 and SAPS II scores above 46.5 points, classified as high, increased 5.45 and 2.78 times, respectively, the possibility of a high workload as compared to lower values of the same indexes. CONCLUSION: This study shows that the highest NAS scores were associated with increased mortality, LOS, severity of the patient illness (SAPS II), and particularly to TISS-28 in the ICU.     

冠脉搭桥病人术后器官功能评分和预后分析

目的　采用序贯器官衰竭估计 (SOFA)评价急诊和择期冠状动脉搭桥 (CABG)术后的器官功能并对预后进行分析。方法　急诊CABG和择期CABG病人各 4 2例 ,进行回顾性分析。根据SOFA评分标准 ,确定术后在重症监护病房 (ICU)期间每天的器官功能评分 ,比较两组病人SOFA总分 (totalSOFAscore) ,分析总的最高SOFA评分 (TMS)以及各器官最差SOFA评分与预后的关系。结果　急诊组的死亡率高于择期组 (P <0 0 5 )。急诊组术后前 5d的SOFA总分均高于择期组 (P <0 0 1) ,死亡病例的TMS、除肝脏外的器官最差评分均高于存活病例 (P <0 0 5或 P <0 0 1) ,Logistic回归分析发现呼吸、心血管和中枢神经系统与死亡相关 (P <0 0 1)。急诊组存活病例的TMS高于择期组 (P <0 0 1) ,心血管支持时间和ICU停留时间较长 (P <0 0 5或P <0 0 1)。存活病例的ICU停留时间和TMS之间存在相关性 ,相关系数为 0 4 5 2 (P <0 0 1)。结论　SOFA是反映CABG病人预后的指标。急诊CABG术后器官功能评分较高 ,预后较差 ,与呼吸、心血管和中枢神经系统功能障碍有关。     

Clopidogrel resistance "Live" – the risk of stent thrombosis should be evaluated before procedures

Background

Endothelial cell dysfunction, by promoting fibrin deposition, has been implicated in the development of multiple organ failure. Altered fibrinolysis during inflammation may participate in microvascular alterations. We sought to determine whether plasma fibrinolysis was related to the severity of organ dysfunction and/or to the levels of von Willebrand factor (vWF antigen), as a marker of endothelium dysfunction, in critically ill patients.

Methods

Forty-nine consecutive patients admitted to an adult medico-surgical intensive care unit (ICU) with (18) or without sepsis (31) were included. C-reactive protein and vWF levels were measured on ICU admission and plasma fibrinolysis was assessed by the Euglobulin Clot Lysis Time (ECLT). The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score and the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II were calculated on admission.

Results

ECLT was significantly longer in septic than in non-septic patients [1033 min (871–1372) versus 665 min (551–862), p = 0.001]. There were significant correlations between ECLT and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations (r = 0.78, p < 0.001) and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (r = 0.39, p = 0.006). The level of vWF was not correlated with the ECLT (r = -0.06, p = 0.65) or the SOFA score (r = -0.02, p = 0.88).

Conclusion

ECLT measurement at admission could be a marker of organ dysfunction and a prognostic indicator in critically ill patients.     

Application of SOFA score to trauma patients

Objective: To assess the ability of the SOFA score (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) to describe the evolution of organ dysfunction/failure in trauma patients over time in intensive care units (ICU). Design: Retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected database. Setting: 40 ICUs in 16 countries. Patients: All trauma patients admitted to the ICU in May 1995. Main outcome measures and results: Incidence of dysfunction/failure of different organs during the first 10 days of stay and the relation between the dysfunction, outcome, and length of stay. Included in the SOFA study were 181 trauma patients (140 males and 41 females).The non-survivors were significantly older than the survivors (51 years ± 20 vs 38 ± 16 years, p < 0.05) and had a higher global SOFA score on admission (8 ± 4 vs 4 ± 3, p < 0.05) and throughout the 10-day stay. On admission, the non-survivors had higher scores for respiratory ( > 3 in 47 % of non-survivors vs 17 % of survivors), cardiovascular ( > 3 in 24 % of non-survivors vs 5.7 % of survivors), and neurological systems ( > 4 in 41 % of non-survivors vs 16 % of survivors); although the trend was maintained over the whole study period, the differences were greater during the first 4–5 days. After the first 4 days, only respiratory dysfunction was significantly related to outcome. A higher SOFA score, admission to the ICU from the same hospital, and the presence of infection on admission were the three major variables associated with a longer length of stay in the ICU (additive regression coefficients: 0.85 days for each SOFA point, 4.4 for admission from the same hospital, 7.26 for infection on admission). Conclusions: The SOFA score can reliably describe organ dysfunction/failure in trauma patients. Regular and repeated scoring may be helpful for identifying categories of patients at major risk of prolonged ICU stay or death. Received: 3 March 1998 Accepted: 21 December 1998     

Determinants of post-intensive care mortality in high-level treated critically ill patients

Objective To assess the predictive ability of preillness and illness variables, impact of care, and discharge variables on the post-intensive care mortality.Setting and patients 5,805 patients treated with high intensity of care in 89 ICUs in 12 European countries (EURICUS-I study) surviving ICU stay.Methods Case-mix was split in training sample (logistic regression model for post-ICU mortality: discrimination assessed by area under ROC curve) and in testing sample. Time to death was studied by Cox regression model validated with bootstrap sampling on the unsplit case-mix.Results There were 5,805 high-intensity patients discharged to ward and 423 who died in hospital. Significant odds ratios were observed for source of admission, medical/surgical unscheduled admission, each year age, each SAPSII point, each consecutive day in high-intensity treatment, and each NEMS point on the last ICU day. Time to death in ward was significantly shortened by different source of admission; age over 78 years, medical/unscheduled surgical admission; SAPSII score without age, comorbidity and type of admission over 16 points; more than 2 days in high-intensity treatment; all days spent in high treatment; respiratory, cardiovascular, and renal support at discharge; and last ICU day NEMS higher than 27 pointsConclusions Worse outcome is associated with the physiological reserve before admission in the ICU, type of illness, intensity of care required, and the clinical stability and/or the grade of nursing dependence at discharge.This study was supported in part, by the Foundation for Research on Intensive Care in Europe (FRICE) and by a grant from the Commission of the European communities (BMH1-CT93-1340)     

The Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS) versus the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score in outcome prediction

OBJECTIVE: To compare outcome prediction using the Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS) and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), two of the systems most commonly used to evaluate organ dysfunction in the intensive care unit (ICU). DESIGN: Prospective, observational study. SETTING: Thirty-one-bed, university hospital ICU. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Nine hundred forty-nine ICU patients. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The MODS and the SOFA score were calculated on admission and every 48 h until ICU discharge. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score was calculated on admission. Areas under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were used to compare initial, 48 h, 96 h, maximum and final scores. Of the 949 patients, 277 died (mortality rate 29.1%). Shock was observed in 329 patients (mortality rate 55.3%). There were no significant differences between the two scores in terms of mortality prediction. Outcome prediction of the APACHE II score was similar to the initial MODS and SOFA score in all patients, and slightly worse in patients with shock. Using the scores' cardiovascular components (CV), outcome prediction was better for the SOFA score at all time intervals (initial AUROC SOFA CV 0.750 vs MODS CV 0.694, p<0.01; 48 h AUROC SOFA CV 0.732 vs MODS CV 0.675, p<0.01; and final AUROC SOFA CV 0.781 vs MODS CV 0.674, p<0.01). The same tendency was observed in patients with shock. There were no significant differences in outcome prediction for the other five organ systems. CONCLUSIONS: MODS and SOFA are reliable outcome predictors. Cardiovascular dysfunction is better related to outcome with the SOFA score than with the MODS.     

Outcomes in critically ill patients with hematologic malignancies who received renal replacement therapy for acute kidney injury in an intensive care unit

Introduction

In critically ill patients with hematologic malignancies, acute kidney injury (AKI) usually occurs in the context of multiple organ failure due to various etiologies and is associated with poor prognosis. The objective of the present study was to identify the prognostic factors associated with intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in patients with hematologic malignancies and AKI requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT).

Methods

We retrospectively evaluated 94 patients with hematologic malignancies and AKI who received RRT in the ICU of Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Korea, between January 2004 and December 2007.

Results

The study sample included 65 men and 29 women with a median age of 49 years (interquartile range [IQR], 36-61 years). The median Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores at ICU admission were 64 (IQR, 46-79) and 13 (IQR, 9-16), respectively. The RRT for AKI was initiated at a median time of 1 day (IQR, 0-4 day) after ICU admission. Seventy-two (77%) patients died in the ICU after a median time of 4 days (IQR, 2-20 days) after the initiation of RRT. Among the 22 patients who survived, 5 (23%) required RRT after ICU discharge. Intensive care unit mortality was associated with an etiology of AKI, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II score, and SOFA score. Modified SOFA (mSOFA) score (defined as the sum of the 5 nonrenal components of the SOFA score) at the initiation of RRT was lower in survivors than in nonsurvivors. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, ICU mortality was independently associated with mSOFA score (odds ratio, 1.83 per mSOFA score increase; 95% confidence interval, 1.38-2.42) at the initiation of RRT. The estimated area under the curve for mSOFA score was 0.902 (95% confidence interval, 0.831-0.972).

Conclusion

The severity of organ failure, excluding renal failure, at initiation of RRT was independently associated with ICU mortality in patients with hematologic malignancies and AKI requiring RRT.     

Recent innovations in intensive care unit risk-prediction models

During the past 20 years, ICU risk-prediction models have undergone significant development, validation, and refinement. Among the general ICU severity of illness scoring systems, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE), Mortality Prediction Model (MPM), and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) have become the most accepted and used. To risk-adjust patients with longer, more severe illnesses like sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome, several models of organ dysfunction or failure have become available, including the Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and the Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score (LODS). Recent innovations in risk adjustment include automatic physiology and diagnostic variable retrieval and the use of artificial intelligence. These innovations have the potential of extending the uses of case-mix and severity-of-illness adjustment in the areas of clinical research, patient care, and administration. The challenges facing intensivists in the next few years are to further develop these models so that they can be used throughout the IUC stay to assess quality of care and to extend them to more specific patient groups such as the elderly and patients with chronic ICU courses.     

C-reactive protein concentration as a predictor of in-hospital mortality after ICU discharge: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to assess the ability of potential clinical predictors and inflammatory markers within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) discharge to predict subsequent in-hospital mortality. DESIGN AND SETTING: A prospective cohort study of 603 consecutive patients who survived their first ICU admission, between 1 June and 31 December 2005, in a 22-bed multidisciplinary ICU of a university hospital. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: A total of 26 in-hospital deaths after ICU discharge (4.3%) were identified. C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations at ICU discharge were associated with subsequent in-hospital mortality in the univariate analysis (mean CRP concentrations of non-survivors=174 vs. survivors=85.6 mg/l, p=0.001). CRP concentrations remained significantly associated with post-ICU mortality (a 10-mg/l increment in CRP concentrations increased the odds ratio [OR] of death: 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-1.16); after adjusting for age, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II predicted mortality, and the Delta Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (Delta SOFA) score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of this multivariate model to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors after ICU discharge was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.73-0.96). The destination and timing of ICU discharge, and the Discharge SOFA score, white cell counts and fibrinogen concentrations at ICU discharge were not significantly associated with in-hospital mortality after ICU discharge. CONCLUSIONS: A high CRP concentration at ICU discharge was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality after ICU discharge in our ICU.     

Critically ill patients readmitted to intensive care units--lessons to learn?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate risk factors in critically ill patients who were readmitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) during their hospital stay. DESIGN: Prospective multicenter cohort study. PATIENTS AND SETTING: A total of 15180 patients discharged from 30 medical, surgical and mixed ICUs in Austria over a 2-year period. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The data analyzed included data on patients' clinical characteristics, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Logistic Organ Dysfunction system (LOD), Simplified Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS-28), length of ICU stay, ICU mortality and hospital mortality. Of the 15180 patients who survived the first ICU stay, 780 patients (5.1%) were readmitted. These patients had more than a fourfold risk of dying during their hospital stay (21.7 vs 5.2%, p<0.001). For mechanically ventilated patients, the time between extubation and discharge during the first ICU stay was significantly shorter for readmitted than for non-readmitted patients (median 1 vs 2 days, p<0.001). On the day of their first ICU discharge, readmitted patients were in greater need of organ support, with more patients still requiring ventilatory, cardiovascular and renal support than non-readmitted patients. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study provide evidence that there exists a group of patients at higher risk of readmission to the ICU. At the time of their first ICU discharge, these patients presented with residual organ dysfunctions, which were associated with an increased risk of being readmitted. Optimizing organ functions in these patients before discharge from the ICU could result in reduced readmission rates.     

Validation of severity scoring systems SAPS II and APACHE II in a single-center population

OBJECTIVE: To validate two severity scoring systems, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), in a single-center ICU population. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective data collection in a two four-bed multidisciplinary ICUs of a teaching hospital. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data were collected in ICU over 4 years on 1,721 consecutively admitted patients (aged 18 years or older, no transferrals, ICU stay at least 24 h) regarding SAPS II, APACHE II, predicted hospital mortality, and survival upon hospital discharge. RESULTS: At the predicted risk of 0.5, sensitivity was 39.4 % for SAPS II and 31.6 % for APACHE II, specificity 95.6 % and 97.2 %, and correct classification rate 85.6 % and 85.5 %, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was higher than 0.8 for both models. The goodness-of-fit statistic showed no significant difference between observed and predicted hospital mortality (H = 7.62 for SAPS II, H = 3.87 for APACHE II; and C = 9.32 and C = 5.05, respectively). Observed hospital mortality of patients with risk of death higher than 60 % was overpredicted by SAPS II and underpredicted by APACHE II. The observed hospital mortality was significantly higher than that predicted by the models in medical patients and in those admitted from the ward. CONCLUSIONS: This study validates both SAPS II and APACHE II scores in an ICU population comprised mainly of surgical patients. The type of ICU admission and the location in the hospital before ICU admission influence the predictive ability of the models.     

不同风险评估系统和炎性指标对重症老年机械通气患者撤机结果的预测价值

目的探讨不同风险评估系统及炎性指标对重症老年机械通气患者撤机结果的预测价值分析。方法选取四川省达州市中西医结合医院2016年10月-2018年12月ICU收治的136例需要机械通气的老年患者作为研究对象,于撤机前对所有患者进行APACHE II、SAPS II、MODS、SOFA、CPIS风险评估,并检测患者血清炎性指标(PCT、CRP、PTX-3、HRG)。按拔管结果分为撤机成功组和撤机困难组,使用ROC曲线分析各风险评估系统结果及炎性指标对拔管结果预测的敏感性及特异性。结果撤机成功76例,失败60例。撤机成功组APACHE II、SAPS II、MODS、SOFA、CPIS等评分均显著低于撤机困难组,组间比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);风险评估系统APACHE II、SAPS II、MODS、SOFA、CPIS预测机械通气的ICU患者预后情况均具有较高效能,其中SAPS II的AUC值较高,其cut-off值为26.63,敏感性为89.53%,特异性为85.05%。炎性指标PCT、CRP、PTX-3、HRG预测机械通气的ICU患者预后情况均具有较高效能,其中PTX-3的AUC值最大,显著高于其它各指标(P<0.05),其cut-off值为33.82,敏感性为68.42%,特异性为93.33%。SAPS II评分和PTX-3作为联合指标预测机械通气的ICU患者预后的敏感度为94.74%,特异度为86.67%。结论风险评估系统APACHE II、SAPS II、MODS、SOFA、CPIS均可用于预测机械通气的ICU患者预后,其中SAPS II较优。炎性指标PTX-3预测机械通气的ICU患者预后效果好,优于PCT、CRP、HRG等指标。SAPS II评分联合PTX-3预测老年机械通气的ICU患者预后效果更佳。