Development and evaluation of a polygenic risk score for lung cancer in never-smoking women: A large-scale prospective Chinese cohort study

The proportion of lung cancer in never smokers is rising, especially among Asian women, but there is no effective early detection tool. Here, we developed a polygenic risk score (PRS), which may help to identify the population with higher risk of lung cancer in never-smoking women. We first performed a large GWAS meta-analysis (8595 cases and 8275 controls) to systematically identify the susceptibility loci for lung cancer in never-smoking Asian women and then generated a PRS using GWAS datasets. Furthermore, we evaluated the utility and effectiveness of PRS in an independent Chinese prospective cohort comprising 55 266 individuals. The GWAS meta-analysis identified eight known loci and a novel locus (5q11.2) at the genome-wide statistical significance level of P < 5 × 10⁻⁸. Based on the summary statistics of GWAS, we derived a polygenic risk score including 21 variants (PRS-21) for lung cancer in never-smoking women. Furthermore, PRS-21 had a hazard ratio (HR) per SD of 1.29 (95% CI = 1.18-1.41) in the prospective cohort. Compared with participants who had a low genetic risk, those with an intermediate (HR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.00-1.72) and high (HR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.56-2.80) genetic risk had a significantly higher risk of incident lung cancer. The addition of PRS-21 to the conventional risk model yielded a modest significant improvement in AUC (0.697 to 0.711) and net reclassification improvement (24.2%). The GWAS-derived PRS-21 significantly improves the risk stratification and prediction accuracy for incident lung cancer in never-smoking Asian women, demonstrating the potential for identification of high-risk individuals and early screening.     

Saturated fatty acid intake,genetic risk and colorectal cancer incidence: A large-scale prospective cohort study

Previous investigations mainly focused on the associations of dietary fatty acids with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, which ignored gene-environment interaction and mechanisms interpretation. We conducted a case-control study (751 cases and 3058 controls) and a prospective cohort study (125 021 participants) to explore the associations between dietary fatty acids, genetic risks, and CRC. Results showed that high intake of saturated fatty acid (SFA) was associated with a higher risk of CRC than low SFA intake (HR =1.22, 95% CI:1.02-1.46). Participants at high genetic risk had a greater risk of CRC with the HR of 2.48 (2.11-2.91) than those at low genetic risk. A multiplicative interaction of genetic risk and SFA intake with incident CRC risk was found (P_Interaction = 7.59 × 10⁻²⁰), demonstrating that participants with high genetic risk and high SFA intake had a 3.75-fold greater risk of CRC than those with low genetic risk and low SFA intake. Furthermore, incorporating PRS and SFA into traditional clinical risk factors improved the discriminatory accuracy for CRC risk stratification (AUC from 0.706 to 0.731). Multi-omics data showed that exposure to SFA-rich high-fat dietary (HFD) can responsively induce epigenome reprogramming of some oncogenes and pathological activation of fatty acid metabolism pathway, which may contribute to CRC development through changes in gut microbiomes, metabolites, and tumor-infiltrating immune cells. These findings suggest that individuals with high genetic risk of CRC may benefit from reducing SFA intake. The incorporation of SFA intake and PRS into traditional clinical risk factors will help improve high-risk sub-populations in individualized CRC prevention.     

结直肠癌伴同时肝转移患者同期切除术后预后风险模型的创建及应用

目的:探讨结直肠癌伴同时肝转移（synchronous colorectal liver metastasis,sCRLM）患者接受原发肿瘤和肝转移灶同期切除术后的预后风险因素,并建立sCRLM术后的预后风险模型。方法:回顾性分析127例在我院接受原发肿瘤和肝转移灶同期切除的sCRLM患者的临床病理学因素,采用单因素和多因素Cox模型分析方法确定总生存期（overall survival,OS）和肝无复发生存时间（recurrence-free survival,RFS）的独立预后因素,根据Cox模型的风险比(hazard ratio,HR）对独立因素赋值,从而建立OS和肝RFS的新预后风险模型。根据新模型将患者分为低、中和高风险组,各组间生存差异采用Log-rank检验。ROC曲线下面积用于比较新风险模型和Fong临床风险评分的预后预测能力。结果:本研究中位随访期23.4个月,多因素Cox分析确定下列4个因素为OS较差的独立预后因素,并根据HR值对各危险因素赋值:原发肿瘤淋巴结转移≥4个（P=0.047,1分）,CEA≥200 ng/ml（P=0.023,2分）,TBS 3~8分（P=0.048,1分）和TBS≥9分（P=0.021,2分）。根据下列标准建立OS的预后风险模型:低风险组（0~1分）、中风险组（2~3分）和高风险组（≥4分）。新风险模型OS的预后预测能力优于Fong临床风险评分（AUC:0.726 vs 0.564)。多因素Cox分析确定下列2个因素为肝RFS较差的独立预后因素,根据HR值赋值如下:肝转移灶双叶分布（P=0.020,1分）和TBS≥9分（P=0.016,2分）。结论:本研究纳入接受同期手术切除的sCRLM患者创建了预后风险模型,用于评估sCRLM患者术后的OS和肝RFS。低风险组患者术后的生存情况（OS和肝RFS）优于高风险组,其预测能力尚需前瞻性临床模型进一步验证。     

Association of screening status,polygenic risk score and environmental risk factors with colorectal cancer incidence and mortality risks

Whether screening can attenuate the influence of genetic risk and environmental risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality risk remains unknown. Our study is to investigate the association of the screening history, genetic risk and environmental risk factors with CRC incidence and mortality risks using UK Biobank data. Screening history was associated with lower CRC incidence (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.58-0.69) and mortality risk (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.49-0.63). Compared to the HRs of participants with a low genetic risk, low environmental risk and no screening history, the HRs of participants with a high genetic risk, high environmental risk and no screening history were 3.42 (95% CI: 2.76-4.24) for CRC incidence and 3.36 (95% CI: 2.48-4.56) for CRC mortality. In contrast, the HRs of participants with a high genetic risk and no screening history, but a low environmental risk, were 1.92 (95% CI: 1.55-2.36) for CRC incidence and 1.88 (95% CI: 1.39-2.53) for CRC mortality. Furthermore, the HRs of participants with a high genetic risk and a low environmental risk, but a screening history were 1.62 (95% CI: 1.15-2.28) for CRC incidence and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.08-2.89) for CRC mortality. Participants benefited more substantially from screenings for CRC mortality than for CRC incidence risk. A higher environmental risk was associated with higher risk of CRC incidence and mortality within each category of genetic risk. These findings emphasize the importance of CRC screening and identifying environmental factors to reduce CRC incidence and mortality risks.     

Evaluation of the aMAP score for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: a realistic opportunity to risk stratify

Background and aims The aMAP score is a model that predicts risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis. Its performance in a ‘real world’ surveillance setting has not yet been ascertained.Patients and methods We had access to a cohort of 3473 individuals enrolled in a rigorously implemented and prospectively accrued surveillance programme (patients undergoing regular ultrasound and biomarker examination between 1998 and 2021). During this period 445 had HCC detected. Of these, 77.8% had early stage disease (within Milan criteria), permitting potentially curative therapy to be implemented in nearly 70% of cases. We applied the recently developed aMAP score to classify patients according to their initial aMAP score in to low, medium and high-risk groups as proposed in the original publication. The performance of the aMAP score was assessed according to the concordance-index and calibration (i.e. agreement between observed and predicted risk). Allowance was made for competing causes of death.Results The aMAP score achieved an overall C-index of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.79–0.82) consistent with the initial report and was unaffected by allowance for competing causes of death. Sub-group analysis showed that the results did not change significantly according to gender, or aetiology. However, aMAP discrimination was greater for younger individuals (versus older individuals), and also for individuals without cirrhosis. The HCC incidence rate was 0.98, 7.05 and 29.1 events per 1000 person-years in the low-, moderate- and high-risk aMAP groups, respectively.Conclusions The results from this ‘real-world’ cohort demonstrate that risk stratification is a realistic prospect and that identification of a subgroup of chronic liver disease patients who have a very low risk of HCC is feasible.Subject terms: Predictive markers, Hepatocellular carcinoma     

Methylation scores for smoking,alcohol consumption and body mass index and risk of seven types of cancer

Methylation marks of exposure to health risk factors may be useful markers of cancer risk as they might better capture current and past exposures than questionnaires, and reflect different individual responses to exposure. We used data from seven case-control studies nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study of blood DNA methylation and risk of colorectal, gastric, kidney, lung, prostate and urothelial cancer, and B-cell lymphoma (N cases = 3123). Methylation scores (MS) for smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption were calculated based on published data as weighted averages of methylation values. Rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals for association with cancer risk were estimated using conditional logistic regression and expressed per SD increase of the MS, with and without adjustment for health-related confounders. The contribution of MS to discriminate cases from controls was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). After confounder adjustment, we observed: large associations (RR = 1.5-1.7) with lung cancer risk for smoking MS; moderate associations (RR = 1.2-1.3) with urothelial cancer risk for smoking MS and with mature B-cell neoplasm risk for BMI and alcohol MS; moderate to small associations (RR = 1.1-1.2) for BMI and alcohol MS with several cancer types and cancer overall. Generally small AUC increases were observed after inclusion of several MS in the same model (colorectal, gastric, kidney, urothelial cancers: +3%; lung cancer: +7%; B-cell neoplasms: +8%). Methylation scores for smoking, BMI and alcohol consumption show independent associations with cancer risk, and may provide some improvements in risk prediction.     

Combinations of single nucleotide polymorphisms identified in genome-wide association studies determine risk for colorectal cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, but whether these SNPs have additive effects on the risk of CRC remains unclear. We performed a systematic analysis of GWAS-identified SNPs using GWAS datasets from China (2,248 patients and 3,173 controls) and Europe (4,461 patients and 4,140 controls). We analyzed 58 independent variants from DNA samples from Chinese populations and found 19 SNPs that were significantly associated with CRC risk. We identified two genetic risk scores (GRSs) based on 58 and 19 SNPs, which were significantly associated with an increased risk of CRC. A decision curve analysis showed higher predictive power for the 58 SNPs. Using all the 58 SNPs to assess 5-year absolute risk (AR), we found that, at a cutoff of 0.4% (two times the median AR) and 0.6% (three times the median AR), approximately 32.76 and 16.45% of Chinese individuals were grouped as high risk for developing CRC, respectively. Risk stratification analysis further indicated that the population in the top 30% risk group accounted for 46.71% of the CRC cases. In addition, the 58 SNPs could explain approximately 1.13% of the phenotypic variance in Chinese populations. Similar findings were found in European populations. Combinations of SNPs identified in GWASs may therefore be useful for identifying individuals at high risk for CRC.     

Recurrence-risk stratification using the Beppu score and selection of perioperative chemotherapy for colorectal liver metastases

The annual postoperative disease-free survival for colorectal liver metastases can be easily estimated by weighting six preoperative clinical parameters (Beppu score). We identified three recurrence-risk stratification groups: the low (≤6 points), moderate (7–10 points), and high-risk (≥11 points). For low-, moderate-, and high-risk patients, hepatectomy alone, hepatectomy with adjuvant chemotherapy, and hepatectomy with preoperative chemotherapy are recommended, respectively. The Beppu score enables the decision on the necessity and timing of perioperative chemotherapy.     

Blood DNA methylation score predicts breast cancer risk: applying OPERA in molecular,environmental, genetic and analytic epidemiology

In this issue, Kresovich and colleagues have published a hallmark paper in Molecular, Environmental, Genetic and Analytic Epidemiology. By applying artificial intelligence to the Sister Study they created a new methylation‐based breast cancer risk score (mBCRS) based on blood DNA methylation. Using a prospective design and after accounting for age and questionnaire‐based breast cancer risk factors, the Odds PER Adjusted standard deviation (OPERA) for mBCRS and polygenic risk score (PRS) was 1.58 (95% CI: 1.38, 1.81) and 1.58 (95% CI: 1.36, 1.83), respectively, and the corresponding area under the receiver operating curve was 0.63 for both. Therefore, mBCRS could be as powerful as the current best PRS in differentiating women of the same age in terms of their breast cancer risk. These risk scores are among the strongest known breast cancer risk‐stratifiers, shaded only by new mammogram risk scores based on measures other than conventional mammographic density, such as Cirrocumulus and Cirrus, which when combined have an OPERA as high as 2.3. The combination of PRS and mBCRS with the other measured risk factors gave an OPERA of 2.2. OPERA has many advantages over changes in areas under the receiver operator curve because the latter depend on the order in which risk factors are considered. Although more replication is needed using prospective data to protect against reverse causation, there are many novel molecular and analytic aspects to this paper which uncovers a potential mechanism for how genetic and environmental factors combine to cause breast cancer.     

Multicentre validation of a clinical prognostic score integrating the systemic inflammatory response to the host for patients treated with curative-intent for colorectal liver metastases: The Liverpool score

BackgroundThis study aimed to create a new prognostic score integrating the systemic inflammatory response to predict survival in patients treated with curative intent for colorectal liver metastases (CLM).MethodsWe identified independent prognostic factors in patients who underwent liver surgery for CLM in a tertiary centre in the United Kingdom (UK) between 2010 and 2015. A pre- and a postoperative score (Liverpool score) were created by combining these factors to stratify patients into different risk groups. These new scores were validated in an international cohort of 219 patients from China and France.ResultsMultivariate cox regression analysis of the 364 patients of the UK cohort identified 6 preoperative and 1 postoperative prognostic factors for overall survival (OS): American society of anaesthesiologists (ASA) score, location and node status of the primary tumour, number and size of CLM, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and resection margin. Both pre- and postoperative scores can be calculated with an online calculator at https://jscalc.io/calc/PXatrmjfrEFpYy2t. Using the pre-operative model on the UK cohort, median OS was 61.22 (50.23, not reached) months in the low-risk group (n = 162) and 30.36 (23.68, 35.95) months in the high-risk group (n = 162, p < 0.0001). The same difference was observed in the validation cohort. The Liverpool score outperformed previously published scoring system with a c-index of 0.619 pre-operatively and of 0.637 post-operatively.ConclusionWe developed a new prognostic score based on clinicopathologic characteristics including the site of the primary tumour location and on measurement of the systemic inflammatory response which could help to tailor patients’ management.     

Establishing a valid approach for estimating familial risk of cancer explained by common genetic variants

We critically examined existing approaches for the estimation of the excess familial risk of cancer that can be attributed to identified common genetic risk variants and propose an alternative, more straightforward approach for calculating this proportion using well-established epidemiological methodology. We applied the underlying equations of the traditional approaches and the new epidemiological approach for colorectal cancer (CRC) in a large population-based case–control study in Germany with 4,447 cases and 3,480 controls, who were recruited from 2003 to 2016 and for whom interview, medical and genomic data were available. Having a family history of CRC (FH) was associated with a 1.77-fold risk increase in our study population (95% CI 1.52–2.07). Traditional approaches yielded estimates of the FH-associated risk explained by 97 common genetics variants from 9.6% to 23.1%, depending on various assumptions. Our alternative approach resulted in smaller and more consistent estimates of this proportion, ranging from 5.4% to 14.3%. Commonly employed methods may lead to strongly divergent and possibly exaggerated estimates of excess familial risk of cancer explained by associated known common genetic variants. Our results suggest that familial risk and risk associated with known common genetic variants might reflect two complementary major sources of risk.     

Identification of subjects at risk of proximal advanced neoplasia for colorectal cancer screening

Flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) and colonoscopy are two commonly used screening tools for colorectal cancer (CRC), and FS mainly detects distal lesions. Colonoscopy resource is limited, yet there is no definite evidence on when flexible sigmoidoscopy is suitable as a screening alternative. This study evaluated the optimal cut-off score from a validated risk stratification system which best predicts proximal advanced neoplasia (PAN) by comparing the sensitivity, specificity and relative risk of PAN according to various cut-off scores. 5819 asymptomatic subjects aged between 50 and 70 years (average age 57.7 years, standard deviation (SD) 4.9) received colonoscopy between 2008 and 2014 in Hong Kong. Their prevalence of PAN was evaluated according to a prediction tool for colorectal neoplasia based on age, gender, smoking status, family history of CRC, body mass index (BMI) and diabetes (ranging from 0 to 6). One binary logistic regression model was performed with PAN as the outcome variable and the risk score as the variable tested for association. In multivariate regression analysis, risk score ⩾3 was associated with significantly higher risk of PAN (3.4–9.1%; AOR = 3.18–8.09, p < 0.001) when compared with those scoring 0. Risk scores 0–2 were associated with either insignificant or lower risks of PAN compared to the overall risk. Applying FS for screening those who scored 0–2 and colonoscopy for those who scored ⩾3 led to a very small proportion of PAN being missed (1.60%), whilst maintaining a high level of specificity (81.9%). Clinicians may use this scoring system to inform subjects and facilitate their choice between colonoscopy and FS.     

A risk score for predicting outcome in patients with gastric cancer,based on stage,sialyl-Tn immunoreactivity and ploidy—a multivariate analysis

Twelve variables were studied for possible prognostic value in 242 patients with adenocarcinoma of the stomach. Eight of these had a statistically significant effect on survival in univariate analyses. A multivariate analysis of 196 patients showed that the most significant differences in survival could be explained by 3 independent variables acting simultaneously, namely stage of disease, Sialyl Tn antigen (STn) expression and aneuploidy of the tumour cells. By adding scores for stage (1–4 points), STn expression (0–1 points) and ploidy (0–1 points) a risk score based on these 3 variables defined the patients into 6 different risk groups with statistically highly significant differences in survival (x² = 107.74, DF = 1, p < 0.0001). Application of the risk score improves the prediction of outcome, may help in choosing patients for different treatment modalities, and allows more accurate stratification in clinical trials. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Comparative yield and efficiency of strategies based on risk assessment and fecal immunochemical test in colorectal cancer screening: A cross-sectional population-based analysis

ObjectiveIntegration of risk stratification into fecal immunochemical test (FIT) might aid in the suboptimal detection of advanced neoplasms by FIT in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. A comparative study was conducted to evaluate the participation and diagnostic yield of the parallel combination of questionnaire-based risk assessment (QRA) and FIT, FIT-only and QRA-only strategies in a CRC screening program in China.MethodsThe study included 29,626 individuals aged 40−74 years and invited to participate in a CRC screening program in China. Participants were first invited to undertake QRA and one-time FIT (OC-sensor). Participants with positive QRA or FIT were deemed to be high-risk individuals who were recommended for subsequent colonoscopy. Participation, detection rate, and resource demand for colonoscopy were calculated and compared.ResultsOf the 29,626 invitees, 20,203 completed the parallel combination, 8,592 completed the QRA-only, and 11 completed the FIT-only strategy. For the parallel combination, FIT-only, and QRA-only strategies, the overall positivity rates were 10.2% (2,928/28,806), 5.4% (1,096/20,214), and 6.8% (1,944/28,795), respectively; the yield of advanced neoplasm per 10,000 invitees were 46.9 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 39.8−55.4], 36.8 (95% CI: 30.5−44.4), and 12.2 (95% CI: 8.8−16.8), respectively; the positive predictive values for detecting advanced neoplasms among participants who completed colonoscopy were 4.7% (95% CI: 4.0%−5.6%), 9.9% (95% CI: 8.3%−11.9%), and 1.9% (95% CI: 1.3%−2.6%), respectively; the number of colonoscopies required to detect one advanced neoplasm was 11.4 (95% CI: 9.8−13.4), 5.7 (95% CI: 4.8−6.7), and 28.4 (95% CI: 20.7−39.2), respectively.ConclusionsThe parallel combination of QRA and FIT did not show superior efficacy for detecting advanced neoplasm compared with FIT alone in this CRC screening program.     

A polygenic risk score for breast cancer risk in a Taiwanese population

Background

Multiple common variants identified by genome-wide association studies showed limited evidence of the risk of breast cancer in Taiwan. In this study, we analyzed the breast cancer risk in relation to 13 individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified by a GWAS in an Asian population.

Methods

In total, 446 breast cancer patients and 514 healthy controls were recruited for this case–control study. In addition, we developed a polygenic risk score (PRS) including those variants significantly associated with breast cancer risk, and also evaluated the contribution of PRS and clinical risk factors to breast cancer using receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

Logistic regression results showed that nine individual SNPs were significantly associated with breast cancer risk after multiple testing. Among all SNPs, six variants, namely FGFR2 (rs2981582), HCN1 (rs981782), MAP3K1 (rs889312), TOX3 (rs3803662), ZNF365 (rs10822013), and RAD51B (rs3784099), were selected to create PRS model. A dose–response association was observed between breast cancer risk and the PRS. Women in the highest quartile of PRS had a significantly increased risk compared to women in the lowest quartile (odds ratio 2.26; 95% confidence interval 1.51–3.38). The AUC for a model which contained the PRS in addition to clinical risk factors was 66.52%, whereas that for a model which with established risk factors only was 63.38%.

Conclusions

Our data identified a genetic risk predictor of breast cancer in Taiwanese population and suggest that risk models including PRS and clinical risk factors are useful in discriminating women at high risk of breast cancer from those at low risk.

     

Family history and environmental risk factors for colon cancer.

BACKGROUND: We analyzed the joint effect of environmental risk factors and family history of colorectal cancer on colon cancer. METHODS: We used data from a case-control study conducted in northern Italy between 1992 and 1996 including 1225 cases with colon cancer and 4154 controls. We created a weighed risk factor score for the main environmental risk factors in this population (positive family history, high education, low occupational physical activity, high daily meal frequency, low intake of fiber, low intake of calcium, and low intake of beta-carotene). RESULTS: Compared with the reference category (subjects with no family history of colorectal cancer and in the lowest tertile of the risk factor score), the odds ratios of colon cancer were 2.27 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.89-2.73] for subjects without family history and in the highest environmental risk factor score, 3.20 (95% CI = 2.05-5.01) for those with family history and low risk factor score, and 7.08 (95% CI = 4.68-10.71) for those with family history and high risk factor score. The pattern of risk was similar for men and women and no meaningful differences emerged according to subsite within the colon. CONCLUSIONS: Family history of colorectal cancer interacts with environmental risk factors of colon cancer.     

Plasma C-reactive protein, genetic risk score, and risk of common cancers in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

Purpose

Many studies, including the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort, reported a positive association between plasma C-reactive protein (CRP)—a biomarker of low-grade chronic inflammation—and colorectal cancer risk, although it is unclear whether the association is causal. Our aims were to assess the associations of a CRP genetic risk score (CRP-GRS) created from single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with colorectal cancer risk, as well as examine plasma CRP and CRP-GRS in relation to common cancers in the ARIC cohort.

Methods

Cox proportional hazards models were used to prospectively estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) of total, colorectal, lung, prostate, and breast cancers in relation to: (1) CRP-GRS among 8,657 Whites followed in 1987–2006 and (2) log-transformed plasma CRP among 7,603 Whites followed in 1996–2006. A weighted CRP-GRS was comprised of 20 CRP-related SNPs located in/near CRP, APOC1, HNF1A, LEPR, and 16 other genes that were identified in genome-wide association studies.

Results

After multivariable adjustment, one standard deviation increment of the CRP-GRS was associated with colorectal cancer risk (HR 1.19; 95 % CI 1.03–1.37), but not with any other cancer. One unit of log-transformed plasma CRP was associated with the risk of total, colorectal, lung, and breast cancers: HRs (95 % CIs) were 1.08 (1.01–1.15), 1.24 (1.01–1.51), 1.29 (1.08–1.54), and 1.27 (1.07–1.51), respectively. HRs remained elevated, although lost statistical significance for all but breast cancer, after excluding subjects with <2 years of follow-up.

Conclusions

The study corroborates a causative role of chronic low-grade inflammation in colorectal carcinogenesis.     

New prognostic risk score for predicting in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery: U.S. Nationwide Inpatient Sample analysis

ObjectivesTo develop a new prognostic risk score index for predicting in-hospital mortality in geriatric patients undergoing colorectal cancer resection.Participants and methodsA retrospective study included 111,976 patients with colorectal cancer who were ≥ 65 years of age and underwent resection. The records were extracted from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database between 2005 and 2014. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to determine the associations of in-hospital mortality and demographics, number of comorbidities, clinical and hospital-related characteristics. A prognostic risk score index on in-hospital mortality was established based on the odds ratios of the significant factors.Results30 points were distributed across the identified predictors of in-hospital mortality. Emergent admission had the greatest impact on mortality (adjusted OR = 3.01) and received the highest ranking with 7 points. The odds were followed by age ≥85 years old and number of comorbidities ≥3 (adjusted OR = 2.58 and 1.99, respectively), which received a rank of 5 points. The other elements of the risk score index were age 75–84 (4 points), male (3 points), tumor located in the colon or with distant metastasis (2 points), and with two comorbidities or socioeconomic status <Q4 (1 point).ConclusionThis study proposes a novel risk score index for predicting in-hospital mortality in geriatric colorectal cancer patients undergoing resection. This risk score may be helpful for clinicians in decision-making and risk stratification at the pre-surgical phase.     

The associations between a polygenic score, reproductive and menstrual risk factors and breast cancer risk

We evaluated whether 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in genome-wide association studies interact with one another and with reproductive and menstrual risk factors in association with breast cancer risk. DNA samples and information on parity, breastfeeding, age at menarche, age at first birth, and age at menopause were collected through structured interviews from 1,484 breast cancer cases and 1,307 controls who participated in a population-based case–control study conducted in three US states. A polygenic score was created as the sum of risk allele copies multiplied by the corresponding log odds estimate. Logistic regression was used to test the associations between SNPs, the score, reproductive and menstrual factors, and breast cancer risk. Nonlinearity of the score was assessed by the inclusion of a quadratic term for polygenic score. Interactions between the aforementioned variables were tested by including a cross-product term in models. We confirmed associations between rs13387042 (2q35), rs4973768 (SLC4A7), rs10941679 (5p12), rs2981582 (FGFR2), rs3817198 (LSP1), rs3803662 (TOX3), and rs6504950 (STXBP4) with breast cancer. Women in the score’s highest quintile had 2.2-fold increased risk when compared to women in the lowest quintile (95 % confidence interval: 1.67–2.88). The quadratic polygenic score term was not significant in the model (p = 0.85), suggesting that the established breast cancer loci are not associated with increased risk more than the sum of risk alleles. Modifications of menstrual and reproductive risk factors associations with breast cancer risk by polygenic score were not observed. Our results suggest that the interactions between breast cancer susceptibility loci and reproductive factors are not strong contributors to breast cancer risk.     

Association between antibiotic use during early life and early-onset colorectal cancer risk overall and according to polygenic risk and FUT2 genotypes

Early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) has been increasing worldwide. Potential risk factors may have occurred in childhood or adolescence. We investigated the associations between early-life factors and EOCRC risk, with a particular focus on long-term or recurrent antibiotic use (LRAU) and its interaction with genetic factors. Data on the UK Biobank participants recruited between 2006 and 2010 and followed up to February 2022 were used. We used logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of the associations between LRAU during early life and EOCRC risk overall and by polygenic risk score (constructed by 127 CRC-related genetic variants) and Fucosyltransferase 2 (FUT2), a gut microbiota regulatory gene. We also assessed the associations for early-onset colorectal adenomas, as precursor lesion of CRC, to examine the effect of LRAU during early-life and genetic factors on colorectal carcinogenesis. A total of 113 256 participants were included in the analysis, with 165 EOCRC cases and 719 EOCRA cases. LRAU was nominally associated with increased risk of early-onset CRC (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.01-2.17, P = .046) and adenomas (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.17-1.68, P < .001). When stratified by genetic polymorphisms of FUT2, LRAU appeared to confer a comparatively greater risk for early-onset adenomas among participants with rs281377 TT genotype (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 0.79-1.52, P = .587, for CC genotype; OR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.16-2.64, P = .008, for TT genotype; P_interaction = .089). Our study suggested that LRAU during early life is associated with increased risk of early-onset CRC and adenomas, and the association for adenomas is predominant among individuals with rs281377 TT/CT genotype. Further studies investigating how LRAU contributes together with genetic factors to modify EOCRC risk, particularly concerning the microbiome-related pathway underlying colorectal carcinogenesis, are warranted.